Why is LJ a concensus top 5 pick? (1 Viewer)

[bigmiiiiike]

The guy will likely have a QB with ZERO experience at the helm. Over the past two seasons, he's lost two all-pro linemen. He's coming off a season where he set the carries record. I know that he's an absolute beast, probably a top 3 RB based just on talent. However, I hear so many of you talk about opportunity, for guys like Cedric Benson, Maroney, and Addai, and LJ's situation/opportunity is going to be terrible this year. I dont think the Chiefs will win more than 7 games this year, and they're not exactly in the easiest division for running the football.

I'm not saying that I think he'll be a total bust, or get injured, but doesnt it seem pretty realistic that he'll get about 350 carries for 1200-1400 yards, and 10 TDs? I just can't see how he'll rack up another 1500+ yard, 15+ TD season when teams are going to have 8 and 9 guys in the box against him. And it's not like the Chiefs have big time downfield threats at WR to make defenses respect the homerun.

Thoughts?

 

[The Moz]

Um becasue over the past 2 season he has had over 2000 total yards and averaged over 20 TD's

This season hauard is actually maybe better than Green was and Bowe should boost the wrs. Shields was really old but is a big loss as is Black. There line still doesn't totally suck. There D might be a little better.

1600 yards ru 300 rec. and 15 - 18 TD's I think is pretty reasonable.

 

[The Jacket]

Blah blah blah.

"Likely" inexperienced QB... speculation.

He dealt with last year sans Roaf just fine, no? And Will Shields was not even CLOSE to an All-Pro.

Situation/opportunity? The dude will get the rock. Stop reaching.

Easiest division for running the football? Please. LJ's made personal biatches out of San Diego and Denver, and you think the Raiders are slowing him down any time soon? Haha.

8/9 in the box? Stick in some tape of the 2006 Chiefs.

Lack of big-time receivers? Repeat my last step. Hint: nothing but upgraded since LJ's last 1700+ yard, 17 TD season.

 

[The Jacket]

Shields was really old but is a big loss as is Black.

Black may have been the worst LT in football last year.Please... please... jus... ahh, I give up.

 

[VICK-tory]

He could feasilbly (sp?) fall to no. 7 or 8 if the Chiefs don't open up the pass. He looked slow last year anyway.

 

[David Yudkin]

Who did the Chiefs really have last year at OL, QB, and WR? Did LJ not see 8-9 guys in the box then too?

I don't expect he'll do as well because I don't see how he could see 400 carries again this year. I also don't see his numbers going up on a per carry basis. However, I think he may see a few more targets in the passing game and that could keep his total yardage very high.

Maybe 1400 rushing yards on 340 carries, 50 receptions for 500 yards, and say 14 TD. Last year that would have ranked as the #3 RB.

 

[duaneok66]

he could fall like a rock if he holds out . . .

 

[Sinrman]

Well, LJ is a tough call for me. His past workload is a slight concern. The loss on his O-line is a bit of a concern.

The new QB is a little concerning. The threat of a holdout is a big concern right now (though it is only late-June,

and there's still plenty o' time for that to get taken care of). The lack of other weapons is a big concern for me,

too. TG isn't the TE he once was, and with the losses at O-line, I think they will continue to have to have him

help block more.

I'm not saying I wouldn't draft him still as one of the top RBs this year. But right now, I must admit I am

concerned...

 

[The Jacket]

He could feasilbly (sp?) fall to no. 7 or 8 if the Chiefs don't open up the pass. He looked slow last year anyway.

Yeah... seven backs higher than LJ.Uh, who?They didn't pass for chit last year, and at many points had an invalid who smashed his coconut in week one trying to play QB. Slow? Don't know when you saw that. Was it when he ran 70 yards down the sideline against the Cardinals to win the game for KC (in spite of getting "tackled" dirty by Antrel Rolle)? Was it when he gashed the Ravens for big runs escaping many quick, elite defenders? How about when he ran all over San Diego's "physical" defense?Hmm.Book this: 1400 yards MINIMUM; 300 - 600 yards in the passing game, 15 total TDs MINIMUM. Not even close to the most long-standing member on this site but I've been here a little while now and I'm an honest man. Any stake, any payment method... I'll bet on LJ hitting those numbers barring holdout or major FLUKE injury.

 

[duaneok66]

He could feasilbly (sp?) fall to no. 7 or 8 if the Chiefs don't open up the pass. He looked slow last year anyway.

Yeah... seven backs higher than LJ.

Uh, who?

