ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I agree with this 100%, although I would try to trade down two or three picks and then draft Quinn
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Why do I fear major bust potential from JaMarcus? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LawFitz
- Start date
LawFitz
Footballguy
Russell supporters, what say you on the following article claiming that he lacks the ability to read defenses and/or manage games? Is it too one-sided? I'd like to know your thoughts...
2007 Quarterbacks Draft Preview
4/17/2007
by David Lewin
This year, as usual, a number of teams at the top of the draft are looking quarterback. The apples of scouts’ eyes this time around are Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell. Quinn is the All-American boy, a four-year starter at Notre Dame, with all the measurables that teams look for. Russell, an early entry after his junior year, is more of a dark horse. He never achieved the level of success Quinn did in college, but he soundly outplayed Quinn in their head-to-head matchup at the Sugar Bowl and has ridiculous physical talent.
Still, if we’ve learned anything about the NFL draft in recent years it’s that there’s no such thing as a can’t miss prospect, especially at the quarterback position. After Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, David Carr, etc. teams are more wary than ever about taking a QB high.
Last year, in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, I introduced a system for predicting the NFL passing performance of first- and second-round quarterbacks by looking at their on college statistics. (I may try to project running ability in the future, but it is not currently included.) After gathering and analyzing extensive data, I determined that games started and completion percentage in college were strong predictors of NFL success.
In fact, for first- and second-round quarterbacks these two variables explain roughly 65 percent of the variation in NFL performance. This is a remarkably high number given how much of an impact we believe that teammates have on a quarterback’s play. The system accurately predicted Philip Rivers’ breakout season, and the success or lack thereof, of many other young passers. With an eye on this research I take a closer look at the pro prospects of Russell, Quinn, and the other quarterbacks of the Class of 2007.
JaMarcus Russell
Russell is possibly the most physically talented quarterback prospect since John Elway. He’s 6-foot-6, 260 pounds with an arm that makes Brett Favre look like Danny Wuerffel. Russell is also a good runner and his arm strength allows him to hit any open receiver while he is on the move. He has huge hands, which help him avoid fumbles, and remarkably quick feet for such large man. Physically, Russell compares favorably to Daunte Culpepper, Byron Leftwich, and Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom have had some degree of success in the NFL. Assuming he can get his weight under control, Russell figures to be more mobile than Leftwich and Roethlisberger, but not as good of a runner as pre-injury Culpepper.
However, hidden behind Russell’s immense physical talent are a couple of major red flags. For starters, as recently as last summer’s training camp, Russell was engaged in a fierce quarterback battle with Matt Flynn and Ryan Perriloux. There were rumors that Russell was gone to the NFL at the end of the season no matter how the year went, simply, because he was unsure that he’d be able to hold onto the starting job again. Russell emerged from the controversy to have a great season, but it was the first of his career in which he was statistically the best passer on his team. While this history doesn’t doom Russell (Tom Brady had similar issues), I would still be wary of spending the number one overall pick and the 25 million dollar signing bonus that comes with it on a guy who wasn’t even the clear-cut starter his final year in college. Less than six months ago, very few experts considered Russell a first-round pick. FO’s own Michael David Smith, for example, wrote “I don’t see Russell as a first-round pick at all” in the discussion thread for Seventh Day Adventure on September 17th. Late risers usually fail to live up to the hype.
An even bigger issue with Russell is that he is an atrocious decision maker. He consistently throws the ball into double and triple coverage. Like Favre he often gets away with it by making spectacular throws. Still, field vision is the single most important quality for a quarterback. You can get away with being average in this regard if you have superior arm strength and accuracy, but Russell still has a ways to go before he can be considered average at seeing the field.
Russell also has the tendency to simply throw the ball up for grabs when he gets confused. If you watched the Sugar Bowl you saw this happen on an early in the fourth quarter interception. Russell clearly blew his underneath reads, panicked, and just lofted the ball up. It went pretty much unnoticed because he played an otherwise stellar game, but it is a recurring problem. These passes didn’t always end up picks in college because Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis and Early Doucet (all future first day picks) did a nice job of winning jump balls. That won’t fly at the next level.
Another concern is that Russell ran a fairly simple offense at LSU. The Tigers eschewed complexity partly to avoid confusing Russell, and partly because complexity was not necessary for an offense as talented as LSU’s. Russell can make very difficult throws when he knows where to go with the ball, so the LSU coaching staff didn’t have to get fancy. This will still be true to a degree in the NFL. In fact Drew Bledsoe did pretty well in his first few years in the league in a Patriots offense using similar principles. Unfortunately coaches often seem reluctant to play to their quarterback’s strengths (see Vick, Michael) and try to force unique players into the cookie-cutter mold. Russell will struggle with an NFL-style offense at first, but if he’s coached well (like Vince Young was last season) then this shouldn’t be a prohibitive factor in his development.
All of these issues are related. Because of Russell’s knack for making boneheaded plays at the worst possible times, he had Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux breathing down his neck his whole college career. Any team that drafts him must be prepared to tolerate some very questionable decisions interspersed with Russell’s trademark spectacular throws. He is also known to get down on himself and get rattled when things are not going well. All in all he has a number of characteristics that you don’t like to see in a young quarterback.
Russell’s understanding of the game is questionable at best. He constantly infuriated LSU fans with his inability to manage situations properly. Pretty much everything that Russell is can be summed up by describing the final drive from this year’s LSU-Auburn game.
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LSU took over with 1:04 to go at their own 20-yard line trailing 7-3 with no timeouts remaining. On the first play from scrimmage Auburn sat back in a soft Cover-2 zone with the safeties deep. Russell didn’t notice this until it was too late and threw the ball out of bounds over the head of Craig Davis who was open running a vertical route down the sideline. The LSU coaching staff called Russell over and pointed out that he could pick the zone apart by throwing the ball to Davis in the Cover-2 hole at the sideline 20 yards downfield.
