Who's Your #1? (1 Viewer)

[secretid]

Alright, this topic should probably be tired by now but I don't see much discussion.

No PPR, who's the #1? Discuss.

I'm going with LT. LJ has too many question marks (lost his OC, the best run-block FB in the league, and one of the best run-blocking OTs in the league). As far as SA, I dunno, just not feelin it.

 

[jurb26]

Portis.

 

[Routilla]

LJ

 

[Double_J]

Alright, this topic should probably be tired by now but I don't see much discussion.No PPR, who's the #1? Discuss.I'm going with LT. LJ has too many question marks (lost his OC, the best run-block FB in the league, and one of the best run-blocking OTs in the league). As far as SA, I dunno, just not feelin it.

Don't forget the Madden curse also with SA. In PPR, LT. Without PPR, Portis.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.Besides, last year LJ had to share alot of time with Priest but still managed 20 TDs. Now he's featured.

 

[Blackjacks]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.

this is called denial

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.

this is called denial

It's called research. You're in denial if you think LJ will bust because of the loss of an OL who he had his best games without, an OC who didn't make the difference between a stud and scrub, and an aging FB who can be replaced. At least backup your points with some kind of info.EDIT: And if the loss of an OC honestly worries you that much, you should be biting your nails over Holt. Martz had more of an impact on that pass happy offense than Saunders did on KCs offense.

 

[el-gato-grande]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.

this is called denial

It's called research. You're in denial if you think LJ will bust because of the loss of an OL who he had his best games without, an OC who didn't make the difference between a stud and scrub, and an aging FB who can be replaced. Please, keep the stupid neanderthal comments to yourself. At least backup your points with some kind of info.EDIT: And if the loss of an OC honestly worries you that much, you should be biting your nails over Holt. Martz had more of an impact on that pass happy offense than Saunders did on KCs offense.

<_< Let's be excellent to each other and not post personal attacks. That is not what we do on this board and the mods will be quick to point that out.

 

[pinequick]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.

this is called denial

It's called research. You're in denial if you think LJ will bust because of the loss of an OL who he had his best games without, an OC who didn't make the difference between a stud and scrub, and an aging FB who can be replaced. Please, keep the stupid neanderthal comments to yourself. At least backup your points with some kind of info.EDIT: And if the loss of an OC honestly worries you that much, you should be biting your nails over Holt. Martz had more of an impact on that pass happy offense than Saunders did on KCs offense.

<_< Let's be excellent to each other and not post personal attacks. That is not what we do on this board and the mods will be quick to point that out.

:reported:

 

[TheFanatic]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.

this is called denial

It's called research. You're in denial if you think LJ will bust because of the loss of an OL who he had his best games without, an OC who didn't make the difference between a stud and scrub, and an aging FB who can be replaced. At least backup your points with some kind of info.EDIT: And if the loss of an OC honestly worries you that much, you should be biting your nails over Holt. Martz had more of an impact on that pass happy offense than Saunders did on KCs offense.

Simmer down there LJ owner. And you are an LJ owner. Hate to break it to you but LJ will be looking up at Portis in the FFB ranking. You think that the loss of the OC is no big deal? Who calls the plays? Who calls LJ's number every time the Chiefs are near the goal line? Saunders did. Edwards has NEVER used a RB around the goal line as much as Vermiel and Saunders have both with the Rams and the Chiefs. Now Saunders is calling the plays in Washington. Guess who's going to be punching it in from inside the 5 every time this year? Portis. Can't say the same for KC. They have a pretty good TE in KC that they might actually use now that Saunders isn't calling the plays.....BTW, I don't own either Portis or LJ. Never have. Portis will be the #1 RB this year. Good luck with the name calling tho. Seems to me that you won't be on this board much longer if you fly off the handle so easily after a single comment to the contrary to your position. I hear that stuff is cool at FFToday, but here it's not allowed....

 

[pinequick]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.

this is called denial

It's called research. You're in denial if you think LJ will bust because of the loss of an OL who he had his best games without, an OC who didn't make the difference between a stud and scrub, and an aging FB who can be replaced. At least backup your points with some kind of info.EDIT: And if the loss of an OC honestly worries you that much, you should be biting your nails over Holt. Martz had more of an impact on that pass happy offense than Saunders did on KCs offense.