They didn't pass for chit last year, and at many points had an invalid who smashed his coconut in week one trying to play QB.

Slow? Don't know when you saw that. Was it when he ran 70 yards down the sideline against the Cardinals to win the game for KC (in spite of getting "tackled" dirty by Antrel Rolle)? Was it when he gashed the Ravens for big runs escaping many quick, elite defenders? How about when he ran all over San Diego's "physical" defense?

Hmm.

Book this: 1400 yards MINIMUM; 300 - 600 yards in the passing game, 15 total TDs MINIMUM.

Not even close to the most long-standing member on this site but I've been here a little while now and I'm an honest man. Any stake, any payment method... I'll bet on LJ hitting those numbers barring holdout or major FLUKE injury.

two HUGE ifs . . .

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The guy will likely have a QB with ZERO experience at the helm.

Kind of like LaDainian Tomlinson last year.I like L.Johnson because he's really good, and he's going to get a lot of touches. That's a recipe for fantasy success.There are some negatives, including the offensive line and maybe the offense as a whole. But I still think the positives far outweigh the negatives.

 

[Bada Bing]

Blah blah blah.

"Likely" inexperienced QB... speculation.

He dealt with last year sans Roaf just fine, no? And Will Shields was not even CLOSE to an All-Pro.

Situation/opportunity? The dude will get the rock. Stop reaching.

Easiest division for running the football? Please. LJ's made personal biatches out of San Diego and Denver, and you think the Raiders are slowing him down any time soon? Haha.

8/9 in the box? Stick in some tape of the 2006 Chiefs.

Lack of big-time receivers? Repeat my last step. Hint: nothing but upgraded since LJ's last 1700+ yard, 17 TD season.

LJ dropped from 5.2ypc in 2005 to 4.3ypc in 2006. The loss of Roaf did have an effect.

 

[fatness]

I like L.Johnson because he's really good, and he's going to get a lot of touches. That's a recipe for fantasy success.

It really is that simple.

 

[azngangster]

Everyone keeps expecting a down year for LJ, but did you all watch any Chiefs games last year? That offensive line was horrible, and the passing game was suspect at best, there were 8 men in the box all the time and LJ still racked up over 2000 total yards and double digit tds. The guy is a monster. He is one of the top 5 backs in the league. We all know he probably won't get as many carries as last season, but that doesn't mean he is not going to get a lot of carries. And people bring up the discussion of the good defenses he will face. Look what he did to some of the best defenses in the league last year.

2 den | 27 126 | 41 | 0 |

7 sdg | 28 132 | 29 | 2

11 oak | 31 154 | 0 | 2

12 den | 34 157 | 6 | 1

14 bal | 23 120 | 4 | 0

16 oak | 31 135 | 0 | 1

17 jax | 33 138 | 22 | 3

He obliterated his own division. Dwayne Bowe adds another threat to wr, Huard or Croyle can't be much worse than what Huard and Trent Green were last year. The guy is a stud, and he doesn't have that much mileage on a guy his age since he has really only started one full season. The Chiefs have made offensive line changes for the better in the offseason, and have you all seen LJ run? He runs with such aggression and fire and he can lay serious damage on defenders, while also being able to dodge them. He can also catch the football. I expect a minimum of 1500 rushing yds and 12 rushing tds, and that is not even including his receiving totals.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

 

[az_prof]

Blah blah blah."Likely" inexperienced QB... speculation.He dealt with last year sans Roaf just fine, no? And Will Shields was not even CLOSE to an All-Pro.Situation/opportunity? The dude will get the rock. Stop reaching.Easiest division for running the football? Please. LJ's made personal biatches out of San Diego and Denver, and you think the Raiders are slowing him down any time soon? Haha.8/9 in the box? Stick in some tape of the 2006 Chiefs.Lack of big-time receivers? Repeat my last step. Hint: nothing but upgraded since LJ's last 1700+ yard, 17 TD season.

Actually he lost a full yard per carry last year without Roaf. If he loses half a yard per carry with the loss of Shields he falls down into the 3.8 area. He won't get 400 carries again this season, so a low YPC will be harder to cover up the way it was last year. I don't see LJ as a top 3 pick myself. I see him falling hard

 

[Jercules]

Think about it another way; somebody HAS to fall. Of the "consensus" top 5 guys, statistically, someone has to disappoint (it's a virtual guarantee). So is it gonna be LT, possibly the greatest to ever play the game? Jackson or Gore, two studs coming into their own on offensively talented teams in a defensively deficient division? Alexander, who's healthy again and playing with the same offense that got him the TD record, minus one guard? Or LJ, the guy who's watched his entire offense go up in smoke, has been publicly critical of the organization, and may even hold out for some time now because his contract is so ridiculously unfair?

