So this guy was #3 RB in PPR last year, he got hurt in 2014 but was the #12 RB in PPR in 2013. His situation didn't change much from last year except for Whisenhunt coming back as their O-coordinator who was there in the same capacity in 2013. Melvin Gordon was historically bad as a rookie RB last year and is coming back from off season surgery. I hear pretty much everyone is saying Woodhead is one of the leading candidates to fall out of the top ten this year and his ADP seems pretty low at 58 overall. Why? What am I missing?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Why not Woodhead? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hadji
- Start date
I had Woodhead last year & it was really difficult to start him if you had other options. His scoring was very inconsistent & even worse, if you watched the games, was his playing time from game to game. Most of his value comes from when the Chargers were way behind & Woodhead would go in & get huge points late in the games. Even when Gordon was bad, the Chargers stuck with him & I expect more of the same this year. Oliver is also back this season. Finally, he benefited from not missing any games, on a per game average he was ranked around RB #14 in my league.
I had him at $2 in a $200 keeper league & threw him back into the auction this year.
I had him at $2 in a $200 keeper league & threw him back into the auction this year.
nightmare
Footballguy
Maybe the Chargers were settling for the game plan of throwing to the RB instead of down field
to the WR's? An offensive line that was not that good, an injured K Allen and A Gates, an aging 2nd
WR, and no real step it up guys behind the starters? They signed K Benjamin and Williams is going
to make them forget about S Johnson. Woodhead might sniff 30 (not a typo) catches but I wouldn't
plan on it.
to the WR's? An offensive line that was not that good, an injured K Allen and A Gates, an aging 2nd
WR, and no real step it up guys behind the starters? They signed K Benjamin and Williams is going
to make them forget about S Johnson. Woodhead might sniff 30 (not a typo) catches but I wouldn't
plan on it.
nightmare
Footballguy
You and everyone else. I know that number looks insane but if M Gordon does what I think he's
going to do, which is finish right around RB 8-14, Woodhead goes for 25 rec's. RB 8-14 is some
where around a 25-30 point spread in PPR. Last year was a low in scoring for RB's.
M Gordon could finish as RB 24 and Woodhead still won't see 80 rec's. I know that Woodhead
had 76 rec's before with SD but that's not what they want but what they can get.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I think woodhead is being discounted because SD brought in a fullback. the problem is their defense still blows, so woodhead remains the play, imho.
If Woodhead stays healthy, there is a zero percent chance that he's under 30 receptions. He's still their 3rd down back, their two minute back, and their down-by-20-gotta-air-it-out back. And guess what? The Chargers won't be leading a ton of games and in grind it out mode come the 4th quarter. While I agree with your thoughts in general that he's due for a regression, I couldn't disagree more with your receptions prediction for him. Will be fun to watch.
nightmare
Footballguy
Yeah, I could be wrong. Woodhead is sliding down draft boards and Gordon is going up.
D Dodd and M Trembley now have Gordon ahead in projections and both as RB2's
It's trending to "safe" mode as we have no clue if the Chargers are going to be any good.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
If you skim the chargers thread you'll see rampant pessimism regarding the state of the defense. the rivers-led improvisational passing attack is the golden handcuff which drives this offense until and unless the defense improves. Unless you want to argue that Gordon can beat Woodhead at his own game, I think Woodhead remains the play....regardless of how its being projected here.
We Tigers
Footballguy
I think he's a very solid, undervalued pick again, but I understand some skepticism. Hard to have full faith in a guy with a career high of 106 carries. 6 receiving TDs each of his big years in SD is a remarkable number, but an unusual one. If Gordon's decent this season, it'd be easy to imagine Woodhead sliding back to around 70-80 carries and only getting around 4-5 TDs instead of 8. Still a good plug-in in PPR, but maybe not a monster again.
Sums it up pretty well here. Expecting about 75% of last years numbers for woodhead if he and Gordon are healthy all year. Ok for rb2, better for rb3
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Woodhead was a monster the first half of the season and then the Chargers forced Gordon into the game subsequently they got behind and games because he sucks a bag of donkey ****'s and then they would put wood head in and he get me 20 points in the last quarter.