Simmer down there LJ owner. And you are an LJ owner. Hate to break it to you but LJ will be looking up at Portis in the FFB ranking. You think that the loss of the OC is no big deal? Who calls the plays? Who calls LJ's number every time the Chiefs are near the goal line? Saunders did. Edwards has NEVER used a RB around the goal line as much as Vermiel and Saunders have both with the Rams and the Chiefs. Now Saunders is calling the plays in Washington. Guess who's going to be punching it in from inside the 5 every time this year? Portis. Can't say the same for KC. They have a pretty good TE in KC that they might actually use now that Saunders isn't calling the plays.....BTW, I don't own either Portis or LJ. Never have. Portis will be the #1 RB this year. Good luck with the name calling tho. Seems to me that you won't be on this board much longer if you fly off the handle so easily after a single comment to the contrary to your position. I hear that stuff is cool at FFToday, but here it's not allowed....

Don't egg him on--he edited his post. . .BTW, LJ definitely takes a hit.

 

[joffer]

You think that the loss of the OC is no big deal? Who calls the plays? Who calls LJ's number every time the Chiefs are near the goal line?

the guy who coached the offensive line, helped design their running game, and is now calling the plays

 

[ConstruxBoy]

LT2

 

[Eric]

LJ, no doubt about it.

 

[prosopis]

LJ

 

[MLBrandow]

I have LJ about 50 points over Portis, who is about 40 points over LT.

I have SA at RB9.

Those who shun LJ over the loss of Richardson, without whom he runs significantly better (as do most 230lb backs), and with the loss of Saunders, who was replaced by his protege, are going to be sad.

 

[The Kansas Comet]

As it stands right now, I would probably pick Larry Johnson #1 overall. While Roaf's retirement hurts a bit, I still think that the o-line is good enough to handle it (as they were last year in the games he missed). I also think we'll see more from LJ in the passing game than we did last year. Losing Richardson hurts too, but not so much as the losses the next two RB's suffered in the off-season.

I would pick Alexander next as he's a model of consistency, and he doesn't play in the toughest division in the NFL. Throw is some games against some less than stellar teams outside of the division (Oakland, Green Bay, Minnesota), and he should have another very good year. The loss of Hutchinson shouldn't be downplayed, though, and that is why I would put him below LJ.

Tomlinson would be my third pick. If Brees was back, I would strongly consider him at #1, but until Rivers shows he can keep teams honest, LT won't see anything but 8-man fronts, and may spend a number of pass plays picking up blitzes. Plus, I think the Chargers' o-line is very thin and that the GM didn't do enough to address it in the off-season. That said, if Rivers is as smart as the Chargers think he is and can do the job sooner rather than later, this might be a bargain pick. But for now LT is at 3 for me.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I like Alexander. Best offense of the 3 and the nicest looking run schedule. Should once again set him up for a lot of scoring opportunities.

 

[MLBrandow]

I like Alexander. Best offense of the 3 and the nicest looking run schedule. Should once again set him up for a lot of scoring opportunities.

Call me crazy, but I really feel like his numbers were exaggerated due to the heavy injuries to the Seahawks WR corps last year.Who knows though. As scary as that Seahawks D looks this year, he could be toting the rock 30 times a game just to eat up the clock.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I like Alexander. Best offense of the 3 and the nicest looking run schedule. Should once again set him up for a lot of scoring opportunities.

Call me crazy, but I really feel like his numbers were exaggerated due to the heavy injuries to the Seahawks WR corps last year.Who knows though. As scary as that Seahawks D looks this year, he could be toting the rock 30 times a game just to eat up the clock.

That's what I see. Looking at Seattle's schedule, it appears in a lot of games they'll either be up early or in a high scoring affair. So either Alexander has a lot of TD opportunities or he gets the ball at the end of the game to run out the clock. They play very few complete teams. Most of their opponents are lacking on one side of the ball.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Simmer down there LJ owner. And you are an LJ owner. Hate to break it to you but LJ will be looking up at Portis in the FFB ranking. You think that the loss of the OC is no big deal? Who calls the plays? Who calls LJ's number every time the Chiefs are near the goal line? Saunders did. Edwards has NEVER used a RB around the goal line as much as Vermiel and Saunders have both with the Rams and the Chiefs. Now Saunders is calling the plays in Washington. Guess who's going to be punching it in from inside the 5 every time this year? Portis. Can't say the same for KC. They have a pretty good TE in KC that they might actually use now that Saunders isn't calling the plays.....BTW, I don't own either Portis or LJ. Never have. Portis will be the #1 RB this year. Good luck with the name calling tho. Seems to me that you won't be on this board much longer if you fly off the handle so easily after a single comment to the contrary to your position. I hear that stuff is cool at FFToday, but here it's not allowed....

