Who is this Year's Ray Rice? (1 Viewer)

[Team Canada]

Ray Rice was ranked mid 20s to low 30s for RBs in 2009 and cracked the top 5. Who has the best shot at it this year?

I woiuldn't put any money on a rookie making it there. Not in this year's class at least.

Top 3 in order.

Consensus ADP.

Stewart 15th ADP RB - Great dedication to the running game and his second half was strong. I think he has hit his stride. Anything happens to Willy and he is almost a lock.

Moreno 18th ADP RB - Had a strong rookie performance and ready to do more.

Forte 23rd ADP RB - Bounce back year here. With his hands I think he gets a lot of action in Martz' system.

 

[pidgeonmanza]

I like your list

These are some guys that might not be top 5 but maybe top 10

M Bush

D Brown if addai gets hurt

A Bradshaw if jacobs continues to struggle

 

[travdogg]

Pierre Thomas seems like the player with the most similarity to Rice situation wise, where even with a major breakout, he's still losing valuable work to another RB. There's a big pie in New Orleans and the size of his slice will be determinded by his health. Perhaps another new contract year could help too. With another 50 touches or so, he may have been a top-10 RB last year and if some of those touches are goal-line touches he has top-5 upside.

LeSean McCoy also seems possible as a guy who was also a 2nd round pick who has excellent receiving skills and is in an offense with a young QB. McCoy and Rice had very similar rookie year stats and like Rice, McCoy has been described as being so much better this offseason than in their rookie years. Ultimately his biggest problem may be Andy Reid's aversion to running the ball. I don't think McCoy will hit Ray Rice heights(unless he is heavily featured in the passing game and while I think 50+ catches is very possible, 70+ is pushing it) he has top-10 upside in my opinion.

Of the guys already listed, I don't see Bush or Bradshaw at all. I just don't think Bradshaw is a guy who is capable of staying healthy(I realize I started with Thomas who hasn't been a picture of health, but Bradshaw's injuries worry me more as they have almost exclusively been to the feet and ankles) enough to get a Rice like workload, I think NY will be a 2-RB team regardless of who the RB's are. I just don't think Bush is all that talented, he's shown flashes, but really no more than Fargas showed and McFadden is such a far superior option in the passing game that unless Bush hits 12+ TD's, there is no way he'll sniff top-10 let alone top-5.

Stewart is nothing like Rice, I think he could be LJ circa 2005 with a DeAngelo injury though. Barring injury to DeAngelo, he's going to be a solid TD threat every week with 100 yard possibilty while splitting time, but unless he either gets a substantially larger workload or becomes a threat in the passing game, it'll be tough to rely on him while Williams is still in town.

Brown and Moreno are interesting, ultimately I think Brown needs an injury to Addai to be that relevant. Moreno could be that guy, but I've got a really bad feeling about the Broncos offense this year, especially if Clady isn't healthy. I think Moreno has a chance if things in Denver end up going better than they look on paper, which to be fair, McDaniles was able to pull off for the 1st 6 weeks of last season.

 

[adrenaline]

Felix Jones if he can stay healthy.

 

[FGITLOTR]

Health obviously is a huge issue with these guys, but I like their chances:

Bradshaw- I think he will clearly outshine Jacobs this year and I was impressed how the kid played hurt most of the season

Felix- I think this is the year he puts it all together and finishes around #10-12

Wells- I see the Cards running the ball a lot more this year and he stands to benefit greatly

 

[FUBAR]

Pierre Thomas seems like the player with the most similarity to Rice situation wise, where even with a major breakout, he's still losing valuable work to another RB. There's a big pie in New Orleans and the size of his slice will be determinded by his health. Perhaps another new contract year could help too. With another 50 touches or so, he may have been a top-10 RB last year and if some of those touches are goal-line touches he has top-5 upside.

Major differences in the offensive philosophy between Baltimore and New Orleans. If forced to pick, I'll take Shonn Greene or Jahvid Best.

 

[Truman]

Steve Slaton.

 

[Brothers Mayhem]

1. Forte/Taylor - whichever emerges as the top guy. (Forte has to be the favorite here)

2. D.Brown - I think this guy is going to be more involved with the offense than people are giving him credit for.

3. D.McFadden - Campbell may lean on McFadden as his primary checkdown while he gains chemistry & timing with his receivers.

