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Who Is Your #1 Dynasty WR? (1 Viewer)
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Khy
Footballguy
This is my view on it as well and I already discussed one part of this in a previous post. Clayton and Smith are both different cases for many reasons.Banger said:
Michael Clayton was similar to Justin Blackmon and just played in an era slightly before the NFL really started it's crack down on substance abuse. Clayton suffered from horrible alcoholism and general lack of interest in the game. It led to poor condition and weight gain and he was never the same player.
Steve Smith completely tore apart his knee and was never the same player, he compares more to Cruz' possibility for this year than Beckham. If Smith had stayed healthy he'd likely have been a perennial pro bowler and Eli would probably have much better career stats right now.
Just blindly comparing post-breakout slumps to this situation does nothing. Comparing Beckham to Clayton is just ridiculous though, it's like saying "What if he's the next Josh Gordon? Why isn't anyone worried about this?"
As for any other situations, plenty of guys (see Williams comma Mike TB) had great rookie seasons and flamed out. That said, none of the guys you can mention visibly showed the dominance on the field of Beckham. It's one thing to put up good fantasy numbers, it's another to show that you're going to rip this league apart. Sometimes, players do both... Randy Moss is a perfect example of this type of guy, Beckham likely is as well.
But if you go back and watch Tampa Mike's highlights of his rookie year, you don't see him high pointing the ball everywhere, breaking peoples ankles with his breaks and just flat out out running the defense. Beckham, from a visual standpoint was special last year. To the point that Richard Sherman even came out after getting beaten by him on several plays and said "Damn, kid can play". This I think is the difference of why I'm not worried about him slumping hard in his sophomore season. Will he regress to the mean slightly? Yeah sure, he's not going to come out this season and post 130 rec, 2000 yards and 20 TDs. I mean he 'could' but I doubt he will. Moss regressed a tad bit too technically. While he rec and yards went up, his yards per reception and TDs dropped. I expect Odell to do the same. I'd say he's a safe bet for Top 3 WR stats if healthy. But he'll likely end the season with 12-14 TDs not 20 TDs like he was on pace for over a full season.
But I can't recall a player that just physically dominated at every point of the game versus the competition who came back the next year significantly worse than they were. Rookie year or not. Typically, the only thing that causes regression like that is injury. Which he currently doesn't have. If he's healthy he's a top WR in this league and I have no doubts about that fact.
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I understand the POV of Giants fans who want to believe they've got a transcendent, once in a lifetime talent. I do.
But we've seen this.
Beckham looks like a very good, very skilled player. But we go down this road all the time with Eli and Coughlin. Is the pedigree a little different here? Sure. But you ignore the lessons of history at your own peril. We're talking about a future HOF coach and a future HOF QB who have a vested interest in making sure the team is as good as it can be, and forcing the ball via tunnel vision to Beckham was a recipe that led to 6-10. Will there be long term benefit to the rapport he and Eli developed while the rest of the receiving corps (AND the RB's) disappointed, disappeared, or healed up? Very likely. And nobody's suggesting that Beckham's going to pull a Steve Smith and disappear from the league in two years.
But they've shown they want balance, and they want SB wins, and they're willing to work to get those things. That's good for the Giants, but regression is the order of the career over there for Eli and Tom. Not regression to any particular mean -- since the guys Eli has developed his year-long hardons for have often come out of nowhere. But regression from the absurd.
And yeah, Beckham's run last year was absurd. It was a delight as a fantasy player and fan. But it's not sustainable for a team that wants to play winning football, unless that team goes in with a gunslinger mentality. Coughlin's Giants don't.
I think Beckham's got about a 60/40 chance of ending the year as WR1 for the Giants, and that's a good thing for that team. Nobody in that organization wants a repeat of last year. They want all the pieces to click, Beckham to do his part, Cruz to do his part, Vereen and whatever other RB's wind up healthy to do theirs, and if all goes well, a nice deep playoff run.
Beckham's primed for a very nice little year that I think will please the hell out of the coaches on that team, and will disappoint practically everyone else.
But we've seen this.
Beckham looks like a very good, very skilled player. But we go down this road all the time with Eli and Coughlin. Is the pedigree a little different here? Sure. But you ignore the lessons of history at your own peril. We're talking about a future HOF coach and a future HOF QB who have a vested interest in making sure the team is as good as it can be, and forcing the ball via tunnel vision to Beckham was a recipe that led to 6-10. Will there be long term benefit to the rapport he and Eli developed while the rest of the receiving corps (AND the RB's) disappointed, disappeared, or healed up? Very likely. And nobody's suggesting that Beckham's going to pull a Steve Smith and disappear from the league in two years.
But they've shown they want balance, and they want SB wins, and they're willing to work to get those things. That's good for the Giants, but regression is the order of the career over there for Eli and Tom. Not regression to any particular mean -- since the guys Eli has developed his year-long hardons for have often come out of nowhere. But regression from the absurd.
And yeah, Beckham's run last year was absurd. It was a delight as a fantasy player and fan. But it's not sustainable for a team that wants to play winning football, unless that team goes in with a gunslinger mentality. Coughlin's Giants don't.
I think Beckham's got about a 60/40 chance of ending the year as WR1 for the Giants, and that's a good thing for that team. Nobody in that organization wants a repeat of last year. They want all the pieces to click, Beckham to do his part, Cruz to do his part, Vereen and whatever other RB's wind up healthy to do theirs, and if all goes well, a nice deep playoff run.
Beckham's primed for a very nice little year that I think will please the hell out of the coaches on that team, and will disappoint practically everyone else.
Pipes
Footballguy
Are you predicting an injury? Anything short of that I don't see how Beckham wouldn't be the WR1 on the Giants. He has way more talent than any other of the Giants pass catchers...not close really. Doesn't mean they won't have a more balance attack it just means when they do throw Beckham will be targeted and targeted often. Odell can have significant regression from the absurd and still put of top 5 WR's numbers this year if he plays a full 16 games.I understand the POV of Giants fans who want to believe they've got a transcendent, once in a lifetime talent. I do.
But we've seen this.
