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Will Doug Martin win Rushing tittle? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter T.Rex
- Start date
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
This is more so evidence of how injury-riddled and talent-poor the RB position is in 2015, rather than how good Martin is. Kind of embarrassing, actually, that a good RB (not great) splitting carries on a rebuilding team might win the rushing title.
Wrigley
Footballguy
Just think what he would be doing if he didn't split carries.
Tampa did a great job screwing the pooch here
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Don't think so. He's good, and could put up great numbers with a full workload. But he's not a great RB.
montana_grizzly_bears
Footballguy
Even if ADP was healthy, heading towards lowest rushing total for a RB since Priest Holmes in 2001 when he ran for 1555 yards.
Seriously? He leads the league in YAC, broken tackles, 20+ yard runs, YPC (players with at least 150 carries), is second in rushing yards (9 yards back) & 2nd in yards from scrimmage (among RBs).
Yeah, he's only good. According to your logic, ADP is also "only good," as well, since he leads Martin by just 9 rushing yards, and 10 YFS, but is behind him in all the other categories.
It's a different league now; the passing game is more emphasized. Only 2 QBs threw for over 4000 yards in 2001. This year there will probably be 10 QBs with 4000+, maybe as many as 15. There were 10 RBs with 300+ carries in 2001; this year there MIGHT be 1 (2 if Martin gets 22+ carries each game).
The league is different now then it once was; that doesn't make Martin (or ADP) less of a RB; it just means the game has changed.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
ADP is aging and having a down year compared to his old norm, but still flashes his HOF-level ability.
Martin is having a great year, but I don't really care about the advanced metrics. Jonathan Stewart has looked great a few different seasons using those types of metrics earlier in his career, and I'm sure there are plenty more example. Lesser talents outproduce greater talents over a limited sample-size all the time. So Martin being at the top of the league this year doesn't really matter to me if you're measuring who is a great NFL RB (separate from fantasy production).
Martin is not a great RB, period. There are only a couple right now anyways, if you ignore the old guys that are being phased out due to age and injury, and losing effectiveness--the only great or potentially great RB's I see in the league right now are Bell and Gurley.
Its a thin line between great production and great talent, I get that. Not everyone's going to agree. But Martin isn't a great RB in my opinion--if he keeps this up for the rest of his career and shows that the slump he went through for a while was an anomaly, maybe I'd change my mind. But he doesn't pass the eye test like the guys I named do right now, either. Its not just about production, to me.
So, the stats don't matter, just your opinion?
You're entitled to your opinion, but the facts (and that's what the stats are) disagree. And production is what determines greatness, not talent or passing an "eye test". Christine Michael passed many people's "eye test, and he has been hyped as super-talented, but you can't call him great because he hasn't produced.
That being said, I think it's important to clarify that calling Martin a great RB is on context. As you note, there are only a few great RBs right now: I fail to see how Martin isn't one of the top RBs right now in the NFL. So he's "great" when compared to his peers. I don't think anyone would argue that he is in the class of LT, Edge, Faulk, ADP in his prime, Emmitt, Walter, etc.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Show you just how random this thing is. Heck he was buried by most "experts."
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Uhh yes, when we're talking about who is and isn't a great RB, its all about our opinions. Which is fine. I don't think numbers tell the whole story.
Its all about how loosely we choose to use the phrase "great". Its all relative to me--Let's use an extreme example to demonstrate what I mean:
If there are no elite RB's in the NFL in the next couple years (lets say, in this hypothetical, that ADP declines further, Bell is never the same, and Gurley never puts it all together beyond the flashes we saw this year, while no one else special comes along or develops), that's how I'll see it. In that scenario, there are no great RB's in the NFL. But it sounds like you would take the top few rushers, and due to their production in comparison to their peers, during that timeline, those guys would by default be the current "great RB's" of the NFL, just by virtue of being at the top.
We just disagree on that. I wouldn't say that. Its a technicality really because a guy you'd call great, I'd call a good RB who produces great numbers. Especially in terms of fantasy, there have been a ton of great fantasy RB's that I didn't consider great real life RB's, and I'm sure you'd agree with that.
Just a personal preference.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
He's on pace for 321 total touches. That's plenty and keeps him from getting worn down. Do people really want to see him get 400 touches a season and break down after a couple years?
An insane amount of RBs have gone down hurt this year. "Leading the league" isn't what it would be in other years. Martin has been very inconsistent during his career. Does he flash talent occasionally? Yes. However, people still have good reason to be skeptical on him.
