Why are people underestimating torn ACLs? (1 Viewer)

[PahtyTom]

Palmer 2nd QB off the board? Javon Walker before Mason, Branch, and Evans? Edwards before Ike Bruce? Seems crazy to me. Why does it seem like many people are underestimating just how devistating a torn ACL is and how difficult it is to come back from in LESS than 1 year? I know all these players are bumped down from where they would have normally been drafted if healthy, but I do not believe that they have been bumped down nearly enough. Palmer tears his in week 17 and people are really expecting him to start week 1??? I know he doesn't have to run like a halfback or wideout, but he still has to take hits on that knee and backpedal and pivot, etc. and if that knee isn't close to 100% he could have serious problems. Culpepper tore 3 ligaments including his ACL, Javon Walker and Braylon Edwards are wide receivers who have to be explosive and start and stop on a dime, and Deuce has torn his knees up before. Besides Jerry Rice, who has shown that they can come back after less than a year of rehab and perform at a consistently high level that season? Personally, I'm not drafting any of these guys this year and in the case of Palmer (I think CPep has a better chance of playing every game) I'm also downgrading his teammates below where most of their ADP are. Am I underestimating the advances in modern day surgical technology?

 

[the rover]

You're right. I'm going to bump Torn ACL up my draft board.

 

[FTRWRTR]

A torn acl isn't a death sentence like it used to be. Mike anderson tore his acl and as a result missed all of 2004 yet in 2005 he finished as the #10 rb in ff and that was with him having to share carries.

 

[PahtyTom]

A torn acl isn't a death sentence like it used to be. Mike anderson tore his acl and as a result missed all of 2004 yet in 2005 he finished as the #10 rb in ff

That is pretty much my point though...he tore his acl at the beginning of the 2003 season, and had to sit out the entire 2004 season. He then bounced back in 2005, 2 years after his injury. As mentioned above, all these guys are coming off a torn acl less than a year ago.

 

[brakeyawself]

Palmer 2nd QB off the board? Javon Walker before Mason, Branch, and Evans? Edwards before Ike Bruce? Seems crazy to me. Why does it seem like many people are underestimating just how devistating a torn ACL is and how difficult it is to come back from in LESS than 1 year? I know all these players are bumped down from where they would have normally been drafted if healthy, but I do not believe that they have been bumped down nearly enough. Palmer tears his in week 17 and people are really expecting him to start week 1??? I know he doesn't have to run like a halfback or wideout, but he still has to take hits on that knee and backpedal and pivot, etc. and if that knee isn't close to 100% he could have serious problems. Culpepper tore 3 ligaments including his ACL, Javon Walker and Braylon Edwards are wide receivers who have to be explosive and start and stop on a dime, and Deuce has torn his knees up before. Besides Jerry Rice, who has shown that they can come back after less than a year of rehab and perform at a consistently high level that season? Personally, I'm not drafting any of these guys this year and in the case of Palmer (I think CPep has a better chance of playing every game) I'm also downgrading his teammates below where most of their ADP are. Am I underestimating the advances in modern day surgical technology?

I'd most certainly rather have someone that never tore their acl. But then I dont think these guys had ever tore one before they tore theirs. This is such a risky business.

 

[FTRWRTR]

A torn acl isn't a death sentence like it used to be. Mike anderson tore his acl and as a result missed all of 2004 yet in 2005 he finished as the #10 rb in ff

That is pretty much my point though...he tore his acl at the beginning of the 2003 season, and had to sit out the entire 2004 season. He then bounced back in 2005, 2 years after his injury. As mentioned above, all these guys are coming off a torn acl less than a year ago.

Anderson played in 12 games in 2003 including five starts...he tore his acl in 2004 so he came back in one year

 

[Marc Levin]

A torn acl isn't a death sentence like it used to be. Mike anderson tore his acl and as a result missed all of 2004 yet in 2005 he finished as the #10 rb in ff

That is pretty much my point though...he tore his acl at the beginning of the 2003 season, and had to sit out the entire 2004 season. He then bounced back in 2005, 2 years after his injury. As mentioned above, all these guys are coming off a torn acl less than a year ago.

