Niles Standish
Footballguy
Why? The offense isn't the reason Seattle wins. They are the 11th best offense in the NFL by points.
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Who wins the NFL MVP (2014)? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bostonfred
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Updated only 3 days later . . .
Rodgers 1-4
Watt 9-2
Brady 9-1
Romo 12-1
Murray 25-1
Peyton 40-1
Luck 50-1
Big Ben 66-1
Bell 66-1
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Are you serious? Or is this a fishing trip?Freelove said:Why would you not? They're about to (presumably) lose a (projected) 1750/17 RB, and replace him with a preseason warrior of some sort, and to replace the lost offensive output, they'll have to do it while additionally shouldering the enormous salary burden Wilson is about to become. I think you'd have a be a lunatic or a willfully blind homer to expect anything short of significant regression.Just Win Baby said:cjv123 said:
Wdcrob, if Lynch is gone next year, are you expecting a significant regression in the Seahawks offense? It seems that you must answer yes to justify your post.
I still think Wilson deserves the team MVP nod over Lynch for the year, just because he's such a great game manager in a system, and on a team, that demands exactly that. But I don't think he can carry a team. Every time the team has actually needed an above-average offensive showing to stay in a game, they've fallen short. Wilson has no deep arm, and when they fall behind, they're toast, since they lack the weapons (including QB) to score aggressively unless the defense is providing the offense.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Why? It's MVP for the whole season, not just December. No, Peyton wouldn't be in my top 3 right now for MVP this year, or even top 5 maybe, but considering he still leads the league in TD passes, has a top YPA, and still has a top QBR and passer rating (despite the 15 INTs), I don't think it's absurd for anyone to think he's still in the conversation.
Bruce Leroy
Footballguy
Unless Rodgers falls flat on his face this Sunday & doesn't play, He's a lock. He still might win if he does nothing on Sunday.
1-4 odds? Bet $4,000,000.00 to win $1,000,000.00..... Not bad.
1-4 odds? Bet $4,000,000.00 to win $1,000,000.00..... Not bad.
Dizzy
Footballguy
dhockster
Footballguy
He can if he comes back and throws for a TD and runs for a TD.Dizzy said:
Oh, and throwing for a TD while collapsing with an injury in the first half was a nice touch.
Rodgers wins MVP. I still thing Watt should, but DE's just don't affect the game as much as QB's do. Watt has a huge disadvantage based on his position.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Agreed. That was pretty special, and I think Rogers will win it.
We all know that MVP is a QB-first award... but for me, it's a tossup between Murray and Le'Veon Bell.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I really want Watt to get it but its so rare for the MVP to not be in the playoffs.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
MVP = Rodgers
MOP = Watt
MOP = Watt
dhockster
Footballguy
Watt's QB's this Year:
Fitzpatrick: Started 12 games, finished 11. Career record of 27-49 coming into this season. Definitely in the bottom Quartile of starting QB's
Mallett: Started and finished 2 games. Played second game with injury that knocked him out for the season. First 2 starts of his career.
Savage: Finished one game for Fitzpatrick. Rookie 4th round pick. First game.
Keenum: Started and finished 2 games. Was on Rams Practice Squad. 0-8 last season. Undrafted FA.
That is one helluva extenuating circumstance for missing the playoffs. If Fitzpatrick had not gotten hurt in the 2nd Indy game, the Texans probably win that game and win the division over Indy.
Fishing or just completely ignoring the facts.Are you serious? Or is this a fishing trip?Why would you not? They're about to (presumably) lose a (projected) 1750/17 RB, and replace him with a preseason warrior of some sort, and to replace the lost offensive output, they'll have to do it while additionally shouldering the enormous salary burden Wilson is about to become. I think you'd have a be a lunatic or a willfully blind homer to expect anything short of significant regression.I still think Wilson deserves the team MVP nod over Lynch for the year, just because he's such a great game manager in a system, and on a team, that demands exactly that. But I don't think he can carry a team. Every time the team has actually needed an above-average offensive showing to stay in a game, they've fallen short. Wilson has no deep arm, and when they fall behind, they're toast, since they lack the weapons (including QB) to score aggressively unless the defense is providing the offense.
Wilson has more game winning drives than Luck.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
This was all brilliant. When he re-emerged it was like a WCW moment.Dizzy said:
Now, if you are really MVP, you can win 2 measly games to get back to the big one.