4. R.Williams - Now that Marshall is there, Henne and the Dolphins may look to throw more on 1st down. This should create dump off opportunities for RW. R.Brown might be the guy if ever gets back to 100%.

 

[SoopaCee]

Mccoy....if they use him the exact same way they used Westbrook in his golden years, there is no reason he shouldnt blow up a ppr league

Forte....love him this year....if he gets back to his rookie form, he is quite the steal

Felix jones i agree on too.......should start as the same situation, and if it pans out.....watch Barber disappear like Willis Mac

beanie wells has the chance......but hightower was a pretty good receiver out the backfield last year, sooo i think he is def 3rd down/goaline man still

Michael Bush......heavy sleeper, but i always hear good things.....he just needs to do good things now

Ben Tate.....his chance is there, with slaton 1 good hit away from a wheelchair and that other dude showed flashes (cant remember his name now errr), but they drafted him for a reason

Knowshown Moreno i like too, i think he will do similiar to Forte, so i rather wait and get Forte at value

 

[dmac37]

Situation= McCoy- as mentioned above McCoy's situation looks a bit like Rice last year coming off an uninspiring rookie year but McCoy is not really the complete RB (inside runner) that Rice is. He is also the best canidate to rack up mega receptions like Rice last year.

Talent & Style= Bradshaw- not built as thick as Rice but seems to have the same style and abilities. Excels in the open field, good pass catcher and also runs tougher inside than most seem to give him credit for.

 

[Iraqi Information Minister]

Arian Foster

 

[twistd]

Tasard Choice could be terrific if things fall right. Jones would have to get hurt, but even with Barber acting as a TD vulture, Choice could put up some monster numbers. When given the opportunity he has done very well. I remember the game he had against Pittsburgh in 2008. I, of course, didn't pick him up figuring Pittsburgh was just too tough for him to have any numbers. He did well in those last four games in 2008. I think that this Dallas offense has more weapons in the passing game then they have had for quite awhile, particularly if Bryant produces quickly. I like Choice as a late round flyer. Jones has shown he isn't exactly an ironman. I think if Choice gets his chance he could shine.

 

[Todem]

Jamal Charles.

 

[Todem]

Mccoy....if they use him the exact same way they used Westbrook in his golden years, there is no reason he shouldnt blow up a ppr league

Forte....love him this year....if he gets back to his rookie form, he is quite the steal

Felix jones i agree on too.......should start as the same situation, and if it pans out.....watch Barber disappear like Willis Mac

beanie wells has the chance......but hightower was a pretty good receiver out the backfield last year, sooo i think he is def 3rd down/goaline man still

Michael Bush......heavy sleeper, but i always hear good things.....he just needs to do good things now

Ben Tate.....his chance is there, with slaton 1 good hit away from a wheelchair and that other dude showed flashes (cant remember his name now errr), but they drafted him for a reason

Knowshown Moreno i like too, i think he will do similiar to Forte, so i rather wait and get Forte at value

I guess Chris Johnson is too. He had the exact same type of surgery to his neck as well.

 

[Go deep]

Amhad Bradshaw, similar age, size and skill set minus the pass catching. Plus, check out these numbers.

254 carries, 1339 yards, 7 TD's, 78 rec., 702 yards, 1 TD

253 carries, 1325 yards, 9 TD's, 28 rec, 261 yards, 1 TD

The top is Rays Rices' season from 2009, and the bottom is what Bradhsaw has managed to piece together in limited time over his career.

 

[baconisgood]

Amhad Bradshaw, similar age, size and skill set minus the pass catching. Plus, check out these numbers.

254 carries, 1339 yards, 7 TD's, 78 rec., 702 yards, 1 TD

253 carries, 1325 yards, 9 TD's, 28 rec, 261 yards, 1 TD

The top is Rays Rices' season from 2009, and the bottom is what Bradhsaw has managed to piece together in limited time over his career.

This is pretty much what makes Rice special.271 carries, 1310 yards, 6 TDs, 57 rec, 402 yards, 3 TDs.

Jerome Harrison.

I think if there *IS* (which there probably isn't this year) a Ray Rice lurking its a guy like Harrison. A good chance at starting, can catch the ball and will be in a run heavy offense.

