Who is Due to Hit the Wall Soon? (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

in valuing players for draft/trade purposes, it is nice to have players that seem to fade gradually...

ray lewis may fall into this category... not what he was even 3-4 years ago, he continues to play at a high level, and owner's have a fairly good sense of what to expect in next few years... whether better teams opting to use him up and help towards a championship, or in the case of less competitive teams moving him to secure value while they still can...

keith bulluck is an interesting case, as he is 31 & coming off a season that was by his standards grotesque statistically... yet he seemed to play fast in 2007 (5 INTs), and his drop off may have had less to do with an encroachment of diminishing skills, than that he was surrounded by able, talented and voracious tacklers in run support. Of course, since that factor remains, it needs to be incorporated into his ultimate valuation...

the nightmare scenario is when players are playing at a high level and all of a sudden hit the wall hard and become essentially worthless and untradeable... priest holmes hit pretty hard & fast (same with shaun alexander)... some of this list will be fed by the usual positional age concerns (30+ is old for nearly all RBs... edgerrin james is at or near this threshold)... but i'm also interested in observations related to injuries, & especially those gleaned from scouting & eye-witness type related to players looking old, slow or otherwise used up...

on defense, jamie sharper seemed to be great for a few years than aged very quickly...

on offense, rudi johnson & marvin harrison could be ready to hit the wall... johnson was recently reported as looking faster than seen recently, but is coming off a few bad years, was never that explosive to start with, had a violent, high contact style & could be close to the RB glue factory...

harrison was playing fast & at a very high level before multiple recent knee injuries, but he is at an age (36?) when it wouldn't be a huge surprise if his rate of disintegration accelerated from this point, especially if the knee injuries linger...

 

[Bri]

Rudi's younger than most seem to think

Holt, TO, and at least one of NE's LBers would be my guess

 

[Tanner9919]

almost all of NE's LB's.

Ahman Green, Engram, Marvin, Bulger, Tony Gonzalez, Toomer, T.O.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

add Edge, Fred Taylor to the RB list

add Galloway, Bruce, Muhammad to the WR list

 

[Lash]

""johnson was recently reported as looking faster than seen recently, but is coming off ONE a few bad years""

fixed

 

[Lash]

Kitna

 

[BigTex]

""johnson was recently reported as looking faster than seen recently, but is coming off ONE a few bad years""

fixed

 

[buck naked]

IMO, definitely Terrell Owens.

Age and breakdown happens to everybody (even Marvin Harrison), so it will happen to him.

Is the chance 10% of it happening to him this year? 20%? Higher? It is high enough for me to push him below other guys ranked in the same tier.

 

[sholditch]

LT

I am going to try and trade Bulluck for a younger stud. I fear for the worst.

You're about 2 years too late on Ray Lewis.

Is Zach Thomas playing for anyone or did he retire? IF so he went out on top of his game.

 

[saintfool]

LT

I am going to try and trade Bulluck for a younger stud. I fear for the worst.

You're about 2 years too late on Ray Lewis.

Is Zach Thomas playing for anyone or did he retire? IF so he went out on top of his game.

i believe he signed with the cowboys.

 

[sholditch]

LT

I am going to try and trade Bulluck for a younger stud. I fear for the worst.

You're about 2 years too late on Ray Lewis.

Is Zach Thomas playing for anyone or did he retire? IF so he went out on top of his game.

i believe he signed with the cowboys.

And with that, Dallas is officially my target DST this year. Man, if Pacman plays they are going to be lights out.

 

[trader jake]

Donald Driver

Some doubters will already lower his value without Brett Favre around (?) while some supporters will mention last season's stats or his big play in the NFC Championship game. As a Packer fan I couldn't help but notice a gradual slowing in his game speed last season. Nothing that will cause him to fall off a cliff fantasy wise but enough to drop him to the bottom of his current tier or even lowered one on my draft board. Just my 2 cents.

 

[LILB811]

IMO, definitely Terrell Owens. Age and breakdown happens to everybody (even Marvin Harrison), so it will happen to him.Is the chance 10% of it happening to him this year? 20%? Higher? It is high enough for me to push him below other guys ranked in the same tier.

