Why Doing Preseason Homework is Useless (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

This team is 1-3:

QB Favre, Brees

RB: SA, Portis, Jordan, Jacobs

WR: Harrison, Walker, Holmes, Evans

TE: Heap, Daniels

K: Graham

DST: DAL, TB

D-UTIL: Ruud, Bulluck

this team is 3-1:

QB: Garrard, Cpep (picked up today for Rivers)

WR: RoyW, Mason, Roydell Williams, Andre Davis

RB: Westy (had him active for one game), Jamal Lewis, LenDale White, Buckhalter

TE: Clark

K: Reed

DST: Bears, Jags

D-UTIL: Willis, Peterson

 

[MDSkinner]

I don't see how this proves anything to be honest, other than the fact that one team was luckier in their stregth of schedule.

 

[sholditch]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

 

[MDSkinner]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

No disagreement there. That is why it is called gambling.

 

[Sid G]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Right. It's more undeniable proof of how ridiculous is people's degree of conviction in their preseason rankings, particularly with respect to players of similar quality.

 

[LionsFan78]

Dude, sometimes the reason is just pure bad luck, mixed with the harsh reality of injuries and power shifts in the NFL. But I'm sorry, pre-season homework is definitely not useless, 100% when it comes to the later rounds in all drafting formats. Just ask anybody who knew enough to actually draft guys like D. Ward and S. McDonald, both of which I've seen drafted this year.

 

[Banger]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Luck is definitely a factor there's no denying it but there's also things you can do to mitigate your luck to an extent. Not to toot my horn but I'm in the playoffs in nearly every league I play in each year. Luckinjuries effect me just like everyone else but I'm constantly looking to make deals, strengthen my 3rd, 4th, 5th wr/rb's, let alone my starters. Sometimes there's nothing you can do and you have one of those snakebit years though....

 

[ScoobyDoo]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Right. It's more undeniable proof of how ridiculous is people's degree of conviction in their preseason rankings, particularly with respect to players of similar quality.

LOLI think what drives him and a lot of people nuts is that the "paper" results never match the results on Sunday.I remember one year we had a guy walk in with a magazine he picked up off the rack on the way to the draft and he ends up going 13-3 (this particular league no playoffs) and wins the whole ball of wax. No waiver wire action every single week. No trading. No nothing.Meanwhile you have me who takes his time, gathers information, plays the waiver wire, trades when he can, Value drafts, and yet in my 6th year or so no significant results per hour worked. It does become frustrating after a while.

 

[Keys Myaths]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Right. It's more undeniable proof of how ridiculous is people's degree of conviction in their preseason rankings, particularly with respect to players of similar quality.

Yes, it's luck, but preparation is critical.If it's extreme--let's say 80% luck and 20% skill, wouldn't you still rather have the 20% advantage over your opponents? From a strictly gambling sense, that's a huge vig.No, you're not going to win every time, every year, and you're going to get screwed. But, that's half the fun, and it makes the times you win that much better.

 

[AnonymousBob]

You should have done a better job with your homework.

 

[MDSkinner]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Right. It's more undeniable proof of how ridiculous is people's degree of conviction in their preseason rankings, particularly with respect to players of similar quality.

Yes, it's luck, but preparation is critical.If it's extreme--let's say 80% luck and 20% skill, wouldn't you still rather have the 20% advantage over your opponents? From a strictly gambling sense, that's a huge vig.No, you're not going to win every time, every year, and you're going to get screwed. But, that's half the fun, and it makes the times you win that much better.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[fsufan]

are you unlucky when you lose or good/skilled at FF when you win

 

[teamroc]

This team is 1-3:QB Favre, BreesRB: SA, Portis, Jordan, JacobsWR: Harrison, Walker, Holmes, EvansTE: Heap, DanielsK: GrahamDST: DAL, TBD-UTIL: Ruud, Bulluckthis team is 3-1:QB: Garrard, Cpep (picked up today for Rivers)WR: RoyW, Mason, Roydell Williams, Andre DavisRB: Westy (had him active for one game), Jamal Lewis, LenDale White, BuckhalterTE: ClarkK: ReedDST: Bears, JagsD-UTIL: Willis, Peterson