 

[cr8f]

Arian Foster

I hope so. The team did well and loved him last year. But the Texans did move up to take Tate.I say Hardesty or James Starks if Grant is hurt.And Derrick Ward.

 

[gandalas]

Beanie Wells. He is in the same situation as Ray Rice last year:

Player coming into his second year that had a somewhat underwhelming Rookie Campaign (although Wells was better than Rice in his Rookie year)

A team that wants to Run the ball quite a bit.

A backup RB that is a TD vulture (Hightower vs McGahee?)

A good pass catching back (Ray Rice has caught 78% of his targets over his career for 8.5YPR, Wells caught 81% of his targets last year for almost 12 YPR)

It is all there!

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

If I had to pick it would be Donald Brown....they were both forgetten about after their rookie seasons.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Moreno

Good pass catching back

Good red zone back

No talented & experienced WRs on the team - even worse than Baltimore last year

The entire offense is going to run through him

Going in the late 3rd early 4th

I expect 2008 Forte numbers at least.

 

[Stealthycat]

Mendenhall

300+ rushes, 50+ catches, potential for 12-14 or more TD's ...... one of the true bell bows in the NFL right now and PIT is going to rush/rus/rush IMO

only injury can stop him from putting up enormous numbers

 

[JHuber77]

Steve Slaton.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Mccoy....if they use him the exact same way they used Westbrook in his golden years, there is no reason he shouldnt blow up a ppr league

Forte....love him this year....if he gets back to his rookie form, he is quite the steal

Felix jones i agree on too.......should start as the same situation, and if it pans out.....watch Barber disappear like Willis Mac

beanie wells has the chance......but hightower was a pretty good receiver out the backfield last year, sooo i think he is def 3rd down/goaline man still

Michael Bush......heavy sleeper, but i always hear good things.....he just needs to do good things now

Ben Tate.....his chance is there, with slaton 1 good hit away from a wheelchair and that other dude showed flashes (cant remember his name now errr), but they drafted him for a reason

Knowshown Moreno i like too, i think he will do similiar to Forte, so i rather wait and get Forte at value

I guess Chris Johnson is too. He had the exact same type of surgery to his neck as well.

Really? I'm interested in more information on this.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I'm skeptical that there is a Ray Rice this year. I'm not saying that there isn't someone who is ranked in the 20s who will finish in the top 10, but Rice had it ALL going for him last year:

Talent (both on the ground and with the hands)

Health

Great O-line

Centerpiece of offense (even though he had to share)

Solid but not dominant passing game

Good enough defense to stay out of shootouts

Only Rice's unproven-ness kept his ranking low last year.

There are some nice candidates in this thread so far, but IMHO I don't see anyone who has that perfect storm.

 

[identikit]

Mccoy....if they use him the exact same way they used Westbrook in his golden years, there is no reason he shouldnt blow up a ppr league

Forte....love him this year....if he gets back to his rookie form, he is quite the steal

Felix jones i agree on too.......should start as the same situation, and if it pans out.....watch Barber disappear like Willis Mac

beanie wells has the chance......but hightower was a pretty good receiver out the backfield last year, sooo i think he is def 3rd down/goaline man still

Michael Bush......heavy sleeper, but i always hear good things.....he just needs to do good things now

Ben Tate.....his chance is there, with slaton 1 good hit away from a wheelchair and that other dude showed flashes (cant remember his name now errr), but they drafted him for a reason

Knowshown Moreno i like too, i think he will do similiar to Forte, so i rather wait and get Forte at value

I guess Chris Johnson is too. He had the exact same type of surgery to his neck as well.

Really? I'm interested in more information on this.

Here's a thread with some info about Slaton vs Johnson re: their surgerieshttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...ve+slaton\

I personally lean towards the surgeries being different in seriousness.

 

[cr8f]

Mendenhall300+ rushes, 50+ catches, potential for 12-14 or more TD's ...... one of the true bell bows in the NFL right now and PIT is going to rush/rus/rush IMOonly injury can stop him from putting up enormous numbers

Ray Rice went in the 7th round last summer(34th RB taken). Mendenhall is 7th RB taken in ADP this year. He may get the same production but has to go a lot later.

