Who will win? (1 Viewer)

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Ah yes, because if the Colts don't march into Baltimore and beat the best defense in the league with Manning going "off" for 300/3/0, then Manning is a choker! Let's see, the perfect scenario for the Brady is God and Manning is a choker...Pats beat SD and Balt beats Indy. I'm sure this is how it will play out boys and girls. Place your bets and life happily ever after.

I'm on the fence with Manning, but I'm starting to see the naysayers side. At some point he has to be held responsible for post season shortcomings. A couple questions for you:If the Colts go to the playoffs for the next 5 or 7 years with Manning, but never win, is it fair to call him a choker then? If it is ok to call him a choker at some point, when is it?

 

[roadkill1292]

A rested Ravens team is a dangerous Ravens team. This year they won in New Orleans the week after their bye and won in Kansas City the week after their Thursday game the previous week.

This is perhaps the biggest game in Baltimore since the Ravens moved here. A home playoff game against those guys with the horseshoes on their helmets has stirred the emotions around here like nothing I've ever seen, including the Super Bowl run of 2000. While the history means little to the players, Billick (and the local media) have brought it up to them and asked them to feed off the crowd's energy.

Does this guarantee a win over a team that they have historically struggled with and who matches up with their strengths about as well as anyone? Certainly not, but if the Colts aren't quick off the blocks and ready to weather an early storm, they could be in for a brutal day.

 

[pizzatyme]

Ah yes, because if the Colts don't march into Baltimore and beat the best defense in the league with Manning going "off" for 300/3/0, then Manning is a choker! :X Let's see, the perfect scenario for the Brady is God and Manning is a choker...Pats beat SD and Balt beats Indy. I'm sure this is how it will play out boys and girls. Place your bets and life happily ever after.

I'm on the fence with Manning, but I'm starting to see the naysayers side. At some point he has to be held responsible for post season shortcomings. A couple questions for you:If the Colts go to the playoffs for the next 5 or 7 years with Manning, but never win, is it fair to call him a choker then? If it is ok to call him a choker at some point, when is it?

Fair question. First of all, IIRC, the Colts have had more regular season success than any other team since PM has been in the league. Furthermore, The Colts have been to the playoffs more than any other team since PM has been in the league.What does that say? Their team and coaching are very good at getting there. The team and coaching have not been good enough to overcome their shorcomings when the competition is more intense and better. Yes, Manning has been a big part of the failings and successes. But to call him a choker is wrong.You know as well as I do that teams know the success of the Colts depends on the passing game. Therefore that can gameplan to stop the passing game, which they have. If they have even marginal success against the Colts passing game by either getting turnovers or stops, then the Colts are doomed. Not once have they had a dominant rushing attack or defense. Most will look at a stat sheet and say well Edge ran for this or the defense averaged that, but I have been to most games and watched the others intently. I know my team and it is all about the passing game, period.If Big Ben never wins another Superbowl, is he to be considered a choker? I mean, in the Superbowl Ben had a terrible game. I certainly wouldn't call him a choker. And most wouldn't, simply because he's been a part of a Championship team.In the end, people are free to think what they want. I happen to think I know my team better than most and can clearly see the issues at hand with blinders off.

 

[pizzatyme]

A rested Ravens team is a dangerous Ravens team. This year they won in New Orleans the week after their bye and won in Kansas City the week after their Thursday game the previous week. This is perhaps the biggest game in Baltimore since the Ravens moved here. A home playoff game against those guys with the horseshoes on their helmets has stirred the emotions around here like nothing I've ever seen, including the Super Bowl run of 2000. While the history means little to the players, Billick (and the local media) have brought it up to them and asked them to feed off the crowd's energy.Does this guarantee a win over a team that they have historically struggled with and who matches up with their strengths about as well as anyone? Certainly not, but if the Colts aren't quick off the blocks and ready to weather an early storm, they could be in for a brutal day.

:X Agreed!

 

[Mungo Burrows]

The Ravens are a BAD running team. They are like #24 in the NFL.

They are also #6 in completion percentage for the season and - since Billick took over play-calling - #10 in pass yardage (last 10 games). They are running the West Coast offense very effectively, though I wish they'd throw deep a little more often.

They use the short passing game to set up the run, then use play-action to set up the deep ball, and then grind out the win with a flurry of 3 and 4 yard carries.

It's ironic that the Ravens laid an egg on national TV vs. the Bengals. Consequently, many people are judging them on their one loss in the last 10 weeks, instead of the 9 wins. Ask Pittsburgh fans. This team is a beast, particularly when rested -- which they are -- and when home -- which they are.

To reiterate for those who haven't watched much of the Ravens this season & only know what they hear from a bunch of (misinformed) talking heads: the Ravens are not a stellar running team. The perception that they are flies directly into the face of the facts and is, in part I suspect, based on memories of the 2000 team or Jamal Lewis' 2,000 yard season in 2003. The "running game & defense wins in January" mantra also comes into play here. Now, I think the Ravens can be a better running team than they have been. Billick seems to get away from it sometimes just when it looks like it's getting cranked up (Buffalo game was the most recent example) & Jamal has a tendency to stutter-step instead of slamming his big frame into the defense. It'll be interesting to see if Billick tries harder to establish it in this game more than he did in the regular season.