LSU then went out and ran the exact same play two more times. Russell hit Davis for gains of 20 and 21 yards. Davis was immediately drilled out of bounds both times. The Auburn safeties came flying downhill because they knew what was coming, but they couldn’t stop it. Russell simply got the ball there too fast.
All of a sudden LSU was driving. They had the ball on the Auburn 39-yard line with 50-odd seconds to go. Auburn, knowing they were in trouble, changed up their defense getting out of the soft Cover-2. Russell went back to pass, and seeing something different from what he was expecting, got confused. Luckily the protection was good and he was able to scan the field for four or five seconds. Still not seeing anything he liked, Russell began to roll to his right. He escaped the pressure and continued to move towards the sideline at a leisurely pace. Instead of throwing the ball away to stop the clock Russell decided to tuck it and duck upfield. He was tackled in-bounds at the line of scrimmage for no gain.
He got up without any sense of urgency and with a grin on his face. He seemed to be quite pleased with himself for avoiding a sack and maybe picking up a yard. After about a second he finally heard all the people screaming for him to spike the ball and began to hustle to the line. However by then it was too late. By the time LSU got set and spiked it there were only 25 seconds remaining. Russell had just wasted 20 crucial seconds. I have only rarely been angrier while watching a football game (not because I’m an LSU fan, I’m not, but because I like to see the game played intelligently).
Russell ended up bouncing back on the next play by hitting Dwayne Bowe for 20 yards putting LSU back in striking distance with under ten seconds remaining. However he followed that up with a stupid illegal formation penalty that pushed them back to the 24-yard line, and then hit Craig Davis for a 19-yard gain with no time left on the clock. Overall Russell’s numbers for the game looked pretty good (20/35, 267 yards, no TDs or picks), but when it counted he made certain LSU would come up short. That pretty much says all there is to say about Russell. He will tantalize you with impossible throws, but there is significant evidence that mentally he doesn’t have what it takes to be a great quarterback.
So, overall Russell has a pretty risky profile from a scouting perspective. He might be great, but he could be the next Jeff George (which, unless you’re Jason Whitlock, is not a good thing). That could be enough to keep teams from taking him first, but probably not. Here’s something that should: Russell started only 29 games at LSU. Over the past ten years, collegiate games started has been the single greatest predictor of NFL success for early first-round quarterbacks. Since 1997 seven quarterbacks who started fewer than 30 games in college have been drafted in the top ten: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith. Who’s the best player on that list? Michael Vick? Alex Smith? I don’t even know. All I know is that list does not leave me saying, “I gotta get me some of that.”
There is one positive indicator among Russell’s college stats: The player to whom he is most similar is Vince Young. Young started 32 games, Russell 29. Both completed 61.8 percent of their passes. Both lost starts because they platooned with an upper classman during their freshman year. Both are tall, strong, and obviously both are African-American. But the similarity only goes so far. Young started three more games than Russell. That doesn’t seem like a significant number, but it is. Young has also been only moderately successful as passer and will probably never be one of the best passers in the league. As long as he’s above-average, it’s not a problem, because he brings so much to the table with his running ability. Russell, on the other hand, will succeed or fail based on his ability to pass the ball. He’s decently mobile, but he is nowhere near Young’s caliber as a scrambler. Even if he lives up to the comparison and becomes a slightly worse passer than Vince Young, I doubt people will consider that a success.
All in all, I would be very wary investing $25 million guaranteed in a guy who barely won his starting job in college, doesn’t see the field well, is known to be immature, and has an unfavorable statistical profile. At least the Raiders will be able to admire the velocity and distance of Russell’s passes on their way to the arms of opposing defensive backs.
Brady Quinn
Quinn is pretty much your stereotypical stud quarterback prospect. A four-year starter out of Notre Dame, he is used to having the national spotlight focused on him. At 6-foot-4, 225 pounds he is physically reminiscent of another Charlie Weis pupil named Brady. In fact, he is definitely more mobile, and probably has a better arm than Tom. The big difference between the two is the skill for which the Patriots’ Brady is best known: staying cool under pressure.
Quinn has been in the national spotlight for so long that people have started to feel the need to tear him down. If you look for faults long enough you will find them. This is a major part of the reason why games started in college is so predictive. Players with few starts have not given scouts time to find their faults.
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Quinn’s slide is reminiscent of another recent top quarterback prospect who chose to stick around for his senior year, Matt Leinart. People nitpicked Leinart to pieces his senior year which caused him to drop farther than he should have; teams that passed on him are starting to regret it.
The big knock on Quinn is that he buckles under pressure. Last season, against the top defenses that Notre Dame faced, those that really pressured the quarterback well, Quinn came up short. This was particularly evident in LSU’s manhandling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. Now, I think it makes sense that a quarterback might struggle when his offensive line is obviously overmatched, but still Quinn’s ineptitude was worrisome. This is an important area for improvement, but it is far from a crippling weakness. Peyton Manning faced similar criticisms coming out of Tennessee and he seems to have done fine.
Quinn has a lot of things going for him. In addition to his good size and mobility, Quinn has an excellent arm. He doesn’t throw the deep ball as well as Russell does, but he has great zip on his intermediate throws. Quinn has no problems hitting the deep outs, and loves to throw crossing patterns over the middle. He has had plenty of experience making these NFL-type throws after spending the last two years under Weis’ tutelage.
Most people consider Quinn’s time under Weis one of his greatest selling points. However, a few are somewhat concerned by the huge jump in Quinn’s numbers after Weis’ arrival. Was Quinn’s success just a product of the system? I would suspect not, especially given the continued success of Tom Brady. Weis works wonders with quarterbacks, no doubt about that, but it seems that whatever he does to them is permanent.
In my opinion, Quinn’s college stats match up pretty well with his scouting profile. He completed 58.0 percent of his passes in college and started 46 games. This projects Quinn as a good pro quarterback, but not a great one. Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.