I've seen TO mentioned 3 times in this thread already. His TD per game in each season since 2000 has been .93, 1, .93, .6, 1, .86, .82, 1. Those numbers over a 16 game season equal 15, 16, 15, 10, 16, 14, 13, 16 TD's. He hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2004 when Roy Williams horsecollared him and broke his leg. At 34, physically Owens is in better shape than I'd say 95% of the players in the league. I think to rank him lower than a Braylon, Steve Smith, or Chad for this year strictly because he is 34 would be a mistake.

 

[ukshane]

In before Fred Taylor

 

[texasheat]

IMO, definitely Terrell Owens. Age and breakdown happens to everybody (even Marvin Harrison), so it will happen to him.Is the chance 10% of it happening to him this year? 20%? Higher? It is high enough for me to push him below other guys ranked in the same tier.

I've seen TO mentioned 3 times in this thread already. His TD per game in each season since 2000 has been .93, 1, .93, .6, 1, .86, .82, 1. Those numbers over a 16 game season equal 15, 16, 15, 10, 16, 14, 13, 16 TD's. He hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2004 when Roy Williams horsecollared him and broke his leg. At 34, physically Owens is in better shape than I'd say 95% of the players in the league. I think to rank him lower than a Braylon, Steve Smith, or Chad for this year strictly because he is 34 would be a mistake.

Putting TO on this list is most likely wishful thinking for many posters.

 

[Bob Magaw]

""johnson was recently reported as looking faster than seen recently, but is coming off ONE a few bad years""

fixed

i stand corrected...i had him on my fantasy team for the first time ever last year, & it was such a long season i guess it just SEEMED like longer...

i have to agree with those that don't see TO as a prime example here... while by age it would be almost automatic to include him here (& he does have to slow down at SOME point), he sure has played fast in recent years... also agreed that by taking such great care of his body & being a workout fanatic, his functional age is probably far lower than his chronological age, & he is probably in better shape than the vast majority of "younger" WRs in the league...

 

[EBF]

Terrell Owens

Fred Taylor

Jamal Lewis

Edgerrin James

I don't think LT and Westbrook have more than 2-3 elite years left, but I'm not sure if I'd put either on my sell list.

TJ Housh will suffer a value dip if either he or Chad leaves town. His production is largely due to his situation. In a lesser situation he'd be a McCardell type.

 

[buck naked]

IMO, definitely Terrell Owens. Age and breakdown happens to everybody (even Marvin Harrison), so it will happen to him.Is the chance 10% of it happening to him this year? 20%? Higher? It is high enough for me to push him below other guys ranked in the same tier.

I've seen TO mentioned 3 times in this thread already. His TD per game in each season since 2000 has been .93, 1, .93, .6, 1, .86, .82, 1. Those numbers over a 16 game season equal 15, 16, 15, 10, 16, 14, 13, 16 TD's. He hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2004 when Roy Williams horsecollared him and broke his leg. At 34, physically Owens is in better shape than I'd say 95% of the players in the league. I think to rank him lower than a Braylon, Steve Smith, or Chad for this year strictly because he is 34 would be a mistake.

You might be right. I agree that he seems to be in great shape. But TO cannot forestall the inevitable. It is coming. The likelihood that it happens to him rises dramatically every single year. Harrison was the absolute model of consistency every year....until last year. It happens to all the consistent producers - Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, etc. I, for one, will take the younger WR on the same tier. I do not intend to be the guy who has Owens when he does hit the wall.By the way, citing his stats from 2000 does not help your point. He was 27 at that age. Even from 2003, when he was 30.

 

[buck naked]

You also cannot tell me that TO has NOT lost some speed. You could see last year that he not quite as fast as he used to be.

 

[Bob Magaw]

You also cannot tell me that TO has NOT lost some speed. You could see last year that he not quite as fast as he used to be.

yet he remained fast enough to be easily one of the top 2-3 WRs in the league... unless there is reason to suspect a much more severe loss of speed in the immediate future, it is unclear why he should be given a drastically different projection in 2008 than he did last season?and for the record, not sure i did notice a discernible drop in speed... he never was a 4.4 guy... for that matter, neither was rice... but they both had/have fantastic short area burst & acceleration, which helps them get separation & run away from "faster" defenders...

