Who Would Be Willing To 'Reach' For ? (1 Viewer)

[FF Ninja]

If you think Tsmith is the number 1 wr, taking him in the 4th is VALUE and in no way are you compromising your draft.

Obviously, but if you could've had him in the 5th or 6th then he's not as much value as he could've been. If we are in separate universes and we each do one draft, mine will be better than yours because I'll have the same team except with Harvin and you'll have Bowe. We both end up with Smith, but my 4th round pick is better than your 5th.

 

[silentcoach]

If you think Tsmith is the number 1 wr, taking him in the 4th is VALUE and in no way are you compromising your draft.

Obviously, but if you could've had him in the 5th or 6th then he's not as much value as he could've been. If we are in separate universes and we each do one draft, mine will be better than yours because I'll have the same team except with Harvin and you'll have Bowe. We both end up with Smith, but my 4th round pick is better than your 5th.

The problem is maybe you don't get TSmith bc you decided to wait and someone decided to "reach."

 

[FF Ninja]

I see what you are saying. However, I don't think maximizing adps at every slot will lead to the best team, imo. This will just lead to the "best value team." I guess this is where we disagree.

Not true at all. I'm talking about getting the guys you want, just overpaying for them by as little as possible. What you are saying is the auction equivalent of bidding $50 for Smith when the next highest bid was $35.

 

[silentcoach]

I see what you are saying. However, I don't think maximizing adps at every slot will lead to the best team, imo. This will just lead to the "best value team." I guess this is where we disagree.

Not true at all. I'm talking about getting the guys you want, just overpaying for them by as little as possible. What you are saying is the auction equivalent of bidding $50 for Smith when the next highest bid was $35.

Ok ok, I'll end it with this one. First, auction is different because you can SEE how other people value a player. I could see what other people are bidding, so I dont' have to bid 50 as you suggest--I would just ensure to pay $1 more dollar than the next person. You do not have this luxury in a snake draft. If you think smith is top 2 rd player, and you don't know if you can land him in rd 5-6-7, then I see no problem in taking him as a rd 4 player.**Again, using TSmith as an example-- I have no horse in this race.

 

[cobalt_27]

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.Again, to each his own.

+1. You are only waiting b/c of the perception that he should go lower. If you have a player rated higher then take him where you THINK he should go if it ensures you will get him. You don't know how other players in your league are thinking.ex: To some, T.Smith's adp is low and think his ADP should be higher. I don't really see a big deal if someone "reaches" if they really think T.Smith should be higher (some think top 12). Taking T.Smith in rd 4 is not a "reach" if you think he is top 12 AND it hurts your opponent who thought he could pass on wr early and land t.smith in rd 6 or 7. Sure, we all like to maximize value compared to adp, but taking a top 12 wr in the fourth can also be value in itself. Screw perception-- these are the peope who are "shocked" when NFL teams draft players earlier than all the ESPN announcers thought--GASP!!!!We are there to draft our own teams, not based on some prexisting ADP list.

Just to be clear, it's not about perception. It's about maximizing value. Regardless of how you value T.Smith. You want him on your team, so would you rather have Harvin and T.Smith or T.Smith and Bowe? That's the difference between drafting him in the 4th and the 5th.And yes, taking T.Smith in the 4th is still a "reach" if you could've gotten him in the 6th even if he finishes WR1. Again, reaching is all about value. You want to get your guys but you want to reach as little as possible. Another way to view it, reaching for Smith in the 4th is the chicken move. You are compromising the rest of your draft because you had an itchy trigger finger and panicked and drafted him well before anyone else would have.

Imagine a scenario where it's 2008, and you KNOW Aaron Rodgers is going to blow up this year. He's about 120 on the ADP list (11th or 12th round). Would it really have killed you ("compromise the rest of your draft") to take him in the 9th or 10th round? No. You probably would have won your league. You don't have a monopoly on good knowledge/research. Guys have inklings, just like you do. So, you overpay at times to hedge your bets and make sure you get the next greatest thing before someone else has the stones to take him early. While you might want to be judicious in this approach, obviously, you're doing yourself a disservice to your hobby by playing only tight to the vest and following only what the collective groupthink tells you to do. Bottom line: if you do your homework, get your guys. Even if it means overpaying. I value my opinions on guys a lot more than "value" in a vacuum.