He has a higher YPC than every rushing-yardage leader over the past 5 years.
Only 5 RBs over the past 5 years with over 200 carries have had a higher YPC than his 5.1 this year.
No rushing leader over the past 5 years has a longer rush than his 84 yarder this year.
Only 5 RBs over the past 5 years have more 20+ yard runs than he does this year (and he has two more games to play still).
His rushing totals may benefit from the fact that other RBs have gotten hurt his year, but his per touch numbers match up with the elite RBs from other recent seasons.
If he was getting 20 rushes/game (as almost all the recent rushing leaders have), then his yardage numbers would be even higher.
Only 5 RBs over the past 5 years with over 200 carries have had a higher YPC than his 5.1 this year.
No rushing leader over the past 5 years has a longer rush than his 84 yarder this year.
Only 5 RBs over the past 5 years have more 20+ yard runs than he does this year (and he has two more games to play still).
His rushing totals may benefit from the fact that other RBs have gotten hurt his year, but his per touch numbers match up with the elite RBs from other recent seasons.
If he was getting 20 rushes/game (as almost all the recent rushing leaders have), then his yardage numbers would be even higher.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
And his efficiency numbers would almost certainly be lower. Its a trade off.
What are you basing this on? Because the numbers don't support this take.
And his efficiency numbers would almost certainly be lower. Its a trade off.
To get 300 carries, a RB has to average 19 carries/game over a 16 game season. Martin has had 7 games where he has had 19 or more rushes this year. In those games, he averaged 5.3 YPC.
Again, Martin's per/touch numbers are on-par with the top RBs of recent years; he isn't getting the compiler numbers, but the stats indicate that if he were, he would still be putting up great numbers.
And his efficiency numbers would almost certainly be lower. Its a trade off.
To get 300 carries, a RB has to average 19 carries/game over a 16 game season. Martin has had 7 games where he has had 19 or more rushes this year. In those games, he averaged 5.3 YPC.
Again, Martin's per/touch numbers are on-par with the top RBs of recent years; he isn't getting the compiler numbers, but the stats indicate that if he were, he would still be putting up great numbers.
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he's just reaching at this point. If his theory is that Martin has to do it longer, then I can get on board with that. But he was certainly great this year. One of the top three backs in all of football.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I agree, he had a great season. But there are a ton of guys who have had great seasons that I wouldn't consider great RB's.
i.understand what you're saying. Cam Newton is not a great quarterback but he's had a great season. A few more like it, and they will both be great.
He has had a good/great year. However, you can't just project additional carries at the same ypc because additional carries come with other factors (e.g., more wear and tear, risk of minor/major injury, etc.). It's just amazing how the discourse has changed on this guy over the course of 1 season. Last year he was considered one step above hot garbage. Let's see him string a couple of decent seasons together before we consider him in the ranks of the ADPs of the world.
well, his rookie season was fantastic. He battled injuries the next two. This was just a return to how he looked in 2012. But he does need to repeat next year before people will be convinced.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
It's crazy how fast people are to completely bury a player they feel has "burned them". Martin underperformed after his big breakout and it's almost personal in how much people hate him. It almost feels like every year there is a trendy pick that gets their ADP hyper inflated and then when they cant possibly live up to expectations everyone wants to pile on and write them off. Ryan Matthews, Lamar Miller, Jeremy Hill even Arian Foster come to mind. It will probably be David Johnson next year. It's no surprise to me that Martin went from "next big thing" to people dismissing his talent so quickly.
You also can't just say "with more carries, his YPC would drop." (especially since the facts contradict that). You also can't just say "he's only close to a rushing title b/c other guys got hurt," b/c all his stats except # of carries are comparable with the recent top RBs. He's had 2 great seasons out of 4; he was hurt during the 2 bad seasons; healthy during the 2 great ones. What he has to do is stay healthy.
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The General
Footballguy
Little fella has been frustrating to have this year because it feels like every game is going to be huge then second half he gets 4 carries.
Not been injured, been decent in pretty much every game after a bit of a slow start and everyone drafted him around the 60th pick or later so hard to complain.
Not been injured, been decent in pretty much every game after a bit of a slow start and everyone drafted him around the 60th pick or later so hard to complain.
Hard to see Chicago's offense running away with this one, especially with a gimpy A. Jeffrey.
You'd THINK D. Martin will be getting carries from start to finish.
