Who will be this year’s 2022 Broncos? (1 Viewer)

[GibbsFreeEnergy]

Not necessarily a team adding a HOF qb(Jets), but an offense that looks good on paper that will sh*t the bed.

I’m thinking the Chiefs- while they won’t be as dismal as last years Broncos, they are only one key player injury away from disaster on offense.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Chiefs got Batman (15) I’d look elsewhere

Hopefully Robin (87) is back soon

 

[Stat Correction]

It will be the 2023 Broncos....

 

[GibbsFreeEnergy]

It will be the 2023 Broncos....

Probably. And I didn’t even see the Kelce news until just now

 

[pollardsvision]

Ravens.

You all think I'm nuts. Just like you would have if somebody said that 12 months ago about Broncos.

Remember that. HOF QB that just needed to be unleashed. Not confined to a run-first system. Let Russ cook.
Nevermind that the run-first scheme led them to at least 10-12 wins every year. Let's just bring in an OC that just wants to fling it! How hard can that be!

Monken might be exciting for fantasy prospects, but his NFL prospects have just led to inefficient offenses on losing teams. He was great in college when he had superior talent.

I'm old enough to remember when Spurrier and Chip Kelly were going to revolutionize the stodgy old NFL.

 

[SDJohnny]

It will be the 2023 Broncos....

Came here to post this.

 

[eighsse2]

Seahawks.

 

[pollardsvision]

It will be the 2023 Broncos....

Came here to post this.

I might be missing the point.
This is about offenses that people think will be good, right?

2022 Broncos were that. Sky was the limit. Folks thought they were right in line with all the high-flying offenses.

Does anybody really think the 2023 Broncos offense will be good?

(I kind of do, and I'm sure others do, but a year ago, people thought they would be absolutely elite. The optimistic view in 2023 is that they may not suck.)

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Ravens.

You all think I'm nuts. Just like you would have if somebody said that 12 months ago about Broncos.

Remember that. HOF QB that just needed to be unleashed. Not confined to a run-first system. Let Russ cook.
Nevermind that the run-first scheme led them to at least 10-12 wins every year. Let's just bring in an OC that just wants to fling it! How hard can that be!

Monken might be exciting for fantasy prospects, but his NFL prospects have just led to inefficient offenses on losing teams. He was great in college when he had superior talent.

I'm old enough to remember when Spurrier and Chip Kelly were going to revolutionize the stodgy old NFL.

This is probably the right answer, but just to throw out a couple of other possibilities:

Falcons -- everyone loves their skill position guys and assumes they'll perform even if Ritter sucks. But what if he really sucks?

49ers -- similar, plus Shanahan is a genius who can turn any QB into a star. But what if Purdy is still injured/turns back into a pumpkin? What if Darnold is still Darnold? Shanny may have gotten surprisingly good results from Nick Mullens, but it's not like that offense was a juggernaut

Lions -- notice a theme here? But it's not just the QB. We're mostly in love with this offense because of the OC. But their skill position "studs" are a slot WR, a rookie RB, a rookie TE and an outside WR who's suspended for the first six games. I'm not saying they definitely will bust, but if it happens the causes will seem obvious in retrospect

 

[pollardsvision]

Ravens.

You all think I'm nuts. Just like you would have if somebody said that 12 months ago about Broncos.

Remember that. HOF QB that just needed to be unleashed. Not confined to a run-first system. Let Russ cook.
Nevermind that the run-first scheme led them to at least 10-12 wins every year. Let's just bring in an OC that just wants to fling it! How hard can that be!

Monken might be exciting for fantasy prospects, but his NFL prospects have just led to inefficient offenses on losing teams. He was great in college when he had superior talent.

I'm old enough to remember when Spurrier and Chip Kelly were going to revolutionize the stodgy old NFL.

This is probably the right answer, but just to throw out a couple of other possibilities:

Falcons -- everyone loves their skill position guys and assumes they'll perform even if Ritter sucks. But what if he really sucks?