 

[OrangeCurtain]

Julio Jones, Doug Martin

This plus David Wilson. I think there's a chance that Wilson and Martin outperform Richardson this year. Outright, not relative to ADP. Someone said at our draft, and I agree, "First time Bradshaw gets hurt, he will not start again the rest of the year."

 

[drater]

If the guy isn't going to make it back to you (or the data leads you to believe that he won't) and you want him, take him. If he would have lasted until your next pick, you reached, which as nicely illustrated above, isn't always a bad thing.

The further towards either end you draft, the more chances you have to take to ensure getting your guys. 22 picks between yours leaves a lot of room for things to get sideways on you.

That being said, I usually separate guys into "draft" or "don't draft" and just let the value in the first group fall to me as it will. Every reach by another owner causes more value to drop.

 

[Bobby Guano]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

Not too chicken or afraid of perception, just not stupid. Not that I'm calling you guys stupid, but it would be stupid to reach over 2 rounds to grab a guy. It's just like shopping for a car or a house. You can't fall in love with one or you'll get taken. You've gotta go in with a game plan and stick to your guns. Don't fall victim to position runs.There are tools. A lot of these sites will give you the ADP for a player as well as the # of drafts taken into account in that ADP along with the high draft pick and low draft pick. So you aren't just blindly following the ADP thinking it is gold. There's even a website that will give you the % likelihood of a player being available at a certain pick. I'm not saying to trust one source wholeheartedly, but be smart - use all the data available.

Bottom line, reach for the guys you truly believe in but don't be stupid. Reaching is a real thing, but it's not a bad thing. You've gotta ensure you get the players you want, but be realistic. And have a backup plan. Don't draft Ridley in the 3rd when Mathews or Lynch are still on the board. That's silliness. Personally, I'll be happy with Hillis or Ridley in the 5th/6th range depending on scoring and roster settings. No player is a sure fire thing so no need to way overpay for a guy. Use ADP to your advantage.

It's only stupid if it dosen't pay off, every pick is a risk. If people took Gronk/Graham 2 rounds early last year it certainly didn't hurt them...but all those poor people that targeted Felix Jones. Just because someone throws ADP to the wind here and there dosen't make them dumb. The owners thay stay ahead of the curve are the one's that come out on top. Riddley could well outperform Mathews or Lynch, how happy are you gonna be if you take Mathews in the 3rd and target Riddley in the 5th. Then Riddley gets taken in the 4th(finnishes top 5) and Mathews breaks his other clavical in his fist game back.

 

[Fireballer]

I drafted a "reach" team Sun night, from the 3 spot. I reached for the one's that I knew wouldn't be there for me in the next round. If the hype pans out,I'm good...

12 team, non PPR, 6 pt all TD 1 qb 2 rb 2 wr 1 flex te k d

1. Foster

2. Mathews

3. Harvin

4. Eli

5.Ridley

6.T.Smith

7.Ryan Williams(Maybe Tate here?)

8.M. Bush

9.Gonzo

10.Schaub

11.Vereen

12.Jeffrey

13.Alfred Morris

K

DEf

 

[duaneok66]

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

+1. You are only waiting b/c of the perception that he should go lower. If you have a player rated higher then take him where you THINK he should go if it ensures you will get him. You don't know how other players in your league are thinking.ex: To some, T.Smith's adp is low and think his ADP should be higher. I don't really see a big deal if someone "reaches" if they really think T.Smith should be higher (some think top 12).

Taking T.Smith in rd 4 is not a "reach" if you think he is top 12 AND it hurts your opponent who thought he could pass on wr early and land t.smith in rd 6 or 7. Sure, we all like to maximize value compared to adp, but taking a top 12 wr in the fourth can also be value in itself.