Actually I'm not an LJ owner.And I do think he'll take a hit from the losses, but not such a major blow that he wont be number one. If the loss of Saunders worries you that much then, logically, you'd be down on Holt too?Sure, the loss of Saunders might mean they're not as run heavy. But with LJs ability he's going to be used no matter who the OC is. And about Gonzalez being used more now that they have a different OC, I have to disagree here. With the loss of Roaf and Richardson I think Gonzalez will have to stay in and block just as often if not more than he did last year.And as I already stated in a post that was deleted, I didn't mean to insult anyone and I'm sorry, but it is offensive to me when someone insults my post, which was thought out and rational. If you disagree, great, I love to hear other people's opinions and maybe they even change mine. But please don't insult me and provide no reason for it. And by the way, I didn't "fly off the handle." And as pinequick said, please don't try to further an argument. I don't want to fight anymore than you or anyone else does.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I don't see Alexander breaking the TD record again, and I think we have an idea of Tomlinson's best-case scenario numbers (they're good, but not what LJ accomplished in the last half of 2005).

I think LJ has a lot of risk, but definitely the most potential reward. If you have the top pick, why not reach for the sky? I'd rather be the guy who gave it a shot and was somewhat disappointed in his numbers than the guy who let him go and had to watch him tear up the league again wondering "Why didn't I remember what I saw last year?"

 

[secretid]

I keep hearing all the Portis love. Someone want to fill me in on why he's going to beat out LJ?

The Roaf thing has been beat to death but LJ had his best games with Roaf out while also playing the very worst run defenses in the league. I suppose you could take that as an argument for a minimal drop in production.

I'm leaning LJ for the local TV factor (I'm in the KC area).

 

[Double_J]

I keep hearing all the Portis love. Someone want to fill me in on why he's going to beat out LJ?The Roaf thing has been beat to death but LJ had his best games with Roaf out while also playing the very worst run defenses in the league. I suppose you could take that as an argument for a minimal drop in production.I'm leaning LJ for the local TV factor (I'm in the KC area).

Well my reasoning is pretty simple. Portis is much more proven than LJ is. In his 4 years in the league he has rushed for over 1500 yards 3 times. The other year he got hurt and still ran for 1315. I guess everyone is forgetting what a bust LJ was until the last half of the season last year. Remember Vermeil calling him a baby and saying he needed to take the diapers off? Now all of a sudden he's the best player in the league? Sorry, I have a hard time believing that for some reason. Also Portis has been raving about the new offense with Saunders calling the plays. You know, the same guy that made Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson look amazing? Well, Portis was amazing before him and will be even better with him this season. With the additions at the WR position, it should help to open up the running game more as well. All of those guys are safe picks, I just happen to think that Portis will have a break out year.

 

[shadow2k]

I keep hearing all the Portis love. Someone want to fill me in on why he's going to beat out LJ?The Roaf thing has been beat to death but LJ had his best games with Roaf out while also playing the very worst run defenses in the league. I suppose you could take that as an argument for a minimal drop in production.I'm leaning LJ for the local TV factor (I'm in the KC area).

Well my reasoning is pretty simple. Portis is much more proven than LJ is. In his 4 years in the league he has rushed for over 1500 yards 3 times. The other year he got hurt and still ran for 1315. I guess everyone is forgetting what a bust LJ was until the last half of the season last year. Remember Vermeil calling him a baby and saying he needed to take the diapers off? Now all of a sudden he's the best player in the league? Sorry, I have a hard time believing that for some reason. Also Portis has been raving about the new offense with Saunders calling the plays. You know, the same guy that made Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson look amazing? Well, Portis was amazing before him and will be even better with him this season. With the additions at the WR position, it should help to open up the running game more as well. All of those guys are safe picks, I just happen to think that Portis will have a break out year.

