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This question has been asked every year for the last four years. Rudi never gets respect because he's not flashy or catch 20+ ball out of the backfield but when he's healthy he's "Mr. Consistancy" an ol school workhorse.
The difference is in years past Rudi wasn't getting any respect despite coming off Top 10 fantasy seasons. This year, he's coming off a horrible season in which he was outplayed by his backup and heads into a new season with the same backup in place (plus another talented, albeit chronically injured reserve competing for snaps as well) and the coaching staff, unlike past seasons, has openly talked about dividing the carries up between Rudi and whoever ends up as his backup.In the past, there were no serious threats to Rudi's carries and there was no reason to be seriously concerned about his production given how good he's been. This year, there are major threats to Rudi's carries and he is coming off a putrid season.I've been a fan of his for a long time. But I don't see him bouncing back to Top 10 status and I don't even think he'll be a very good RB3. And I'm not putting much stock in how he looks in the preseason either. He looked terrific in the preseason last year and that obviously didn't mean squat. I hope he bounces back because, like I said, I'm a fan. But if he does, he'll almost certainly do it on someone else's roster and not mine.This question has been asked every year for the last four years. Rudi never gets respect because he's not flashy or catch 20+ ball out of the backfield but when he's healthy he's "Mr. Consistancy" an ol school workhorse.
Like I posted above, though, he looked real good in the preseason last year and that didn't have any relevance to how his season transpired. It's just hard for me to make a good case for Rudi this year beyond the fact I like him and I want to see him do well. But that's not enough for me to gamble on him in a draft. His ADP right now is 56. The RBs going after him include:Fred TaylorJonathan StewartMatt ForteSelvin YoungKevin SmithRashard MendenhallFelix JonesIf I'm going to go the proven veteran route, I'll take Fred Taylor ahead of Rudi. Unlike Rudi, Taylor hasn't shown any signs of decline despite the presence of another standout RB in the Jags' backfield. If I'm going for the upside, I'd go after Stewart, Mendenhall or Jones (I'm so-so on Forte, not big on Smith and I think Young is the next Tatum Bell). If Rudi's on the board with that group of RBs I can't think if a compelling reason to draft him ahead of the guys I listed.
Rudi was battling a hamstring injury last year, that fact that he played with the injury speaks volumes.............IMHO, so I'll take him with no hesitation.Hmmm, someone posted here sometime ago a quote from the HC saying that Rudi "would not lose any carries." You're saying the carries will be divided? Where did you read this?The difference is in years past Rudi wasn't getting any respect despite coming off Top 10 fantasy seasons. This year, he's coming off a horrible season in which he was outplayed by his backup and heads into a new season with the same backup in place (plus another talented, albeit chronically injured reserve competing for snaps as well) and the coaching staff, unlike past seasons, has openly talked about dividing the carries up between Rudi and whoever ends up as his backup.In the past, there were no serious threats to Rudi's carries and there was no reason to be seriously concerned about his production given how good he's been. This year, there are major threats to Rudi's carries and he is coming off a putrid season.I've been a fan of his for a long time. But I don't see him bouncing back to Top 10 status and I don't even think he'll be a very good RB3. And I'm not putting much stock in how he looks in the preseason either. He looked terrific in the preseason last year and that obviously didn't mean squat. I hope he bounces back because, like I said, I'm a fan. But if he does, he'll almost certainly do it on someone else's roster and not mine.This question has been asked every year for the last four years. Rudi never gets respect because he's not flashy or catch 20+ ball out of the backfield but when he's healthy he's "Mr. Consistancy" an ol school workhorse.
I disagree. For me I take the upside of Rudi there. Rudi was coming off 3 consecutive years of 8th, 7th and 9th among RB's, while Taylors have been 18, 18 and 33. I have to see how the preseason unfolds but as it stands right now I think he's definitely worth a gamble.
To each his own but Rudi's upside is better than Fred Taylor's. You posted all rookies besides Selvin Young. I wouldn't take Selvin Young over Rudi Johnson, Selvin Young blows compared to Rudi. The rookies......ya one of those guys will probably break out, put Chris Johnson in that group too but not all of them will.Rudi was down to 214 lbs or whatever last year. In previous years, he was around 230 and he's back there now.Out of that group listed above I'd probably take Johnathan Stewart.
