Will Colston Sustain, Exceed or Bust? (1 Viewer)

[MVP96]

Colston had a great year last year, as he was able to catch a lot of teams off guard. Horn didn't play much, so I don't buy into the fact that he was matched-up against the #2 corners. I also can't believe that he would be a bust this year, but can see a drop off in production. He has a tough schedule this year, and will be facing some pressures. Does it matter with S. Peyton calling the plays and Brees slinging the ball? Will Colson produce or fade into the histories of the Kerry Colberts and Michael Claytons???

 

[semaj33]

kind of discussed here....

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=316865&hl=

and i am giving clayton one more year...

 

[az_prof]

Any answer would be purely conjecture.

That being said, my conjecture is that he won't bust for one simple reason: Drew Brees. If you look at Clayton, for example, he didn't benefit from a top notch QB throwing him the ball. Truth be told, any starting WR for NO this year would be likely to put up respectable numbers.

Now, although I don't believe Colston will bust, I also do not expect him to exceed. It would be a fallacy to assert that he must do one or the other; he could simply do the same or do ok, but not bust. And, on the other hand, although I don't think he will bust, it would be a mistake for anyone to assume that there is no risk. Until a player has performed at a certain level for a period of years you simply cannot assume that they will repeat. I can recall when David Boston was the next coming of Jerry Rice, and now he is struggling to make a TB roster and didn't make the roster last year.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I think he'll exceed. First, if he's healthy all year his numbers should go up anyway. But I think the Saints will come down to earth, meaning they'll be playing from behind a bit. Brees already has chemistry with Colston, and I think he'll lean on him.

Last year, when he was hurt, I read something about the Saints having to change their playbook since some plays were in there just for him. If that's the impact he made as a rookie, I think he'll have every chance to exceed his production in 2007.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Bust

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Colston has the size, speed, he gets open, and he catches everything. I don't think there is any way he turns into a bust, and I think comparing him to Clayton is ridiculous. He has a great offensive mind calling plays, an accurate QB in Brees, and most important, Reggie Bush will always draw the most attention from the defense.

He may not do much more than his rookie season in 2007, but he definitely will not be a bust. He will be a stud for many years to come.

 

[Boston]

As long as the kid's head is on straight (i.e. he didn't get a big head this offseason and worked out hard) I see no reason to believe he won't pick up where he was when he got injured. He has a real nice package of size/skills and seemed incredibly comfortable at the NFL level for a kid who was playing at Hofstra the year before. His transistion to the Pro game was very impressive and now that he has more of an idea of what he's doing he's primed to have a very nice year/career.

One of the more impressive things I saw last year was the playcalling in New Orleans. The fact that among the key players in the Saint offense was a QB in his first year with a new team and offense and two rookies playing major roles (a third if you count Evans on the line) makes their performance even more impressive . Payton really played to the strengths of his players and there's little doubt they have a chance to be an even scarier unit as they enter year two. Colston's in a great situation and I'm projecting him to do what he did pre-injury for a full 16 games.

 

[Double_J]

Huge bust this year for his draft position. He goes no later than the 3rd in every mock I do which is crazy. He goes before Driver, TJ, Coles, Randy Moss, and others that he has no business going before. He'll do good this year, but nowhere near his ADP. Plus New Orleans got much better on defense this year so they shouldn't have to put up as many points. I think EJ and Meachum will steal catches from him as well. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at his ADP.

 

[Billy1x]

Huge bust this year for his draft position. He goes no later than the 3rd in every mock I do which is crazy. He goes before Driver, TJ, Coles, Randy Moss, and others that he has no business going before. He'll do good this year, but nowhere near his ADP. Plus New Orleans got much better on defense this year so they shouldn't have to put up as many points. I think EJ and Meachum will steal catches from him as well. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at his ADP.

Good points. He looks to me like A. Boldin. He runs good routes and thats what separates him form Jenkins and Clayton. Bottom line - he can get open. I don't see Meachum doing much this year. The one big variable is how many TDs he gets as he has to share with Bush and McAlister.That being said you need to look at the ADP. He will likely be drafted before his value rises to the top.

 

[shamrock84]

Bust

I like your reasoning...

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Good QB, Good solid playcalling, good running game. Horn was a nonfactor last year anyway, add in an improved TE in EJ, I see no reason to not like his situation and opportunity and he seems to be a little undervalued due to people fearing the "bust" factor or sophomore slump.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Huge bust this year for his draft position. He goes no later than the 3rd in every mock I do which is crazy. He goes before Driver, TJ, Coles, Randy Moss, and others that he has no business going before. He'll do good this year, but nowhere near his ADP. Plus New Orleans got much better on defense this year so they shouldn't have to put up as many points. I think EJ and Meachum will steal catches from him as well. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at his ADP.

Most mocks I've done he goes after Driver & TJ. peronsally I wouldnt take Moss or Coles before him.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Huge bust this year for his draft position. He goes no later than the 3rd in every mock I do which is crazy. He goes before Driver, TJ, Coles, Randy Moss, and others that he has no business going before. He'll do good this year, but nowhere near his ADP. Plus New Orleans got much better on defense this year so they shouldn't have to put up as many points. I think EJ and Meachum will steal catches from him as well. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at his ADP.

In redraft, FBG has him ranked ahead of Driver, Coles, and Housh.