49ers -- similar, plus Shanahan is a genius who can turn any QB into a star. But what if Purdy is still injured/turns back into a pumpkin? What if Darnold is still Darnold? Shanny may have gotten surprisingly good results from Nick Mullens, but it's not like that offense was a juggernaut

Lions -- notice a theme here? But it's not just the QB. We're mostly in love with this offense because of the OC. But their skill position "studs" are a slot WR, a rookie RB, a rookie TE and an outside WR who's suspended for the first six games. I'm not saying they definitely will bust, but if it happens the causes will seem obvious in retrospect

This is good stuff.
I spit beer out my nose at "But what if he really sucks?"

All good picks.

Especially the Lions and 49ers. Lions offense was magical last season. GB them, but it could fall apart in a heartbeat.
Heck, the horrible Lions defense might have been the catalyst for that great Lions fantasy offense.

49ers seem to have too much skill position talent to fail, but oh man. We're getting awfully confident in a Purdy/Darnold offense.

 

[Krilons Resa]

Water is wet. The sky is blue. The Jets are gonna Jet.

Some things are just law.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

Without even thinking about other major coaching changes, this has to be up there as one of the bigger upgrades in a long time, of any team.

Hackett, Fangio and Joseph, have to be the worst three coaching choices (in a row), maybe in history.

The difference is massive. Broncos Head Coaches, the last decade, have been a total disaster. Even John Fox was awful. Luckily for them Manning was the one mostly in charge, of the offense anyway. Vic Fangio, while a great DC, was one of the worst coaches I've ever seen. Ever. And Vance Joseph was right there with him. I've never seen two Head Coaches so inept at clock/game management, not to mention leadership. I watched every game and time after time, they literally looked, and were, lost out there. It was hard to believe, really, how in over their head they were.

Yes, I realize Joseph is back, but as a DC, that shouldn't be a problem. I'm certain this team will exceed expectations, the talent is there, they just had no direction at the top. You see it all the time. Payton is proven, obviously, and it was just the opposite with the others, to say the least. Legitimately inept for their role. The contrast will show, I have no doubt. How much exactly, in this first season, we will see, but I think they surprise. One thing's for sure, they have desperately needed this piece of the puzzle for a LONG time now, no question.

 

[Steeler]

Ravens.

You all think I'm nuts. Just like you would have if somebody said that 12 months ago about Broncos.

Remember that. HOF QB that just needed to be unleashed. Not confined to a run-first system. Let Russ cook.
Nevermind that the run-first scheme led them to at least 10-12 wins every year. Let's just bring in an OC that just wants to fling it! How hard can that be!

Monken might be exciting for fantasy prospects, but his NFL prospects have just led to inefficient offenses on losing teams. He was great in college when he had superior talent.

I'm old enough to remember when Spurrier and Chip Kelly were going to revolutionize the stodgy old NFL.

I agree. I'm one of the few people who think L. Jackson is overrated.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

candidates: Raiders, Panthers, Bucs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Titans
leaving off the list the Cardinals and Rams as obvious train wrecks.

Panthers, final answer.

 

[Banger]

candidates: Raiders, Panthers, Bucs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Titans
leaving off the list the Cardinals and Rams as obvious train wrecks.

Panthers, final answer.

I think the Fins are a good call. Amazing wrs but certainly RB questions and Tua is fine but not amazing and is one hit away from his career possibly being over. The division with the Bills, Jets and Pats is really tough.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

candidates: Raiders, Panthers, Bucs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Titans
leaving off the list the Cardinals and Rams as obvious train wrecks.

Panthers, final answer.

No one thinks the Panthers offense will be good

 

[Lansdowne]

The Jets were the first team to come to mind. Offseason champions with newly acquired future HOF QB in tow. Even has Nathaniel Hackett!

 

[GibbsFreeEnergy]

The Jets were the first team to come to mind. Offseason champions with newly acquired future HOF QB in tow. Even has Nathaniel Hackett!

