Who is your MUST HAVE player in the back half of redrafts this year? (1 Viewer)

[Pickle Rody]

If Moreno is available in the fifth or later I think he will be a steal. Was the most underrated back in the NFL last year while holding off a very talented rookie. Needs to stay healthy as usual, but Miller will be a cheap handcuff.

I also think Jennings is a good guy to gran in rounds 10+

The 5th, (or later....6th or 7th round) sounds like a top half of the draft pick......just sayin....

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

a few guys that are finding their way onto my rosters in the Surivovr Leagues

Jeremy Maclin

Toby Gerhardt

Justin Hunter

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm thinking Brandin Cooks is a must have this year and I think he will be the most productive rookie. I'm not saying he will be the best WR in this draft long term, but I do think he will be the best rookie WR in 2014 because Brees will make it so.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'm thinking Brandin Cooks is a must have this year and I think he will be the most productive rookie. I'm not saying he will be the best WR in this draft long term, but I do think he will be the best rookie WR in 2014 because Brees will make it so.

The most productive rookie WR is usually the guy who catches the most TDs. My guess would be Mike Evans. The Saints use so many different packages with their WRs I'd be surprised if Cooks gets enough targets to outproduce someone like Evans or Watkins who will be starters from day one.

 

[cloppbeast]

It doesn't surprise me to see so many rookies on this list - because the rookie hype happens every year. But I can't understand why a first year player is preferred to a second or third year player.

 

[BassNBrew]

By back half we're talking 10 rounds drafts eh?

 

[Ted Mullins]

Based on the fantasyfootballcalculator.com ADPs Ahmad Bradshaw, Ladarius Green, Justin Hunter, and Greg Jennings all jumped out at me. Burned me last year but I sorta like Lamar Miller late as well if the "Dolphins offense will be like the Eagles" angle keeps going. QB usually ends up being two of my picks in the second half of the draft as well - I like Romo with Linehan right now.

Been said already, but it is early enough that at least a few of these guys move up substantially by August.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Off the top of my head L. Green and P. Thomas.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

It doesn't surprise me to see so many rookies on this list - because the rookie hype happens every year. But I can't understand why a first year player is preferred to a second or third year player.

Because - while it depends on the league size, scoring rules, lineup formats, etc. - in the "back half of redrafts" I'm generally swinging for the fences. I'd almost always rather grab a guy with a small chance of making a big impact than one with a big chance of making a small impact, considering the latter are generally available, for free, all season on the waiver wire.

And while one can reasonably argue about how efficient the NFL is in many areas ... it is a ruthlessly efficient machine at identifying elite talent. If you have "it", it shows up early. And if you don't, well, that shows up early, too.

Let's take WRs and TEs as an example. Here's a list from PFR of every 1st- and 2nd-year WR and TE in the last two decades who has put up 60+ receptions for 800+ yards and 6+ TDs - not necessarily elite production, but certainly enough to indicate that a player might have "it".

It's not a big list - there are only 50 such seasons in the past 20 years. But here's what you'll notice: Almost every fantasy difference-maker from the last 20 years appears on this list. Among the top 16 names alone you'll find Bruce, Gordon, Jeffery, Moss, Fitz, AJG, Megatron, Gronk, Marshall, and Graham. Further down there's Julio, Andre, Gates, T.O., Witten, Dez, and so on. Compile a list of pass-catchers you've taken in the first two rounds of redrafts over the last decade, and almost every name will be on here somewhere. It's basically the Little Black Book of Future Fantasy Studs.

If, in the 12th round, I have my choice of a third-year WR who has shown flashes but hasn't put up significant numbers, or a highly-touted, highly-drafted rookie in a decent situation, I'm taking the rook probably 8 times out of 10. The rookie has some chance of being a stud right out of the gate, while history tells me that the third-year guy has relatively little ... because, while there are exceptions, if he had the kind of next-level talent that was going to help win games in the NFL, his coaches and teammates almost certainly would have gotten the ball in his hands more in his first two seasons to help them win those games.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Great Post. Great list.