Seems like preseason work is REQUIRED.SA, then Portis? Then Jordan? Like risk huh?36 year old Harrison? Brees?Lots of people were downgrading the Saints.The 1-3 team drafted like it was 2005-2006. Too bad things change.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

are you unlucky when you lose or good/skilled at FF when you win

Yes. That's the one privelege you are afforded.

 

[Ice Cream Man]

If it's extreme--let's say 80% luck and 20% skill, wouldn't you still rather have the 20% advantage over your opponents? From a strictly gambling sense, that's a huge vig.

If the breakdown is 80-20 (or 90-10, which is more my view) then at some point the cost of preparing outweighs the added benefit. That is, if it takes you 20 hours to get a 1% edge on someone who doesn't, then it may not be worth it. Just roll the dice.Your comment assumes preparation is free, when it is in fact very costly.. particularly to those who don't have a lot of leisure time. In this light, it is true that "doing preseason homework is useless" for many people.

 

[WisWolvrns]

I find injuries can decide some teams some years if you get a rash of them.

Albeit preseason research will atleast lessen your team from being full of players who aren't panning out. since drafting a bunch of duds and then adding a minimal amount of injured players is enough to tilt the scales...

I think a bigger problem is solid depth and starting lineup choices... if someone could figure out how to start the right players each week they would be gold.

Put another way, teams with great starters but no depth are at a high risk of injury effecting them... where as teams with strong depth can offset some injuries but have a weekly battle with bench points...

At this point, I'm not sure which I like least... injuries or bench point... both are quite frustrating, but are part of the "randomness" of this game... (in lieu of dice/cards)

 

[sholditch]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Luck is definitely a factor there's no denying it but there's also things you can do to mitigate your luck to an extent. Not to toot my horn but I'm in the playoffs in nearly every league I play in each year. Luckinjuries effect me just like everyone else but I'm constantly looking to make deals, strengthen my 3rd, 4th, 5th wr/rb's, let alone my starters. Sometimes there's nothing you can do and you have one of those snakebit years though....

Perhaps I need to extrapolate on just how much luck has factored into team 1. As you might have guessed, team 1 is my team. For my one win, I had the high-score for the week. For my three losses, I had the second-highest score of the week, and happened to be playing the team with the highest score that week. So, for each loss, had I been playing any other team in the league, I would have won. That, my friends, is bad luck, plain and simple.

 

[hellz_fireflies]

This team is 1-3:QB Favre, BreesRB: SA, Portis, Jordan, JacobsWR: Harrison, Walker, Holmes, EvansTE: Heap, DanielsK: GrahamDST: DAL, TBD-UTIL: Ruud, Bulluckthis team is 3-1:QB: Garrard, Cpep (picked up today for Rivers)WR: RoyW, Mason, Roydell Williams, Andre DavisRB: Westy (had him active for one game), Jamal Lewis, LenDale White, BuckhalterTE: ClarkK: ReedDST: Bears, JagsD-UTIL: Willis, Peterson

Going forward who do you think is the better team, not record wise team wise?

 

[MDSkinner]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Luck is definitely a factor there's no denying it but there's also things you can do to mitigate your luck to an extent. Not to toot my horn but I'm in the playoffs in nearly every league I play in each year. Luckinjuries effect me just like everyone else but I'm constantly looking to make deals, strengthen my 3rd, 4th, 5th wr/rb's, let alone my starters. Sometimes there's nothing you can do and you have one of those snakebit years though....

