Who's the biggest hit or miss in 2006? (1 Viewer)

[SSOG]

I think you are giving a guy who won 3 consecutive league titles after losing his top 5 pick to injury, far too much credit for "luck", and not enough credit for obviously being a more skilled fantasy player than his opponents in that league.

Manning owners should have been prepared far in advance for that, especially after watching the Colts go undefeated for much of the NFL season. It won't happen again this year for Indy with their offseason player losses.

He only won two consecutive. He made the Super Bowl in the third. Regardless, that's irrelevant. *OF COURSE* he's more skilled than his fantasy peers. Even if he hadn't lost his 1st-round RBs, he'd still be more skilled than his fantasy peers.By dismissing Levin like you have, you're basically saying "if all of the owners in your league are better than you, then having a top-5 pick and getting a top-10 RB will cost you the league". Well, of course if you get a top-10 RB it will cost you your league- because you're an inferior owner and you need a top-3 RB to carry your sorry team and keep it from getting blown out. If you're a decent fantasy player, though, the first round is nothing more than one pick in a long string.

Let's look at last year's ADP, shall we? Now, if you were sitting at the 12/13 turn and Priest/McAllister were still there, you'd probably take them both. Which, according to your theory, would have automatically lost you the league. Seriously, just wave the white towel right now, the game is over, you give up.

But what if, in the third/fourth turn you grabbed LJ and Steve Smiff, at the fifth/sixth turn you grabbed Santana Moss and Thomas Jones, at the seventh/eighth turn you grabbed Mike Anderson and Carson Palmer, and then at the ninth/tenth you grabbed Joey Galloway and Chris Cooley. Wouldn't you feel really darn silly for giving up after the first few weeks when you secretly had the best team in your league?

Even if you don't have the best team in the league... I think the 2001 New England Patriots proved that the best team in the league isn't always the one that wins the championship. All you have to do is have a top-5 or 6 club, manage to sneak into the playoffs, and then win two or three straight games. Even if you have a mere 35% chance to win against a superior team, that's still a 12.25% chance of winning two in a row, and an almost 5% chance to win the league outright with a DRASTICALLY inferior team.

This whole idea that the draft is won or lost in the first round is ridiculous, because it's just untrue. If it was true, they wouldn't bother even holding the rest of the draft. If it was true that you needed a top-5 RB to be competitive, then there would only be 5-team leagues, because if there was a larger league anyone with the sixth pick or later would just give up.

I don't know if you were being serious or just fishing for a response, but either way, all of your claims are simply absurd.

 

[Marc Levin]

Mine are:Kurt Warner - I know he is not drafted real early but I think he could potentially give you top 3 numbers as a ceiling or be sitting on the bench watching Leinart by season end.Terrell Owens - He has the ability to be the #1 WR in fantasy football. He also has the ability to get suspended by his own team.Ben Watson - A lot of people are high on him and think he really steps up and catches a lot more balls in NE. He has skills and could be a top 3 TE or he could hover around a bottom tier starter or quality backup.I did not really pick a defense or kicker.

I agree with all three of these - I see a Warner/Brooks QB combo as either fantasy gold or fantasy useless. That is a serious low risk, but high reward, fantasy QB pairing.I also agree on Owens - he is either exactly what he was when he was happy with his money sitch (which is a top-3 WR) or he will implode and be worthless.Watson is the biggest X-Factor at TE this year - could easily be top-5/6, could also lose a ton of looks to the WRs, Dan Graham, and to the Tom Brady "spread it around" factor

 

[Marc Levin]

This whole idea that the draft is won or lost in the first round is ridiculous, because it's just untrue. If it was true, they wouldn't bother even holding the rest of the draft. If it was true that you needed a top-5 RB to be competitive, then there would only be 5-team leagues, because if there was a larger league anyone with the sixth pick or later would just give up.I don't know if you were being serious or just fishing for a response, but either way, all of your claims are simply absurd.

Thanks for the defense, SSOG, but I'm done arguing this issue with that individual - no good can come of it, and noone seems to agree with him, so arguing doesn't matter - all we'll end up doing is getting radically off-topic from a decent thread.

 

[MLBrandow]

I would wager good money that the owner who picks in the top 5, and gets the numbers of a top 10/12 RB with that top 5 pick, will not win his league very often. Probably less than 5% of the time. In fact, it shows poor drafting...Factor in that you could take a very safe pick like Peyton Manning that will produce, and also represents a minimal injury risk. The team that takes Manning over Barber will have a much higher percentage chance when it comes to winning his league. We can revisit this after the season and see who was right

I just want to be clear.You would rather avoid a consistent top-10 fantasy RB at #5 for a QB who has never finished #1 at his position. When he threw 49TDs he was second to Culpepper.After Manning, the next QB won't go until the third round. But probably six more RBs go in the 1st round. If you "miss" on Barber, you lose potentially 6 picks of value. When you "miss" on Manning, you lose about four rounds of value.Yet he is more surefire?Which team is better after three rounds?Manning, McGahee, Ward or Barber, Fitzgerald, PalmerYou will not find many suitors for the former.

 

[Marc Levin]

see - this is exactly why I dropped the issue earlier - please drop it now.

This was becoming a really good thread.

 

[Keys Myaths]

In round one, owners who draft Barber, Caddy, Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson run the biggest risk of losing their league with those picks.

In round two, owners who draft Julius or Kevin Jones, Dom Davis and Jamal Lewis run the biggest risk of wasting those picks.

At least half of the owner's in each of these running back groups will be wishing they had taken Manning or a high end wide receiver, instead of these running backs listed.

???Barber is always so underrated. He's finished as the RB 7, 15, 2, 4 the last four years. Where's the risk????

I'll take Barber over Manning or any WR in a heartbeat.

On the rest you are accurate - they have no track record of production to rely on. On Barber, I need to see some HARD reasoning on that (not "I think he's slowing down this year b/c he's 30" or "I think he'll be hurt")

The fact that 90-95% of backs slow down SIGNIFICANTLY at Barber's age doesn't scare you?The fact that he eerily reminds me of Curtis Martin of last year?

I own Barber, and I'm scared to death.

 

[FUBAR]

After Manning, the next QB won't go until the third round. But probably six more RBs go in the 1st round. If you "miss" on Barber, you lose potentially 6 picks of value. When you "miss" on Manning, you lose about four rounds of value.Yet he is more surefire?

Which team is better after three rounds?

Manning, McGahee, Ward or Barber, Fitzgerald, Palmer

You will not find many suitors for the former.

Yes, Payton Manning is more surefire. He may be the safest individual pick in the entire draft.

The rest of your team, OTOH, will be a greater risk.

 

[Marc Levin]

The fact that 90-95% of backs slow down SIGNIFICANTLY at Barber's age doesn't scare you?

That's bullshizzee - RBs START TO slow down sometime AFTER 30 - not WHEN THEY TURN 31.That's a very common misconception.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

DeShaun Foster

This by far the best answer. I can't believe that nobody else has mentioned him. Second place goes to JJ.