Are there any bad players on that list? The worst according to my numbers is Eli Manning, and he’s been decent (maybe not up to expectations, but decent). I would be happy to spend a top ten pick on most of those players.
Brady Quinn’s closest comparables paint an even prettier picture. Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb and Jay Cutler all started 45 games, and completed 59, 58 and 57 percent of their passes respectively. If Quinn’s pro career is as similar to those players as his college stats are, then he should be good enough to justify a high pick.
Charlie Weis recently said that Quinn is “a combination of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.” I’m a bit skeptical of that; it will be tough for Quinn to find time to both impregnate B-list actresses and teach the local kids how to boost an Escalade. All joking aside, Quinn is far from flawless as a prospect, but, in spite of his occasional shortcomings on the national stage, all evidence points to Quinn becoming a very good NFL quarterback.
Round Two
I’ve read in a couple of different places recently that the Raiders are thinking of passing on a quarterback in round one because they want to select Trent Edwards of Stanford in round two. I am unsure what to say about this decision. On the one hand, if they are really sure that Calvin Johnson is going to an outstanding player then they should take him. Drafting Russell so early would be a mistake, so avoiding that would have to be considered a positive.
On the other hand, Trent Edwards is not a good prospect either. He started 31 games at Stanford and completed 56.3 percent of his passes. He was never a particularly outstanding player, and he got hurt all four years. The projection system is not designed to handle injuries, and if he had stayed healthy Edwards would have played forty-some games, so perhaps he is better than the numbers say. Still, it’s hard for me to believe that a guy who couldn’t make it through a college season even once will be able to survive the NFL.
Teams looking for a QB in the second round should give Drew Stanton a long look. His play at Michigan State was uneven at best, but he has prototypical size, a strong arm and excellent mobility. Though he didn’t start many games in college (29), he did complete 64.2 percent of his passes. It’s tough to say too much about second-round QBs because there have not been many in recent years, but based on the limited data, completion percentage seems to gain greater importance in the second round. I wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on Stanton, especially given his erratic play at Michigan State, but he has all the tools to be a quality NFL starter and could be a good value in the second round.
John Beck of BYU is another guy that may sneak into the end of the second round. He posted an excellent completion percentage at BYU and was a four-year starter. He lacks lacks elite talent, but he makes good decisions with the ball. He has the makings of a good but not great, prospect, a la Matt Schaub.
Conclusions
Last year at this time I wrote that, “I was almost hoping that [the system] would indicate that one of the three top prospects was going to be a bust, just so I could say that I called it. But the system projects all three to be good pros.” Well, disappointed as I was with the lack of controversial predictions, I am glad that I stuck by the numbers. This year is different. The numbers are not quite black and white (Quinn’s completion percentage is a little low, Russell has a number of starts a little above complete bust territory), but they are pretty clear: Brady Quinn is a much better quarterback prospect than JaMarcus Russell.
I am hardly pleased to call out Russell as a likely bust, and given the right situation and good coaching I am sure he could defy the odds and become a good pro. However, players like Russell rarely do.
Here’s that under 30 starts list again: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith.
Sorry, Raiders fans.
For more about the method behind the College Quarterback Projection System, and projections for young quarterbacks already in the league, see David’s expanded article in Pro Football Prospectus 2007, available this summer.
posted 4-17-2007 at 10:55 AM by Guest Column || NFL Draft
2007 Quarterbacks Draft Preview
4/17/2007
by David Lewin
This year, as usual, a number of teams at the top of the draft are looking quarterback. The apples of scouts’ eyes this time around are Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell. Quinn is the All-American boy, a four-year starter at Notre Dame, with all the measurables that teams look for. Russell, an early entry after his junior year, is more of a dark horse. He never achieved the level of success Quinn did in college, but he soundly outplayed Quinn in their head-to-head matchup at the Sugar Bowl and has ridiculous physical talent.
Still, if we’ve learned anything about the NFL draft in recent years it’s that there’s no such thing as a can’t miss prospect, especially at the quarterback position. After Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, David Carr, etc. teams are more wary than ever about taking a QB high.
Last year, in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, I introduced a system for predicting the NFL passing performance of first- and second-round quarterbacks by looking at their on college statistics. (I may try to project running ability in the future, but it is not currently included.) After gathering and analyzing extensive data, I determined that games started and completion percentage in college were strong predictors of NFL success.
In fact, for first- and second-round quarterbacks these two variables explain roughly 65 percent of the variation in NFL performance. This is a remarkably high number given how much of an impact we believe that teammates have on a quarterback’s play. The system accurately predicted Philip Rivers’ breakout season, and the success or lack thereof, of many other young passers. With an eye on this research I take a closer look at the pro prospects of Russell, Quinn, and the other quarterbacks of the Class of 2007.
JaMarcus Russell
Russell is possibly the most physically talented quarterback prospect since John Elway. He’s 6-foot-6, 260 pounds with an arm that makes Brett Favre look like Danny Wuerffel. Russell is also a good runner and his arm strength allows him to hit any open receiver while he is on the move. He has huge hands, which help him avoid fumbles, and remarkably quick feet for such large man. Physically, Russell compares favorably to Daunte Culpepper, Byron Leftwich, and Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom have had some degree of success in the NFL. Assuming he can get his weight under control, Russell figures to be more mobile than Leftwich and Roethlisberger, but not as good of a runner as pre-injury Culpepper.
However, hidden behind Russell’s immense physical talent are a couple of major red flags. For starters, as recently as last summer’s training camp, Russell was engaged in a fierce quarterback battle with Matt Flynn and Ryan Perriloux. There were rumors that Russell was gone to the NFL at the end of the season no matter how the year went, simply, because he was unsure that he’d be able to hold onto the starting job again. Russell emerged from the controversy to have a great season, but it was the first of his career in which he was statistically the best passer on his team. While this history doesn’t doom Russell (Tom Brady had similar issues), I would still be wary of spending the number one overall pick and the 25 million dollar signing bonus that comes with it on a guy who wasn’t even the clear-cut starter his final year in college. Less than six months ago, very few experts considered Russell a first-round pick. FO’s own Michael David Smith, for example, wrote “I don’t see Russell as a first-round pick at all” in the discussion thread for Seventh Day Adventure on September 17th. Late risers usually fail to live up to the hype.
