ESPN early win totals. https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL/status/1904986093545750595
Jets at 5.5.
Which side are you?
Jets at 5.5.
Which side are you?
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Early Win Totals - Jets at 5.5 - Which Side Are You? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Over. Six or seven. I went with seven earlier in the Jets thread, so I'll stick with it, but I'm not inspired by my own pick. I think six is a better number, and I'm not sure the Jets get that.
I'll break it down by positions or groups of players that go together either position-wise or thematically (WRs and DBs).
They lost an awful lot from, had down years from, or never had anything good in their outside skill position rooms (WR and DB) aside from Garrett Wilson and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner. They've got no WR2 to speak of yet, and their CB1, the aforementioned Sauce, was not good last year. Their very good CB2, D.J. Reed, has gone to Detroit. Michael Carter II comes back as their nickel back. They return one safety in Tony Adams, but four other DBs left in free agency. They signed Andre Cisco and Brett Stephens to replace Chuck Clark at S and Reed at CB, respectively. I mean, there is a lot of turnover and they're thin. I've never even heard of their DBs from anywhere.
Their starting DEs are Will McDonald and Jermaine Johnson, one of whom can't set an edge and gets washed in the run game and the other who is coming back from an achilles tear from just last year, so he's a ways away from being in tip-top shape or function. So not good there.
Their DTs are either excellent or meh. Quinnen Williams is excellent, but he didn't have a banner year last year. Derrick Nnadi, the other presumed starter, is a nonentity, really.
Their OL is something I argued about in the Jets thread. I don't think they're that good. Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are gone. That's both tackles and this is not a tackle-heavy draft. Right now they have the second-year Olu Fashanu at LT and and Carter Warren at RT (never heard of him). FBGs has them ranked 9th overall as of 1/18/25, but that seems exceedingly high given that they have now lost those two aforementioned tackles. There's also another discrepancy. According to FBG, they rate 23rd in run blocking and 20th in pass blocking in that very same article, so I'm really skeptical that 23rd and 20th (which sounds right) in the run and pass game adds up to 9th overall. What? Did the jump happen from special teams blocking? Heh. Don't ask about how the sausage is made, I guess.
Their best rooms are the running back and linebacker rooms, and unfortunately those aren't premier positions (they're low impact for the most part) and have a question mark or two. Jamien Sherwood and Quincy Williams make a formidable linebacking pair and Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis are a very good group of RBs, but can Breece Hall regain his rookie magic? His year last year was painful. Whether it was the blocking or injury, he looked like he had lost a step and had no contact balance whatsoever. He didn't avoid guys, and he just crumpled to the ground often upon first contact. If he returns to form, then they're set. If not, expect the other guys to get touches (guys that aren't as good as Breece).
And then you have the most important room, the QB room. Justin Fields is their QB right now before the draft. They might draft a QB, so I'm not going to spend a ton of ink on him, but many thought he was the guy they should have taken over Zach Wilson back when they took Zach with the 2nd overall pick of 2020. Fields brings speed and power to the running game. The million dollar question is his processing speed and intermediate accuracy. He's got a nice deep ball, but it's seeing the field that seems to be his big issue. He improved his completion percentage to over 64% last year in Pittsburgh, so that's a start, but man, I've watched this guy and I'm just not sold. But as long as there's continued improvement, the Jets will make do. They haven't had competent quarterbacking since Chad Pennington, really, and if you twist a Jets fan's arm enough, he might tell you the departed Aaron Rodgers was their best QB since 2003 or so, and he was a shell of his former self.
And that's about it. P and K should be solved by the end of camp, but K cost us dearly last year. Probably about 1.5 or 2 games. Terrible. I hope Zuerlein has to compete with Anders Carlson for a job. Thomas Morstead is a professional punter, but he's below average in PFF Grade and of average yards for starting punters.
TL;DR Not much to like about this team yet. We shall see.
I'll break it down by positions or groups of players that go together either position-wise or thematically (WRs and DBs).
