Who's the biggest hit or miss in 2006? (1 Viewer)

[MLBrandow]

Which guys are most likely to finish either top-10 at their position or completely tank?

For me:

QB: Aaron Brooks

RB: Ronnie Brown

WR: Koren Robinson

TE: Kellen Winslow

DEF: Atlanta

interested to see some people's picks.

Generally looking for guys with the highest ceilings/lowest floors relative to their ADP.

I wouldn't qualify "sleepers" in this discussion. Let's stick to the early-mid round guys, as sleepers are generally hit or miss by nature.

 

[Marc Levin]

Ronnie Brown could easily be the #12 or #15 RB while having a normal season. 320 touches, 1200 total yards, and 6 total TDs would not be tanking and would not be top-10.

Of course, *I* see a much better season from him.

The RB you should have put in there was Reggie Bush - he's either top-10 this year or practically worthless in non-PPR leagues.

 

[MLBrandow]

Ronnie Brown could easily be the #12 or #15 RB while having a normal season. 320 touches, 1200 total yards, and 6 total TDs would not be tanking and would not be top-10.Of course, *I* see a much better season from him.The RB you should have put in there was Reggie Bush - he's either top-10 this year or practically worthless in non-PPR leagues.

I was debating Bush as well.Opinions on others?

 

[massraider]

Chester Taylor.

Drew Brees. I think if his shoulder is right, he'll be right. If it's not.....

WR, I can't think of one. Depends on QB injuries. Koren is as good a pick as any. One name that come to my mind is Kevin Curtis.

 

[wannabee]

Culpepper

KJones

Coles

Stevens

Minny

 

[Monse]

DeShaun Foster

 

[Jim Otto]

Chester Taylor.

Drew Brees. I think if his shoulder is right, he'll be right. If it's not.....

WR, I can't think of one. Depends on QB injuries. Koren is as good a pick as any. One name that come to my mind is Kevin Curtis.

I could not disagree with the Taylor pick more. He will way outperform his ADP this year IMO.

 

[Marc Levin]

Chester Taylor.

Drew Brees. I think if his shoulder is right, he'll be right. If it's not.....

WR, I can't think of one. Depends on QB injuries. Koren is as good a pick as any. One name that come to my mind is Kevin Curtis.

I could not disagree with the Taylor pick more. He will way outperform his ADP this year IMO.

that's the point - he'll either way outrperfom his ADP and be a top-10 RB or he'll fall off the planet and be totally worthless.That's the definitionm of ahit or miss player.

The good thing about Taylor is you pay way less for him, so you really benefit with a hit, and don't suffer as much with a miss (versus picking a top-10 RB by ADP).

 

[MLBrandow]

Brees I think unseats Brooks as the biggest hit or miss QB.

Coles is a good choice as well for WR.

Don't think KJones makes the cut. At worst, he'll revert to the norm and be an underwhelming RB2.

The only reason I feel like Ronnie Brown is a good hit or miss RB pick is because he has never carried the load before, and I consider him a soft runner who likes to pretend he's jerome bettis.

KJ seems more like the "I wish I hadn't picked this guy even though he seems like the BPA" guy. I don't see him completely tanking unless he goes down with a fluke injury.

JJ is probably the best pick I think. Lots of risk, definitely talented enough to be a solid RB1, could also be on the bench by week 6.

Agree with Levin regarding CT. I think he's hit or miss, but far from the high/lows. At best he's a fringe RB1, and at worst he's a Sammy Morris. Just seems like JJ has higher ceiling/floor to me. I'm on the JJJuice right now though, so I'm floating more to the hit side.

 

[Marc Levin]

In round one, owners who draft Barber, Caddy, Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson run the biggest risk of losing their league with those picks.

In round two, owners who draft Julius or Kevin Jones, Dom Davis and Jamal Lewis run the biggest risk of wasting those picks.

At least half of the owner's in each of these running back groups will be wishing they had taken Manning or a high end wide receiver, instead of these running backs listed.

???Barber is always so underrated. He's finished as the RB 7, 15, 2, 4 the last four years. Where's the risk????

I'll take Barber over Manning or any WR in a heartbeat.

On the rest you are accurate - they have no track record of production to rely on. On Barber, I need to see some HARD reasoning on that (not "I think he's slowing down this year b/c he's 30" or "I think he'll be hurt")

 

[SSOG]

Absolutely, positively, 100% no question Larry Johnson.

Last season, he produced at a historic rate. If he hits this year and duplicates that success, he could be good for 2000 yards and 20+ TDs and single-handedly carry you to a fantasy title.

On the other hand, we're really only going off of 8 games worth of data. He has two new tackles, a new fullback, and a brand new (less fantasy-friendly) coach. Other guys who have been projected to good season based on 8 games include McGahee, Kevin Jones, Kevan Barlow, and William Green. If Larry Johnson busts like those guys did (i.e. "misses"), then it's the double whammy, because not only did he bust, but he cost you the #1 overall pick in the process.

In terms of risk/reward, Larry Johnson has the largest disparity between his upside and his downside of anyone in the NFL.

