Who is this Year's Ray Rice? (1 Viewer)

[Go deep]

I may be alone on this one - but if circumstances permit, I really like that J.Dwyer to make an impact. When I watch video of him, he shows great vision, the ability to make the 1st guy miss and good speed in the open field. I am not quite sure as to what has kept this this guy down in the draft. Maybe he struggles with pass blocking or something, but I can't see where he wouldn't be a solid back in the NFL, and especially in that Steeler run game that Bettis made his career with. I am hoping he gets some sort of time share with Mendenhall so we can find out. And should Mendenhall suffer an injury, I can't see M.Moore shouldering the load on his own. Again - just my opinion.

The problem with him in the draft was his combine numbers. Youre right though, he definately has the talent to be a solid starting RB. Im not as high on Mendenhall as most people, so i think Dwyer could get a shot at a time share in Pittsburgh, maybe even...gulp...win the starting job.

 

[JPeso]

Shady.

 

[skillz]

In 2008 I was really high on Chris Johnson and Slaton. Last year, I targetted Donald Brown and Ray Rice. This year I am targetting Felix Jones and Michael Bush. I think they both break out this year and separate themselves from others in their respective backfields.

 

[ookook]

I am going to agree with the McCoy nomination. I think he has the right situation to catapult up to top 12 RBs and is relatively cheap.

 

[kurtrudder]

I'm skeptical that there is a Ray Rice this year. I'm not saying that there isn't someone who is ranked in the 20s who will finish in the top 10, but Rice had it ALL going for him last year:Talent (both on the ground and with the hands)HealthGreat O-lineCenterpiece of offense (even though he had to share)Solid but not dominant passing gameGood enough defense to stay out of shootoutsOnly Rice's unproven-ness kept his ranking low last year. There are some nice candidates in this thread so far, but IMHO I don't see anyone who has that perfect storm.

really great call here Cooley's Angels. I'm also finding is hard to see that perfect storm of circumstances coming together and seeing a RB make the kind of leap Ray Rice did last season.If I was pressed, I would concur with the previous thoughts on Donald Brown but I'm seeing top 10 being his ceiling. Michael Bush is another but again top 15 is about his ceiling IMO.

 

[softball]

Beanie Wells may not have the dominant offensive line.

He has the weaker passing game now with Warner gone, great schedule and enogh of the carry load to break the Top 10 IMO.

 

[Ariakis]

Gotta go Pierre Thomas ... he may lose some carries to Bush and whoever gets some GL touches but I smell a top 5 season with a downside of his current ADP.

 

[TaxMan]

Ray Rice was a 4th rounder in very late August drafts, but was going in 6th to 8th round in very early drafts.

2 names come to mind - Jahvid Best and Felix Jones -

 

[ThePittbully]

Ray Rice

 

[Fighting Noles]

After reading his Spotlight this past week, it has become apparent to me that FINLEY is this years' RRice.

A late 4th or 5th RD pick that will put up TOP 5 #'s....It has been written in stone by many here, so it "must" be so.

SARCASM.

 

[Bayhawks]

I may be alone on this one - but if circumstances permit, I really like that J.Dwyer to make an impact. When I watch video of him, he shows great vision, the ability to make the 1st guy miss and good speed in the open field. I am not quite sure as to what has kept this this guy down in the draft. Maybe he struggles with pass blocking or something, but I can't see where he wouldn't be a solid back in the NFL, and especially in that Steeler run game that Bettis made his career with. I am hoping he gets some sort of time share with Mendenhall so we can find out. And should Mendenhall suffer an injury, I can't see M.Moore shouldering the load on his own. Again - just my opinion.

The problem with him in the draft was his combine numbers. Youre right though, he definately has the talent to be a solid starting RB. Im not as high on Mendenhall as most people, so i think Dwyer could get a shot at a time share in Pittsburgh, maybe even...gulp...win the starting job.

The other problem with him is Tomlin is VERY reluctant to give rookies significant PT. Last year Wallace got some PT as the year wore on, but even though they were getting tore up in the secondary, he rarely played any of the rookie DBs they had drafted. Several times, during his press conferences, he would reference (either on his own, or when answering a reporter's question) the lack of PT by many rookies. He usually said they weren't "ready" for significant PT. I would think it would be VERY hard for Dwyer to win the starting job, and I doubt he will get significant carries.

 

[mozzy84]

Beanie Wells. He is in the same situation as Ray Rice last yearlayer coming into his second year that had a somewhat underwhelming Rookie Campaign (although Wells was better than Rice in his Rookie year)A team that wants to Run the ball quite a bit.A backup RB that is a TD vulture (Hightower vs McGahee?)A good pass catching back (Ray Rice has caught 78% of his targets over his career for 8.5YPR, Wells caught 81% of his targets last year for almost 12 YPR)It is all there!

 

[DoubleG]

Beanie Wells. He is in the same situation as Ray Rice last yearlayer coming into his second year that had a somewhat underwhelming Rookie Campaign (although Wells was better than Rice in his Rookie year)A team that wants to Run the ball quite a bit.A backup RB that is a TD vulture (Hightower vs McGahee?)A good pass catching back (Ray Rice has caught 78% of his targets over his career for 8.5YPR, Wells caught 81% of his targets last year for almost 12 YPR)It is all there!

I didn't get to see as much of Wells as I would have liked, but the few games I did see, he looked every bit the part of a 3-down, carry-the-load, bust it inside or speed to get outside and burn your ### NFL RB. He has the tools, the talent and the situation seems to be coming together. "Sharing" the backfield with THT will drop him down some boards (similar to the way Rice and Mendy were knocked down last year due to the veteran presence). If there is any RB that can become Ray Rice in 2010, it's Beannie.