Besides those points mentioned, I think the transition to Herm Edwards' style of offense is gonna kill LJ more than anything. There's one more year of distance between the Chief glory days under Saunders and Vermeil, when KC would rack up rushing TDs like it was nothing. They're going to turn into more of a ball-control, run down the clock kind of offense. He'll still get his touches, he'll probably still manage decent yardage, but his ypc will drop again and his TDs ought to nosedive.

Of all the top top RBs right now, this is the guy I'd want the least.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Lucky for most FF'ers, his holdout will become more clear well before FF drafts. Will he "pull a Jamal Lewis" in 2007 and play it safe, waiting for a huge contact in 2008? I don't think LJ knows any other way to play than with fiery aggression and a chip on his shoulder. I expect another 400-touch season, nearing 2000 total yards and double digit TD's.

 

[bonesman]

Slow? Don't know when you saw that. Was it when he ran 70 yards down the sideline against the Cardinals to win the game for KC (in spite of getting "tackled" dirty by Antrel Rolle)?

what was his YPC in that game against the big bad Cardinals' defense? mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("

about 2.25ish

16 carries for 36 yards

*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();

 

[Big Score]

Last year LJ's ypc indeed suffered a decline, which was covered up by the insane amount of touches he received. This year Hermy says they plan on scaling back LJ's touches. IF I believed that would actually happen, then there would be a legitimate argument for LJ falling out of the top 5. Even then I'd say he's still be somewhere in the top 10.

But LJ IS his teams offensive centerpiece. I think what Hermy says he wants to do (limit LJ's touches) & what Hermy actually ends up doing, are going to be two entirely different things.

Even if the worst case scenario does happen (barring injury of course - because THAT's the true worse case scenario) & Hermy actually caps LJ's touches, he's still going to be one of Fantasy Footballs top 10 RB's at the end of the year.

That makes LJ a pretty safe 4 or 5 pick in my book.

Now would I pick LJ one, two or three? That's an entirely different question.

 

[nygiants56]

The guy will likely have a QB with ZERO experience at the helm. Over the past two seasons, he's lost two all-pro linemen. He's coming off a season where he set the carries record. I know that he's an absolute beast, probably a top 3 RB based just on talent. However, I hear so many of you talk about opportunity, for guys like Cedric Benson, Maroney, and Addai, and LJ's situation/opportunity is going to be terrible this year. I dont think the Chiefs will win more than 7 games this year, and they're not exactly in the easiest division for running the football. I'm not saying that I think he'll be a total bust, or get injured, but doesnt it seem pretty realistic that he'll get about 350 carries for 1200-1400 yards, and 10 TDs? I just can't see how he'll rack up another 1500+ yard, 15+ TD season when teams are going to have 8 and 9 guys in the box against him. And it's not like the Chiefs have big time downfield threats at WR to make defenses respect the homerun. Thoughts?

 

[lions327]

The guy will likely have a QB with ZERO experience at the helm. Over the past two seasons, he's lost two all-pro linemen. He's coming off a season where he set the carries record. I know that he's an absolute beast, probably a top 3 RB based just on talent. However, I hear so many of you talk about opportunity, for guys like Cedric Benson, Maroney, and Addai, and LJ's situation/opportunity is going to be terrible this year. I dont think the Chiefs will win more than 7 games this year, and they're not exactly in the easiest division for running the football. I'm not saying that I think he'll be a total bust, or get injured, but doesnt it seem pretty realistic that he'll get about 350 carries for 1200-1400 yards, and 10 TDs? I just can't see how he'll rack up another 1500+ yard, 15+ TD season when teams are going to have 8 and 9 guys in the box against him. And it's not like the Chiefs have big time downfield threats at WR to make defenses respect the homerun. Thoughts?

He has seen 8 in the box since he has been a starter.

 

[Banger]

Who did the Chiefs really have last year at OL, QB, and WR? Did LJ not see 8-9 guys in the box then too?I don't expect he'll do as well because I don't see how he could see 400 carries again this year. I also don't see his numbers going up on a per carry basis. However, I think he may see a few more targets in the passing game and that could keep his total yardage very high.Maybe 1400 rushing yards on 340 carries, 50 receptions for 500 yards, and say 14 TD. Last year that would have ranked as the #3 RB.