Uhh...sorry man, I live in KC. Nobody ever called him a bust. They were making fun of him because he was crying about how good he was, and how he should start. The joke was, that we already had one of the best RB's in the league, and he needed to shut up and wait his turn.LJ didn't play much at all (20 att, 4.2ypc) his rookie year. But he played a bit in '04 when Priest went down. 581/9 TD's 4.8ypc...on top of his 22/278/2 TD's. That's a bust? I wonder why so many people were drafting a bust in round 5 on the off chance that Priest would go down...Unless you watched LJ play, you can't really know what some of us aren't that worried about all the changes. I think Portis will have a very good year with Saunders. He's the safe pick. But LJ's the sexy pick, because some of us have been watching him take out all that anger on his would-be tacklers for the last two years. The guy is a beast. He doesn't need 6ft lanes to make yards...he knocks the defenders down, and drags the rest.LJ will outscore Portis, carry for carry, for the third year in a row. And I'd bet that LJ get's more carries to top it off. Regardless of who's blocking for him.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Portis.

I'm wearing a wig, sash, and a big ole pair of jewish grandma sunglasses to the draft today. You don't think I'll be tipping my hand with the #4 pick do you?

 

[jurb26]

Portis.

I'm wearing a wig, sash, and a big ole pair of jewish grandma sunglasses to the draft today. You don't think I'll be tipping my hand with the #4 pick do you?

I'll bet they all just think you're trying to break their concentration and get one of SA, LT or LJ to fall...

 

[Blackjacks]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.

this is called denial

It's called research. You're in denial if you think LJ will bust because of the loss of an OL who he had his best games without, an OC who didn't make the difference between a stud and scrub, and an aging FB who can be replaced. At least backup your points with some kind of info.EDIT: And if the loss of an OC honestly worries you that much, you should be biting your nails over Holt. Martz had more of an impact on that pass happy offense than Saunders did on KCs offense.

Priest #'s without Roafweek 1 Priest 85 and 1week 2 " " 75 and 1week 3 " " 61 and 0week 4 " " 84 and 1week 5 " " 18 and 1week 6 " " 90 and 2week 7 " " 38 and 0LJ's #'s without Roaf110 and 241 and 113 and 034 and 053 and 093 and 155 and 0After this is when Roaf came back in to the system and LJ went off. The rushing game was good without Roaf but not great, the ypc really jumped up after he returned. LJ will still have a nice year but without Roaf he'll come down to earth alittle. As for the offensive coordinator everywhere Al Saunders has gone he has brought a top five running game with him. The running back, or whatever position for that fact, can only do what the o-coordinator allows him to do. Al like to run the ball and throw swing passes. He like to give the ball to his rb inside the 20. I'd like to see how many times Herm's coaching staff gives LJ the rock inside the 20. The year that Curtis MArtin lead the league in rushing he only had 12 td's. That's a great year for Curtis but obviously he didn't see the ball as many inside the 20's like LJ did last year.Also, about Holt. I have him ranked #1 and yes I do think STL, where I'm from, will be changed up on offense. I think it's even a better situation for Holt owners. #1) In the Linnehann's offense we've seen Minn single in on their best wr option and get him the ball on a very high ratio. He was targeted in the top five wr's for 4 years straight. Then in Miami their #1 option at wr C. Chambers had a break out season under Linnehan's offense. He had more targets than he had in his career and put up his best #'s of his carrer. I'd say Linnehan has a great past resume for getting his #1 wr the ball. #2) Bulger might be able to stay healthy for the whole year due to getting better protection and mixing up the play call alittle. Last year he was a sitting duck due to Martz's play calling. Linnehann shoud give him alot better protection. Holt, unfortunetly for your statement, hasn't taken a downgrade in the offseason due to a new regime but I believe LJ will. When someone has the resume that Saunders does leaves......well the proof is in the pudding.Also how was the great KC running situation before Sauunder and Vermeil got there?I don't own T. Holt in any leagues.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I keep hearing all the Portis love. Someone want to fill me in on why he's going to beat out LJ?The Roaf thing has been beat to death but LJ had his best games with Roaf out while also playing the very worst run defenses in the league. I suppose you could take that as an argument for a minimal drop in production.I'm leaning LJ for the local TV factor (I'm in the KC area).

Well my reasoning is pretty simple. Portis is much more proven than LJ is. In his 4 years in the league he has rushed for over 1500 yards 3 times. The other year he got hurt and still ran for 1315. I guess everyone is forgetting what a bust LJ was until the last half of the season last year. Remember Vermeil calling him a baby and saying he needed to take the diapers off? Now all of a sudden he's the best player in the league? Sorry, I have a hard time believing that for some reason. Also Portis has been raving about the new offense with Saunders calling the plays. You know, the same guy that made Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson look amazing? Well, Portis was amazing before him and will be even better with him this season. With the additions at the WR position, it should help to open up the running game more as well. All of those guys are safe picks, I just happen to think that Portis will have a break out year.

