Who;s value could skyrocket in the 2007 pre-season (1 Viewer)

[toppshelff]

I've changed the topic a bit as I realize that I didn't ask right the first time. Some of us want to target a few guys (trades or FA pickups) that might skyrocket during the pre-season. They might even become keepers if you declare just before season starts.

I'm thinking about guys like Betts or RMoss, who could switch teams. I'm thinking Greg Jones who could conceivably start for Jax. Morency in GB or Norwood in Atl could see the same thing.

None of these are likely, but all are possible, and all could turn into genuine top players at their positions.

What other RBs could be surprise starters by the end of pre-season? What other WRs might see their value skyrocket? Anybody else with that potential?

Thanks for your insights...

 

[delusional]

Matt Jones...entering his 3rd year...if you believe in the year 3 breakout for WRs

 

[zamboni]

if you believe in the year 3 breakout for WRs

myth

 

[nygiants56]

if you believe in the year 3 breakout for WRs

myth

not really. Steve Smith in his 3rd year caught 88 balls for 1110 yards and 7 tds. two previous seasons, he had 64 catches, TOTAL.Chad Johnson caught 90 balls for 1355 yards and 10 tds in his third season. a jump of 21 catches, and 5 TDs over his second season.Marvin Harrison didn't 'arrive' until his 4th season, when he caught 115 balls for 1663 yards and 12 tds..just a few WR's to prove the myth is somewhat true.Matt Jones is a 1st-class BUST, however, so I wouldn't cnsider him to a be a third year breakout player anyhow. If you can't stay healthy, you can't play. He is as fragile a player as there ever was in the NFL.

 

[-OZ-]

My short list

Jason Campbell - first full year starting, looking pretty decent so far in a couple games

TJ Duckett - will he get a chance to start? A bust at this point

Matt Jones - not a bust right now, although injuries are a concern

Braylon Edwards - I highly doubt he busts, but how big a boom is the question

Brandon Jacobs - 'nuff said around here already

Chriss Simms / Gradkowski - who will be the man?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

if you believe in the year 3 breakout for WRs

myth

not really. Steve Smith in his 3rd year caught 88 balls for 1110 yards and 7 tds. two previous seasons, he had 64 catches, TOTAL.Chad Johnson caught 90 balls for 1355 yards and 10 tds in his third season. a jump of 21 catches, and 5 TDs over his second season.Marvin Harrison didn't 'arrive' until his 4th season, when he caught 115 balls for 1663 yards and 12 tds..just a few WR's to prove the myth is somewhat true.Matt Jones is a 1st-class BUST, however, so I wouldn't cnsider him to a be a third year breakout player anyhow. If you can't stay healthy, you can't play. He is as fragile a player as there ever was in the NFL.

3 examples prove nothing. It's called "anecdotal evidence".However, someone did an analysis to prove the 3rd year WR breakout theory. I'm too lazy to search for it, but the study showed WRs breakout during either their 2nd or 3rd year (on average), in roughly equal proportions. In other words, WRs are most likley to breakout in either year 2 or 3.

 

[-OZ-]

if you believe in the year 3 breakout for WRs

myth

not really. Steve Smith in his 3rd year caught 88 balls for 1110 yards and 7 tds. two previous seasons, he had 64 catches, TOTAL.Chad Johnson caught 90 balls for 1355 yards and 10 tds in his third season. a jump of 21 catches, and 5 TDs over his second season.Marvin Harrison didn't 'arrive' until his 4th season, when he caught 115 balls for 1663 yards and 12 tds..just a few WR's to prove the myth is somewhat true.Matt Jones is a 1st-class BUST, however, so I wouldn't cnsider him to a be a third year breakout player anyhow. If you can't stay healthy, you can't play. He is as fragile a player as there ever was in the NFL.

3 examples prove nothing. It's called "anecdotal evidence".However, someone did an analysis to prove the 3rd year WR breakout theory. I'm too lazy to search for it, but the study showed WRs breakout during either their 2nd or 3rd year (on average), in roughly equal proportions. In other words, WRs are most likley to breakout in either year 2 or 3.