Amazingly I only see 2 names on there listed twice....Marvin Harrison ('96-'97) and Marques Colston ('06-'07). Unless I missed someone, which I could have.

 

[Ted Mullins]

One of the other threads made me think of this - I like Streater as a late guy as well.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Great Post. Great list.

Amazingly I only see 2 names on there listed twice....Marvin Harrison ('96-'97) and Marques Colston ('06-'07). Unless I missed someone, which I could have.

There are actually four: Colston, Harrison, Green ('11-'12) and Moss ('98-'99).

Not all that surprising when you consider that of the 50 seasons in that table, only 12 were put up by rookies. That's why I was a little uncomfortable putting that list up in response to a post where clopp lumped together 2nd- and 3rd-year guys, because they're two very different species in my mind. The heralded "3rd-year WR breakout" isn't actually all that common - elite guys usually make their presence known before that time. But the "2nd-year breakout" is extremely common among future fantasy studs - and for this reason I've been targeting lots of under-the-radar 2nd-year guys in the Survivor League drafts (which are best-ball so really reward that kind of diamond-mining) and will continue to do so in my money leagues. Guys like Dobson, Hopkins, T. Williams, Patton, Rogers, Woods, Eifert, Ertz, etc.

 

[Grahamburn]

It doesn't surprise me to see so many rookies on this list - because the rookie hype happens every year. But I can't understand why a first year player is preferred to a second or third year player.

Because - while it depends on the league size, scoring rules, lineup formats, etc. - in the "back half of redrafts" I'm generally swinging for the fences. I'd almost always rather grab a guy with a small chance of making a big impact than one with a big chance of making a small impact, considering the latter are generally available, for free, all season on the waiver wire.

And while one can reasonably argue about how efficient the NFL is in many areas ... it is a ruthlessly efficient machine at identifying elite talent. If you have "it", it shows up early. And if you don't, well, that shows up early, too.

Let's take WRs and TEs as an example. Here's a list from PFR of every 1st- and 2nd-year WR and TE in the last two decades who has put up 60+ receptions for 800+ yards and 6+ TDs - not necessarily elite production, but certainly enough to indicate that a player might have "it".

It's not a big list - there are only 50 such seasons in the past 20 years. But here's what you'll notice: Almost every fantasy difference-maker from the last 20 years appears on this list. Among the top 16 names alone you'll find Bruce, Gordon, Jeffery, Moss, Fitz, AJG, Megatron, Gronk, Marshall, and Graham. Further down there's Julio, Andre, Gates, T.O., Witten, Dez, and so on. Compile a list of pass-catchers you've taken in the first two rounds of redrafts over the last decade, and almost every name will be on here somewhere. It's basically the Little Black Book of Future Fantasy Studs.

If, in the 12th round, I have my choice of a third-year WR who has shown flashes but hasn't put up significant numbers, or a highly-touted, highly-drafted rookie in a decent situation, I'm taking the rook probably 8 times out of 10. The rookie has some chance of being a stud right out of the gate, while history tells me that the third-year guy has relatively little ... because, while there are exceptions, if he had the kind of next-level talent that was going to help win games in the NFL, his coaches and teammates almost certainly would have gotten the ball in his hands more in his first two seasons to help them win those games.

I'm confused. None of the players you listed made a major fantasy impact in their rookie seasons. Most of them had their breakouts in the 2nd or 3rd season. Why would that make you more inclined to take the rookie?

Edit: I see you mentioned taking second year players in your next post.

 

[cloppbeast]

There are actually four: Colston, Harrison, Green ('11-'12) and Moss ('98-'99).
Not all that surprising when you consider that of the 50 seasons in that table, only 12 were put up by rookies. That's why I was a little uncomfortable putting that list up in response to a post where clopp lumped together 2nd- and 3rd-year guys, because they're two very different species in my mind. The heralded "3rd-year WR breakout" isn't actually all that common - elite guys usually make their presence known before that time. But the "2nd-year breakout" is extremely common among future fantasy studs - and for this reason I've been targeting lots of under-the-radar 2nd-year guys in the Survivor League drafts (which are best-ball so really reward that kind of diamond-mining) and will continue to do so in my money leagues. Guys like Dobson, Hopkins, T. Williams, Patton, Rogers, Woods, Eifert, Ertz, etc.

