Why Pierre Garcon is Undervalued (1 Viewer)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

For some reason people are confused about the roles of Collie, Clark and Garcon and are undervaluing Garcon as a result. A few relevant facts...

[*]Garcon played in 13 regular season games and one playoff game (excluding Week 2 when he got hurt fairly early) and averaged 8.8 targets per game - never having less than six balls come his way.

[*]Dallas Clark's injury had absolutely no effect on Garcon's targets - as Tamme received an almost identical number of per/game targets as Clark. In fact Tamme averaged 9.1/game to Clark's 8.8.

[*]Likewise, Collie's injury had no significant effect on Garcon's targets: in the five games they both played 60 minutes Garcon had 45 targets (to Collie's 43), or nine per game; and in the eight games that Collie didn't play Garcon saw 70 targets - a virtually identical 8.75/game.

[*]The Colts probably won't throw 680 times again this season (though who knows - it's hard to see how their running game or defense will be any better), so that probably reduces everyone's targets by 15% or so.

[*]On the other hand, Wayne showed some possible signs of decay last year and will be 33 before the end of the season - and he had an other-worldy 175 targets in 2011. So even leaving aside a possible changing-of-the-guard adjustment of the 2011 targets it's possible that Wayne's will be hit disproportionately.

Adding it all up, I think you see Garcon with a steady 8-9 targets and five catches per game. i.e. almost exactly what he averaged last year. There's simply no reason to think his role will decrease. And it could improve if he takes the next step forward in his 4th year (per most big-name small-school WRs).

 

[DoubleG]

For some reason people are confused about the roles of Collie, Clark and Garcon and are undervaluing Garcon as a result. A few relevant facts...

[*]Garcon played in 13 regular season games and one playoff game (excluding Week 2 when he got hurt fairly early) and averaged 8.8 targets per game - never having less than six balls come his way.

[*]Dallas Clark's injury had absolutely no effect on Garcon's targets - as Tamme received an almost identical number of per/game targets as Clark. In fact Tamme averaged 9.1/game to Clark's 8.8.

[*]Likewise, Collie's injury had no significant effect on Garcon's targets: in the five games they both played 60 minutes Garcon had 45 targets (to Collie's 43), or nine per game; and in the eight games that Collie didn't play Garcon saw 70 targets - a virtually identical 8.75/game.

[*]The Colts probably won't throw 680 times again this season (though who knows - it's hard to see how their running game or defense will be any better), so that probably reduces everyone's targets by 15% or so.

[*]On the other hand, Wayne showed some possible signs of decay last year and will be 33 before the end of the season - and he had an other-worldy 175 targets in 2011. So even leaving aside a possible changing-of-the-guard adjustment of the 2011 targets it's possible that Wayne's will be hit disproportionately.

Adding it all up, I think you see Garcon with a steady 8-9 targets and five catches per game. i.e. almost exactly what he averaged last year. There's simply no reason to think his role will decrease. And it could improve if he takes the next step forward in his 4th year (per most big-name small-school WRs).

His "role" might not decrease, but the bolded shows you have answered why his "value" (i.e. production) likely will. You also fail to mention that there have been whispers (or possibly even loud talking) about Manning's diminishing skills - and more specifically his deep ball...which is Garcon's one "above average" trait for a WR (it certainly isn't his hand or route running).The part in red...ummm...how can I put this, "What?" Perhaps you'd like to provide some examples, because when you say "small school WRs" I think of a WR from Hoftsra who was pretty established in a year, or a guy from Abeline Christian who had Jay Cutler throwing him the ball in year 2 for almost 1k yards. I've heard of the "3 year WR theory" (which has been debunked) but the "4th Year Small School WR Theory"? That's a new one.

 

[Dez]

I got Garcon in a dynasty league this week for 3rd, 4th and 6th round rookie picks.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Colston is the exception.

Driver, VJAx, Austin followed similar career paths to each other and I think Garcon will belong in that group soon.

Agree with the comments about Manning, but his decline will more likely than not be slow. You never know, but that's how the great QBs have tended to go lately. Brian Burke just did a piece on that subject at Advanced Football Statistics. Worth a read.

 

[DoubleG]

Colston is the exception.

Driver, VJAx, Austin followed similar career paths to each other and I think Garcon will belong in that group soon.

