Who's the "safest" #1 WR pick (1 Viewer)

[Mystery Achiever]

Marvin Harrison has had double-digit TDs and minimum 1,100 yards EVERY YEAR since 1999.Until he shows even a miniscule decline, I don't see how you even attempt to argue.

Only TO's numbers are similar.

for the first time ever in my ff career, i took the 1st wr off the board. harrison.harrison or ownes =my wr1s in ea. league this year.

 

[Sullie]

I would say Harrison or Wayne and then T.O. if those guys are taken and T.O. is not on suicide watch.

 

[NYGus]

Harrison, not close.

This is the answer.

 

[The Jerk]

BnB, post 93:

Chase is owning this thread. Harrison isn't the best Wr on his team so obviously he's not the safest pick for number 1.

BnB, post 97:

1 Steve Smith wr 2005--2006 290 186 2729 14.67 121 20 413.50

2 Marvin Harrison wr 2005--2006 280 177 2502 14.14 136 24 394.20

3 Chad Johnson wr 2005--2006 309 184 2802 15.23 143 16 381.90

4 Torry Holt wr 2005--2006 341 195 2519 12.92 131 19 366.10

5 Joey Galloway wr 2005--2006 294 145 2344 16.17 101 17 337.70

6 Larry Fitzgerald wr 2005--2006 273 171 2350 13.74 119 16 335.60

7 Anquan Boldin wr 2005--2006 323 185 2601 14.06 121 11 333.40

8 Donald Driver wr 2005--2006 316 177 2511 14.19 116 13 332.00

9 Santana Moss wr 2005--2006 235 139 2273 16.35 96 15 325.70

10 Plaxico Burress wr 2005--2006 287 139 2203 15.85 94 17 322.30

11 Reggie Wayne wr 2005--2006 259 169 2365 13.99 126 14 320.50

12 T.J. Houshmandzadeh wr 2005--2006 248 168 2037 12.12 111 16 312.50

13 Terrell Owens wr 2005--2006 243 132 1943 14.72 94 19 308.50

14 Terry Glenn wr 2005--2006 228 132 2184 16.55 95 13 303.10

15 Hines Ward wr 2005--2006 241 143 1951 13.64 104 17 301.10

16 Lee Evans wr 2005--2006 229 131 2034 15.53 82 15 297.20

Looking at the last two seasons.

 

[Q-Bert]

The Owens responses are very surprising to me, b/c in my mind he's exactly the opposite. Could have a big year and lots of multiple TD games, but with his personal history also has an increased potential to miss games and cost you points, which is the situation this scenario would seek to avoid.

Interesting perspectives...

Go back and look at TO's 11 year history. Aside from his suspension year, where has he missed games or not produced? He's had the same character issues and fought with coaches and teammates all his career and it has NEVER affected his production. Pull up any year of his and show me the history that makes you think he has the potential to miss games. This "fear" of TO is so absurd. One year out of 11 where he gets suspended and now his personality makes him at risk to get suspended again and miss games? Unless you don't want your WR scoring TD's, TO is about the safest pick at WR there is. Harrison and TO are about as safe as they come.

Year - Games Played1999-14

2000-14

2001-16

2002-14

2003-15

2004-14 (also missed two playoff games)

2005-7

2006-16

I count 6 out of the last 8 years where TO has missed games.

 

[gianmarco]

The OP asked for the SAFEST WR1, not who you rank #1. Anybody who replied anything other than Harrison is delusional.

There is huge risk w/ Steve Smith because his QB sucks & he is not a great GL option. TO can melt down at any time. Wayne can be outshined by Harrison (as seen in 05'). Harrison is as consistent a performer as they come, has the top QB, & doesn't take big hits. No brainer.

Please explain the bolded statement and how it relates to his production. You can ignore the 2005 suspension as that was an anomoly in an otherwise super-productive 11 year career.

 

[hickbones]

Steve Smith's the safest #1 WR, because he's most likely to end up as WR1. He's also pretty young, relative to the other players.

why is that?

Clearly a guy who has finished as the #1 WR once in his career is more likely to do it than a guy who has done it 4 times.

Who is more likely to finish #1 at QB this year: Peyton Manning (one time) or Daunte Culpepper (four times)?

I'm not arguing with your conclusions, but I wouldn't use this fact to make a point. Peyton, Harrison and Smith have been on the same team for years while Culpepper can't find a home.