Screw perception-- these are the peope who are "shocked" when NFL teams draft players earlier than all the ESPN announcers thought--GASP!!!!

We are there to draft our own teams, not based on some prexisting ADP list.

Just to be clear, it's not about perception. It's about maximizing value. Regardless of how you value T.Smith. You want him on your team, so would you rather have Harvin and T.Smith or T.Smith and Bowe? That's the difference between drafting him in the 4th and the 5th.And yes, taking T.Smith in the 4th is still a "reach" if you could've gotten him in the 6th even if he finishes WR1. Again, reaching is all about value. You want to get your guys but you want to reach as little as possible. Another way to view it, reaching for Smith in the 4th is the chicken move. You are compromising the rest of your draft because you had an itchy trigger finger and panicked and drafted him well before anyone else would have.

Imagine a scenario where it's 2008, and you KNOW Aaron Rodgers is going to blow up this year. He's about 120 on the ADP list (11th or 12th round). Would it really have killed you ("compromise the rest of your draft") to take him in the 9th or 10th round? No. You probably would have won your league. You don't have a monopoly on good knowledge/research. Guys have inklings, just like you do. So, you overpay at times to hedge your bets and make sure you get the next greatest thing before someone else has the stones to take him early. While you might want to be judicious in this approach, obviously, you're doing yourself a disservice to your hobby by playing only tight to the vest and following only what the collective groupthink tells you to do. Bottom line: if you do your homework, get your guys. Even if it means overpaying. I value my opinions on guys a lot more than "value" in a vacuum.

thank you.

 

[Monk81]

Brandon Marshall, David Wilson, Percy Harvin, Russell Wilson, and Alshon Jeffery are all guys I drafted a little ahead of their ADP a week ago. The rookies are moving up now though and I don't think I'd go much higher than I did when I drafted them.

 

[FF Ninja]

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

+1. You are only waiting b/c of the perception that he should go lower. If you have a player rated higher then take him where you THINK he should go if it ensures you will get him. You don't know how other players in your league are thinking.ex: To some, T.Smith's adp is low and think his ADP should be higher. I don't really see a big deal if someone "reaches" if they really think T.Smith should be higher (some think top 12).

Taking T.Smith in rd 4 is not a "reach" if you think he is top 12 AND it hurts your opponent who thought he could pass on wr early and land t.smith in rd 6 or 7. Sure, we all like to maximize value compared to adp, but taking a top 12 wr in the fourth can also be value in itself.

Screw perception-- these are the peope who are "shocked" when NFL teams draft players earlier than all the ESPN announcers thought--GASP!!!!

We are there to draft our own teams, not based on some prexisting ADP list.

Just to be clear, it's not about perception. It's about maximizing value. Regardless of how you value T.Smith. You want him on your team, so would you rather have Harvin and T.Smith or T.Smith and Bowe? That's the difference between drafting him in the 4th and the 5th.And yes, taking T.Smith in the 4th is still a "reach" if you could've gotten him in the 6th even if he finishes WR1. Again, reaching is all about value. You want to get your guys but you want to reach as little as possible. Another way to view it, reaching for Smith in the 4th is the chicken move. You are compromising the rest of your draft because you had an itchy trigger finger and panicked and drafted him well before anyone else would have.

Imagine a scenario where it's 2008, and you KNOW Aaron Rodgers is going to blow up this year. He's about 120 on the ADP list (11th or 12th round). Would it really have killed you ("compromise the rest of your draft") to take him in the 9th or 10th round? No. You probably would have won your league. You don't have a monopoly on good knowledge/research. Guys have inklings, just like you do. So, you overpay at times to hedge your bets and make sure you get the next greatest thing before someone else has the stones to take him early. While you might want to be judicious in this approach, obviously, you're doing yourself a disservice to your hobby by playing only tight to the vest and following only what the collective groupthink tells you to do. Bottom line: if you do your homework, get your guys. Even if it means overpaying. I value my opinions on guys a lot more than "value" in a vacuum.