I personally like Wilson a lot as a QB (he has not been given free reign and they are run 1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th Pass 6th) but I HATE the game winning drive stat and always will. The reason I hate it is it can be artificially increased by BAD play earlier in the game.Fishing or just completely ignoring the facts.Are you serious? Or is this a fishing trip?Why would you not? They're about to (presumably) lose a (projected) 1750/17 RB, and replace him with a preseason warrior of some sort, and to replace the lost offensive output, they'll have to do it while additionally shouldering the enormous salary burden Wilson is about to become. I think you'd have a be a lunatic or a willfully blind homer to expect anything short of significant regression.I still think Wilson deserves the team MVP nod over Lynch for the year, just because he's such a great game manager in a system, and on a team, that demands exactly that. But I don't think he can carry a team. Every time the team has actually needed an above-average offensive showing to stay in a game, they've fallen short. Wilson has no deep arm, and when they fall behind, they're toast, since they lack the weapons (including QB) to score aggressively unless the defense is providing the offense.
Wilson has more game winning drives than Luck.
Example:
Luck throws 2 INTs and win the game on the last drive down by 3
Rodgers throws 0 INTs and wins the game by 10 without a need for the last drive (they just run out the clock)
flip side
Luck throws 2 INTs and loses the game by 17 points
Rodgers throws 0 INTs but can't complete 1 or 2 4th quarter drives and loses by 3 points
Which of the above is more impressive? The QB who "comes-back" in the 4th quarter or the QB who at least gave his team a chance to win when a lesser QB would have put the game out of reach of winning?
Heatman
Footballguy
Run It Up
Footballguy
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Rodgers has it locked up after this past week's win.
Seriously! With Watt they got the #1 pick last year. Because they got a little better coaching and QB play, they were knocking in the door of the playoffs. A poster above said it best, Watt is the MOP, but he is definitely not the MVP. Probably Rodgers this year...
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Heatman
Footballguy
Lol Ok so maybe that statement was a bit ridiculous but I do think he is as valuable to his team as any player in the league.Seriously! With Watt they got the #1 pick last year. Because they got a little better coaching and QB play, they were knocking in the door of the playoffs. A poster above said it best, Watt is the MOP, but he is definitely not the MVP. Probably Rodgers this year...
Game winning drives aren't the same as plus offensive output.I personally like Wilson a lot as a QB (he has not been given free reign and they are run 1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th Pass 6th) but I HATE the game winning drive stat and always will. The reason I hate it is it can be artificially increased by BAD play earlier in the game.Fishing or just completely ignoring the facts.Are you serious? Or is this a fishing trip?Why would you not? They're about to (presumably) lose a (projected) 1750/17 RB, and replace him with a preseason warrior of some sort, and to replace the lost offensive output, they'll have to do it while additionally shouldering the enormous salary burden Wilson is about to become. I think you'd have a be a lunatic or a willfully blind homer to expect anything short of significant regression.I still think Wilson deserves the team MVP nod over Lynch for the year, just because he's such a great game manager in a system, and on a team, that demands exactly that. But I don't think he can carry a team. Every time the team has actually needed an above-average offensive showing to stay in a game, they've fallen short. Wilson has no deep arm, and when they fall behind, they're toast, since they lack the weapons (including QB) to score aggressively unless the defense is providing the offense.
Wilson has more game winning drives than Luck.
Example:
Luck throws 2 INTs and win the game on the last drive down by 3
Rodgers throws 0 INTs and wins the game by 10 without a need for the last drive (they just run out the clock)
flip side
Luck throws 2 INTs and loses the game by 17 points
Rodgers throws 0 INTs but can't complete 1 or 2 4th quarter drives and loses by 3 points
Which of the above is more impressive? The QB who "comes-back" in the 4th quarter or the QB who at least gave his team a chance to win when a lesser QB would have put the game out of reach of winning?
Every...not hyperbole...EVERY time the Seahawks have been put in a position where the offense has had to do better than a league average amount of points, the offense has failed them, and they have lost. They only win when carried by the defense and the running game. They are 0-for-the-season when that doesn't happen. That still gives a good game manager QB plenty of opportunities to manage a game successfully, and (as the poster just above pointed out) actually gives a QB MORE opportunities to inflate that "game winning drive" stat.
But Russ isn't a QB, and SEA isn't a passing offense, that can win games on their own. Both are ideally suited to what they have to do, however. And that's good enough for team success.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Hilarious....this is always the worst reasoning.
Any team with a top QB wouldn't likely make the playoffs without their guy.
The Packers, Broncos....he lost the MVP when he went to Lambeau and was beat by the guy who will win it. The guy with better numbers than him who beat him head to head.
Run It Up
Footballguy
While I agree Rodgers is the MVP this season, that head to head lose means almost nothing to this discussion.
Rodgers has played well all year, Brady hasn't. The Pats beat pretty much every AFC contender this year and the Lions. Rodgers has been the better passer, whether or not hes been the better QB is up for debate but I don't think the MVP discussion is, its never been about anything other than production.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Rodgers had some off games too (Buffalo...)