This is exactly how I view the situation. He's one of the few 3 down horses in the league and is the undeniable focal point of the entire offense. The team has no choice but to rely on him. The years of flirting with 2000 rushing yards and 20 tds have left with the retirement of his O-line but he's still a very good, young RB and will get a ton of touch's. The only way he doesn't finish top 5 IMO is if he gets injured.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

He could feasilbly (sp?) fall to no. 7 or 8 if the Chiefs don't open up the pass. He looked slow last year anyway.

If RB7/8 is his downside then he is a very safe pick at #3.

 

[Banger]

The guy will likely have a QB with ZERO experience at the helm. Over the past two seasons, he's lost two all-pro linemen. He's coming off a season where he set the carries record. I know that he's an absolute beast, probably a top 3 RB based just on talent. However, I hear so many of you talk about opportunity, for guys like Cedric Benson, Maroney, and Addai, and LJ's situation/opportunity is going to be terrible this year. I dont think the Chiefs will win more than 7 games this year, and they're not exactly in the easiest division for running the football. I'm not saying that I think he'll be a total bust, or get injured, but doesnt it seem pretty realistic that he'll get about 350 carries for 1200-1400 yards, and 10 TDs? I just can't see how he'll rack up another 1500+ yard, 15+ TD season when teams are going to have 8 and 9 guys in the box against him. And it's not like the Chiefs have big time downfield threats at WR to make defenses respect the homerun. Thoughts?

Basically on the lowball projection you threw out of 1400 and 10tds plus 400 receiving and 1 td (because he will certainly get receiving yards, probably more than last year) puts him at 6th and 10 fantasy points out of 5th last year. I'm not sure why it's a stretch to think he'll be top 5.

 

[lebowski]

I like L.Johnson because he's really good, and he's going to get a lot of touches. That's a recipe for fantasy success.

It really is that simple.

Yep!

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I didnt say it was a stretch for him to be top 5, and my lowball projections werent 1400 and 10. My average projection was 1200-1400 yards and 10 TDs, with I guess 300-400 yards receiving and a TD. The lowball projections would be 1200 and 8 with 300 and 0, and highball would be 1500 and 14, with 400 and 2.

I'm not saying he'll fall off the face of the earth, I do think there are probably 5 guys I would draft ahead of him though, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him drop out of the top 10.

One interesting psychological note however, is one's desire to look for the next greatesst thing. LJ is proven, so it's not as exciting to project another spectacular season from him if a little doubt is there. It's much more fun to project guys like Maroney and Addai to explode and be the next Stephen Jackson. I guess the moral of the story is to take everything with a grain of salt, and not lose sight of the big picture.

 

[Dhizz]

Shields was really old but is a big loss as is Black.

Black may have been the worst LT in football last year.Please... please... jus... ahh, I give up.

The Moz is borderline ######ed.The GOOD news is, Black/Turley are GONE. They were probably the worst set of tackles in the league. So the tackle spot, should be a big upgrade for LJ this year, and the line should be better. The position was a disaster. LJ can run against anything. They have a good system. He routinely stomps Denver/SD, even with horrid QB play. And like I said, the line should be better.

 

[Dhizz]

Slow? Don't know when you saw that. Was it when he ran 70 yards down the sideline against the Cardinals to win the game for KC (in spite of getting "tackled" dirty by Antrel Rolle)?

what was his YPC in that game against the big bad Cardinals' defense? mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("

about 2.25ish

16 carries for 36 yards

*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();

And 6 catches for 105 and a TD? 141 total yards and a TD. Yes it was an off day. Oh and they won.

Obviously this guy sucks. Thanks for bringing the hard hitting news flashes.

 

[AB in DC]

I'm real down on LJ this year, as I've said on other threads, but I don't know that he'd fall out of my top 5. Maybe in PPR I could see ranking him at #6. There aren't a whole lot of good RBs I'd feel confident at jumping ahead of him even with a 20-30% decline in production.

