Why should I keep Matt Carpenter? (1 Viewer)

[E-Z Glider]

He was a great waiver wire pickup for me last year. Wasnt drafted because he didnt even have a starting job out of ST. He's been solid at every level, but no pedigree, doesnt have much power and has no speed. Im considering dropping him in favor of Rizzo and Cashner which seems insane because he's ranked by most publications as the #2 or #3 2B.

I just hate "buying high" and I have a hard time keeping a guy based on BA and Runs. Seems unlikely (to me at least) that he will repeat the success he had last year (he broke Stan Musials record for runs or some crazy ####).

Amicrazy?

 

[cheese]

I hate him at the price he's going at and I would still not be considering Rizzo or Cashner I don't think.

 

[E-Z Glider]

I hate him at the price he's going at and I would still not be considering Rizzo or Cashner I don't think.

I pretty much thought the same thing all winter, but now that the time is here, I just cant do it. Im probably too attached to Rizzo since Ive had him all though the minor and I got a BIG mancrush on Cashner and pitching is thin. I really should drop Rizzo and keep Carpenter, but I just cant seem to bring myself to push the button.

 

[Eephus]

Depends a lot on your league's keeper rules. If you got him on the cheap last year, he's still one of the best options at a thin position. He'll lose a lot of his appeal if he loses 2B eligibility in 2015.

 

[E-Z Glider]

Depends a lot on your league's keeper rules. If you got him on the cheap last year, he's still one of the best options at a thin position. He'll lose a lot of his appeal if he loses 2B eligibility in 2015.

Yeah, he's cheap. Only a couple bucks more than Rizzo and Cashner, but Im still not excited. I feel like its Cano, and then Kipnis/Pedroia, and then a bunch of dreck at 2B. Im always looking for upside and I just dont see any with Carpenter. Of course, the floor isnt as low either. Just seems sexier to me to roll the dice on someone like Utley/Gyorko/Rendon.

 

[Eephus]

Depends a lot on your league's keeper rules. If you got him on the cheap last year, he's still one of the best options at a thin position. He'll lose a lot of his appeal if he loses 2B eligibility in 2015.

Yeah, he's cheap. Only a couple bucks more than Rizzo and Cashner, but Im still not excited. I feel like its Cano, and then Kipnis/Pedroia, and then a bunch of dreck at 2B. Im always looking for upside and I just dont see any with Carpenter. Of course, the floor isnt as low either. Just seems sexier to me to roll the dice on someone like Utley/Gyorko/Rendon.

Consistent production and good value aren't sexy but you can't win without them.

 

[E-Z Glider]

Consistent production and good value aren't sexy but you can't win without them.

Its the consistent production part that worries me. I have a hard time seeing any scenario where all of his counting stats (other than SB's maybe?) don't go down in 2015. He should still score 100 runs, but other than that, Im not sure, and I just dont like taking a guy based on runs.

Anyway, appreciate you guys talking me through this. Still not sure what Im going to do.

 

[Eephus]

Consistent production and good value aren't sexy but you can't win without them.

Its the consistent production part that worries me. I have a hard time seeing any scenario where all of his counting stats (other than SB's maybe?) don't go down in 2015. He should still score 100 runs, but other than that, Im not sure, and I just dont like taking a guy based on runs. Anyway, appreciate you guys talking me through this. Still not sure what Im going to do.

His 2013 BABIP was above average but some of that should be repeatable. His LD% rates are high and his IF FB% rates are very low. He hit 55 doubles last year. Maybe a few more of those clear the fences this year.

But I agree his upside is limited. He's 28 years old and wasn't a power/speed guy in the minors. I can see him settling into an Aaron Hill type career--very valuable in real life but less so in fantasy.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

No pedigree? He's been a sick OBP guy his entire career.

He had that job locked up last spring. This wasn't out of nowhere.

 

[RnR]

No pedigree? He's been a sick OBP guy his entire career.

He had that job locked up last spring. This wasn't out of nowhere.

 

[E-Z Glider]

No pedigree?

He had that job locked up last spring. This wasn't out of nowhere.

Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2009 amateur draft.

ETA - he went undrafted in 2013 Cakeleeg

 

[RnR]

No pedigree?

He had that job locked up last spring. This wasn't out of nowhere.

Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2009 amateur draft.

ETA - he went undrafted in 2013 Cakeleeg

What?

18.04 TU - Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B/OF, STL

 

[E-Z Glider]

No pedigree?

He had that job locked up last spring. This wasn't out of nowhere.

Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2009 amateur draft.

ETA - he went undrafted in 2013 Cakeleeg

What?

18.04 TU - Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B/OF, STL

18th round is pretty much the same thing.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

No pedigree?

He had that job locked up last spring. This wasn't out of nowhere.

Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2009 amateur draft.

ETA - he went undrafted in 2013 Cakeleeg

What?

18.04 TU - Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B/OF, STL

18th round is pretty much the same thing.

Wrong.

 

[RnR]

Pick 292 out of 448 with no guarantee of 2B eligibility at that point.

 

[E-Z Glider]

Pick 292 out of 448 with no guarantee of 2B eligibility at that point.

But do you actually like him for this year?

Rizzo $1, Carpenter $6, Cashner $2 Which 2 do you keep?

 

[RnR]

Pick 292 out of 448 with no guarantee of 2B eligibility at that point.

But do you actually like him for this year?

Rizzo $1, Carpenter $6, Cashner $2 Which 2 do you keep?

It's probably more complicated than just those $$ numbers. What's the 2B market going to be like? How long can you keep guys at that price? How many teams? What are the cats? Etc..

 

[Eephus]

Pick 292 out of 448 with no guarantee of 2B eligibility at that point.

But do you actually like him for this year?

Rizzo $1, Carpenter $6, Cashner $2 Which 2 do you keep?

Carpenter and Rizzo.

I've been a big proponent of Cashner on this board and I love him at $2 but it's a lot easier to find SP than everyday hitters.

 

[E-Z Glider]

Consistent production and good value aren't sexy but you can't win without them.

Its the consistent production part that worries me. I have a hard time seeing any scenario where all of his counting stats (other than SB's maybe?) don't go down in 2015. He should still score 100 runs, but other than that, Im not sure, and I just dont like taking a guy based on runs. Anyway, appreciate you guys talking me through this. Still not sure what Im going to do.

His 2013 BABIP was above average but some of that should be repeatable. His LD% rates are high and his IF FB% rates are very low. He hit 55 doubles last year. Maybe a few more of those clear the fences this year.

But I agree his upside is limited. He's 28 years old and wasn't a power/speed guy in the minors. I can see him settling into an Aaron Hill type career--very valuable in real life but less so in fantasy.

Fangraphs says he wont repeat the runs.

In fact, given his lack of speed (which can turn singles into doubles and change your ISO), his best comps are Aaron Hill and Yadier Molina.

, Matt.