I wasn't really saying it was "head to head" that mattered. It was on a huge stage though where Brady goes into Lambeau against a good team and played poorly while Rodgers shined that day.
Run It Up
Footballguy
I disagree with both of those statements as well. The Packers game was the least important of the games the Pats played in that 6 game stretch of tough opponents, they scored like 40 points against cincy, denver, detroit and indy.
Also that game was very close, final score was 26-21 Packers and came down to a few bad plays from Brady and the Oline admittedly but a few missed calls and that game goes the other way.
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sho nuff
Footballguy
Game ended up close...but watching it early Brady was off and Rodgers looked good. They did settle for FGs which made it closer...but to not think that was a huge game is laughable. It was a national audience for the first meeting between two star QBs.
Im not saying they didn't play other big games...but NE vs. Det is hardly close to being considered as back nationally as NE vs. GB was.
Missed calls? Come on now...
Im not saying they didn't play other big games...but NE vs. Det is hardly close to being considered as back nationally as NE vs. GB was.
Missed calls? Come on now...
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snogger
Footballguy
As mentioned previously this has become a passing league and thus the award is essential qbMVP.
Just look at how many QB's are "In the running".
Romo, Manning, Brady, Rodgers.. I've seen some throw in Ben Roethlisberger and Russel Wilson.
Meanwhile.. How many Defensive Players do you hear mentioned as the MVP?
I fully expect Rodgers to win it. But feel due to how weighted the game is towards the QB that Watt, with the year he had, should win it.
Just look at how many QB's are "In the running".
Romo, Manning, Brady, Rodgers.. I've seen some throw in Ben Roethlisberger and Russel Wilson.
Meanwhile.. How many Defensive Players do you hear mentioned as the MVP?
I fully expect Rodgers to win it. But feel due to how weighted the game is towards the QB that Watt, with the year he had, should win it.
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Jeremy
Footballguy
Peter King put together his own panel of 26 "voters". It was a 2 horse race with Rodgers getting 15.5 first place votes to Watt's 8.5. Murray got 1 and somehow Luck got 1. Brady didn't get any, but he did finish 3rd in points according to King's scoring system. None of these guys have an actual vote, so take it for what's it's worth.
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/30/nfl-awards-mvp-rookie-coach/
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/30/nfl-awards-mvp-rookie-coach/
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The NFL balloting only allows voters to vote for one player, so Brady would finish with 0 votes if this panel were the actual group of voters (instead of in third place).
Historically, winning actual football games is tantamount to winning the MVP award. If you don't make the playoffs, you are almost always DOA. Apparently the logic is, how could you be the most valuable player in the league if your team didn't reach the post season.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
I think the list is correct and what will happen.
The award I personally disagree with is OROY. It's all because of position bias. OBJ had a hell of a year and is a future star. However...Z. Martin for the Cowboys played every snap this year and was the BEST OG in all of Football as a rookie. Beckham can't say the same.
Yenrub
Footballguy
Well OBJ doesn't play OG
I agree with the list but could see the kid in St. Louis getting DROY
I don't understand those voting for Romo over Murray though
Jeremy
Footballguy
That Watt is pulling a 3rd of the vote despite playing on a 9-7 non playoff team, AND being a defensive player (or non-QB) is really amazing. I didn't see a lot of his games. It must really have been the best season a defensive player has ever had. Especially given that Rodgers had a season that was historically great as well (38 TDs, 5 Ints).
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Bankerguy
Footballguy
OBJ is not the best player at his position like Martin.Well OBJ doesn't play OG
I agree with the list but could see the kid in St. Louis getting DROY
I don't understand those voting for Romo over Murray though
Romo over Murray is easy.
How many games do the Cowboys win without Romo, I say 4-5.
How many games do the Cowboys win without Murray I say 9.
Rodgers
Watt
Romo
Brady
Murray
OBJ played 12 games. He lead the league in yards per game and tied with Dez for first in TD's per game. Plus he made possible the greatest catch of all time. So there is a good argument he was the best WR in all of football.
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dhockster
Footballguy
He literally did just about everything this year:
1 blocked FG
1 Safety
2 Defensive TD's
3 receiving TD's (2 of which were great receptions)
4 forced fumbles (2nd in the league)
5 recovered fumbles (1st in the league)
78 total tackles (1st for Defensive lineman)
20.5 sacks (2nd in the league)
30 hurries (1st in the league)
10 passes defensed
The last stat tied for 42nd in the league. Think about that. There are 4 starting DB's on the team who have far more opportunities to defend passes than Watt does. That is 128 players. Watt, in one sense, outperformed 2/3's of the defensive backs in defending passes.
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MaxThreshold
Footballguy
And Rodgers still takes it in a landslide. How can you be an mvp if you don't even make the post season?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Murray was just such a stud... He obviously won't win, but man what a beastly season. I vote for him.