Putrid OL to boot…. Duane Brown is going to be a turnstile

 

[BobbyLayne]

Ravens.

You all think I'm nuts. Just like you would have if somebody said that 12 months ago about Broncos.

Remember that. HOF QB that just needed to be unleashed. Not confined to a run-first system. Let Russ cook.
Nevermind that the run-first scheme led them to at least 10-12 wins every year. Let's just bring in an OC that just wants to fling it! How hard can that be!

Monken might be exciting for fantasy prospects, but his NFL prospects have just led to inefficient offenses on losing teams. He was great in college when he had superior talent.

I'm old enough to remember when Spurrier and Chip Kelly were going to revolutionize the stodgy old NFL.

This is probably the right answer, but just to throw out a couple of other possibilities:

Falcons -- everyone loves their skill position guys and assumes they'll perform even if Ritter sucks. But what if he really sucks?

49ers -- similar, plus Shanahan is a genius who can turn any QB into a star. But what if Purdy is still injured/turns back into a pumpkin? What if Darnold is still Darnold? Shanny may have gotten surprisingly good results from Nick Mullens, but it's not like that offense was a juggernaut

Lions -- notice a theme here? But it's not just the QB. We're mostly in love with this offense because of the OC. But their skill position "studs" are a slot WR, a rookie RB, a rookie TE and an outside WR who's suspended for the first six games. I'm not saying they definitely will bust, but if it happens the causes will seem obvious in retrospect

This is good stuff.
I spit beer out my nose at "But what if he really sucks?"

All good picks.

Especially the Lions and 49ers. Lions offense was magical last season. GB them, but it could fall apart in a heartbeat.
Heck, the horrible Lions defense might have been the catalyst for that great Lions fantasy offense.

49ers seem to have too much skill position talent to fail, but oh man. We're getting awfully confident in a Purdy/Darnold offense.

Lions have an elite OL, ranked #3 in 2022 and #5 heading this season. Detroit’s offensive line never ranked outside the top 10 in the rankings last season and should be notably better with a healthy interior.

Jared Goff was blitzed more times than any other QB last year

1. Goff (186)
2. Herbert (182)
3. Hurts (172)
4. Geno (170)
5. Mahomes (160)

When Goff had less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket he threw 20 TDs and 1 INT.

***************

It’s within the range of outcomes, when you factor in injuries, the Lions Top 5 offense experiences regression. But they’ve upgraded both RB roles IMO, and those road graders run a pretty effective gap scheme. Hard to envision them having trouble moving the ball consistently.

They made significant upgrades on defense. By far the best news of the off-season, though, was retaining Ben Johnson.

***************

The Broncos implosion last year was in part bc of the vacuum of leadership. Terrible HC. The OL was below average (20th) but Wilson was second worst at converting pressure to sacks.

Detroit has good leadership at the top, coordinators and within the locker room. I think they’re very self aware of the increased expectations but they seem to embracing that challenge.

The roster construction has been remarkable, they have good depth everywhere except WR. Losing Chark took away a reliable speedster who developed a good rapport with Jared down the stretch.

I wouldn’t say last year was “magical.” They got there through perseverance and having a schematic advantage offensively. The defense, historically bad through 8 weeks, was a Top 12 unit the last 10 - and they’ll be better this year bc of talent infusion.

They’ve accomplished nothing at the moment. Just another team that missed the playoffs (6 straight years.) But they’re trending in the right direction and favorites to win their first division title in 30 years.

 

[Truebluey]

Jaguars. Nothing meshes and TLaw regresses.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Ravens.

You all think I'm nuts. Just like you would have if somebody said that 12 months ago about Broncos.

Remember that. HOF QB that just needed to be unleashed. Not confined to a run-first system. Let Russ cook.
Nevermind that the run-first scheme led them to at least 10-12 wins every year. Let's just bring in an OC that just wants to fling it! How hard can that be!