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Edge is the first one that comes to my mind. I think he takes a Shaun Alexander nosedive.

 

[mggoilers]

Edge takes very good care of himself, and outside of the uniform change, having some instability at QB, and 2 different offenses over the last 2 years...he looks the same physically as he did 3-5 years ago. Still leaning forward

It's coming, but I believe he has a nice year in 2008. he probably then shares the load in 2009.

 

[LILB811]

IMO, definitely Terrell Owens. Age and breakdown happens to everybody (even Marvin Harrison), so it will happen to him.Is the chance 10% of it happening to him this year? 20%? Higher? It is high enough for me to push him below other guys ranked in the same tier.

I've seen TO mentioned 3 times in this thread already. His TD per game in each season since 2000 has been .93, 1, .93, .6, 1, .86, .82, 1. Those numbers over a 16 game season equal 15, 16, 15, 10, 16, 14, 13, 16 TD's. He hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2004 when Roy Williams horsecollared him and broke his leg. At 34, physically Owens is in better shape than I'd say 95% of the players in the league. I think to rank him lower than a Braylon, Steve Smith, or Chad for this year strictly because he is 34 would be a mistake.

You might be right. I agree that he seems to be in great shape. But TO cannot forestall the inevitable. It is coming. The likelihood that it happens to him rises dramatically every single year. Harrison was the absolute model of consistency every year....until last year. It happens to all the consistent producers - Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, etc. I, for one, will take the younger WR on the same tier. I do not intend to be the guy who has Owens when he does hit the wall.By the way, citing his stats from 2000 does not help your point. He was 27 at that age. Even from 2003, when he was 30.

To each his own, and that is the benefit of tiering when making up your draft list to be able to take a comparable player. Yes TO is 34 years old. Yes he will not be playing for too many more years. But other than that number, nothing he has done on or off the field has indicated that he will all of a sudden start to be a different player. Harrison had an injury last year. He didn’t just lose his skill set out of the blue. Going into last season I would’ve taken Harrison because there’s no way to forecast injury. I have not seen any data that indicates that older players are more prone to injury, but the fact that TO has taken such good care of himself physically I think will keep him productive longer than guys that are younger than him, let alone this season.My citation of the older data was simply to point out that his production in recent years has been just as good as his production in his early years, very consistently. If the guy gets hurt, he gets hurt, but I think he’s as good a bet as anyone to have a top 5 season.

 

[buck naked]

You also cannot tell me that TO has NOT lost some speed. You could see last year that he not quite as fast as he used to be.

yet he remained fast enough to be easily one of the top 2-3 WRs in the league... unless there is reason to suspect a much more severe loss of speed in the immediate future, it is unclear why he should be given a drastically different projection in 2008 than he did last season?and for the record, not sure i did notice a discernible drop in speed... he never was a 4.4 guy... for that matter, neither was rice... but they both had/have fantastic short area burst & acceleration, which helps them get separation & run away from "faster" defenders...

So, we should expect no loss from Owens whatsoever? Is it your opinion that there is no probability that will occur?I would not drastically change the projection for TO. But there must be some change. He is not going to produce like that every year. My point is that the likelihood of it happening is obviously higher than with someone like B. Edwards. Why then would I accept that additional risk if the projections for each player are close? I cannot take the risk of losing even 20 fantasy points in the leagues I play in. I rode Owens to $5,000 in the NFFC last year. He clearly was one of the best WR's last year. But I cannot count on that happening consistently anymore with a guy 34 or 35 years old.

 

[Gopher State]

T.O. age is against him

Edge

J. Lewis

J. Walker injuries and off the field issues

HIT THE WALL Alexander, Kevin Jones, C. Benson, due to various reasons

 

[-OZ-]

IMO, definitely Terrell Owens. Age and breakdown happens to everybody (even Marvin Harrison), so it will happen to him.Is the chance 10% of it happening to him this year? 20%? Higher? It is high enough for me to push him below other guys ranked in the same tier.

I've seen TO mentioned 3 times in this thread already. His TD per game in each season since 2000 has been .93, 1, .93, .6, 1, .86, .82, 1. Those numbers over a 16 game season equal 15, 16, 15, 10, 16, 14, 13, 16 TD's. He hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2004 when Roy Williams horsecollared him and broke his leg. At 34, physically Owens is in better shape than I'd say 95% of the players in the league. I think to rank him lower than a Braylon, Steve Smith, or Chad for this year strictly because he is 34 would be a mistake.