 

[JPeso]

Beanie Wells. He is in the same situation as Ray Rice last yearlayer coming into his second year that had a somewhat underwhelming Rookie Campaign (although Wells was better than Rice in his Rookie year)A team that wants to Run the ball quite a bit.A backup RB that is a TD vulture (Hightower vs McGahee?)A good pass catching back (Ray Rice has caught 78% of his targets over his career for 8.5YPR, Wells caught 81% of his targets last year for almost 12 YPR)It is all there!

I didn't get to see as much of Wells as I would have liked, but the few games I did see, he looked every bit the part of a 3-down, carry-the-load, bust it inside or speed to get outside and burn your ### NFL RB. He has the tools, the talent and the situation seems to be coming together. "Sharing" the backfield with THT will drop him down some boards (similar to the way Rice and Mendy were knocked down last year due to the veteran presence). If there is any RB that can become Ray Rice in 2010, it's Beannie.

Minus the 65 catches.ETA: And the yards that come with those 65 catches.

 

[Hjelle9]

Ray Rice

Awesome.

 

[gandalas]

Minus the 65 catches.ETA: And the yards that come with those 65 catches.

I don't know about that statement...he had 12 catches last season, and that was with Hightower getting pretty much ALL the 3rd down work due to questions about Beanie's blocking prowess.With those questions answered this year, I definitely see 40 catches as a probability. Not 65, but a good 400 yards receiving is a definite possibility.

 

[JPeso]

Minus the 65 catches.ETA: And the yards that come with those 65 catches.

I don't know about that statement...he had 12 catches last season, and that was with Hightower getting pretty much ALL the 3rd down work due to questions about Beanie's blocking prowess.With those questions answered this year, I definitely see 40 catches as a probability. Not 65, but a good 400 yards receiving is a definite possibility.

I'd bet the world Wells doesn't catch 40 balls.

 

[TaxMan]

Minus the 65 catches.ETA: And the yards that come with those 65 catches.

I don't know about that statement...he had 12 catches last season, and that was with Hightower getting pretty much ALL the 3rd down work due to questions about Beanie's blocking prowess.With those questions answered this year, I definitely see 40 catches as a probability. Not 65, but a good 400 yards receiving is a definite possibility.

I'd bet the world Wells doesn't catch 40 balls.

30-40 should be the range for Beanie's rec.

 

[identikit]

FBG staff projections range from 28 to 56 receptions for Wells...

 

[frogpond11]

Minus the 65 catches.ETA: And the yards that come with those 65 catches.

I don't know about that statement...he had 12 catches last season, and that was with Hightower getting pretty much ALL the 3rd down work due to questions about Beanie's blocking prowess.With those questions answered this year, I definitely see 40 catches as a probability. Not 65, but a good 400 yards receiving is a definite possibility.

I'd bet the world Wells doesn't catch 40 balls.

I agree unless something happens to Hightower(injury, etc)...

 

[JPeso]

FBG staff projections range from 28 to 56 receptions for Wells...

Let me know if you want any action on this over/under 40.

 

[JPeso]

Minus the 65 catches.ETA: And the yards that come with those 65 catches.

I don't know about that statement...he had 12 catches last season, and that was with Hightower getting pretty much ALL the 3rd down work due to questions about Beanie's blocking prowess.With those questions answered this year, I definitely see 40 catches as a probability. Not 65, but a good 400 yards receiving is a definite possibility.

I'd bet the world Wells doesn't catch 40 balls.

I agree unless something happens to Hightower(injury, etc)...

Keep in mind, too, that Beanie will be getting a significant uptick in carries. Without Warner and his dead arm, there are going to be less catches for the running backs in general. I think Beanie is going to get 1,150 rushing yards, but he won't be a big PPR scorer even if he gets 1,350 unless he also adds 15 TD. When the question was posed about "this year's Ray Rice," I was assuming the OP meant over 1,000 rushing, but the really big catches/yards to make him a PPR monster. McCoy tops this list for me, but Felix, Spiller, and Best (as mentioned above) are guys in redraft leagues that you can get later whom I feel have the same upside this coming season in PPR leagues. As another poster mentioned, the stars pretty much aligned for Raymel last season, and although I answered the question, I don't think any of the four guys I have mentioned have THAT much in their favor.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Minus the 65 catches.ETA: And the yards that come with those 65 catches.

I don't know about that statement...he had 12 catches last season, and that was with Hightower getting pretty much ALL the 3rd down work due to questions about Beanie's blocking prowess.With those questions answered this year, I definitely see 40 catches as a probability. Not 65, but a good 400 yards receiving is a definite possibility.

Something else to consider is how Lienart or whomever will distribute passes. Inexperienced QBs tend to check down more often, and you can only force the ball to Fitz so many times.

 

[JPeso]

Minus the 65 catches.ETA: And the yards that come with those 65 catches.

I don't know about that statement...he had 12 catches last season, and that was with Hightower getting pretty much ALL the 3rd down work due to questions about Beanie's blocking prowess.With those questions answered this year, I definitely see 40 catches as a probability. Not 65, but a good 400 yards receiving is a definite possibility.

Something else to consider is how Lienart or whomever will distribute passes. Inexperienced QBs tend to check down more often, and you can only force the ball to Fitz so many times.

I don't see Leinart checking down more than Warner and that noodle arm last season.