Sure, now how many of those WRs didn't play WR in college?Hines Ward didn't really break out until year 4. Years 2 and 3 were decent. Drew Bennett's "break out" was also year 4. ARE's best year was year 4. (tongue in cheek here)Seems like we'll wait until 2008 for Jones.

 

[MLBrandow]

MAURICE DREW

 

[PatsWillWin]

Randy Moss

He could either return to be SOMEWHAT of a shadow of his former self assuming he gets moved to a new team. I don't see how Oakland could keep him.

Either that, or yeah, he remains a bust.

 

[MLBrandow]

Randy MossHe could either return to be SOMEWHAT of a shadow of his former self assuming he gets moved to a new team. I don't see how Oakland could keep him.Either that, or yeah, he remains a bust.

Moss will be very good next year, but I don't think he'll outperform his predraft hype in redrafts, making him an average investment.

 

[Blackjacks]

I look forward to a guy like Cadillac next year. I didn't like him at all this year but I think next year he'll have good value.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Benson. He's either a starting RB and gets 1300+ yds, 8+ TDs or he's not worth owning. Pretty big difference.

 

[Sabertooth]

Vernand Morency has a high ceiling. He's looked good and with Green on a one-year contract, he could inherit the starting job for a team that will be in the second year of the vaunted Denver zone-blocking scheme.

 

[MLBrandow]

I look forward to a guy like Cadillac next year. I didn't like him at all this year but I think next year he'll have good value.

Have to agree here. His poor luck has burned a lot of fantasy owners from targeting him next year. Especially with the intermittent 100-yd performances, enticing owners to keep him in that RB2 spot one more week.He's liable to go in the second round next year, and I still think that when his OL is healthy and his QB isn't on IR that he's easily a top-10 back.

 

[Usual21]

MAURICE DREW

 

[Sabertooth]

I look forward to a guy like Cadillac next year. I didn't like him at all this year but I think next year he'll have good value.

Have to agree here. His poor luck has burned a lot of fantasy owners from targeting him next year. Especially with the intermittent 100-yd performances, enticing owners to keep him in that RB2 spot one more week.He's liable to go in the second round next year, and I still think that when his OL is healthy and his QB isn't on IR that he's easily a top-10 back.

[notetoself] Avoid Cadillac Williams like the plague next year as MLBrandow is pimping him as a "easily a top-10 back".[/notetoself]

 

[zamboni]

I look forward to a guy like Cadillac next year. I didn't like him at all this year but I think next year he'll have good value.

I think he'll bounce back nicely next year as well, although there's a few big wildcards: shoring up the QB situation and no short-yardage guy to replace Alstott (assuming he retires, which I think is likely).

 

[-OZ-]

Matt Jones is a 1st-class BUST, however, so I wouldn't cnsider him to a be a third year breakout player anyhow. If you can't stay healthy, you can't play. He is as fragile a player as there ever was in the NFL.

 

[MLBrandow]

MAURICE DREW

 

[dallas ram]

Michael Turner

 

[DenverBuc]

Joseph Addai

Terrell Owens

I see Addai as boom or bust since it will be his second year and he should get 100% of the load.

T.O. Seems to be OK now, but I wonder about next year - kind of like the year after his OK year in Philly.

 

[TinHat]

Vince Young

Big Ben

Losman

Brandon Jacobs

Maroney

LenDale White (IF he gets himself in shape)

Marion Barber

Lee Evans

BMW

 

[baronson]

blowin' up:

surprised no one mentioned Leinert. OL will improve in the off-season and he'll benefit the most.

Barber III definitely. he is starting to explode and it can only continue into next year. parcells loves him and its easy to see why.

alex smith takes the next step next year. just a eerie feeling i have.

blown out:

chambers is done. he's a big body with below-average hands. even marty booker is outperforming him, and where has that guy been the past 4 years?

the ahman green comeback parade ends early next year. i think he shows his age early on and morency starts assuming a larger role.

eli. i'm a giants fan and i hate him.

 

[KarmaPolice]

NORWOOD

 

[SproutDaddy]

I look forward to a guy like Cadillac next year. I didn't like him at all this year but I think next year he'll have good value.

I think he'll bounce back nicely next year as well, although there's a few big wildcards: shoring up the QB situation and no short-yardage guy to replace Alstott (assuming he retires, which I think is likely).