Come on, guys. You can't let the facts get in the way of people's percerptions. I just can't get over the fact that the same board that's been screaming "Jamal Sucks" for several years now, is suddenly convinced the Ravens are a monster running team this year. Baltimore has the 2nd worst yds/carry average in the NFL this year at 3.4 ypc and they are in the bottom 1/4 of the league for total rushing yards. They run to keep teams honest, not because they're good at it. The key to the ravens offense this year has been balance, short passing, and mixing up the play calling.

 

[avoiding injuries]

The extended forecast is calling for 65 degrees with a 30% chance of rain.

I think that's last Saturday's forecast.

Well it was this week's, but it has since changed to 59 degrees as a high with a 40% chance of rain changing to 60% at night. Sat 1-13

 

[North]

I was curious, what kind of home-field advantage do the Ravens have when the Colts come to town? Is it lessened by those who still consider the Colts their team?

I think I can speak for everyone in Baltimore City and surrounding counties. NO ONE still considers the colts their team in Baltimore unless they just moved here from INDY.As far as home field advantage. The city is going nuts. Not just for a chance to go to the AFC championship game but to stick it to Colt management, that took the colts away in the 1st place.

 

[North]

The Ravens are a BAD running team. They are like #24 in the NFL.

They are also #6 in completion percentage for the season and - since Billick took over play-calling - #10 in pass yardage (last 10 games). They are running the West Coast offense very effectively, though I wish they'd throw deep a little more often.

They use the short passing game to set up the run, then use play-action to set up the deep ball, and then grind out the win with a flurry of 3 and 4 yard carries.

It's ironic that the Ravens laid an egg on national TV vs. the Bengals. Consequently, many people are judging them on their one loss in the last 10 weeks, instead of the 9 wins. Ask Pittsburgh fans. This team is a beast, particularly when rested -- which they are -- and when home -- which they are.

To reiterate for those who haven't watched much of the Ravens this season & only know what they hear from a bunch of (misinformed) talking heads: the Ravens are not a stellar running team. The perception that they are flies directly into the face of the facts and is, in part I suspect, based on memories of the 2000 team or Jamal Lewis' 2,000 yard season in 2003. The "running game & defense wins in January" mantra also comes into play here. Now, I think the Ravens can be a better running team than they have been. Billick seems to get away from it sometimes just when it looks like it's getting cranked up (Buffalo game was the most recent example) & Jamal has a tendency to stutter-step instead of slamming his big frame into the defense. It'll be interesting to see if Billick tries harder to establish it in this game more than he did in the regular season.

Come on, guys. You can't let the facts get in the way of people's percerptions. I just can't get over the fact that the same board that's been screaming "Jamal Sucks" for several years now, is suddenly convinced the Ravens are a monster running team this year. Baltimore has the 2nd worst yds/carry average in the NFL this year at 3.4 ypc and they are in the bottom 1/4 of the league for total rushing yards. They run to keep teams honest, not because they're good at it. The key to the ravens offense this year has been balance, short passing, and mixing up the play calling.

O.K. the ravens may not be the Chargers when it comes to running the ball but look who they are playing. Are the Texans considered a great running team? Last I checked, when Indy needed a win in Houston they got run all over by Dayne. Facts are facts. The Colts are good at home and average on the road. The Ravens are good at home. The Ravens establish the run, the defense shuts down the Indy running game and Manning is left to attempt to win the game. The Ravens will rattle him, he will make some mistakes and the ravens will win.I love how all the sudden Indy fans who were ready to jump off a cliff after the Houston game suddenly forget how bad their run D was afterjust 1 HOME win over a 1 dimensional KC team.

Most on this board are calling for a close game. The Ravens will come out and smack the Colts in the mouth, knock them around and win by 10.Won't even be that close but Manning will be able to pad his stats in the 4th quarter when the game is already out of reach.

 

[jurb26]

The Ravens are a BAD running team. They are like #24 in the NFL.

They are also #6 in completion percentage for the season and - since Billick took over play-calling - #10 in pass yardage (last 10 games). They are running the West Coast offense very effectively, though I wish they'd throw deep a little more often.

They use the short passing game to set up the run, then use play-action to set up the deep ball, and then grind out the win with a flurry of 3 and 4 yard carries.

It's ironic that the Ravens laid an egg on national TV vs. the Bengals. Consequently, many people are judging them on their one loss in the last 10 weeks, instead of the 9 wins. Ask Pittsburgh fans. This team is a beast, particularly when rested -- which they are -- and when home -- which they are.