You might be right. I agree that he seems to be in great shape. But TO cannot forestall the inevitable. It is coming. The likelihood that it happens to him rises dramatically every single year. Harrison was the absolute model of consistency every year....until last year. It happens to all the consistent producers - Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, etc. I, for one, will take the younger WR on the same tier. I do not intend to be the guy who has Owens when he does hit the wall.By the way, citing his stats from 2000 does not help your point. He was 27 at that age. Even from 2003, when he was 30.

I'd be interested in seeing the stats on WRs who produce top 5 stats for a year vs. those who have produced for a long time and are close to TO's age, as far as the next year's drop off. It's easy to say you'll stay away from TO and take a guy like Braylon instead, but the same logic could have been used to take David Boston over Marvin Harrison a few years back.

 

[Sweet Love]

I think either Edge or Rudi hits the wall this year...but the one tat does not, will be a huge value play (just not sure which one). Rudi had one bad year (due to injury) and a lot are writing him off. He only has 1550 touches in the NFL and basically had two years off when he entered the league (at 22). Jamal Lewis on the other hand, entered the league a year earlier (they are the same age), and has over 2300 touches. Now, not all bodies are created equal, but if I were to just look at body types and throw the touches out the window, I would still think Lewis would break down at an earlier age.

 

[Raider Nation]

Edge takes very good care of himself, and outside of the uniform change, having some instability at QB, and 2 different offenses over the last 2 years...he looks the same physically as he did 3-5 years ago. Still leaning forward

I've owned him the past two years. I can't remember another guy getting STUFFED so many times inside the 2.I don't know whether to blame him or the O-line.

 

[Raider Nation]

LT

Yep. 2,823 touches in seven years, and coming off a serious injury.Most RBs have a shelf life of what, four years?

 

[alg]

in valuing players for draft/trade purposes, it is nice to have players that seem to fade gradually...ray lewis may fall into this category... not what he was even 3-4 years ago, he continues to play at a high level, and owner's have a fairly good sense of what to expect in next few years... whether better teams opting to use him up and help towards a championship, or in the case of less competitive teams moving him to secure value while they still can...keith bulluck is an interesting case, as he is 31 & coming off a season that was by his standards grotesque statistically... yet he seemed to play fast in 2007 (5 INTs), and his drop off may have had less to do with an encroachment of diminishing skills, than that he was surrounded by able, talented and voracious tacklers in run support. Of course, since that factor remains, it needs to be incorporated into his ultimate valuation...the nightmare scenario is when players are playing at a high level and all of a sudden hit the wall hard and become essentially worthless and untradeable... priest holmes hit pretty hard & fast (same with shaun alexander)... some of this list will be fed by the usual positional age concerns (30+ is old for nearly all RBs... edgerrin james is at or near this threshold)... but i'm also interested in observations related to injuries, & especially those gleaned from scouting & eye-witness type related to players looking old, slow or otherwise used up...on defense, jamie sharper seemed to be great for a few years than aged very quickly... on offense, rudi johnson & marvin harrison could be ready to hit the wall... johnson was recently reported as looking faster than seen recently, but is coming off a few bad years, was never that explosive to start with, had a violent, high contact style & could be close to the RB glue factory...harrison was playing fast & at a very high level before multiple recent knee injuries, but he is at an age (36?) when it wouldn't be a huge surprise if his rate of disintegration accelerated from this point, especially if the knee injuries linger...

The problem with your list (in a dynasty) is that it is already too late to get anything for those guys. An owner has to ask that question much sooner in a dynasty IMO. That's why I chuckle when someone puts a guy like TO in his top 5 dynasty list.LT2 should be the first guy on this list. He is a productive player on the cusp of 30. Yet he is still top 3 on some dynasty lists. In 2 years he will be an afterthought, and the window for trade value would have vanished.

 

[frank_da_tank]

Hines ward

McNabb

Mcallister

 

[moderated]

No real comment, but i've followed Magaw for some time and his analysis is the ####.

Much props to you Mr Magaw.

