Who will win? (3 Viewers)

[PatsWillWin]

This weekend marks the 5 year annivesary of the Tuck Rule game.

Factor/Not a factor? You decide.

 

[David Yudkin]

The best example I could come up with where both teams played their best was the 85 NCAA championship basketball game when Villanova defeated Georgetown. Both teams played lights out and the game was hotly contested and defended. IIRC, Villanova miraculously shot 80% from the floor on the night to win by 2 points. Both teams played exceptionally well, neither team held a lead of more than a few points, and it came right down to the wire. Even though Villanova made a high percentage of shots, they were mostly from long range and the Hoya players were in their faces the entire game.

 

[David Yudkin]

This weekend marks the 5 year annivesary of the Tuck Rule game.Factor/Not a factor? You decide.

If it snows, we're all in trouble.

 

[Banger]

I also don't ever remember a playoff game where I watched and came away saying, "man, what a great game plan from Marty". He's a great coach, great teacher, and great motivator. He's not a great schemer and game planner. That's why he's had so many great teams exit the playoffs early. I see it happening again.

You don't have to worry about that because Marty has turned over play calling/strategy to his OC and DC.

 

[Banger]

Ron Borges is a notorious Patriots/Belichick basher around these parts, so take everything he says with a grain of salt. And Tony Masseroti is the little yap-dog that everyone else picks on and makes fun of.

Look, nothing's changed... "The Patriots can't possibly beat the Chargers. They are the best team in football. They have all the regular-season stats. They have 9 Pro Bowlers. The Pats have no-names."

But I have heard all this before! Nobody thinks the Patriots can beat their on-paper superiors until they actually do. I have faith they will do it again.

I guess we'll all have to disagree and wait and see. And should the Chargers win, I will give credit where credit is due. Hope you Chargers fans can do the same. Can't wait till Sunday!

Pats 23, Chargers 13.

I don't think anyone thinks that the Pats can't beat the Chargers. I certainly think they can beat them, I'd say if they played 10 times the Pats would win 4.

 

[Mahoney]

You picked a game of golf where one side has nothing to do with the outcome of the other side. Football is different.

No, they're the same for this purpose; the principle is just easier to understand in golf.Playing your best golf game means hitting the ball solidly and accurately, etc., and has nothing to do with your opponent.

Similarly, playing your best in football means running fast or imparting a lot of force in your blocks, etc., and has nothing to do with your opponent.

If the most force I can possibly impart in a block is 365 pounds, then I am blocking my best whenever I impart that force. Maybe I will block my best and fail to move my opponent, and maybe I will block very weakly and still get a good push. The result doesn't matter; only my own performance does.

Similarly, if I cam capable of running a 4.56, then I am running my best down the sideline whenever I hit that top speed. Whether I get caught from behind or not does not determine whether I'm running my best. That has to do with my opponent. Results don't matter; only my own performance matters.

Just like in golf.

I don't see how 2 play-off quality teams can play their best game simultanteously when in doing so you are preventing, on one side of the ball, the other team from hitting their best game.

Incorrect. Just because the DB chases me down by running a 4.3 does not mean that running a 4.56 is not my best.

If the Chargers are playing their best game defensively, the Pats aren't moving the ball.

This is probably true, but it doesn't follow as a matter of analytic truth. If a Pop Warner team is playing its best game defensively, the Patriots would still move the ball very easily against it.

HmmmHere I was thinking you were being dismissive and general when in fact you were being as literal as humanly possible. I'll have to chew on that for a little while. I suppose by that fundamental a definition you are correct that 2 teams can play their best simultaneously. I'm not sure judging that level of "Best" is humanly measurable in the context of an 11 on 11 live sport.

 

[Gr00vus]

The best example I could come up with where both teams played their best was the 85 NCAA championship basketball game when Villanova defeated Georgetown. Both teams played lights out and the game was hotly contested and defended. IIRC, Villanova miraculously shot 80% from the floor on the night to win by 2 points. Both teams played exceptionally well, neither team held a lead of more than a few points, and it came right down to the wire. Even though Villanova made a high percentage of shots, they were mostly from long range and the Hoya players were in their faces the entire game.

I'd submit the Lakers/Kings playoff series from a few years ago as another example.

 

[Gr00vus]

Looks like Jaques Cesaire will sit (from the SD UnionTrib):

Backup defensive end Jacques Cesaire (knee) missed practice again and seems increasingly unlikely to be ready for Sunday.

I hope Castillo's ankle holds up. Maybe we'll see some back flips from Marques Harris?

 

[Tau837]

You picked a game of golf where one side has nothing to do with the outcome of the other side. Football is different.

No, they're the same for this purpose; the principle is just easier to understand in golf.Playing your best golf game means hitting the ball solidly and accurately, etc., and has nothing to do with your opponent.

Similarly, playing your best in football means running fast or imparting a lot of force in your blocks, etc., and has nothing to do with your opponent.

If the most force I can possibly impart in a block is 365 pounds, then I am blocking my best whenever I impart that force. Maybe I will block my best and fail to move my opponent, and maybe I will block very weakly and still get a good push. The result doesn't matter; only my own performance does.