If the charges were smart and just kept Woodhead in the game all game they would have actually won a few more games last year.
Hes one of my sleepers for RB2/3
Last edited by a moderator:
nightmare
Footballguy
I think the O-line improves enough to let Rivers do his thing which now brings their WR2, WR3 into play
and Gates gets his-maybe not 16 games but Woodhead could be the play if Gates goes down.
Benjamin is WR2, Williams is WR3 and Gordon improves to what he was drafted for which leaves Woodhead
as sometimes 3rd down RB, maybe 2 minute RB, and no way in hell as the air it out guy.
I'll leave it at this. I'm in the minority(big time) and know it but I just believe the "group think" on this is off.
The Chargers non improvement could make me wrong
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I like him to be honest. Lock for top 20.
Tau837
Footballguy
You couldn't be more wrong on this. Woodhead is a lock for top 20 in PPR barring injury, with obvious upside to break into the top 10, since he just did it.
I agree some regression is expected, for two primary reasons:
- The Chargers hope to run more and pass less. The key to doing this is for the running game to be more effective. There are some reasons for optimism on that -- Whisenhunt, Gordon improvement, healthier and hopefully better OL, etc.
- The Chargers plan to play more sets with 2 TEs and FB. If so, that could reduce Woodhead's snaps, though the main reduction will be to WR snaps.
at 25 receptions for him.Short Corner
Footballguy
Yeah, it was a weird year. The RB #3 thing was due to injuries, but the inconsistency was tough. He had his best few games right after bad game(s), so unless you had nothing else, he wasn't RB #3 for owners. It's a case of why to be careful when looking only at end of year numbers. He's still a good PPR RB who is a steal if you get him at RB3 prices as he should get you RB2 performance even if Gordon plays better. He's got a nice PPR floor and if Gordon sucks again, he's got a nice upside.
The only thing I would be worried about (Gordon shouldn't pilfer receptions) is Hunter Henry. Last year for Gates and Green, they missed quite a few games and got hurt during games, so they only had 55 and 37 receptions. If Gates stays healthy and Henry comes on (I think I have heard good things so far), that would cut way more into Woodhead's stats IMHO.
Tau837
Footballguy
First off, the Chargers had 667 passing attempts last season. That number should come way down. I'm thinking 560.
How will the targets be split up? Assuming the top 2 targets at each position stay healthy:
160 TEs
150 RBs
250 WRs
If Gordon and Woodhead both stay healthy, Woodhead will probably get about 90 targets. He got 88 targets in 2013 under Whisenhunt, and the Chargers attempted 544 passes that season. Woodhead finished as RB12 that season in PPR. That is one of the good things about him, he has a high floor as long as he is healthy.
While Henry looks good so far, I see no reason for him to disrupt these projections. He will be blocking a lot more often than running routes, just as Green did.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Woodhead had 76 receptions on 88 targets in 2013 with Mathews, Gates, and Allen all in the line up on a regular basis. The only player that I recall being hurt that season was Malcolm Floyd. Woodhead had 227 fantasy points in 1 ppr leagues that year and ranked as RB12. That would have ranked as RB7 last year.
need2know
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Jed
Footballguy
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Could you go into further detail about how you arrive at 560 passing attempts? How many total plays do you have the Chargers running in 2016?
While I can agree with your overall premise that passing attempts should go down, I don't see them going down as much as you are suggesting here. I think the Chargers will still throw 600 or more times, which has become pretty much an expectation that I have for most NFL teams now with competent QB play.
Last 3 seasons with HC McCoy
2015 1100 total plays 667 passing attempts 393 rushing attempts (40 sacks)
2014 1009 total plays 574 passing attempts 398 rushing attempts (37 sacks)
2013 1060 total plays 544 passing attempts 486 rushing attempts (30 sacks)
Average 1056 total plays 595 passing attempts 426 rushing attempts (36 sacks)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
As far as Woodhead is concerned, I hear everyone and their mother talk about how Woodhead is undervalued, year after year he is people favorite sleeper.