Beckham looks like a very good, very skilled player. But we go down this road all the time with Eli and Coughlin. Is the pedigree a little different here? Sure. But you ignore the lessons of history at your own peril. We're talking about a future HOF coach and a future HOF QB who have a vested interest in making sure the team is as good as it can be, and forcing the ball via tunnel vision to Beckham was a recipe that led to 6-10. Will there be long term benefit to the rapport he and Eli developed while the rest of the receiving corps (AND the RB's) disappointed, disappeared, or healed up? Very likely. And nobody's suggesting that Beckham's going to pull a Steve Smith and disappear from the league in two years.
But they've shown they want balance, and they want SB wins, and they're willing to work to get those things. That's good for the Giants, but regression is the order of the career over there for Eli and Tom. Not regression to any particular mean -- since the guys Eli has developed his year-long hardons for have often come out of nowhere. But regression from the absurd.
And yeah, Beckham's run last year was absurd. It was a delight as a fantasy player and fan. But it's not sustainable for a team that wants to play winning football, unless that team goes in with a gunslinger mentality. Coughlin's Giants don't.
I think Beckham's got about a 60/40 chance of ending the year as WR1 for the Giants, and that's a good thing for that team. Nobody in that organization wants a repeat of last year. They want all the pieces to click, Beckham to do his part, Cruz to do his part, Vereen and whatever other RB's wind up healthy to do theirs, and if all goes well, a nice deep playoff run.
Beckham's primed for a very nice little year that I think will please the hell out of the coaches on that team, and will disappoint practically everyone else.
In particular, you ought to roll your eyes at the idea that anything like his last four game run will happen again.
Over that stretch, he averaged like 16 targets a game, while guys like Preston Parker and Kevin Ogletree did duty as the second leading pass receiver. Antonio Brown had almost 140 receptions last year, and reached 16 targets in a game one time.
If that happens again, I look for Tom Coughlin to burn down the stadium.
Over that stretch, he averaged like 16 targets a game, while guys like Preston Parker and Kevin Ogletree did duty as the second leading pass receiver. Antonio Brown had almost 140 receptions last year, and reached 16 targets in a game one time.
If that happens again, I look for Tom Coughlin to burn down the stadium.
Khy
Footballguy
Hold on... you think Beckham has a 60/40 chance of ending the year as the GIANTS WR1? Not as a fantasy WR1 just as the Giants WR1. I don't even understand that, that alone made me have to re-read your entire post just to get your point again.I understand the POV of Giants fans who want to believe they've got a transcendent, once in a lifetime talent. I do.
But we've seen this.
Beckham looks like a very good, very skilled player. But we go down this road all the time with Eli and Coughlin. Is the pedigree a little different here? Sure. But you ignore the lessons of history at your own peril. We're talking about a future HOF coach and a future HOF QB who have a vested interest in making sure the team is as good as it can be, and forcing the ball via tunnel vision to Beckham was a recipe that led to 6-10. Will there be long term benefit to the rapport he and Eli developed while the rest of the receiving corps (AND the RB's) disappointed, disappeared, or healed up? Very likely. And nobody's suggesting that Beckham's going to pull a Steve Smith and disappear from the league in two years.
But they've shown they want balance, and they want SB wins, and they're willing to work to get those things. That's good for the Giants, but regression is the order of the career over there for Eli and Tom. Not regression to any particular mean -- since the guys Eli has developed his year-long hardons for have often come out of nowhere. But regression from the absurd.
And yeah, Beckham's run last year was absurd. It was a delight as a fantasy player and fan. But it's not sustainable for a team that wants to play winning football, unless that team goes in with a gunslinger mentality. Coughlin's Giants don't.
I think Beckham's got about a 60/40 chance of ending the year as WR1 for the Giants, and that's a good thing for that team. Nobody in that organization wants a repeat of last year. They want all the pieces to click, Beckham to do his part, Cruz to do his part, Vereen and whatever other RB's wind up healthy to do theirs, and if all goes well, a nice deep playoff run.
Beckham's primed for a very nice little year that I think will please the hell out of the coaches on that team, and will disappoint practically everyone else.
As a Giants fan it's not about wanting Beckham to be a trancending talent. It's about how he IS a trancending talent and I feel he more than proved that last year on the field. You're acting like he's a volume guy and without a massive volume he won't see stats. What he did on the field last year had nothing to do with the volume he was given. I don't even understand how someone who watched even one game the second half of last season could make that diagnosis. Beckham got that many targets because he deserved it and was open on every play. You don't have to scheme for Beckham, he can play outside or inside. He can run every route in the book. The fact is, he started his eruption BECAUSE he was getting open on every play, not because he was force fed the ball. His ability was shown prior to Cruz's departure and after it.
Week 5 was his premier. The Giants had 68 snaps, Beckham played on 36 of them. In those 36 snaps he saw 5 targets and had 4 receptions for 44 yards and a TD. During this game, Cruz, Donnel, Jennings, Randle were all players active. Beckham's eruption would have happened with or without Cruz. I doubt his stats would've been much more without him, fact is based on that ONE game and a small sample size the Giants immediately plugged Beckham in as a starter in the next game against Philadelphia. Everyone was healthy for that game, he started because they watched his tape against Atlanta and saw what everyone did. By Week 7 he was an every down player on the team and I think even without Cruz's injury would've ended up seeing that same amount of playing time RoS.
Beckham is not a one trick pony. He can do essentially everything asked of a WR on the field. He can play the XY&Z, he can run any route you can name and he did them all to elite levels last year. There's no reason to expect that to regress. I feel like there's this stigma with the Giants this era where everything is always "got lucky". They got lucky winning the first Super Bowl, Eli's pure dominance in the post-season is luck,somehow the second Super Bowl was also pure luck, Odell Beckham's breakout season was a fluke. Etc. etc.
People seem to constantly want to write off the Giants and their players are 'flukes'. I don't see anyone talking about how Mike Evans won't reproduce his stats next season. Evans saw 8, count them 8 less targets than OBJ did last season. With that he finished with 23 less receptions, about 300 less yards and the same TDs. And similar to when I predicted Doug Martin regressing in his sophomore year, Evans had half of his production in 3 games. 21 of his 68 receptions, 458 of his 1051 yards came across 3 games as did 5 of his 12 TDs. You subtract those 3 games and based on his remaining 13, he extrapolates out to stats of 57 receptions 729 yards and 8.6 TDs over the season. Not very good, he dominated in three games and did little to nothing in his other 13.
Beckham on the other hand? You'd have to subtract his entire season except the Philly game if you wanted to get rid of his 'best' games. Even if we get rid of his 3 best games, his season still extrapolates to 84 receptions 1088 yards and 9 TDs across only 12 games, if we bump that up to 16 games he still has an obnoxious season.