Anderson played in 12 games in 2003 including five starts...he tore his acl in 2004 so he came back in one year

Plus, the ACL injury is easier to deal with as a QB, thus thenumber of QBs returning from it.WRs, I'm much more worried about. That said, we are now alomst a full year out from JWalker's injury - and he HAS had some problems already with sore knees. But even if he is slowed for a month, I'll take the last 12 games of the season with a healthy JWalker over 16 from the other guys you mentioned.BTW, it is a full on MYTH that it takes two years to come back from an ACL - it USED TO be true, but not any more. I jumped off the same cornice where I tore my ACL just under a year after tearing it (was my first run of the ski season), and I was skiing like a champ again by the end of the season.

 

[shadow2k]

Jamal Lewis tore his ACL, and came back the next year with better numbers. I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year, they both were right around 1,000ru yds.

It all comes down to Risk vs Reward. Drafting solid guys like Mason won't lose it for you, but they aren't going to win it either. Drafting a guy like Walker, who looks very good in camp, and who will have had a full year to recover by game day....well, those are the guys that could present great value if they return to form. Guess it comes down to how much you like to gamble.

 

[massraider]

My college roommate tore his ACL having sex with his girlfriend , and was back pitching for Northeastern within a year. That was several years ago too.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

You're right. I'm going to bump Torn ACL up my draft board.

 

[Mapmaker]

My college roommate tore his ACL having sex with his girlfriend , and was back pitching for Northeastern within a year. That was several years ago too.

 

[H.K.]

My college roommate tore his ACL having sex with his girlfriend , and was back pitching for Northeastern within a year. That was several years ago too.

Man, I hear stories like this and it makes me cringe.Public service announcement: Always be on the bottom, it severely reduces the potential for injury.Good luck, and for heaven's sake, be safe!

 

[fsufan]

My college roommate tore his ACL having sex with his girlfriend , and was back pitching for Northeastern within a year. That was several years ago too.

Know a guy that tore his ACL swing at a softball, he missed. He was back playing in 10 months.but your story is better

 

[Festivus]

I tore my ACL once and it took 2 years before I was able to have sex again...

 

[BlueOnion]

Technology with doctors is continually evolving. There was a time when a torn ACL was a career-ending injury, then it dropped to career-limiting, then it was 1 year the player could be back \ 2 years he would be fine.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

The sample size for torn ACLs on WRs and QBs is not as large as it is for RBs. We have a workable RB standard, that you need at least a FULL YEAR from the time of injury to come back servicable (Jamal Lewis). RBs who try to come back on a shorter time table tend to struggle and need an additional offseason before they are back at full strength.

So because there is no "rule" for QBs and WRs, you have a good idea what the majority of FFers feel the the effect of a torn ACL is for those positions... for better or for worse.

This is one of the more important questions about to be answered in '06 for FF.

 

[Wheelhouse]

For what it's worth - I agree with that people are underestimating the severity of torn ACLs. Ya know what? Let them. Who would you rather have on your team, someone coming off an injury that we are not sure about or someone healthy with slightly less value? I'd choose the healthy guy. Let someone else choose the risk.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

The sample size for torn ACLs on WRs and QBs is not as large as it is for RBs. We have a workable RB standard, that you need at least a FULL YEAR from the time of injury to come back servicable (Jamal Lewis). RBs who try to come back on a shorter time table tend to struggle and need an additional offseason before they are back at full strength.So because there is no "rule" for QBs and WRs, you have a good idea what the majority of FFers feel the the effect of a torn ACL is for those positions... for better or for worse. This is one of the more important questions about to be answered in '06 for FF.

I'll add that this all comes down to risk management IMHO. The poster that suggested that Walker could win you the championship versus Mason, the safe pick, who won't, needs to qualify that with making sure the risk is mitigated with solid depth or something. Walker can easily become a liability because his floor his so low.The mental aspect of how the player reacts to a player at his knees, his psyche of getting hit or putting himself in that position is not measurable because it varies from player to player and is being overlooked here.

 

[shredhead]

A torn acl isn't a death sentence like it used to be. Mike anderson tore his acl and as a result missed all of 2004 yet in 2005 he finished as the #10 rb in ff and that was with him having to share carries.

I don't remember Mike Anderson tearing his ACL. I live outside of Denver and am a Broncos fan, and still don't remember a torn ACL. I do remember a torn quadriceps muscle that sidelined him for the entire 2004 season. Did he tear his ACL before or after the torn Quad ended his season. Maybe it was after, while having sex because he was overcompinsating for his torn quad. Yeah thats it.