Monken might be exciting for fantasy prospects, but his NFL prospects have just led to inefficient offenses on losing teams. He was great in college when he had superior talent.

I'm old enough to remember when Spurrier and Chip Kelly were going to revolutionize the stodgy old NFL.

This is probably the right answer, but just to throw out a couple of other possibilities:

Falcons -- everyone loves their skill position guys and assumes they'll perform even if Ritter sucks. But what if he really sucks?

49ers -- similar, plus Shanahan is a genius who can turn any QB into a star. But what if Purdy is still injured/turns back into a pumpkin? What if Darnold is still Darnold? Shanny may have gotten surprisingly good results from Nick Mullens, but it's not like that offense was a juggernaut

Lions -- notice a theme here? But it's not just the QB. We're mostly in love with this offense because of the OC. But their skill position "studs" are a slot WR, a rookie RB, a rookie TE and an outside WR who's suspended for the first six games. I'm not saying they definitely will bust, but if it happens the causes will seem obvious in retrospect

This is good stuff.
I spit beer out my nose at "But what if he really sucks?"

All good picks.

Especially the Lions and 49ers. Lions offense was magical last season. GB them, but it could fall apart in a heartbeat.
Heck, the horrible Lions defense might have been the catalyst for that great Lions fantasy offense.

49ers seem to have too much skill position talent to fail, but oh man. We're getting awfully confident in a Purdy/Darnold offense.

Lions have an elite OL, ranked #3 in 2022 and #5 heading this season. Detroit’s offensive line never ranked outside the top 10 in the rankings last season and should be notably better with a healthy interior.

Jared Goff was blitzed more times than any other QB last year

1. Goff (186)
2. Herbert (182)
3. Hurts (172)
4. Geno (170)
5. Mahomes (160)

When Goff had less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket he threw 20 TDs and 1 INT.

***************

It’s within the range of outcomes, when you factor in injuries, the Lions Top 5 offense experiences regression. But they’ve upgraded both RB roles IMO, and those road graders run a pretty effective gap scheme. Hard to envision them having trouble no chi ing the ball consistently.

They made significant upgrades on defense. By far the best news of the off-season, though, was retaining Ben Johnson.

***************

The Broncos implosion last year was in part bc of the vacuum of leadership. Terrible HC. The OL was below average (20th) but Wilson was second worst at converting pressure to sacks.

Detroit has good leadership at the top, coordinators and within the locker room. I think they’re very self aware of the increased expectations but they seem to embracing that challenge.

The roster construction has been remarkable, they have good depth everywhere except WR. Losing Chark took away a reliable speedster who developed a good rapport with Jared down the stretch.

I wouldn’t say last year was “magical.” They got there through perseverance and having a schematic advantage offensively. The defense, historically bad through 8 weeks, was a Top 12 unit the last 10 - and they’ll be better this year bc of talent infusion.

They’ve accomplished nothing at the moment. Just another team that missed the playoffs (6 straight years.) But they’re trending in the right direction and favorites to win their first division title in 30 years.

Yes, good point about the OL. I think the Lions will have a good offense this year. But I don't think it's guaranteed

 

[Chardo1]

Not necessarily a team adding a HOF qb(Jets), but an offense that looks good on paper that will sh*t the bed.

I’m thinking the Chiefs- while they won’t be as dismal as last years Broncos, they are only one key player injury away from disaster on offense.

Chiefs don't look good on paper. They look good on the field.

 

[Banger]

Not necessarily a team adding a HOF qb(Jets), but an offense that looks good on paper that will sh*t the bed.

I’m thinking the Chiefs- while they won’t be as dismal as last years Broncos, they are only one key player injury away from disaster on offense.

Chiefs don't look good on paper. They look good on the field.

Mahomes has become like Peyton Manning. Manning had some garbage teams but he just figured it out.…Mahomes just makes everyone better.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Not necessarily a team adding a HOF qb(Jets), but an offense that looks good on paper that will sh*t the bed.