My point being, everyone is on "What if Beckham regresses" when Beckham proved it over the course of every game. Evans proved it over 3 games, that's it, 3. Outside those 3 games, Evans didn't post another 100 yard game, he didn't post another game with more than 5 receptions and he only had 1 other game with more than 1 TD. It's not even close, if I'm picking a regressing target for sophomores this year it's Evans by over a mile.
Khy
Footballguy
He averaged that soley from his 21 targets in Week 17. I also don't see why we're just disgussing his "last four games". Why not just get rid of his last 9 games while we're at it? As all 9 were complete dominance on his part. Beckham posted at least 6 receptions and 90 yards over each of his last 9 games. Seven of those nine were 100+ yard games. Three of nine were multi TD games. Five of the nine he scored a TD. He had a 12.7 target average and a 9 reception average over that course. And those averages get really messed up because of his 21 target 12 reception game to end the season, it's unlikely he'll see 21 targets at any point this year. I much like the 12 target/game pace he was on from week 8 to 15 as a better baseline. During that stint he averaged the same 9 reception average. More or less, he caught everything thrown his way and that was with the defense more or less focusing completely on him. Bring in Cruz and maybe Amari Cooper/Kevin White/Devante Parker as a possible draft choice? I feel like he only gets better. He's easily the type of guy to average 10 targets and 9 receptions a game. I honestly can't recall a single catchable ball he dropped last year.
That type of guy doesn't exist.
This hyperbole is why words like "overhyped" exist.
He's good. He may even be great. He's not so great that the metrics used to define the best receivers in the history of the game simply can't do him justice. I gave him better than even odds to lead the team in receiving vs a guy who went 80/1600/9 a couple years ago, and is just now entering his prime.
People want more. It ain't comin'.
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Banger
Footballguy
They started winning when they force fed Beckham. Go check the stats. If they want to win they need to get the ball in their best players hands and they will.I understand the POV of Giants fans who want to believe they've got a transcendent, once in a lifetime talent. I do.
But we've seen this.
Beckham looks like a very good, very skilled player. But we go down this road all the time with Eli and Coughlin. Is the pedigree a little different here? Sure. But you ignore the lessons of history at your own peril. We're talking about a future HOF coach and a future HOF QB who have a vested interest in making sure the team is as good as it can be, and forcing the ball via tunnel vision to Beckham was a recipe that led to 6-10. Will there be long term benefit to the rapport he and Eli developed while the rest of the receiving corps (AND the RB's) disappointed, disappeared, or healed up? Very likely. And nobody's suggesting that Beckham's going to pull a Steve Smith and disappear from the league in two years.
But they've shown they want balance, and they want SB wins, and they're willing to work to get those things. That's good for the Giants, but regression is the order of the career over there for Eli and Tom. Not regression to any particular mean -- since the guys Eli has developed his year-long hardons for have often come out of nowhere. But regression from the absurd.
And yeah, Beckham's run last year was absurd. It was a delight as a fantasy player and fan. But it's not sustainable for a team that wants to play winning football, unless that team goes in with a gunslinger mentality. Coughlin's Giants don't.
I think Beckham's got about a 60/40 chance of ending the year as WR1 for the Giants, and that's a good thing for that team. Nobody in that organization wants a repeat of last year. They want all the pieces to click, Beckham to do his part, Cruz to do his part, Vereen and whatever other RB's wind up healthy to do theirs, and if all goes well, a nice deep playoff run.
Beckham's primed for a very nice little year that I think will please the hell out of the coaches on that team, and will disappoint practically everyone else.
I think your example fails to drive your point home. Steve Smith, after doing it once in NYC, was not heralded as the next big thing, particularly in fantasy and dynasty circles. He just got done with a fantastic year in 2009, and no one was talking about him as a top 5 WR, much less the #1 overall dynasty player. In two startups for me that year, he was drafted in the mid 4th round. Good, but nothing that NYC hype had anything to do with from what I recall.Shutout said:
The fact that you wondered how few people even realized how good a season he had belies the assertion that anything done once in NYC gets extra attention.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
Just FYI, but I believe Beckham had the league's #2 receiving score by PFF to Antonio Brown despite missing the early part of the year. He did it as a rookie having missed camp time, preseason, etc. He just blew the doors off. He's my #1 WR but I have to do a little more research into hamstring injuries. Some guys really had their careers derailed by them. Outside of that, I'm just going by the numbers and what I saw. He's probably going to be the kingpin, a truly transcendent talent, barring injuries.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Just for some clarity, for anyone saying Beckham won't match his stats from last year every again, do you mean total number or points per game?
If you are saying total numbers that is just silly.
If you are saying PPG, well, duh. That isn't a knock. It's fairly likely that no player in history every again gets those PPG for a full year.
If you are saying total numbers that is just silly.
If you are saying PPG, well, duh. That isn't a knock. It's fairly likely that no player in history every again gets those PPG for a full year.
Khy
Footballguy
If you honestly think there's a chance not barring injury that Beckham does not finish the season leading the Giants in receptions, yards and TDs you must be high. Also, how is Cruz entering his prime? He just had an injury that somwhere in the range of about 60% of players never even return from. There is no 60/40 chance that Beckham finishes as the Giants WR1, there's a 99/1 chance he does that. There's probably about a 60/40 chance that Cruz is never the same player that he was before last year. Bear in mind that I'm a lifelong GIants fan and have no interest in lying about my worries for Cruz. Fact is, research I've done into it out of curiosity says most players never return from the injury he had. The best thing going for him is that he was still realtivtily young when it happened. So I have hope that can help him in his recovery process.That type of guy doesn't exist.
This hyperbole is why words like "overhyped" exist.
He's good. He may even be great. He's not so great that the metrics used to define the best receivers in the history of the game simply can't do him justice. I gave him better than even odds to lead the team in receiving vs a guy who went 80/1600/9 a couple years ago, and is just now entering his prime.
People want more. It ain't comin'.
That said, even if Cruz comes back to 100% his old self, he was never even close to the type of talent that Beckham showed on the field last season. Your assertion that the Giants and Eli hone in on one random player every year is asinine and only further proves to me that you've never actually followed the team or watched the games. You're simply looking at historial stats and trying to use that to prove your point. But your point is still wrong. This is simply not a fact, the Giants ride their best player. For an actual example of this, look at Tiki Barber in the first several years of Eli and Coughlin's reign. Beckham will be similar, they may not force feed him the ball but he will definitely lead the team in targets by a good margin.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Victor cruz is entering his prime now??