Similarly, if I cam capable of running a 4.56, then I am running my best down the sideline whenever I hit that top speed. Whether I get caught from behind or not does not determine whether I'm running my best. That has to do with my opponent. Results don't matter; only my own performance matters.

Just like in golf.

I don't see how 2 play-off quality teams can play their best game simultanteously when in doing so you are preventing, on one side of the ball, the other team from hitting their best game.

Incorrect. Just because the DB chases me down by running a 4.3 does not mean that running a 4.56 is not my best.

If the Chargers are playing their best game defensively, the Pats aren't moving the ball.

This is probably true, but it doesn't follow as a matter of analytic truth. If a Pop Warner team is playing its best game defensively, the Patriots would still move the ball very easily against it.

HmmmHere I was thinking you were being dismissive and general when in fact you were being as literal as humanly possible. I'll have to chew on that for a little while. I suppose by that fundamental a definition you are correct that 2 teams can play their best simultaneously. I'm not sure judging that level of "Best" is humanly measurable in the context of an 11 on 11 live sport.

Also consider that "best" in football is impacted by the opponent. That is, it is influenced by the playcalling and the caliber of play of the opposing team.A team's best effort will yield different results based on the other team's playcalling. If a team comes out and calls 90% runs or 90% passes against the same defense which is playing its best, it will likely yield different results.

A team's best effort will also yield different results based on whether the opposing players play their best. That is, if your team plays Randy Moss's team and your defensive players play their absolute best, the their success still varies widely based on how well Randy Moss plays... and that isn't just about how his play is affected by your defense. We all know that he sometimes doesn't give his all.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Little sumthin' sumthin' for Charger fans

 

[UCLAGIE]

New England at San Diego

Link

Patriots on Offense

NE OFF SD DEF

DVOA 12.2% (7) -1.1% (14)

WEI DVOA 12.5% (7) 4.1% (17)

PASS 20.6% (6) -3.2% (11)

RUSH 3.8% (8) 1.5% (22)

RED ZONE 37.4% (2) 44.1% (32)

Chargers on Offense

SD OFF NE DEF

DVOA 24.4% (2) -8.4% (8)

WEI DVOA 23.4% (2) -13.4% (5)

PASS 26.3% (3) -9.9% (7)

RUSH 22.8% (1) -6.5% (10)

RED ZONE 63.0% (1) -35.3% (3)

Special Teams

NE SD

DVOA 2.6% (8) 4.4% (3)

NE kickoff 5.3 (11) 2.4 (10)

SD kickoff 16.6 (1) 8.4 (6)

NE punts -5.9 (25) -3.4 (27)

SD punts 4.9 (4) 10.8 (4)

FG/XP -5.5 (28) 7.8 (6)

During the game, please join the discussion in the Patriots-Chargers Game Discussion Thread.

Also of interest: A November Every Play Counts on the San Diego offense and this Any Given Sunday on New England’s worst game of the year, the loss to Miami in Week 14. Also, Too Deep Zone articles on running and passing from multiple-tight end sets, which both the Patriots and Chargers use frequently.

We’ll start this with the same announcement that has started every Patriots playoff preview I’ve written during the four years of Football Outsiders: I’m a Patriots fan. If you want to look for hints of bias in the preview, you are welcome to do so.

However, it is not my personal rooting interest that leads me to say that New England is just as good as San Diego. It’s the numbers. This is not like last year, when the Patriots weren’t even in the DVOA top ten and Patriots fans were slightly deluded, counting on Bill Belichick’s magic beans to hand-deliver them a third straight championship. The 2006 Patriots are one of the league’s elite teams again. This team is not as good as the 2004 team that won the Super Bowl, but it is as good as the 2003 team that won the Super Bowl, and as good as the current Chargers.

These are the two both balanced teams in the league. Both can pass the ball and stop the pass. Both can run and stop the run (except in one important situation, as you’ll see below). Both are good on special teams. The Patriots were a slightly better team over the second half of the season (higher weighted DVOA), but the Chargers were more consistent over the whole year (higher total DVOA and less variance). Home-field advantage and a week of rest makes San Diego the slight favorite, just as it makes New Orleans the slight favorite on Saturday night.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

If the Patriots beat the Chargers on Sunday, they can thank the New York Jets. The reason has to do with New York’s midseason upset, not New England’s first-round playoff victory.

Back in their Week 10 win, the Jets shut down the New England offense by blitzing Tom Brady relentlessly. In response, the Patriots altered their protection schemes, leaving more blockers and giving Brady more time to throw. That’s key against San Diego’s hellacious pass rush, particularly linebacker Shawne Merriman, who led the league with 17 sacks despite a four-game suspension. Left tackle Matt Light has not played as well this year as in seasons past, and the Patriots can’t let him try to take on Merriman alone.

The Patriots receivers have been derided all year as a bunch of no-names, but if Brady has time to throw, he can usually find one of them open. Occasionally the Patriots will go deep, but most of their passing game consists of slowly marching down the field in chunks of seven or eight yards, augmented by handoffs to Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney.