To reiterate for those who haven't watched much of the Ravens this season & only know what they hear from a bunch of (misinformed) talking heads: the Ravens are not a stellar running team. The perception that they are flies directly into the face of the facts and is, in part I suspect, based on memories of the 2000 team or Jamal Lewis' 2,000 yard season in 2003. The "running game & defense wins in January" mantra also comes into play here. Now, I think the Ravens can be a better running team than they have been. Billick seems to get away from it sometimes just when it looks like it's getting cranked up (Buffalo game was the most recent example) & Jamal has a tendency to stutter-step instead of slamming his big frame into the defense. It'll be interesting to see if Billick tries harder to establish it in this game more than he did in the regular season.

Come on, guys. You can't let the facts get in the way of people's percerptions. I just can't get over the fact that the same board that's been screaming "Jamal Sucks" for several years now, is suddenly convinced the Ravens are a monster running team this year. Baltimore has the 2nd worst yds/carry average in the NFL this year at 3.4 ypc and they are in the bottom 1/4 of the league for total rushing yards. They run to keep teams honest, not because they're good at it. The key to the ravens offense this year has been balance, short passing, and mixing up the play calling.

People that are getting so caught up on the numbers of the Balt running game are not seeing the forest from the trees IMO. Balt does not need to beat Indy with their running game. They have a very good passing attack. Yes, I'll repeat that. Balt does not need to beat Indy with their running game. Anyone who has seen Balt play more than once (being as Pitt fan I have seen them play at least 6 times) knows this. The unfortunate thing for Indy is that even though Balt does not have a statistically good running game, they are a physical team when running the ball. Indy is undersized and weak up front and IMO just does not match up well vs Balt on D. Balt will use a balanced attack and mix in a power running game to keep Indy off balanced. They are going to be fresh after a bye week and play extremely well at home. Indy will have their hands full in this game. If they are to win. I think Manning will have to play one of his best games of the season.

 

[roadkill1292]

The Ravens aren't great at either running or passing the ball. But they're balanced enough to go on those 8- or 9-minute drives in the second half that just tears the guts out of the opposition. Jam the line and McNair finds Heap for a first down. Double the WRs and Jamal punches through for six yards.

For all the talk about their comeback wins this season (San Diego, Cleveland, Tennessee), I bet they've had just as many where they nursed a small lead with a long clock-chewing march. It's hard enough to score on the defense, it's worse when they're fresh and your number of opportunities are suddenly halved.

 

[jurb26]

The Ravens aren't great at either running or passing the ball. But they're balanced enough to go on those 8- or 9-minute drives in the second half that just tears the guts out of the opposition. Jam the line and McNair finds Heap for a first down. Double the WRs and Jamal punches through for six yards.

For all the talk about their comeback wins this season (San Diego, Cleveland, Tennessee), I bet they've had just as many where they nursed a small lead with a long clock-chewing march. It's hard enough to score on the defense, it's worse when they're fresh and your number of opportunities are suddenly halved.

A stat that I have not seen mentioned in this thread (or must have missed if it was). Balt leads the NFL in TOP at 32:49 per game. So, again we have a well rested team that plays physical in the running game, stays on the field for long periods of time and can keep Manning and the Indy O off the field by doing so. This game does not match up well for Indy at all IMO.

 

[roadkill1292]

The Ravens aren't great at either running or passing the ball. But they're balanced enough to go on those 8- or 9-minute drives in the second half that just tears the guts out of the opposition. Jam the line and McNair finds Heap for a first down. Double the WRs and Jamal punches through for six yards.

For all the talk about their comeback wins this season (San Diego, Cleveland, Tennessee), I bet they've had just as many where they nursed a small lead with a long clock-chewing march. It's hard enough to score on the defense, it's worse when they're fresh and your number of opportunities are suddenly halved.

A stat that I have not seen mentioned in this thread (or must have missed if it was). Balt leads the NFL in TOP at 32:49 per game. So, again we have a well rested team that plays physical in the running game, stays on the field for long periods of time and can keep Manning and the Indy O off the field by doing so. This game does not match up well for Indy at all IMO.

Good stat. Now, I've made several posts about what the Ravens can do. Here's how Indy can exploit them: catch McAlister, Rolle and Reed gambling -- something that's not only in the game plan but is in their natures anyway -- and burn 'em deep. Far lesser QBs this year have done just that. But while it wouldn't surprise me to see the secondary get beat twice this weekend, it also wouldn't surprise me to see one of those guys jump a route when Peyton isn't expecting it and take an INT to the house. That could be the margin of victory in this one.

 

[pizzatyme]

The Ravens are a BAD running team. They are like #24 in the NFL.

They are also #6 in completion percentage for the season and - since Billick took over play-calling - #10 in pass yardage (last 10 games). They are running the West Coast offense very effectively, though I wish they'd throw deep a little more often.

They use the short passing game to set up the run, then use play-action to set up the deep ball, and then grind out the win with a flurry of 3 and 4 yard carries.

It's ironic that the Ravens laid an egg on national TV vs. the Bengals. Consequently, many people are judging them on their one loss in the last 10 weeks, instead of the 9 wins. Ask Pittsburgh fans. This team is a beast, particularly when rested -- which they are -- and when home -- which they are.