 

[MLBrandow]

add to Levin:

People don't understand that he has like 40% of the average RB wear for his age.

Guys don't just randomly slow down at 32 versus 25, it's because they carried the ball 5000 times.

 

[duaneok66]

In round one, owners who draft Barber, Caddy, Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson run the biggest risk of losing their league with those picks.

In round two, owners who draft Julius or Kevin Jones, Dom Davis and Jamal Lewis run the biggest risk of wasting those picks.

At least half of the owner's in each of these running back groups will be wishing they had taken Manning or a high end wide receiver, instead of these running backs listed.

???Barber is always so underrated. He's finished as the RB 7, 15, 2, 4 the last four years. Where's the risk????

I'll take Barber over Manning or any WR in a heartbeat.

On the rest you are accurate - they have no track record of production to rely on. On Barber, I need to see some HARD reasoning on that (not "I think he's slowing down this year b/c he's 30" or "I think he'll be hurt")

yeah, there's no evidence stating that backs slow down in their thirties . . .carry on . . .

 

[duaneok66]

add to Levineople don't understand that he has like 40% of the average RB wear for his age.Guys don't just randomly slow down at 32 versus 25, it's because they carried the ball 5000 times.

wrong, you should pick up a copy of PFP 2006 (Pro Football Prospectus)they did a detailed study of what you just typed and proved that age, not weight, is the deciding factor . . .

 

[wannabee]

Brees I think unseats Brooks as the biggest hit or miss QB.Coles is a good choice as well for WR.Don't think KJones makes the cut. At worst, he'll revert to the norm and be an underwhelming RB2.The only reason I feel like Ronnie Brown is a good hit or miss RB pick is because he has never carried the load before, and I consider him a soft runner who likes to pretend he's jerome bettis.KJ seems more like the "I wish I hadn't picked this guy even though he seems like the BPA" guy. I don't see him completely tanking unless he goes down with a fluke injury.JJ is probably the best pick I think. Lots of risk, definitely talented enough to be a solid RB1, could also be on the bench by week 6.Agree with Levin regarding CT. I think he's hit or miss, but far from the high/lows. At best he's a fringe RB1, and at worst he's a Sammy Morris. Just seems like JJ has higher ceiling/floor to me. I'm on the JJJuice right now though, so I'm floating more to the hit side.

I disagree on KJ because he showed a ton of promise in the last half of 2004, then underperformed in 2005. I see some on this board that think he can re-kindle what he had in 2004. I see a RB who will battle injuries and maybe watch a rookie perform well while KJ is wearing street clothes.

 

[MLBrandow]

Absolutely, positively, 100% no question Larry Johnson.Last season, he produced at a historic rate. If he hits this year and duplicates that success, he could be good for 2000 yards and 20+ TDs and single-handedly carry you to a fantasy title.On the other hand, we're really only going off of 8 games worth of data. He has two new tackles, a new fullback, and a brand new (less fantasy-friendly) coach. Other guys who have been projected to good season based on 8 games include McGahee, Kevin Jones, Kevan Barlow, and William Green. If Larry Johnson busts like those guys did (i.e. "misses"), then it's the double whammy, because not only did he bust, but he cost you the #1 overall pick in the process.In terms of risk/reward, Larry Johnson has the largest disparity between his upside and his downside of anyone in the NFL.

Every RB you mentioned looked good late and bloomed on a bad team.Like you said, he was producing at a historic rate. Jim Brown #2 numbers.Unlike the others though, his was no fluke. If there were that much risk, he would not be the consensus top pick.What's his floor? top-10? I can live with that.And his ceiling? 2100/28? I can live with that as well.IMO he has about the same floor as SA, and as such, he doesn't qualify in the discussion of "hit or miss" guys.There's no way he falls off the fantasy radar this year unless he suffers a fluke injury.

 

[duaneok66]

Absolutely, positively, 100% no question Larry Johnson.Last season, he produced at a historic rate. If he hits this year and duplicates that success, he could be good for 2000 yards and 20+ TDs and single-handedly carry you to a fantasy title.On the other hand, we're really only going off of 8 games worth of data. He has two new tackles, a new fullback, and a brand new (less fantasy-friendly) coach. Other guys who have been projected to good season based on 8 games include McGahee, Kevin Jones, Kevan Barlow, and William Green. If Larry Johnson busts like those guys did (i.e. "misses"), then it's the double whammy, because not only did he bust, but he cost you the #1 overall pick in the process.In terms of risk/reward, Larry Johnson has the largest disparity between his upside and his downside of anyone in the NFL.

Every RB you mentioned looked good late and bloomed on a bad team.Like you said, he was producing at a historic rate. Jim Brown #2 numbers.Unlike the others though, his was no fluke. If there were that much risk, he would not be the consensus top pick.What's his floor? top-10? I can live with that.And his ceiling? 2100/28? I can live with that as well.IMO he has about the same floor as SA, and as such, he doesn't qualify in the discussion of "hit or miss" guys.There's no way he falls off the fantasy radar this year unless he suffers a fluke injury.