Uhh...sorry man, I live in KC. Nobody ever called him a bust. They were making fun of him because he was crying about how good he was, and how he should start. The joke was, that we already had one of the best RB's in the league, and he needed to shut up and wait his turn.LJ didn't play much at all (20 att, 4.2ypc) his rookie year. But he played a bit in '04 when Priest went down. 581/9 TD's 4.8ypc...on top of his 22/278/2 TD's. That's a bust? I wonder why so many people were drafting a bust in round 5 on the off chance that Priest would go down...Unless you watched LJ play, you can't really know what some of us aren't that worried about all the changes. I think Portis will have a very good year with Saunders. He's the safe pick. But LJ's the sexy pick, because some of us have been watching him take out all that anger on his would-be tacklers for the last two years. The guy is a beast. He doesn't need 6ft lanes to make yards...he knocks the defenders down, and drags the rest.LJ will outscore Portis, carry for carry, for the third year in a row. And I'd bet that LJ get's more carries to top it off. Regardless of who's blocking for him.

That's the main thing that worries me about LJ, the way he runs. Alexander and LT avoid contact, LJ looks for it. I know that injuries are hard to predict and flukey in nature but LJ just takes a lot more punishment than the guys around him even if he dishes out just as much as he receives.

 

[Todem]

No PPR

LJ

SA

LT

 

[JAMMIN]

This Portis talk is really great. In another thread someone had Portis scoring 32 tds.

Back to the question. This year there is definitely a big 3. LJ, SA, and LT2. If you are fortunate enough to have top 3 pick this year you really can't go wrong. Each of the three players mentioned above have pros and cons. I think SA is the safest pick based on his easy schedule AGAIN but I think LJ has the most potential. It depends on your risk tolerance.

I would not rank LT2 #1 because of Rivers. The box is going to be stacked this year and Rivers is going to struggle big time. I am not sure how Rivers could not struggle he is not used to this type of competition.

 

[SSOG]

I like Alexander. Best offense of the 3 and the nicest looking run schedule. Should once again set him up for a lot of scoring opportunities.

Call me crazy, but I really feel like his numbers were exaggerated due to the heavy injuries to the Seahawks WR corps last year.Who knows though. As scary as that Seahawks D looks this year, he could be toting the rock 30 times a game just to eat up the clock.

Okay, crazy.I don't disagree with you, but you did ask...

This Portis talk is really great. In another thread someone had Portis scoring 32 tds. Back to the question. This year there is definitely a big 3. LJ, SA, and LT2. If you are fortunate enough to have top 3 pick this year you really can't go wrong. Each of the three players mentioned above have pros and cons. I think SA is the safest pick based on his easy schedule AGAIN but I think LJ has the most potential. It depends on your risk tolerance. I would not rank LT2 #1 because of Rivers. The box is going to be stacked this year and Rivers is going to struggle big time. I am not sure how Rivers could not struggle he is not used to this type of competition.

Tomlinson got his when Brees sucked. Tomlinson got his when Brees was a pro bowler. Tomlinson got his when he was healthy. Tomlinson got his when he was hurt. The moral of the story? Tomlinson is going to get his.LDT has finished in the top-5 in year-end VBD for 4 straight years now. To put that into perspective, do you know who else has pulled off that feat? Marshall Faulk. And that's it.I've got LDT #1 on my boards, in PPR or otherwise. He probably won't finish #1 overall, but he sure as heck isn't finishing outside of the top 5 unless he gets lost for the year.

 

[JAMMIN]

LT2 is a stud he just has a worse situation than SA. SA has a better schedule and Hasselback to keep D's honest. Rivers is going to have to get first downs to get those chains moving. SDG is going to see a lot of three and outs early in the season.

 

[caglassc]

My evaluation (based on a keeper league) I would say LJ is #1.

 

[lebowski]

I've got LDT #1 on my boards, in PPR or otherwise. He probably won't finish #1 overall, but he sure as heck isn't finishing outside of the top 5 unless he gets lost for the year.

If you have the #1 pick why wouldn't you draft who you think is going to be #1?