 

[SSOG]

IMO, definitely Terrell Owens. Age and breakdown happens to everybody (even Marvin Harrison), so it will happen to him.Is the chance 10% of it happening to him this year? 20%? Higher? It is high enough for me to push him below other guys ranked in the same tier.

I've seen TO mentioned 3 times in this thread already. His TD per game in each season since 2000 has been .93, 1, .93, .6, 1, .86, .82, 1. Those numbers over a 16 game season equal 15, 16, 15, 10, 16, 14, 13, 16 TD's. He hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2004 when Roy Williams horsecollared him and broke his leg. At 34, physically Owens is in better shape than I'd say 95% of the players in the league. I think to rank him lower than a Braylon, Steve Smith, or Chad for this year strictly because he is 34 would be a mistake.

I don't think you understand the concept of hitting the wall. Hitting the wall means playing at a high level until suddenly and unexpectedly you fall off dramatically. Pointing out Terrell Owens' high production doesn't show he's immune to hitting the wall, it just reinforces the fact that he's a candidate to do so. I mean, if his production was gradually tapering off over time, then he wouldn't be hitting the wall, would he?

The problem with your list (in a dynasty) is that it is already too late to get anything for those guys. An owner has to ask that question much sooner in a dynasty IMO. That's why I chuckle when someone puts a guy like TO in his top 5 dynasty list.LT2 should be the first guy on this list. He is a productive player on the cusp of 30. Yet he is still top 3 on some dynasty lists. In 2 years he will be an afterthought, and the window for trade value would have vanished.

It's not at all too late to get something for Owens. There are owners in every league that continue to value him as a top-5 or top-10 Wide Receiver. I personally moved him this offseason for Antonio Gates, straight up.

 

[KingAlfred]

Brett Favre

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

IMO, definitely Terrell Owens. Age and breakdown happens to everybody (even Marvin Harrison), so it will happen to him.Is the chance 10% of it happening to him this year? 20%? Higher? It is high enough for me to push him below other guys ranked in the same tier.

IMO, there's only one other player in the same tier as TO and that's Moss, so I guess I'd agree with you in ranking him lower than him.

 

[LILB811]

I don't think you understand the concept of hitting the wall. Hitting the wall means playing at a high level until suddenly and unexpectedly you fall off dramatically. Pointing out Terrell Owens' high production doesn't show he's immune to hitting the wall, it just reinforces the fact that he's a candidate to do so. I mean, if his production was gradually tapering off over time, then he wouldn't be hitting the wall, would he?

So would you agree or disagree that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Hasselbeck, Randy Moss, and Plaxico Burress' consistent production and age reinforce the fact that they're also candidates to hit the wall soon? I haven't seen their names mentioned yet.

 

[Dirk Digler]

a lot of these seem to be cattle call choices for wall candidates... by that I mean pretty obvious choices...

Let's talk about outta no where wall bangers and less than obvious choices...

IMO, Brian Westbrook & Willis McGahee are on a crash course for the wall.

 

[wonderdork]

Earl Campbell. Too much wear on the tires. And he is on the wrong side of 30.

 

[EBF]

Earl Campbell. Too much wear on the tires. And he is on the wrong side of 30.

You don't trade your studs. Period.

 

[SSOG]

I don't think you understand the concept of hitting the wall. Hitting the wall means playing at a high level until suddenly and unexpectedly you fall off dramatically. Pointing out Terrell Owens' high production doesn't show he's immune to hitting the wall, it just reinforces the fact that he's a candidate to do so. I mean, if his production was gradually tapering off over time, then he wouldn't be hitting the wall, would he?

So would you agree or disagree that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Hasselbeck, Randy Moss, and Plaxico Burress' consistent production and age reinforce the fact that they're also candidates to hit the wall soon? I haven't seen their names mentioned yet.

I would strongly disagree. If they were RBs, maybe, but not WRs and QBs. Generally, WRs hit the age wall sometime around 34+ (Moss and Burress will both be 31 to start next season). I haven't really seen any QB wall (elite QBs such as Elway and Favre age like fine wines, and even journeymen like Gannon and Brad Johnson can continue to play at a high level well beyond any players at any other position other than kickers), but even if there is one, there's no way in hell that Peyton Manning (32), Tom Brady (31), or Matt Hasselbeck (33) are anywhere NEAR it yet. I'd say that any discussion of any of these five players hitting the wall is at LEAST 3 years premature.