Perhaps I need to extrapolate on just how much luck has factored into team 1. As you might have guessed, team 1 is my team. For my one win, I had the high-score for the week. For my three losses, I had the second-highest score of the week, and happened to be playing the team with the highest score that week. So, for each loss, had I been playing any other team in the league, I would have won. That, my friends, is bad luck, plain and simple.

It happens. Theoretically, if you can keep scoring at that pace with your team (you are clearly the high scorer in the league) things will even out and you will most assuredly make the playoffs. If you happen to play the highest scoring team every week you are hosed....but that is unlikely.If you team continues to average the highest number of PPG, I think that will be a very good indicator that regardless of the luck involved that your preparation was solid and you will have done your part.

 

[tomarken]

Perhaps I need to extrapolate on just how much luck has factored into team 1. As you might have guessed, team 1 is my team. For my one win, I had the high-score for the week. For my three losses, I had the second-highest score of the week, and happened to be playing the team with the highest score that week. So, for each loss, had I been playing any other team in the league, I would have won. That, my friends, is bad luck, plain and simple.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Luck is definitely a factor there's no denying it but there's also things you can do to mitigate your luck to an extent. Not to toot my horn but I'm in the playoffs in nearly every league I play in each year. Luckinjuries effect me just like everyone else but I'm constantly looking to make deals, strengthen my 3rd, 4th, 5th wr/rb's, let alone my starters. Sometimes there's nothing you can do and you have one of those snakebit years though....

Perhaps I need to extrapolate on just how much luck has factored into team 1. As you might have guessed, team 1 is my team. For my one win, I had the high-score for the week. For my three losses, I had the second-highest score of the week, and happened to be playing the team with the highest score that week. So, for each loss, had I been playing any other team in the league, I would have won. That, my friends, is bad luck, plain and simple.

LOLthat's the fun of head-to-head match-ups.But, then they have leagues that try and flatten that out by either having no playoffs so your overall record flattens out over the year and its a better reflection of your play. Or, you play everybody every week and every game counts in which case you would probably be winning the whole league.And none of that helps you when you look at the cheat sheet for the week and have great match-ups and at least 4 top 5 players and all 4 of them do nothing.The 20% skill number is about right. But the difference between the average fantasy football player and the footballguys shark in getting to that 20% is probably only about 5%. And that's fantasy football.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Perhaps I need to extrapolate on just how much luck has factored into team 1. As you might have guessed, team 1 is my team. For my one win, I had the high-score for the week. For my three losses, I had the second-highest score of the week, and happened to be playing the team with the highest score that week. So, for each loss, had I been playing any other team in the league, I would have won. That, my friends, is bad luck, plain and simple.

I love that icon.

 

[Keepers]

How many fantasy points has each team scored?

 

[sholditch]

This team is 1-3:QB Favre, BreesRB: SA, Portis, Jordan, JacobsWR: Harrison, Walker, Holmes, EvansTE: Heap, DanielsK: GrahamDST: DAL, TBD-UTIL: Ruud, Bulluckthis team is 3-1:QB: Garrard, Cpep (picked up today for Rivers)WR: RoyW, Mason, Roydell Williams, Andre DavisRB: Westy (had him active for one game), Jamal Lewis, LenDale White, BuckhalterTE: ClarkK: ReedDST: Bears, JagsD-UTIL: Willis, Peterson

Seems like preseason work is REQUIRED.SA, then Portis? Then Jordan? Like risk huh?36 year old Harrison? Brees?Lots of people were downgrading the Saints.The 1-3 team drafted like it was 2005-2006. Too bad things change.

Before you get too proud of yourself:Got SA at seventh overall and he has been one of the more consistent producers on the team, Portis in the third and thus far has not missed one game due to injuryFavre, Brees, and Jordan were plucked from the WW for Pennington, Leinart, and LenDale White, respectivelyWalker was acquired via trade for Jamal and Mason (trade with team 2)so basically everything you pointed out is completely irrelevant. And I don't remeber hearing anyone, anywhere, say Harrison would be a bust. I do remember lots of people saying there was no reason he wouldn't finish WR1. POINT BEING that no one knows what is going to happen season to season, so there's not much point spending so much time doing all the rankings and all the other crap. Luck is a huge factor, and most projections are totally off from reality. I'm sure you knew that Randy Moss would be the no. 1 receiver and two of the leagues best offenses would turn into total fantasy wastelands in one offseason, but most of the rest of us have been kinda surprised. Better, IMO, to just forget about it all summer and check in around August 15.