Agree with the comments about Manning, but his decline will more likely than not be slow. You never know, but that's how the great QBs have tended to go lately. Brian Burke just did a piece on that subject at Advanced Football Statistics. Worth a read.

There is one significant difference between the 3 in bold and Garcon. All 3 in their respective first (Austin and Driver) or second (VJax) year of starting at least 8 games, they had 1k yard seasons. Garcon didn't do it on his first or second year as a starter...with arguably one of the best QBs in the game in one of the most high-powered passing offenses in the game. My point is simply that most receivers who follow the old "3 year" (or even 4 year)plan do so, becuase that's about the time they are anointed starters - thus comes the production. Not many WRs are starters for 2-3 years and then suddenly have a significant jump in production (barring changing to a new team with a great QB, or recovering from an injury that hampered production or some such) - the big jump is primarily in going from a 3rd/4th WR/special teams guy to a starter.

Some people think Garcon is suddenly going to "get it" - honestly, I see a faster version of Kevin Walter - a guy who will give you consistant WR3 numbers (which is fine, btw), but lacks the skill set to increase his production much above that. Walter's limiting factor is his speed (or lack thereof) - for Garcon it's is hands (or parallel lack thereof). If he hasn't shown "it" in 3 years - 2 as a full time starter, I think chances are much better that this year's statline will look like 65-800-6 than it will look anything like 80-1100-9. We might not have seen Garcon's best season - but I don't think his best is more than 10% or so more than his last 2.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Colston is the exception.

Driver, VJAx, Austin followed similar career paths to each other and I think Garcon will belong in that group soon.

Agree with the comments about Manning, but his decline will more likely than not be slow. You never know, but that's how the great QBs have tended to go lately. Brian Burke just did a piece on that subject at Advanced Football Statistics. Worth a read.

There is one significant difference between the 3 in bold and Garcon. All 3 in their respective first (Austin and Driver) or second (VJax) year of starting at least 8 games, they had 1k yard seasons. Garcon didn't do it on his first or second year as a starter...with arguably one of the best QBs in the game in one of the most high-powered passing offenses in the game. My point is simply that most receivers who follow the old "3 year" (or even 4 year)plan do so, becuase that's about the time they are anointed starters - thus comes the production. Not many WRs are starters for 2-3 years and then suddenly have a significant jump in production (barring changing to a new team with a great QB, or recovering from an injury that hampered production or some such) - the big jump is primarily in going from a 3rd/4th WR/special teams guy to a starter.

Some people think Garcon is suddenly going to "get it" - honestly, I see a faster version of Kevin Walter - a guy who will give you consistant WR3 numbers (which is fine, btw), but lacks the skill set to increase his production much above that. Walter's limiting factor is his speed (or lack thereof) - for Garcon it's is hands (or parallel lack thereof). If he hasn't shown "it" in 3 years - 2 as a full time starter, I think chances are much better that this year's statline will look like 65-800-6 than it will look anything like 80-1100-9. We might not have seen Garcon's best season - but I don't think his best is more than 10% or so more than his last 2.

Garcon already 'got it' IMO. 68-842-7 on 112 targets (61% catch rate) after he returned from injury in Week 5. That's a 13 games stretch where he put up an average of 15ppg - mid WR2 territory.ETA: 10% better than the numbers above comes out to 92-1140-9.5 when projected across 16 games. You may be even higher on him than I am

 

[DoubleG]

Colston is the exception.

Driver, VJAx, Austin followed similar career paths to each other and I think Garcon will belong in that group soon.

Agree with the comments about Manning, but his decline will more likely than not be slow. You never know, but that's how the great QBs have tended to go lately. Brian Burke just did a piece on that subject at Advanced Football Statistics. Worth a read.

There is one significant difference between the 3 in bold and Garcon. All 3 in their respective first (Austin and Driver) or second (VJax) year of starting at least 8 games, they had 1k yard seasons. Garcon didn't do it on his first or second year as a starter...with arguably one of the best QBs in the game in one of the most high-powered passing offenses in the game. My point is simply that most receivers who follow the old "3 year" (or even 4 year)plan do so, becuase that's about the time they are anointed starters - thus comes the production. Not many WRs are starters for 2-3 years and then suddenly have a significant jump in production (barring changing to a new team with a great QB, or recovering from an injury that hampered production or some such) - the big jump is primarily in going from a 3rd/4th WR/special teams guy to a starter.