 

[gianmarco]

The Owens responses are very surprising to me, b/c in my mind he's exactly the opposite. Could have a big year and lots of multiple TD games, but with his personal history also has an increased potential to miss games and cost you points, which is the situation this scenario would seek to avoid.

Interesting perspectives...

Go back and look at TO's 11 year history. Aside from his suspension year, where has he missed games or not produced? He's had the same character issues and fought with coaches and teammates all his career and it has NEVER affected his production. Pull up any year of his and show me the history that makes you think he has the potential to miss games. This "fear" of TO is so absurd. One year out of 11 where he gets suspended and now his personality makes him at risk to get suspended again and miss games? Unless you don't want your WR scoring TD's, TO is about the safest pick at WR there is. Harrison and TO are about as safe as they come.

Year - Games Played1999-14

2000-14

2001-16

2002-14

2003-15

2004-14 (also missed two playoff games)

2005-7

2006-16

I count 6 out of the last 8 years where TO has missed games.

Those games were missed because of injury, not because of his personal history. Don't confuse the 2. Now, if you want to say TO is an injury risk, that could somewhat be substantiated. But, if you're saying he might miss games because of his personal problems, that just doesn't have any support with the exception of the Philly organization and the 2005 season.Let me also add that since, 2000, he's been a beast. In those years you listed above:

In 2000--14 games, he STILL finished #3 overall.

In 2001--He finished #2 overall

In 2002--14 games, and yet again he STILL finished #2 overall

In 2003--He had a down year and only finished #12

In 2004--14 games, and yet once again he STILL finished #4 overall

In 2005--suspension year, but was on pace for yet another similar year with 47/763/6 in less than half a season

In 2006--He finished #2 overall

Even missing games, he's had finishes of #2, #2, #2, #3, and #4 in 5 of the last 7 years. Again, one of those seasons was a disaster where he got suspended, but still on pace for a similar finish. One down year in 7 where he ONLY finished #12 overall.

Keep in mind for all those years in SF where he was the #2 or #3 best WR, he had MULTIPLE issues with the coaching staff and with Garcia and others. Yet those distractions have never affected his play on the field.

That's pretty safe to me.

 

[hickbones]

Steve Smith's the safest #1 WR, because he's most likely to end up as WR1. He's also pretty young, relative to the other players.

why is that?

Because he's been unstoppable the last two years whenever he's playing and Delhomme is his QB. He's been a large amount better than Marvin Harrison when Manning is his QB, or Holt when Bulger is his QB, or Johnson when Palmer is his QB, or Owens when Romo is his QB. Look at the past two years. Harrison, e.g., has averaged 83.1 total yards per game in 30 games, excluding weeks 16/17 of 2005 (Harrison barely played). Smith has averaged 99.9 total yards per game over his last 27 games, excluding weeks 1/2 of last year (Smith injury) and weeks 14-16 of last year (Delhomme injury). It's not even very close. And Smith has the same number of TDs in fewer games.

Yes Chase but Harison has put up 8 straight double digit TD seasons...how many in a row does Smith have?

That's great, but it's not going to help you for this year. Emmitt Smith had seven straight years with double digit TDs before dropping to 4 in his eight season in the league. Surely don't have Thomas Jones ranked above Reggie Bush, despite Jones having 1,000 combined yards in three straight years and Bush having done it just once.

Another good point with questionable data. You can't compare the history of player A against player B with no history. BTW, anyone remember why Emmitt had such a dropoff that year?And for the record, I would answer the question as such:

Harrison

Smith

TO

Wayne

CJ

I would be absolutely stoked with any two of those guys on my team. The guy who won our league running away last year scored massive trades and was rolling with Harrison, Smith and TO. It wasn't even fair.

 

[The Deathstar]

Steve Smith's the safest #1 WR, because he's most likely to end up as WR1. He's also pretty young, relative to the other players.

Not sure the above fits the criteria the OP is looking for. He's willing to give up some #1 potential to ensure a top-5 type finish

Is that what safe means?Is the question "most likely to finish in the top five?"If so, I might have to reconsider my answer.

If you consider possible behaviour issues every year and the occasional suicide attempt, TO is as safe as they get

 

[ScoobyDoo]

It appears to be a question of the definition of safety.

I'd say if you take the most extreme definition of the word then the safest WR is Harrison. Hands down.

 

[Keepers]

Harrison ... consistent and healthy

Next would probably say Owens, but is a bit of a health risk.

 

[Random]

It appears to be a question of the definition of safety.I'd say if you take the most extreme definition of the word then the safest WR is Harrison. Hands down.

I'd say the safest one is the one with the least risk.