The bolded was absolutely my point. Assuming a player will produce in his career, it's more likely he makes a breakout in his second year than in his first - especially at WR and TE. So when fishing for upstart players, I tend to target second (and third) year players in the back half of drafts.

The third year breakout may not happen often. But I like those guys because of their reduced sticker price - it's like shopping at Marshalls. You can get them in the last few rounds.

What do you have to spend to get AJ Jenkins or Brian Quick? Honestly, at their price, I like these two guys in re-draft - much more than a 5th round rookie.

 

[mr roboto]

Here was my 'back half' of the draft last year

9 Gordon

10 J Bell

11 Michael Floyd

12 Roethlisberger

13 Hartline

14 Bullock

15 Panthers D

Obviously Gordon was a sick value, and Bell filled in really nicely for MJDs disappointing season at RB2. Hartline and Big Ben were meh, Floyd was decent but barely saw my lineup.

I really love the second half of the draft because you can grab those guys who after wk1-3 everyone rushes to see if he's available.

 

[Ted Mullins]

There are actually four: Colston, Harrison, Green ('11-'12) and Moss ('98-'99).
Not all that surprising when you consider that of the 50 seasons in that table, only 12 were put up by rookies. That's why I was a little uncomfortable putting that list up in response to a post where clopp lumped together 2nd- and 3rd-year guys, because they're two very different species in my mind. The heralded "3rd-year WR breakout" isn't actually all that common - elite guys usually make their presence known before that time. But the "2nd-year breakout" is extremely common among future fantasy studs - and for this reason I've been targeting lots of under-the-radar 2nd-year guys in the Survivor League drafts (which are best-ball so really reward that kind of diamond-mining) and will continue to do so in my money leagues. Guys like Dobson, Hopkins, T. Williams, Patton, Rogers, Woods, Eifert, Ertz, etc.

The bolded was absolutely my point. Assuming a player will produce in his career, it's more likely he makes a breakout in his second year than in his first - especially at WR and TE. So when fishing for upstart players, I tend to target second (and third) year players in the back half of drafts.

The third year breakout may not happen often. But I like those guys because of their reduced sticker price - it's like shopping at Marshalls. You can get them in the last few rounds.

What do you have to spend to get AJ Jenkins or Brian Quick? Honestly, at their price, I like these two guys in re-draft - much more than a 5th round rookie.

Great point about the discounted guys. There is so much fantasy information out there for free now, it seems like the out of nowhere guys don't stay under the radar as easily - I think there is plenty of value to be had by taking guys that have been discarded or carry a strong negative stigma. Ryan Mathews and Moreno jump out at me as guys like this last year.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

Homerism, I admit, but I'm looking at Bradford in the next-to-last round. His numbers were skewed because they tried being New Orleans the first four weeks of the season, but he was near the top of the league in TDs when he went down. The more relevant point is he led the league in red zone efficiency. So Stacy and Mason may chew up the first 70 yards, but Bradford will be able to put it in the paint.

Greg Jennings is also one I am liking late. I think he's just the WR2 Bridgewater needs. I am cautiously bullish on Minnesota this year.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Greg Jennings is also one I am liking late. I think he's just the WR2 Bridgewater needs. I am cautiously bullish on Minnesota this year.

Patterson's physical skillset seems tremendous but I wonder if Jennings actually becomes more of the WR1 there due to being so much more polished. By no means a sure thing but on fantasyfootballcalculator it looks like Patterson is 52nd and Jennings is 163rd - makes Jennings very attractive IMO.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

There are actually four: Colston, Harrison, Green ('11-'12) and Moss ('98-'99).
Not all that surprising when you consider that of the 50 seasons in that table, only 12 were put up by rookies. That's why I was a little uncomfortable putting that list up in response to a post where clopp lumped together 2nd- and 3rd-year guys, because they're two very different species in my mind. The heralded "3rd-year WR breakout" isn't actually all that common - elite guys usually make their presence known before that time. But the "2nd-year breakout" is extremely common among future fantasy studs - and for this reason I've been targeting lots of under-the-radar 2nd-year guys in the Survivor League drafts (which are best-ball so really reward that kind of diamond-mining) and will continue to do so in my money leagues. Guys like Dobson, Hopkins, T. Williams, Patton, Rogers, Woods, Eifert, Ertz, etc.