I’m thinking the Chiefs- while they won’t be as dismal as last years Broncos, they are only one key player injury away from disaster on offense.

Chiefs don't look good on paper. They look good on the field.

CHAMPIONSHIPS AREN'T WON ON PAPER, SON!!!!!!

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

candidates: Raiders, Panthers, Bucs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Titans
leaving off the list the Cardinals and Rams as obvious train wrecks.

Panthers, final answer.

No one thinks the Panthers offense will be good

Wait, you don't believe in the "experts" on Good Morning Football?

Nothing says gridiron grit like entitled millenials of dubious orientation and obsession with pop culture.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

I've been saying this all offseason but it's the Jets. If that O-line doesn't get their stuff together Rodgers is going to quit on them. Watching Hard Knocks made it even more obvious, it's HIS team. The coaches have no power over him. If the team isn't amazing out the gate, the NY sports media is going to be on Rodgers jock. He isn't the same golden boy he was in GB, and he might find that out quickly.

Also: Hackett.

 

[massraider]

The Jets.

I think everyone got waaaaay out over their skis on the Jets last year, and then they added Rodgers, and for whatever multiple reasons, New York teams get breathless coverage when they are good. So I think hype is inevitable.
I look at their offensive weapons and I think their defense might need to be special. Because while I think Rodgers/Hall/Wilson and a good defense can beat anyone, I think in order for them to win a good amount of games, they are going to have to outscore offenses that are a more talented than they are. Most weeks, IMO. Or.......if they have a special defense, they can win 24-14.

Or Maybe Rodgers is just done, and that's why they disappoint.

 

[Tanner9919]

Dallas - aging Dak on the wrong side of 30, with a never has been TE, suspect WRs outside of ceedee lamb, and one blown knee of tony pollard to sink the season because they literally have no one to take pollard's place. This is the end of mccarthy in dallas season. bank on it.
NE - o-brien the tea kettle with the bad temper reaching the boiling point daily, will have a hard time getting mac jones in line. this was a bad draft pick by BB and bad usage of the guy. he should've been replaced by now but BBs ego won't let that happen - we'll coach him up! lo, um, no you won't we've seen enough to know this team sucks. bad. 5-6 win season full steam ahead!!
I've been saying it all preseason, and I hope I'm wrong..but Buffalo looks like they're about to take a major step backwards on offense.
Bangles have looked putrid in preseason. maybe, just maybe joe cool v 2.0 ain't all that and a bag o'chips, huh? kinda tired of hearing about this dude. not feeling it with cincy. I'll bet the browns smack the crap out of the Bangles this weekend. Our lips are sealed. it's just another manic monday...
Chargers - kellen moore can't be the best man in a whorehouse with a fist full of benjis. dude's a smarmy arrogant cocky eejit. Herbert's game has already regressed to the 'mean' but might regress further with Moore calling the shots. not a believer in herbert he had one good stat compiler season and mailed it in ever since.
Broncos might surprise some, in that they won't be totally dead, but how the eff are they faves this weekend? somethings fishy here. maybe they're not as bad as thought.
As a K. Herbert owner I really , REALLY want to believe in the Bears - but J. Fields is just not a good QB at all. I can't see them taking a leap forward like some are projecting. Herbert should get his numbers, but I think they struggle mightily on offense otherwise.
Carolina will be a bad offense because they hired frank reich, one of the worst coaches to come down the tpke in a long time.
Not buying the Ravens offense at al always oodles of talk about the ravens every preseason, and they never deliver. LJ is vastly overrated imo. if he has to be a pocket passer type, he can't do it. low comp %. bad Wr's.