Watch for Brady to pick on cornerback Quentin Jammer; although he’s the best-known name in the San Diego secondary, both Drayton Florence and Antonio Cromartie played far better this season.

A look at the numbers during Merriman’s suspension shows just how important he is to the Chargers. With Merriman, San Diego was one of the top ten pass defenses. Without him, they were one of the ten worst. If we left out the four weeks without Merriman, San Diego’s defense would be 10th in DVOA for the season and 12th in weighted DVOA.

Both of these teams are strong on first down: the Patriots offense is fifth in DVOA on first down, the Chargers defense eighth. The problem for San Diego comes on third down, where the Patriots rank third and the Chargers 18th. The Patriots were above-average on third down no matter how many yards were left to go, but the main issue here is third-and-short. The Patriots converted 82% of short-yardage situations, leading the NFL, while the Chargers stopped just 22% of these runs, which ranked 31st. Even a stop on third down won’t necessarily stop a drive, since the Patriots converted 16 of 19 opportunities on fourth down.

These issues on third and fourth down are the sole reason why the Patriots’ running game ranks so much higher than the San Diego run defense. If we only consider first and second down, New England’s running game ranks 14th in DVOA and the San Diego run defense ranks 15th. On third and fourth down, New England’s running game ranks second and the San Diego run defense ranks 30th.

The Chargers also need to keep the Patriots out of the red zone, where the Patriots offense is second in DVOA and the Chargers defense ranks dead last. It’s more than just scoring touchdowns instead of field goals. Neither Brady nor the San Diego defense had any interceptions in the red zone.

WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL

Excited Patriots fans often dismiss the NFL’s other teams as pretenders to the throne. But even the most obnoxious moron testing the limits of hubris on the WEEI Whiner Line has to acknowledge the greatness of the San Diego Chargers offense, led by MVP LaDainian Tomlinson and the best tight end in the league, Antonio Gates.

Young quarterbacks tend to struggle when they face a Bill Belichick defense for the first time, but Philip Rivers isn’t your average young quarterback. In his first year as San Diego’s starter, Rivers was one of the top quarterbacks in the league as well as one of the most consistent. That being said, his bad games were pretty much all in recent weeks, as he completed just 8 of 23 passes against Kansas City in Week 15 and just 10 of 30 against Seattle in Week 16.

Belichick will surely attack Rivers with hard-to-decipher blitz schemes, but the most important battle along the line will be one of the most simple. Left tackle Marcus McNeill enjoyed an outstanding rookie year, but it will be hard for him to handle Richard Seymour without some assistance.

The San Diego running game does the most damage on runs to the side, since both Tomlinson and his backup Michael Turner are spectacular once they get into space. Tomlinson’s long touchdowns aside, the blocking up the middle is actually average. If the Patriots can somehow get the Chargers to run right up into the teeth of their all-first round defensive line, they can contain Tomlinson (contain here being a relative term).

The Chargers were number one in rushing yardage gained more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, but the Patriots don’t allow a lot of long touchdown runs. The Patriots were number one in preventing such yardage for three straight seasons, and they were leading the league in preventing double-digit runs for the fourth straight season until two weeks ago. Maurice Jones-Drew’s "not down by contact" 74-yard touchdown in Week 16 changed that statistic, but it’s unlikely to be repeated by Tomlinson.

(Actually, New England’s collapse in the "10+ Yards" stat is an interesting little story. Until Week 14, the Patriots had not given up a single run all year of more than 21 yards, but they gave up four such runs in the final four games. The first was 44 yards by Sammy Morris on the last non-kneel play of Miami’s Week 14 shutout. Then came Jones-Drew. Add on a couple of long runs by Travis Henry in the final game of the year, and the Patriots dropped from first to 20th in this stat in two weeks. The first one was meaningless, the second one a fluke. It’s those Henry runs that should worry defensive coordinator Dean Pees.)

The biggest area where Tomlinson can hurt New England is catching passes out of the backfield. That’s a problem for the Patriots defense and an area where Tomlinson excels.

Like the Chargers, the Patriots have a strong starting cornerback, Asante Samuel, and a weak starting cornerback, Chad Scott. The Patriots often clamp down on the opposition’s top receiver, only to allow a huge game to the number two option. For the Chargers, that could mean a big day for big second-year receiver Vincent Jackson. The idea of Scott or the diminutive Ellis Hobbs trying to cover Jackson or Antonio Gates is enough to make a famous fellow Patriots fan throw up in his own mouth while simultaneously setting himself on fire.

One more important note: both of these teams dial it up at the end of games. San Diego’s offensive DVOA more than doubles in the fourth quarter — while the Patriots’ defensive DVOA more than triples.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Patriots had the best kickoff returns in the league, and also excelled on punt returns, but San Diego was one of the top teams for both kickoffs and punts, making this a battle of strengths. Each team’s main weakness on special teams matches up as well: the Patriots ranked 25th on punts, the Chargers 27th on punt returns. Nate Kaeding was a better field-goal kicker than Stephen Gostkowski this year, but the difference is a bit exaggerated because of Gostkowski’s early struggles. In the first four weeks of the season, was the worst field-goal kicker in the league who didn’t also punt. Since Week 5, including last week’s wild card game, Gostkowski has been worth 2.3 points more than an average field-goal kicker in the same conditions.