2007 Caddy = 2006 KJ

 

[RamMan]

NORWOOD

I love Norwood going forward but I think it happens in '08 - not next year. Chances are Dunn gets one more year in the featured role. I'm going to say Jay Cutler, who will have his growing pains the reaminder of this season and come in next year ready to rock 'n roll in Shanny's offense.

 

[zamboni]

chambers is done. he's a big body with below-average hands. even marty booker is outperforming him, and where has that guy been the past 4 years?

I'm taking a different tact and say he's going to be a great buy-low candidate. I haven't seen enough games this year to see why Harrington is locking into Booker, but I'm willing to throw away this year for Chambers - he's got too much talent.If Culpepper returns as the starter next year, I could see him and Chambers becoming a nice duo.

 

[ready5]

3 examples prove nothing. It's called "anecdotal evidence".

um... anecdotal evidence is still evidence. since the whole 3rd-year WR theory is a plausibility argument (or an "argument to the best explanation"), you either need to provide a more plausible theory to fit the evidence (the generality problem) or provide an explanation for why you think these three examples should be exceptions (the particularity problem).while i think there's a lot more to a WR breaking out than just how many years they've been in the NFL, i'm not sure you conveniently dismissing evidence of any stripe is very productive. leastways, i'm a bit more swayed by an article such as this one... yes its a bit old, but at least it uses logic/stats to investigate the theory.

ETA: ok, i see you're not disagreeing with the theory per se... maybe i missed your edit.

 

[baronson]

chambers is done. he's a big body with below-average hands. even marty booker is outperforming him, and where has that guy been the past 4 years?

I'm taking a different tact and say he's going to be a great buy-low candidate. I haven't seen enough games this year to see why Harrington is locking into Booker, but I'm willing to throw away this year for Chambers - he's got too much talent.If Culpepper returns as the starter next year, I could see him and Chambers becoming a nice duo.

what makes you think chambers has "too much talent?" he's consistently had one of the worst (if not THE worst) catch conversion ratios of any WR1 in the league, year after year. some of that is due to his inconsistent QB play, but when guys like welker and booker are converting... one wonders if it really IS chambers.i'm thinking his route running is probably junk, and i know his hands need work. i'd steer far away from him.

 

[videoguy505]

Andre Johnson has redeemed himself from his horrible year last year, and I believe he's a free agent after this season? Could move to a team with an offense.

 

[my man otis]

Michael Turner

why do people think this? the guy is an RFA next year, meaning it's gonna cost a lot to get this guy (draft picks).turner = tomlinson's backup in 2007.

 

[baronson]

Michael Turner

why do people think this? the guy is an RFA next year, meaning it's gonna cost a lot to get this guy (draft picks).turner = tomlinson's backup in 2007.

agree. turner's registering high on the Wali Lundy hype-o-meter.

 

[Blackjacks]

I look forward to a guy like Cadillac next year. I didn't like him at all this year but I think next year he'll have good value.

Have to agree here. His poor luck has burned a lot of fantasy owners from targeting him next year. Especially with the intermittent 100-yd performances, enticing owners to keep him in that RB2 spot one more week.He's liable to go in the second round next year, and I still think that when his OL is healthy and his QB isn't on IR that he's easily a top-10 back.

I'm stunned your supporting Cadillac . Expectionally after you probably had him in every league you were in this year. I told you to stay away from him this year didn't I? I do think next year he'll re-emerge into a reliable rb based on Alstott's status (I think he'll retire), Qb and O-line.

 

[Bossman]

Michael Turner

why do people think this? the guy is an RFA next year, meaning it's gonna cost a lot to get this guy (draft picks).turner = tomlinson's backup in 2007.

so you're saying the Chargers will pay huge $ to keep Turner as a back-up?(assuming as an RFA they will have to match another teams offer)

 

[zamboni]

Michael Turner

why do people think this? the guy is an RFA next year, meaning it's gonna cost a lot to get this guy (draft picks).turner = tomlinson's backup in 2007.

so you're saying the Chargers will pay huge $ to keep Turner as a back-up?(assuming as an RFA they will have to match another teams offer)

I'm sure the Chargers will be more than happy to pay the required top RFA tender - cheap insurance for the best RB in the game. As for "huge $", that's only if another team makes an offer for him. Which is the point most are saying, that teams probably won't want to make that offer knowing it will entail a huge contract in addition to a 1st and 3rd round pick.

