EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
Its a tricky call this week. On one hand Brandon Lloyd will most likely be guarded by Champ Bailey, but this also means single coverage. Is Brandon Lloyd better than Champ Bailey in the eyes of the FBG Staff?
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Why is Brandon Lloyd ranked so high? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EHRMAHGERD
- Start date
Maven
Footballguy
I said the same thing vs Hou with Andre Johnson and he caught a long one. Its possible and theyre at home.
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
I am just trying to figure out the reasoning behind him being #6. He got a garbage touchdown at the end of last weeks game. You look at a reciever like Marques Colston same stats as Lloyd coming into last week. Colston goes ham gets 153 yards and a touchdown. Colston has a more favorable matchup. So why is Lloyd 6th while Colston is 17th? Was it because of the bonding moment Brady and Lloyd shared after the garbage touchdown? I dont see anything else.
The_Wolfman
Footballguy
It is certain that he's going to shadow him? I just read a blurb on Rotoworld saying that Bailey typically lines up on the left side of the defensive formation while Lloyd spends the majority of his snaps lining up on the left side of the offensive formation (opposite side from Bailey).
Unless this info is just plain wrong I have trouble seeing why the Broncos would adjust their D just to match up with Lloyd. Lloyd is a good WR but it's not like he's Calvin Johnson out there, the Pats have a ton of other weapons.
Unless this info is just plain wrong I have trouble seeing why the Broncos would adjust their D just to match up with Lloyd. Lloyd is a good WR but it's not like he's Calvin Johnson out there, the Pats have a ton of other weapons.
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
No its not certain. I just dont see his odds going up if he isn't single covered by Bailey either.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Denver's safeties are horrible.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
I would guess they are looking at Denver's defense as a whole and the pace they think the game is going to be played at.
Should be a high scoring game. But I'm with you, this matchup worries me if Champ is on him the whole game.
Should be a high scoring game. But I'm with you, this matchup worries me if Champ is on him the whole game.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Champ Bailey isnt a reason to bench a WR
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
Ok so the reasoning so far is: Brandon Lloyd will benefit from a high scoring shoot out. Denver has horrible Safeties Brandon Lloyd now currently has his own meme.last one is my potential reasoning for starting him over Colstonhttp://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/patriots_wr_brandon_lloyd_smiling_while_making_catch_inspires_new_meme_pics/11862871I wonder how high Colston will go up now that Lance Moore is out.
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This.D. Moore has a huge statline last Sunday if Palmer doesn't overthrow him for a bomb TD after he toasted Bailey.
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
Understandable but is Champ Bailey a reason to bump Lloyd up to 6th this week. Is Champ Bailey a reason to start Lloyd over a New Orleans Wide Reciever?
The point is you need to make Champ Bailey much less of a factor in how you view Lloyd's potential production Sunday. Just as an aside, Champ normally stays on the left side regardless. So if they move Lloyd around he will have different matchups.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
so your thinnly veiled WDIS question of Lloyd vs Colston is what you want answered? Start em both. If you have a great WR1 option like Marshall or Julio and only need 1 of them, roll with Colston.
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
Lol Thanks! I have Julio Jones so I will start Colston
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EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
I will admit it was a thinnly vieled WDIS question but I have already made my decision and I think it is still a good topic to discuss. Brandon Lloyd #6 this week... really?
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EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
Ok I get that so Champ Bailey aside what has Brandon Lloyd done so far this year with his 4o plus targets? a garbage touchdown? did anybody watch that game he was completely absent until New England had a clear win in the 4th quarter.
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
I am not unhappy about it Brandon Lloyd magically squirted up to 6th this week, but there is no sound reasoning
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
HA! Updated Cheat sheet for WR
Brandon Lloyd 10
Marques Colston 11
That makes more sense
Brandon Lloyd 10
Marques Colston 11
That makes more sense
Goat Herders
Footballguy
Do garbage touchdowns not count?