 

[LC512]

Saints fan here. As of now (things are still really fluid in my rankings) I have him as WR29. 67 receptions 924 yards, 6 touchdowns. He'll still be an extremely valuable and solid player in "real life", but not so much as a fantasy player, IMO. Both Payton and Brees love to use the TE, and the Saints now have a true pass-catching TE who can make things happen on his own in Eric Johnson. He'll steal some of the targets. Bush is going to be an even greater factor this year, and I expect his touches to go up. Meachem will see some touches, and Brees can't ignore the gamebreaking ability of Devery Henderson.

Further, I think the defense will be noticeably better. Not top 10 or anything, but better, with the additions of MLB Brian Simmons, FS Kevin Kaesviharn, the return of 2006 2nd round pick Roman Harper (who was playing like the MVP of our defense before his injury), CB Jason David, and to a lesser extent some rotational additions to the defensive line.

I'm expecting Payton to lean on the running game a little more than last year. Even Antonio Pittman should get some touches.

I think Colston's touches will go down by about 5, and his yards per reception will go down a little bit as well. He had a couple of flukey long plays last year (see: TD vs. Carolina), and defenses will be paying more attention to him this year.

Honestly, the only Saints player I like better than their ADP is Reggie Bush. And that hurts to say, because he's probably my least favorite player on the team.

I have Brees as QB4, Colston as WR29, Reggie as RB7, and Deuce as RB21

 

[bcr8f]

Colston has the size, speed, he gets open, and he catches everything. I don't think there is any way he turns into a bust, and I think comparing him to Clayton is ridiculous. He has a great offensive mind calling plays, an accurate QB in Brees, and most important, Reggie Bush will always draw the most attention from the defense. He may not do much more than his rookie season in 2007, but he definitely will not be a bust. He will be a stud for many years to come.

I agree he won't bust. I don't agree he is a stud until he proves he can do it 1 or 2 more seasons. There is a huge gap between bust and stud.

 

[bcr8f]

Why he is overvalued(scroll down)

 

[Pitch12]

I think he'll be slightly better. I'm thinking 1,200 yards and 8-9 TDs. He's such a dangerous threat in the red zone, so those TDs could be higher. But as long as he is healthy, he will be fine.

 

[Z-Dog]

Huge bust this year for his draft position. He goes no later than the 3rd in every mock I do which is crazy. He goes before Driver, TJ, Coles, Randy Moss, and others that he has no business going before. He'll do good this year, but nowhere near his ADP. Plus New Orleans got much better on defense this year so they shouldn't have to put up as many points. I think EJ and Meachum will steal catches from him as well. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at his ADP.

Colston will need to improve on his numbers to justify his ADP - I prefer guys like Driver, who never get respect, only numbers.

 

[MVP96]

He faces one of the toughest projected Corner Back match-ups of all receivers. Think he can rise to the occasion or is this bit of info overlooked by many?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

He faces one of the toughest projected Corner Back match-ups of all receivers. Think he can rise to the occasion or is this bit of info overlooked by many?

personally I think that is a tad overrated in the pre-season.

 

[kensat30]

I find it funny that Colston is being drafted on what he did last year in basically 12 games. Yes 12 games, not the 14 he is listed at under the FBG final PPG listing. The guy was an absolute stud last year in PPG, easily top5 and probably top3 when you look at adjusted games played. And you don't have to spend a top10 WR pick on the guy? Well worth the risk IMO.

Eric Johnson is made out of glass. Robert Meachem is a rookie. Seriously? That's not even mentioning that Joe Horn is no longer on the roster. Colston is easily going to lead the team in targets and Drew Brees knows how to deliver him catchable passes. I think Colston will convert on a lot of those targets as long as he stays healthy. Colston's health is the biggest risk here. Draft deep at WR and you will be fine.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

with the departure of Horn, I expect Colston to stay the same or take a small step forward. I know the saints drafted meachem, but rookie WRs rarely produce well.

 

[Tau837]

Huge bust this year for his draft position. He goes no later than the 3rd in every mock I do which is crazy. He goes before Driver, TJ, Coles, Randy Moss, and others that he has no business going before. He'll do good this year, but nowhere near his ADP. Plus New Orleans got much better on defense this year so they shouldn't have to put up as many points. I think EJ and Meachum will steal catches from him as well. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at his ADP.

Most mocks I've done he goes after Driver & TJ. peronsally I wouldnt take Moss or Coles before him.

Was just about to post the same thing.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Huge bust this year for his draft position. He goes no later than the 3rd in every mock I do which is crazy. He goes before Driver, TJ, Coles, Randy Moss, and others that he has no business going before. He'll do good this year, but nowhere near his ADP. Plus New Orleans got much better on defense this year so they shouldn't have to put up as many points. I think EJ and Meachum will steal catches from him as well. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at his ADP.

Most mocks I've done he goes after Driver & TJ. peronsally I wouldnt take Moss or Coles before him.

Was just about to post the same thing.

 

[Turbo Punch]

For some reason Colston reminds me of Marcus Robinson - A big physical WR who came out of nowhere to have a monster season. I know Robinson had injury issues but Colston was nicked up some last year.

I hope I'm wrong but I see Colston maybe having a solid season this year and then fading into WR2 status as Meacham moves into the WR1 role.

 

[Dancing Bear]

I'd be curious to see of all you "Busts" out there, how many are predicting "Bust" for Reggie Bush too.

If you are not, then IMHO you are being highly hypocritical.

Colston sustains the same level of performance over all 16 games.

 

[paydrt]

Brees uses Colston like he used Gates, just a different team, or to put it as different way Colston will put up similar numbers to whats Gates numbers were with Brees throwing to him.

 

[rzrback77]

with the departure of Horn, I expect Colston to stay the same or take a small step forward. I know the saints drafted meachem, but rookie WRs rarely produce well.

well, except for Colston...