This forum is taking years off my life
This forum is taking years off my life
Khy
Footballguy
Yeah, a 28 year old WR who will turn 29 before the seasons over is 'entering his prime'. I suppose Calvin Johnson is entering his prime too. I think people aren't realizing Cruz is almost 29 and coming off a major injury. It's part of the reason I'm fully buying into the possibility that the Giants take a receiver again at #9. I'm hoping they land an edge defender but I won't complain if they walk away with Parker, White or Cooper by any stretch. The idea of White and OBJ lining up together is actually rather terrifying.
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Shutout
Footballguy
That was also in an era when people completely whiffed on Victor Cruz, also. Just because people miss things unless they are bludgeoned over the head with it doesn't make it any less true.
The facts are still there. Steve Smith was an absolute after-thought/nonthought before he ended up as a top 10 fantasy WR. Cruz came from nowhere for the same.
THE POINT was that, on this team with this QB and HC, in the city of New York, we have seen several times (even with the Jets with Sanchez for a minute or two) that guys have found themselves in a situation where they flat out tore the lid off of it and the media creates a more powerful buzz there than anywhere else and that drives perception.
Look at Larry Donnell. Wasn't there a bout a three week period during the first month of the season where he was getting massive attention? A NYC team playing games in prime time has all the fuel it needs.
I think Freelove has it dead on. It's not like people are saying Beckham isn't GREAT. But that seems not good enough. People hyping him up seems as if they will settle for nothing less than "he is what Jerry Rice wanted to be and everyone else needs to acknowledge they are playing for 2nd place".
But when you look at ALL the factors, you see that this simply isn't sustainable. Even the guys that are saying "well, teams can't adjust to him because he's had time to develop...". Come on. This is the NFL. These are people whose sole existence is to invest 100 hours a week studying what they just saw and adapting to it.
Calvin Johnson is probably the most beastly combination of a player I have ever seen. If he didn't just become Detroit Jesus for a decade, nobody will. Reggie White and Lawrence Taylor were the most disruptive defenders I have ever seen. Complete game changers. And they were spectacular and had seasons that would make fantasy owners proud. But even they didn't just roll out of bed and sustain impossible forecasts.
If Beckham starts the first month of the season with "only 350 yards and 27 catches and 4 TDs, people are going to ignore the fact that averages 7/90/1 and will be whining and moaning. Not because he's not a top WR but because he failed to live up to the expectations (and price people are currently giving).
Khy
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure if he averages 7 receptions, 90 yards and 1 TD a game... that'd be right where people are projecting him. Thats 112 receptions, 1440 yards and 16 TDs. I figured a safe projection for him is 100 receptions, 1550 yards and 12 TDs. I'm not sure where you and others are getting these expectations of people expecting him to put up 150 receptions, 2200 yards and 20 TDs. All the 'doubters' of him being dynasty WR1 are acting like those are the projections on him right now and anything else will be a disappointment. I just don't understand where that's coming from, show me a post or article where someone projects him anywhere close to those ridiculous numbers he was on pace for last year.
Barring injury I think he 'floor' is: 90 receptions, 1400 yards, 8 TDs
His ceiling isn't something I believe can be quantifiable. As we saw what he did over the last 8 games of the season, theoretically that's has to be his perceived ceiling. That said, even the best WR season in history imo Jerry Rice 1995 had one or two down games. So for his ceiling projection lets do this correctly and assume he plays to his highest ability like he did to end the half of last season. In those last 8 games he averaged:
9.13 receptions, 130.38 yards and 1.13 TDs per game. Now, we'll extrapolate that to 14 games to account for 2 'down' games. We come to 127 receptions, 1825 yards, 16 TDs. Now, we'll assume a down game for him by averaging his two worse games last season. So for that you get about 3 receptions, 36 yards and 0.5 TDs.
So that comes to a 'ceiling' of 133 receptions, 1897 yards and 17 TDs.
Now is this a high ceiling? No, I don't think so. Not really at least, its definitely one of the best seasons of a WR in history if it happens. That said, I don't think it's better than Rice's season simply because of the time period and rules difference. Nor would I say it's better than Calvin's record breaking season as that was a destruction season. Calvin's 5 TDs that year doesn't even tell the story as I can't even remember how many times I watched him get tackled at the 1 yard line that year. It was painful to watch. He could've easily had 15-20 TDs instead of 5 that year.
So just to recap:
Floor: 90 receptions, 1400 yards, 8 TDs
Actual Projection: 100 receptions, 1550 yards, 12 TDs
Ceiling: 133 receptions, 1900 yards, 17 TDs
I feel none of these are unobtainable based on what he showed last year. And barring injury I don't see how he fails to hit those floor numbers. He's not Michael Clayton or Mike Williams or Steve Smith, all these guys had injuries or character concerns going into their sophomore years. He has neither of those concerns. At least not right now, there's no guarantee he doesn't tear an ACL in mini-camps or preseason, it's happened before. But for this moment I think those projections are fair and perfectly normal. If you feel otherwise, I'd like to hear your reasons.
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
how much money would people be willing to bet that beckham will have the best three years of any wr in the nfl?
Khy
Footballguy
How so? In 8 games last year (half a season) he obtained better levels than that with the same Eli Manning.This year will be the second year of the system for both of them as well. Seemingly they should only become more productive and efficient, not less. People seem to forget that Beckham didn't take a single snap of mini-camp, training camp or preseason play. He came in based on nothing more than studying a playbook and did what he did over those 12 games. Give him an entire offseason to prep and continue to build a repertoire with Manning? I see no reason why he can't reach at least 85% of what they did together last year.
Over the last 8 games last year he averaged what would be a 16 game season of 146 Receptions, 2086 yards and 18 TDs. He's already achieved significantly higher than my projected ceiling with the same QB you're saying makes his ceiling unobtainable.
Eli Manning has consistently lifted players stats around him, you can claim that Eli isn't an elite QB all you want. That has never stopped him from giving almost every receiving option to come into the Giants and leave, the best seasons of their careers. I can't think of a player that left he team and had a better season then when they were on the team.