They lost an awful lot from, had down years from, or never had anything good in their outside skill position rooms (WR and DB) aside from Garrett Wilson and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner. They've got no WR2 to speak of yet, and their CB1, the aforementioned Sauce, was not good last year. Their very good CB2, D.J. Reed, has gone to Detroit. Michael Carter II comes back as their nickel back. They return one safety in Tony Adams, but four other DBs left in free agency. They signed Andre Cisco and Brett Stephens to replace Chuck Clark at S and Reed at CB, respectively. I mean, there is a lot of turnover and they're thin. I've never even heard of their DBs from anywhere.
Their starting DEs are Will McDonald and Jermaine Johnson, one of whom can't set an edge and gets washed in the run game and the other who is coming back from an achilles tear from just last year, so he's a ways away from being in tip-top shape or function. So not good there.
Their DTs are either excellent or meh. Quinnen Williams is excellent, but he didn't have a banner year last year. Derrick Nnadi, the other presumed starter, is a nonentity, really.
Their OL is something I argued about in the Jets thread. I don't think they're that good. Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are gone. That's both tackles and this is not a tackle-heavy draft. Right now they have the second-year Olu Fashanu at LT and and Carter Warren at RT (never heard of him). FBGs has them ranked 9th overall as of 1/18/25, but that seems exceedingly high given that they have now lost those two aforementioned tackles. There's also another discrepancy. According to FBG, they rate 23rd in run blocking and 20th in pass blocking in that very same article, so I'm really skeptical that 23rd and 20th (which sounds right) in the run and pass game adds up to 9th overall. What? Did the jump happen from special teams blocking? Heh. Don't ask about how the sausage is made, I guess.
Their best rooms are the running back and linebacker rooms, and unfortunately those aren't premier positions (they're low impact for the most part) and have a question mark or two. Jamien Sherwood and Quincy Williams make a formidable linebacking pair and Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis are a very good group of RBs, but can Breece Hall regain his rookie magic? His year last year was painful. Whether it was the blocking or injury, he looked like he had lost a step and had no contact balance whatsoever. He didn't avoid guys, and he just crumpled to the ground often upon first contact. If he returns to form, then they're set. If not, expect the other guys to get touches (guys that aren't as good as Breece).
And then you have the most important room, the QB room. Justin Fields is their QB right now before the draft. They might draft a QB, so I'm not going to spend a ton of ink on him, but many thought he was the guy they should have taken over Zach Wilson back when they took Zach with the 2nd overall pick of 2020. Fields brings speed and power to the running game. The million dollar question is his processing speed and intermediate accuracy. He's got a nice deep ball, but it's seeing the field that seems to be his big issue. He improved his completion percentage to over 64% last year in Pittsburgh, so that's a start, but man, I've watched this guy and I'm just not sold. But as long as there's continued improvement, the Jets will make do. They haven't had competent quarterbacking since Chad Pennington, really, and if you twist a Jets fan's arm enough, he might tell you the departed Aaron Rodgers was their best QB since 2003 or so, and he was a shell of his former self.
And that's about it. P and K should be solved by the end of camp, but K cost us dearly last year. Probably about 1.5 or 2 games. Terrible. I hope Zuerlein has to compete with Anders Carlson for a job. Thomas Morstead is a professional punter, but he's below average in PFF Grade and of average yards for starting punters.
TL;DR Not much to like about this team yet. We shall see.
Last edited:
TomServo
Footballguy
I voted under. I just couldn't pick six games that I thought they would win. I italicized the ones that I thought they had a good chance. The Jets could obviously surprise, and I could just be a jaded Jets fan.