Rovers
Footballguy
Not really. Lloyd is still tremendously OVER valued by FBG. In a 0.5 PPR system, Lloyd is WR25 YTD with 48 points. That's on 40 targets, tied for 9th in the NFL for WR's. There are 16 WR's with fewer targets and more FF points than Lloyd. Welker has 3 less targets and 8.6 more FF points.
Some examples of WRs who trail him:
By 6 pts on 32 targets- D Bess
By 8.6 pts on 25 targets- M Floyd
By 12.3 pts on 14 targets- Kerley
Lloyd averages 1.2 pts per target. Welker averages over 1.5 pts per target. B Marshall is at 1.65/target.
S Smith is at 1.77/target. Kerley is 2.55/target. M Floyd is 1.58/target.OK, so assume Lloyd continues to get 10 targets a game. Even if he contiues to catch 62.5% of his targets, his miserable 11.5 yards per catch further lowers his value. He was supposed to be the deep threat for NE.
So far, the hype and his ranking has been very over blown. He has been consistantly ranked top 10 to 15. His actual so far is 25. He doesn't make the top 30 in TD catches either.
So, what happens when Hernandez returns? His targets and everything else will go down. If he isn't getting any TD's now, how will he improve when Hernandez returns?
I'm hoping Lloyd has a good game against Denver. Then he's a perfect sell high.
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
The game approaching us, New England Vs Denver is not going to include garbage touchdowns in my opinion. So do I want to put faith in an overrated WR who's only touchdown of the season was garbage? I also think the fact that it was a garbage is a negative in this instance, especially when deciding between Lloyd and numerous other WR who may have a good game and have the statistics to back it up.'Goat Herders said:
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
Very Interesting post! Thank You! I mean I have Brandon Lloyd on my team. He has not produced near the caliber he has been projected to produce. Not even close! Do I hope he does this week? Yes will he do it on my bench? Yes.'Rovers said:
Buffaloes
Footballguy
where are you getting this? Champ lines up exclusively (or almost exclusively) at LCB and Denver does not run man-to-man coverage 100% of the time
Grahamburn
Footballguy
NE has been notorious for running up the score for several years now. I'd take it as a positive for Lloyd that they continue to do so. That was a beautiful throw and catch, and the camaraderie between Brady and Lloyd after the play would make me excited about Lloyd's prospects going forward.
knuckleballah22
Footballguy
NE has been notorious for running up the score for several years now. I'd take it as a positive for Lloyd that they continue to do so. That was a beautiful throw and catch, and the camaraderie between Brady and Lloyd after the play would make me excited about Lloyd's prospects going forward.
Exactly what I thought. The chemistry between Brady and Lloyd will only get better.
Exactly what I thought. The chemistry between Brady and Lloyd will only get better.
Very Interesting post! Thank You! I mean I have Brandon Lloyd on my team. He has not produced near the caliber he has been projected to produce. Not even close! Do I hope he does this week? Yes will he do it on my bench? Yes.
I really don't get posts like this.
Prior to the season, Lloyd was universally seen as a 4th or 5th rounder in 12 team leagues. We're talking about a guy that was going mid-50s on draft boards. He was also one of the most polarizing guys -- lots of guys felt he should be higher for reasons that are NE offense, McDaniels familiarity, etc. while others had him even lower due to the many NE receiving options, a history of NE failures trying to fill the outside, etc. Understanding all this, his ADP in the 50s made sense.
On my board prior to the season, he was my 18th ranked WR. I drafted him in the 5th round.
In my scoring system with PPR, Lloyd is ranked exactly 18th.
I'm extremely happy with this. To be honest, I expected it to take longer for Brady and Lloyd to find each other. IMHO, they are ahead of schedule and I think there is a VERY good chance that Lloyd outproduces his draft position by a significant margin.
So unless you drafted Lloyd in the third round, what the hell are you griping about?
KY
I really don't get posts like this.