 

[Dhizz]

Everyone keeps expecting a down year for LJ, but did you all watch any Chiefs games last year? That offensive line was horrible, and the passing game was suspect at best, there were 8 men in the box all the time and LJ still racked up over 2000 total yards and double digit tds. The guy is a monster. He is one of the top 5 backs in the league. We all know he probably won't get as many carries as last season, but that doesn't mean he is not going to get a lot of carries. And people bring up the discussion of the good defenses he will face. Look what he did to some of the best defenses in the league last year. 2 den | 27 126 | 41 | 0 |7 sdg | 28 132 | 29 | 2 11 oak | 31 154 | 0 | 2 12 den | 34 157 | 6 | 114 bal | 23 120 | 4 | 0 16 oak | 31 135 | 0 | 1 17 jax | 33 138 | 22 | 3 He obliterated his own division. Dwayne Bowe adds another threat to wr, Huard or Croyle can't be much worse than what Huard and Trent Green were last year. The guy is a stud, and he doesn't have that much mileage on a guy his age since he has really only started one full season. The Chiefs have made offensive line changes for the better in the offseason, and have you all seen LJ run? He runs with such aggression and fire and he can lay serious damage on defenders, while also being able to dodge them. He can also catch the football. I expect a minimum of 1500 rushing yds and 12 rushing tds, and that is not even including his receiving totals.

The hating on LJ in the FF community is from 2005. LJ was taken in the 5th round in a lot of drafts, and people freaked out, laughed at a cuff being taken in the 5th, Holmes owners cried foul. It was one big FF controversy. Then when LJ ran for 110 yards 2 tds on 9 carries in the first game, the firestorm started. Of course Holmes got hurt, LJ owners (who got a top 3 RB in the 5th rnd) rode him to the championship. Since then, everyone loves to point out how he's overrated, because of all the man love for LJ. And at the same time, LT was crashing and burning in the final 5 games of 2005.LT 376 yards and 1 td in the final 5 games.So as LT tanked, LJ owners rode him to the $$$, and LJ will never outlive the backlash from 2005, regardless of what he does. Between the "sharks" who said a cuff in the 5th was a bad pick, to the Holmes owners, the wounds are still very fresh. Then add in all the people LJ crushed in the 2005 FF playoffs, there’s a boat load of hate out there.

 

[burd]

2007 can go either way for LJ. It's possible that he will continue to be a beast on the field considering that he still plays behind one of the better OL in the league. But the case can also be made that he will struggle because defenses will key on him because they won't respect the pass. Extra defenders in the box will definitely make things tougher for him.

He's still definitely top 5 for the simple reason that he doesn't split carries ... not a lot of RB's carrry as large a load as LJ. I'd pick him as high as #3.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Shields was really old but is a big loss as is Black.

Black may have been the worst LT in football last year.Please... please... jus... ahh, I give up.

The Moz is borderline ######ed.The GOOD news is, Black/Turley are GONE. They were probably the worst set of tackles in the league. So the tackle spot, should be a big upgrade for LJ this year, and the line should be better. The position was a disaster. LJ can run against anything. They have a good system. He routinely stomps Denver/SD, even with horrid QB play. And like I said, the line should be better.

No, they weren't the worst set the OTs in the league. Worse than the Cardinals? Worse than the Dolphins? The Browns' and Raiders' OTs impressed no one either. I agree with you that LJ can overcome many things including his OL situation this year, the OT thing is exaggeration IMO.

 

[Banger]

The hating on LJ in the FF community is from 2005. LJ was taken in the 5th round in a lot of drafts, and people freaked out, laughed at a cuff being taken in the 5th, Holmes owners cried foul. It was one big FF controversy. Then when LJ ran for 110 yards 2 tds on 9 carries in the first game, the firestorm started. Of course Holmes got hurt, LJ owners (who got a top 3 RB in the 5th rnd) rode him to the championship. Since then, everyone loves to point out how he's overrated, because of all the man love for LJ. And at the same time, LT was crashing and burning in the final 5 games of 2005.LT 376 yards and 1 td in the final 5 games.So as LT tanked, LJ owners rode him to the $$$, and LJ will never outlive the backlash from 2005, regardless of what he does. Between the "sharks" who said a cuff in the 5th was a bad pick, to the Holmes owners, the wounds are still very fresh. Then add in all the people LJ crushed in the 2005 FF playoffs, there’s a boat load of hate out there.

Do people really hold "fantasy grudges" on players from year to year? I may like/dislike a player for particular reasons but to hate on a player because you didn't draft him and he blew up a few years ago seems pretty irrational and recipe for fantasy disaster. In regard to LJ, last year I felt the projections were ridiculous on the high side (based on the detiorating coaching/line situation) and this year I feel that many are lowballing him. Personally, I could care less what LJ (or any other back) did 2 years ago because it's irrelevant due to the constantly changing nature of the sport.