I recall reading that earlier in the offseason. I don't have a link. Sorry. If Lewis is saying something different now that's definitely interesting. I don't question his toughness. I do question whether he'll be able to bounce back. He's had a lot of mileage on those tires the past few seasons and I wonder if the injury last year was an indication he's starting to break down. Plus, I don't think he'll be on a very long leash. Watson showed last season he can do quite well as a starter and Perry is a very talented player. If he stays healthy - HUGE "if" I realize - he could become a major factor if Rudi struggles and/or gets hurt again.Rudi was battling a hamstring injury last year, that fact that he played with the injury speaks volumes.............IMHO, so I'll take him with no hesitation.Hmmm, someone posted here sometime ago a quote from the HC saying that Rudi "would not lose any carries." You're saying the carries will be divided? Where did you read this?The difference is in years past Rudi wasn't getting any respect despite coming off Top 10 fantasy seasons. This year, he's coming off a horrible season in which he was outplayed by his backup and heads into a new season with the same backup in place (plus another talented, albeit chronically injured reserve competing for snaps as well) and the coaching staff, unlike past seasons, has openly talked about dividing the carries up between Rudi and whoever ends up as his backup.In the past, there were no serious threats to Rudi's carries and there was no reason to be seriously concerned about his production given how good he's been. This year, there are major threats to Rudi's carries and he is coming off a putrid season.I've been a fan of his for a long time. But I don't see him bouncing back to Top 10 status and I don't even think he'll be a very good RB3. And I'm not putting much stock in how he looks in the preseason either. He looked terrific in the preseason last year and that obviously didn't mean squat. I hope he bounces back because, like I said, I'm a fan. But if he does, he'll almost certainly do it on someone else's roster and not mine.This question has been asked every year for the last four years. Rudi never gets respect because he's not flashy or catch 20+ ball out of the backfield but when he's healthy he's "Mr. Consistancy" an ol school workhorse.
Please define "mileage" I see this posted a lot but not sure exact when someone gains "mileage". I'm not trying to be funny, I'm actually serious.He has only run for 5742 yds. Are you saying this is too much for a rb?
Rudi's upside may be better than Taylor's but I think he has considerably more downside. I think Taylor is a much safer pick and if I'm going with a veteran as my RB3 I'll probably look to play it safe. I agree that I'd rather have Rudi than Young. I'm not big on Young either. Like I said, I think he's another Tatum Bell - a flash in the pan who won't stay healthy for very long. With regard to the rookies, if I'm considering them that means I'm looking for an upside play. I think Stewart, Jones and Mendenhall all have more upside than Rudi. Forte could but I think the Bears' offense is so putrid I'm not all that high on his potential even if he dominates the carries. I just can't see any way I'd take Rudi ahead of those guys. And if he looks good in the preseason I'll just remind myself of how good he looked last year too. So that won't be enough to sway me.
I think he's just saying he's no spring chicken.
LOL, there's that "mileage" word again. He definately has some talented guys behind him. I'm not sure how he's coming along with that injury but hopefully he's healed, if not, he could see the pine more often then not. Rudi has done nothing to indicate he should lose his carries (MPO), but how many times do a starter lose carries due to injuries? Not many I'd guess. Rudi has been injury only once and he gets a bad label, I'm sure I could name eight current rbs that have been injured more and they don't get labeled........I wonder why that is? (thinking out loud).Well, time will tell but I'm still a believer.I recall reading that earlier in the offseason. I don't have a link. Sorry. If Lewis is saying something different now that's definitely interesting. I don't question his toughness. I do question whether he'll be able to bounce back. He's had a lot of mileage on those tires the past few seasons and I wonder if the injury last year was an indication he's starting to break down. Plus, I don't think he'll be on a very long leash. Watson showed last season he can do quite well as a starter and Perry is a very talented player. If he stays healthy - HUGE "if" I realize - he could become a major factor if Rudi struggles and/or gets hurt again.Rudi was battling a hamstring injury last year, that fact that he played with the injury speaks volumes.............IMHO, so I'll take him with no hesitation.Hmmm, someone posted here sometime ago a quote from the HC saying that Rudi "would not lose any carries." You're saying the carries will be divided? Where did you read this?The difference is in years past Rudi wasn't getting any respect despite coming off Top 10 fantasy seasons. This year, he's coming off a horrible season in which he was outplayed by his backup and heads into a new season with the same backup in place (plus another talented, albeit chronically injured reserve competing for snaps as well) and the coaching staff, unlike past seasons, has openly talked about dividing the carries up between Rudi and whoever ends up as his backup.In the past, there were no serious threats to Rudi's carries and there was no reason to be seriously concerned about his production given how good he's been. This year, there are major threats to Rudi's carries and he is coming off a putrid season.I've been a fan of his for a long time. But I don't see him bouncing back to Top 10 status and I don't even think he'll be a very good RB3. And I'm not putting much stock in how he looks in the preseason either. He looked terrific in the preseason last year and that obviously didn't mean squat. I hope he bounces back because, like I said, I'm a fan. But if he does, he'll almost certainly do it on someone else's roster and not mine.This question has been asked every year for the last four years. Rudi never gets respect because he's not flashy or catch 20+ ball out of the backfield but when he's healthy he's "Mr. Consistancy" an ol school workhorse.