 

[LawFitz]

1. Pierre Thomas - this to me is the most likely candidate to go from rd3 and later to top 5 RB in 2010. PT can run inside, can catch and plays on an explosive offense with one less mouth to feed in the running game (bye bye Mike Bell).

2. Matt Forte - will Martz turn Forte into the next Faulk or Holmes-type RB? Forte has flashed excellent receiving skills in the past.

3. Donald Brown - will require an injury to or severe outperformance over Joey Addai. I can see it if the Donald can improve his pass blocking and stay healthy in his own right.

 

[baconisgood]

1. Mendenhall and Charles don't count- they are top 24 picks- that is hardly comparable to where Rice was taken last year.1a. Wells, McCoy, Moreno, Thomas in a similar but lower pick boat.Re Wells

A good pass catching back (Ray Rice has caught 78% of his targets over his career for 8.5YPR, Wells caught 81% of his targets last year for almost 12 YPR)

Hard to imagine a healthy Hightower allowing Beanie more than 2 receptions a game. 2. Bradshaw- can you really envision him getting 22 touches a game? Even if Jacobs goes down/is benched due to ineffectiveness they have Brown, Johnson and Ware in their stable- along with the best receiving corps the team has had (ever). Bradshaw has top 15 to top 10 production if things go well for him. Top 5 is a real reach (unless top RB production is remarkably low this year).3. Addai/Donald Brown- both good choices but both need the other to get injured and for the Colts to do a better job run blocking4. Barber/Jones/Choice- Barber seems like the best bet to crack top 5 as he is the most likely to put up double digit TDs + he averaged 3+ receptions a game from 07-08He is more likely to be top 5 with a 1,400 yard 18 TD season than a 2000 yard 8 td season but its possible. Seems unlikely that Jones is a 20 touch a game player on that team. 5. Bush/Mcfadden- McFadden's upside looks like Reggie Bush, not Ray Rice. M. Bush has a shot.

 

[Grahamburn]

Mendenhall300+ rushes, 50+ catches, potential for 12-14 or more TD's ...... one of the true bell bows in the NFL right now and PIT is going to rush/rus/rush IMOonly injury can stop him from putting up enormous numbers

Bad o-line, Ben out 4-6 (is Byron going to keep 8 out of the box?), Moore on 3rd down, Dwyer lurking. Mendenhall is already going in the first round. I think Ray Rice was going around the fourth last season.The Steelers will run the ball a TON to start the season, but I don't see them having alot of success at it.

 

[Go deep]

1. Mendenhall and Charles don't count- they are top 24 picks- that is hardly comparable to where Rice was taken last year.

1a. Wells, McCoy, Moreno, Thomas in a similar but lower pick boat.

Re Wells

A good pass catching back (Ray Rice has caught 78% of his targets over his career for 8.5YPR, Wells caught 81% of his targets last year for almost 12 YPR)

Hard to imagine a healthy Hightower allowing Beanie more than 2 receptions a game. 2. Bradshaw- can you really envision him getting 22 touches a game? Even if Jacobs goes down/is benched due to ineffectiveness they have Brown, Johnson and Ware in their stable- along with the best receiving corps the team has had (ever). Bradshaw has top 15 to top 10 production if things go well for him. Top 5 is a real reach (unless top RB production is remarkably low this year).

3. Addai/Donald Brown- both good choices but both need the other to get injured and for the Colts to do a better job run blocking

4. Barber/Jones/Choice- Barber seems like the best bet to crack top 5 as he is the most likely to put up double digit TDs + he averaged 3+ receptions a game from 07-08He is more likely to be top 5 with a 1,400 yard 18 TD season than a 2000 yard 8 td season but its possible. Seems unlikely that Jones is a 20 touch a game player on that team.

5. Bush/Mcfadden- McFadden's upside looks like Reggie Bush, not Ray Rice. M. Bush has a shot.

Thats the same thing people said about Rice last year. Thats why he was ranked outside the top 20. Felix is actually the most liekly to pull a "Ray Rice". He wont get the receptions because Dallas actually has good WR's, but the real Ray Rice wont touch his reception total from last year either.

 

[RudeDog]

Since no one has mentioned him yet... CJ Spiller in my opinion has the best opportunity to surprise this year. He is explosive and the Bills will focus on him. I see him having the workload that LT2 had coming out in his first year at SD.