 

[LILB811]

I don't think you understand the concept of hitting the wall. Hitting the wall means playing at a high level until suddenly and unexpectedly you fall off dramatically. Pointing out Terrell Owens' high production doesn't show he's immune to hitting the wall, it just reinforces the fact that he's a candidate to do so. I mean, if his production was gradually tapering off over time, then he wouldn't be hitting the wall, would he?

So would you agree or disagree that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Hasselbeck, Randy Moss, and Plaxico Burress' consistent production and age reinforce the fact that they're also candidates to hit the wall soon? I haven't seen their names mentioned yet.

I would strongly disagree. If they were RBs, maybe, but not WRs and QBs. Generally, WRs hit the age wall sometime around 34+ (Moss and Burress will both be 31 to start next season). I haven't really seen any QB wall (elite QBs such as Elway and Favre age like fine wines, and even journeymen like Gannon and Brad Johnson can continue to play at a high level well beyond any players at any other position other than kickers), but even if there is one, there's no way in hell that Peyton Manning (32), Tom Brady (31), or Matt Hasselbeck (33) are anywhere NEAR it yet. I'd say that any discussion of any of these five players hitting the wall is at LEAST 3 years premature.

I agree completely with you, but what I mentioned in my original point about Owens was summed up nicely in the following....

i have to agree with those that don't see TO as a prime example here... while by age it would be almost automatic to include him here (& he does have to slow down at SOME point), he sure has played fast in recent years... also agreed that by taking such great care of his body & being a workout fanatic, his functional age is probably far lower than his chronological age, & he is probably in better shape than the vast majority of "younger" WRs in the league...

Does the bolded not have to be taken into account? I'd be willing to wager that the amount of elite seasons TO has left is not much different, if at all, than Burress or Moss. I believe TO is the exception, obviously, and not the rule.

 

[Burning Sensation]

LT, yeah i know he is great, but he is bucking 30, and starting showing signs of wear last year. He is still a top 3 pick in redraft, but his value is going to take a huge hit in dynasty leagues over the next 12 months.

 

[SSOG]

I agree completely with you, but what I mentioned in my original point about Owens was summed up nicely in the following....

i have to agree with those that don't see TO as a prime example here... while by age it would be almost automatic to include him here (& he does have to slow down at SOME point), he sure has played fast in recent years... also agreed that by taking such great care of his body & being a workout fanatic, his functional age is probably far lower than his chronological age, & he is probably in better shape than the vast majority of "younger" WRs in the league...

Does the bolded not have to be taken into account? I'd be willing to wager that the amount of elite seasons TO has left is not much different, if at all, than Burress or Moss. I believe TO is the exception, obviously, and not the rule.

I don't think so, no. So far, in all of NFL history, there has been ONE exception- Jerry Rice. Lots of WRs have taken unbelievable care of their bodies- look at Rod Smith, for instance. Shanahan has said that Rod Smith is the only player he's ever worked with who had never missed a single workout or team activity for any reason. Rod Smith still hit the wall HARD, falling from 85/1105/6 and a pro bowl berth to 52/512/3 from one year to the next. Lots and lots of WRs in NFL history have taken great care of themselves, and only ONCE has a WR defied the wall. I'm going to need to see a lot more from Owens to convince me that he has more in common with the biggest freak chance in all of football than he does with every other WR to ever play the position in the entire history of the game.Owens will hit the wall. Will it be this year? Maybe not... but maybe so. He's definitely a strong candidate to do so. Is he a better than 50% chance? Of course not... but I'd say he's a better than 20% chance, which to me qualifies him as a strong candidate.

 

[LILB811]

I agree completely with you, but what I mentioned in my original point about Owens was summed up nicely in the following....

i have to agree with those that don't see TO as a prime example here... while by age it would be almost automatic to include him here (& he does have to slow down at SOME point), he sure has played fast in recent years... also agreed that by taking such great care of his body & being a workout fanatic, his functional age is probably far lower than his chronological age, & he is probably in better shape than the vast majority of "younger" WRs in the league...