Rudi can make your season though if he hits as a 2nd back. I tend to go with guys that have done it before. I loved Willis and Portis last year and they were getting ragged on bigtime, especially Portis. People were scared by Betts and he became a great value. I could definitely see a similar situation (to a lesser extent) with Rudi.
AbsolutelySince 2002 he averaged: 3.9, 4.5, 4.0, 4.3, 3.8, and 2.9 (injured) respectively..........one bad year (injured).
I hope he's wrong.
I don't disagree. I think alot of people don't and his ADP is going to be all mixed up come draft time.What round do you think he'll go if we're drafting the last week in August?
Hello FL,1. Since when do we hold an injury against a player?
Before last year, he was averaging about 350 carries per season for 3 years. That's a lot of carries in 3 years, over 1000. That's what I meant when I said mileage.
1. When we think he's a 29-year-old RB with a history of heavy inside running . . . and may in fact be washed up.2. They've never had a situation like this one where the backup outplayed the starter the previous season and the former first-rounder is being counted on as a factor in the passing game.3. I don't disagree with this at all.4. Not impossible at all. I'm not drafting him to be a starter simply b/c I don't trust him. Does he offer the "swing for the fences" upside that I like to have in a RB3? You've obviously answered "yes" to this. I'd swing more towards "no."5. His consistency was already tailing off in '06. And there's plenty of reason to believe he's no longer the same running back . . . 2.8 YPC
1. LOL, FL, he's 29. We're holding that against him? He's only had 5 seasons under his belt as a starter.2. Again, he was injured. Let's not hold that against him.3. Cool.4. Agree to disagree5. In '06 he had 1433 yds from scrimmage.1. When we think he's a 29-year-old RB with a history of heavy inside running . . . and may in fact be washed up.2. They've never had a situation like this one where the backup outplayed the starter the previous season and the former first-rounder is being counted on as a factor in the passing game.3. I don't disagree with this at all.4. Not impossible at all. I'm not drafting him to be a starter simply b/c I don't trust him. Does he offer the "swing for the fences" upside that I like to have in a RB3? You've obviously answered "yes" to this. I'd swing more towards "no."5. His consistency was already tailing off in '06. And there's plenty of reason to believe he's no longer the same running back . . . 2.8 YPC
Actually he had a 3.9 YPC and he was injured.
Yes. I certainly do, especially when he's never been an exceptionally talented back. He's been a hard runner, but he got a lot of his value from an offensive line that is now weaker and an offense that moved the ball extremely well. It's clear to me that he's past his prime. Five seasons of starting is enough for a RB with average talent and a heavy workload. I mean, take a look at better backs like Ahman Green and Eddie George and compare their first 5 starting seasons to the next 3 or 4. Frankly, I wouldn't put Rudi close to their talent level. Non-elite Running backs with 5 seasons of heavy workloads and approaching age 29 are basically a shell of their former selves.I can see why you like him as a good risk, but I don't see it that way.For a RB who doesn't catch passes, I tend to use the 75-yard rushing mark as a barometer for an acceptable game. In '05 Rudi had 2 games under 75 rushing yards. In '06 he had 7 games under 75 rushing yards. I started to notice that his consistency was waning . . . and really killing his owners in my leagues in '06 with his inconsistency and lack of receiving points. Anecdotal evidence there, sure, but it's enough to stay in my mind and caution me against him when combined with all of the other doubts.Oh, I meant the 2.9 (correction) YPC was last year's average . . . which, injury or no, is extremely unsettling.1. LOL, FL, he's 29. We're holding that against him? He's only had 5 seasons under his belt as a starter.2. Again, he was injured. Let's not hold that against him.3. Cool.4. Agree to disagree5. In '06 he had 1433 yds from scrimmage.1. When we think he's a 29-year-old RB with a history of heavy inside running . . . and may in fact be washed up.2. They've never had a situation like this one where the backup outplayed the starter the previous season and the former first-rounder is being counted on as a factor in the passing game.3. I don't disagree with this at all.4. Not impossible at all. I'm not drafting him to be a starter simply b/c I don't trust him. Does he offer the "swing for the fences" upside that I like to have in a RB3? You've obviously answered "yes" to this. I'd swing more towards "no."5. His consistency was already tailing off in '06. And there's plenty of reason to believe he's no longer the same running back . . . 2.8 YPC