 

[baronson]

Michael Turner

why do people think this? the guy is an RFA next year, meaning it's gonna cost a lot to get this guy (draft picks).turner = tomlinson's backup in 2007.

so you're saying the Chargers will pay huge $ to keep Turner as a back-up?(assuming as an RFA they will have to match another teams offer)

I'm sure the Chargers will be more than happy to pay the required top RFA tender - cheap insurance for the best RB in the game. As for "huge $", that's only if another team makes an offer for him. Which is the point most are saying, that teams probably won't want to make that offer knowing it will entail a huge contract in addition to a 1st and 3rd round pick.

exactly. which is why turner should really be considered at the bottom of the list above.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

chambers is done. he's a big body with below-average hands. even marty booker is outperforming him, and where has that guy been the past 4 years?

I'm taking a different tact and say he's going to be a great buy-low candidate. I haven't seen enough games this year to see why Harrington is locking into Booker, but I'm willing to throw away this year for Chambers - he's got too much talent.If Culpepper returns as the starter next year, I could see him and Chambers becoming a nice duo.

what makes you think chambers has "too much talent?" he's consistently had one of the worst (if not THE worst) catch conversion ratios of any WR1 in the league, year after year. some of that is due to his inconsistent QB play, but when guys like welker and booker are converting... one wonders if it really IS chambers.i'm thinking his route running is probably junk, and i know his hands need work. i'd steer far away from him.

I hate when people obviously havent seen a player in action, then make statements about their abilities. Watch a few Miami games and Chambers will catch everything even close to him. Probablem is that 75% of his target are totally uncatchable yet count for "stats".

 

[MLBrandow]

I'm stunned your supporting Cadillac . Expectionally after you probably had him in every league you were in this year. I told you to stay away from him this year didn't I? I do think next year he'll re-emerge into a reliable rb based on Alstott's status (I think he'll retire), Qb and O-line.

I didn't draft him in any leagues, but I did trade for him in one around midseason.I knew Gradkowski would be bad, but I thought the line would solidify a little better than it has (it is looking pretty good), and thought Gradkowski wouldn't be as horrible as he is.I honestly can't fathom how people feel like he has a future in this league. He's not like Alex Smith bad or Eli Manning bad... he's Kyle Orton bad. It's not that he's making these mistakes because he's learning the curve to the pro level.... he's just a terrible QB that isn't going to make it in the NFL. He'll be a borderline backup around the league.And that's destroying what Cadillac can do this year.With Simms back next year, I feel like he'll be in position to be as good as I thought he would be this year.As per your Alstott comment, I'm sure he'll retire. He was going to two seasons ago, but now is just hanging around to pick up extra cash, and thought the Bucs defense would give him one more shot to win it all.One thing that does worry me about next year is that if this defense is really bad (likely to have five new starters next year), it may spell disaster for his chances at putting up a quality season. We shall see though.... I still have a lot of faith in watching him, and he still has that explosion and vision you look for in a guy who will become a great running back in the league. However, he can't move the earth by himself, nor can the line open up holes for him with any consistency when he's facing 9-man fronts. Add that with the defense limiting his opportunities to get the ball, and I'm worried next year the Bucs may be in worse shape next year than they are this year.

 

[my man otis]

Michael Turner

why do people think this? the guy is an RFA next year, meaning it's gonna cost a lot to get this guy (draft picks).turner = tomlinson's backup in 2007.

so you're saying the Chargers will pay huge $ to keep Turner as a back-up?(assuming as an RFA they will have to match another teams offer)

I'm sure the Chargers will be more than happy to pay the required top RFA tender - cheap insurance for the best RB in the game. As for "huge $", that's only if another team makes an offer for him. Which is the point most are saying, that teams probably won't want to make that offer knowing it will entail a huge contract in addition to a 1st and 3rd round pick.

exactly. which is why turner should really be considered at the bottom of the list above.

correct. there are "easier" RBs to acquire next year (so to speak), including the draft.I would not totally dismiss turner as starting somewhere but I think the probability is lower than the rest on the list.I know this is probably covered elsewhere, but below is my list of RBBC/backup RBs in order of potential to be a full time RB next year (75%+ touches). This is not a list of how good they would be if they got a full time job, just how I see it panning out next year. Top 2 are virtual certainties IMO.JacobsDWilliamsAddaiMaroneyDrewWhiteNorwoodBensonBushBettsTurner

 

[Buckna]

Andre Johnson has redeemed himself from his horrible year last year, and I believe he's a free agent after this season? Could move to a team with an offense.