 

[Banger]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Luck is definitely a factor there's no denying it but there's also things you can do to mitigate your luck to an extent. Not to toot my horn but I'm in the playoffs in nearly every league I play in each year. Luckinjuries effect me just like everyone else but I'm constantly looking to make deals, strengthen my 3rd, 4th, 5th wr/rb's, let alone my starters. Sometimes there's nothing you can do and you have one of those snakebit years though....

Perhaps I need to extrapolate on just how much luck has factored into team 1. As you might have guessed, team 1 is my team. For my one win, I had the high-score for the week. For my three losses, I had the second-highest score of the week, and happened to be playing the team with the highest score that week. So, for each loss, had I been playing any other team in the league, I would have won. That, my friends, is bad luck, plain and simple.

I had a year like that last year and started out 1-4 in a dynasty league due to the same thing you experienced. I had a firesale of sorts thinking I was out of it, caught fire in the 2nd half and lost in the championship game by a couple points. In our league we put in a power ranking provision for the final wildcard playoff spot to mitigate this situation. So the record is just 1/3 of the criteria and your breakdown/points still matter.

 

[sholditch]

How many fantasy points has each team scored?

team 1: 600.5team 2: 558and I know :shirt: just thought some others might relate, and wanted to point out just how much luck can be a deciding factor. And not just in drafting and projections. For instance, the team that beat me last night did so because Maroney was a last-second scratch and Sammy Morris went nuts with him out. Also, the team with the most points (691) is 2-2.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

How many fantasy points has each team scored?

team 1: 600.5team 2: 558and I know :shirt: just thought some others might relate, and wanted to point out just how much luck can be a deciding factor. And not just in drafting and projections. For instance, the team that beat me last night did so because Maroney was a last-second scratch and Sammy Morris went nuts with him out. Also, the team with the most points (691) is 2-2.

Oh, Many of us can relate. I'm 2-2 and on paper I should be 4-0. Right now I am out of a playoff spot entirely.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Your comment assumes preparation is free, when it is in fact very costly.. particularly to those who don't have a lot of leisure time.

My preparation each year isn't free but doesn't take much time at all. I paypal Joe and David $24.95 a day or two before the draft and hit "print".

 

[Black]

This team is 1-3:QB Favre, BreesRB: SA, Portis, Jordan, JacobsWR: Harrison, Walker, Holmes, EvansTE: Heap, DanielsK: GrahamDST: DAL, TBD-UTIL: Ruud, Bulluckthis team is 3-1:QB: Garrard, Cpep (picked up today for Rivers)WR: RoyW, Mason, Roydell Williams, Andre DavisRB: Westy (had him active for one game), Jamal Lewis, LenDale White, BuckhalterTE: ClarkK: ReedDST: Bears, JagsD-UTIL: Willis, Peterson

Going forward who do you think is the better team, not record wise team wise?

FF is about luck, but I think depth, whether drafted and patiently sat on or working the wire/trades to improve your team at all positions has alot to do with it. I like to think that having depth helps you not tank when the inevitable injuries occur. After that, it's who's hot weeks 14-16.There is risk/reward for all players, and at the end of the day, it's a game of odds. Your homework helps you win more times than not (hopefully).

 

[Keepers]

How many fantasy points has each team scored?

team 1: 600.5team 2: 558and I know :shirt: just thought some others might relate, and wanted to point out just how much luck can be a deciding factor. And not just in drafting and projections. For instance, the team that beat me last night did so because Maroney was a last-second scratch and Sammy Morris went nuts with him out. Also, the team with the most points (691) is 2-2.