 

[Jayrod]

Think about it another way; somebody HAS to fall. Of the "consensus" top 5 guys, statistically, someone has to disappoint (it's a virtual guarantee). So is it gonna be LT, possibly the greatest to ever play the game? Jackson or Gore, two studs coming into their own on offensively talented teams in a defensively deficient division? Alexander, who's healthy again and playing with the same offense that got him the TD record, minus one guard? Or LJ, the guy who's watched his entire offense go up in smoke, has been publicly critical of the organization, and may even hold out for some time now because his contract is so ridiculously unfair?

Besides those points mentioned, I think the transition to Herm Edwards' style of offense is gonna kill LJ more than anything. There's one more year of distance between the Chief glory days under Saunders and Vermeil, when KC would rack up rushing TDs like it was nothing. They're going to turn into more of a ball-control, run down the clock kind of offense. He'll still get his touches, he'll probably still manage decent yardage, but his ypc will drop again and his TDs ought to nosedive.

Of all the top top RBs right now, this is the guy I'd want the least.

I think Gore just isn't on a good enough team yet to repeat last year's #'s and Alexander is on a steady decline.LJ stays top 5.

As far as Herm's offense, ever hear of a guy named Curtis Martin? Also, a good defense gets you better field position and the luxury of a close game which means more running plays and chances to score.

As a guy who watched a lot of Chiefs football last year, I can tell you that LJ earned many of his TD's last year. He literally would run over guys or just drag them across the goalline. He is, IMO one of the top 3 RB's in the league at BOTH getting into the endzone AND catching the ball out of the backfield. Those two factors are enough to keep him at top 5 status this year, even with KC's issues. If his YPC goes down even more, his fantasy PPG won't suffer too much because he will get yards and TD's regardless. The Arizona game last year is a prime example of that. The Chiefs really struggled to run the ball at times last year, but LJ still had a very good fantasy season. Expect more of the same this year.

 

[Dhizz]

Shields was really old but is a big loss as is Black.

Black may have been the worst LT in football last year.Please... please... jus... ahh, I give up.

The Moz is borderline ######ed.The GOOD news is, Black/Turley are GONE. They were probably the worst set of tackles in the league. So the tackle spot, should be a big upgrade for LJ this year, and the line should be better. The position was a disaster. LJ can run against anything. They have a good system. He routinely stomps Denver/SD, even with horrid QB play. And like I said, the line should be better.

No, they weren't the worst set the OTs in the league. Worse than the Cardinals? Worse than the Dolphins? The Browns' and Raiders' OTs impressed no one either. I agree with you that LJ can overcome many things including his OL situation this year, the OT thing is exaggeration IMO.

Yes one of the worst.Dolphins are not starting 2 new tackles.Cardinals might be. But yes it's close. Browns are close.Gallery is better then Black or Turley. Regardless, the Chiefs OTs were in the bottom 5. It's fairly rare you start 2 new tackles, by choice in the NFL. It was a serious problem last year, and I believe we'll see some improvement from that position.

 

[DenverBroncos]

Top 5??? he should be the consenus #3 pick in either re-draft or dynasty hands down! I'd love to be in a league where LJ isn't taken at 3.

 

[joffer]

Blah blah blah."Likely" inexperienced QB... speculation.He dealt with last year sans Roaf just fine, no? And Will Shields was not even CLOSE to an All-Pro.Situation/opportunity? The dude will get the rock. Stop reaching.Easiest division for running the football? Please. LJ's made personal biatches out of San Diego and Denver, and you think the Raiders are slowing him down any time soon? Haha.8/9 in the box? Stick in some tape of the 2006 Chiefs.Lack of big-time receivers? Repeat my last step. Hint: nothing but upgraded since LJ's last 1700+ yard, 17 TD season.

Actually he lost a full yard per carry last year without Roaf. If he loses half a yard per carry with the loss of Shields he falls down into the 3.8 area. He won't get 400 carries again this season, so a low YPC will be harder to cover up the way it was last year. I don't see LJ as a top 3 pick myself. I see him falling hard

and don't forget Derrick Blaylock was just as good as LJ in KC's system, right?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Think about it another way; somebody HAS to fall. Of the "consensus" top 5 guys, statistically, someone has to disappoint (it's a virtual guarantee). So is it gonna be LT, possibly the greatest to ever play the game? Jackson or Gore, two studs coming into their own on offensively talented teams in a defensively deficient division? Alexander, who's healthy again and playing with the same offense that got him the TD record, minus one guard? Or LJ, the guy who's watched his entire offense go up in smoke, has been publicly critical of the organization, and may even hold out for some time now because his contract is so ridiculously unfair?