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Khy
Footballguy
Are we saying cumulative stats? Like over the next 3 years he'll have say (purely example, just spitting out numbers that make it obviously 3 seasons worth of work) 300 receptions, 5000 yards and 40 TDs which is better than anyone else? Or simply that he'll have the best three seasons each of the next three years?
FUBAR
Footballguy
He started 11 games last year. Let's check his worst 6; average of 5.6/80.5/0, over 16 games that's 91/1288/0That type of guy doesn't exist.
This hyperbole is why words like "overhyped" exist.
He's good. He may even be great. He's not so great that the metrics used to define the best receivers in the history of the game simply can't do him justice. I gave him better than even odds to lead the team in receiving vs a guy who went 80/1600/9 a couple years ago, and is just now entering his prime.
People want more. It ain't comin'.
If that's his floor (and shouldn't a player's worst games be his floor?), I'll gladly take it. Granted, more TDs would be nice.
Khy
Footballguy
Yeah... I'm pretty sure 91 receptions, 1288 yards and zero TDs would be one of the most polarizing and confusing season ending statlines in history.He started 11 games last year. Let's check his worst 6; average of 5.6/80.5/0, over 16 games that's 91/1288/0That type of guy doesn't exist.
This hyperbole is why words like "overhyped" exist.
He's good. He may even be great. He's not so great that the metrics used to define the best receivers in the history of the game simply can't do him justice. I gave him better than even odds to lead the team in receiving vs a guy who went 80/1600/9 a couple years ago, and is just now entering his prime.
People want more. It ain't comin'.
If that's his floor (and shouldn't a player's worst games be his floor?), I'll gladly take it. Granted, more TDs would be nice.
Khy
Footballguy
Look, I'll boil it down to this.
Before Lawrence Taylor was considered the best LB to ever play the game, there were others before him. For the first few years of his 'reign' I'm sure people were saying the same stuff you're saying about Beckham now "Lets hold the phone on the mold for his Canton bust".
Same goes for all the greats, Jerry Rice wasn't always the next Jerry Rice. I'm sure when Rice broke onto the scene it was "relax before we start calling him better than Steve Largent".
And the list goes on, nobody is considered a great until they are... it's silly to just dismiss what we saw last season because "it's impossible for him to maintain that level of play". Even if he does maintain 80% of that level he'd still be posting season to season statlines of 116 receptions, 1670 yards and 15 TDs. Yeah, that'd be at 80% of his last year production. Nobody is saying he's the second coming of Jerry Rice or Randy Moss or anyone for that matter. We're just saying what he showed us on the field last season leaves little doubt that by the end of his career there's at least a 10% chance he could be hailed as one of the GOATs. And that's more than could be said for 99% of players in the NFL today.
Simple fact is, he did what he did last year. Meaning he could do it again. And he could do it multiple times. He's already done it, so stop saying it's impossible. How can something that's already happened be impossible? How can you say he can't post an average of 9 receptions, 130 ypg and 1.13 TDs per game, with Eli Manning at QB when he ALREADY DID IT last year? Will he post those averages again? Doubtful, could he? Well yeah, it already happened.
Before Lawrence Taylor was considered the best LB to ever play the game, there were others before him. For the first few years of his 'reign' I'm sure people were saying the same stuff you're saying about Beckham now "Lets hold the phone on the mold for his Canton bust".
Same goes for all the greats, Jerry Rice wasn't always the next Jerry Rice. I'm sure when Rice broke onto the scene it was "relax before we start calling him better than Steve Largent".
And the list goes on, nobody is considered a great until they are... it's silly to just dismiss what we saw last season because "it's impossible for him to maintain that level of play". Even if he does maintain 80% of that level he'd still be posting season to season statlines of 116 receptions, 1670 yards and 15 TDs. Yeah, that'd be at 80% of his last year production. Nobody is saying he's the second coming of Jerry Rice or Randy Moss or anyone for that matter. We're just saying what he showed us on the field last season leaves little doubt that by the end of his career there's at least a 10% chance he could be hailed as one of the GOATs. And that's more than could be said for 99% of players in the NFL today.
Simple fact is, he did what he did last year. Meaning he could do it again. And he could do it multiple times. He's already done it, so stop saying it's impossible. How can something that's already happened be impossible? How can you say he can't post an average of 9 receptions, 130 ypg and 1.13 TDs per game, with Eli Manning at QB when he ALREADY DID IT last year? Will he post those averages again? Doubtful, could he? Well yeah, it already happened.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
THIS is where we get this stuff. A floor..a "cant do any WORSE THAN almost 100 balls and FOURTEEN HUNDRED yards.
So, yardage wise, his most pitiful effort is what would be top FIVE last year and his catch count is what would be top TEN. ok. His most terrible production is he is a top 7 or so WR in the NFL...BUT WAIT! There's UPSIDE. This guy's "ho-hum" upside is more yards than every single recorded season in the NFL with the exception of Meagatron's 2012 yardage year and the catches would be top 5 all-time too.
No big deal. Just a day at the office (a half-day, maybe) for a 2nd year player playing with a QB who is known to have bad stretches, playing for a team that has a defensive and run-game mentality but pretty much abandoned both last year when both sides of the ball got hit with injuries. I mean, he'll have to share with 2-3 WRs coming back from their own injuries, too so maybe we could curb that upside down to something closer to 1850, okay?
That's just the reality of it. SOme of you guys have this floor AND ceiling so high that if he ONLY gets 1200 yards (a number that would be top 10 in any year the past 5-6 seasons), a lot of people will be acting like he's 2014 Dwayne Bowe or something. The guys who already own him MIGHT be wise enough to say "hey, it was a perfect storm last year...shoulda known" but the people backing the truck up for him will feel like it was around here about two years ago when Trent Richardosn and his "can't fail" upside with Norv Turner went south.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
I'm considering taking offer right now for Beckham
He and Evans were on my do-not-touch list.... but I think Ill just field a few to see if someone is willing to make me a very, very rich man.
at the point now, I feel like someone will give me a Dez/Julio + a 1st just to say they have him
He and Evans were on my do-not-touch list.... but I think Ill just field a few to see if someone is willing to make me a very, very rich man.
at the point now, I feel like someone will give me a Dez/Julio + a 1st just to say they have him
Shutout
Footballguy
You should buy a book on outliers or strange weather phenomenon. Just because something happens once doesn't mean that IS the norm.