 

[GiantsRule]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.

this is called denial

It's called research. You're in denial if you think LJ will bust because of the loss of an OL who he had his best games without, an OC who didn't make the difference between a stud and scrub, and an aging FB who can be replaced. Please, keep the stupid neanderthal comments to yourself. At least backup your points with some kind of info.EDIT: And if the loss of an OC honestly worries you that much, you should be biting your nails over Holt. Martz had more of an impact on that pass happy offense than Saunders did on KCs offense.

<_< Let's be excellent to each other and not post personal attacks. That is not what we do on this board and the mods will be quick to point that out.

You guys STILL use this phrase?!?

 

[jurb26]

I've got LDT #1 on my boards, in PPR or otherwise. He probably won't finish #1 overall, but he sure as heck isn't finishing outside of the top 5 unless he gets lost for the year.

If you have the #1 pick why wouldn't you draft who you think is going to be #1?

Some people simply like to avoid risk. Seems that is his rational. I'm not sure I agree with his, as I think if you want to take previous history and numbers to make a case for safest RB, SA wins hands down. Here are SA's finishes over the past 5 years:45611LT:73333I'll take SA.

 

[SSOG]

I've got LDT #1 on my boards, in PPR or otherwise. He probably won't finish #1 overall, but he sure as heck isn't finishing outside of the top 5 unless he gets lost for the year.

If you have the #1 pick why wouldn't you draft who you think is going to be #1?

Hypothetical scenario.Let's say that you're considering two players. One player has, in your mind, a 60% chance to finish as the #1 RB, and a 40% chance to finish as the #50 RB. The other has, in your mind, a 40% chance to finish as the #1 RB, and a 60% chance to finish as the #2 RB.You have the #1 pick. Would you draft the guy who you think is more likely to finish the season as #1 overall?

 

[FUBAR]

I've got LDT #1 on my boards, in PPR or otherwise. He probably won't finish #1 overall, but he sure as heck isn't finishing outside of the top 5 unless he gets lost for the year.

If you have the #1 pick why wouldn't you draft who you think is going to be #1?

Some people simply like to avoid risk. Seems that is his rational. I'm not sure I agree with his, as I think if you want to take previous history and numbers to make a case for safest RB, SA wins hands down. Here are SA's finishes over the past 5 years:45611LT:73333I'll take SA.

I always remove the rookie year from my calculations, so I consider LT a lock to be a top 3 RB.Do you want a lock at #3 or a 50/50 chance at #1 vs. 5 or 6? It's a fair answer either way.Now how has the teams changed? Hutch is huge. Brees may very well be as well. The reason we don't have an answer is any of the 3 are a good pick.But I'm taking LJ

 

[FUBAR]

Hypothetical scenario.Let's say that you're considering two players. One player has, in your mind, a 60% chance to finish as the #1 RB, and a 40% chance to finish as the #50 RB. The other has, in your mind, a 40% chance to finish as the #1 RB, and a 60% chance to finish as the #2 RB.You have the #1 pick. Would you draft the guy who you think is more likely to finish the season as #1 overall?

flaVVed

 

[SSOG]

Hypothetical scenario.Let's say that you're considering two players. One player has, in your mind, a 60% chance to finish as the #1 RB, and a 40% chance to finish as the #50 RB. The other has, in your mind, a 40% chance to finish as the #1 RB, and a 60% chance to finish as the #2 RB.You have the #1 pick. Would you draft the guy who you think is more likely to finish the season as #1 overall?

flaVVed

I'm not saying it's a likely situation, but it is an example of a scenario where I would project a guy to finish #1, but would draft someone else ahead of him.If you want a more realistic example... let's say Player A has a 10% chance to finish #1 in my projections, but a 60% chance to finish in the top 3, a 90% chance to finish in the top 10, and a 99% chance to finish in the top 20. We'll call this player "LaDainian Tomlinson". Meanwhile, Player B has a 30% chance to finish #1 in my projections, a 40% chance to finish in the top 3, a mere 60% chance to finish in the top 10, and a 70% chance to finish in the top 20. We'll call this hypothetical player "Larry Johnson".I think those are believable projections for the two players. If they both perform at their healthy studly best, I think LJ outscores LDT. Then again, I also think that there's a much bigger chance that LJ just falls off the face of the planet- let's call it the "Kevin Jones/Kevan Barlow/Willis McGahee/Julius Jones/William Green Phenomenon".With those projections, I would prefer Tomlinson to Johnson.Is that analysis "flaVVed", too? Do you want me to come up with more scenarios where I would pass over someone who I expect to finish the season #1 overall in favor of a different player? Or are you willing to accept that scenarios exist where, in my opinion, it makes sense to pass over the player you're projecting for more points for another player who you project to fewer points, but who has a higher floor?