An even bigger issue with Russell is that he is an atrocious decision maker. He consistently throws the ball into double and triple coverage. Like Favre he often gets away with it by making spectacular throws. Still, field vision is the single most important quality for a quarterback. You can get away with being average in this regard if you have superior arm strength and accuracy, but Russell still has a ways to go before he can be considered average at seeing the field.
Russell also has the tendency to simply throw the ball up for grabs when he gets confused. If you watched the Sugar Bowl you saw this happen on an early in the fourth quarter interception. Russell clearly blew his underneath reads, panicked, and just lofted the ball up. It went pretty much unnoticed because he played an otherwise stellar game, but it is a recurring problem. These passes didn’t always end up picks in college because Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis and Early Doucet (all future first day picks) did a nice job of winning jump balls. That won’t fly at the next level.
Another concern is that Russell ran a fairly simple offense at LSU. The Tigers eschewed complexity partly to avoid confusing Russell, and partly because complexity was not necessary for an offense as talented as LSU’s. Russell can make very difficult throws when he knows where to go with the ball, so the LSU coaching staff didn’t have to get fancy. This will still be true to a degree in the NFL. In fact Drew Bledsoe did pretty well in his first few years in the league in a Patriots offense using similar principles. Unfortunately coaches often seem reluctant to play to their quarterback’s strengths (see Vick, Michael) and try to force unique players into the cookie-cutter mold. Russell will struggle with an NFL-style offense at first, but if he’s coached well (like Vince Young was last season) then this shouldn’t be a prohibitive factor in his development.
All of these issues are related. Because of Russell’s knack for making boneheaded plays at the worst possible times, he had Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux breathing down his neck his whole college career. Any team that drafts him must be prepared to tolerate some very questionable decisions interspersed with Russell’s trademark spectacular throws. He is also known to get down on himself and get rattled when things are not going well. All in all he has a number of characteristics that you don’t like to see in a young quarterback.
Russell’s understanding of the game is questionable at best. He constantly infuriated LSU fans with his inability to manage situations properly. Pretty much everything that Russell is can be summed up by describing the final drive from this year’s LSU-Auburn game.
Your Ad Here
LSU took over with 1:04 to go at their own 20-yard line trailing 7-3 with no timeouts remaining. On the first play from scrimmage Auburn sat back in a soft Cover-2 zone with the safeties deep. Russell didn’t notice this until it was too late and threw the ball out of bounds over the head of Craig Davis who was open running a vertical route down the sideline. The LSU coaching staff called Russell over and pointed out that he could pick the zone apart by throwing the ball to Davis in the Cover-2 hole at the sideline 20 yards downfield.
LSU then went out and ran the exact same play two more times. Russell hit Davis for gains of 20 and 21 yards. Davis was immediately drilled out of bounds both times. The Auburn safeties came flying downhill because they knew what was coming, but they couldn’t stop it. Russell simply got the ball there too fast.
All of a sudden LSU was driving. They had the ball on the Auburn 39-yard line with 50-odd seconds to go. Auburn, knowing they were in trouble, changed up their defense getting out of the soft Cover-2. Russell went back to pass, and seeing something different from what he was expecting, got confused. Luckily the protection was good and he was able to scan the field for four or five seconds. Still not seeing anything he liked, Russell began to roll to his right. He escaped the pressure and continued to move towards the sideline at a leisurely pace. Instead of throwing the ball away to stop the clock Russell decided to tuck it and duck upfield. He was tackled in-bounds at the line of scrimmage for no gain.
He got up without any sense of urgency and with a grin on his face. He seemed to be quite pleased with himself for avoiding a sack and maybe picking up a yard. After about a second he finally heard all the people screaming for him to spike the ball and began to hustle to the line. However by then it was too late. By the time LSU got set and spiked it there were only 25 seconds remaining. Russell had just wasted 20 crucial seconds. I have only rarely been angrier while watching a football game (not because I’m an LSU fan, I’m not, but because I like to see the game played intelligently).
Russell ended up bouncing back on the next play by hitting Dwayne Bowe for 20 yards putting LSU back in striking distance with under ten seconds remaining. However he followed that up with a stupid illegal formation penalty that pushed them back to the 24-yard line, and then hit Craig Davis for a 19-yard gain with no time left on the clock. Overall Russell’s numbers for the game looked pretty good (20/35, 267 yards, no TDs or picks), but when it counted he made certain LSU would come up short. That pretty much says all there is to say about Russell. He will tantalize you with impossible throws, but there is significant evidence that mentally he doesn’t have what it takes to be a great quarterback.
So, overall Russell has a pretty risky profile from a scouting perspective. He might be great, but he could be the next Jeff George (which, unless you’re Jason Whitlock, is not a good thing). That could be enough to keep teams from taking him first, but probably not. Here’s something that should: Russell started only 29 games at LSU. Over the past ten years, collegiate games started has been the single greatest predictor of NFL success for early first-round quarterbacks. Since 1997 seven quarterbacks who started fewer than 30 games in college have been drafted in the top ten: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith. Who’s the best player on that list? Michael Vick? Alex Smith? I don’t even know. All I know is that list does not leave me saying, “I gotta get me some of that.”
There is one positive indicator among Russell’s college stats: The player to whom he is most similar is Vince Young. Young started 32 games, Russell 29. Both completed 61.8 percent of their passes. Both lost starts because they platooned with an upper classman during their freshman year. Both are tall, strong, and obviously both are African-American. But the similarity only goes so far. Young started three more games than Russell. That doesn’t seem like a significant number, but it is. Young has also been only moderately successful as passer and will probably never be one of the best passers in the league. As long as he’s above-average, it’s not a problem, because he brings so much to the table with his running ability. Russell, on the other hand, will succeed or fail based on his ability to pass the ball. He’s decently mobile, but he is nowhere near Young’s caliber as a scrambler. Even if he lives up to the comparison and becomes a slightly worse passer than Vince Young, I doubt people will consider that a success.