The production of different RBs on different NFL teams is generally independent of one other.In other words, whether God came down and told you for sure that LT would tank this year, or whether He told you that LT, Jackson, Gore, and Alexander would all be awesome this year, either way it shouldn't change your projections for LJ one bit.

 

[David Yudkin]

and don't forget Derrick Blaylock was just as good as LJ in KC's system, right?

Actually, Blaylock WAS just as productive overall as Holmes or LJ when he was given the opportunity. In the 6 games where he was given the ball at least 10 times . . .17.5 carries3.5 receptions79.8 rushing + 32.8 receiving = 112.6 yards from scrimmage1.5 TD per gameOver a full season . . .280 carries1262 rushing yards525 receiving yards24 TD323 fantasy points

 

[kensat30]

LJ is one of the elite RBs in the NFL. Period. I think he is one of the few RBs out there, that is not only going to succeed with a bad team around him, but will flourish. 2006 was a prime example of that. You put Jamal Lewis in a KC uniform last year and he gets 350 carries for 1200 yards and 7 TDs.

When LJ was part of a "system", he combined for 2,000+ yards and scored 20+ TDs in 10 games worth of starts plus change. You are delusional if you think the Kansas City Chief's as a team were the main contributor to his numbers last year. The main thing to note from his time in the uber system, and combined with what we saw last year, is that you can hand this guy the ball 30+ times every week and he keeps on ticking. The guy was playing on a BAD team in 2006. Through his own grit, determination, and physical beastliness, the guy almost single-handedly put up stud numbers. And he didn't even look to show the signs of wearing down. Not one bit. Even when I see him take a hard hit, the guy shrugs it off like it is nothing. 6'1" 230 is more linebacker than RB.. And the guy catches the ball! Truly the complete package.

17 jax | 33 138 | 22 | 3

I'm not trying to argue that LJ will have a long and studly career, but this guy is just getting off the ground. Ride him hard the next season or two and then start worrying about when his candle is going to go out. Even with a decline in carries, efficiency, and TD production, we are still looking at a virtual lock for top3 numbers from LJ this season barring a major injury. And from that angle, personally I am much more worried for a guy like Frank Gore. LJ to me is the clear cut #2 RB in this redraft class. I hate to say it, but my one main concern for 2007 is that LJ will hold out, and that to me that is almost a non-existant possibility.

 

[Chop_Block]

Alexander, who's healthy again and playing with the same offense that got him the TD record, minus one guard? Of all the top top RBs right now, this is the guy I'd want the least.

Wait , Alexander is healthy? I thought his foot was still shaky....I'm not sayin' he won't do better this year - he will - but is he officially healthy?Aside from that - I don't think LJ will slip all that much this year - I don't think he will be the top dawg, even if (can we say when?) LT2 doesn't repeat the numbers he had last year. And I think S. Jackson will lock down the #2 spot. My biggest concern is the potential hold-out and even then, it's not liek it's a new offence. It is, however, a new QB if Croyle wins the job. I'll be slightly more concerned with Croyle at the helm than Huard, who played well enough last year.Honestly, I could see arguements for several players at #3 - LJ, Gore, Alexander (if healthy) - but I think LJ is the guy right now.

 

[burd]

My question is: Who's in a better situation going into 2007 ... LJ or Alexander?

Overlooking the possible foot injury, I tend to think Alexander is in a better situation because he is in a more balanced offense that can beat you on the ground and through the air. Both are the undisputed #1 RBs for their teams, but the thought of Croyle leading the team has to make LJ owners a little worried because defenses will focus their efforts on LJ and challenge Croyle to beat them.

My only concerns for Alexander (besides the foot injury) is his age and his lack of production as a receiver out of the backfield. He's not ancient yet, but history has shown that RBs tend to lose a step in their 30's. I havent' seen any indications that he's lost a step so I think he'll still be as effective for 2007. Honestly, if it weren't for the lack of receptions for Alexander, I'd seriously consider him w/ the #3 spot. But since he's not much of a receiver, I'm still going w/ LJ at #3.

 

[DenverBroncos]

This year and next year, Alexander could easily finish #3 but maybe not so in a PPR league. He should get 1500 yards and 15+ TD's. LJ is still the #3 guy though and you cannot go wrong with someone who will touch the ball over 400 times.

 

[AB in DC]

LJ is still the #3 guy though and you cannot go wrong with someone who will touch the ball over 400 times.