Prior to the season, Lloyd was universally seen as a 4th or 5th rounder in 12 team leagues. We're talking about a guy that was going mid-50s on draft boards. He was also one of the most polarizing guys -- lots of guys felt he should be higher for reasons that are NE offense, McDaniels familiarity, etc. while others had him even lower due to the many NE receiving options, a history of NE failures trying to fill the outside, etc. Understanding all this, his ADP in the 50s made sense.
On my board prior to the season, he was my 18th ranked WR. I drafted him in the 5th round.
In my scoring system with PPR, Lloyd is ranked exactly 18th.
I'm extremely happy with this. To be honest, I expected it to take longer for Brady and Lloyd to find each other. IMHO, they are ahead of schedule and I think there is a VERY good chance that Lloyd outproduces his draft position by a significant margin.
So unless you drafted Lloyd in the third round, what the hell are you griping about?
KY
EHRMAHGERD
Footballguy
I am griping about his projected rank... What are you griping about? me griping about his projected rank? haha
This is not quite the same as flipping a coin 10 times and getting tails 8 times and then telling people there is an 80% chance of getting tails, but it is still a point with a very poor foundation.First of all, Lloyd led the team in targets while Hernandez was in the lineup, so no, your assumption that his targets and everything will go down is not sound.'Rovers said:
But the main problem is that it has only been 4 games and despite both being the deep threat and the top target on the team, Lloyd only has 1 TD. We cannot assume this trend will continue and will keep his points per target down.
Lloyd and Brady have narrowly missed on several bombs. Their chemistry will only grow as the year progresses. If Lloyd is ranked 18th while being slightly out of sync with Brady, then it should not be a stretch to think he might be a top 10 WR in a game that should be a shootout.
Rovers
Footballguy
I think you missed the point. I'm not saying bench Lloyd. I'm saying he hasn't lived up to his FBG ranking, not even close. IIRC, one week he was a top five. Simply put, he has greatly underperformed his weekly ranking. Simple enough, or not?This is not quite the same as flipping a coin 10 times and getting tails 8 times and then telling people there is an 80% chance of getting tails, but it is still a point with a very poor foundation.First of all, Lloyd led the team in targets while Hernandez was in the lineup, so no, your assumption that his targets and everything will go down is not sound.'Rovers said:
But the main problem is that it has only been 4 games and despite both being the deep threat and the top target on the team, Lloyd only has 1 TD. We cannot assume this trend will continue and will keep his points per target down.
Lloyd and Brady have narrowly missed on several bombs. Their chemistry will only grow as the year progresses. If Lloyd is ranked 18th while being slightly out of sync with Brady, then it should not be a stretch to think he might be a top 10 WR in a game that should be a shootout.
If you want to count long completion attempts that failed, go right ahead. That has happened often to a jarge number of QB/WR combos this year. That list would take a page to produce. Incompletions don't count in FF.
He still starts in my start 4 WR lineup, but he isn't WR1 or WR2. He's borderline WR3. Until he performs as a top 10 WR... he isn't one, but FBG keeps ranking him that way. Have I made myself clear?
Oh, and BTW, someone is goung to lose targets on that NE offense when Hernandez returns. Simple math. You don't think it will be Lloyd, fine, as good a guess as any.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Agreed. Pats homer and I think hed ranked way to high. A good rule of thumb once we reach week 5 is that no one who has yet to finish top 5 should be ranked that high.I think you missed the point. I'm not saying bench Lloyd. I'm saying he hasn't lived up to his FBG ranking, not even close. IIRC, one week he was a top five. Simply put, he has greatly underperformed his weekly ranking. Simple enough, or not?This is not quite the same as flipping a coin 10 times and getting tails 8 times and then telling people there is an 80% chance of getting tails, but it is still a point with a very poor foundation.First of all, Lloyd led the team in targets while Hernandez was in the lineup, so no, your assumption that his targets and everything will go down is not sound.'Rovers said:
But the main problem is that it has only been 4 games and despite both being the deep threaRidley had great games vs TEN and BUF but not so much vs ARI and BAL. Small sample size but hes a matchup rb in a crowded backfield. Betting on him is cool but your also betting against Vereen, Woodhead and Boldin to not get touches. I obviously don't own him but I'd sell right now at a premium. Den-sea-NYJ won't be games where everybody can get 100 yards and a TD. t and the top target on the team, Lloyd only has 1 TD. We cannot assume this trend will continue and will keep his points per target down.