It's not the same KC team (which has previously been mentioned) . . .

 

[thecardiackid]

QB: Bledsoe

RB: Willis McGahee

WR: Moss

TE: Zach Hilton

DEF: Jets

 

[SSOG]

Absolutely, positively, 100% no question Larry Johnson.Last season, he produced at a historic rate. If he hits this year and duplicates that success, he could be good for 2000 yards and 20+ TDs and single-handedly carry you to a fantasy title.On the other hand, we're really only going off of 8 games worth of data. He has two new tackles, a new fullback, and a brand new (less fantasy-friendly) coach. Other guys who have been projected to good season based on 8 games include McGahee, Kevin Jones, Kevan Barlow, and William Green. If Larry Johnson busts like those guys did (i.e. "misses"), then it's the double whammy, because not only did he bust, but he cost you the #1 overall pick in the process.In terms of risk/reward, Larry Johnson has the largest disparity between his upside and his downside of anyone in the NFL.

Every RB you mentioned looked good late and bloomed on a bad team.Like you said, he was producing at a historic rate. Jim Brown #2 numbers.Unlike the others though, his was no fluke. If there were that much risk, he would not be the consensus top pick.What's his floor? top-10? I can live with that.And his ceiling? 2100/28? I can live with that as well.IMO he has about the same floor as SA, and as such, he doesn't qualify in the discussion of "hit or miss" guys.There's no way he falls off the fantasy radar this year unless he suffers a fluke injury.

Hey, I'm not arguing projections or reasons or anything, I'm just saying that there's a larger disparity between Johnson's ceiling and floor than any other fantasy player. I do think you're underrating his bust risk, though. Kyle Turley hasn't played football in 2 years, and Black was brutal last season. These are the guys who are replacing a Hall of Famer and a quality RT. In addition, Al Saunders and #### Vermeil are gone (if you don't think those guys played a factor in Johnson's numbers, need I remind you that they were also behind Holmes and Faulk?).Another point that gets lost in the shuffle is that, while he only started 8 games, he was 7th in the NFL in rushes. His workload was RIDICULOUS, and entirely unsustainable. If you project his carries over the last 8 games over a full season, you get 478 rushes, which would shatter the current league record. I see him getting AT MOST 30 more carries than he did last year- and think it's quite possible that his carries actually decline.Again, I'm not trying to discuss Larry Johnson's projections. I'm high on him, and definitely think he belongs in the big 3. If I had to pick between them, I'd probably lean towards taking LJ #1 overall (although I'd have to think about it some more). I'm just saying, in terms of disparity between their ceiling and floor, Larry Johnson leads the pack.

 

[MLBrandow]

add to Levineople don't understand that he has like 40% of the average RB wear for his age.Guys don't just randomly slow down at 32 versus 25, it's because they carried the ball 5000 times.

wrong, you should pick up a copy of PFP 2006 (Pro Football Prospectus)they did a detailed study of what you just typed and proved that age, not weight, is the deciding factor . . .

I'd have to read the article, but since I'm not the type to go spend money on fantasy footbal "insider" information, I doubt I ever will.That said, anyone who has to do a "detailed study" to legitimize that there is an inverse correlation between age and productivity needn't be writing fantasy football articles.Barber is still in his prime, has very low wear per his peers, has a proven track record, and has a good supporting cast.

 

[duaneok66]

add to Levineople don't understand that he has like 40% of the average RB wear for his age.Guys don't just randomly slow down at 32 versus 25, it's because they carried the ball 5000 times.

wrong, you should pick up a copy of PFP 2006 (Pro Football Prospectus)they did a detailed study of what you just typed and proved that age, not weight, is the deciding factor . . .

I'd have to read the article, but since I'm not the type to go spend money on fantasy footbal "insider" information, I doubt I ever will.That said, anyone who has to do a "detailed study" to legitimize that there is an inverse correlation between age and productivity needn't be writing fantasy football articles.Barber is still in his prime, has very low wear per his peers, has a proven track record, and has a good supporting cast.

it wasn't a fantasy football article, it was merely a football article . . . other studies have been done as well, one of your guys (I think) did a similar one at pro football reference.com . . .

 

[MLBrandow]

Hey, I'm not arguing projections or reasons or anything, I'm just saying that there's a larger disparity between Johnson's ceiling and floor than any other fantasy player. I do think you're underrating his bust risk, though. Kyle Turley hasn't played football in 2 years, and Black was brutal last season. These are the guys who are replacing a Hall of Famer and a quality RT. In addition, Al Saunders and #### Vermeil are gone (if you don't think those guys played a factor in Johnson's numbers, need I remind you that they were also behind Holmes and Faulk?).Another point that gets lost in the shuffle is that, while he only started 8 games, he was 7th in the NFL in rushing. I see him getting AT MOST 30 more carries than he did last year- and think it's quite possible that his carries actually decline.Again, I'm not trying to discuss Larry Johnson's projections. I'm high on him, and definitely think he belongs in the big 3. If I had to pick between them, I'd probably lean towards taking LJ #1 overall (although I'd have to think about it some more). I'm just saying, in terms of disparity between their ceiling and floor, Larry Johnson leads the pack.