Some people think Garcon is suddenly going to "get it" - honestly, I see a faster version of Kevin Walter - a guy who will give you consistant WR3 numbers (which is fine, btw), but lacks the skill set to increase his production much above that. Walter's limiting factor is his speed (or lack thereof) - for Garcon it's is hands (or parallel lack thereof). If he hasn't shown "it" in 3 years - 2 as a full time starter, I think chances are much better that this year's statline will look like 65-800-6 than it will look anything like 80-1100-9. We might not have seen Garcon's best season - but I don't think his best is more than 10% or so more than his last 2.

Garcon already 'got it' IMO. 68-842-7 on 112 targets (61% catch rate) after he returned from injury in Week 5. That's a 13 games stretch where he put up an average of 15ppg - mid WR2 territory.ETA: 10% better than the numbers above comes out to 92-1140-9.5 when projected across 16 games. You may be even higher on him than I am

- No, I meant 10% better than his actual numbers. Not a 10% improvement on some hypothetical ideal situation...but I think you knew that.

 

[geoff8695]

I like Garcon's skillset quite a bit and had held onto him for a couple of years in a dynasty league. However, his value is completely tied to Manning IMO, and the (chronic?) neck injury and steadily decreasing strength/accuracy of his downfield passes over the last two seasons scares me quite a bit.

Not asking anyone to agree with me here but I've noticed both outside WRs in the Colts offense have seen a decline in yds per catch, and I'm attributing that more to Manning's eroding ability to stretch the defense. So seeing Garcon's upside as being 'nerfed' or capped by Manning's decline, and fearing that Peyton isn't going to be getting back his downfield accuracy at this stage of his career (and with two successive seasons of neck surgeries), I decided to trade Garcon away last weekend. I still like his talent. Just think the situation isn't as rosy as I once thought it was...

 

[treat88]

Colston is the exception.

Driver, VJAx, Austin followed similar career paths to each other and I think Garcon will belong in that group soon.

Agree with the comments about Manning, but his decline will more likely than not be slow. You never know, but that's how the great QBs have tended to go lately. Brian Burke just did a piece on that subject at Advanced Football Statistics. Worth a read.

There is one significant difference between the 3 in bold and Garcon. All 3 in their respective first (Austin and Driver) or second (VJax) year of starting at least 8 games, they had 1k yard seasons. Garcon didn't do it on his first or second year as a starter...with arguably one of the best QBs in the game in one of the most high-powered passing offenses in the game. My point is simply that most receivers who follow the old "3 year" (or even 4 year)plan do so, becuase that's about the time they are anointed starters - thus comes the production. Not many WRs are starters for 2-3 years and then suddenly have a significant jump in production (barring changing to a new team with a great QB, or recovering from an injury that hampered production or some such) - the big jump is primarily in going from a 3rd/4th WR/special teams guy to a starter.

Some people think Garcon is suddenly going to "get it" - honestly, I see a faster version of Kevin Walter - a guy who will give you consistant WR3 numbers (which is fine, btw), but lacks the skill set to increase his production much above that. Walter's limiting factor is his speed (or lack thereof) - for Garcon it's is hands (or parallel lack thereof). If he hasn't shown "it" in 3 years - 2 as a full time starter, I think chances are much better that this year's statline will look like 65-800-6 than it will look anything like 80-1100-9. We might not have seen Garcon's best season - but I don't think his best is more than 10% or so more than his last 2.

Garcon already 'got it' IMO. 68-842-7 on 112 targets (61% catch rate) after he returned from injury in Week 5. That's a 13 games stretch where he put up an average of 15ppg - mid WR2 territory.ETA: 10% better than the numbers above comes out to 92-1140-9.5 when projected across 16 games. You may be even higher on him than I am

I like the catch percentage as my biggest concern has always been his inconsistent hands.However, I have to wonder about the targets with Clark back and supposedly healthy. I think that 13 game number might get spread out over 16 games and may actually even diminish over that span.

I'd look for a slight down tick in total numbers even if healthy for the full season.

 

[Captain Hook]

I think Garcon as well as the other Colt wideouts slipped the last few weeks due to the concern about whether Manning would play in Week 1 - or maybe even Week 2

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

That's ten TDs in his last eleven games.