People mentioned Jags. Someone betting against Trevor Lawrence, good luck with that. he's going to be a top 5 QB possibly top 3 qb by season's end. the next Peyton Manning.
and Deshaun Watson is going to ball-out all season long. BTW those of you who call him the 'redacted' QB -do you still call Jim Brown by his name or do you redact that as well??? - I mean , ya know, dude was a far worse women hater/basher/abuser/beater and twice convicted felon because of it - then Watson will ever be, just sayin'...JB was the biggest scumbag to ever wear an NFL football jersey aside from maybe rae carruth. oh and joe mixon did a lot worse to women than Watson. so that redacted RB in Cincy will be a big part of why the Bangles fall flat on their collective faces this season.

 

[massraider]

What would be the best emotional roller coaster would be if the Lions hung 49 on the Chiefs Thursday--and then lost their next 4 games.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Dallas - aging Dak on the wrong side of 30, with a never has been TE, suspect WRs outside of ceedee lamb, and one blown knee of tony pollard to sink the season because they literally have no one to take pollard's place. This is the end of mccarthy in dallas season. bank on it.

With all due respect, most teams would struggle if their starting RB blows out his knee. So: "D. All of the Above" was the correct answer. I'd say Dak's age isn't worrisome nor are his weapons. They have a strong defense and decent offensive line. I think realistically, Dallas finishes with 11 wins.

Top Candidates for disappointment are: Jets, 49ers, Dolphins and Eagles.

The Jets offensive line is pretty horrendous and Rodgers isn't as young and mobile as he used to be. He really never had a bad offensive line in GB. It could be interesting.

The 49ers because I am just not sold on their QB. Their skill positions have guys with a past of durability concerns. They lost a few guys to Free Agency, might be an interesting year.

Miami makes this list solely because of Tua and the RB room. Mostert goes down and they're absolutely forced to bring in a Fournette or Hunt. I'm surprised they didn't kick the tires a little more on trading for Johnathon Taylor because that would be huge.

Eagles have all the weapons on offense but we will see what defenses scheme for Hurts. I don't think he's as talented as everyone else thinks and believe him to be a product of circumstance. They lost some key guys on defense and I'm not sure what they're going to do at RB. Swift is a more dynamic player than Miles Sanders but he's certainly not more durable. I don't love Gainwell and Penny isn't very durable either.
.

 

[travdogg]

I like the Lions and Broncos shoutouts, these both seem like .500 type teams to me, where I think their offseason "upgrades" are being grossly overstated.

1 team I'm shocked nobody has mentioned is New Orleans. What if Derek Carr is who he was last year? What if Jon Gruden really did get the best out of him? NO has a declining Kamara (in my opinion) who knows what Thomas has left, and while I do like his prospects, Olave is still a bit of an unknown. The OL is a far cry from what it once was (its secretly one of the worst in the NFL, in my opinion) and they have declined as a team every year since Brees retired. I know its a weak division, but why is NO gonna be the one that steps up, and not say Atlanta?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But what if Purdy is still injured/turns back into a pumpkin?

Just to keep it real here, Purdy was never a Pumpkin. He came out and won 7 straight games with a 107 average QBR.

 

[TripItUp]

Teams I think are at risk of regressing

Bills
Vikings
Chiefs (holdouts and Kelce)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The 2023 broncos.

Tons of hype with Sean Payton, but is Russ gonna cook or is Russ cooked?

I’m not ready to crown them, and they play in a brutal division.

 

[msudaisy26]

Fantasy wise the Seahawks are similar in where their players are being drafted and how they feel pretty safe.

Last year. Sutton round 3/4, Jeudy 5/6, Patrick 9/10. Wilson was being drafted as a backend qb1, Javonte 2/3 turn, Gordon 8/9. Tight ends were kind of an afterthought.

This year. Metcalf 3/4, Lockett 5/6, JSN 7/8. Geno is being drafted as an early QB2, Walker is going around 4/5 and Charbonet at the 8/9. The tight ends aren't normally being drafted.

What does mean? I don't know, but is very similar. Both QBs are in their 30's and both played for the Seahawks in 2021.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The Jets were the first team to come to mind. Offseason champions with newly acquired future HOF QB in tow. Even has Nathaniel Hackett!