That is the nature of the beast though when both are so high. He could rush for 2300/30 and also hit around 1400/15., that's an 900/15 difference, and it probably is the largest h/l box of RBs this year (by a lot).However, since his floor would still be top-10, I don't think it qualifies for the sake of this discussion.I think we are agreeing with each other on two sides of the same coin. Whether it lands heads or tails, it's still a silver dollar.

 

[SSOG]

add to Levineople don't understand that he has like 40% of the average RB wear for his age.Guys don't just randomly slow down at 32 versus 25, it's because they carried the ball 5000 times.

wrong, you should pick up a copy of PFP 2006 (Pro Football Prospectus)they did a detailed study of what you just typed and proved that age, not weight, is the deciding factor . . .

I'd have to read the article, but since I'm not the type to go spend money on fantasy footbal "insider" information, I doubt I ever will.That said, anyone who has to do a "detailed study" to legitimize that there is an inverse correlation between age and productivity needn't be writing fantasy football articles.Barber is still in his prime, has very low wear per his peers, has a proven track record, and has a good supporting cast.

PFP is written by the good folks over at www.footballoutsiders.com. I'd call them real NFL analysts first, and fantasy football people second. I think FF is just something they do to pay the bills, to be honest.With that said, I give a ton of credence to their numbers and their studies. Their numbers were the only things in the entire world (so far as I know) that projected a playoff season from San Diego before the 2004 season opened. They've also been really good at calling when elite RBs are about to fall off the face of the planet, historically.Without having read the book, I really can't say much more than that.

 

[SSOG]

Hey, I'm not arguing projections or reasons or anything, I'm just saying that there's a larger disparity between Johnson's ceiling and floor than any other fantasy player. I do think you're underrating his bust risk, though. Kyle Turley hasn't played football in 2 years, and Black was brutal last season. These are the guys who are replacing a Hall of Famer and a quality RT. In addition, Al Saunders and #### Vermeil are gone (if you don't think those guys played a factor in Johnson's numbers, need I remind you that they were also behind Holmes and Faulk?).Another point that gets lost in the shuffle is that, while he only started 8 games, he was 7th in the NFL in rushing. I see him getting AT MOST 30 more carries than he did last year- and think it's quite possible that his carries actually decline.Again, I'm not trying to discuss Larry Johnson's projections. I'm high on him, and definitely think he belongs in the big 3. If I had to pick between them, I'd probably lean towards taking LJ #1 overall (although I'd have to think about it some more). I'm just saying, in terms of disparity between their ceiling and floor, Larry Johnson leads the pack.

That is the nature of the beast though when both are so high. He could rush for 2300/30 and also hit around 1400/15., that's an 900/15 difference, and it probably is the largest h/l box of RBs this year (by a lot).However, since his floor would still be top-10, I don't think it qualifies for the sake of this discussion.I think we are agreeing with each other on two sides of the same coin. Whether it lands heads or tails, it's still a silver dollar.

If you want to talk about reasonable expectations, I have his ceiling at 1700/20 and his floor at 1400/14. If we're talking actual boom or bust potential (not counting injuries), though, I wouldn't be surprised to see him run for either 2000/25 or 900/8.

 

[MLBrandow]

it wasn't a fantasy football article, it was merely a football article . . . other studies have been done as well, one of your guys (I think) did a similar one at pro football reference.com . . .

Regardless, such a subjective study can only be marginally conclusive. I'm sure if I had the numbers in front of me I could find a number of exceptions/holes/counterarguments.At that, this is entirely a moot point, as Barber's only knocks are "I think he's too old" and "he might get hurt."Jerry Rice played well into his 60s, and I think George Blanda is still playing football.I consider statistical analysis on football matters to be much like supreme court cases. Yes you can spot trends in rulings and case-types and categories, but in the end, you have to look at each case individually as a whole, and while all the conventional signs point to a sharp decline in Barber's production, there's simply nothing other than a tangential scatter-plot of similar RBs to discredit him.I don't buy it, and I don't think many do with his ADP at RB5.

 

[duaneok66]

it wasn't a fantasy football article, it was merely a football article . . . other studies have been done as well, one of your guys (I think) did a similar one at pro football reference.com . . .

Regardless, such a subjective study can only be marginally conclusive. I'm sure if I had the numbers in front of me I could find a number of exceptions/holes/counterarguments.At that, this is entirely a moot point, as Barber's only knocks are "I think he's too old" and "he might get hurt."Jerry Rice played well into his 60s, and I think George Blanda is still playing football.I consider statistical analysis on football matters to be much like supreme court cases. Yes you can spot trends in rulings and case-types and categories, but in the end, you have to look at each case individually as a whole, and while all the conventional signs point to a sharp decline in Barber's production, there's simply nothing other than a tangential scatter-plot of similar RBs to discredit him.I don't buy it, and I don't think many do with his ADP at RB5.

