Why the love for Ladarius this week? (1 Viewer)

[BillyBobBoDean]

I know Rivers throws a ton and the Ravens pass D is bad, but let me explain why I am confused. I love stats, and really most content on Football Guys is about stats with opinion thrown in. I'm OK with that. So, here are some stats: besides one game where TE Gary Barnidge went 8-139-1 against the Ravens D, in the other six games against the Baltimore D the opposing TE has gone for a total of 13-103-0. I see where almost everyone is taking LG as their TE in DFS. What drives this? A hunch? Price? Some unknown news I'm not privy too?

 

[BillyBobBoDean]

18 views and no feedback? Exactly why Football Guys are dead in my book and will never get another penny of my money. (Subscriber for as long as there has been a subscription)

 

[John Lee]

18 views and no feedback? Exactly why Football Guys are dead in my book and will never get another penny of my money. (Subscriber for as long as there has been a subscription)

Huh?? 18 views and you're upset that nobody gave you a detailed answer within an hour? People have work, dinner, families, and obligations...there isn't a thread in this forum that has a single post in it--be patient.

Regarding your question: Look at the logs for TE's against Baltimore: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/mycustomsosdetail.php?pos=te&team=rav&yr=2015&profile=dk

Aside from Barnidge, the Ravens haven't played a tight end that is an integral part of their opponents' offense. Heath Miller might fall into that category, but Michael Vick killed the value of every receiver on that team when he was playing. Aside from Heath, you have Jermaine Gresham, Vance McDonald, Ryan Hewitt, Mychal Rivera, and Owen Daniels.

Meanwhile, Ladarius Green is averaging 7 targets per game when Antonio Gates isn't playing...at $3000 on DK and $5300 on FD, he's a solid play because of that volume. Don't be fooled by the Ravens' "success" against the TE position...they just haven't played many talented tight ends.

 

[Bobcat10]

Based on your stats, the Ravens have shut down one good TE (Eifert...oh ya Green had a MONSTER game) and got shredded by the other good TE they played (Barnidge). The rest are garbage and not utilized. You said it yourself, Rivers throws a ton. Many will take their chances at Green's price point because Rivers actually uses his TE, 63 targets. Do yourself a favor, fade him.

 

[DukeBroadway]

I was gonna reply, but being a Football Guy, but I am now dead to you. Dead men tell no tales or fantasy football opinions.

 

[Wadsworth]

I like Green because I think he is very good and under priced. High target/completion percentage, 14+ yards per catch and a strong 7 TD/66 catches. Gates has kept his opportunity limited, but I expect him to shine when given the chance. The Ravens are not the perfect match up, but Green should see plenty of targets and the Ravens do not scare me defensively.

That said, his ownership levels in Thrus games is 12%ish, which is higher than I hoped. By Sunday if Gates is a scratch I might not be as high on him.

 

[Bobcat10]

Dammit, John!

 

[DukeBroadway]

Should have listened to the Football Guys/Rotogrinder podcast. John basically said what he nicely replied to you in that podcast. Its worth the time to listen/watch.

 

[eoMMan]

I was gonna reply, but being a Football Guy, but I am now dead to you. Dead men tell no tales or fantasy football opinions.

Yes. No response from me now.

 

[Apple Jack]

wait, we're supposed to be getting paid?

 

[Bri]

Their defense gives the impression QBs do whatever they want. Limiting is only a means of a favorite target being open "all day."

Rivers loves Allen and the TE.

Stevie got some love as has Floyd but it still seems Allen and the TE

 

[wyattroa]

18 views and no feedback? Exactly why Football Guys are dead in my book and will never get another penny of my money. (Subscriber for as long as there has been a subscription)

LOL..Butthurt much? You get all these responses now and dont give one back.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Loved the fact that Green got both targets (and converted both) last week for the 2 point conversions. Not just because they are worth 2 points, but it points to future potential inside the 5 to design plays for him. Assuming Gates is out, even without factoring in price I think there is a valid argument to start Green over any TE outside of Gronk and maybe Olsen.

 

[BillyBobBoDean]

My butt don't hurt at all, I believe my point should be well received by now. I faded Green and Gates in all lineups today. Hell, Tamme got me almost 11 times value and Gillmore did as well as both Chargers TE. Sorry for pissing on this site, but for me it's like weather forecasters, if you can't forecast the weather from 2 days out, or can't forecast football stats from 2 days out, what good is it? I understand the randomness in both, so why shouldn't save my money and buy lottery tickets? There, I gave my response back.

 

[Bobcat10]

Your point? Lol

Most people that post in the FD thread didn't end up playing Green. With Gates active it didn't make any sense.

Didn't Green get hurt also? You should have predicted that.