Lloyd and Brady have narrowly missed on several bombs. Their chemistry will only grow as the year progresses. If Lloyd is ranked 18th while being slightly out of sync with Brady, then it should not be a stretch to think he might be a top 10 WR in a game that should be a shootout.
If you want to count long completion attempts that failed, go right ahead. That has happened often to a jarge number of QB/WR combos this year. That list would take a page to produce. Incompletions don't count in FF.
He still starts in my start 4 WR lineup, but he isn't WR1 or WR2. He's borderline WR3. Until he performs as a top 10 WR... he isn't one, but FBG keeps ranking him that way. Have I made myself clear?
Oh, and BTW, someone is goung to lose targets on that NE offense when Hernandez returns. Simple math. You don't think it will be Lloyd, fine, as good a guess as any.
*sigh* No, I didn't miss your point at all. You completely whiffed on mine. I'm agreeing that he hasn't been living up to his ranking. His ranking has been based on the large amount of targets he's receiving. Personally, I'm not betting against a guy averaging 10 targets (both with and without Hernandez in the lineup) on that offense. It appears there needs to be a little chemistry worked out here, but if he gets 140-160 targets this year, I feel confident he'll do much better than 4 TDs. He's on pace for 100/1148/4. That TD number just doesn't seem right. It'll average out and when it does, he'll be top 10. The "until he performs as a top 10 WR he isn't one" is just silly. You want Dodds to predict the chemistry will continue to flounder? You want people to risk missing his 140 yds 2 TD game just because Brady/Lloyd haven't connected on any long receptions so far? This guy is a ticking time bomb. Lloyd is on pace for 160 targets. Randy Moss saw 159 in his record breaking year. I'm not trying to say he is Randy Moss, but 10 targets a game is enough on this offense for the deep threat to be easily top 10. Bottom line, he belongs ranked in the top 10 until he stops receiving those targets. Have I made myself clear?'Rovers said:I think you missed the point. I'm not saying bench Lloyd. I'm saying he hasn't lived up to his FBG ranking, not even close. IIRC, one week he was a top five. Simply put, he has greatly underperformed his weekly ranking. Simple enough, or not?'FF Ninja said:This is not quite the same as flipping a coin 10 times and getting tails 8 times and then telling people there is an 80% chance of getting tails, but it is still a point with a very poor foundation.First of all, Lloyd led the team in targets while Hernandez was in the lineup, so no, your assumption that his targets and everything will go down is not sound.
But the main problem is that it has only been 4 games and despite both being the deep threat and the top target on the team, Lloyd only has 1 TD. We cannot assume this trend will continue and will keep his points per target down.
Lloyd and Brady have narrowly missed on several bombs. Their chemistry will only grow as the year progresses. If Lloyd is ranked 18th while being slightly out of sync with Brady, then it should not be a stretch to think he might be a top 10 WR in a game that should be a shootout.
If you want to count long completion attempts that failed, go right ahead. That has happened often to a jarge number of QB/WR combos this year. That list would take a page to produce. Incompletions don't count in FF.
He still starts in my start 4 WR lineup, but he isn't WR1 or WR2. He's borderline WR3. Until he performs as a top 10 WR... he isn't one, but FBG keeps ranking him that way. Have I made myself clear?
Oh, and BTW, someone is goung to lose targets on that NE offense when Hernandez returns. Simple math. You don't think it will be Lloyd, fine, as good a guess as any.