Oh, so you're a fortune teller?

 

[DenverBroncos]

LJ is still the #3 guy though and you cannot go wrong with someone who will touch the ball over 400 times.

Oh, so you're a fortune teller?

Yes, I am. LJ had 460 or so touches last year and I just don't see a decrease of 12.5% this year. Maybe at most a 10% decrease but that would still be over 400 touches.

 

[The Jacket]

Actually he lost a full yard per carry last year without Roaf. If he loses half a yard per carry with the loss of Shields he falls down into the 3.8 area. He won't get 400 carries again this season, so a low YPC will be harder to cover up the way it was last year. I don't see LJ as a top 3 pick myself. I see him falling hard

And Roaf is in an entirely different laegue to Shields.LJ's YPC may drop this season. No reason to think that such a thing is impossible. But it's not going to be "because the Chiefs lost Will Shields!111!!!".All due respect to the man, one of my favorite ever Chiefs -- but people need to realize that he just WASN'T ANY GOOD last year.As others have alluded to and I've repeated time and time again; the Chiefs are BETTER this season than they were last. At WR, QB and on the OL. Plus, their defense should improve if only marginally, too.

 

[ravnzfan]

and don't forget Derrick Blaylock was just as good as LJ in KC's system, right?

Actually, Blaylock WAS just as productive overall as Holmes or LJ when he was given the opportunity. In the 6 games where he was given the ball at least 10 times . . .17.5 carries

3.5 receptions

79.8 rushing + 32.8 receiving = 112.6 yards from scrimmage

1.5 TD per game

Over a full season . . .

280 carries

1262 rushing yards

525 receiving yards

24 TD

323 fantasy points

I hate when one says "4 games @ XXX = 4XXX over a full season"Jamal Lewis ran for 500 yds against the Brownies in 2 games in '03, and had a trmendous season...

he did NOT run for 4K yards, though

and on Larry Johnson---while he has had a high number of touches the last 2 years, he still has less than 900 carries over his carreer

I wouldn't be shocked to see him outperform Tomlinson...I didn't say I'd draft him ahead of LT, only that if KC gets anything out of their passing game and LT dips 10-15%, these 2 can finish alot closer than the 100 point spread from last season

 

[The Jacket]

LJ is one of the elite RBs in the NFL. Period. I think he is one of the few RBs out there, that is not only going to succeed with a bad team around him, but will flourish. 2006 was a prime example of that. You put Jamal Lewis in a KC uniform last year and he gets 350 carries for 1200 yards and 7 TDs. When LJ was part of a "system", he combined for 2,000+ yards and scored 20+ TDs in 10 games worth of starts plus change. You are delusional if you think the Kansas City Chief's as a team were the main contributor to his numbers last year. The main thing to note from his time in the uber system, and combined with what we saw last year, is that you can hand this guy the ball 30+ times every week and he keeps on ticking. The guy was playing on a BAD team in 2006. Through his own grit, determination, and physical beastliness, the guy almost single-handedly put up stud numbers. And he didn't even look to show the signs of wearing down. Not one bit. Even when I see him take a hard hit, the guy shrugs it off like it is nothing. 6'1" 230 is more linebacker than RB.. And the guy catches the ball! Truly the complete package.17 jax | 33 138 | 22 | 3 I'm not trying to argue that LJ will have a long and studly career, but this guy is just getting off the ground. Ride him hard the next season or two and then start worrying about when his candle is going to go out. Even with a decline in carries, efficiency, and TD production, we are still looking at a virtual lock for top3 numbers from LJ this season barring a major injury. And from that angle, personally I am much more worried for a guy like Frank Gore. LJ to me is the clear cut #2 RB in this redraft class. I hate to say it, but my one main concern for 2007 is that LJ will hold out, and that to me that is almost a non-existant possibility.

Ridiculously good and accurate post.Look, I'm not some dopey run-of-the-mill homer. I know the Chiefs aren't that good; I know they're not going anywhere next year; and I know its bad players like the back of my hand. But people just need to realize that LJ's situation is BETTER this year than it was last and that he is an insanely talented football player.I'm not saying he won't wear down eventually or that the holdout isn't a dangerous situation, but if this cat is on the football field in week one and again in week 17 without many interruptions in-between - expect similar numbers to last year.

 

[The Jacket]

what was his YPC in that game against the big bad Cardinals' defense?

Remind me: since when has yards per carry reflected speed?Or whatever it is that supposedly looked "slow" about LJ.