He isn't a sleeper when everyone is touting him.
The OP cites ADP for Woodhead being 55 overall in PPR leagues. I am not sure what source of ADP the OP is using for this, but lets assume that is accurate for a minute.
55th overall is the top half of round four in 12 team leagues. This is very similar to ADP for Dion Lewis, another PPR dependent RB that is being over drafted. This is ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, DeVantae Parker and Tyler Lockett for example among many other players I would likely select before Woodhead.
Now according to MFL ADP Woodhead is being selected at 77 overall, which is not nearly as much of a reach as 55 overall as suggested by the OP. This is the top half of round six instead of round four, so much better in that regard, but still over valued imo. The TD and targets will likely go down from 2015 and 2013 totals that I think were Woodheads ceiling or best case scenario performance.
He isn't a sleeper when everyone is touting him.
The OP cites ADP for Woodhead being 55 overall in PPR leagues. I am not sure what source of ADP the OP is using for this, but lets assume that is accurate for a minute.
55th overall is the top half of round four in 12 team leagues. This is very similar to ADP for Dion Lewis, another PPR dependent RB that is being over drafted. This is ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, DeVantae Parker and Tyler Lockett for example among many other players I would likely select before Woodhead.
Now according to MFL ADP Woodhead is being selected at 77 overall, which is not nearly as much of a reach as 55 overall as suggested by the OP. This is the top half of round six instead of round four, so much better in that regard, but still over valued imo. The TD and targets will likely go down from 2015 and 2013 totals that I think were Woodheads ceiling or best case scenario performance.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
Gordon wasn't "historically" bad at all. After going back and watching his carries from '15, I was actually surprised by how many nice runs he made last season. He was just inconsistent and it partly had to do with O-line. I would make a slight reach for Gordon this season. SD will give him every chance to succeed, possibly even give him more carries inside the 5.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I sold Charles for a future 1st, future devy pick and Woodhead. I'm all aboard the Woodhead train! Choo choo!
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
ourmanflint
Footballguy
In 2013:
- Mathews rushed for 1255 and 6 scores and also caught 26 balls. He was RB17 and played 16 games.
- Allen caught 71 balls for 1000+ and 8 scores.
- Gates caught 77 balls for 872 and 4 scores.
- Eddie Royal caught 47 balls for 631 and 8 scores.
- The Chargers record was 9-7 and they attempted 544 passes.
People who think the Chargers are better equipped and therefore will not need Danny Woodhead do not understand how the Chargers use Danny Woodhead.
Tau837
Footballguy
IMO the 2013 Chargers offense is the model of what McCoy wants from his offense. When Mathews couldn't stay on the field in 2014, the team did not get what McCoy wants from the running game. So they let Mathews walk and drafted Gordon to get back to that style of offense. But they couldn't get back to the 2013 offense with the extensive injuries to the OL and with Gordon struggling as a rookie. There seems to be potential for Gordon to improve his play this year. If so, I think rushing attempts will definitely be up from 2015, which suggests that total plays and passing attempts will come down.
560 passing attempts splits the difference between 2013 and 2014. IMO the 667 passing attempts in 2015 were a significant outlier, and they do not plan to get close to that again.
Tau837
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So how many total plays? How many rushing attempts?
If the run to pass ratio increases for the run, that makes sense that total plays would fall a bit as more TOP is created for the offense.
I am having a hard time arriving at this 560 passing attempts unless the Chargers run a below average number of total plays (1030) or if they run the ball 460+ times. Either of these things are possible I suppose. The 3 year average is where I would start. 30-40 more rushing attempts with similar number of passing attempts less would I guess get you to 1020 and 560/460 pass/run. I still tend to think the Chargers will be forced to throw the ball a bit more than that, if they want to or not and the totals will be closer to the 3 year average of 1050 600/430 which leaves another 20 plays that could be on the run or pass side. Maybe 600/450 pass/run?
It is kind of hard for me to say they will slow things down so much that they end up running fewer than 1050 plays, but I suppose they could do that on purpose if that somehow helps the defense.