We just agree to disagree . . . faced with some evidence that there is a chance of decline, I would use the #5 on a younger back . . . that's the basis of fantasy football: the freedom of choice . . .

 

[Marc Levin]

yeah, there's no evidence stating that backs slow down in their thirties . . .

He just turned 31 in April.What is the evidence that RBs slow down the year they turn 31.There is TONS of evidence that after RBs START TO slow down after 30. There is NO evidence that it happens when they turn 31.Carry on.

 

[duaneok66]

yeah, there's no evidence stating that backs slow down in their thirties . . .

He just turned 31 in April.What is the evidence that RBs slow down the year they turn 31.There is TONS of evidence that after RBs START TO slow down after 30. There is NO evidence that it happens when they turn 31.Carry on.

that's already been discussed earlier in the thread . . . there have been two separate studies on it . . . why would they pick 30 if the actual number was 32??

 

[Marc Levin]

PFP is written by the good folks over at www.footballoutsiders.com. I'd call them real NFL analysts first, and fantasy football people second.

Agreed.Those guys know what they are doing.

 

[Marc Levin]

faced with some evidence that there is a chance of decline, I would use the #5 on a younger back . . . that's the basis of fantasy football: the freedom of choice . . .

??What evidence?Regardless, you choosing not to take him at #5 does not make Barber "hit or miss"Even with a decline in productivity over the last two years, he stays top-12, which is RB1 territory, meaning he is not a "miss."'He might not be worth his ADP, but that is a different argument.

 

[Marc Levin]

yeah, there's no evidence stating that backs slow down in their thirties . . .

He just turned 31 in April.What is the evidence that RBs slow down the year they turn 31.There is TONS of evidence that after RBs START TO slow down after 30. There is NO evidence that it happens when they turn 31.Carry on.

that's already been discussed earlier in the thread . . . there have been two separate studies on it . . . why would they pick 30 if the actual number was 32??

They picked 30 as the number to START counting from b/c that is the age RBs START TO break down.They ALSO took a study of ALL RBs - including veteran backups - not "RBs coming off top-5 fantasy finishes two years in a row"That study is not an end-all/be-all - or a good reason to think Tiki falls off the planet - and specifically that he falls off th eplanet THIS year.

 

[duaneok66]

faced with some evidence that there is a chance of decline, I would use the #5 on a younger back . . . that's the basis of fantasy football: the freedom of choice . . .

??What evidence?Regardless, you choosing not to take him at #5 does not make Barber "hit or miss"Even with a decline in productivity over the last two years, he stays top-12, which is RB1 territory, meaning he is not a "miss."'He might not be worth his ADP, but that is a different argument.

agreed . . . I don't think he's a miss, I never stated that, I just wouldn't take him at #5 . . . I wouldn't take Manning or a WR either . . .

 

[duaneok66]

yeah, there's no evidence stating that backs slow down in their thirties . . .

He just turned 31 in April.What is the evidence that RBs slow down the year they turn 31.There is TONS of evidence that after RBs START TO slow down after 30. There is NO evidence that it happens when they turn 31.Carry on.

that's already been discussed earlier in the thread . . . there have been two separate studies on it . . . why would they pick 30 if the actual number was 32??

They picked 30 as the number to START counting from b/c that is the age RBs START TO break down.They ALSO took a study of ALL RBs - including veteran backups - not "RBs coming off top-5 fantasy finishes two years in a row"That study is not an end-all/be-all - or a good reason to think Tiki falls off the planet - and specifically that he falls off th eplanet THIS year.

no one ever said it was . . . it is SOME evidence that he MAY fall off . . . it could be this year, it could be 2007 or 2008 . . .it's your nickel at #5 . . .

 

[Marc Levin]

then we are in agreement, duaneok66

I'd still take him #5 (ESPECIALLY in a PPR League), but that is, as we are in agreement, a different issue than hit or miss.

 

[Marc Levin]

I also believe you cannot discount the long time proven trend of older running backs declining production. This presents some sort of risk and consideration when combined with all of the other factors I have listed. Barber is not a good top 5 Fantasy pick, and one runs the risk of losing their league by drafting him there.

????How is that a miss - in 2002 he was 7th and 2004 he was 4th. He doesn't have to put up his 2006 numbers to be a top-10/12 RB.Taking a top-10/12 RB at #5 is certainly not a tremendous risk of losing your league* or else everyone who drafts after #5 risks losing their league.* - which is an extremely naive perspective in the first place - I do NOT need to hit on my 1st round pick to win my league.

 

[duaneok66]

I also believe you cannot discount the long time proven trend of older running backs declining production. This presents some sort of risk and consideration when combined with all of the other factors I have listed. Barber is not a good top 5 Fantasy pick, and one runs the risk of losing their league by drafting him there.