To reiterate for those who haven't watched much of the Ravens this season & only know what they hear from a bunch of (misinformed) talking heads: the Ravens are not a stellar running team. The perception that they are flies directly into the face of the facts and is, in part I suspect, based on memories of the 2000 team or Jamal Lewis' 2,000 yard season in 2003. The "running game & defense wins in January" mantra also comes into play here. Now, I think the Ravens can be a better running team than they have been. Billick seems to get away from it sometimes just when it looks like it's getting cranked up (Buffalo game was the most recent example) & Jamal has a tendency to stutter-step instead of slamming his big frame into the defense. It'll be interesting to see if Billick tries harder to establish it in this game more than he did in the regular season.

Come on, guys. You can't let the facts get in the way of people's percerptions. I just can't get over the fact that the same board that's been screaming "Jamal Sucks" for several years now, is suddenly convinced the Ravens are a monster running team this year. Baltimore has the 2nd worst yds/carry average in the NFL this year at 3.4 ypc and they are in the bottom 1/4 of the league for total rushing yards. They run to keep teams honest, not because they're good at it. The key to the ravens offense this year has been balance, short passing, and mixing up the play calling.

O.K. the ravens may not be the Chargers when it comes to running the ball but look who they are playing. Are the Texans considered a great running team? Last I checked, when Indy needed a win in Houston they got run all over by Dayne. Facts are facts. The Colts are good at home and average on the road. The Ravens are good at home. The Ravens establish the run, the defense shuts down the Indy running game and Manning is left to attempt to win the game. The Ravens will rattle him, he will make some mistakes and the ravens will win.I love how all the sudden Indy fans who were ready to jump off a cliff after the Houston game suddenly forget how bad their run D was afterjust 1 HOME win over a 1 dimensional KC team.

Most on this board are calling for a close game. The Ravens will come out and smack the Colts in the mouth, knock them around and win by 10.Won't even be that close but Manning will be able to pad his stats in the 4th quarter when the game is already out of reach.

Where are all of these Colts fans you speak of?TIA

 

[Mungo Burrows]

The Ravens are a BAD running team. They are like #24 in the NFL.

They are also #6 in completion percentage for the season and - since Billick took over play-calling - #10 in pass yardage (last 10 games). They are running the West Coast offense very effectively, though I wish they'd throw deep a little more often.

They use the short passing game to set up the run, then use play-action to set up the deep ball, and then grind out the win with a flurry of 3 and 4 yard carries.

It's ironic that the Ravens laid an egg on national TV vs. the Bengals. Consequently, many people are judging them on their one loss in the last 10 weeks, instead of the 9 wins. Ask Pittsburgh fans. This team is a beast, particularly when rested -- which they are -- and when home -- which they are.

To reiterate for those who haven't watched much of the Ravens this season & only know what they hear from a bunch of (misinformed) talking heads: the Ravens are not a stellar running team. The perception that they are flies directly into the face of the facts and is, in part I suspect, based on memories of the 2000 team or Jamal Lewis' 2,000 yard season in 2003. The "running game & defense wins in January" mantra also comes into play here. Now, I think the Ravens can be a better running team than they have been. Billick seems to get away from it sometimes just when it looks like it's getting cranked up (Buffalo game was the most recent example) & Jamal has a tendency to stutter-step instead of slamming his big frame into the defense. It'll be interesting to see if Billick tries harder to establish it in this game more than he did in the regular season.

Come on, guys. You can't let the facts get in the way of people's percerptions. I just can't get over the fact that the same board that's been screaming "Jamal Sucks" for several years now, is suddenly convinced the Ravens are a monster running team this year. Baltimore has the 2nd worst yds/carry average in the NFL this year at 3.4 ypc and they are in the bottom 1/4 of the league for total rushing yards. They run to keep teams honest, not because they're good at it. The key to the ravens offense this year has been balance, short passing, and mixing up the play calling.

O.K. the ravens may not be the Chargers when it comes to running the ball but look who they are playing. Are the Texans considered a great running team? Last I checked, when Indy needed a win in Houston they got run all over by Dayne. Facts are facts. The Colts are good at home and average on the road. The Ravens are good at home. The Ravens establish the run, the defense shuts down the Indy running game and Manning is left to attempt to win the game. The Ravens will rattle him, he will make some mistakes and the ravens will win.

I love how all the sudden Indy fans who were ready to jump off a cliff after the Houston game suddenly forget how bad their run D was afterjust 1 HOME win over a 1 dimensional KC team.

Most on this board are calling for a close game. The Ravens will come out and smack the Colts in the mouth, knock them around and win by 10.Won't even be that close but Manning will be able to pad his stats in the 4th quarter when the game is already out of reach.

You think we're Colts fans trying to cling to hope? I'm pretty sure The_Man, Uruk-Hai and I are all well established around here as being Ravens fans.We're not saying Indy is going to win, we're saying that if anyone thinks Baltimore is the kind of team that is going to try to pound any team into submission with the running game, it's not likely to happen. If they are successful on offense, it will likely be because of a balanced offense that doesn't allow Indy to key on any one factor. Might the Ravens have success against that run defense? Sure. But I don't think they can go into it with the game plan of just running and running. Most of the time, that's not going to work. They've got to mix it up.