Signed thru '08.

 

[rockbottom895]

If Michael Turner leaves San Diego, he'll be a starting RB on whichever team he lands. He is amazing.

 

[Todem]

chambers is done. he's a big body with below-average hands. even marty booker is outperforming him, and where has that guy been the past 4 years?

I'm taking a different tact and say he's going to be a great buy-low candidate. I haven't seen enough games this year to see why Harrington is locking into Booker, but I'm willing to throw away this year for Chambers - he's got too much talent.If Culpepper returns as the starter next year, I could see him and Chambers becoming a nice duo.

what makes you think chambers has "too much talent?" he's consistently had one of the worst (if not THE worst) catch conversion ratios of any WR1 in the league, year after year. some of that is due to his inconsistent QB play, but when guys like welker and booker are converting... one wonders if it really IS chambers.i'm thinking his route running is probably junk, and i know his hands need work. i'd steer far away from him.

I hate when people obviously havent seen a player in action, then make statements about their abilities. Watch a few Miami games and Chambers will catch everything even close to him. Probablem is that 75% of his target are totally uncatchable yet count for "stats".

Culpepper will be a superb value next year when he returns 100% for real. The man was obviously back way too early.

 

[toppshelff]

No love for Greg Jones. He was the heir apparent to Fragile Fred. MJD has obviously won many fans. However, I think Taylor is gone in off-season, and Greg and MJD battle it out to see who will be the everydown back.

BTW, Greg is a FA in many keeper leagues

 

[Banger]

if you believe in the year 3 breakout for WRs

myth

Matt Jones is a 1st-class BUST, however, so I wouldn't cnsider him to a be a third year breakout player anyhow. If you can't stay healthy, you can't play. He is as fragile a player as there ever was in the NFL.

So a guy misses a 1/2 dozen games with a hamstring injury and he's done for his career? Sound logic.

 

[Banger]

No love for Greg Jones. He was the heir apparent to Fragile Fred. MJD has obviously won many fans. However, I think Taylor is gone in off-season, and Greg and MJD battle it out to see who will be the everydown back.BTW, Greg is a FA in many keeper leagues

Drew is the future there. Drew >> G. Jones IMO.

 

[Banger]

Michael Turner

why do people think this? the guy is an RFA next year, meaning it's gonna cost a lot to get this guy (draft picks).turner = tomlinson's backup in 2007.

the question is who could skyrocket in the offseason. IF a team trades for him his value would certainly skyrocket. Whether that happens is largely dependent on the tender given (compensation required).

 

[Banger]

Michael Turner

why do people think this? the guy is an RFA next year, meaning it's gonna cost a lot to get this guy (draft picks).turner = tomlinson's backup in 2007.

agree. turner's registering high on the Wali Lundy hype-o-meter.

Turner >>>>>>>>Lundy

 

[zamboni]

No love for Greg Jones. He was the heir apparent to Fragile Fred. MJD has obviously won many fans. However, I think Taylor is gone in off-season, and Greg and MJD battle it out to see who will be the everydown back.BTW, Greg is a FA in many keeper leagues

He's a guy I'm considering. The big issue is him coming off an ACL, although we've starting to see more and more guys return quicker than in the past - and his was in preseason. The other, and probably more glaring issue as you mentioned, is MJD's emergence. He may have inherited that heir apparent role himself with his play this year.

 

[Banger]

I'd throw Chris Brown on the list. He's a UFA and he's been good the couple games he hasn't been hurt.

I also like Cotchery. Has had a good year and looks like he has more upside.

 

[Wu-banger]

I look forward to a guy like Cadillac next year. I didn't like him at all this year but I think next year he'll have good value.

I see Caddy in '07 similar to Kev Jones this year.... could be a nice 2nd/3rd round value.