????How is that a miss - in 2002 he was 7th and 2004 he was 4th. He doesn't have to put up his 2006 numbers to be a top-10/12 RB.Taking a top-10/12 RB at #5 is certainly not a tremendous risk of losing your league* or else everyone who drafts after #5 risks losing their league.* - which is an extremely naive perspective in the first place - I do NOT need to hit on my 1st round pick to win my league.

excellent point . . . I am not a Barber fan this year, but it even if you take him and his production slides, that won't lose you the league . . . that's why you draft 13 (or more) players . . .

 

[Marc Levin]

I would wager good money that the owner who picks in the top 5, and gets the numbers of a top 10/12 RB with that top 5 pick, will not win his league very often. Probably less than 5% of the time. In fact, it shows poor drafting...

I'll take all your money here and now.I went to the Super Bowl in my big money, decade old, highly competitive, 12-team, standard performance scoring league three years in a row, and won it back to back, after losing my first round pick to season ending injury within the first four weeks of the season - that happened all three years.

Two years ago, in another league, I had Deuce McAllister gone for the year as my first round RB1 and Willie Green as my RB2 - I won that league.

The bolded statement above is (I hope) almost pure - or else extremely naive about the game of FF. If you were serious, we need to have a talk about the fact that playing fantasy football is a hellofa lot more than the 10 minutes it takes to get through round one.

Edit to add - I had top-5 picks in every draft mentioned above.

 

[Mario Kart]

It is what it is =

 

[shadow2k]

Absolutely, positively, 100% no question Larry Johnson.Last season, he produced at a historic rate. If he hits this year and duplicates that success, he could be good for 2000 yards and 20+ TDs and single-handedly carry you to a fantasy title.On the other hand, we're really only going off of 8 games worth of data. He has two new tackles, a new fullback, and a brand new (less fantasy-friendly) coach. Other guys who have been projected to good season based on 8 games include McGahee, Kevin Jones, Kevan Barlow, and William Green. If Larry Johnson busts like those guys did (i.e. "misses"), then it's the double whammy, because not only did he bust, but he cost you the #1 overall pick in the process.In terms of risk/reward, Larry Johnson has the largest disparity between his upside and his downside of anyone in the NFL.

Every RB you mentioned looked good late and bloomed on a bad team.Like you said, he was producing at a historic rate. Jim Brown #2 numbers.Unlike the others though, his was no fluke. If there were that much risk, he would not be the consensus top pick.What's his floor? top-10? I can live with that.And his ceiling? 2100/28? I can live with that as well.IMO he has about the same floor as SA, and as such, he doesn't qualify in the discussion of "hit or miss" guys.There's no way he falls off the fantasy radar this year unless he suffers a fluke injury.

It's not the same KC team (which has previously been mentioned) . . .

LJ didn't just show promise in 2005 though. If you go back and look at what he did at the end of '04 when he got to play, he was doing pretty damn well. That's why everyone was so high on him going into '05, drafting a backup in round 5.If you look at the only three games LJ started that Roaf didn't play in last year:22/107/227/132/036/211/2If you look at LJ's stats in single back sets last year (Richardson not in):192/1052/4You'll notice that 13 of his TD's came in I-formation, but that says more about the sets they use in goal line formation, not that Richardson was directly responsible for it.135/680 is what LJ did up the middle, and Roaf was the LT. LJ was weakest off the right tackle (39/140), but excelled on the right sideline (36/212).I really don't think the loss of Richardson or Roaf hurts LJ as much as people seem to think. If you watched LJ play last year, you'd have seen that he wasn't always getting gaping holes to run through. He was simply running over people. The guy was angry...that's why people continually say that. You really think that would be how people describe him if he was just following blockers and running through holes? No, LJ was making his own plays much of the time, it wasn't all about the line. We still have two pro-bowlers in Shields and Waters in the middle btw. And from what I've heard from camp, Turley has been impressive.As far as the OC goes...Solari was our OL coach for the past 9yrs. While Herm and Solari are not Vermiel and Saunders...would you really jack with an offense that has been one of the best the past few years? You'd have to be stupid to do that. The OC knows the system, he knows it works, and he'll stick with what he knows. I think that's the exact reason why he was promoted.I think LJ is the highest risk of the top 3, but the highest reward as well. But I just don't see any way he doesn't end up being one of the top backs at the end of the year. And that's from watching him play. He's talented, our line is still better than most teams in the league, and the Chiefs are going to run a lot. You do the math.Personally, I have the #1 pick in my main league. Being a KC homer, there's no way I don't take LJ. But I also don't predict him to rush for 2,300/30, that's silly. I simply believe he'll play the same way he has the past two years and ends up with stats very similar to last year...350/1700/20. His receiving numbers may drop a bit, depending on how much they decide to use Bennett, and if LJ has improved his blocking skills. But unless someone puts up another record breaking season like SA last year...those type of numbers could easily end up being #1.

 

[Lobo237]

I would wager good money that the owner who picks in the top 5, and gets the numbers of a top 10/12 RB with that top 5 pick, will not win his league very often. Probably less than 5% of the time. In fact, it shows poor drafting...

I'll take all your money here and now.I went to the Super Bowl in my big money, decade old, highly competitive, 12-team, standard performance scoring league three years in a row, and won it back to back, after losing my first round pick to season ending injury within the first four weeks of the season - that happened all three years.