Look at your own comments. "Nobody is considered great until they are". So we can't say Jerry Rice is great until he does it for several years but we can say Beckham is already....cause it happened? Michael Clayton happened...once. Jermaine Crowell happened...once. That happened.
You're right. You're not saying he's a second coming..of ANYONE..You're saying he's THE coming of the GOAT with these numbers.
It's just to the point it is ridiculous. Dream on. Dream big. Good luck
Shutout
Footballguy
you should. There will never be a better return. I don't know why people tend not to learn from history. Sure, sometimes you draft Bowie and miss Jordan..but that's the thing. We are talking about once in a lifetime players. Beckham could be that guy but the odds and scenarios and situations of the NFL lean heavily against him.
It was just THREE years ago when we had this same exact conversation about Trent Richardson. That partial season worth of production combined with Norv Turner combined with this number and that game, etc was just the tip of the Ice burg. There was NO way this guy wasn't the #2dynasty RB, behind only Adrian Peterson. Less than 1000 days ago, people and what can you get today for a guy that almost NOBODY could see a flaw in 1000 days ago?
Khy
Footballguy
Umm... what? How am I saying that? I'm saying that every year on these forums everyone tries to downplay any promising young star. Sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong. That said, every single time I can recall these downplays in the past there's been valid reasons. At least, more valid than "He can't do that again". There's been provable things, like I proposed that Doug Martin would fall off a cliff in his thread after his rookie season because the majority of his production came in two games. That is a worthwhile point as to why someone would fall off a cliff and it happened. Some, myself included proposed that Richardson wasn't nearly as good as his statline suggested as he posted pretty awful average numbers (3.6ypc) and looked slow and indecisive on the field. He was mostly a product of volume in his rookie year and it was obvious if you took as step back and didn't look through rose covered glasses.
Give me one, quantifiable reason that you can gather from Beckham's rookie season that he can't continue?
Cruz coming back? Not good enough, as I said earlier in this thread, almost all the top WRs have other people competing for receptions. Jordy has Cobb, Jeffery had Marshall, Cruz had Nicks, Demaryius Thomas had JT, Decker, Sanders and Welker etc. This is if anything a reason why his production should rise, not fall.
He can't be elite with Eli at QB? Not good enough, he was already elite with Eli at QB last season. That alone proves this statement as wrong.
HIstory tells us he won't? How so, there are plenty of great WRs right now. This isn't a thread about him being an all-time great. It's a thread asking about his dynasty prospects, are you saying history tells us that a rookie WR won't be a top dynasty WR? Cause at one point or another all of the guys in this poll were rookies. And at one point or another this same argument was had of "There's no way they'll be as good as X". These are all bs cop out arguments. For every Michael Clayton and Crowell there's a Antonio Brown and Wes Welker. There are exceptions on both sides of the argument which kind of balances that argument out to mostly useless.
What about his actual game do you think will change this year? What were the holes?
Was he too slow? Nope
Did he drop a lot of passes and only dominated due to volume? Nope, he converted better than almost any WR in the league
Did he run sub par routes and he was a product of just getting lucky to get open? Definitely not
Was he forced targets in the end zone that inflated his TD numbers? Not really, Beckham had 27 red zone targets, Donnell 22, Randle saw 21. So that can't be it, the #1 option should get more looks but that's still a good spread of red zone targets.
So what was it, give me some form of quantifiable statistic that shows some reason he would regress so much so to fall to a 1200 yard season this year? Richardson had a low ypc and showed consistent bad vision on tape. Martin had 2 massive games and then did next to nothing in his other 14. Clayton had a known alcohol addiction that forced him from the league. Steve Smith tore up his knee in the middle of his sophomore year but prior to that was on the same pace as his rookie season. So please, give me just one REAL reason besides 'your pessimistic gut feeling' as to why he'll fall.
Khy
Footballguy
ON a pure curiosity level... say Beckham does post season stats this year of lets say something in the range of 125 receptions, 1900 yards and 18 TDs. Purely hypotheticaly.
What then, are we still making excuses as to why he'll be overdrafted, not as good, can't do it with Eli, can't do it again etc? Hell, lets even post the same question if he puts up 105 receptions, 1550 yards and 12 TDs? Are we still making excuses why he shouldn't be the dynasty #1 WR? And why he won't be an all time great?
I'm not trying to defend his status as the #1 dynasty WR, if anyone cared to look I stated already that I voted for Brown because for now I feel like Brown has more consistency to his name and is still young enough to fall in the 5 year elite window that I set when trying to establish dynasty value.
I'm arguing against the bs arguments people use to dismiss players in general (not just Beckham). Things like "He'll never do that again" or "I'd bet money thats the best season he ever posts". With no actual backing to the argument. It's the fantasy equivilant of putting your fingers in your ears and yelling at someone whose trying to explain something to you and just yelling "NOPE. YOU'RE WRONG. LALALALALALA". All I'm saying is nobody has posed any legitimate argument with evidance to back it up.
"I'd bet money that he's already had his best season" - Tell me why... I've said this before too with players. But backed it up with reasons. I said it with Doug Martin, I felt like it wasn't a good sign that he posted most of his stats in 2 games. Everyone else said "You can't do that, it's not a good way to evaluate a player". And continued to say that even after I gave other evidance of one year wonders who had similar issues of most of their stats coming in a small part of the season. Hell, I have similar worries about Mike Evans this season as just like Martin he had 3 MASSIVE games and then 13 games that were less than average.
All I'm saying is I want evidance for ANY player, not Beckham. It just so happens to be this case is a discussion on OBJ. I just don't feel that it helps the discussion to simply write off a player who did what he did last year with random generic claims that you have no backing for otherwise. As I said, give me quantifiable evidiance of any kind that he won't be the player we saw last year and I'll listen ot that. Even if it's something to the effect of a historical fact of Top 12 NFL drafted WRs and their success rate on a career level. But give me something.
You're all saying "He could be the next Michael Clayton" and I'm responding with "Yeah, or the next Jerry Rice". Why is the former not a big deal but the later is "HAHAHA YOU'RE CALLING HIM JERRY RICE!". I'm not saying he will be the next Jerry Rice, just pointing out the idocy of comparing him to an outlier like Clayton by comparing him to another outlier like Rice.