All in all, I would be very wary investing $25 million guaranteed in a guy who barely won his starting job in college, doesn’t see the field well, is known to be immature, and has an unfavorable statistical profile. At least the Raiders will be able to admire the velocity and distance of Russell’s passes on their way to the arms of opposing defensive backs.
Brady Quinn
Quinn is pretty much your stereotypical stud quarterback prospect. A four-year starter out of Notre Dame, he is used to having the national spotlight focused on him. At 6-foot-4, 225 pounds he is physically reminiscent of another Charlie Weis pupil named Brady. In fact, he is definitely more mobile, and probably has a better arm than Tom. The big difference between the two is the skill for which the Patriots’ Brady is best known: staying cool under pressure.
Quinn has been in the national spotlight for so long that people have started to feel the need to tear him down. If you look for faults long enough you will find them. This is a major part of the reason why games started in college is so predictive. Players with few starts have not given scouts time to find their faults.
Your Ad Here
Quinn’s slide is reminiscent of another recent top quarterback prospect who chose to stick around for his senior year, Matt Leinart. People nitpicked Leinart to pieces his senior year which caused him to drop farther than he should have; teams that passed on him are starting to regret it.
The big knock on Quinn is that he buckles under pressure. Last season, against the top defenses that Notre Dame faced, those that really pressured the quarterback well, Quinn came up short. This was particularly evident in LSU’s manhandling of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. Now, I think it makes sense that a quarterback might struggle when his offensive line is obviously overmatched, but still Quinn’s ineptitude was worrisome. This is an important area for improvement, but it is far from a crippling weakness. Peyton Manning faced similar criticisms coming out of Tennessee and he seems to have done fine.
Quinn has a lot of things going for him. In addition to his good size and mobility, Quinn has an excellent arm. He doesn’t throw the deep ball as well as Russell does, but he has great zip on his intermediate throws. Quinn has no problems hitting the deep outs, and loves to throw crossing patterns over the middle. He has had plenty of experience making these NFL-type throws after spending the last two years under Weis’ tutelage.
Most people consider Quinn’s time under Weis one of his greatest selling points. However, a few are somewhat concerned by the huge jump in Quinn’s numbers after Weis’ arrival. Was Quinn’s success just a product of the system? I would suspect not, especially given the continued success of Tom Brady. Weis works wonders with quarterbacks, no doubt about that, but it seems that whatever he does to them is permanent.
In my opinion, Quinn’s college stats match up pretty well with his scouting profile. He completed 58.0 percent of his passes in college and started 46 games. This projects Quinn as a good pro quarterback, but not a great one. Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.
Are there any bad players on that list? The worst according to my numbers is Eli Manning, and he’s been decent (maybe not up to expectations, but decent). I would be happy to spend a top ten pick on most of those players.
Brady Quinn’s closest comparables paint an even prettier picture. Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb and Jay Cutler all started 45 games, and completed 59, 58 and 57 percent of their passes respectively. If Quinn’s pro career is as similar to those players as his college stats are, then he should be good enough to justify a high pick.
Charlie Weis recently said that Quinn is “a combination of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.” I’m a bit skeptical of that; it will be tough for Quinn to find time to both impregnate B-list actresses and teach the local kids how to boost an Escalade. All joking aside, Quinn is far from flawless as a prospect, but, in spite of his occasional shortcomings on the national stage, all evidence points to Quinn becoming a very good NFL quarterback.
Round Two
I’ve read in a couple of different places recently that the Raiders are thinking of passing on a quarterback in round one because they want to select Trent Edwards of Stanford in round two. I am unsure what to say about this decision. On the one hand, if they are really sure that Calvin Johnson is going to an outstanding player then they should take him. Drafting Russell so early would be a mistake, so avoiding that would have to be considered a positive.
On the other hand, Trent Edwards is not a good prospect either. He started 31 games at Stanford and completed 56.3 percent of his passes. He was never a particularly outstanding player, and he got hurt all four years. The projection system is not designed to handle injuries, and if he had stayed healthy Edwards would have played forty-some games, so perhaps he is better than the numbers say. Still, it’s hard for me to believe that a guy who couldn’t make it through a college season even once will be able to survive the NFL.
Teams looking for a QB in the second round should give Drew Stanton a long look. His play at Michigan State was uneven at best, but he has prototypical size, a strong arm and excellent mobility. Though he didn’t start many games in college (29), he did complete 64.2 percent of his passes. It’s tough to say too much about second-round QBs because there have not been many in recent years, but based on the limited data, completion percentage seems to gain greater importance in the second round. I wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on Stanton, especially given his erratic play at Michigan State, but he has all the tools to be a quality NFL starter and could be a good value in the second round.
John Beck of BYU is another guy that may sneak into the end of the second round. He posted an excellent completion percentage at BYU and was a four-year starter. He lacks lacks elite talent, but he makes good decisions with the ball. He has the makings of a good but not great, prospect, a la Matt Schaub.
Conclusions
Last year at this time I wrote that, “I was almost hoping that [the system] would indicate that one of the three top prospects was going to be a bust, just so I could say that I called it. But the system projects all three to be good pros.” Well, disappointed as I was with the lack of controversial predictions, I am glad that I stuck by the numbers. This year is different. The numbers are not quite black and white (Quinn’s completion percentage is a little low, Russell has a number of starts a little above complete bust territory), but they are pretty clear: Brady Quinn is a much better quarterback prospect than JaMarcus Russell.
I am hardly pleased to call out Russell as a likely bust, and given the right situation and good coaching I am sure he could defy the odds and become a good pro. However, players like Russell rarely do.