Two years ago, in another league, I had Deuce McAllister gone for the year as my first round RB1 and Willie Green as my RB2 - I won that league.

The bolded statement above is (I hope) almost pure - or else extremely naive about the game of FF. If you were serious, we need to have a talk about the fact that playing fantasy football is a hellofa lot more than the 10 minutes it takes to get through round one.

Edit to add - I had top-5 picks in every draft mentioned above.

All this tells me is that I wouldn't be impressed with your fellow leaguemates fantasy football skills. In a game of equal owner's and skill level, somebody else should have won your leagues, period.My point is that if somebody is drafting Barber at a top 5 pick based on what he did last year (as you are), and as I showed you previously, there is plenty of reason not to expect 3 more 200 yard games this year and a 5.2 ypc average with 400+ touches (as this is not the "Barber norm")...and he is over 30 which represents a documented decline risk. So if you are willing to take that risk, then you likely will take many more just like it during the rest of your draft, waiver pickups, trades etc.

You can slice or spin it anyway you like, but if you draft Tiki Barber with a top 5 pick this year, it was poor drafting.

That's a poor statement. You're overlooking the luck factor here big time. You can have the greatest team ever assembled on paper, but if the injury bug hits you you're done for. We've all heard the horror stories and some have lived them of teams being the highest scoring team in the league, but constantly facing the one team that can beat them every week. After all how many Manning owners were screwwed last year when the Colts decided to rest him for the play-offs? Last year for a start-up dynasty draft I drank the McGahee kool-aid and took him in the top 5. I still won my league. Yet I acknowledge match-ups played their part. In the first 4 weeks of the season my starting wrs managed to combine for 2 tds. Later on in the year I survived a game where the trio of wr's I started combined to score 6 pts TOTAL amongst them, or the same as one td is worth in our scoring. I still managed to win that one because my rbs played well, and I got solid qb play. I finished tied for 2nd in the regular season despite being 5th in total scoring. During the regular season I only played 2 opponents who scored more than 100 points against me. After that the next best anyone put up against me was 83. I avoided the top scoring teams for the week almost the entire year.

2 years ago I had the best team in another league by far. I had the highest scoring average, and the best regular season record by wide margins. This team got blown out in the semifinals, because I played the one playoff team that outscored me. If I played either of the other 2 squads I would've been in our Super Bowl, but I didn't. I lost to the one team left alive who outscored me that week.

In a dynasty or keeper league Tiki is a poor pick, but in a redraft league it's as good a choice as any. There are a lot of questions regarding most of the normal top rb's. If you get top 10-12 production out of your #5 pick it's a disappointment sure, but it's not a crippling blow and you don't have nearly such a hard time making that difference back as oppossed to a top pick going down for the season or just falling off the face of the planet for whatever reason.

You don't win your league in the first round. If that was the case we would've all been handing the Tomlinson and Alexander owners the trophy last year. After all those two dragged some teams that would be typically mediocre or poor into the thick of the play-off races of a lot of leagues by themselves last year. Top 10-or top 12 numbers are acceptable for a rb #1 on just about any team. The only way it's not is if your playing in a 8 or less team league. If Tiki (hypothetically) finishing as rb #10 when you drafted him 5th overall cripples your team you royally screwed up your draft elsewhere.

 

[fsufan]

Absolutely, positively, 100% no question Larry Johnson.Last season, he produced at a historic rate. If he hits this year and duplicates that success, he could be good for 2000 yards and 20+ TDs and single-handedly carry you to a fantasy title.On the other hand, we're really only going off of 8 games worth of data. He has two new tackles, a new fullback, and a brand new (less fantasy-friendly) coach. Other guys who have been projected to good season based on 8 games include McGahee, Kevin Jones, Kevan Barlow, and William Green. If Larry Johnson busts like those guys did (i.e. "misses"), then it's the double whammy, because not only did he bust, but he cost you the #1 overall pick in the process.In terms of risk/reward, Larry Johnson has the largest disparity between his upside and his downside of anyone in the NFL.

 

[Sabertooth]

Chester Taylor

Drew Brees

Drew Bennett

Kellen Winslow II

 

[Two Deep]

Darrell Jackson

 

[nygiants56]

Absolutely, positively, 100% no question Larry Johnson.

Last season, he produced at a historic rate. If he hits this year and duplicates that success, he could be good for 2000 yards and 20+ TDs and single-handedly carry you to a fantasy title.

On the other hand, we're really only going off of 8 games worth of data. He has two new tackles, a new fullback, and a brand new (less fantasy-friendly) coach. Other guys who have been projected to good season based on 8 games include McGahee, Kevin Jones, Kevan Barlow, and William Green. If Larry Johnson busts like those guys did (i.e. "misses"), then it's the double whammy, because not only did he bust, but he cost you the #1 overall pick in the process.

In terms of risk/reward, Larry Johnson has the largest disparity between his upside and his downside of anyone in the NFL.