He catches and runs the ball well and Edwards is Capt. Checkdown. Spiller could be golden this year even on a poor offense.

 

[baconisgood]

1. Mendenhall and Charles don't count- they are top 24 picks- that is hardly comparable to where Rice was taken last year.

1a. Wells, McCoy, Moreno, Thomas in a similar but lower pick boat.

Re Wells

A good pass catching back (Ray Rice has caught 78% of his targets over his career for 8.5YPR, Wells caught 81% of his targets last year for almost 12 YPR)

Hard to imagine a healthy Hightower allowing Beanie more than 2 receptions a game. 2. Bradshaw- can you really envision him getting 22 touches a game? Even if Jacobs goes down/is benched due to ineffectiveness they have Brown, Johnson and Ware in their stable- along with the best receiving corps the team has had (ever). Bradshaw has top 15 to top 10 production if things go well for him. Top 5 is a real reach (unless top RB production is remarkably low this year).

3. Addai/Donald Brown- both good choices but both need the other to get injured and for the Colts to do a better job run blocking

4. Barber/Jones/Choice- Barber seems like the best bet to crack top 5 as he is the most likely to put up double digit TDs + he averaged 3+ receptions a game from 07-08He is more likely to be top 5 with a 1,400 yard 18 TD season than a 2000 yard 8 td season but its possible. Seems unlikely that Jones is a 20 touch a game player on that team.

5. Bush/Mcfadden- McFadden's upside looks like Reggie Bush, not Ray Rice. M. Bush has a shot.

Thats the same thing people said about Rice last year. Thats why he was ranked outside the top 20. Felix is actually the most liekly to pull a "Ray Rice". He wont get the receptions because Dallas actually has good WR's, but the real Ray Rice wont touch his reception total from last year either.

You can see why 'they' (and I am in that group) were wrong about Rice last year. It was in general a mis-evaluation of talent. In Felix Jones case I am not discounting his ability but am simply recognizing that a team with Barber, Witten, Romo, Austin, Bryant, Choice, Williams and Crayton is a team is unlikely to very unlikely to give 330 touches to one RB. In Rice's case McGahee and Mason were the next 2 best offensive players on that team. I personally didn't doubt that a player *could* get 20+ touches a game I doubted the gap between Rice and McGahee. Clearly I was wrong here- but I don't think being wrong there is a good parallel to evaluating Jones' situation. And don't go quoting this if Jones makes that top 15- he definitely has the talent to do that- but I don't think, barring several injuries to Dallas, that he has the situation to be top 5.

 

[Nagle2998]

There is always a rb that really jumps up much higher then most people think last year it was Rice the year before that it was Turner before that Drew and before that Barber so there will be one in 2010 atleast the odds say there will be. Most people assume it has to be a guy that also catches the ball which I don't get considering Turner had a whole 3 catches in 2008 and was 2nd in most scoring leagues. Now I don't see a 30th ranked or lower rb jumping up to the top ten but I do see two guys who can go from the 12-18 range jump into the top 5.

I like Moreno who I think had a much better year last year then people think till he hit the rookie wall late. Up until the last few weeks he was averaging 4.25 YPC which is pretty good and with a young Wr core and Orton he should get a lot more carries and TD's.

Another guy I think can easily fall into the top 5 in Jamal Charles if he stays healthy. Charles plays about as easy a schedule as you can get and finished 11 in my league even thought he didn't take over till week 10 and only had 190 carries. I expect Jones to get a decent amount of carries but I expect Charles to get 220 carries and 40 catches which and even if he get a slight decline in YPC he is still going to put up huge numbers.

 

[drater]

Well, if the criteria is a mid-round pick who finishes top 5, Forsett has the best chance, IMO. If Carroll gives him a full slate of work, the numbers will be there. And if they don't bring in anybody else (BeastMode), he's going to get the work.

If the criteria is which back being picked in the 2-4 round range, I'm going with Moreno. Look at that schedule. They get ten games against the powerhouse D's in the AFC and NFC West divisions.

 

[Go deep]

1. Mendenhall and Charles don't count- they are top 24 picks- that is hardly comparable to where Rice was taken last year.

1a. Wells, McCoy, Moreno, Thomas in a similar but lower pick boat.