The bolded was absolutely my point. Assuming a player will produce in his career, it's more likely he makes a breakout in his second year than in his first - especially at WR and TE. So when fishing for upstart players, I tend to target second (and third) year players in the back half of drafts.

The third year breakout may not happen often. But I like those guys because of their reduced sticker price - it's like shopping at Marshalls. You can get them in the last few rounds.

What do you have to spend to get AJ Jenkins or Brian Quick? Honestly, at their price, I like these two guys in re-draft - much more than a 5th round rookie.

Not that I disagree with you, but that's easy to say now. It's May. And a large percentage of 5th-round rookies don't even make it onto the 53-man roster - versus guys like Jenkins or Quick, whom we know have at least the baseline level of skill required to stick around an NFL roster for 2+ seasons.

But if the 5th-rounder shows some flashes in camp, makes the final cut, and seems to be carving out a specific role in his team's offense, and nothing dramatic happens to change my current expectations of Jenkins or Quick? I don't think it's strange at all to prefer the rook in that situation when you're sitting there in the last or second-to-last round on the clock.

 

[DAG]

I'm thinking Brandin Cooks is a must have this year and I think he will be the most productive rookie. I'm not saying he will be the best WR in this draft long term, but I do think he will be the best rookie WR in 2014 because Brees will make it so.

The most productive rookie WR is usually the guy who catches the most TDs. My guess would be Mike Evans. The Saints use so many different packages with their WRs I'd be surprised if Cooks gets enough targets to outproduce someone like Evans or Watkins who will be starters from day one.

This is actually an interesting call (between Evans and Cooks) as from what I tell Evans is going about a round earlier than Cooks in mocks. I really like the gamble a round later on Cooks on the chance that NO really does get him involved with a high volume of catches (assuming ppr). I'm concerned that he's all-or-nothing considering how NO spreads the ball around but from rd. 8 on either one of these guys could represent nice value.

 

[Biabreakable]

Greg Jennings is also one I am liking late. I think he's just the WR2 Bridgewater needs. I am cautiously bullish on Minnesota this year.

Patterson's physical skillset seems tremendous but I wonder if Jennings actually becomes more of the WR1 there due to being so much more polished. By no means a sure thing but on fantasyfootballcalculator it looks like Patterson is 52nd and Jennings is 163rd - makes Jennings very attractive IMO.

I agree.

Nice article about Norv/Jennings/Patterson - https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1859/greg-jennings-the-minnesota-vikings-wide-receiver-to-own

 

[ldizzle]

Greg Jennings is also one I am liking late. I think he's just the WR2 Bridgewater needs. I am cautiously bullish on Minnesota this year.

Patterson's physical skillset seems tremendous but I wonder if Jennings actually becomes more of the WR1 there due to being so much more polished. By no means a sure thing but on fantasyfootballcalculator it looks like Patterson is 52nd and Jennings is 163rd - makes Jennings very attractive IMO.

interesting take. I do think jennings is a great value this year. I cant wait for mandatory camps to start to see if patterson has developedI agree.

Nice article about Norv/Jennings/Patterson - https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1859/greg-jennings-the-minnesota-vikings-wide-receiver-to-own

 

[cloppbeast]

But if the 5th-rounder shows some flashes in camp, makes the final cut, and seems to be carving out a specific role in his team's offense, and nothing dramatic happens to change my current expectations of Jenkins or Quick? I don't think it's strange at all to prefer the rook in that situation when you're sitting there in the last or second-to-last round on the clock.

I'd bet the fifth round rookie who flashed in camp/pre-season will still go before Quick and Jenkins this year. Kenbrell Thompkins went on average in 10th round last year. Then again, not all late round rookies play for the Patriots.