Jeremy
Footballguy
This seems to be the debate every year. How literally do you interpret the "most valuable" part of MVP? If you're voting for Watt, you're taking a very loose interpretation, because for all the things listed above for Watt, he didn't impact wins and losses like Rodgers did. As a DE, he can't. Do you base it on by how much a player dominates his position relative to his peers? If you had a punter that could kick it 80 yards every time, would he be the MVP? If that's the criteria, then I guess Watt is the MVP.
Also, I feel like people have taken Rodgers amazing season a bit for granted. 38 TDs vs 5 Ints is pretty darn special, even by his lofty standards.
Yeah, I really do wish they'd officially change the title of the thing away from "valuable," just to free up the thinking of those who feel bound to a more literal interpretation. But if I were voting, I'd interpret it that way, too. Just because we happen to live in a world where words have meanings.
Watt would have gotten my vote for Player of the Year, Most Outstanding Player, Best Performance in the Role of Professional Football Player, or anything else that didn't force one to consider how many winshares he was really worth. But Rodgers would have gotten my MVP nod.
If people are really up in arms about this, I think we could start a movement to retroactively strip Mark Moseley of his MVP and award it to Watt. In 100 years, no one would blink at the fact he won an MVP seven years before he was born, and if they did, they'd still probably think he had to be more deserving than a kicker.
Watt would have gotten my vote for Player of the Year, Most Outstanding Player, Best Performance in the Role of Professional Football Player, or anything else that didn't force one to consider how many winshares he was really worth. But Rodgers would have gotten my MVP nod.
If people are really up in arms about this, I think we could start a movement to retroactively strip Mark Moseley of his MVP and award it to Watt. In 100 years, no one would blink at the fact he won an MVP seven years before he was born, and if they did, they'd still probably think he had to be more deserving than a kicker.
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dhockster
Footballguy
Because your team started a QB who was 27-49 coming into this season 12 times, started a QB who was 0-8 coming into this season twice, and started a QB who had zero NFL starts twice. Oh, and the majority of one of their games was played by a rookie who was seeing his first NFL action. Because the rest of the defense has average talent across the board. Because you are in the first season of a rookie NFL coach with new systems on offense and on defense. Because, despite all of this, you led your team to a 9-7 record by doing just about everything imaginable on defense.
If Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't get hurt in the Indy game, Houston probably wins and makes the playoffs. If Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer don't get hurt, the Browns don't start a 3rd string QB the last week of the season and possibly win and the Texans make the playoffs. How are those in anyway controlled by JJ Watt? The Texans would not even be in the position to be in the playoffs without Watt this year. This team has Watt, Arian Foster, DeAndre Hopkins, and not much else. Watt affected the outcomes of his team's games about as much as any Defensive End could. His was one of the greatest defensive season ever. He just happened do to on a team that was in the first year of rebuilding. Instead of 4-12, they finished 9-7. That is why he deserves the MVP.
And I agree with you. Aaron Rodgers will win MVP because he was MVQB.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Asked this in the Watt thread. Think he made a roughly 5 game difference in the Texans record. 3 of those games can't really even be debated. Packers were 12-4 with a pretty good defense, good running game and two top wide receivers. What is the Packers record with a average/ slightly above average QB, say a Tannehill or Flacco?
MaxThreshold
Footballguy
Lotta' "ifs" and "probablys" in this post. I don't disagree that Watt had a fantastic season, Rodgers was just better.
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dhockster
Footballguy
I agree that Rodgers had a great season and I am not trying to take anything away from him. The passing statistics have just gotten ridiculous with the defense not able to do anything to disrupt the receivers. When you extrapolate what Nick Foles did last year (27 TD's, 2 ints in 11 games) over the full season, he would have had 39 TD's and 3 interceptions. 38 and 5 isn't as mind boggling as it used to be.
Run It Up
Footballguy
The Packers were handed a touchdown from a turnover that was overturned. They virtually shut down Cobb and Nelson ignoring the times they got away with interference that resulted in their biggest gains.
Yeah a couple missed/bad calls.
dhockster
Footballguy
Rodgers was not better; he just plays a position that has an impact on roughly 60% of the offensive plays. His position is more valuable than Watt's position.
Watt was head and shoulders above every other defensive player this year. Rodgers was slightly better than Romo, Brady, and Roethlisberger.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It has been come clear, to me anyway, that "value" has nothing to do with the MVP award. As soon as people can come to grips with that, then they can move on and be forced to accept what they do for MVP balloting, which is typically the best or most productive offensive player from one of the top couple of teams with the most wins (which usually means a QB). The only exception being if someone has a record breaking year on a lower tiered playoff team (in which case it would be a QB or RB). Besides that, realistically no one else is going to be MVP.