Re Wells

A good pass catching back (Ray Rice has caught 78% of his targets over his career for 8.5YPR, Wells caught 81% of his targets last year for almost 12 YPR)

Hard to imagine a healthy Hightower allowing Beanie more than 2 receptions a game. 2. Bradshaw- can you really envision him getting 22 touches a game? Even if Jacobs goes down/is benched due to ineffectiveness they have Brown, Johnson and Ware in their stable- along with the best receiving corps the team has had (ever). Bradshaw has top 15 to top 10 production if things go well for him. Top 5 is a real reach (unless top RB production is remarkably low this year).

3. Addai/Donald Brown- both good choices but both need the other to get injured and for the Colts to do a better job run blocking

4. Barber/Jones/Choice- Barber seems like the best bet to crack top 5 as he is the most likely to put up double digit TDs + he averaged 3+ receptions a game from 07-08He is more likely to be top 5 with a 1,400 yard 18 TD season than a 2000 yard 8 td season but its possible. Seems unlikely that Jones is a 20 touch a game player on that team.

5. Bush/Mcfadden- McFadden's upside looks like Reggie Bush, not Ray Rice. M. Bush has a shot.

Thats the same thing people said about Rice last year. Thats why he was ranked outside the top 20. Felix is actually the most liekly to pull a "Ray Rice". He wont get the receptions because Dallas actually has good WR's, but the real Ray Rice wont touch his reception total from last year either.

You can see why 'they' (and I am in that group) were wrong about Rice last year. It was in general a mis-evaluation of talent. In Felix Jones case I am not discounting his ability but am simply recognizing that a team with Barber, Witten, Romo, Austin, Bryant, Choice, Williams and Crayton is a team is unlikely to very unlikely to give 330 touches to one RB. In Rice's case McGahee and Mason were the next 2 best offensive players on that team. I personally didn't doubt that a player *could* get 20+ touches a game I doubted the gap between Rice and McGahee. Clearly I was wrong here- but I don't think being wrong there is a good parallel to evaluating Jones' situation. And don't go quoting this if Jones makes that top 15- he definitely has the talent to do that- but I don't think, barring several injuries to Dallas, that he has the situation to be top 5.

I dont know if it was Rices' talent i doubted last year as much as it was i thought the other 2 RB's(Mcgahee and Mcclain) would take enough carries to keep Rice out of the top 10. I think alot of people have that same thought about Jones in Dallas. If Jones turns out to be the better RB, like i think he will, his situation is very similar to Rice. Rice made it difficult for the Ravems to take him off the field and i think Jones will do the same in Dallas this year. Youre right about the WR's/TE in Dallas, they have a much better passing game. I still think there will be plenty of RB touches to go around, and with those weapons, Jones should have more space to operate. How many 8 man fronts do you think he will see in 2010?

 

[Mimo]

It's all about opportunity.

Bernard Scott, Michael Bush and Ahmad Bradshaw

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

1. Mendenhall and Charles don't count- they are top 24 picks- that is hardly comparable to where Rice was taken last year.

1a. Wells, McCoy, Moreno, Thomas in a similar but lower pick boat.

Re Wells

A good pass catching back (Ray Rice has caught 78% of his targets over his career for 8.5YPR, Wells caught 81% of his targets last year for almost 12 YPR)

Hard to imagine a healthy Hightower allowing Beanie more than 2 receptions a game. 2. Bradshaw- can you really envision him getting 22 touches a game? Even if Jacobs goes down/is benched due to ineffectiveness they have Brown, Johnson and Ware in their stable- along with the best receiving corps the team has had (ever). Bradshaw has top 15 to top 10 production if things go well for him. Top 5 is a real reach (unless top RB production is remarkably low this year).

3. Addai/Donald Brown- both good choices but both need the other to get injured and for the Colts to do a better job run blocking

4. Barber/Jones/Choice- Barber seems like the best bet to crack top 5 as he is the most likely to put up double digit TDs + he averaged 3+ receptions a game from 07-08He is more likely to be top 5 with a 1,400 yard 18 TD season than a 2000 yard 8 td season but its possible. Seems unlikely that Jones is a 20 touch a game player on that team.