Rovers
Footballguy
I think you did. You beleive that a WR who has performed as a high end WR3 should be ranked in the top ten every week because you believe he will eventually have a top ten week, correct? You also believe that when Hernadez returns, Llyod will only perform better. OK, I think I got it now. Come to think of it, I think I had it before, too. We're 1/4 of the way into the season. If Lloyd is going to finish as a WR1, he has a lot of catching up to do. Targets and incomlpetions still don't get FF points. Potential doesn't either.*sigh* No, I didn't miss your point at all. You completely whiffed on mine. I'm agreeing that he hasn't been living up to his ranking. His ranking has been based on the large amount of targets he's receiving. Personally, I'm not betting against a guy averaging 10 targets (both with and without Hernandez in the lineup) on that offense. It appears there needs to be a little chemistry worked out here, but if he gets 140-160 targets this year, I feel confident he'll do much better than 4 TDs. He's on pace for 100/1148/4. That TD number just doesn't seem right. It'll average out and when it does, he'll be top 10. The "until he performs as a top 10 WR he isn't one" is just silly. You want Dodds to predict the chemistry will continue to flounder? You want people to risk missing his 140 yds 2 TD game just because Brady/Lloyd haven't connected on any long receptions so far? This guy is a ticking time bomb. Lloyd is on pace for 160 targets. Randy Moss saw 159 in his record breaking year. I'm not trying to say he is Randy Moss, but 10 targets a game is enough on this offense for the deep threat to be easily top 10. Bottom line, he belongs ranked in the top 10 until he stops receiving those targets. Have I made myself clear?'Rovers said:I think you missed the point. I'm not saying bench Lloyd. I'm saying he hasn't lived up to his FBG ranking, not even close. IIRC, one week he was a top five. Simply put, he has greatly underperformed his weekly ranking. Simple enough, or not?'FF Ninja said:This is not quite the same as flipping a coin 10 times and getting tails 8 times and then telling people there is an 80% chance of getting tails, but it is still a point with a very poor foundation.First of all, Lloyd led the team in targets while Hernandez was in the lineup, so no, your assumption that his targets and everything will go down is not sound.
But the main problem is that it has only been 4 games and despite both being the deep threat and the top target on the team, Lloyd only has 1 TD. We cannot assume this trend will continue and will keep his points per target down.
Lloyd and Brady have narrowly missed on several bombs. Their chemistry will only grow as the year progresses. If Lloyd is ranked 18th while being slightly out of sync with Brady, then it should not be a stretch to think he might be a top 10 WR in a game that should be a shootout.
If you want to count long completion attempts that failed, go right ahead. That has happened often to a jarge number of QB/WR combos this year. That list would take a page to produce. Incompletions don't count in FF.
He still starts in my start 4 WR lineup, but he isn't WR1 or WR2. He's borderline WR3. Until he performs as a top 10 WR... he isn't one, but FBG keeps ranking him that way. Have I made myself clear?
Oh, and BTW, someone is goung to lose targets on that NE offense when Hernandez returns. Simple math. You don't think it will be Lloyd, fine, as good a guess as any.
Even a WR3 like Lloyd can go off in any given week. If that happens, you will surely scream from the mountaintop about how right you were. That is inevitable. What is NOT inevitable is that Lloyd really does play like a WR1 and finishes the season in the top 12. He hasn't so far, but you say he is one anyway. Gotchya.
Here's how I look at it.
Which do you think is more of a fluke? His high number of targets per game, or his low number of fantasy points per target?
I don't think that's a particularly difficult question. (It's the latter.)
Which do you think is more of a fluke? His high number of targets per game, or his low number of fantasy points per target?
I don't think that's a particularly difficult question. (It's the latter.)
Rovers
Footballguy
One game is a fluke. Two games is a circumstance. Three games is trend. Four games is one quarter of the season.
Every year there are flukes that last a quarter of the season.ETA: After four games last season, Roddy White was a fantasy WR3.
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SacramentoBob
Footballguy
Some that last the entire season or an entire career.