First time seeing him live was last Thursday's game. The guy looks terrific.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Guy is an easy top 5 RB in dynasty.
Anyone that says hes average . Tell me how many backs have put up close to 1500 rushing yards in the last 4seasons. Doug is working on his 2nd. It's not like he's been on a Peyton Manning ran team either. Played with several QBs and Coordinators on a team in full rebuild. He's had an uphill battle.
When he's healthy he's clearly a very talented Back. I've seen him a couple times this year and outside of Gurley he's been the most impressive back I've seen.
Im excited to see if he breaks 1500 rushing yards.
Anyone that says hes average . Tell me how many backs have put up close to 1500 rushing yards in the last 4seasons. Doug is working on his 2nd. It's not like he's been on a Peyton Manning ran team either. Played with several QBs and Coordinators on a team in full rebuild. He's had an uphill battle.
When he's healthy he's clearly a very talented Back. I've seen him a couple times this year and outside of Gurley he's been the most impressive back I've seen.
Im excited to see if he breaks 1500 rushing yards.
The General
Footballguy
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
All of this, plus Martin's personal goal appears to see the stars aligning. Yards are nice, TD's would be a topper.T.Rex said:
MaxThreshold
Footballguy
Anyone think the Bears see the comments by Lovie and do everything they can to prevent that? Why would Lovie say that and give his opponent bulletin board material?
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Tau837
Footballguy
Saying with more carries his YPC would drop is a speculative statement about something that has not happened. There are no facts that can contradict it. The fact that he had several games with 19 or more carries and performed well does not equate to proof that if he had 19 or more carries in more games that he would have performed similarly well.
He is on pace for 293 carries anyway, so debating how much different his numbers would look if he was on pace for 300 carries seems a bit silly. If we were discussing a larger increase, like 350 carries, I absolutely believe his ypc would be lower if he was getting that many more carries. But I can't prove it, nor can you disprove it.
Sating "with more carries, his YPC will drop" IS NOT a speculative statement; it is a definitive statement. Saying "with mor carries, his YPC MIGHT drop" (or should drop, or could drop,etc) would be a speculative statement. That being said, since he has 2 seasons with 300+ touches, and a track record of doing well in games with heavy touches, there's more reason to agree with the speculative statement that he could continue to do well with more touches than to believe the opposite.Saying with more carries his YPC would drop is a speculative statement about something that has not happened. There are no facts that can contradict it. The fact that he had several games with 19 or more carries and performed well does not equate to proof that if he had 19 or more carries in more games that he would have performed similarly well.
He is on pace for 293 carries anyway, so debating how much different his numbers would look if he was on pace for 300 carries seems a bit silly. If we were discussing a larger increase, like 350 carries, I absolutely believe his ypc would be lower if he was getting that many more carries. But I can't prove it, nor can you disprove it.
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Tau837
Footballguy
You responded to bucsbaby and created a statement that he didn't make: "with more carries, his YPC would drop." Now you have repeated that as "with more carries, his YPC will drop" and gone on to say the word 'will' is wrong. The thing is, no one but you made these definitive statements that you are so anxious to parse and refute.Sating "with more carries, his YPC will drop" IS NOT a speculative statement; it is a definitive statement. Saying "with mor carries, his YPC MIGHT drop" (or should drop, or could drop,etc) would be a speculative statement. That being said, since he has 2 seasons with 300+ touches, and a track record of doing well in games with heavy touches, there's more reason to agree with the speculative statement that he could continue to do well with more touches than to believe the opposite.Saying with more carries his YPC would drop is a speculative statement about something that has not happened. There are no facts that can contradict it. The fact that he had several games with 19 or more carries and performed well does not equate to proof that if he had 19 or more carries in more games that he would have performed similarly well.
He is on pace for 293 carries anyway, so debating how much different his numbers would look if he was on pace for 300 carries seems a bit silly. If we were discussing a larger increase, like 350 carries, I absolutely believe his ypc would be lower if he was getting that many more carries. But I can't prove it, nor can you disprove it.
You also responded to your own strawman to say that the facts contradict it, which is wrong, as I pointed out above.
You make a lot of good points at times, but sometimes you undermine yourself with silly arguments like this one.