OUTLOOK

If you can’t enjoy a game between two teams with this much talent, you probably should avoid watching football for the rest of your life.

 

[Gr00vus]

The Patriots often clamp down on the opposition’s top receiver, only to allow a huge game to the number two option. For the Chargers, that could mean a big day for big second-year receiver Vincent Jackson. The idea of Scott or the diminutive Ellis Hobbs trying to cover Jackson or Antonio Gates is enough to make a famous fellow Patriots fan throw up in his own mouth while simultaneously setting himself on fire.

That's what I'm talking about. It would be very Belichickian for him to recognize that and stick Samuel on Jackson when Jackson is in the game.

 

[Liquid Tension]

And I haven't dimissed LT. I just think that he will not be allowed to TAKE OVER the game. He'll have a good day, I don't think we'll be able to stop him - but slow him down some, maybe.I have the utmost confidence in the front 3. Wilfork and Warren have been outstanding this year, and Seymour is Seymour. This isn't a line that get's blown off the ball; they play solid, disciplined football.Talking about LT, what actually worries me more is the LB and DBs. I think Vrabel has had a very good year, but overall, I think the LB tackling has been average. The tackling in the secondary and by abysmal sometimes. LT can obviosly break one on any carry, and I'm pretty sure I'll be holding my breath for every one of his carries.So, I really don't think anyone is "dismissing" him - we've just seen Belichick take away a team's strength too many times. A lot of people here are comparing this game to what the Patriots did against Marshall Faulk - I think that's a little different because of two reasons:1. Different situation because the Rams were not a physical team. The Patriots basically just knocked the #### out of them. Everytime Faulk touched the ball or went to come out of the backfield to run a route, he got HIT. The strategy worked.BUT - LT and SD in general is a much more physical team. I don't think hitting them hard will have the same affect it does on teams like the Rams then and the contemporary Colts.2. Faulk didn't get the ball enough in that game anyway. I don't think Shotty will be making that mistake.

Jets and Gold, I just wanted to say It is nice to see some people actually go into a little more depth than Marty sucks in the playoffs they will lose and Brady is great they will win.People may be critical of Marty (Obviously, if Byner didn't fumble, Marty critics might be on him a little less), but he understands the running game extremely well. His teams have been able to run when the other team is trying to stop the run. Of course, BB understands how to take away your strength better than anyone and BB will make Rivers get the ball to the one on one situations his wideouts will get all day. Rivers will need to hit some of them (and early) to force BB to change. That being said, SD should not deviate from their strength and that is using LT as often as possible in both running and receiving and getting the ball to Gates. I like getting the ball to LT off of playaction because the linebackers for NE are not that fast. My take is SD needs to take shots down field to the WR's but still make LT the focal point and unless Gates is single teamed let NE double him and use your other weapons.On offense, I don't see NE being that successful because they do not have the receivers to take advantage of SD's weakness. This is why I see SD winning a lower scoring game like 23-14.

 

[Liquid Tension]

New England at San Diego

Link

Patriots on Offense

NE OFF SD DEF

DVOA 12.2% (7) -1.1% (14)

WEI DVOA 12.5% (7) 4.1% (17)

PASS 20.6% (6) -3.2% (11)

RUSH 3.8% (8) 1.5% (22)

RED ZONE 37.4% (2) 44.1% (32)

Chargers on Offense

SD OFF NE DEF

DVOA 24.4% (2) -8.4% (8)

WEI DVOA 23.4% (2) -13.4% (5)

PASS 26.3% (3) -9.9% (7)

RUSH 22.8% (1) -6.5% (10)

RED ZONE 63.0% (1) -35.3% (3)

Special Teams

NE SD

DVOA 2.6% (8) 4.4% (3)

NE kickoff 5.3 (11) 2.4 (10)

SD kickoff 16.6 (1) 8.4 (6)

NE punts -5.9 (25) -3.4 (27)

SD punts 4.9 (4) 10.8 (4)

FG/XP -5.5 (28) 7.8 (6)

During the game, please join the discussion in the Patriots-Chargers Game Discussion Thread.

Also of interest: A November Every Play Counts on the San Diego offense and this Any Given Sunday on New England’s worst game of the year, the loss to Miami in Week 14. Also, Too Deep Zone articles on running and passing from multiple-tight end sets, which both the Patriots and Chargers use frequently.

We’ll start this with the same announcement that has started every Patriots playoff preview I’ve written during the four years of Football Outsiders: I’m a Patriots fan. If you want to look for hints of bias in the preview, you are welcome to do so.

However, it is not my personal rooting interest that leads me to say that New England is just as good as San Diego. It’s the numbers. This is not like last year, when the Patriots weren’t even in the DVOA top ten and Patriots fans were slightly deluded, counting on Bill Belichick’s magic beans to hand-deliver them a third straight championship. The 2006 Patriots are one of the league’s elite teams again. This team is not as good as the 2004 team that won the Super Bowl, but it is as good as the 2003 team that won the Super Bowl, and as good as the current Chargers.