This is the bottom line. A lot of people have gotten confused here, but what I took issue with was someone said there is no such thing as reaching and he continued to write it as "reaching" as if it's not a real thing. Dumb. Reaching IS overpaying for a guy. Someone said that a snake isn't like an auction, I disagree. It obviously has a key difference - it is a blind bid. You don't have the option of paying $1 more. You've got to roll the dice - should I pay $75 now or wait a round and pay $65? Either way, if you draft a guy 2-3 rounds ahead of his ADP, you probably just paid a sick premium for him. We'll never know, but it is a safe bet that you overpaid. And that is a reach - but a bad one.

We can come up with examples all day long, and I don't think the Rodgers one is a good one. Reaching in the 9th or 10th for a guy going in the 11th or 12th is obviously not going to result in the same opportunity cost that reaching for a 6th rounder in the 3rd round is going to.

You mention doing homework - if you truly do your homework you are going to see several value plays in every round. Don't get married to one player. If you do, then you ignore all your homework in the other rounds. T.Smith was a random example, but I actually do like him for his upside. But I also like the upside of Antonio Brown and Eric Decker and I like the stability of Stevie Johnson. My homework tells me there are several guys with upside and no one has a crystal ball here, so it's not like I can know in advance that I'm passing on 1400/12 if I miss Smith. Brown could easily surpass Smith's numbers, so why over reach for Smith? Do your research, forumlate a game plan, and don't panic. If you know what you're doing, you should see several value plays in each round.

Someone gave the example of Mathews breaking his clavicle and Ridley outperforming him. That's weak sauce. Don't bring that silly crap in here. Dumb hypotheticals don't help you make a point. That could happen but no one can predict injuries. If Mathews is performing as RB2 when he goes down and Ridley was RB13 then so be it. Drafting Mathews was the right call but you caught a bad break. It happens. But generally, if a guy has an ADP of 65, you don't need to snag him at 30. He'll be there at 42. Get your guy but be smart about it.

 

[Pipes]

Not a huge reach but drafted Russell Wilson as a QB2 in a 16 team league on Saturday. Though I'm guessing his ADP is going to change drastically now that he's officially a starter.

 

[moleculo]

I don't think there is such a thing as a "reach" or "overpaying" after the 8th round or so.

 

[display name]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

Wrong.The bold move is to try and grab your sleepers as late as possible, meanwhile filling in your roster with other solid players. The entire point of the draft is to maximize your return on investment.

For instance: Let's say you really like Brandon Marshall to be a top 3 WR. The chicken move is to grab him with your 2nd round pick. The bold move is to grab the best player on your board who surely will not be available at your 3rd round pick. Then grab Marshall in the 3rd. That is how you put together monster teams. Not by reaching for the 'guys you want'.

It's all about potential availability at a lower price. Maximizing profit.

It has nothing to do with being worried about anyone else's perception. It's trying to profit of other peoples incorrect perceptions.

 

[moleculo]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

Wrong.The bold move is to try and grab your sleepers as late as possible, meanwhile filling in your roster with other solid players. The entire point of the draft is to maximize your return on investment.

For instance: Let's say you really like Brandon Marshall to be a top 3 WR. The chicken move is to grab him with your 2nd round pick. The bold move is to grab the best player on your board who surely will not be available at your 3rd round pick. Then grab Marshall in the 3rd. That is how you put together monster teams. Not by reaching for the 'guys you want'.

It's all about potential availability at a lower price. Maximizing profit.

It has nothing to do with being worried about anyone else's perception. It's trying to profit of other peoples incorrect perceptions.

all it takes is one other person to like Marshall too, and then he does not make it to you in the 3rd.

 

[meyerj31]

Hernandez for me. I see 1000 yard floor this year. Even better next year, but this year will be great too.

 

[FF Ninja]

Wrong.The bold move is to try and grab your sleepers as late as possible, meanwhile filling in your roster with other solid players. The entire point of the draft is to maximize your return on investment. For instance: Let's say you really like Brandon Marshall to be a top 3 WR. The chicken move is to grab him with your 2nd round pick. The bold move is to grab the best player on your board who surely will not be available at your 3rd round pick. Then grab Marshall in the 3rd. That is how you put together monster teams. Not by reaching for the 'guys you want'. It's all about potential availability at a lower price. Maximizing profit. It has nothing to do with being worried about anyone else's perception. It's trying to profit of other peoples incorrect perceptions.

What a breath of fresh air in this thread. Good to see another poster able to grasp the concept.

 

[VaTerp]

This thread seems to have been hijacked into the definitions of a "reach" and "value."

While there have been so good points made there I think it loses sight of the OP and really just is another reason why I prefer auctions, although I don like participating in one snake as well.

The main point is guys that you are willing to take higher than their ADP to ensure that you get them. You can talk about the definition of reaches and value all you want but the bottom line is some people may really be targeting certain players and will have to gamble on "reaching" for them. All it takes is one other owner to take the guy you wanted. And when you are drafting near the turns you really have to consider reaching.

So I think the point of the thread was who are those guys that people really want and would be willing to step out there and take earlier than they may have to.

 

[display name]

How far you reach should be a two fold analysis:

1) how high are you on a player?

2) what are the odds they are available a round later? two rounds later?

12 teams:

Fred Jackson. 22-27. Shouldn't be available in the late 3rd.

Doug Martin. same.

Marshawn Lynch. I'd take him at 10.

Stevan Ridley. I wonder what his ADP really is recently? I'd take him in the ttop half of the 5th. He might be gone late half of 6th and I am very high on him to be a solid RB2 with high end RB2 upside.

Victor Cruz. supposedly ADP is after the mid 3rd? In any competitive leagues I doubt he would fall that far so I'd take him in the 19-24 slots.

Justin Blackmon. Take him in the 7th.

Don't Reach:

Matt Ryan. Saw him fall all the way to the early 6th. Huge payoff for that owner. Don't take him earlier than the early 4th and only do that if you are huge on him.

 

[display name]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

Wrong.The bold move is to try and grab your sleepers as late as possible, meanwhile filling in your roster with other solid players. The entire point of the draft is to maximize your return on investment.

For instance: Let's say you really like Brandon Marshall to be a top 3 WR. The chicken move is to grab him with your 2nd round pick. The bold move is to grab the best player on your board who surely will not be available at your 3rd round pick. Then grab Marshall in the 3rd. That is how you put together monster teams. Not by reaching for the 'guys you want'.

It's all about potential availability at a lower price. Maximizing profit.

It has nothing to do with being worried about anyone else's perception. It's trying to profit of other peoples incorrect perceptions.

all it takes is one other person to like Marshall too, and then he does not make it to you in the 3rd.

Right. It's called rolling the dice. Going big.

 

[FF Ninja]

This thread seems to have been hijacked into the definitions of a "reach" and "value."While there have been so good points made there I think it loses sight of the OP and really just is another reason why I prefer auctions, although I don like participating in one snake as well.The main point is guys that you are willing to take higher than their ADP to ensure that you get them. You can talk about the definition of reaches and value all you want but the bottom line is some people may really be targeting certain players and will have to gamble on "reaching" for them. All it takes is one other owner to take the guy you wanted. And when you are drafting near the turns you really have to consider reaching.So I think the point of the thread was who are those guys that people really want and would be willing to step out there and take earlier than they may have to.

To get to that point, Brandon Lloyd is my guy. I've tapered off a bit on him as I really like the upside of Brown, Decker, T.Smith (guys I can get if I miss out on Lloyd), but I still plan to reach a round to get him. I almost took him at 3.16/4.01 in the Anarchy draft - he went 5.14, two picks before me. So I agree, auction is by far the way to go. Just hard to get people to make the switch.Also willing to reach on Andre Johnson or Lynch. I'd really like them to be my first two picks. Both are 2nd rounders, so I'll reach on one of them.I plan to wait on TE, but I'll reach a couple rounds to land Olsen.

 

[VaTerp]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

Wrong.The bold move is to try and grab your sleepers as late as possible, meanwhile filling in your roster with other solid players. The entire point of the draft is to maximize your return on investment.

For instance: Let's say you really like Brandon Marshall to be a top 3 WR. The chicken move is to grab him with your 2nd round pick. The bold move is to grab the best player on your board who surely will not be available at your 3rd round pick. Then grab Marshall in the 3rd. That is how you put together monster teams. Not by reaching for the 'guys you want'.

It's all about potential availability at a lower price. Maximizing profit.

It has nothing to do with being worried about anyone else's perception. It's trying to profit of other peoples incorrect perceptions.

all it takes is one other person to like Marshall too, and then he does not make it to you in the 3rd.

Exactly. There is nothing bold about passing on guys you want in the name of "value" or waiting to grab sleepers. That's BS.The people going on and on about maximizing value are missing the point IMO. Of course you want to maximize value but at the end of the day this is a game we play. You do your research, form your opinion, and target certain guys that you REALLY want on your team. I thought that's what this thread was about.

If I am really high on Marshall, for example, then depending on how my draft plays out I may be willing to "reach" for him in the 2nd. I'd much rather do that and secure him on my team than take a guy I'm not nearly as high on simply because the "value" was there.

I learned my lesson with Arian Foster in 2010. I really wanted him but passed on him in the 3rd because it was "too high" to take him. Hoped he would come back to me in the 4th but knew he likely wouldnt. He didnt make it back to me and I regretted that decision for the rest of the season.

If you want a guy, go get him. Value, or at least the perception of value, is really overrated by many.

How far you reach should be a two fold analysis:

1) how high are you on a player?

2) what are the odds they are available a round later? two rounds later?

It really is that simple.

 

[ScottyDog]

But it doesn't scream 'reaching'.

Oddly, I have gotten him in the last round of each draft I have done, but Bilal Powell screams value. Not that i think he will be great, but to get a top 32 RB in the last round of 16-18 round drafts, shouts value.

 

[moleculo]

I'd also like to point out that all players are drafted ahead of their ADP roughly half the time, by definition of average.

 

[moleculo]

Brandon Marshall has a current ADP of 23.5, with a standard deviation of 5.4 in a 12 team PPR league.

Using some basic statistics, there is a 15% chance that he is drafted at or before the 18th overall pick, a 25% chance he is drafted at or before the 20th, and a 61% chance he is gone by the 25th pick.

ETA: the stats are similar for a 10 team league. The odds that Marshall is drafted in the 2nd round in a ten team league is 25%. if you have Marshall rated highly and you are towards the end of the 2nd, you should take him at that point.

 

[12punch]

Brandon Marshall has a current ADP of 23.5, with a standard deviation of 5.4 in a 12 team PPR league.

Using some basic statistics, there is a 15% chance that he is drafted at or before the 18th overall pick, a 25% chance he is drafted at or before the 20th, and a 61% chance he is gone by the 25th pick.

I think reaching is a question of which round you pick a guy in, not which pick.in your example, marshall is solid second round in a 12 teamer -- taking him in the first would be a reach.

in most leagues you only get one pick in a round, so if he's the guy you like best in that vicinity then that's just called making a pick in the round.

I drafted 8th of 12 in a redraft and after my preferred first rounders got taken ahead of me, I just took my 2nd round target in the first, as I wasn't crazy about the rest of bottom first riff raff -- that was a reach, but not the classic reach where I drafted him early because I was afraid of losing him.

 

[urbanhack]

I usually separate guys into "draft" or "don't draft" and just let the value in the first group fall to me as it will. Every reach by another owner causes more value to drop.

 

[VaTerp]

I usually separate guys into "draft" or "don't draft" and just let the value in the first group fall to me as it will. Every reach by another owner causes more value to drop.

Draft and do not draft seems overly broad to me.I do my rankings and tiers. There are certain guys within those tiers that I feel very strongly about and target more than other guys who have similar "value."I guess if you're a guy who just looks at players in broad categories then it's a good strategy to just be happy with whoever falls to you.If, after all of your draft prep, there are certain guys that you are really high on then I think it's ok to reach for them in a snake or pay a little more for them in an auction. All within reason of course.