Im not sure whar you're getting at. I never posted that bucsbaby said anything about Martin's YPC. He mentioned in this PUBLIC thread that with more carries, other factors come into play. I noted two points that had been made by other posters in this thread. If you cant say "give him more carries at his current YPC," then you also can't make those other statements. Then YOU stated that saying his YPC would drop with more carries is a speculative statment; I pointed out it isn't because, well, it isn't.Just Win Baby said:You responded to bucsbaby and created a statement that he didn't make: "with more carries, his YPC would drop." Now you have repeated that as "with more carries, his YPC will drop" and gone on to say the word 'will' is wrong. The thing is, no one but you made these definitive statements that you are so anxious to parse and refute.Bayhawks said:Sating "with more carries, his YPC will drop" IS NOT a speculative statement; it is a definitive statement. Saying "with mor carries, his YPC MIGHT drop" (or should drop, or could drop,etc) would be a speculative statement. That being said, since he has 2 seasons with 300+ touches, and a track record of doing well in games with heavy touches, there's more reason to agree with the speculative statement that he could continue to do well with more touches than to believe the opposite.Just Win Baby said:Saying with more carries his YPC would drop is a speculative statement about something that has not happened. There are no facts that can contradict it. The fact that he had several games with 19 or more carries and performed well does not equate to proof that if he had 19 or more carries in more games that he would have performed similarly well.
He is on pace for 293 carries anyway, so debating how much different his numbers would look if he was on pace for 300 carries seems a bit silly. If we were discussing a larger increase, like 350 carries, I absolutely believe his ypc would be lower if he was getting that many more carries. But I can't prove it, nor can you disprove it.
You also responded to your own strawman to say that the facts contradict it, which is wrong, as I pointed out above.
You make a lot of good points at times, but sometimes you undermine yourself with silly arguments like this one.
I'm arguing no strawman, other posts discussed the YPC issue & I never suggested it was bucsbaby who did so. No strawman, merely a discussion of points made elsewhere in the thread.
YOU made the speculative comment, I argued the speculative part of it, then gave reasons why I would disagree with the ACTUAL speculative argument that his YPC MIGHT drop with more carries. Again, debating the point YOU introduced, not a strawman.
Doesn't really matter to me if you feel I'm undermining myself, but you've taken my posts out of context.
Im not sure whar you're getting at. I never posted that bucsbaby said anything about Martin's YPC. He mentioned in this PUBLIC thread that with more carries, other factors come into play. I noted two points that had been made by other posters in this thread. If you cant say "give him more carries at his current YPC," then you also can't make those other statements. Then YOU stated that saying his YPC would drop with more carries is a speculative statment; I pointed out it isn't because, well, it isn't.Just Win Baby said:You responded to bucsbaby and created a statement that he didn't make: "with more carries, his YPC would drop." Now you have repeated that as "with more carries, his YPC will drop" and gone on to say the word 'will' is wrong. The thing is, no one but you made these definitive statements that you are so anxious to parse and refute.Bayhawks said:Sating "with more carries, his YPC will drop" IS NOT a speculative statement; it is a definitive statement. Saying "with mor carries, his YPC MIGHT drop" (or should drop, or could drop,etc) would be a speculative statement. That being said, since he has 2 seasons with 300+ touches, and a track record of doing well in games with heavy touches, there's more reason to agree with the speculative statement that he could continue to do well with more touches than to believe the opposite.Just Win Baby said:Saying with more carries his YPC would drop is a speculative statement about something that has not happened. There are no facts that can contradict it. The fact that he had several games with 19 or more carries and performed well does not equate to proof that if he had 19 or more carries in more games that he would have performed similarly well.
He is on pace for 293 carries anyway, so debating how much different his numbers would look if he was on pace for 300 carries seems a bit silly. If we were discussing a larger increase, like 350 carries, I absolutely believe his ypc would be lower if he was getting that many more carries. But I can't prove it, nor can you disprove it.
You also responded to your own strawman to say that the facts contradict it, which is wrong, as I pointed out above.
You make a lot of good points at times, but sometimes you undermine yourself with silly arguments like this one.
I'm arguing no strawman, other posts discussed the YPC issue & I never suggested it was bucsbaby who did so. No strawman, merely a discussion of points made elsewhere in the thread.
YOU made the speculative comment, I argued the speculative part of it, then gave reasons why I would disagree with the ACTUAL speculative argument that his YPC MIGHT drop with more carries. Again, debating the point YOU introduced, not a strawman.
Doesn't really matter to me if you feel I'm undermining myself, but you've taken my posts out of context.
Pretty sure Peterson has him there too.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Tough crowd. The hampster is back and will finish #2 rb in the league with question marks at qb, coach and oline. Strong showing this year.