Tau837
Footballguy
You seem to ignore sacks in this post, though you didn't in your previous post. 560 pass attempts, 460 rushing attempts, and 30 sacks equals 1050 plays. I could see 580 attempts and 440 rushing attempts.
But 600+ pass attempts should only happen if the running game is ineffective again. I agree they will be at 600+ if Gordon struggles again; IMO his play is the key to how their run/pass splits will end up.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
Woodheads 2015 Stats: Game # - Rec - Total Yards - Total TDS - Full PPR Points
- 3 - 62 - 2 - 21.2
- 6 - 101 - 0 - 16.1
- 3 - 43 - 0 - 7.3
- 4 - 138 - 0 - 17.8
- 5 - 76 - 0 - 12.6
- 5 - 71 - 0 - 12.1
- 11 - 101 - 2 - 33.1
- 2 - 45 - 0 - 6.5
- 6 - 111 - 1 - 29.1
- 1 - 16 - 0 - 2.6
- 6 - 47 - 0 - 10.7
- 3 - 34 - 0 - 6.4
- 3 - 13 - 0 - 4.3
- 6 - 60 - 4 - 40.0
- 8 - 108 - 0 - 18.8
- 8 - 62 - 0 - 14.2
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
hmmJust Win Baby said:
So in this scenario how do you see rushing attempts distributed?
Most of Rivers seasons he has had about 30 rushing attempts. So that would be 430 rushing attempts for non QB players.
Certainly possible I am under-estimating Gordon and over estimating Woodhead due to the difference in passing attempts. I was thinking the RB get something like 380 rushing attempts between the 3 RB and I am not sure how those shake out although I would expect Gordon to get over 50% of them, possibly/probably more.
In both 2013 and 2015 Woodhead had about 16% of the targets. So at 600 pass attempts he would have 96 targets, which is similar to what he has had in those seasons. If it is 560 passing attempts that would be 89 targets. However if Woodhead only gets 13% of the targets at 560 this would be 73 targets.
Woodhead actually had worse ypc running the ball than Gordon at 3.4, which shows the offensive line wasn't helping any of the RB. Brown had 3.9 Oliver 3.5
Tau837
Footballguy
I would expect 460 rushing attempts to break down like this, assuming all players are healthy all season:
285 Gordon
90 Woodhead
35 Oliver
25 Rivers
15 FBs
10 WRs
Inevitably, some RBs will miss some time, which would impact those projections. This is in line with the 2013 season with Whisenhunt.
Obviously, this projection shows that I expect Gordon to improve, since he would not get close to that total if he doesn't. This is just under 18 carries per game for Gordon and just under 6 carries per game for Woodhead.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Looking at numberfire season long projections. These basically project week 1 and then season long projections are extrapolated from the week 1 projection.
Woodhead 82.65 rushing attempts 318.5 yards (3.8 ypc) 1.65 TD 86.81 receptions 791.22 yards(9.0 ypc) 3.39 TD 140.12 points standard 226.93 points PPR.
Gordon 254.90 rushing attempts 905.29 yards (3.6 ypc) 4.59 TD 37.62 receptions 241.27 yards (6.3 ypc) 0.18 TD 138.95 points standard 176.57 points PPR.
Oliver 35.87 rushing attempts 128.69 yards 0.73 TD 13.68 receptions 114.50 yards 0.43 TD 30.96 points standard 44.64 points PPR.
These seem pretty close to your rushing attempt totals. I disagree with the yards per carry numbers, which seem low.
They have Rivers throwing the ball 650 times. So Woodhead is getting about 13% of the targets in this scenario.
I am somewhere in between your passing attempts of 560 and where Numberfire is at 650 expecting about 600.
I think Woodhead gets 80 rushing attempts 304 yards (3.8 ypc) 1 TD 84 targets (14% of 600) at 80% catch rate is 68 receptions 593 yards (8.7 ypc) 3 TD which is 113.7 points standard 181.7 points PPR. This is similar points to what Charles Sims, Giovanni Bernard and Theo Riddick last season. The obvious difference being that I am only projecting 4 total TD instead of the 8 and 9 he scored in 2013 and 2015.