Looks like we're just looking at it from two different angles, which is why we play this game call Fantasy.Yes. I certainly do, especially when he's never been an exceptionally talented back. He's been a hard runner, but he got a lot of his value from an offensive line that is now weaker and an offense that moved the ball extremely well. It's clear to me that he's past his prime. Five seasons of starting is enough for a RB with average talent and a heavy workload. I mean, take a look at better backs like Ahman Green and Eddie George and compare their first 5 starting seasons to the next 3 or 4. Frankly, I wouldn't put Rudi close to their talent level. Non-elite Running backs with 5 seasons of heavy workloads and approaching age 29 are basically a shell of their former selves.I can see why you like him as a good risk, but I don't see it that way.For a RB who doesn't catch passes, I tend to use the 75-yard rushing mark as a barometer for an acceptable game. In '05 Rudi had 2 games under 75 rushing yards. In '06 he had 7 games under 75 rushing yards. I started to notice that his consistency was waning . . . and really killing his owners in my leagues in '06 with his inconsistency and lack of receiving points. Anecdotal evidence there, sure, but it's enough to stay in my mind and caution me against him when combined with all of the other doubts.Oh, I meant the 2.9 (correction) YPC was last year's average . . . which, injury or no, is extremely unsettling.1. LOL, FL, he's 29. We're holding that against him? He's only had 5 seasons under his belt as a starter.2. Again, he was injured. Let's not hold that against him.3. Cool.4. Agree to disagree5. In '06 he had 1433 yds from scrimmage.1. When we think he's a 29-year-old RB with a history of heavy inside running . . . and may in fact be washed up.2. They've never had a situation like this one where the backup outplayed the starter the previous season and the former first-rounder is being counted on as a factor in the passing game.3. I don't disagree with this at all.4. Not impossible at all. I'm not drafting him to be a starter simply b/c I don't trust him. Does he offer the "swing for the fences" upside that I like to have in a RB3? You've obviously answered "yes" to this. I'd swing more towards "no."5. His consistency was already tailing off in '06. And there's plenty of reason to believe he's no longer the same running back . . . 2.8 YPCActually he had a 3.9 YPC and he was injured.
year first last age-3 yr fp-rush avg- fp's, year n+1 1998 Dorsey Levens 28 489 3.29 222 1996 Rodney Hampton 27 506 3.26 14 1989 Curt Warner 28 625 3.25 20 1984 Earl Campbell 29 516 3.21 79 1993 Neal Anderson 29 564 3.20 retired 1970 Leroy Kelly 28 669 3.18 194 1978 Chuck Foreman 28 760 3.16 49 1975 Ron Johnson 28 504 3.03 retired 1975 John Brockington 27 476 3.01 57 2001 Eddie George 28 743 2.98 226 1992 John Williams 28 471 2.97 106 2007 Rudi Johnson 28 668 2.92 ???? 1999 Adrian Murrell 29 517 2.87 14 1997 Larry Centers 29 459 2.73 781974 Larry Brown 27 608 2.64 88
Looks like we're just looking at it from two different angles, which is why we play this game call Fantasy.
Looks like 4 bad years, to me. 4.0 yards per carry is nothing to be proud of. For that matter, 4.3 yards per carry ain't exactly lighting the world on fire, either.
Ok ... so you project him out to realistically net RB14 stats and he is being drafted as RB27 ... isn't that the textbook definition of Value Pick?
because Rudi got outperformed by Kenny Watson. When RBs go, they rarely come back. There's always a few instances where RBs comeback to form, most those instances involve a dominant line I would like to add, but predominantly it's a downhill ride from here on out for most aging RBs
I would much rather have Earnest Graham than Rudi, and I think a lot of people would agree with me. Graham lit it up last year, and while he has some competition, I think he'll do it again this year.
He might not be sharing carries because he might not even be the starting RB in Cincy this season..I doubt he keeps a ( supposedly) healthy Chris Perry off the field, and we know that Kenny Watson has earned quite a bit of playing time with his solid performance last season..Hard to imagine Rudi getting back to 300+ carries with younger,faster , more versatile options at the RB position...
Rudi is the Tara Reid of the NFL. AllUsedUp
those "projections" were his upside IMO.
Absolutely!GB this thread. Keep the Rudi hype going and I hope my league owners are reading this
Thanks, thats not going to help him for sure.
Plus, Taylor is 32, his competition is much stiffer than Rudi's (i.e., MJD >> Perry/Watson), and JAX's starting center is out for at least the first 4-5 games.
Rut Roh...
Taylor still can play and he has been a top 20 RB playing with MJD the past two year, averaging about 1175 yards per season. Rudi looked done even before his injury and was outplayed by Watson. I don't see the upside there.That's the difference between the two.Just Win Baby said:
