Who will be the worst 8 offenses in 2021? (1 Viewer)

[ratbast]

Do you think bottom 8 is too many?

I am going to start going through each season and looking at top fantasy performers from bottom 8 offenses for how often that happens.

Bottom 8 was David Dodds idea so thats where this comes from. Bottom 8 is 25% of the teams.

I’m mostly thinking the bottom tier. Maybe that’s 3 maybe it’s 10. I know why you referenced 8. But shouldn’t the thought process be, which teams will stink this year. Instead of researching bottom 8 performances, researching the tier break and the turnover of the bottom tier would be really my point. The turnover would suggest the actual predictability. And you could even research perhaps why some team went from top 10 to bottom 5. Etc

 

[Biabreakable]

I’m mostly thinking the bottom tier. Maybe that’s 3 maybe it’s 10. I know why you referenced 8. But shouldn’t the thought process be, which teams will stink this year. Instead of researching bottom 8 performances, researching the tier break and the turnover of the bottom tier would be really my point. The turnover would suggest the actual predictability. And you could even research perhaps why some team went from top 10 to bottom 5. Etc

These are all excellent suggestions and when I do go though this I will look at these things as well since I will already be there.

Thank you.

 

[Biabreakable]

So I am working backwards from 2020 and I finished the last 3 seasons so far. 

2020

NY Jets 243 points 4479 yards best player for fantasy was Jamison Crowder who finished as WR 39
NY Giants 280 points 4794 yards best player Evan Engram TE 14
Jacksonville Jaguars 306 points 5218 yards best player James Robinson RB 7
Cincinatti Benglas 311 points 5116 yards Best player Joe Burrow QB 25 in 10 games
Denver Broncos 323 points only bottom 8 team in points to not be bottom 8 in yards. Bears and Steelers had fewer yards. Best players Noah Fant TE 11 Melvin Gordon RB 13
NE Patriots 326 points 5236 yards best player Cam Newton QB 18
Philadelphia Eagles 334 points 5354 yards best player Dallas Goedert TE 20 or Myles Sanders RB 23
Washington Football Team 335 points 5076 yards best player Antonio Gibson RB 14 Terry McLaurin WR 19

4 out the 8 teams did not produce a top 24 WR or RB or a top 12 QB or TE

2019

Washington 266 poubts 4395 yards Terry McLaurin WR 29
NY Jets 276 4368 yards Jamison Crowder WR 26
Cincinatti Bengals 279 points 5169 yards Best player Joe Mixon RB 13
Chicago Bears 280 points 4749 yards Best player Allen Robinson WR 8
Denver Broncos 282 points 4777 yards Sutton WR 19
Pittsburgh Steelers 289 points 4428 yards James Conner RB 34
Jacksonville Jaguars 300 points 5468 yards Leonard Fournette RB 7 DJ Chark WR 18
Miami Dolphins 306 points 4960 yards DeVante Parker WR 11

3 out of 8 teams did not produce a top 24 WR or RB or a top 12 QB or TE but Criowder and McLaurin were close enough that I think this is more 1 out of 8

2018

Arizona Cardinals 225 points 3765 yards David Johnson RB 9 
Jacksonville Jaguars 245 points 4832 yards TJ Yeldon RB 22
Buffalo Bills 269 points 4778 tards
Washington 281 points 4795 yards Adrian Peterson RB 19
Raiders 290 points 5379 yards Amari Cooper WR 18
Titans 310 points 5002 yards Derek Henry RB 16
Dolphins 319 points 4638 yards
Detroit Lions 324 points 5236 yards Kenny Golloday WR 22

2 out of 8 teams did not produce a top 24 WR or RB or a top 12 QB or TE

I was going to do 10 seasons of this but it seems like kind of a fools errand to me right now considering over 50% of these bottom 8 seasons are producing very fantasy relevant players.

When we look at the teams that did not produce a fantasy relevant player from these 3 seasons, there were significant injuries or Adam Gase involved.

 

[Biabreakable]

Another factor I do see here is that rookie QB is generally not good for producing a top tier offense or for that teams players being highly productive for fantasy, with some exceptions of course.

The Jets have the 3rd most votes for being a bottom 8 offense according to the poll and they will be starting a rookie QB. That to me screams AVOID.

The Texans have the most votes here and I think avoiding their players makes sense as well.

The Lions have the 2nd most votes in the poll and I don't think they will be that good either, but I won't let that cause me to avoid drafting Swift.

I am mostly avoiding NE players because I don't like them and I think Harris might be taken before I would. 

Part of what got me started on this topic was considering if I should avoid ETN because the Jaguars have been bad and rookie QB and rookie head coach. But the Jaguars have some good offensive line players and they have produced good RB for fantasy despite being a poor overall offense, so I am not avoiding ETN because of this.

 

[ryno1980]

I like to contrast lists like these with the high ADP of some of the main players on these offenses.  The one that stands out is Hurts as the #10 QB.  Can a top 10 QB also be on a bottom 8 offense?

2006 Falcons with Vick as a top 5 fantasy QB