I was thinking that Gordon would have 240 rushing attempts and 50 targets, but maybe I am under estimating Gordon's rushing attempts here.
Woodhead 82.65 rushing attempts 318.5 yards (3.8 ypc) 1.65 TD 86.81 receptions 791.22 yards(9.0 ypc) 3.39 TD 140.12 points standard 226.93 points PPR.
Gordon 254.90 rushing attempts 905.29 yards (3.6 ypc) 4.59 TD 37.62 receptions 241.27 yards (6.3 ypc) 0.18 TD 138.95 points standard 176.57 points PPR.
Oliver 35.87 rushing attempts 128.69 yards 0.73 TD 13.68 receptions 114.50 yards 0.43 TD 30.96 points standard 44.64 points PPR.
These seem pretty close to your rushing attempt totals. I disagree with the yards per carry numbers, which seem low.
They have Rivers throwing the ball 650 times. So Woodhead is getting about 13% of the targets in this scenario.
I am somewhere in between your passing attempts of 560 and where Numberfire is at 650 expecting about 600.
I think Woodhead gets 80 rushing attempts 304 yards (3.8 ypc) 1 TD 84 targets (14% of 600) at 80% catch rate is 68 receptions 593 yards (8.7 ypc) 3 TD which is 113.7 points standard 181.7 points PPR. This is similar points to what Charles Sims, Giovanni Bernard and Theo Riddick last season. The obvious difference being that I am only projecting 4 total TD instead of the 8 and 9 he scored in 2013 and 2015.
I was thinking that Gordon would have 240 rushing attempts and 50 targets, but maybe I am under estimating Gordon's rushing attempts here.
Tau837
Footballguy
Agree that those ypc numbers look low. In particular, I do not see Gordon getting 250 carries if he is only averaging 3.6 ypc. It would not make sense for the Chargers to keep going to him that much if he is essentially playing no better than last season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Drafted Saturday - literally flipped a coin in my PPR between Gore & Woodhead as my RB3, came up Gore. Woodhead still on the board 2 rounds later. Had to have him.
I see the dropoff as ~30-40 points. Same receptions, team will still throw in goal line packages, not 100% sold on the Gordon hype & I don't see the offense shifting away from what worked so well last year.
more mouths to feed in the passing game, but Rivers loves his safety valve and that gives Woodhead a very safe weekly floor.
I see the dropoff as ~30-40 points. Same receptions, team will still throw in goal line packages, not 100% sold on the Gordon hype & I don't see the offense shifting away from what worked so well last year.
more mouths to feed in the passing game, but Rivers loves his safety valve and that gives Woodhead a very safe weekly floor.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
250 rushing attempts over 16 games is 15.6 rushing attempts/game.
2012 15 RB had 250 or more rushing attempts (counted Forte at 248 carries in 15 games) Bradshaw, McFadden, Leshoure, McCoy were on pace for 250 but missed games. That is 19 players.
2013 11 RB had 250 or more rushing attempts Bell and MJD were on pace for 250. That is 13 players.
2014 8 RB had 250 or more rushing attempts Ingram was on pace for 250. That is 9 players.
2015 5 RB had 250 or more rushing attempts Ivory, Stewart, Gurley, Forte, McCoy were on pace for 250. That is 10 players.
The trend is very clearly down as more teams pass the ball more frequently and rely more on a RBBC approach. I don't really see this trend reversing itself, but certainly possible some new workhorse type RB will emerge this season and in seasons ahead. That has to happen to replace two of the five RB from 2015 were 30 years old or older (Peterson and Gore).
If this trend of 3 less RB per season having 250 rushing attempts continued, there would only be two RB to have 250 or more rushing attempts in 2016.
I think 2015 is about as low as this can go. But who knows? Maybe in 2017 there will be zero RB getting 250 rushing attempts.
I agree it is becoming difficult to realistically expect a RB to carry the ball 16 times a game over the course of 16 games.
Maybe Gordon does it. If he does do it I would expect his ypc to be over 4.
flapgreen
Footballguy