Here’s that under 30 starts list again: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith.
Sorry, Raiders fans.
For more about the method behind the College Quarterback Projection System, and projections for young quarterbacks already in the league, see David’s expanded article in Pro Football Prospectus 2007, available this summer.
posted 4-17-2007 at 10:55 AM by Guest Column || NFL Draft
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I'm not certain JaMarcus is the next Vince Young but aren't the raiders in a situation where they need to grasp for the possibility of the next Vince Young? Before last season TEN looked to be a mess(with the exception of having a very good coach). Young gave the entire franchise a rebirth. Young is that franchise at the moment. He nearly willed them from a top 4 pick in the draft to barely missingthe playoffs in less than a full season of starts. A true "Franchise QB" can do that. I don't see any rookie WR doing what Young did last season for TEN. Sure, Calvin Johnson is undoubtedly the safe pick to get a blue chip player out of this draft but are the raiders really in a position to take a safe pick?
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
I've tried to explain this side to no avail. I think it comes down to risk tolerance. But yeah, I agree with you.
While questioning some of Russell's decision-making is legitimate, the claim that he was on the verge of losing his job to Matt Flynn or Ryan Perilloux is not true. It was a popular idea among the fan base, but the coaching staff never veered from their confidence in Russell as the starter before last season. Flynn was coming off a great performance against Miami in the Peach Bowl, so there was some natural speculation. The coaches also said the QB job was open for competition before spring practices, but things were pretty clearly decided very early on, and I don't remember any real QB competition emering.
I don't know where the idea that LSU ran a simple offense is coming from. As I understand it, more and more of the playbook was opened up to Russell as he progressed, but I don't remember him being protected with an abbreviated playbook or a remedial offense. We pretty much ran an advanced passing attack, similar to the system Fisher ran with Davey and Mauck.
Quinn will be a good NFL QB in my opinion, but he's been everyone's golden boy for years. Russell is seen as a late comer, even though he's been a prep legend in the Southeast for years. Quinn was known to the whole country because he was at ND and played under Weiss, while Russell was known to the whole southeast and respected as one of the best QB prospects to ever come out of the state of Alabama. I just think people are reacting so differently to these two guys, because one (Russell) is seen as someone who came out of nowhere. I guess we'll see, but why can't they both be good?
I don't know where the idea that LSU ran a simple offense is coming from. As I understand it, more and more of the playbook was opened up to Russell as he progressed, but I don't remember him being protected with an abbreviated playbook or a remedial offense. We pretty much ran an advanced passing attack, similar to the system Fisher ran with Davey and Mauck.
Quinn will be a good NFL QB in my opinion, but he's been everyone's golden boy for years. Russell is seen as a late comer, even though he's been a prep legend in the Southeast for years. Quinn was known to the whole country because he was at ND and played under Weiss, while Russell was known to the whole southeast and respected as one of the best QB prospects to ever come out of the state of Alabama. I just think people are reacting so differently to these two guys, because one (Russell) is seen as someone who came out of nowhere. I guess we'll see, but why can't they both be good?
massraider
Footballguy
Russell "never achieved the level of success" that Quinn did? Really.
That is an interesting article, but the guy seems to be fairly biased, and has an agenda. Basically, he is saying:
Quinn has flaws, but nothing to get worried about.
Russell just chucked the ball around all day, and look! He didn't start the magic number of games.
That is an interesting article, but the guy seems to be fairly biased, and has an agenda. Basically, he is saying:
Quinn has flaws, but nothing to get worried about.
Russell just chucked the ball around all day, and look! He didn't start the magic number of games.
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stevegamer
Footballguy
He's not biased in the normal sense -towards one or the other player in particular, other than he believes in their system. Games started is huge for that system - it's their best correlating variable.
massraider
Footballguy
I would disagree. Funny, half of that magic formula was completion%, where Russell excels. And Russell had more starts than most of those other QBsa that he names as busts. By the way, I noticed Alex Smith on that list. All done, is he? Should be news to 49er fans.
Russell's red flags are major
, but Quinn's are easily correctable, like a tendency to buckle under pressure (cue the Manning comparison). Seems to me that Mr. "Every game at Notre Dame is a big game" should be better-equipped to handle the pressure. Shouldn't this be a major concern? No mention of Quinn's accuracy issues, especially on intermediate-to-long, which are pretty well-documented.He then goes on to pat himself on the back for calling all three QB's last year strong prospects, and congratulates himself, as Cutler, Leinart, and Young have apparently already turned into good QBs.
I think he looks at games started, completion%, and then shoehorns his 'analysis' to fit the conclusion that he has already made.
Granted, I am on the JaMarcus bandwagon, but I don't read that as a unbiased analysis, at all.
dparker713
Footballguy
Given the cap ramifications of the first pick, I disagree. You invest way too much money in the first few picks to have them fail. Blow any other pick and the team goes on. Blow the first pick overall on a QB and you're set back 3 years atleast, and in the case of the Texans its been 5 years. Whoever is first will get in excess of 20 million before he plays a down as a pro and you want to go with a high risk/reward prospect?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
But that's what I mean. Can the raiders be "set back" from where they currentyly are? What if JaMarcus turns out to be a complete bust? Will they be any worse than they currently are?'06 - 2 wins'05 - 4 wins'04 - 5 wins'03 - 4 winsARZ has had some very, very good WR's for several years now but it hasn't translated into much success. IMO if you're rebuilding an offense starting from wth WR's down is the wrong direction. Even if Calvin Johnson turns into a pro-bowler I think oak is three years away from being a SB contender if they are willing to go into this year with the QB's they are looking at now.
massraider
Footballguy
I am encouraged in my JaMarcius man-love by the apparent plan to have someone (MCCown/Rattay/Walter) start for a year while Russell adjusts and learns. Having the rook sit seems like a smart play.
dparker713
Footballguy
Yes, I think it can. They already have a good defense in place despite the horrid offense. They had a horrid line and QB play last year. Of those two you're more likely to find immediate help on the Oline. And its not like either QB is rating out at the top of people's boards. With that much money involved, you just cant afford to bust on a player.ETA - and if your argument is that the worst that can happen is that they're in the same spot in 3 years, isn't that exactly what you're trying to avoid with this pick?
