ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am not saying Brady is going to win. He very likely will not. He unfortunately missed the first 4 games of the year against the Juggernauts that are Arizona, Miami, Houston, and Buffalo.
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Who's the 2016 NFL MVP right now? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ghost Rider
- Start date
FUBAR
Footballguy
Fun fact - the Patriots won as many games against playoff teams without Brady as they won with him. (2-0 vs 2-1)
Sabertooth
Footballguy
It looks like Ryan is going to win and good on him. He's a stand up guy by all accounts.
Gun to your head...who do you want QB'ing your team in the playoffs...Ryan, Brady or Rodgers?
Ryan wins most valuable stats this year. Good for him. However, he is nowhere near the QB Brady is...and I have always been a Ryan supporter since his days at BC. He tends to tighten up on the big stage.
rockaction
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Like what, YPA? Hmmm, looks like Ryan lapped the field in that stat. What else?
All of that is irrelevant as to who should be the MVP.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Ryan is a bit older than I would have guessed from memory. The ups and downs in his win totals over the years have been impressive. Congratulations to him if he gets this. I bet he has his eyes on another prize. Me , I've always liked him.
Two 13 win seasons and one 4 win season. He has seen both sides of success, nice if he gets some recognition. In reading a bit about him I realize he went in the same draft where the Packers, the team I follow, took Brian Brohm. That put me in mind of a discussion I heard where a fellow Packer fan was predicting greater career success for Brohm than Ryan would have.
Two 13 win seasons and one 4 win season. He has seen both sides of success, nice if he gets some recognition. In reading a bit about him I realize he went in the same draft where the Packers, the team I follow, took Brian Brohm. That put me in mind of a discussion I heard where a fellow Packer fan was predicting greater career success for Brohm than Ryan would have.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
All else equal? I'll take Rodgers but readily agree Brady is right there with him. Of course that's irrelevant to the season's MVP award.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Your NE bias is showing...
I missed where the 2016 MVP requirements were past season performances/finishes.
That wasn't the question I was responding to.
The question was, what QB would you want in the playoffs.
Rodgers is white hot now sure, but his full body of work doesn't make him a "no brainer" over Brady and Ryan per the OP's comment.
For whatever reason, Rodger's past failings are often quietly swept under the rug. Don't get it.
rockaction
Footballguy
No, but he has won one. He's certainly not incapable. His career winning percentage is a stunning 90-45, according to Pro Football Reference
I'd choose him because he could be the best all-around quarterback I've ever seen play. I'm not a Packer fan, either. The way he's able to throw the ball with strength, touch, accuracy and the way he moves around out and in the pocket is second-to-none, unless we're talking Cam Newton.
Both his stats and advanced stats are serious sights to behold, as is his career winning percentage and his overall talent.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Ryan is borderline Eli Manning Jekyll/Hyde with how his play varies season by season. We can get into how Brady and Belichick have "misinterpreted the rules" in years past in order to succeed but I won't open that can of worms (or is it too late). Rodgers is a dual threat, which is more than either one of those two can say. I would agree and take Rodgers over those 2 in the playoffs.
Fair enough.
I do think if they gave MVP for the "2nd half of the year" it would be Rodgers, but you can't discount what took place in the first half. Would be hard for me to give Rodgers the vote for this reason (despite the fact I think he may continue to tear it up and put the team on his back all the way to the super bowl).
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
In 14 playoff games, Rodgers has a passer rating of 98.2, with 30 touchdowns (27 passing, 3 rushing) and 8 interceptions.
In 31 playoff games, Brady has a passer rating of 88.0, with 62 touchdowns (56 passing, 6 rushing) and 28 interceptions.
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree. The advanced stats on the year favor Ryan and Brady.
But if you gave me a guy, all other things constant, to win a game right now, I'm picking Rodgers (though he got a tough draw against the Giants whose secondary is lights out right now).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As 12 pages of debate has shown, MVP consideration or post season success does not fall on one guy. You can have gaudy numbers and a mediocre team record or you can have mediocre numbers but a great team record. There are a lot of moving parts.
In the SB era, the top post season passers based on passer rating are Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Montana, Mark Sanchez, Ken Anderson, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, and Joe Theismann. How confident are people if your team was led heading into the playoffs by Smith, Sanchez, or Romo? Would you take those three over Brady? I doubt it. Brady is in the next group of 10 in post season passer rating. Along with Colin Kaepernick and Philip Rivers.
If people prefer ANY/A as a metric, the list is even more diverse. The Top 10 post season QBs in the SB era are Rodney Peete, Steve Beuerlein, Kelly Holcomb, Jeff Hostetler, Don Strock, Tim Tebow, Lynn Dickey, Kurt Warner, Don Majkowski, and Drew Brees.
Perhaps post season game winning drives is more your cup of tea. Brady is the all time leader with 9 (Elway is second with 6). Rodgers has 1. Does that make Brady any better than Rodgers? I doubt it.
Folks will argue anything to make their guy look better than the other guy, as there is always some metric or statistic to argue.
In the SB era, the top post season passers based on passer rating are Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Montana, Mark Sanchez, Ken Anderson, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, and Joe Theismann. How confident are people if your team was led heading into the playoffs by Smith, Sanchez, or Romo? Would you take those three over Brady? I doubt it. Brady is in the next group of 10 in post season passer rating. Along with Colin Kaepernick and Philip Rivers.
If people prefer ANY/A as a metric, the list is even more diverse. The Top 10 post season QBs in the SB era are Rodney Peete, Steve Beuerlein, Kelly Holcomb, Jeff Hostetler, Don Strock, Tim Tebow, Lynn Dickey, Kurt Warner, Don Majkowski, and Drew Brees.
Perhaps post season game winning drives is more your cup of tea. Brady is the all time leader with 9 (Elway is second with 6). Rodgers has 1. Does that make Brady any better than Rodgers? I doubt it.
Folks will argue anything to make their guy look better than the other guy, as there is always some metric or statistic to argue.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Exactly. I think you could make a case for either Brady or Rodgers. They're both phenomenal. Brady has the hardware but he's had the benefit of much better coaching. You give Rodgers Belichick and God knows what kind of playoff success he would have
I have no problem with going Brady or Rodgers though. I prefer Rodgers for the reasons rockaction laid out.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
There are a lot of factors that go into super bowl wins/appearances. It's not a one man sport. If all things are equal, do you think it's even debatable that Rodgers could be ahead of Brady in a one game do-or-die? Or do you think Brady is hands down the pick in that situation? I think it's very close. Rodgers teams have not had the same level of success that Brady's teams have had but can you pin that on Rodgers when his overall playoff stats are better than Brady's?
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Uh, Rodgers' playoff stats are superior to Brady's.
His YPA is higher, his TD rate is higher, his INT rate is lower, his comp % is higher, his QB rating is higher, he has rushed for more yards.
Brady has more wins & a higher win %, but that's it, and those are team stats, not QB stats.
So, yeah, his full body of work could allow someone to consider Rodgers a "no brainer" over Tom Brady with regards to the question "what QB would you want in the playoffs?"
Anarchy99
Footballguy
"Statistics are for losers. The final score is for winners."
- Bill Belichick
There is no doubt that Rodgers is one of a handful of the best QBs to ever play the game, but I would not be so eager to poo poo titles, wins, and winning percentage and simply defer that as a team-only metric.
Comparing Rodgers to Brady, the only real difference is Rodgers runs significantly more (and better) than Brady. Here is the tale of the tape.
Rodgers has been a starter for 9 years. In that time, his regular season passing totals have been:
2999 completions, 4598 attempts, 65.2% completion rate, 36498 passing yards, 296 TD, 71 INT, 104.5 passer rating, 90-45 record (.667)
In Brady's last 9 years as a starter in the regular season . . .
3348 completions, 5160 attempts, 40018 passing yards, 309 TD, 74 INT, 102.5 passer rating, 113-28 record (.801)
Those passing numbers are about as close as you can get (wins and losses aside). Clearly Rodgers holds a huge advantage running the football, but passing wise there is close to no difference over the same timeframe.
And in the post season . . .
Rodgers
298 completions, 467 attempts, 3454 passing yards, 27 TD, 8 INT, 98.2 passer rating, 7-6 record, 1 SB win, played in 2 NFCCG
Brady
443 completions, 697 attempts, 4740 passing yards, 36 TD, 19 INT, 89.2 passer rating, 10-7 record, 1 SB win, 1 SB loss, played in 6 AFCCG
The major difference between the two is Brady has thrown picks more frequently than in the post season than the regular season.
At this point, these types of debates are similar to who the hottest Playmate of the Year was. You really can't go wrong with whichever one you picked.
1-Brady has never won a single game by himself, nor has Rodgers, nor has any QB in the history of the NFL. If we are discussing which QB I would have more faith in for a single game, I'm making the assumption that the teams/coaching staff/etc around them are equal. Otherwise, the question should be "which team/organization would you have more faith in to win a single game?"
2-The posts I was responding to were asking "Gun to your head...who do you want QB'ing your team in the playoffs;" regular season performance is not as relevant as playoff performance in this context.
3-I have different stats for Brady in the playoffs, and while Brady has higher numbers based on volume, Rodgers has performed better in pretty much all the categories. Brady has a 66% completion % to Rodgers' 64%, but in YPA, TD rate, INT rate, & passer rating, Rodgers has superior numbers. Brady has averaged 10 more pass yards/game, but when you factor in their rushing numbers, they are pretty equal in total yards/game (Rodgers has averaged 1 yard more/game than Brady when you combine pass+rush yards).
So again, when you just look at the two players (assuming their supporting casts, coaching staff, defense, O-lines, etc are equal) and ask "Gun to your head...who do you want QB'ing your team in the playoffs?," Rodgers is a very defensible answer; he has been more productive in the playoffs than Brady.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
The stats I listed for Brady and Rodgers were based on the number of years that Rodgers has been a starter (9 years) . . . so I only used the last 9 years of stats for Brady as a starter. IMO, this is a better way to compare the two, as that's when both were playing at the same time. Therefore, I only used a portion of Brady's career totals (regular season or post season).
My point being in general, the last few years passing totals have been way more inflated than the early 2000's when Brady started. I was comparing apples to apples.
Does anyone remember (or really care) which QB had the highest passer rating in the playoffs in any given season? No. People care who wins the SB. As I posted earlier. ASmith, Sanchez, and Romo have better post season numbers than Brady and combined none of them have even played in a SB. Are they better post season QBs than Brady is?
As I mentioned probably 10 pages ago, which is better. Having an 85 passer rating in a game and winning or having a 105 passer rating in a game and losing (especially in the playoffs)?
Besides the obvious (defense, injuries, coaching, weather, opponents, etc.), there is so much more involved than just statistics to being a QB. Audibling to a run to get a first down that extends a drive. Throwing the ball away to avoid a sack. Tacking a sack to keep the clock running at the end of the game instead of throwing the ball away (a la Eli). Not forcing the ball and punting instead of turning the ball over. Throwing a pick 2 to lose a game (a la Matty Ice). Getting the defense to jump offsie and getting a free play (Rodgers is a master). Running the hurry up to keep defenders on the field. Running a play in 8 seconds to prevent a challenge. Clock management at the end of the game in general.
Those are just some of the things that can help win a game but are not reflected one iota in the stats. Which is better late in the game? Ryan throwing a TD pass from the 30 yard line to give ATL the lead but leaving 2:00 on the clock? Or calling running play after running play and finally scoring on a rushing play by a RB with 8 seconds to go to win? Stat wise, in this example, Ryan would have better stats. But his team could lose the game.
Which brings us full circle. Any team would give their right arm or first born children to have either Rodgers or Brady . . . in the regular season or in the playoffs.
My point being in general, the last few years passing totals have been way more inflated than the early 2000's when Brady started. I was comparing apples to apples.
Does anyone remember (or really care) which QB had the highest passer rating in the playoffs in any given season? No. People care who wins the SB. As I posted earlier. ASmith, Sanchez, and Romo have better post season numbers than Brady and combined none of them have even played in a SB. Are they better post season QBs than Brady is?
As I mentioned probably 10 pages ago, which is better. Having an 85 passer rating in a game and winning or having a 105 passer rating in a game and losing (especially in the playoffs)?
Besides the obvious (defense, injuries, coaching, weather, opponents, etc.), there is so much more involved than just statistics to being a QB. Audibling to a run to get a first down that extends a drive. Throwing the ball away to avoid a sack. Tacking a sack to keep the clock running at the end of the game instead of throwing the ball away (a la Eli). Not forcing the ball and punting instead of turning the ball over. Throwing a pick 2 to lose a game (a la Matty Ice). Getting the defense to jump offsie and getting a free play (Rodgers is a master). Running the hurry up to keep defenders on the field. Running a play in 8 seconds to prevent a challenge. Clock management at the end of the game in general.
Those are just some of the things that can help win a game but are not reflected one iota in the stats. Which is better late in the game? Ryan throwing a TD pass from the 30 yard line to give ATL the lead but leaving 2:00 on the clock? Or calling running play after running play and finally scoring on a rushing play by a RB with 8 seconds to go to win? Stat wise, in this example, Ryan would have better stats. But his team could lose the game.
Which brings us full circle. Any team would give their right arm or first born children to have either Rodgers or Brady . . . in the regular season or in the playoffs.
Can't imagine a scenario where Elliott could win. I highly doubt he's even a top-3 finish. Its Ryan/Brady/Rodgers in some(likely that) order for sure.
I'm of the belief Brady should win it, but if you are a stickler for the 16 games played thing, then Ryan is certainly the best choice. Don't really see any good argument for Rodgers.
Getting back to Elliott, I kinda dislike that he was the All-Pro RB over Jay Ajayi. Give Ajayi the o-line Elliott had, and he might have had 2,000 yards. I'm not saying I think Ajayi is a better player than Elliott, but I was much more impressed by his 2016. 3 games over 200 yards rushing, and putting an entire franchise on his back and carrying them kicking and screaming into the playoffs, is a lot more impressive than Elliott basically being a slightly more efficient 2014 DeMarco Murray.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There has been plenty of discussion on the DAL OL, so no need to revisit that again.
The issue I have with Ajayi in general is he had 624 rushing yards in 3 games (which is insane). But by extension, that also means he had 648 rushing yards in 12 other games (which works out to 54 yards a game . . . which is not even noteworthy at all).
The issue I have with Ajayi in general is he had 624 rushing yards in 3 games (which is insane). But by extension, that also means he had 648 rushing yards in 12 other games (which works out to 54 yards a game . . . which is not even noteworthy at all).
FUBAR
Footballguy
it's crazy that JA had 3 games over 200 and only one game in the 100s. That has a lot to do with his usage but it will be interesting to see how he does next year. I'm just not sold on the kid.
With regards to the bolded, that makes sense to me; I just didn't realize it when I read/responded earlier.
As far as the rest of the post, those are getting into subjective, intangible categories like leadership, intelligence, etc. There is no way to prove that Brady is smarter or more of a leader than Rodgers. Since those are subjective arguments, anyone could make an argument for/against either side. Personally, I believe that Rodgers is every bit as intelligent (football intelligent), and every bit the leader that Brady is, so I'll revert to the numbers, which say that Rodgers has performed better than Brady in the playoffs.
With regards to your last line, I agree 100%; I was responding to a set of posts that were discussing an either/or question (with Ryan thrown in) about which QB you'd want in a playoff game. As I've posted, Rodgers is a choice that can be easily defended, and Brady isn't the "no-brainer" answer that one of the posts suggested.
Tau837
Footballguy
If the question were about head coach/QB combos, I'd take Brady and Belichick easily. However, since the question seems to be asking about just the QB, Rodgers is an easy choice over Brady IMO. (And Ryan isn't even a consideration.)
The point is, those arguing for Brady as the answer to this question because of his past postseason success seem to be ignoring that he has always had the advantage of Belichick.
FUBAR
Footballguy
One attended the Harvard of the Midwest, the other the Harvard of the west. It's almost scary how similar these two really are, the difference being coach and supporting cast. Not McCarthy is a bad coach or the packers haven't had talent but BB might just be the best NFL coach ever (ignoring cheating, the dude wins) with all due respect to Landry and Shula.
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Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I thought Lawrence was the Harvard of the Midwest
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Team stats. By just about any measure, Rodgers has been a better playoff QB than Brady, when comparing their individual play. In a sport where both teams have 53 active players, it seems kinda silly to attach wins and losses to just one guy on each team, no?kyoun1e said:
Got it. So Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson were winners, and Dan Marino and Dan Fouts were not, by that metric.Anarchy99 said:
All good questions.fred_1_15301 said:
It's easy to forget that Rodgers has two playoff losses where the other team got the ball first in OT and scored a TD to win the game, meaning Rodgers never saw the ball in OT, and after tying both games at the end of regulation with clutch drives. And another playoff loss was a 51-45 game where he had five total touchdowns and threw for over 400 yards.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
When a coach says wins are all that matters, he's (mostly) right - For his peer group.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
BB will fight to the death that a defense that allows 500 yards a game but allows 14 ppg is better than a defense that allows 250 yards a game and 17 ppg. In his mind, it is not even debatable.
In many ways, he coaches not to lose. You would think that that approach would have come back to bite him, but SO MANY teams do stupid things that it is hard to question his logic. It is certainly hard to refute his end results. Unless, of course, people want to assail him on his long-standing, systemic culture of cheating.
DropKick
Footballguy
The Packers were 4-6 at one point right? He had a great second half of the season. Ryan was solid wire to wire. I think it's Ryan, personally, with honorable mentions to Rodgers and Brady.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I agree for the most part but anarchy didn't really focus on intelligence or leadership, he mentioned things that people who watch him play game in and game out see all the time. For instance Bradys success rate on 3rd/4th short rushing situations. Not a high profile stat, but a critical one if u want to keep the ball and move the chains. Point being, just because it isn't measured in the stat column doesn't mean its subjective or an intangible or unimportant. Yes winning is a team stat, but so is virtually every single play in the game of football. Its hard to quantify, but I certainly agree brady has benefited from great coaching and at times good to great def & sts; however so do virtualy all successful qbs.Bayhawks said:
Having said that, I think Rodgers is fantastic and if he can stay healthy he could win multiple SBs before he is done but he can't win them if he doesn't get to them. I do think this playoff year is pretty important with regard to how he is viewed. I think many people including myself think the packers have as good a shot at getting to the sb as dal or atl and i put together my playoff lineups accordingly. Right or wrong, if the packers go one and done (ill b peed) this year its going to reflect poorly on rodgers, thats just the way it works. I don't expect that, I think they win and will have a decent shot of beating dal. Should they then lose to the #1 seed on the road its a different story, but they should at least get there.
Peace
CalBear
Footballguy
What possible influence does Brady have on QB sneak success? He's a mid-sized, slow, not very strong guy. He happens to have had a great offensive line for almost his whole career.
massraider
Footballguy
I like telling Harvard guys they attended the Stanford of the East.Ditkaless Wonders said:
FUBAR
Footballguy
Yeah, there are a lot a "Harvards" out there. Point is they both attended top notch schools (which doesn't really reflect the football players' intelligence anyway, but it's not the first irrelevant fact mentioned here)
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
This entire debate is about who should be the MVP this season. This is not about who's had the better career and who you would rather have as your QB in the playoffs. I feel some are struggling to separate this when debating who the MVP of the season should be.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
If Rodgers plays out of his mind this weekend but they still lose you can't really hold that against him.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
But some people will. That is what it has come to with a significant percentage of sports fans: they look at wins and losses as the end-all, be-all, which in a team sport where its one team's 53 vs the other team's 53, seems kind of crazy.If Rodgers plays out of his mind this weekend but they still lose you can't really hold that against him.
skinsrule05
Footballguy
Agreed, wins and losses has to be the weakest argument for a QBs greatness.
It is the same in baseball. The pitcher with the most wins is celebrated and the lowest ERA is an afterthought.
skinsrule05
Footballguy
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
That is not true. Even a casual fan of baseball knows that wins are an irrelevant stat to use to judge how effective a pitcher is.