What then, are we still making excuses as to why he'll be overdrafted, not as good, can't do it with Eli, can't do it again etc? Hell, lets even post the same question if he puts up 105 receptions, 1550 yards and 12 TDs? Are we still making excuses why he shouldn't be the dynasty #1 WR? And why he won't be an all time great?
I'm not trying to defend his status as the #1 dynasty WR, if anyone cared to look I stated already that I voted for Brown because for now I feel like Brown has more consistency to his name and is still young enough to fall in the 5 year elite window that I set when trying to establish dynasty value.
I'm arguing against the bs arguments people use to dismiss players in general (not just Beckham). Things like "He'll never do that again" or "I'd bet money thats the best season he ever posts". With no actual backing to the argument. It's the fantasy equivilant of putting your fingers in your ears and yelling at someone whose trying to explain something to you and just yelling "NOPE. YOU'RE WRONG. LALALALALALA". All I'm saying is nobody has posed any legitimate argument with evidance to back it up.
"I'd bet money that he's already had his best season" - Tell me why... I've said this before too with players. But backed it up with reasons. I said it with Doug Martin, I felt like it wasn't a good sign that he posted most of his stats in 2 games. Everyone else said "You can't do that, it's not a good way to evaluate a player". And continued to say that even after I gave other evidance of one year wonders who had similar issues of most of their stats coming in a small part of the season. Hell, I have similar worries about Mike Evans this season as just like Martin he had 3 MASSIVE games and then 13 games that were less than average.
All I'm saying is I want evidance for ANY player, not Beckham. It just so happens to be this case is a discussion on OBJ. I just don't feel that it helps the discussion to simply write off a player who did what he did last year with random generic claims that you have no backing for otherwise. As I said, give me quantifiable evidiance of any kind that he won't be the player we saw last year and I'll listen ot that. Even if it's something to the effect of a historical fact of Top 12 NFL drafted WRs and their success rate on a career level. But give me something.
You're all saying "He could be the next Michael Clayton" and I'm responding with "Yeah, or the next Jerry Rice". Why is the former not a big deal but the later is "HAHAHA YOU'RE CALLING HIM JERRY RICE!". I'm not saying he will be the next Jerry Rice, just pointing out the idocy of comparing him to an outlier like Clayton by comparing him to another outlier like Rice.
FUBAR
Footballguy
we were? The exact same? Partial season? Trent played 15 games with 3 over 100 yards.Shutout said:
Now, we probably did discuss him as a top player given 1317 yards and 12 TDs, but I don't remember having this same conversation. And I owned him for his first couple years after making the worst trade of my FF "career" - something like Dez and a late 1st for the 1.01 (Trent).
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
A whole lot of people thought Trent was a clear top-3 dynasty RB, and the debate then was basically "convince me he isn't the outright #1 RB." It is amazing to see how easily people can revise history.we were? The exact same? Partial season? Trent played 15 games with 3 over 100 yards.Shutout said:
Now, we probably did discuss him as a top player given 1317 yards and 12 TDs, but I don't remember having this same conversation. And I owned him for his first couple years after making the worst trade of my FF "career" - something like Dez and a late 1st for the 1.01 (Trent).
Khy
Footballguy
That goes back to my point above though... that same year (2013) a whole lot of people felt Andrew Luck was a clear top 3 dynasty QB and the debate was basically "convince me he isn't the outright #1 QB" and guess what, he was and is now. Same argument was made for RG3 who wasn't and so on. My point being there are exceptions to every rule. I don't find it fair to say:A whole lot of people thought Trent was a clear top-3 dynasty RB, and the debate then was basically "convince me he isn't the outright #1 RB." It is amazing to see how easily people can revise history.we were? The exact same? Partial season? Trent played 15 games with 3 over 100 yards.Shutout said:
Now, we probably did discuss him as a top player given 1317 yards and 12 TDs, but I don't remember having this same conversation. And I owned him for his first couple years after making the worst trade of my FF "career" - something like Dez and a late 1st for the 1.01 (Trent).
We were anointing X Y and Z as the second coming too and they ended up busting.
But not to accept the reverse the same way. Yeah, there's a risk but right now if I'm taking a risk on any 1 player in dynasty it's Odell Beckham Jr. For the simple fact of what he did last year. We could get burned like with RG3 or Richardson. Or you could get the top WR for the next 5+ years. Either way the risk is there. If you sell him for say Mike Evans and the 1.01 and Evans ends up sucking this year and Gurley never recovers from his ACL and Beckham ends up posting similar per game stats as last year, you'll want to jump off the fantasy football bridge onto a 4 land highway. By that same token, if you turn down that trade offer and Beckham ends up having 30 receptions for 400 yards and 2 TDs while Evans rocks on to 100 receptions, 1700 yards and 20 TDs and Gurley has the best rookie RB season since Adrian Peterson, you'll do the same.
Again, my point is that you can't say "What if this extreme" without the opposite extreme playing in as well. Both Michael Clayton/Steve Smith and Jerry Rice/Randy Moss are two massive extreme outliers on different sides of the same coin.
To be sure.A whole lot of people thought Trent was a clear top-3 dynasty RB, and the debate then was basically "convince me he isn't the outright #1 RB." It is amazing to see how easily people can revise history.we were? The exact same? Partial season? Trent played 15 games with 3 over 100 yards.Shutout said:
Now, we probably did discuss him as a top player given 1317 yards and 12 TDs, but I don't remember having this same conversation. And I owned him for his first couple years after making the worst trade of my FF "career" - something like Dez and a late 1st for the 1.01 (Trent).
I'd stop shy of calling it the "exact same situation," though, because most of the people talking up TRich weren't so much sold on the idea that he was a transcendent talent -- everybody had seen he was a compiler his rookie year. But the Browns had a couple really good, young linemen, and had just added Norv Turner, whose systems had a history of producing top-flight fantasy RB's. Beckham is kind of the opposite, since people do witness and acknowledge the talent, but many see a system (and supporting cast) that has a history of reigning in that kind of talent.
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Khy
Footballguy
I agree to an extent but extrapolating 12 games to 16 isn't that crazy. It's not like Beckham had 4 huge games and 8 mediocre ones and we're not taking that into account. Pretty much all of his games were amazing after he was an every down player. To me it's a different extrapolation than that of what usually occurs on these forums.
Khy
Footballguy
If you read my post about his ceiling you'd know my answer already. As I clearly stated above:
I extrapolated his half season of 'dominance' to 14 games no 16. Assuming even in a best case scenario he has 2 down games. So my answer would be he doesn't.