 

[Slider]

I'd go LT or Portis.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

[No message]

 

[shadow2k]

LJ's #'s without Roaf110 and 241 and 113 and 034 and 053 and 093 and 155 and 0

Roaf: Started vs. the N.Y. Jets (9/11) before leaving the game in the first quarter with a left hamstring strain … Was inactive at Oakland (9/18), at Denver (9/26) and vs. Philadelphia (10/2) with that injury, breaking a streak of 49 consecutive starts … Returned to the starting lineup vs. Washington (10/16) ... Reaggrevated his hamstring injury and was inactive for contests vs. Oakland (11/6), at Buffalo (11/13) and at Houston (11/20) ... Started the season’s final six games at left tackle, beginning with a contest vs. New England (11/27). Look at LJ's numbers again, he didn't start until the eigth game of the season. There were only three games he started that Roaf didn't play in.11/06 OAK 22/107/2 3/48/011/13 @BUF 27/132/0 5/46/011/20 @HOU 36/211/2 1/6/0I guess you can look at the games he played in when Priest started as well, but backs like LJ do better the more they carry the ball. Even so, his ypc was 4.0 for every one of those games that Priest started except against DEN. You're simply looking at total yards and TD's...LJ was the backup for those games! So of course his total yards and TD's are going to look crappy most of the time.

 

[FFFIEND]

LJ

or maybe

LT2

wait ... maybe

SA

I haven't decided yet. I can make sure good arguments for each one.

 

[Double_J]

Draft was tonight....don't ask me why because I have no idea....and I lucked up and got the number 1 pick. I sat there for a minute and finally decided to just take LJ. If I pass and don't win, I never hear the end of it. If I take him and lose, it was the pick I was supposed to make. I think he'll put up what he did last year except in 16 games instead of 8.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Roaf left in the first Quarter of week 1 last year and Johnson piled up 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.

In the next three games, all of which Roaf missed, LJ went 9 for 41 and a TD, 8 for 13, and 7 for 34.

When Roaf reaggravated his injury and went out again against Oakland, LJ still managed 107 yards and 2 TDs. Roaf missed the next two games also. In those two games Johnson managed 132 yards and a 211 2 TD effort.

If LJ was your number one before Roaf announced his retirement don't jump ship so soon. If you had other concerns about LJ thats fine, but don't look at Roaf's retirement as LJ's downfall.

As far as losing Saunders, an OC isn't going to make the difference between a stud and a bust. He wont have that major of an impact. LJ is a stud and a playmaker and will be used no matter who the OC is. As far as Richardson goes, LJ ran successfully in two TE singleback sets without Richardson. This loss is more significant than Saunders or Roaf IMO, but it won't keep LJ from being a stud. They'll still give him a FB that can block, or even put another OL back there as FB.

this is called denial

:X Blackjacks well thought out and intelligent response turned out to be right after all.

Simmer down there LJ owner. And you are an LJ owner.

Hate to break it to you but LJ will be looking up at Portis in the FFB ranking. You think that the loss of the OC is no big deal? Who calls the plays? Who calls LJ's number every time the Chiefs are near the goal line? Saunders did. Edwards has NEVER used a RB around the goal line as much as Vermiel and Saunders have both with the Rams and the Chiefs. Now Saunders is calling the plays in Washington. Guess who's going to be punching it in from inside the 5 every time this year? Portis. Can't say the same for KC. They have a pretty good TE in KC that they might actually use now that Saunders isn't calling the plays.....

BTW, I don't own either Portis or LJ. Never have. Portis will be the #1 RB this year. Good luck with the name calling tho. Seems to me that you won't be on this board much longer if you fly off the handle so easily after a single comment to the contrary to your position. I hear that stuff is cool at FFToday, but here it's not allowed....

 

[Blackjacks]

I'll be looking up all of your stuff here to let you know what you were wrong on.. LJ was very good this year and he impressed me as a runner. I still think had Portis been healthy he would have been in the top 3 but that is just my opinion. Kudos to you I was wrong as well as many others.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

don't bother, i already started a thread on hits and misses. you can see my misses there.