 

[Tanner9919]

I'd reach for:

David Wilson

V. Cruz

A. Brown

J. Blackmon

Russell Wilson

Fred Jackson

K. Britt

R. Jennings - forget MJD, even if he does report, it'll take weeks to get in game ready shape,and history of holdouts isn't kind to the player when he finally does return resulting in poor stats, injury,etc...

Blackmon looks like he's going to catch 80+ balls with the way Gabbert locks in on him..

Fred Jackson is a top 5 RB with a mid round ADP..an absolute STEAL..

even with Wallace returning, Brown figures to catch a lot of balls/Tds in Haley's offense..

Cruz might be even better/do even more in 2012

D. Wilson is a sneeze away from a starting gig..

 

[LawFitz]

It's just like shopping for a car or a house. You can't fall in love with one or you'll get taken.

I hope you're enjoying the weather in Rancho Cucamonga and your gold on tan Accord. Are those hub caps 17"? What a deal!Sometimes you have to pay to get what you want instead of settling for the left overs. Nothing burns more than taking a guy you didn't want because he fell and then watching him suck it up for your squad while the guy you actually wanted performs for someone else.

 

[VaTerp]

It's just like shopping for a car or a house. You can't fall in love with one or you'll get taken.

I hope you're enjoying the weather in Rancho Cucamonga and your gold on tan Accord. Are those hub caps 17"? What a deal!Sometimes you have to pay to get what you want instead of settling for the left overs. Nothing burns more than taking a guy you didn't want because he fell and then watching him suck it up for your squad while the guy you actually wanted performs for someone else.

Exactly. My Foster reference above is perfect example of that.I just don't get the mindset of these guys who say a player is either "draft" or "do not draft" and just wait for whoever falls to them. Seems like a relatively mundane way to play this game if you ask me.

 

[Modog814]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

Not too chicken or afraid of perception, just not stupid. Not that I'm calling you guys stupid, but it would be stupid to reach over 2 rounds to grab a guy. It's just like shopping for a car or a house. You can't fall in love with one or you'll get taken. You've gotta go in with a game plan and stick to your guns. Don't fall victim to position runs.There are tools. A lot of these sites will give you the ADP for a player as well as the # of drafts taken into account in that ADP along with the high draft pick and low draft pick. So you aren't just blindly following the ADP thinking it is gold. There's even a website that will give you the % likelihood of a player being available at a certain pick. I'm not saying to trust one source wholeheartedly, but be smart - use all the data available.

Bottom line, reach for the guys you truly believe in but don't be stupid. Reaching is a real thing, but it's not a bad thing. You've gotta ensure you get the players you want, but be realistic. And have a backup plan. Don't draft Ridley in the 3rd when Mathews or Lynch are still on the board. That's silliness. Personally, I'll be happy with Hillis or Ridley in the 5th/6th range depending on scoring and roster settings. No player is a sure fire thing so no need to way overpay for a guy. Use ADP to your advantage.

This. Otherwise your logic would tell you to draft Donald Brown with the first overall pick if you thought he was going to end up #1 overall. Which is silly because you can almost certainly (99.999%) get him with the first pick in round 3.

 

[Bobby Guano]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

Wrong.The bold move is to try and grab your sleepers as late as possible, meanwhile filling in your roster with other solid players. The entire point of the draft is to maximize your return on investment.

For instance: Let's say you really like Brandon Marshall to be a top 3 WR. The chicken move is to grab him with your 2nd round pick. The bold move is to grab the best player on your board who surely will not be available at your 3rd round pick. Then grab Marshall in the 3rd. That is how you put together monster teams. Not by reaching for the 'guys you want'.

It's all about potential availability at a lower price. Maximizing profit.

It has nothing to do with being worried about anyone else's perception. It's trying to profit of other peoples incorrect perceptions.

You don't have to explain maximizing value to me or most likely anyone else arguing for reaching. I think everyone who is taking about this understands this and knows that idealy thats what you want to do. But if you're in mostly competitive long running leagues whith the same owners every year you have to strike a good balance with this and go ahead and reach sometimes otherwise you WILL miss out on a lot of the players you really want.