Now if you change the question to something reasonable like:
"Whats more likely he has 14 amazing games in a single season or he has 14 mediocre games in a single season?"
I think I'd take my money and put it on amazing games. But your question as stated seems to be all or nothing, either every game is amazing or none are.
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Run It Up
Footballguy
Khy
Footballguy
Just out of curiosity, are you disagreeing that he was nearly on that pace over 12 games last year? His pace last year was 121 receptions, 1726 yards and 17 TDs. I only took his last 8 games into account when making my projections because he wasn't a every down player until week 7. If I include Week 7 and 8 (the 2 games I excluded) into the calculation to extrapolate 14 games it's actually just more of the same. His reception totals go up to 136, his yards drop by about 100 total to 1798 and his TDs stay exactly the same at 17. Personally, I feel it's fair to exclude weeks 5 and 6 as he was a player they knew nothing about just coming off an injury that has a history of being a nagging injury in a hamstring. So he saw limited snaps and wasn't a big part of the game plan going into those games. The following week Cruz was down and they had no choice but to involve him. And the RoY he averaged 8.5 receptions, 123.3 yards and 1.1 TDs per game. This year he's not only going to be a part of the game plan he'll be THE gameplan. No matter how you crunch the numbers, he was playing at the level I posted as his 'ceiling' for damn near an entire season with the same QB you think makes it impossible for him to reach the projected ceiling he already reached with Eli.
Khy
Footballguy
One thing I feel people aren't taking into account with Beckham vs the previous massive sophomore slump guys in Richardson and Clayton etc. is his drive. The kid has the mentality of being better than Jerry Rice or considering his career a bust. And that's the type of mentality that mixed with great athletic ability actually leads to great players.
Richardson, Clayton etc. all these guys who have come up in the "What if Beckham is just the next <bust> like guy?" all had question marks on their drive for the game.
Here's Beckham's blog, bunch of videos of his offseason work outs. http://www.odellbeckhamjr13.com/blogs/blog/19187055-offseason-training-recap
Reminds me a lot of the video from years ago one Roger Clemens and how he crazy his workout regime was in the post-season.
Beckham won't slack off and he'll never think he's finally "good enough". That's just not the kids mentality. For him, his career will be defined interpersonal as to whether he's the best there ever was or not. As I said, he considers it GOAT or Bust. And if I'm putting my money down on any player, it's a player with that type of mentality towards their own progression and the game. He has to be one of the most competitive guys I've seen come out in quite some time.
Richardson, Clayton etc. all these guys who have come up in the "What if Beckham is just the next <bust> like guy?" all had question marks on their drive for the game.
Here's Beckham's blog, bunch of videos of his offseason work outs. http://www.odellbeckhamjr13.com/blogs/blog/19187055-offseason-training-recap
Reminds me a lot of the video from years ago one Roger Clemens and how he crazy his workout regime was in the post-season.
Beckham won't slack off and he'll never think he's finally "good enough". That's just not the kids mentality. For him, his career will be defined interpersonal as to whether he's the best there ever was or not. As I said, he considers it GOAT or Bust. And if I'm putting my money down on any player, it's a player with that type of mentality towards their own progression and the game. He has to be one of the most competitive guys I've seen come out in quite some time.
Shutout
Footballguy
Exactly. I am terrible at search on this site but I know someone can find that ridiculous Trent Richardson thread where people just couldn't shut up about how, going into his second year, WITH NOrv Turner, based on what he had shown in the rook year, how this guy couldn't conceivably be anything less than top 4-5 dynasty RB but was probably really the #1 (but they'd defer to Peterson....for now).A whole lot of people thought Trent was a clear top-3 dynasty RB, and the debate then was basically "convince me he isn't the outright #1 RB." It is amazing to see how easily people can revise history.we were? The exact same? Partial season? Trent played 15 games with 3 over 100 yards.Shutout said:
Now, we probably did discuss him as a top player given 1317 yards and 12 TDs, but I don't remember having this same conversation. And I owned him for his first couple years after making the worst trade of my FF "career" - something like Dez and a late 1st for the 1.01 (Trent).
It was non-stop "I wouldn't take Calvin AND a first for TRICH right now". Jus the same old stuff.
Shutout
Footballguy
I'm not going to continue with the chapter-length back and forth posts here. I'd say it's safe to say you and others have your biases and me and others have a different one.
However, re: the bolded. NOBODY makes it to the NFL without drive. Even the idiots who get coddled and spoon-fed still have more than the regular Joe. But unless you are in his head, you don't know what he has any more than his words and while he might say he wants to be as good as Jerry Rice or it's bust, it's a known that they ALL say these things.
Fast Willie Parker said he was in the best shape of his life and would win the RB job in Washington after the Steelers cut him lose and he tried to make that team.
Tim Tebow said he would be an awesome NFL QB.
Mark Sanchez, when with the Jets, said he didn't care how much stress or pressure they put on him, that he was the type of guy that was always positive and smiling. I've seen him frown a lot the past few years.
You have to have a certain amount of confidence/ego to play in the NFL but just saying things doesn't make it true.
Khy
Footballguy
Please... nobody makes it to the NFL without drive?
Jamarcus Russell? Josh Gordon? Justin Blackmon?
As for your Tim Tebow comment, I'm not saying drive is the only thing. In fact I said, "And that's the type of mentality that mixed with great athletic ability actually leads to great players". I know alcoholic ex-High School QBs with better throwing mechanics than Tebow. Dude has the throwing motion of a pop warner QB. That is a BIG difference in your assessment. There's a big difference from saying you're the best and being able to back it up.
Tim Tebow said he'd be an awesome NFL QB but couldn't back it up.
Randy Moss said he'd be an awesome WR and did back it up. Same goes for TO, to some extent Ochocinco etc. Beckham backed it up last year. Tebow never showed the promise on the field. Beckham showed nothing but promise. To deny that is just fighting a point to win.
The promise he's shown is a good reason to feel optimism. Not everyone shows that.
The drive he purports to have isn't. I can show you a hundred thousand couch potatoes on food stamps who sincerely believe they'll one day get off their ### and create an empire.
Maybe he's got it, maybe he doesn't. The only things we know he has for certain are a whole boatload of talent on the one hand, and Eli and Coughlin and their history on the other. That equation will balance somehow. We'll see.