Not so fast, my friend! -Lee CorsoWillie Roaf isn't fully retired just yet..rumors coming from the coaching staff AND Roaf, are hinting that he's just not all that fond of training camp, and will report in the final week of preseason..

Even without Roaf, the Chiefs own two of the best blocking TE's in football, Tony Gonzalez and Jason Dunn..both will MORE than make up for the loss of Roaf..I'm not saying they're better than Roaf, but they're not chopped liver, either..this team will move the ball at will on anyone..

as far as a 'less-fantasy friendly coach', how can you make that judgement when you've never seen a single play called by him?!? you have no basis on which to put your ideas on..this coach has been quoted as saying he wants to pass the ball MORE and run a bit less, to balance out the attack..that'll really keep defenses from keying on LJ, and, it'll make a top 15 WR out of Kennison, and, it could help Trent Green's stats tremendously....Herm Edwards wanted to throw the ball a lot in NY, he just couldn't because of Pennington's lack of arm strength, so you saw 5-yard outs, and 4 yard slants...

in 3 starts last year WITHOUT Roaf, LJ ran for an avg of 150 yards per game, two 100 (107 yards, 132 yards) yard games, and one 200+ yard game...so I'm not so sure missing Roaf is THAT big of a deal..

my hit or miss players would include Phil Rivers, Eli Manning ( he'll go very high in many drafts, I'm not sure he's to be considered a top fantasy QB just yet)..also add Westbrook to that list..the Eagles face a fairly easy schedule during the first half of the season, and then play one of the hardest schedules against the run, during the final 8 weeks..including games against Wash, Giants, Dallas, Atlanta during fantasy playoff time..Westbrook has never been able to stay healthy and is too small to 'touch' the ball 20-25 times per game. As a bigtime tease, many people consider a top RB..he could be, if he stays healthy.

big risk, big reward or big loss type of player..

 

[FUBAR]

Addai / Rhodes, Ahman Green, Culpepper, Soldier, Dayne

 

[Warhogs]

Mine are:

Kurt Warner - I know he is not drafted real early but I think he could potentially give you top 3 numbers as a ceiling or be sitting on the bench watching Leinart by season end.

Julius Jones - I think whomever is RB in Dallas is going to have a lot of success with Glenn and TO stretching the field. The Dallas running game could easily be top 5. The question is does Julius get the work, is it RBBC or does Barber steal his job. I think Julius could be anywhere from a top 5 RB to losing his job to Barber.

Terrell Owens - He has the ability to be the #1 WR in fantasy football. He also has the ability to get suspended by his own team.

Ben Watson - A lot of people are high on him and think he really steps up and catches a lot more balls in NE. He has skills and could be a top 3 TE or he could hover around a bottom tier starter or quality backup.

I did not really pick a defense or kicker.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Mine are:Kurt Warner - I know he is not drafted real early but I think he could potentially give you top 3 numbers as a ceiling or be sitting on the bench watching Leinart by season end.Julius Jones - I think whomever is RB in Dallas is going to have a lot of success with Glenn and TO stretching the field. The Dallas running game could easily be top 5. The question is does Julius get the work, is it RBBC or does Barber steal his job. I think Julius could be anywhere from a top 5 RB to losing his job to Barber.Terrell Owens - He has the ability to be the #1 WR in fantasy football. He also has the ability to get suspended by his own team.Ben Watson - A lot of people are high on him and think he really steps up and catches a lot more balls in NE. He has skills and could be a top 3 TE or he could hover around a bottom tier starter or quality backup.I did not really pick a defense or kicker.

Nice thoughts guys.At RB Chester Taylor, Julius Jones, and Kevin Jones are at the top of my list.

 

[fightingillini]

In round one, owners who draft Barber, Caddy, Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson run the biggest risk of losing their league with those picks.

Complete disagree. All these guys should get 300+ touches, which will keep them in the top 15 at the worst. Caddy, R Brown and SJax are being drafted around picks 8-11.......You must be thinking that all these guys will get injured. Just remember, ANY RB can get injured.

 

[Hue G]

Here's mine

QB - Bulger, if he can stay healthy he could be huge

RB - Bell, he could end up an absolute stud or a 3rd down back harldey even worth a roster spot on afantasy team.

WR - Javon Wallker, we'll see how he bounces back from his injury.

TE - Ben Watson, he could be a top 5 TE or just a bye week fill in.

 

[Jayded]

QB - Drew Brees - Was it LT and Gates that really made him look like a star and can Reggie, Deuce, and Horn keep up the shine on him or not?

RB - Dom Davis - His knee is down to nearly zero cartilage. If he can take the pain and play he could be a top back in PPR leagues with the addition of Moulds and Putzier to stretch the defense. He could also go out early in the season and never return.

WR - Randy Moss - Brooks will determine his fate after a few non-Moss like years.

TE - Tony Gonzalez - If LJ and the RBs steal his TDs again he could still finish top 10 again, but below his elite status of a few years ago. If he catches a few more TDs, he resumes a role in the top tier of TEs.