 

[BGP]

Looking at my data:

scoring offense and defense:

Ravens (12th offense, 1st defense) = 12+1 = 13

Colts (3rd offense, 23rd defense) 2+23 = 26

All of these numbers are super bowl caliber except the Colts' defensive ranking. 23rd is a liability.

Efficiency - yards divided by points (scored and allowed).

bal 14.65 O, 21.02 D

ind 14.42 O, 14.76 D

Again, the bad number here is the Colts defensive efficiency. The Colts not only have given up a lot of points, but they also give up a lot of points for the yardage they allow.

Point differential:

bal +152

ind +67

Big edge to the Ravens here.

I'll predict a Ravens win. The caveat is that these numbers can be beaten in the second round. They get a LOT tougher to beat in the conference title rounds and super bowl.

 

[Gr00vus]

, we're saying that if anyone thinks Baltimore is the kind of team that is going to try to pound any team into submission with the running game, it's not likely to happen. If they are successful on offense, it will likely be because of a balanced offense that doesn't allow Indy to key on any one factor. Might the Ravens have success against that run defense? Sure. But I don't think they can go into it with the game plan of just running and running. Most of the time, that's not going to work. They've got to mix it up.

I've got a tangent for you here. What would things look like if the Ravens had kept Chester? Totally hypothetical, but I haven't visited many of the Ravens' related threads and I was wondering if the homers have any regrets about how that worked out.

 

[BGP]

, we're saying that if anyone thinks Baltimore is the kind of team that is going to try to pound any team into submission with the running game, it's not likely to happen. If they are successful on offense, it will likely be because of a balanced offense that doesn't allow Indy to key on any one factor. Might the Ravens have success against that run defense? Sure. But I don't think they can go into it with the game plan of just running and running. Most of the time, that's not going to work. They've got to mix it up.

I've got a tangent for you here. What would things look like if the Ravens had kept Chester? Totally hypothetical, but I haven't visited many of the Ravens' related threads and I was wondering if the homers have any regrets about how that worked out.

The problem with the Ravens offense over the years has been that, beyond Ogden, they haven't invested a lot in their OL. They've got a 4th rounder, a 5th rounder, and 2 undrafted players as starters. They've used 2 second round picks on guys who are currently backups. Adam Terry and Chris Chester.You've GOT to win the battle at the line of scrimmage. They simply haven't committed to building the OL. Now, on the DL, they committed big-time with THREE first round picks on it.So when you put the two together, you have the Ravens - an outstanding defensive team, but it has to carry an offense that will never be great until they committ to the OL.Worrying about who the RB is behind that OL is silly.

 

[Gr00vus]

Worrying about who the RB is behind that OL is silly.

Indulge my silliness then.So they seemingly had a choice of going with either Chester or Jamal going into this season, and you're telling me there's really no difference worth considering? That going into this game all other things being equal that it's silly to consider whether they'd rather have Chester than Jamal? (Well it is silly as it can't happen, but I'd still like to see how others feel about it).I'd also like to see your metrics for judging their offensive line to be so horrible. They seem middle of the pack to me.

 

[BGP]

Worrying about who the RB is behind that OL is silly.

Indulge my silliness then.So they seemingly had a choice of going with either Chester or Jamal going into this season, and you're telling me there's really no difference worth considering? That going into this game all other things being equal that it's silly to consider whether they'd rather have Chester than Jamal?I'd also like to see your metrics for judging their offensive line to be so horrible. They seem middle of the pack to me.

No I don't believe there is a difference worth considering. I believe NFL is all about blocking and tackling. The horses up front are average at best, and that will limite what almost any RB can do behind it.This season I'd say the offense is just good enough that they can win a super bowl. That's about the best you can probably hope for.

 

[talongrey]

Colts 28Ravens 27This is going to be a very good game.Gut Check Time..Go Colts

Oh, you are sooooo wrong Why don't you just admit how worried you Colt fans are about Manning losing the big one....again

 

[roadkill1292]

Worrying about who the RB is behind that OL is silly.

Indulge my silliness then.So they seemingly had a choice of going with either Chester or Jamal going into this season, and you're telling me there's really no difference worth considering? That going into this game all other things being equal that it's silly to consider whether they'd rather have Chester than Jamal?I'd also like to see your metrics for judging their offensive line to be so horrible. They seem middle of the pack to me.

No I don't believe there is a difference worth considering. I believe NFL is all about blocking and tackling. The horses up front are average at best, and that will limite what almost any RB can do behind it.This season I'd say the offense is just good enough that they can win a super bowl. That's about the best you can probably hope for.