Putrid OL to boot…. Duane Brown is going to be a turnstile

Brown was very good last year and played through a torn shoulder. Sure he’s old but there’s no basis for that statement.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

But what if Purdy is still injured/turns back into a pumpkin?

Just to keep it real here, Purdy was never a Pumpkin. He came out and won 7 straight games with a 107 average QBR.

Cindarella contributed 10.7 WAR as a scullery maid. But she was still Ms. Irrelevant

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

I don't think any hyped team will underperform as badly as the '22 Broncos did, that team was an aberration. Many believed they were a favorite to win it all after acquiring RW and ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL. The only team in the NFL that has that kind of bad to good hype train building is the NYJ, but to be honest, the hype is probably warranted.

I do see some media darlings underperforming this season, including Buffalo, Miami and SF but that means a few wins shaved off their win totals, not complete failure.

Raiders are starting to figure out what the Josh McDaniels is and should be awful, but there aren't really an expectations for success there, either.

 

[Stoneworker]

I don't think any hyped team will underperform as badly as the '22 Broncos did, that team was an aberration. Many believed they were a favorite to win it all after acquiring RW and ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL.

This bolded statement is ridiculous.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

I don't think any hyped team will underperform as badly as the '22 Broncos did, that team was an aberration. Many believed they were a favorite to win it all after acquiring RW and ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL.

This bolded statement is ridiculous.

I love revisionist history, and those that parrot it (not really, but you get my point).

Broncos went from a middling team with odds around +2200 to win it all before the trade, to the 5th best odds to win the Super Bowl in all of the NFL. If you want to say that's not chalk, dont' know what to tell you. 5th best team according to the odds, to one of the worst teams in the NFL with massive underperformance from their "star QB" to their entire defense that was expected to be strong. That's rare and wild swings in both betting odds and actual performance.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

For context, the Bengals have the 5th best chance to win the Super Bowl this season, barely behind both the Bills and 49ers. This is in line with where the Broncos were last season after the RW trade, but before the debacle really began in-season.

Jets are 7th this season according to Vegas. Odds haven't changed all that much since the Rodgers trade, this is how much the Jets D was respected before the trade. Hype certainly has popped if you watch local media, national media and/or Hard Knocks. But to be clear, I think the Jets outperform to the upside at least in wins. Once you're in the playoffs, you have a chance at winning it all. Get your popcorn ready.

 

[Stoneworker]

I don't think any hyped team will underperform as badly as the '22 Broncos did, that team was an aberration. Many believed they were a favorite to win it all after acquiring RW and ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL.

This bolded statement is ridiculous.

I love revisionist history, and those that parrot it (not really, but you get my point).

Broncos went from a middling team with odds around +2200 to win it all before the trade, to the 5th best odds to win the Super Bowl in all of the NFL. If you want to say that's not chalk, dont' know what to tell you. 5th best team according to the odds, to one of the worst teams in the NFL with massive underperformance from their "star QB" to their entire defense that was expected to be strong. That's rare and wild swings in both betting odds and actual performance..

These are 538's NFL predictions from 2022. On 9/8/22, the Broncos were 14th at 9-8 W/L and 3% chance to win super bowl. That is what "many" believed. Not any nonsense they were a favorite.

2022 NFL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

I don't think any hyped team will underperform as badly as the '22 Broncos did, that team was an aberration. Many believed they were a favorite to win it all after acquiring RW and ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL.

This bolded statement is ridiculous.

I love revisionist history, and those that parrot it (not really, but you get my point).

Broncos went from a middling team with odds around +2200 to win it all before the trade, to the 5th best odds to win the Super Bowl in all of the NFL. If you want to say that's not chalk, dont' know what to tell you. 5th best team according to the odds, to one of the worst teams in the NFL with massive underperformance from their "star QB" to their entire defense that was expected to be strong. That's rare and wild swings in both betting odds and actual performance..