5. Bush/Mcfadden- McFadden's upside looks like Reggie Bush, not Ray Rice. M. Bush has a shot.

Thats the same thing people said about Rice last year. Thats why he was ranked outside the top 20. Felix is actually the most liekly to pull a "Ray Rice". He wont get the receptions because Dallas actually has good WR's, but the real Ray Rice wont touch his reception total from last year either.

You can see why 'they' (and I am in that group) were wrong about Rice last year. It was in general a mis-evaluation of talent. In Felix Jones case I am not discounting his ability but am simply recognizing that a team with Barber, Witten, Romo, Austin, Bryant, Choice, Williams and Crayton is a team is unlikely to very unlikely to give 330 touches to one RB. In Rice's case McGahee and Mason were the next 2 best offensive players on that team. I personally didn't doubt that a player *could* get 20+ touches a game I doubted the gap between Rice and McGahee. Clearly I was wrong here- but I don't think being wrong there is a good parallel to evaluating Jones' situation. And don't go quoting this if Jones makes that top 15- he definitely has the talent to do that- but I don't think, barring several injuries to Dallas, that he has the situation to be top 5.

I dont know if it was Rices' talent i doubted last year as much as it was i thought the other 2 RB's(Mcgahee and Mcclain) would take enough carries to keep Rice out of the top 10. I think alot of people have that same thought about Jones in Dallas. If Jones turns out to be the better RB, like i think he will, his situation is very similar to Rice. Rice made it difficult for the Ravems to take him off the field and i think Jones will do the same in Dallas this year. Youre right about the WR's/TE in Dallas, they have a much better passing game. I still think there will be plenty of RB touches to go around, and with those weapons, Jones should have more space to operate. How many 8 man fronts do you think he will see in 2010?

Good points about Dallas but the Rice situation was a perfect storm for him . Undervalued talent, great O. C. to throw to him, a young QB with limited WR's and a great OFF line with a solid DEE. It's not just about the back. That being said, J Charles looks likely for this minus the great O-line.

 

[moderated]

Steve Slaton.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Best chance to have a Ray Rice like rise to the top 5.... Felix Jones. If he stays healthy he puts together a monster year IMO.

Other players I expect to significantly outperform their ADP, but not end up that high...

Michael Bush - I expect a top 20 RB season out of him.

Montario Hardesty - I think he takes the job much earlier than many expect and puts up solid RB2 numbers.

Beanie Wells - I think Leinart and Hightower are scaring some people away. Wells just has so much natural talent I think he performs better than the expectations.

 

[ATC1]

Ladainian Tomlinson - call it a hunch, but I think he does better then people think on a new team.

 

[purplejesus28]

I'm not sure he gets to the top five because of the QB he is behind, but I could see Donald Brown get into the top 10 in his second year, given the chance.

 

[Fly]

Well, if the criteria is a mid-round pick who finishes top 5, Forsett has the best chance, IMO. If Carroll gives him a full slate of work, the numbers will be there. And if they don't bring in anybody else (BeastMode), he's going to get the work.

This is what I think too. Like Rice last year, there are a lot of questions and doubts about how many touches Forsett is going to get. Add in that TJ is the best receiver (like Mason in regards to Rice) and there are definitely similarities here. Plus, Forsett had 51 targets out of the backfield last year.I don't think Forsett is near as talented but for the criteria of this thread I think Forsett has the most parallels with Rice's situation last year.

 

[Hooper31]

Well, if the criteria is a mid-round pick who finishes top 5, Forsett has the best chance, IMO. If Carroll gives him a full slate of work, the numbers will be there. And if they don't bring in anybody else (BeastMode), he's going to get the work.

This is what I think too. Like Rice last year, there are a lot of questions and doubts about how many touches Forsett is going to get. Add in that TJ is the best receiver (like Mason in regards to Rice) and there are definitely similarities here. Plus, Forsett had 51 targets out of the backfield last year.I don't think Forsett is near as talented but for the criteria of this thread I think Forsett has the most parallels with Rice's situation last year.

Rice played for a solid team that gave him a chance to get scoring opportunities. Seattle this coming season? I have my doubts, and I really don't want to have doubts.

 

[Fly]

Well, if the criteria is a mid-round pick who finishes top 5, Forsett has the best chance, IMO. If Carroll gives him a full slate of work, the numbers will be there. And if they don't bring in anybody else (BeastMode), he's going to get the work.