I agree that the difference in effectiveness between Lewis and Taylor would have been negligible. And I would say that the 2006 Ravens' offense is far superior to the one that won the 2000 Super Bowl.One of the overlooked dynamics of this matchup is that the Colts are led by a coach with a sterling defensive reputation while the Ravens are coached by a man who made his bones on the other side of the ball. It makes me wonder if there isn't some weird long-term strategical design on the part of both organizations. Get a coach whose skills are strongest where your personnel is weakest.As far as the proponents of Indy winning this game, I'd say their confidence is reasonable and justified. The Colts' strengths are obvious to all. You have to look a lot harder to see what makes the Ravens a good team.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

, we're saying that if anyone thinks Baltimore is the kind of team that is going to try to pound any team into submission with the running game, it's not likely to happen. If they are successful on offense, it will likely be because of a balanced offense that doesn't allow Indy to key on any one factor. Might the Ravens have success against that run defense? Sure. But I don't think they can go into it with the game plan of just running and running. Most of the time, that's not going to work. They've got to mix it up.

I've got a tangent for you here. What would things look like if the Ravens had kept Chester? Totally hypothetical, but I haven't visited many of the Ravens' related threads and I was wondering if the homers have any regrets about how that worked out.

The problem with the Ravens offense over the years has been that, beyond Ogden, they haven't invested a lot in their OL. They've got a 4th rounder, a 5th rounder, and 2 undrafted players as starters. They've used 2 second round picks on guys who are currently backups. Adam Terry and Chris Chester.You've GOT to win the battle at the line of scrimmage. They simply haven't committed to building the OL.

Now, on the DL, they committed big-time with THREE first round picks on it.

So when you put the two together, you have the Ravens - an outstanding defensive team, but it has to carry an offense that will never be great until they committ to the OL.

Worrying about who the RB is behind that OL is silly.

They haven't invested many high picks in the O-line, but consider this: how much does it hurt that other than Ray Lewis, they've got a 6th rounder in Thomas and an undrafted free agent in Bart Scott at linebacker? The way the league is set up, the key to success is getting guys who out-perform the price paid for them. It's the only way you can afford a deep, balanced roster.The O-line is playing much better this year than the last year or two. Ogden has probably had his best year in a while. He's still not where he used to be, but he's played very well. Jason Brown has done a very good job filling in for Mulitalo, although playing next to Ogden probably has helped him there. Pashos has been serviceable at RT. The fact that he's not been an embarrassment there is a massive improvement over last year. Vincent is still a liability, although he hasn't seemed as bad as last year, and I still wish they had managed to keep Rabach instead of Flynn.

As mentioned above, they are not a top O-line, but they are not horrible. They are not the same as last year's unit. They are middle-of-the-road overall. They have developed these guys into a better unit than most of their draft spots would seem to indicate, just like they do with so many of their positions.

That said, I agree that the difference between what Jamal produced and what Chester might have produced is not that great. However, I think there are RBs in the NFL who could make a difference and be more successful behind a line of this caliber.

 

[Gr00vus]

That said, I agree that the difference between what Jamal produced and what Chester might have produced is not that great. However, I think there are RBs in the NFL who could make a difference and be more successful behind a line of this caliber.

Denver and Baltimore are the two places I (as a Charger fan) would least like to see Michael Turner end up when he does move on.Back to this game, I admire the class with which the Ravens fans have been conducting themselves. I'd have figured there'd be much more anti-Colt feeling than there seems to be. Maybe that has to do with being the favorites, I dunno.

 

[BGP]

I agree that the difference in effectiveness between Lewis and Taylor would have been negligible. And I would say that the 2006 Ravens' offense is far superior to the one that won the 2000 Super Bowl.

scoring offense and defense2006 Ravens (12th offense, 1st defense)2000 Ravens (15th offense, 1st defense)Efficiency - yards per point2006 bal 14.65 O, 21.02 D2000 bal 15.92 O, 25.12 DWell, the data I look that concur that the 06 Ravens offense is better than the 00 version. it also says the defense is not as good.

 

[roadkill1292]

That said, I agree that the difference between what Jamal produced and what Chester might have produced is not that great. However, I think there are RBs in the NFL who could make a difference and be more successful behind a line of this caliber.

Denver and Baltimore are the two places I (as a Charger fan) would least like to see Michael Turner end up when he does move on.Back to this game, I admire the class with which the Ravens fans have been conducting themselves. I'd have figured there'd be much more anti-Colt feeling than there seems to be. Maybe that has to do with being the favorites, I dunno.

There's a little bit of hostility brewing over in Johnny U's thread (some of it initiated by Browns fans, go figure). But by and large our hatred is reserved for drunken Devil Bob Irsay, not the team itself. Heck, the current Colts team is wonderful to watch if you're a football fan. How many teams consistently display the skills that they do?

 

[pizzatyme]

Food for thought...

2002: Indy wins 22-20

NFL.com does not do the season stats that far back...

2004: Indy wins 20-10; Indy ran for 68 yds and threw for 249 yds

Balt defense ranked 6th overall; 8th against the run; 10th against the pass

2005: Indy wins 24 - 7: Indy ran for 86 yds and threw for 254 yds

Balt defense ranked 5th overall; 9th against the run; 8th against the pass

2006:

Balt defense ranked 1st overall; 2nd against the run; 6th against the pass

It seems as though the Ravens defense keeps getting better, yet the Colts margin of victory keeps getting higher?!