 

[ATC1]

The sample size for torn ACLs on WRs and QBs is not as large as it is for RBs. We have a workable RB standard, that you need at least a FULL YEAR from the time of injury to come back servicable (Jamal Lewis). RBs who try to come back on a shorter time table tend to struggle and need an additional offseason before they are back at full strength.So because there is no "rule" for QBs and WRs, you have a good idea what the majority of FFers feel the the effect of a torn ACL is for those positions... for better or for worse. This is one of the more important questions about to be answered in '06 for FF.

I'll add that this all comes down to risk management IMHO. The poster that suggested that Walker could win you the championship versus Mason, the safe pick, who won't, needs to qualify that with making sure the risk is mitigated with solid depth or something. Walker can easily become a liability because his floor his so low.The mental aspect of how the player reacts to a player at his knees, his psyche of getting hit or putting himself in that position is not measurable because it varies from player to player and is being overlooked here.

excelent The truth is that every person is different in dealing with injuries. Some people heal faster and some people have good rehab habits and the metal aspect to come back within a year. Also, as trainer's and doctors get used to ACL reconstructions and rehabs, they realize what protocal works best for particular athletes.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Jamal Lewis tore his ACL, and came back the next year with better numbers. I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year, they both were right around 1,000ru yds.

It all comes down to Risk vs Reward. Drafting solid guys like Mason won't lose it for you, but they aren't going to win it either. Drafting a guy like Walker, who looks very good in camp, and who will have had a full year to recover by game day....well, those are the guys that could present great value if they return to form. Guess it comes down to how much you like to gamble.

This line of thinking about "upside" is just wrong. Last year for example Roy Williams and Michael Clayton had this mysterious "upside" while guys like Joey Galloway, Steve Smith, and Santana Moss were solid performers but weren't going to win the league for you. Same thing with Mushin Muhammad two years ago. Or for an example at RB, Curtis Martin 2 years ago or Tiki Barber last year.

 

[shadow2k]

Jamal Lewis tore his ACL, and came back the next year with better numbers. I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year, they both were right around 1,000ru yds.

It all comes down to Risk vs Reward. Drafting solid guys like Mason won't lose it for you, but they aren't going to win it either. Drafting a guy like Walker, who looks very good in camp, and who will have had a full year to recover by game day....well, those are the guys that could present great value if they return to form. Guess it comes down to how much you like to gamble.

This line of thinking about "upside" is just wrong. Last year for example Roy Williams and Michael Clayton had this mysterious "upside" while guys like Joey Galloway, Steve Smith, and Santana Moss were solid performers but weren't going to win the league for you. Same thing with Mushin Muhammad two years ago. Or for an example at RB, Curtis Martin 2 years ago or Tiki Barber last year.

Steve Smith wasn't solid. He was...coming off a leg injury and caught one pass the season before. In 2003, he was one of the top WR's the latter part of the year. He wasn't solid, he showed that he had the potential to be one of the top receivers in the league. But people were worried about how he'd be since he caught one pass the year before. He's a better argument for my side of the coin. He went in the fourth round of my draft last year.Galloway has been injured for like...a decade. He was always injured, not solid. Was he even drafted in your league last year? He was in mine, I drafted him in the 14th round.

S. Moss wasn't solid. He had one good year, then a crappy year and people got down on him. Then he got a change of scenery and became good again.

Muhammad would be the closest I guess, but he only had one decent year before he had his little breakout season. Not what I'd call consistently solid.

None of these guys fit the bill for that argument...at all. Mason has been doing the 1100/7 thing for what, like five years now?

Curtis Martin and Tiki Barber would be the closest. But they were both 2nd round picks in most drafts anyway. I mean, most players coming off major injuries that you'd take a chance on...aren't going in the first two rounds.

As for upside? Clayton and Roy both sucked, sure. But you know as well as I do that I could rattle off a ton of names of guys players people took risks on that panned out. The guys with upside. Take the most obvious choice, LJ last year. Those are the guys that win people leagues. And yes, when you miss, they can lose it for you to.

But Mason...hey, I like the guy. I used to draft him. But he never did anything more than he was expected to. If you don't want to take risks, he's a great play. But he's not a pick that you'll find a lot of value in. He's going to do exactly what you expect. Taking a risk on a Walker type means that...he could not even see the field, or he could go off for 90/1400/12 (I highly doubt it though, but that's what he did in '04).