These are the two both balanced teams in the league. Both can pass the ball and stop the pass. Both can run and stop the run (except in one important situation, as you’ll see below). Both are good on special teams. The Patriots were a slightly better team over the second half of the season (higher weighted DVOA), but the Chargers were more consistent over the whole year (higher total DVOA and less variance). Home-field advantage and a week of rest makes San Diego the slight favorite, just as it makes New Orleans the slight favorite on Saturday night.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

If the Patriots beat the Chargers on Sunday, they can thank the New York Jets. The reason has to do with New York’s midseason upset, not New England’s first-round playoff victory.

Back in their Week 10 win, the Jets shut down the New England offense by blitzing Tom Brady relentlessly. In response, the Patriots altered their protection schemes, leaving more blockers and giving Brady more time to throw. That’s key against San Diego’s hellacious pass rush, particularly linebacker Shawne Merriman, who led the league with 17 sacks despite a four-game suspension. Left tackle Matt Light has not played as well this year as in seasons past, and the Patriots can’t let him try to take on Merriman alone.

The Patriots receivers have been derided all year as a bunch of no-names, but if Brady has time to throw, he can usually find one of them open. Occasionally the Patriots will go deep, but most of their passing game consists of slowly marching down the field in chunks of seven or eight yards, augmented by handoffs to Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney.

Watch for Brady to pick on cornerback Quentin Jammer; although he’s the best-known name in the San Diego secondary, both Drayton Florence and Antonio Cromartie played far better this season.

A look at the numbers during Merriman’s suspension shows just how important he is to the Chargers. With Merriman, San Diego was one of the top ten pass defenses. Without him, they were one of the ten worst. If we left out the four weeks without Merriman, San Diego’s defense would be 10th in DVOA for the season and 12th in weighted DVOA.

Both of these teams are strong on first down: the Patriots offense is fifth in DVOA on first down, the Chargers defense eighth. The problem for San Diego comes on third down, where the Patriots rank third and the Chargers 18th. The Patriots were above-average on third down no matter how many yards were left to go, but the main issue here is third-and-short. The Patriots converted 82% of short-yardage situations, leading the NFL, while the Chargers stopped just 22% of these runs, which ranked 31st. Even a stop on third down won’t necessarily stop a drive, since the Patriots converted 16 of 19 opportunities on fourth down.

These issues on third and fourth down are the sole reason why the Patriots’ running game ranks so much higher than the San Diego run defense. If we only consider first and second down, New England’s running game ranks 14th in DVOA and the San Diego run defense ranks 15th. On third and fourth down, New England’s running game ranks second and the San Diego run defense ranks 30th.

The Chargers also need to keep the Patriots out of the red zone, where the Patriots offense is second in DVOA and the Chargers defense ranks dead last. It’s more than just scoring touchdowns instead of field goals. Neither Brady nor the San Diego defense had any interceptions in the red zone.

WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL

Excited Patriots fans often dismiss the NFL’s other teams as pretenders to the throne. But even the most obnoxious moron testing the limits of hubris on the WEEI Whiner Line has to acknowledge the greatness of the San Diego Chargers offense, led by MVP LaDainian Tomlinson and the best tight end in the league, Antonio Gates.

Young quarterbacks tend to struggle when they face a Bill Belichick defense for the first time, but Philip Rivers isn’t your average young quarterback. In his first year as San Diego’s starter, Rivers was one of the top quarterbacks in the league as well as one of the most consistent. That being said, his bad games were pretty much all in recent weeks, as he completed just 8 of 23 passes against Kansas City in Week 15 and just 10 of 30 against Seattle in Week 16.

Belichick will surely attack Rivers with hard-to-decipher blitz schemes, but the most important battle along the line will be one of the most simple. Left tackle Marcus McNeill enjoyed an outstanding rookie year, but it will be hard for him to handle Richard Seymour without some assistance.

The San Diego running game does the most damage on runs to the side, since both Tomlinson and his backup Michael Turner are spectacular once they get into space. Tomlinson’s long touchdowns aside, the blocking up the middle is actually average. If the Patriots can somehow get the Chargers to run right up into the teeth of their all-first round defensive line, they can contain Tomlinson (contain here being a relative term).

The Chargers were number one in rushing yardage gained more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, but the Patriots don’t allow a lot of long touchdown runs. The Patriots were number one in preventing such yardage for three straight seasons, and they were leading the league in preventing double-digit runs for the fourth straight season until two weeks ago. Maurice Jones-Drew’s "not down by contact" 74-yard touchdown in Week 16 changed that statistic, but it’s unlikely to be repeated by Tomlinson.

(Actually, New England’s collapse in the "10+ Yards" stat is an interesting little story. Until Week 14, the Patriots had not given up a single run all year of more than 21 yards, but they gave up four such runs in the final four games. The first was 44 yards by Sammy Morris on the last non-kneel play of Miami’s Week 14 shutout. Then came Jones-Drew. Add on a couple of long runs by Travis Henry in the final game of the year, and the Patriots dropped from first to 20th in this stat in two weeks. The first one was meaningless, the second one a fluke. It’s those Henry runs that should worry defensive coordinator Dean Pees.)

The biggest area where Tomlinson can hurt New England is catching passes out of the backfield. That’s a problem for the Patriots defense and an area where Tomlinson excels.

Like the Chargers, the Patriots have a strong starting cornerback, Asante Samuel, and a weak starting cornerback, Chad Scott. The Patriots often clamp down on the opposition’s top receiver, only to allow a huge game to the number two option. For the Chargers, that could mean a big day for big second-year receiver Vincent Jackson. The idea of Scott or the diminutive Ellis Hobbs trying to cover Jackson or Antonio Gates is enough to make a famous fellow Patriots fan throw up in his own mouth while simultaneously setting himself on fire.

One more important note: both of these teams dial it up at the end of games. San Diego’s offensive DVOA more than doubles in the fourth quarter — while the Patriots’ defensive DVOA more than triples.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Patriots had the best kickoff returns in the league, and also excelled on punt returns, but San Diego was one of the top teams for both kickoffs and punts, making this a battle of strengths. Each team’s main weakness on special teams matches up as well: the Patriots ranked 25th on punts, the Chargers 27th on punt returns. Nate Kaeding was a better field-goal kicker than Stephen Gostkowski this year, but the difference is a bit exaggerated because of Gostkowski’s early struggles. In the first four weeks of the season, was the worst field-goal kicker in the league who didn’t also punt. Since Week 5, including last week’s wild card game, Gostkowski has been worth 2.3 points more than an average field-goal kicker in the same conditions.

OUTLOOK

If you can’t enjoy a game between two teams with this much talent, you probably should avoid watching football for the rest of your life.

Very I would only like to see your won prediction at the end. One point i will always make is people seem to always look at past performances and predict the same. NE is clutch therefore they will be clutch. History ha shown nothing other than you are clutch until you are not clutch. I do agree NE is better this tear than last year, but not much better. I think not having excellent linebackers will hurt them.

 

[Gr00vus]

Sing it loud, sing it proud and get your Bolts on!!!

Belichick was once defensive coordinator for the New York Giants and had the pleasure of playing the Chargers back when Fouts torched opposing defenses.

In a story published in 1989, he said:

“The last time we came out here (1980), it was 44-7 and they beat the hell out of us. They played that 'San Diego Super Charger' song. . . . I still hear that thing in my sleep.”

I hope he hears it all ####### day long tomorrow! And I think he will, because I've just realized Phil Rivers is the real deal, and any hopes the Pats have involve him screwing up - that aint happening folks.

Heck, let's play two!

 

[BoltzNBrew]

Brady Last 4 vs AFC West

DEN L 7-17 '06

@ DEN L 13-27 '05 Divisional

@ DEN L 20-28 '05

SDG L 17-41 '05

1-2 vs SDG

SDG L 17-41 '05

@ SDG L 14-21 '02

SDG W 29-26 '01

 

[BGP]

Brady Last 4 vs AFC WestDEN L 7-17 '06@ DEN L 13-27 '05 Divisional@ DEN L 20-28 '05SDG L 17-41 '051-2 vs SDGSDG L 17-41 '05@ SDG L 14-21 '02SDG W 29-26 '01

That is a freaking awesome avatar.

 

[jonessed]

Brady Last 4 vs AFC WestDEN L 7-17 '06@ DEN L 13-27 '05 Divisional@ DEN L 20-28 '05SDG L 17-41 '051-2 vs SDGSDG L 17-41 '05@ SDG L 14-21 '02SDG W 29-26 '01

That is a freaking awesome avatar.

I wish I saw it on another board because then I would steal it

 

[dickey moe]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJyUhsY_Ol0...ted&search=

 

[PatsWillWin]

Brady Last 4 vs AFC WestDEN L 7-17 '06@ DEN L 13-27 '05 Divisional@ DEN L 20-28 '05SDG L 17-41 '051-2 vs SDGSDG L 17-41 '05@ SDG L 14-21 '02SDG W 29-26 '01

Please update.TIA.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Luckiest ####### team on the face of the planet

 

[jurb26]

Luckiest ####### team on the face of the planet

Well, we didn't see this coming....

 

[TD Ryan]

wow.

that's all I have to say about that.

freakin' unbelievable the way those Pats do it.

a "professional" football team is damn right.

 

[f360spyder]

I voted with my heart, not my head.

My head can't really make a decision as I could see it going either way for a ton of reasons.So I went with my heart too and took the Chargers.I think this may be the best game of this postseason, and I'd like whoever wins this one to win it all, as they seem like the two most complete teams in the NFL (no offense intended to the Ravens, Bears or Saints).

Agree with both of you.Gonna go with a clutch kick by Kaeding to win it for the Bolts.

###########################################!!!

 

[TD Ryan]

Luckiest ####### team on the face of the planet

I knew you'd show up, that's why I posted this for you a few days ago.

do the Chargers fans really believe that if they kick and scream, "we're the #1 seed! We're gonna' Win. No way the Patriots will win" loud enough, then it will happen?

That's what seems to be going on here. Charger fans are digging up every stat and tidbit that suggests that NE can't compete with the #1 seed on Sunday afternoon... some legit stats and some obscure ones too.

Look, as a Pats fan, I'm not chest thumping and claiming that NE WILL win on Sunday. They have their hands full and they deserve to be the underdog in this matchup.

What I am saying is that I'm optimistic. Optimistic about Sunday's chances for NE; optimistic about NE's future whether they win or lose this game.

I'm optimistic about Sunday's game because...

- I've seen this team (i.e. Brady/Belichick) overcome more difficult obstacles with less man power/talent

- I've seen the defensive coordinator Belichick scheme to stop the seemingly unstoppable offenses of the late 80's and 90's

- because according to many pundits, NE had (again) suffered too many losses to compete at a high level (McGinnest, Vinatieri, Branch) and MIA was supposed to be the new powerhouse

This week is no differerent than those past events/games. How many times must I see the same scenario played out before I feel comfortable in the outcome? 1, 2, 5 times? Because it's happened more than 5.

And I'm optimistic about the future for NE because they are cap-healthy and have (2) more #1 draft picks next year.

This Pats fan has believed all year that they'd win the AFC East and make the playoffs.

However, I never expected them to be legit SuperBowl contender; I don't think many reasonable Pats fans expected them to be this year. And once again, they've risen to the occasion no matter how unexpected it was. How can I possibly doubt this team? How can I doubt their resiliency when they so often achieve above and beyond what even their most homer-blind fans would expect?

I have all the respect in the world for the Chargers and should NE lose to them on Sunday, I will cheer LT, Marty, Rivers, etc all the way to the SuperBowl.

But right now, I would not be surprised to see Moday to roll around with (some) Charger fans having that all too familiar, perplexed look on their faces and muttering things like:

"but we were the better team!?"

"but we were more talented!?"

and then you join the ranks of fallen Patriots adversaries who are angry about it; angry that there wasn't some highlight reel play that lead to your demise; angry that it wasn't 350 passing yards that torched you; angry that there wasn't even a 100 yard rusher or receiver who beat you. The idea that a team played it close to the vest, managed the clock, and just outlasted you in a chess match won't sit well.

And if you personally are NOT one of these fans, I apologize ahead of time. As with every team, there are many brands of fans. I just know from experience that this particular flavor of fan has a way of showing himself in a fairly loud and abrasive way. I guess it's the only way for him to deal with the incredible frustration a well planned and executed Belichick game plan can cause.

and that last retort from that frustrated fan will be something along the lines of:

"they didn't beat us, we beat ourselves"

and you know, you may be right. But that's how they do it. That's how they've been doing it all along. And if you fall victim to it, shame on you for not recognizing and adjusting to it.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Luckiest ####### team on the face of the planet

I knew you'd show up, that's why I posted this for you a few days ago.

do the Chargers fans really believe that if they kick and scream, "we're the #1 seed! We're gonna' Win. No way the Patriots will win" loud enough, then it will happen?

That's what seems to be going on here. Charger fans are digging up every stat and tidbit that suggests that NE can't compete with the #1 seed on Sunday afternoon... some legit stats and some obscure ones too.

Look, as a Pats fan, I'm not chest thumping and claiming that NE WILL win on Sunday. They have their hands full and they deserve to be the underdog in this matchup.

What I am saying is that I'm optimistic. Optimistic about Sunday's chances for NE; optimistic about NE's future whether they win or lose this game.

I'm optimistic about Sunday's game because...

- I've seen this team (i.e. Brady/Belichick) overcome more difficult obstacles with less man power/talent

- I've seen the defensive coordinator Belichick scheme to stop the seemingly unstoppable offenses of the late 80's and 90's

- because according to many pundits, NE had (again) suffered too many losses to compete at a high level (McGinnest, Vinatieri, Branch) and MIA was supposed to be the new powerhouse

This week is no differerent than those past events/games. How many times must I see the same scenario played out before I feel comfortable in the outcome? 1, 2, 5 times? Because it's happened more than 5.

And I'm optimistic about the future for NE because they are cap-healthy and have (2) more #1 draft picks next year.

This Pats fan has believed all year that they'd win the AFC East and make the playoffs.

However, I never expected them to be legit SuperBowl contender; I don't think many reasonable Pats fans expected them to be this year. And once again, they've risen to the occasion no matter how unexpected it was. How can I possibly doubt this team? How can I doubt their resiliency when they so often achieve above and beyond what even their most homer-blind fans would expect?

I have all the respect in the world for the Chargers and should NE lose to them on Sunday, I will cheer LT, Marty, Rivers, etc all the way to the SuperBowl.

But right now, I would not be surprised to see Moday to roll around with (some) Charger fans having that all too familiar, perplexed look on their faces and muttering things like:

"but we were the better team!?"