I pray the Purple Pigeons blitz all day! This will only mean 1-on-1's with the WRs and Dallas Clark! Addai has 65 yards rushing and blocks 25 blitzing LBs.

Manning passes for 325/3/1 INT

Colts 27

Purple Pigeons 17

 

[The_Man]

People overestimate the number of blitzes the Ravens bring; it's really only about one-third of the time. But what they do extremely effectively is mix up their pass rushes, utilizing their great versitility to have LBs and DBs rush while DL and LBs dropping back into coverage from a down lineman position. They'll bring 4 guys from the same side of the line so that it feels like a blitz and creates an overload, but then you'll realize they dropped a DE and OLB off the line into coverage and still only brough 4 rushers.

After watching Dallas Clark line up in the slot all day vs. KC, I'm hoping Indy does the same thing vs. Baltimore. This will allow a DB or LB to line up over Clark as if he's in man coverage, then blitz at the snap. Manning will see the blitz and think Clark is the hot read, but meanwhile someone like Terrell Suggs will have dropped back into pass coverage after lining up as the rush OLB in the 3-4 and be right in the passing lane.

 

[roadkill1292]

Food for thought...2002: Indy wins 22-20NFL.com does not do the season stats that far back...2004: Indy wins 20-10; Indy ran for 68 yds and threw for 249 ydsBalt defense ranked 6th overall; 8th against the run; 10th against the pass2005: Indy wins 24 - 7: Indy ran for 86 yds and threw for 254 ydsBalt defense ranked 5th overall; 9th against the run; 8th against the pass2006:Balt defense ranked 1st overall; 2nd against the run; 6th against the passIt seems as though the Ravens defense keeps getting better, yet the Colts margin of victory keeps getting higher?!I pray the Purple Pigeons blitz all day! This will only mean 1-on-1's with the WRs and Dallas Clark! Addai has 65 yards rushing and blocks 25 blitzing LBs.Manning passes for 325/3/1 INTColts 27Purple Pigeons 17

It's this history that makes this such an intriguing matchup. Despite the Ravens' advantages on paper, Manning's successes in the past against them are noteworthy and worrisome if you're a Baltimore fan.

 

[malice]

The Ravens aren't great at either running or passing the ball. But they're balanced enough to go on those 8- or 9-minute drives in the second half that just tears the guts out of the opposition. Jam the line and McNair finds Heap for a first down. Double the WRs and Jamal punches through for six yards.

For all the talk about their comeback wins this season (San Diego, Cleveland, Tennessee), I bet they've had just as many where they nursed a small lead with a long clock-chewing march. It's hard enough to score on the defense, it's worse when they're fresh and your number of opportunities are suddenly halved.

A stat that I have not seen mentioned in this thread (or must have missed if it was). Balt leads the NFL in TOP at 32:49 per game. So, again we have a well rested team that plays physical in the running game, stays on the field for long periods of time and can keep Manning and the Indy O off the field by doing so. This game does not match up well for Indy at all IMO.

Good stat. Now, I've made several posts about what the Ravens can do. Here's how Indy can exploit them: catch McAlister, Rolle and Reed gambling -- something that's not only in the game plan but is in their natures anyway -- and burn 'em deep. Far lesser QBs this year have done just that. But while it wouldn't surprise me to see the secondary get beat twice this weekend, it also wouldn't surprise me to see one of those guys jump a route when Peyton isn't expecting it and take an INT to the house. That could be the margin of victory in this one.

That's how I see it going down...Lewis, Thomas, and Scott should apply the pressure early and often, and eventually Peyton will make his ill-advised, signature desperation throw to Harrison which Reed will take to the house. Without the run game to check down to, he's bound to make a number of forced throws into coverage. Something like BAL 20, IND 16.

 

[Gr00vus]

Manning passes for 325/3/1 INT

Hey, weren't you the guy busting my chops for saying Manning would have to put up a line like that for the Colts to win? And here you are putting up the stats to back me up yourself.

 

[pizzatyme]

Manning passes for 325/3/1 INT

Hey, weren't you the guy busting my chops for saying Manning would have to put up a line like that for the Colts to win? And here you are putting up the stats to back me up yourself.

No, I was busting your chops for saying that if Peyton doesn't get these numbers, then you'd consider him a choker.

 

[Gr00vus]

Manning passes for 325/3/1 INT

Hey, weren't you the guy busting my chops for saying Manning would have to put up a line like that for the Colts to win? And here you are putting up the stats to back me up yourself.

No, I was busting your chops for saying that if Peyton doesn't get these numbers, then you'd consider him a choker not one of the all time greats.

I like my version of things better.

 

[Seymour Corn]

Can't wait for kick-off.

 

[purestrength]

Can't wait for kick-off.

I couldn't agree more.

 

[Gr00vus]

Can't wait for kick-off.

I couldn't agree more.