Rovers
Footballguy
Sooner or later, Lloyd will have a top 10 WR game, there is no doubt. If that happens THIS week, it's a fluke. If it happens next week as well, it's a circumstance. If it happens... oh well, I think you get my drift. It is what it is, until it isn't anymore. Right now, he's a WR3 ranked evey week as a WR1. That's the cold hard truth.
But not to worry, sooner or later he'll have a top 10 week. And it won't be a fluke.
But not to worry, sooner or later he'll have a top 10 week. And it won't be a fluke.
Rovers
Footballguy
OK, I give up. He so far has NOT been a top ten, but people seem to think his WR3 numbers make him worthy of a top ten ranking.
I have to stay out of this thread, or I'll end up benching him for Kerley just so I can root against him.WR3? Not in ppr. He is a wr1!Sooner or later, Lloyd will have a top 10 WR game, there is no doubt. If that happens THIS week, it's a fluke. If it happens next week as well, it's a circumstance. If it happens... oh well, I think you get my drift. It is what it is, until it isn't anymore. Right now, he's a WR3 ranked evey week as a WR1. That's the cold hard truth.But not to worry, sooner or later he'll have a top 10 week. And it won't be a fluke.
Rovers
Footballguy
In my 0.5PPR league he's WR25. (Prior to week 5 games)That makes him a WR3.WR3? Not in ppr. He is a wr1!Sooner or later, Lloyd will have a top 10 WR game, there is no doubt. If that happens THIS week, it's a fluke. If it happens next week as well, it's a circumstance. If it happens... oh well, I think you get my drift. It is what it is, until it isn't anymore. Right now, he's a WR3 ranked evey week as a WR1. That's the cold hard truth.But not to worry, sooner or later he'll have a top 10 week. And it won't be a fluke.
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
He's a massive tease this year. If you watch the games, he's getting within inches of the endzone, just missing on passes, etc.. Looks like he's about to explode into WR1 territory.
But then every week, it's the same fairly so-so production. He's been a fine WR3, but it keeps looking like it could be more.
But then every week, it's the same fairly so-so production. He's been a fine WR3, but it keeps looking like it could be more.
Rovers
Footballguy
Darn, another fluke. Or is it a flounder? 3 receptions for 34 yards. Even I didn't expect a stinker like that. That's a fluke that someone forgot was still in the cooler a week ago.
LOL at Bloom trying o compare Lloyd to Roddy White. Is it really that hard to admit Lloyd has been ranked too high?
It's one thing to rank a Julio Jones in the top ten to fifteen every week. He's proven he can go off. He has HIS fluke weeks. The comparison to White is borderline silly. White has a track record as a WR1 for how many years in a row...with the same team AND his QB. Lloyd does not. He's developing a track record... as a WR3. Is it possible he can turn it around in the next 11 games? of course. Having said that, he isn't eevn the WR1 on his own team right now.
I'll be interested to watch and see where Lloyd gets ranked next week. Sooner or later, reality has to set in, and Lloyd is no WR1. Expect WR3 performances until he can prove otherwise.
Wish I had started Kerely. I can't believe I just typed that.
LOL at Bloom trying o compare Lloyd to Roddy White. Is it really that hard to admit Lloyd has been ranked too high?
It's one thing to rank a Julio Jones in the top ten to fifteen every week. He's proven he can go off. He has HIS fluke weeks. The comparison to White is borderline silly. White has a track record as a WR1 for how many years in a row...with the same team AND his QB. Lloyd does not. He's developing a track record... as a WR3. Is it possible he can turn it around in the next 11 games? of course. Having said that, he isn't eevn the WR1 on his own team right now.
I'll be interested to watch and see where Lloyd gets ranked next week. Sooner or later, reality has to set in, and Lloyd is no WR1. Expect WR3 performances until he can prove otherwise.
Wish I had started Kerely. I can't believe I just typed that.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
I don't understand what's so hard to comprehend about Lloyd. Too many damn mouths to feed in NE and they have become a much more balanced offense. Have said it all along since preseason, Lloyd was never going to put up WR1 numbers in NE. Never understood the fuss.