"but we were more talented!?"

and then you join the ranks of fallen Patriots adversaries who are angry about it; angry that there wasn't some highlight reel play that lead to your demise; angry that it wasn't 350 passing yards that torched you; angry that there wasn't even a 100 yard rusher or receiver who beat you. The idea that a team played it close to the vest, managed the clock, and just outlasted you in a chess match won't sit well.

And if you personally are NOT one of these fans, I apologize ahead of time. As with every team, there are many brands of fans. I just know from experience that this particular flavor of fan has a way of showing himself in a fairly loud and abrasive way. I guess it's the only way for him to deal with the incredible frustration a well planned and executed Belichick game plan can cause.

and that last retort from that frustrated fan will be something along the lines of:

"they didn't beat us, we beat ourselves"

and you know, you may be right. But that's how they do it. That's how they've been doing it all along. And if you fall victim to it, shame on you for not recognizing and adjusting to it.

If you look back I was the only charger fan not marking it up as a win. Say what you want, they get every break (the pats), every one, and they do a great job making those breaks.

 

[acme]

gotta go with the Pats on this one

Belichek and Brady... just can't go against em

 

[Despyzer]

Sure they were lucky, but as I said about the Colts in the gamethread yesterday, good teams make thier own luck.

 

[TD Ryan]

If you look back I was the only charger fan not marking it up as a win. Say what you want, they get every break (the pats), every one, and they do a great job making those breaks.

I give you credit for being here after a tough loss.SD's a fantastic football team.You only feel like NE got all the breaks because your team lost.The Gates fumble was overturned by replay (the right call IMO, but still went in your favor)The ref's let them play for the most part. They didn't interfere with this game at all.I can't call holding SD to 1 sack a "break"I can't call Troy Brown making a strip a "break"I can't call Rosie Colvin making a great INT a "break"certainly I felt like SD was bigger, stronger, and faster at some points during that game, but it's NE ability to play under duress, to hold the fort even when nothing's going right and your pinned agains the endzone time and time again.Any team other than NE and that game could have been 35 -3 at the half. But they are a "professional" football team, they don't get rattled, and they know that as time is running out, they will maintain their compusure when others will often choke.

 

[Despyzer]

gotta go with the Pats on this oneBelichek and Brady... just can't go against em

Good prediction.

 

[Despyzer]

I can't call holding SD to 1 sack a "break"I can't call Troy Brown making a strip a "break"I can't call Rosie Colvin making a great INT a "break"

Good points. Nobody can say they didn't make those things happen.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

If you look back I was the only charger fan not marking it up as a win. Say what you want, they get every break (the pats), every one, and they do a great job making those breaks.

I can't call Troy Brown making a strip a "break".

McCree being an idiot and not just dropping it or falling to the ground = huge break, I knew right then the game was over.

 

[Gr00vus]

Congrats to the Pats. They are the better team - especially in the ways that count. I give them all the credit, they made the plays.

I'm going to go get very bitterly, depressedly drunk now. You'd think as a Charger fan I'd be used to this by now, but somehow it still really hurts. Bad. I'll see you guys on Thursday or so.

Oh yeah - bye bye Marty. How you go one and out with the best team in Charger history is beyond me. I hate you. :middlefinger:

 

[PatsWillWin]

Luckiest ####### team on the face of the planet

Sounds familiar.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Congrats to the Pats. They are the better team - especially in the ways that count. I give them all the credit, they made the plays. I'm going to go get very bitterly, depressedly drunk now. You'd think as a Charger fan I'd be used to this by now, but somehow it still really hurts. Bad. I'll see you guys on Thursday or sh yeah - bye bye Marty. How you go one and out with the best team in Charger history is beyond me. I hate you. :middlefinger:

Way to show up, Groovus and Bicycle. Now, where are TommyGunz and Gold Plated Nails?And I agree, if I were a Chargers fan, I'd be furious with Schottenheimer. Once again, he cost his team the game. Challenging the Troy Brown strip/Caldwell fumble recovery when it was clear as day it was NE ball, was one of the dumbest moves I have ever seen a head coach make. You still have that timeout and maybe you can get one more play off, moving Kaeding a little closer.

 

[Tau837]

Congrats to the Pats. They are the better team - especially in the ways that count. I give them all the credit, they made the plays. I'm going to go get very bitterly, depressedly drunk now. You'd think as a Charger fan I'd be used to this by now, but somehow it still really hurts. Bad. I'll see you guys on Thursday or sh yeah - bye bye Marty. How you go one and out with the best team in Charger history is beyond me. I hate you. :middlefinger:

Way to show up, Groovus and Bicycle. Now, where are TommyGunz and Gold Plated Nails?And I agree, if I were a Chargers fan, I'd be furious with Schottenheimer. Once again, he cost his team the game. Challenging the Troy Brown strip/Caldwell fumble recovery when it was clear as day it was NE ball, was one of the dumbest moves I have ever seen a head coach make. You still have that timeout and maybe you can get one more play off, moving Kaeding a little closer.

Actually, if they still had the timeout, they would have taken it after the Pats third down play, before the go ahead FG. That would save saved 40 seconds or so, enough for 3-4 more plays if needed.