 

[jandyt]

My butt don't hurt at all, I believe my point should be well received by now. I faded Green and Gates in all lineups today. Hell, Tamme got me almost 11 times value and Gillmore did as well as both Chargers TE. Sorry for pissing on this site, but for me it's like weather forecasters, if you can't forecast the weather from 2 days out, or can't forecast football stats from 2 days out, what good is it? I understand the randomness in both, so why shouldn't save my money and buy lottery tickets? There, I gave my response back.

No one was nearly as high on Green once it was known Gates would play. Also no one, not even you, could of predicted he would get hurt and play less than half the game. If you projected Tamme for 10 catches for 100 yards and TD then well done man. And if you believe projecting NFL players is as random as the lottery then load up on lottery tickets or better yet save your money and do neither.

 

[Wadsworth]

Good call. Were you off L. Bell, K. Allen, Smith Sr. and Fitzpatrick as well?

 

[Bobcat10]

This guy just has a bone to pick with fbg really. From Oct 20:

" the first three weeks FootballGuys was on top of providing content I could use, but lately they don't seem to care, they never respond in the forums and I suspect they are too busy trying to squeeze out the last few bucks that they can get before the walls come tumbling down to provide content or customer service."

 

[BillyBobBoDean]

I've been on Football Guys since they were Cheat Sheets and have been a subscriber since the subscription site started. I love Football Guys, so you all get your panties untwisted. I do not believe anyone can predict an injury (Wadsworth), and all you fanboys that defend FBG to the highest? Go ahead, I've been a fan for years. This is the greatest FFB site I know. But over the years I have used their information along with my own and it has not really been much of an asset. Sorry. I decided to delve into DFS fully this year after a couple meager attempts in the last two years. I study everything that FB Guys puts out. Everything! So after 8 weeks of DFS I am basically even. I could probably do as good as listening to Fabiano and Berry. Sorry, Bobcat! I just keep seeing the cash game lineups that the experts post, but they never publish the results of those when the week is done. Accountability would be a plus. Are they all losing money?

 

[Bobcat10]

I've had a pretty big voice in wanting to see those reaults as well. I'm sure we will at some point. Not holding my breath for this year though.

 

[John Lee]

Since I've been active in this thread and BillyBobBoDean seems to be calling out the legitimacy of the material that FBG staff ("experts," of which I presumably am one) is producing, I gotta say a few things:

1) I have had countless subscribers reach out to me on Twitter & email about how much our content has helped them become profitable players this season. In Week 6, a listener of our Audible DK podcast said that he won $50K based on our recommendations...and last week, another person said he won $150K. Just because you (BillyBob) aren't winning, doesn't mean that the advice/content is poor.

2) The cash game lineups that are posted by staff members are in the public eye every week; stating that those individuals are not 'accountable' is unfair. If you want to know how a given staff member has done, it would be easy enough to determine, as all rosters are published. As for me? You don't even have to do the math...just follow this link each week: http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/daily-fantasy-experts.php. I think you'll see that I'm holding my own amongst some of the best players in the DFS world...

 

[Ebaker5]

Somebody get a bucket of ice.... that ish is gonna BURN lol

 

[NixonMask]

I've been on Football Guys since they were Cheat Sheets and have been a subscriber since the subscription site started. I love Football Guys, so you all get your panties untwisted. I do not believe anyone can predict an injury (Wadsworth), and all you fanboys that defend FBG to the highest? Go ahead, I've been a fan for years. This is the greatest FFB site I know. But over the years I have used their information along with my own and it has not really been much of an asset. Sorry. I decided to delve into DFS fully this year after a couple meager attempts in the last two years. I study everything that FB Guys puts out. Everything! So after 8 weeks of DFS I am basically even. I could probably do as good as listening to Fabiano and Berry. Sorry, Bobcat! I just keep seeing the cash game lineups that the experts post, but they never publish the results of those when the week is done. Accountability would be a plus. Are they all losing money?

The difference between winning and losing is so small. Last year I lost two deposits, this year I'm up almost 700%. Fingers crossed I keep it up but who knows. As someone who's been down I'd recommend just taking a step back, maybe a week off, and restart fresh. I did that after a brutal week of both NCAA and NFL earlier this year, cut my games to almost nothing. Stopped me from over thinking and making the same bad decisions. As for the football guys experts, they're not psychics. They're going to make bad calls sometimes. Sound bankroll management will keep you afloat for the good calls.

 

[Bobcat10]

Since I've been active in this thread and BillyBobBoDean seems to be calling out the legitimacy of the material that FBG staff ("experts," of which I presumably am one) is producing, I gotta say a few things:

1) I have had countless subscribers reach out to me on Twitter & email about how much our content has helped them become profitable players this season. In Week 6, a listener of our Audible DK podcast said that he won $50K based on our recommendations...and last week, another person said he won $150K. Just because you (BillyBob) aren't winning, doesn't mean that the advice/content is poor.

