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While I can't blame you for the dynasty ranking, somehow I just don't buy your redraft. Honestly, if you're drafting, you like your team so far, and 11 other WRs have gone, you'd take Boldin/Holmes/??? over TO in a redraft? Even when we admit there's risk, nobody could pass on that value.
Like I said, only four times in history has a WR Owens' age finished as even a borderline fantasy WR1 (i.e. WR#12 or better). The *BEST* finish by a WR Owens' age was 181.4 points, which would usually clock in in the WR6-10 range. Sure, he's got a HUGE track record of success, and he's in an UNBELIEVABLE situation. He's coming off a string of seven top-5 finishes in the past 10 years (including #2 last year), and he's playing with one of the best young QBs in the league. Marvin Harrison, of course, was coming off a streak of seven top-5 finishes in the past EIGHT years (including #1 the year before) and was playing with arguably the best QB of any description when he hit Owens' age. Jerry Rice was coming off of ELEVEN STRAIGHT top-5 finishes and played with arguably the best QB in the league when 1997 rolled around. Cris Carter was coming off of 8 straight top-10 finishes and playing in one of the league's most explosive offenses when his fall from grace hit. The wall is merciless, unforgiving, and inescapable. The looming threat of the wall dramatically increases the risk that Owens busts. I'd much rather go with a safer but still proven WR at that point. Heck, I think Owens' bust risk is higher than Marshall's at this point, but people seem to be downgrading Marshall a lot more than they're downgrading Owens.
Numbers don’t lie, that is for sure. I guess when I read “Who is due to hit the wall soon”, I wanted to look at it a little more in depth than “old guys”. Your examples of Rice and Harrison’s poor season at 35 were due to injury and I’m no prognosticator. Carter was highly productive at 35, and had a pretty solid season at 36 despite an injured Daunte Culpepper and having Spergon Wynn and Todd Bouman at QB for almost half a season. Again, I can’t forecast injury.What I will point out is something that affected all of those receivers that doesn’t affect TO, and that is the man on the other side of the field. Rice had Owens, Carter had Moss, Harrison had Wayne. What future/current superstar is going to take the catches from TO? I doubt anything I say will get you to change your mind, but sometimes I think you just need to use your eyes and your instinct. Guys like Muhammad, Glenn, Moulds, Galloway, Toomer just “feel” like old guys who don’t have much left. TO doesn’t have that feel to me.
It would be nice if people stopped perpetuating the myth that RB shelf life is correlated with # of touches. Either SSOG or EBF has written about this before. The biggest indicator that a productive RB will "hit the wall": age >= 30.Rudi turns 29 in October. Maybe he still has 1 more good year, but he is definitely inching up to the wall.Edge turns 30 in August. He's already standing up against the wall. We'll see if it falls down on him this year.
Maybe I wasn't clear. The only reason he is not the first or second WR taken off the board in dynasty (or redraft) is due to his age. If he was 27, his elite status would not be questioned. My comment was saying he was only put on a lower tier because of his age. For someone to then turn around and then not take him on that lower tier because of his age is actually penalizing the player twice, which doesn't make any sense.
...along w/at least half the other people in this thread.
ThxTempted to say LT, but can't make that reach yet.
It definitely wasn't me. I still haven't seen anything to convince me that touches don't matter. I'd be interested to see such a study, though.
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, that i don't think is too controversial or would garner wide disagreement...
It's true that Rice had a catastrophic knee injury right when he was Owens' age, and while we could argue back and forth whether his age predisposed him to a catastrophic injury of that nature (I personally believe that older bodies are more likely to break down due to what would have before been routine much like older cars are more likely to break down due to seemingly inconsequential problems), we can always just look at what he did after he came back from the injury. Yes, he was the exception, and he produced three more WR1 caliber seasons... but just barely. Before injury, he had only three times scored fewer than 200 fantasy points (once as a rookie, and then two other seasons with 187 and 192 points). After injury, he three times managed to finish as a "WR1" (164+ points), but a very low-end one (170, 168, 165), and with a pair of mid-to-low end WR3 finishes mixed in for good measure (122 and 114 points). I've seen Owens ranked as high as WR6 in dynasty rankings. Even if he matches Jerry Rice stride for stride... 9.23 ppg for the rest of his career won't justify that ranking. It just won't. Even Jerry Rice, freak of nature that he was, no longer qualified as a fantasy difference-maker after the big 35. And I really feel like, when discussing longevity issues, Rice has to be viewed as the upside, the ceiling.Bob Magaw said:jerry rice was brought up here (possibly by ssog, who has done some nice work in this thread - thanx)...wasn't rice's big problem a catastrophic knee injury (by warren sapp?) when he had never had one up to that time... not sure if that coincided with the 34 age bracket... only bringing this up to make the obvious point that perhaps rice wouldn't have dropped off if not for that... and since i don't think anybody is predicting the same for TO, he could escape from the big plummet relatively unscathed for a few more years...i thought a few years ago maybe TO was a dynasty risk, but a lot of people probably missed out on a lot of production by viewing him too harshly on the age measure (& possibly didn't account sufficiently for what a physical specimen he is)... which is why i think this thread could be useful for these kinds of dynasty considerations...a common denominator for freaks like rice & harrison (who's play remains at a high level improbably long) is that they are among the greatest WRs in the history of the game... & TO has to be counted in that group...needless to say, depending on the life cycle of your dynasty franchise & where it is at competitively, can have a lot to do with driving decisions on whether or not to keep or acquire owens... teams near a championship more likely to retain (& acquire) older studs (unless they can get a young stud in exchange)... teams closer to the cellar more likely to blow up team & rid themselves of depreciating aging assets while they can...* edit/add - i looked it up & it appears rice's last season BEFORE the knee injury he was exactly 34... at that time, he was coming off three seasons averaging about 110+ receptions, 1,500+ yards & 15 TDs... if not for the knee injury, he wasn't looking like an obvious hit the wall candidate...stats & history are hugely important... arguably the most important thing (though they have to be coupled with individual scouting, scheme, surrounding talent-type info, etc)...but i think stats & history make for better slaves than masters... they have to be examined, but imo are put to best use by viewing individual players on a case by case basis, through the lens of stats & history...this last probably a captain obvious point
, that i don't think is too controversial or would garner wide disagreement...