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jurb26
Footballguy
Yeah, starting a rookie behind that Oline could actually lead to death. Smart play to bring in a sacrificial lamb.
Ok, let me put my opinion in here. The reason he didn't look good against Auburn and Florida is because Jimbo didn't put him in a position to look good. Jimbo went ultraconservative in those games. As far as why he wasn't hyped before the season, that's easy he plays for LSU. ESPN hypes guys from their chosen schools. USC, Ohio State, and Notre Dame get all the hype. Hell even Greenie picks on Golic every day for his mancrush on Quinn. Herbstreit could barely talk with Smith's nuts in his mouth. The reason you're starting to hear more about JR is because the NFL doesn't count on hype. They count on actual talent and JR's got the greatest upside of anyone not named Calvin in this draft. He's a beast with possibly the strongest arm EVER. Every time a black quarterback is judged you get the "he can't read defenses" crap. Bottomline, CJ is the best player in the draft but how good can he be with no one to get him the ball?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
That's only half my argument.The other half of my argument is a WR is much less likely to raise the level of play of an entire franchise than a QB. Look at Larry Fitzgerald. IMO he's one of the rising stars in the game and is already one of the leagues best. He's a great player but with spotty QB play and terrible OL play the Cardinals haven't even sniffed the playoffs. Haven't gotten within a game of .500 since he joined the team three years ago for that matter. They chose a great player three years ago by taking Fitzgerald BUT they are still in the same spot 3 years later. If you draft a great QB chances are he's going to at least get you to .500 in three years.
dparker713
Footballguy
Of the QBs drafted at the top of the first over the past 10 years, the list of players that have raised the level of the franchise is pretty much Peyton, maybe McNabb and its still too early to put that on VY. The Eagles however have fared alright without McNabb and they weren't in the franchise free fall that the Colts had been in. There are no other QBs that walk in and are the saviors. Rivers? He was replacing Brees. Palmer? Kitna lead the initial turnaround to 8-8 and was servicable. Qbs are important, but only a special few can turn a team around themselves. Even Peyton had Marvin and Edge. A QB is merely a piece of the puzzle and at the top of the draft its an extremely expensive puzzle piece.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
PetyonEliPalmerRoethlisbergerYoungMcNabbVickSmith... all raised their team up at least a full notch within three years after going high in the first round. I think Cutler and Leinart will join that list soon, but I'll admit I'm more bullish on both of them than most.So what's the list of WR first rounders that were the biggest influence in their team taking a big step forward? Randy Moss? Certainly QB is only a piece of the puzzle but it's a much bigger piece and more difficult to find/replace piece of the puzzle than WR.
dparker713
Footballguy
Eli has been mediocre at best. The Giants had a singular very bad year, they weren't a horrible franchise bereft of talent. He's hardly been their best player on offense.Palmer got them into the playoffs once and missed the playoffs once. There was a general raise in both talent and expectations when Marvin Lewis took over the job, Palmer hardly raised the team up by himself. The team was 8-8 afterall with Kitna.Roethlisberger slipped to the teens and went to a fairly talented team. He was hardly a driving force of their winnign the SB, most games he attempted less then 20 passes. And this past year he was a disaster.Young its still too early to say he'll lift up that franchise.McNabb is borderline in my book only because of injuries. But he probably qualifies.Vick did so for one year, he hasn't been able to repeat that performance since though. Smith hasn't done enough yet to judge one way or the other, but I'd hardly consider what he's done at this point raising the level of the team by himself. Even if you take your list as players as qualifying, you've still got an well over a 50% bust rate at that QB in the first. Just not worth the risk.
jurb26
Footballguy
This is totally inaccurate.
Code:
Year Opp Result | CMP ATT PYD PTD INT | RSH YD TD---------------------+--------------------------+----------------- 2005 cin W,31-17 | 14 19 208 3 0 | 4 3 0 2005 ind W,21-18 | 14 24 197 2 1 | 5 -3 0 2005 den W,34-17 | 21 29 275 2 0 | 3 12 1BoltBacker
Footballguy
That's not the only inaccuracy.... unless there's an eleventh-teen pick in the draft.I'll stand by that list as QB's that most would consider "franchise" QBs and eagerly await his list of "franchise" WR's. I can't think of a single WR in the league that could be traded for any of those QB's.
dparker713
Footballguy
Week 1 TEN W 34-7 9 11 Week 2 @HOU W 27-7 14 21 Week 3 NE L 23-20 12 28 Week 4 Bye Week 5 @SD W 24-22 17 26 Week 6 JAC L 23-17 (OT) Did Not Play Week 7 @CIN W 27-13 9 14 Week 8 BAL W 20-19 18 30 Week 9 @GNB W 20-10 Did Not Play Week 10 CLE W 34-21 Did Not Play Week 11 @BAL L 16-13 (OT) Did Not Play Week 12 @IND L 26-7 17 26 Week 13 CIN L 38-31 29 41 Week 14 CHI W 21-9 13 20 Week 15 @MIN W 18-3 10 15 Week 16 @CLE W 41-0 13 20 Week 17 DET W 35-21 7 16 WILD CARD @CIN W 31-17 14 19 DIVISIONAL @IND W 21-18 14 24 CONFERENCE @DEN W 34-17 21 29 SUBERBOWL SEA W 21-10 9 21 He played a total of 16 games that year including the playoffs. 7 times he only attempted 20 passes or less, 2 more times he attempted 21. They were 9-0 in those games. They were 4-3 in games he passed more than 21 times. So I should have said 21, sorry. And even though 11 isnt a teen, my point holds that he slipped and went to a decent team and he was not some unbelieveable talent that elevated the entire team by himself.