2) The cash game lineups that are posted by staff members are in the public eye every week; stating that those individuals are not 'accountable' is unfair. If you want to know how a given staff member has done, it would be easy enough to determine, as all rosters are published. As for me? You don't even have to do the math...just follow this link each week: http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/daily-fantasy-experts.php. I think you'll see that I'm holding my own amongst some of the best players in the DFS world...

Unfortunately, I can't remember the last time I saw your lineup posted in the staff lineup article. Also, that list is for FD and you don't even provide any FD content here. Not bagging on you, but it's very interesting that you are the best salary-capper on FBG, and really currently in the industry, in regards to FD, yet you are providing none of that value to the customer base here. If I'm missing something, please let me know. Again, I loved your work last year here for FD and wish they didn't move you to DK.

 

[BillyBobBoDean]

I'm sorry that I offended you John Lee, I seriously love Football Guys. The only thing that I was trying to say in my original post was this: Seems like "the wisdom" is to start a TE against Oakland. The stats seem to back that up. I see it on every football advice site. What I don't understand is advice to start a TE against the fifth toughest D for TE. Seems like a double standard. Yes, I had Jacob Tamme in half my lineups; Hankerson was out, White is basically a non-factor, and T. Bay is an average (15th) D against TEs and he was ranked at 14. I guess if I disagree with the rankings then I'm a #### for it. Again, sorry John Lee, I love your work.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I'm sorry that I offended you John Lee, I seriously love Football Guys. The only thing that I was trying to say in my original post was this: Seems like "the wisdom" is to start a TE against Oakland. The stats seem to back that up. I see it on every football advice site. What I don't understand is advice to start a TE against the fifth toughest D for TE. Seems like a double standard. Yes, I had Jacob Tamme in half my lineups; Hankerson was out, White is basically a non-factor, and T. Bay is an average (15th) D against TEs and he was ranked at 14. I guess if I disagree with the rankings then I'm a #### for it. Again, sorry John Lee, I love your work.

What's the big deal in simply disagreeing with them on that call? I don't think anyone on FBG is encouraging anyone to blindly take their recommendations. Pretty much every week there are multiple players I don't exactly see eye-to-eye with the staffers at FBG on. Heck, every week there are players the FBG staffers themselves don't see eye-to-eye on. I give these guys great deference -- they do this for a living and have a solid track record from my perspective -- but I don't try to blindly figure out their "optimum" lineups and use them blindly. I don't think John, or any of the rest of them for that matter, necessarily want anyone to do that either. They're projections. By their very nature they are imprecise educated guesses that are going to be subject to wide ranges of variance even if they are "right".

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I had Ladarius Green ranked extremely high as of Sunday morning at 3:30 a.m. (Pacific) when I did my "final" pre-inactive-list projections and set my DFS lineups.

By around 8:00 a.m., or whenever it was first announced that Gates was expected to play, I reduced my Ladarius Green projections to the point that he was unstartable on any DFS site. (I didn't have Gates projected highly enough to start, either.)

Things change fast. Between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m., I had to edit about 70% of my FanDuel lineups to get Green out of there. (I mostly got Michael Floyd out of there as well. Oops.)

I maintain that if Gates had been inactive and if Green hadn't gotten injured, he would have been a terrific value at FanDuel and other DFS sites. But we'll never know. That's a counterfactual. With Gates active, I no longer believed he had decent value.

I don't put much stock into "always start TEs against the Raiders" or "never start TEs against the Ravens." Those are mostly "splits happen" situations. General strength of opponent matters; playing a poor defense will increase opportunities for all offensive players on a team. But trying to single out just TEs is overfitting the data, IMO.

 

[Gustavo Fring]

I've been on Football Guys since they were Cheat Sheets and have been a subscriber since the subscription site started. I love Football Guys, so you all get your panties untwisted. I do not believe anyone can predict an injury (Wadsworth), and all you fanboys that defend FBG to the highest? Go ahead, I've been a fan for years. This is the greatest FFB site I know. But over the years I have used their information along with my own and it has not really been much of an asset. Sorry. I decided to delve into DFS fully this year after a couple meager attempts in the last two years. I study everything that FB Guys puts out. Everything! So after 8 weeks of DFS I am basically even. I could probably do as good as listening to Fabiano and Berry. Sorry, Bobcat! I just keep seeing the cash game lineups that the experts post, but they never publish the results of those when the week is done. Accountability would be a plus. Are they all losing money?

Here's an idea, how about you do you own statistical analysis since you have been "in-the-game" for so long, instead of piggy-backing off of all the experts opinions? The guys who provide analysis here are very knowledgeable in the sport of football, but that doesn't mean every single player they like every week is going to be a home run. They are just as prone to game variance as the rest of us.

If you do your own research and then compare your analysis to theirs, that is when you start to learn from the mistakes that you are making and what areas you may need to improve on from becoming a losing/breakeven player to a profitable one.