Walker is like playing dollar slots. You might win, and you have a high chance of losing as well. Mason is like playing the change machine. You know you're getting four quarters out of that sucker, and while you won't end up behind...it won't get you ahead either.

 

[joffer]

I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year, they both were right around 1,000ru yds.

and both of their YPC dropped almost a full yard.I don't believe Mike Anderson ever tore an ACL. I think it was a tendon or a hamstring. Olandis Gary tore his ACL and was never the same.Agree with the original post. The only guy i'm even thinking about taking is Culpepper just because i think he's a physical freak and a bit of an exception to the rule.

 

[ooofffaaa]

CPepp is starting htis weekend in Miami's 1st preseason game

 

[BigRed]

Jamal Lewis tore his ACL, and came back the next year with better numbers. I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year,

er I think that's the point here.

Drafting solid guys like Mason won't lose it for you, but they aren't going to win it either.

Not to sidetrack, but no one player is going to win it for you and solid players can and do help win titles. Thinking it's always better to take the "risky upside" player is ridiculous.Walker is on my draft list but I guarantee someone will out-bid me for him. And yes I avoid torn ACL players like the plague. Well WRs and RBs anyway - I agree it's not the same thing w/QBs. But I'm glad a lot of people disagree.

PS no offense but saying "I tore my ACL and still could ski" is not exactly the same as playing in the NFL, FYI.

 

[shadow2k]

I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year, they both were right around 1,000ru yds.

and both of their YPC dropped almost a full yard.I don't believe Mike Anderson ever tore an ACL. I think it was a tendon or a hamstring. Olandis Gary tore his ACL and was never the same.Agree with the original post. The only guy i'm even thinking about taking is Culpepper just because i think he's a physical freak and a bit of an exception to the rule.

Well yeah, I wouldn't expect them to just pick up where they left off. But that's not what I'm talking about. Take McAllister for example. His current ADP in a 12-teamer is 6th round. If you get 1000/5 out of a 6th round RB, would you be happy? Because that's basically what Jamal and Edge gave you when they came back. If you look at other players drafted around his same spot, you see guys like...LenDale White, Deangelo Williams, Marion Barber, and Ron freakin Dayne. Personally, I don't really have any high hopes for McAllister this year. But come on, by the sixth round, if you can find a 1000yd back, you've done something right. That's value, despite the fact that their numbers aren't equal to what they used to be.

 

[joffer]

I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year, they both were right around 1,000ru yds.

and both of their YPC dropped almost a full yard.I don't believe Mike Anderson ever tore an ACL. I think it was a tendon or a hamstring. Olandis Gary tore his ACL and was never the same.

Agree with the original post. The only guy i'm even thinking about taking is Culpepper just because i think he's a physical freak and a bit of an exception to the rule.

Well yeah, I wouldn't expect them to just pick up where they left off. But that's not what I'm talking about. Take McAllister for example. His current ADP in a 12-teamer is 6th round. If you get 1000/5 out of a 6th round RB, would you be happy? Because that's basically what Jamal and Edge gave you when they came back. If you look at other players drafted around his same spot, you see guys like...LenDale White, Deangelo Williams, Marion Barber, and Ron freakin Dayne. Personally, I don't really have any high hopes for McAllister this year. But come on, by the sixth round, if you can find a 1000yd back, you've done something right. That's value, despite the fact that their numbers aren't equal to what they used to be.

except that1) his YPC was 3.6 before the injury

2) Reggie Bush

I'm not expecting 1000 yards from Deuce this year, more like 750, with significant risk that he misses multiple games.

 

[BigRed]

Jamal Lewis tore his ACL, and came back the next year with better numbers. I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year, they both were right around 1,000ru yds.

It all comes down to Risk vs Reward. Drafting solid guys like Mason won't lose it for you, but they aren't going to win it either. Drafting a guy like Walker, who looks very good in camp, and who will have had a full year to recover by game day....well, those are the guys that could present great value if they return to form. Guess it comes down to how much you like to gamble.