Does the bolded not have to be taken into account? I'd be willing to wager that the amount of elite seasons TO has left is not much different, if at all, than Burress or Moss. I believe TO is the exception, obviously, and not the rule.

I don't think so, no. So far, in all of NFL history, there has been ONE exception- Jerry Rice. Lots of WRs have taken unbelievable care of their bodies- look at Rod Smith, for instance. Shanahan has said that Rod Smith is the only player he's ever worked with who had never missed a single workout or team activity for any reason. Rod Smith still hit the wall HARD, falling from 85/1105/6 and a pro bowl berth to 52/512/3 from one year to the next. Lots and lots of WRs in NFL history have taken great care of themselves, and only ONCE has a WR defied the wall. I'm going to need to see a lot more from Owens to convince me that he has more in common with the biggest freak chance in all of football than he does with every other WR to ever play the position in the entire history of the game.Owens will hit the wall. Will it be this year? Maybe not... but maybe so. He's definitely a strong candidate to do so. Is he a better than 50% chance? Of course not... but I'd say he's a better than 20% chance, which to me qualifies him as a strong candidate.

I'd be willing to include Tim Brown and Cris Carter in with Rice as far as being very productive past 33. These guys are regarded as some of the absolute best ever and I think TO is in that category. At the same age that TO is right now Rod Smith had 59 TD's. Owens has 129 (1 behind Cris Carter) and should be 2nd behind only Rice all-time after this season. He could end up as high as 3rd all-time in receiving yards behind Rice and Brown after this season. You need to see more from him? And not just a little more, a lot more? Don't dismiss what the man has accomplished in his career.Obviously he will hit the will, everyone does, but to me he feels like the exception. Just my opinion.

 

[EBF]

For the past several years people kept Marvin Harrison near the top of their dynasty WR rankings and steadily dropped Isaac Bruce despite the fact that Bruce was actually younger than Harrison. I think some owners have a tendency to disregard breakdown potential when a player is a producing star numbers. IMO that's a mistake. You can't brush off the risk just because a guy is still playing well.

TO is 34. He'll turn 35 at the end of next season. He's older than Amani Toomer and Terry Glenn. He's only about 6 months younger than Eric Moulds and Muhsin Muhammad. He may yet have a couple good years left in the tank, but he's not going to play forever. His value will only decrease over the next few seasons and it will plummet like a rock the minute he shows signs of wearing down. IMO he's clearly overrated by a significant portion of the FF community. People are putting too much emphasis on the past and not enough emphasis on the future, just like they did with Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Marvin Harrison, and Priest Holmes.

 

[Fodasme69]

For the past several years people kept Marvin Harrison near the top of their dynasty WR rankings and steadily dropped Isaac Bruce despite the fact that Bruce was actually younger than Harrison. I think some owners have a tendency to disregard breakdown potential when a player is a producing star numbers. IMO that's a mistake. You can't brush off the risk just because a guy is still playing well.

TO is 34. He'll turn 35 at the end of next season. He's older than Amani Toomer and Terry Glenn. He's only about 6 months younger than Eric Moulds and Muhsin Muhammad. He may yet have a couple good years left in the tank, but he's not going to play forever. His value will only decrease over the next few seasons and it will plummet like a rock the minute he shows signs of wearing down. IMO he's clearly overrated by a significant portion of the FF community. People are putting too much emphasis on the past and not enough emphasis on the future, just like they did with Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Marvin Harrison, and Priest Holmes.

 

[Ice Cream Man]

I, for one, will take the younger WR on the same tier. I do not intend to be the guy who has Owens when he does hit the wall.

I don't see what you mean.Based on TO's stats, consistency, health, and situation, there are few WR (if any) that anyone would prefer in dynasty or redraft. Owens is in the same tier with a bunch of lesser players BECAUSE of his age. To not take him in that tier because of his age is actually factoring into one's rankings something that has already been done.

 

[MAC_32]

Torry Holt - knee problem kept him out of camp and almost forced him out of week 1, had his routes cut back in-season because he couldn't effectively run all of them anymore, had another procedure this offseason on the same knee, and as I recall he hasn't participated in any offseason workouts yet. I see a crash in his near future.