I will be rooting for the Colts - just like I rooted for the Chiefs and Jets last week.

 

[pizzatyme]

Colts 28Ravens 27This is going to be a very good game.Gut Check Time..Go Colts

Oh, you are sooooo wrong Why don't you just admit how worried you Colt fans are about Manning losing the big one....again

What now say you?

 

[pizzatyme]

Balt 23 Indy 17The game isn't as close as the score would indicate though.

TYVM Please pick against the Colts next week too!

 

[pizzatyme]

I'm only going to say this one time. The Ravens have a hybrid 46 defense of sorts that Ryan Jr has structured and it works very well. Except for guys that can read the blitz, find the open WR/TE, and avoid mistakes. Is Peyton that guy? Marino was that guy when he faced this type of defense. I think Indy is going to put up 20+, the real question is can the Ravens offense keep up or can they at least control the clock. Even though thye have done better the 2nd half of the season I don't think the Ravens offense impresses anyone. Sure the Colts' defense is pretty much like swiss cheese, however Sanders being back in that line up makes a tremendous difference. Indianapolis 24...Baltimore 17Colts will take to the road to play San Diego in a battle of coaches who have never been to the SB...should be fun.

Dear Minitry of pain you will have a painful awakening when the Colts get blown out by the Ravens .How can you believe that the Colts can get to the Super bowl ( They are not getting any better with years ) they could not do it last season or the previous and they are far from having the team they had .Pus i have been saying that for a few years also they have zero leadership and now zero defense = no chance .Manning and Harrison are no leaders ( Great players but no leaders ) they will choke once again .

 

[pizzatyme]

Colts are soft.Baltimare and it won't be pretty.

 

[pizzatyme]

i think the colts are a tougher team than they have been in the past. they have played a lot of closer games and done enough to win. i think the o-line can hold up to the ravens aggressive defense, especially with manning calling it out. that kind of aggression creates mismatches and big plays that favor the colts.

the colts defense will make mcnair beat them and i don't think he has the weapons to do so. the colts showed they could stop the run. they only need to protect the ball, nurse a lead and force mcnair into making a bad decision.

one of two scenarios happens... colts win a close one like 24-17 or the ravens win going away to the tune of 31-14.

i like the colts in this one somehow.

overreact to one week much?

And now what do you have to say oh great one? Overreact to 2 games much?

 

[pizzatyme]

The Ravens are a BAD running team. They are like #24 in the NFL.They are also #6 in completion percentage for the season and - since Billick took over play-calling - #10 in pass yardage (last 10 games). They are running the West Coast offense very effectively, though I wish they'd throw deep a little more often.They use the short passing game to set up the run, then use play-action to set up the deep ball, and then grind out the win with a flurry of 3 and 4 yard carries.It's ironic that the Ravens laid an egg on national TV vs. the Bengals. Consequently, many people are judging them on their one loss in the last 10 weeks, instead of the 9 wins. Ask Pittsburgh fans. This team is a beast, particularly when rested -- which they are -- and when home -- which they are.

Now they are at home watching it on TV just like you!

 

[pizzatyme]

Want Indy to win, think Balt will win. Baltimore 20Indy 14Hope I'm wrong.

ACP, thanks for the positive Karma!

 

[BGP]

Ravens (12th offense, 1st defense)Colts (3rd offense, 23rd defense)Efficiency - yards divided by points (scored and allowed). bal 14.65 O, 21.02 Dind 14.42 O, 14.76 Dbal +152 point differentialind +67 point differentialBoth have good offenses. Yes, the Ravens have a good offense. Most poeple don't notice this. The Ravens have the #1 defense in the NFL, and the Colts have a poor defense. Ravens should win.

What are you basing the Ravens being the 12th best offense on. Is it total points or total yards. And if it's total points, do they subtract the points that the defense scored this year?

Its total points. I don't subtract points scored by the defense, because the data as-is becomes incredibly strong when you reach the level of the conference title games / super bowl. The data isn't as good at predicting the outcome of the wild card / divisional round.

 

[BGP]

Here's an interesting fact based on my data here:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=efficiency

The 2006 Colts have a defensive efficiency of 14.76. That is the worst defensive rating of ANY club to play in an NFC or AFC title game since 1990. The previous low was the 1995 Steelers, who had a DE of 14.78. They won the AFC title game pver the Colts that season. Only one other team got this far with a DE under 15: The 2003 Colts, who had a DE of 14.92. They lost to the Patriots in that game.

 

[pizzatyme]

Here's an interesting fact based on my data here:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=efficiency

The 2006 Colts have a defensive efficiency of 14.76. That is the worst defensive rating of ANY club to play in an NFC or AFC title game since 1990. The previous low was the 1995 Steelers, who had a DE of 14.78. They won the AFC title game pver the Colts that season. Only one other team got this far with a DE under 15: The 2003 Colts, who had a DE of 14.92. They lost to the Patriots in that game.

Seems like your data is flawed if you don't include what happens in the playoffs! The Colts are averaging 6.5 points against during the playoffs. How does that stat calculate for ya?