These are 538's NFL predictions from 2022. On 9/8/22, the Broncos were 14th at 9-8 W/L and 3% chance to win super bowl. That is what "many" believed. Not any nonsense they were a favorite.

2022 NFL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

You just quoted some random simulation to support your point? Stop trolling.

If you don't understand many have to believe you're a favorite to win it all for Vegas to give you the kind of respect received post trade, you're not following along very closely.

 

[kface]

I like the lions and the ravens as the two prime candidates

I just don't think the lions have a winning combo and the ravens are stuck in the mud on O

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But what if Purdy is still injured/turns back into a pumpkin?

Just to keep it real here, Purdy was never a Pumpkin. He came out and won 7 straight games with a 107 average QBR.

Cindarella contributed 10.7 WAR as a scullery maid. But she was still Ms. Irrelevant

His draft stock is irrelevant in the context at hand.

 

[Stoneworker]

I don't think any hyped team will underperform as badly as the '22 Broncos did, that team was an aberration. Many believed they were a favorite to win it all after acquiring RW and ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL.

This bolded statement is ridiculous.

I love revisionist history, and those that parrot it (not really, but you get my point).

Broncos went from a middling team with odds around +2200 to win it all before the trade, to the 5th best odds to win the Super Bowl in all of the NFL. If you want to say that's not chalk, dont' know what to tell you. 5th best team according to the odds, to one of the worst teams in the NFL with massive underperformance from their "star QB" to their entire defense that was expected to be strong. That's rare and wild swings in both betting odds and actual performance..

These are 538's NFL predictions from 2022. On 9/8/22, the Broncos were 14th at 9-8 W/L and 3% chance to win super bowl. That is what "many" believed. Not any nonsense they were a favorite.

2022 NFL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

You just quoted some random simulation to support your point? Stop trolling.

If you don't understand many have to believe you're a favorite to win it all for Vegas to give you the kind of respect received post trade, you're not following along very closely.

No one with any common sense believed the Broncos were a favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2022 over the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Ravens and others.

Let's just leave it at that.

 

[Deamon]

Not necessarily a team adding a HOF qb(Jets), but an offense that looks good on paper that will sh*t the bed.

I’m thinking the Chiefs- while they won’t be as dismal as last years Broncos, they are only one key player injury away from disaster on offense.

Chiefs don't look good on paper. They look good on the field.

Was just about to say the exact same thing lol

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think the Broncos were a trendy narrative pick based on the idea that the two previous Super Bowl winners had brought in a high-profile QB and immediately turned things around. But yeah, by the numbers they were nowhere close to being the favorites. I would actually be curious to see how their preseason odds compared to the Bucs in '20 and the Rams in '21

 

[Anarchy99]

IMO, the team that is most similar to the 2022 Broncos is the 2023 Jets. Strong defense that was one player away from being a true contender . . . a franchise QB. Wilson was brought in after a sub-par last season in SEA and a 6-8 record. The Jets had a solid defense last year and were said to be one player away from being a true contender . . . a franchise QB. Rodgers was brought in after a sub-par last season in GB with an 8-9 record. Both teams had / have a lot of hype and expectations.

The Jets may have gone one better, as they remind me of the 2011 Eagles that were billed as a dream team. PHI had a resurgent season from Michael Vick the season before, went out and added a bunch of high profile players including Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, Nnamdi Asomugha, Vince Young, Ronnie Brown, Evan Mathis, and several others. They ended up 8-8 and missed the playoffs.

I don't know if the Jets will falter, but there is no shortage of people willing to take the cheese and drink the Kool Aid on them heading into the season.

 

[Snotbubbles]

But what if Purdy is still injured/turns back into a pumpkin?

Just to keep it real here, Purdy was never a Pumpkin. He came out and won 7 straight games with a 107 average QBR.

Cindarella contributed 10.7 WAR as a scullery maid. But she was still Ms. Irrelevant

His draft stock is irrelevant in the context at hand.

@ignatiusjreilly Agree with you on Purdy.