This line of thinking about "upside" is just wrong. Last year for example Roy Williams and Michael Clayton had this mysterious "upside" while guys like Joey Galloway, Steve Smith, and Santana Moss were solid performers but weren't going to win the league for you. Same thing with Mushin Muhammad two years ago. Or for an example at RB, Curtis Martin 2 years ago or Tiki Barber last year.

guess I shoulda kept reading before basically saying the same thing. PS good response as well - I think we're closer to agreeing than it might sound. Really you have to take each risk/reward on a per-player basis. eg I'm seriously thinking of going for DD this year, well aware it could tank my FF season.

 

[shadow2k]

Jamal Lewis tore his ACL, and came back the next year with better numbers. I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year,

er I think that's the point here.

Drafting solid guys like Mason won't lose it for you, but they aren't going to win it either.

Not to sidetrack, but no one player is going to win it for you and solid players can and do help win titles. Thinking it's always better to take the "risky upside" player is ridiculous.Walker is on my draft list but I guarantee someone will out-bid me for him. And yes I avoid torn ACL players like the plague. Well WRs and RBs anyway - I agree it's not the same thing w/QBs. But I'm glad a lot of people disagree.

PS no offense but saying "I tore my ACL and still could ski" is not exactly the same as playing in the NFL, FYI.

Let's be fair. Return to form, and good value for where they get drafted are two completely different things. They were both right around 1000yds the year they came back. I'd take that from a mid round pick, wouldn't you?I'm not saying it's always better to take the risky player. I'm talking about calculated risks here. When you see CPep playing this weekend, you think...hey, maybe if I spend a 6th rounder on him, he can toss me 25 TD's and be a decent starter. But you also make sure you cover your ### and draft a decent backup in case CPep doesn't pan out. When you see that Walker won't play...maybe he drops down your board a bit. Then maybe you're more inclined to draft that solid and steady guy who's gonna give you decent, but unspectacular numbers.

Let's get something clear though. At this point, I wouldn't touch any one of them, because I haven't seen any of them in a game. But if I see them on the field in the coming weeks, doing well and looking healthy...I'm not going to dodge a guy just because there's this "2yr ACL" rule. If I think I can get a good value at a certain pick...I'm going to take it and run.

 

[shadow2k]

I believe Jamal Anderson and Edgerrin James both had torn ACL's as well, and while they didn't return to form that next year, they both were right around 1,000ru yds.

and both of their YPC dropped almost a full yard.I don't believe Mike Anderson ever tore an ACL. I think it was a tendon or a hamstring. Olandis Gary tore his ACL and was never the same.

Agree with the original post. The only guy i'm even thinking about taking is Culpepper just because i think he's a physical freak and a bit of an exception to the rule.

Well yeah, I wouldn't expect them to just pick up where they left off. But that's not what I'm talking about. Take McAllister for example. His current ADP in a 12-teamer is 6th round. If you get 1000/5 out of a 6th round RB, would you be happy? Because that's basically what Jamal and Edge gave you when they came back. If you look at other players drafted around his same spot, you see guys like...LenDale White, Deangelo Williams, Marion Barber, and Ron freakin Dayne. Personally, I don't really have any high hopes for McAllister this year. But come on, by the sixth round, if you can find a 1000yd back, you've done something right. That's value, despite the fact that their numbers aren't equal to what they used to be.

except that1) his YPC was 3.6 before the injury

2) Reggie Bush

I'm not expecting 1000 yards from Deuce this year, more like 750, with significant risk that he misses multiple games.

I'm not saying he'll go for 1000. I haven't even seen the guy on the field yet. It was hypothetical, that's why I said "if". I was comparing it to what Jamal and Edge did when they came back, that's it. Not projecting stats for Deuce. His situation has other issues beyond whether he's healthy or not.

 

[DoctorFantasy]

While it is true that athletes can return from ACL reconstruction within 6-9 months of surgery, it usually takes 1 to 2 years following surgery for an athlete to come back at 100% and perform at their previous level. As an arena football player who has had an ACL reconstruction performed, I was not performing at my prior level until probably 18 months post-op after my grueling rehab plan. Typically takes over 1 year for the blood and oxygen supply to infiltrate the new ligament and for sensory nerves to fully develop.

Not saying these players (Edwards, Palmer, Culpepper, etc) cannot play week 1, but they are likely not fully recovered and run the risk of injuring their knee once again.

I have noticed that these players are getting drafted much earlier than my liking. Personally, I will shy away from these players until a round or two after their current ADPs.