This is what I think too. Like Rice last year, there are a lot of questions and doubts about how many touches Forsett is going to get. Add in that TJ is the best receiver (like Mason in regards to Rice) and there are definitely similarities here. Plus, Forsett had 51 targets out of the backfield last year.I don't think Forsett is near as talented but for the criteria of this thread I think Forsett has the most parallels with Rice's situation last year.

Rice played for a solid team that gave him a chance to get scoring opportunities. Seattle this coming season? I have my doubts, and I really don't want to have doubts.

Except that Rice was used mostly between the 20s. The majority of his value was attached to his yardage and receptions (in PPR) and not his touchdowns. There's no reason to think that Forsett can't be used the same way. Even if he doesn't score touchdowns I think they'll use his versatility to move the chains and keep defenses a little off-balance.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Well, if the criteria is a mid-round pick who finishes top 5, Forsett has the best chance, IMO. If Carroll gives him a full slate of work, the numbers will be there. And if they don't bring in anybody else (BeastMode), he's going to get the work.

This is what I think too. Like Rice last year, there are a lot of questions and doubts about how many touches Forsett is going to get. Add in that TJ is the best receiver (like Mason in regards to Rice) and there are definitely similarities here. Plus, Forsett had 51 targets out of the backfield last year.I don't think Forsett is near as talented but for the criteria of this thread I think Forsett has the most parallels with Rice's situation last year.

Rice played for a solid team that gave him a chance to get scoring opportunities. Seattle this coming season? I have my doubts, and I really don't want to have doubts.

Actually, you do want to have doubts. If it were a sure thing, he'd be going in the first round like Ray Rice. I'm not talking about Forsett specifically, but trying to find players with the greatest potential who have the best chance to realize that potential.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Talent & Style= Bradshaw- not built as thick as Rice but seems to have the same style and abilities. Excels in the open field, good pass catcher and also runs tougher inside than most seem to give him credit for.

Awful pass catcher. Among the worst receiving backs in the NFL.

 

[Hooper31]

Except that Rice was used mostly between the 20s. The majority of his value was attached to his yardage and receptions (in PPR) and not his touchdowns. There's no reason to think that Forsett can't be used the same way. Even if he doesn't score touchdowns I think they'll use his versatility to move the chains and keep defenses a little off-balance.

Sorry. When I say "score", I mean fantasy points, not touchdowns. The Seattle offense has been one of the worst in the NFL over the past two seasons. If the Seattle offense doesn't improve drastically no Seattle RB will be scoring enough fantasy points to be worth much of a discussion.Last year Forsett was already the top scoring fantasy RB in Seattle, but finished just 34th in the NFL. With more touches that could improve, but will he get those touches? Hard to say. Is it a lock that the offense will improve? I have my doubts.

 

[No Way Jose]

Well, if the criteria is a mid-round pick who finishes top 5, Forsett has the best chance, IMO. If Carroll gives him a full slate of work, the numbers will be there. And if they don't bring in anybody else (BeastMode), he's going to get the work.If the criteria is which back being picked in the 2-4 round range, I'm going with Moreno. Look at that schedule. They get ten games against the powerhouse D's in the AFC and NFC West divisions.

I think this is the most similar position as Rice....If Carrol gives him the opportunity that Rice got last year, he could have a great year.

 

[Hooper31]

Actually, you do want to have doubts. If it were a sure thing, he'd be going in the first round like Ray Rice. I'm not talking about Forsett specifically, but trying to find players with the greatest potential who have the best chance to realize that potential.

I'm a Seahawk fan first. I would like to see Forsett light it up. No, I would rather feel much more confident in the Seattle running game, but I don't.

 

[Brothers Mayhem]

I may be alone on this one - but if circumstances permit, I really like that J.Dwyer to make an impact. When I watch video of him, he shows great vision, the ability to make the 1st guy miss and good speed in the open field. I am not quite sure as to what has kept this this guy down in the draft. Maybe he struggles with pass blocking or something, but I can't see where he wouldn't be a solid back in the NFL, and especially in that Steeler run game that Bettis made his career with. I am hoping he gets some sort of time share with Mendenhall so we can find out. And should Mendenhall suffer an injury, I can't see M.Moore shouldering the load on his own. Again - just my opinion.