2025 Opponents
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars
2025 Opponents
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
EARLY NFL Win Totals
Eagles: 11.5
Chiefs: 11.5
Ravens: 11.5
Bills: 11.5
Commanders: 10.5
49ers: 10.5
Chargers: 10.5
Lions: 10.5
Bengals: 10.5
Bucs: 9.5
Rams: 9.5
Texans: 9.5
Packers: 9.5
Broncos: 9.5
Seahawks: 8.5
Steelers: 8.5
Vikings: 8.5
Dolphins: 8.5
Cowboys: 8.5
Bears: 8.5
Cardinals: 8.5
Falcons: 7.5
Patriots: 7.5
Jaguars: 6.5
Colts: 6.5
Panthers: 6.5
Titans: 5.5
Jets: 5.5
Saints: 5.5
Raiders: 5.5
Giants: 4.5
Browns: 4.5
Eagles: 11.5
Chiefs: 11.5
Ravens: 11.5
Bills: 11.5
Commanders: 10.5
49ers: 10.5
Chargers: 10.5
Lions: 10.5
Bengals: 10.5
Bucs: 9.5
Rams: 9.5
Texans: 9.5
Packers: 9.5
Broncos: 9.5
Seahawks: 8.5
Steelers: 8.5
Vikings: 8.5
Dolphins: 8.5
Cowboys: 8.5
Bears: 8.5
Cardinals: 8.5
Falcons: 7.5
Patriots: 7.5
Jaguars: 6.5
Colts: 6.5
Panthers: 6.5
Titans: 5.5
Jets: 5.5
Saints: 5.5
Raiders: 5.5
Giants: 4.5
Browns: 4.5
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Dolphins 8.5
UNDER
Patriots 7.5
OVER
UNDER
Patriots 7.5
OVER
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Raiders 5.5
OVER
Pete Carroll is not going to win 5 games or less, they're going to expect a big improvement or this marriage will be short lived. 8-9 wins is my guess
Jets 5.5
UNDER as hard as that might be to believe
I feel like Fields is just temporary so they can line themselves up for the '26 Draft Class at QB, whoever they are
OVER
Pete Carroll is not going to win 5 games or less, they're going to expect a big improvement or this marriage will be short lived. 8-9 wins is my guess
Jets 5.5
UNDER as hard as that might be to believe
I feel like Fields is just temporary so they can line themselves up for the '26 Draft Class at QB, whoever they are
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Commanders 10.5
UNDER all day, they were not a great team but definitely found their QB, had a lot of free agents to deal with this off season
49ers 10.5
UNDER
Chargers 10.5
UNDER
Not sold they are a yearly Playoff team just yet
Feel strongest about the Commanders not repeating then the Niners ceiling right now feels like 10 games, they are reloading at some spots
The Chargers need a lot more at the skill positions IMHO
UNDER all day, they were not a great team but definitely found their QB, had a lot of free agents to deal with this off season
49ers 10.5
UNDER
Chargers 10.5
UNDER
Not sold they are a yearly Playoff team just yet
Feel strongest about the Commanders not repeating then the Niners ceiling right now feels like 10 games, they are reloading at some spots
The Chargers need a lot more at the skill positions IMHO
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Still alot of talent here. New GM/HC combo can bring about a new enthusiasm. Not predicting anything wild, but 6-7 wins feels very plausible.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
You know there hasn't been a repeat NFC East Champion since 2004. Just based on that, I'd be tempted to take the over on either WAS and/or DAL.
5.5 feels like a great over/under. I think the Jets have a load of holes. Its tough to argue they've gotten better this offseason, unless you think Aaron Glenn is gonna be an excellent HC. Guys like DJ Reed, Davante Adams, and arguably Aaron Rodgers (though I'm a Fields fan) were all replaced with lesser players. Also New England looks much improved, especially on defense. I think the Jets finish last in the AFC East.
They did sign Chuk Okorafor (former Steelers starter) who while more of a swing tackle talent, is probably starting ahead of Carter Warren.
Agreed, I don't get those OL rankings at all. They weren't as good as 9th last year and only have gotten worse.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
IMO fields wins them 6 games+.
Draft pending, of course.
Draft pending, of course.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Their QB has moxie.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
5.5 feels right to me. They feel a couple of years away. Fields stays healthy, this could get to 7 wins.