Im not saying you cant get a 'franchise' QB. Im saying that your claim that these guys single handedly turned around their franchises is just plain wrong in most cases. It takes talent all over the field to dramatically change the fortunes of a franchise except in a select few cases. Of WRs that have had that effect, I'd say Steve Smith and Torry Holt might be the only qualifiers, though Holt entered the league the same year they got Faulk. Randy moss turned a decent team into a great team, but thats not what were talking about here. Its turning a bad team into a good/great team, and really, and for me only Peyton and McNabb fit that bill at QB.
The Raiders should trade down if they want one of the QBs, neither one grades out at the top slot and to draft and pay them as such is a mistake.
Im not saying you cant get a 'franchise' QB. Im saying that your claim that these guys single handedly turned around their franchises is just plain wrong in most cases. It takes talent all over the field to dramatically change the fortunes of a franchise except in a select few cases. Of WRs that have had that effect, I'd say Steve Smith and Torry Holt might be the only qualifiers, though Holt entered the league the same year they got Faulk. Randy moss turned a decent team into a great team, but thats not what were talking about here. Its turning a bad team into a good/great team, and really, and for me only Peyton and McNabb fit that bill at QB.
The Raiders should trade down if they want one of the QBs, neither one grades out at the top slot and to draft and pay them as such is a mistake.
massraider
Footballguy
The whole "QB is too big a risk" thing has been done already. I know, I've been in the middle of most of those discussions.
I will say this, analyzing the top 10 QBs or whoever, that is only half the research. The other half is to look at the top 10 WRs, as BoltBacker suggests. After all, CJ is the other option here, yes? And those numbers are even worse. And the worst part is, even when they hit, it apparently has no affect on wins and losses. 3 of the very, very few hits on top 10 WRs in recent years are currently employed by the Cardinals, Lions, and Texans. All 3 teams within spitting distance of the Raiders #1 overall pick. Heck, the Cardinals have two franchise WRs.
If someone wants to use the BPA argument, "CJ is a better prospect, so he must be the pick", fine, that makes sense. I don't agree with it, but it's a valid point of view.
If you are going to roll in with, QBs are too risky, well, do the other half of the research.
I will say this, analyzing the top 10 QBs or whoever, that is only half the research. The other half is to look at the top 10 WRs, as BoltBacker suggests. After all, CJ is the other option here, yes? And those numbers are even worse. And the worst part is, even when they hit, it apparently has no affect on wins and losses. 3 of the very, very few hits on top 10 WRs in recent years are currently employed by the Cardinals, Lions, and Texans. All 3 teams within spitting distance of the Raiders #1 overall pick. Heck, the Cardinals have two franchise WRs.
If someone wants to use the BPA argument, "CJ is a better prospect, so he must be the pick", fine, that makes sense. I don't agree with it, but it's a valid point of view.
If you are going to roll in with, QBs are too risky, well, do the other half of the research.
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dparker713
Footballguy
Im not saying they need to pick a WR. Im saying they need to pick the player that both grades out the highest and has the least likelihood of busting given the enormous investment. I know full well that top of the draft WRs are atleast as risky as QBs at that same draft position. All the more reason to trade out of the first pick.
Bizkiteer
Footballguy
Given the recent history of top QB picks being busts...I think it nerve raking no matter who it is. I regards to having the overall #1 pick, there is a reason that your team got that spot, so naturally...your pick needs to help and at that spot, should be a "Franchise guy."
My fear would be that he has all the talent in the world, but gets shell shocked like Carr, Ramsey and a few other QB's that hit the ground more than their fair share in the first few years. It's got to hurt them mentally and then in turn get happy feet and never be comfortable in the pocket. The Raiders have an awful OL and there is a very good chance this could happen...EVEN if JaMarcus is the REAL deal.
My fear would be that he has all the talent in the world, but gets shell shocked like Carr, Ramsey and a few other QB's that hit the ground more than their fair share in the first few years. It's got to hurt them mentally and then in turn get happy feet and never be comfortable in the pocket. The Raiders have an awful OL and there is a very good chance this could happen...EVEN if JaMarcus is the REAL deal.
massraider
Footballguy
OK, suppose they can't trade out of the first pick.Which seems possible doesn't it? I mean, if you were running a team, would you want the #1 pick? Do you think there are a few teams with clever people running the show, and perhaps they are onto this line of thinking? So, if it is apparent to you that the Raiders should trade down, why does any other team want that pick?
So, the Raiders are stuck at #1. You do believe they should take CJ, no?
massraider
Footballguy
Actually, I think the recent history is pretty darn encouraging.1st round QBs over the last few years:YoungLeinartCutlerA. SmithRodgersCampbellManning Rivers RoethlisbergerLosmanPalmerLeftwichBoller GrossmanNow, of all those names since Carr/Harrington, only Boller is an out-and-out bust (and his career is not over, but it's a safe guess). That's not to say that any of these guys are all-pros. Just to say that none of them, except Boller, can be called a bust. That list looks pretty good to me actually.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Why didn't the Texans think of that!?
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
I have been a big Russell fan for a while and had him as a top 10 pick in early September. I still like him a lot, However, I think now he is a bit of a trendy pick on this board. Quinn gets bagged a lot for not elevating his play in big games, but I think you could have similiar issues with Russell as well. LSU was as talented as any team in the country and they still lost 2 games. Everyone talks about Quinn feasting on Navy and Air Force- but LSU played UL Lafeyette and Tulane. The SEC, while being elite at the top, still has Ole Miss and Mississippi State, which are typically fodder.
Des[ite blowing out ND in the bowl game, IMO the 2006 LSU season was a bit of a disappointment. That was team that could have played for a National Title. They did not, and Russell played poorly in their losses.
Des[ite blowing out ND in the bowl game, IMO the 2006 LSU season was a bit of a disappointment. That was team that could have played for a National Title. They did not, and Russell played poorly in their losses.