Its a pretty bad example but I'll run with it...

I had the 11 pick in a PPR start 3 WR league last week(in Chicago mind you) and took Marshell at 14 (5th WR off the board) there was know way in hell if I had taken Andre Johnson instead Marshall he would have been there for me in the third.

All we are saying is that sometimes to get ahead you just have to say F*** it and make sure you get the guy you want as a opposed to constantly worrying about maximising your value with every single pick, (which in highly competetive leagues will cause you to loose out on guys more often than not.)

 

[urbanhack]

Mr. Furley

 

[Bobby Guano]

There is no such thing as a reach. Is it a reach because the concensus does not agree with you? Take who you want when you want.

ADP is only useful to determine "value" but I am not letting it dictate whether I am reaching, or should not reach, blah blah.

this (to a certain extent).

No, not to any extent. That was actually pure foolishness. A snake draft is not completely dissimilar to an auction. The difference is you have fixed bids. You'd be an idiot to blow your 1.09 bid on a guy you could've only paid 5.09 for. So yes, reaches do exist. There is such thing as a reach and it is dumb to suggest otherwise. If you think Ridley is going to finish as the 23rd best fantasy player, that doesn't mean you have to draft him 23rd overall. If his ADP is 65th, play it safe and take him 50th, but don't reach farther than necessary.Edit to fix typo (typed risk instead of reach)

Here lies the error in your analysis - how do yo uknow he won't go earlier than 50th? ADP means average - maybe this your definition of "safe" but maybe three other owners think its 40th. Then they are getting a guy (in your opinion) is getting picked 17 picks too low, and you are stuck with headaches and heartaches when Ridley blows up (like you thought), but you were too chicken to pick him earlier because you were afraid of perception.

Again, to each his own.

This....It's better to go ahead and nail down the guys you want than to be stuck with a bunch of players you didn't really want becasue you were to concerned with ADP and getting top value with every pick.

Fortune favors the bold!

Wrong.The bold move is to try and grab your sleepers as late as possible, meanwhile filling in your roster with other solid players. The entire point of the draft is to maximize your return on investment.

For instance: Let's say you really like Brandon Marshall to be a top 3 WR. The chicken move is to grab him with your 2nd round pick. The bold move is to grab the best player on your board who surely will not be available at your 3rd round pick. Then grab Marshall in the 3rd. That is how you put together monster teams. Not by reaching for the 'guys you want'.

It's all about potential availability at a lower price. Maximizing profit.

It has nothing to do with being worried about anyone else's perception. It's trying to profit of other peoples incorrect perceptions.

all it takes is one other person to like Marshall too, and then he does not make it to you in the 3rd.

Exactly. There is nothing bold about passing on guys you want in the name of "value" or waiting to grab sleepers. That's BS.The people going on and on about maximizing value are missing the point IMO. Of course you want to maximize value but at the end of the day this is a game we play. You do your research, form your opinion, and target certain guys that you REALLY want on your team. I thought that's what this thread was about.

If I am really high on Marshall, for example, then depending on how my draft plays out I may be willing to "reach" for him in the 2nd. I'd much rather do that and secure him on my team than take a guy I'm not nearly as high on simply because the "value" was there.

I learned my lesson with Arian Foster in 2010. I really wanted him but passed on him in the 3rd because it was "too high" to take him. Hoped he would come back to me in the 4th but knew he likely wouldnt. He didnt make it back to me and I regretted that decision for the rest of the season.

If you want a guy, go get him. Value, or at least the perception of value, is really overrated by many.

How far you reach should be a two fold analysis:

1) how high are you on a player?

2) what are the odds they are available a round later? two rounds later?

It really is that simple.

Well said!!!

 

[Judge Smails]

I would be willing to take Eva Longoria with my 1st pick

Might was well take Brady, Hasslebeck and all RB's over age 30 too

 

[ponchsox]

Tannehill

Lauren that is.