 

[benm3218]

Completely agree with SSOG and EBF. ( i miss F&L's thread and the discussions there)

I will add Samkon Gado and Wali Lundy to the list of candidates that may hit the wall soon.

 

[SSOG]

I don't think so, no. So far, in all of NFL history, there has been ONE exception- Jerry Rice. Lots of WRs have taken unbelievable care of their bodies- look at Rod Smith, for instance. Shanahan has said that Rod Smith is the only player he's ever worked with who had never missed a single workout or team activity for any reason. Rod Smith still hit the wall HARD, falling from 85/1105/6 and a pro bowl berth to 52/512/3 from one year to the next. Lots and lots of WRs in NFL history have taken great care of themselves, and only ONCE has a WR defied the wall. I'm going to need to see a lot more from Owens to convince me that he has more in common with the biggest freak chance in all of football than he does with every other WR to ever play the position in the entire history of the game.Owens will hit the wall. Will it be this year? Maybe not... but maybe so. He's definitely a strong candidate to do so. Is he a better than 50% chance? Of course not... but I'd say he's a better than 20% chance, which to me qualifies him as a strong candidate.

I'd be willing to include Tim Brown and Cris Carter in with Rice as far as being very productive past 33. These guys are regarded as some of the absolute best ever and I think TO is in that category. At the same age that TO is right now Rod Smith had 59 TD's. Owens has 129 (1 behind Cris Carter) and should be 2nd behind only Rice all-time after this season. He could end up as high as 3rd all-time in receiving yards behind Rice and Brown after this season. You need to see more from him? And not just a little more, a lot more? Don't dismiss what the man has accomplished in his career.Obviously he will hit the will, everyone does, but to me he feels like the exception. Just my opinion.

Fair enough. You say that Owens is an all-time great WR, on a level with every other all-time great WR (non-Jerry Rice division). You say that he'll have as good of a chance as anyone (non-Jerry Rice division) of bucking the trends and producing as a WR1 despite advancing age. I won't even argue either point, I'll just illustrate just how good of a chance that really is.Over the past 10 years, WR12 has averaged 164 points. There are no outliers impacting that average, either- every single WR12 has finished between 159 and 169 points (so 164 +/- 5 points = WR12). I feel incredibly confident when stating that, in order to be a fantasy WR1 in the upcoming seasons, Owens will need at least 164 fantasy points.Since 1960, do you know how many times a WR who was 35 to end the season (as Owens will be next year) has finished with 164 fantasy points? Six times... and three of those were Jerry Rice. Cris Carter, Irving Fryar, and Tim Brown accounted for the other fantasy WR1 finishes by a WR aged 35 or older. So even if Terrell Owens is every bit as elite has the most elite non-Jerry Rice WRs in NFL history, that means he has ONE more WR1 season left in him.And this is just WR1 seasons. The current record for points by a WR who was 35 to end a season was 181.4 by Cris Carter. 181.4 fantasy points would rank Owens as WR9, WR4, WR10, WR10, WR7, WR7, WR7, and WR10 over the past 8 years. So even if he matched the best season any WR his age has ever posted in the history of the NFL (including Jerry Rice), he still wouldn't justify his current draft position as the second WR off the board. Even if he matched Jerry Rice with three seasons of WR10-12 type production over the next three years, he wouldn't justify his current dynasty ranking.Terrell Owens is so unbelievably overrated right now that it's INSANE. He could match the best WR in NFL history at his age for the rest of his career and he wouldn't justify his current draft position in either redraft or dynasty. Only 4 WRs in the history of the NFL have produced WR1 numbers at his age, and despite this people are taking him as the second WR off the board and arguing how UNLIKELY he is to hit the wall. Incredible.

I, for one, will take the younger WR on the same tier. I do not intend to be the guy who has Owens when he does hit the wall.

I don't see what you mean.Based on TO's stats, consistency, health, and situation, there are few WR (if any) that anyone would prefer in dynasty or redraft. Owens is in the same tier with a bunch of lesser players BECAUSE of his age. To not take him in that tier because of his age is actually factoring into one's rankings something that has already been done.

Few (if any) WRs that anyone would prefer in dynasty or redraft? I don't have him in my current top 12 in redraft, or my current top 24 in dynasty.