Think we can all relate since if you are playing this game long enough and/or have enough teams it is ineviatable that you are going to have a team that should have made the playoffs not make it because of dumb luck ... doesn't change the fact that preseason homework is vital and 9 times out of 10 the "better" team will do better for the year.

 

[Saints-Man]

it's not that serious of a post. Just a reminder of how much luck factors into this hobby of ours.

Luck is definitely a factor there's no denying it but there's also things you can do to mitigate your luck to an extent. Not to toot my horn but I'm in the playoffs in nearly every league I play in each year. Luckinjuries effect me just like everyone else but I'm constantly looking to make deals, strengthen my 3rd, 4th, 5th wr/rb's, let alone my starters. Sometimes there's nothing you can do and you have one of those snakebit years though....

Perhaps I need to extrapolate on just how much luck has factored into team 1. As you might have guessed, team 1 is my team. For my one win, I had the high-score for the week. For my three losses, I had the second-highest score of the week, and happened to be playing the team with the highest score that week. So, for each loss, had I been playing any other team in the league, I would have won. That, my friends, is bad luck, plain and simple.

True, but I would rather have your team at 1-3 than some other teams at 2-2. You are at most 1/3 through your season, and probably closer to 1/4. Your team will start racking up wins and the goal of the regular season is solely to make the playoffs. With that team, you still have a shot.

 

[JAA]

HEY EVERYBODY, LOOK AT ME ... MY FANTASY FOOTBALL TEAM SUCKS!!!

 

[Mene]

Honestly, I think the composition of your league really dictates how important the pre-season research is, at least in my experience. I am in 2 leagues that I have been in for 5 or so years. Both are 12 teams, 17 man roster, with identical scoring.

League A. I would say 9/12 of the guys are believers in pre-season research. They don't rely on just one source for their info, they monitor injuries and job status of players league wide, very active on the WW and in trade talks... all the things a competitive fantasy owner should do. The other 3 are magazine guy. Draft right from the magazines rankings, no creativity, and the only injuries they care about are to their own guys. The ones who handcuff both of their top RB's, and draft 2 Def, K, and TE. In this league, things seem to go as expected. Those 3 are never competitive, and the other nine usually battle all year long, with maybe one or two being really fortunate and stepping ahead.

League B. 5 or 6/12 fit the above description of a competitive fantasy owner. The other 6 show up on draft day with either a magazine, or the top 200 they printed that morning from ESPN, CNNSI, or some other mainstream source. This league is completely unpredictable, with 2 of the last 5 superbowl winners being the magazine types. Every year at least one of them rattles off an incredible season, and every year at least one of the 5 or 6 "competitive" guys misses the play-off's.

I am someone who starts research from NFL Draft Day, I use multiple sources (FBG leads the pack of course), and I usually go into my draft with a list that I have composed and believe in. In league A, I am always near the top, and have felt that I could have won the championship come play-off time each year. League B, I am up and down. I haven't missed the play-off's yet, but no championships, and multiple losses where I was left completely befuddled.

 

[AB in DC]

How many fantasy points has each team scored?

team 1: 600.5team 2: 558

You've got a better team but a worse record. Here's a newsflash: this happens in almost every head-to-head league that exists.

and I know :shirt: just thought some others might relate, and wanted to point out just how much luck can be a deciding factor.

No offense, but 99% of the people reading this thread already know this. Are you new to fantasy football or something?

And not just in drafting and projections. For instance, the team that beat me last night did so because Maroney was a last-second scratch and Sammy Morris went nuts with him out. Also, the team with the most points (691) is 2-2.

None of this has anything to do with drafting and projections or "doing preseason homework". This has to do with being in a head-to-head league. If you don't like it, find a survivor league, or total points league, or any other league where head-to-head record isn't the deciding factor.