Will Elliott disappoint / when should you buy young dynasty RBs? (1 Viewer)

[matttyl]

Which was Emmitt better at; running behind the best O-line in NFL history, playing until he was 40 just to pass Barry's numbers, or slaughtering the English language every time he opens his mouth?

I don't always like your posts, but when I do, it's because you make multiple good points back to back like this.

 

[Borden]

This is a pretty simplistic way of looking at it.  RB2 is still behind ~10 WRs and Gronk in most dynasty rankings so there is plenty of room to move up.  That's not even to mention that value does not have to be tied solely to how many people they pass in the rankings.  OBJ is #1 overall right now so according to what your saying his value can't go up at all, but if he goes for 2000yds and 20 TDs this year it will rise massively, even though he didn't actually move in the rankings at all.

For those baffled by the idea that Julio would be traded for Elliot right now, consider that unless Elliot has a total disaster of a year Julio will probably barely be a starting point to talks about getting Elliot next year.  These guy's value peaks heading into year 2 or 3, not year 1 unless they're just really bad or suffer a major injury.

The idea that you can just wait a year to make sure he's good and then buy him for basically the same value at this time next year is, simply put, wrong according to the history of these kind of players.  We have 15 years of recent history telling us that.  Every one of these top 5 NFL picks at RB in that time span was more expensive to acquire in year 2 than year 1, often significantly more.

I get what you're saying. You make solid points.

The reason I tried to just stick with the RB rankings is because when you start to mix in WRs things become muddied with different philosophies and stances on value. 

You also went to the extreme (with the OBJ example) which technically is true but is on the far end of the scale. Based on the most probable out comes, breaking records is not the most likely. Unfortunately, when looking back over the last decade of RBs take in the top 5... Blah blah blah. I've said this already. 

I think the idea isn't "Oh just wait a year and get him cheaper. Simple." Nothing is that simple. A reasonable situation is Zeke finishes as the RB4. The Cowboys spell Elliot with DMC and Alf (don't run him into the ground) and Gurley, Bell and a random (seems like there's always a random in the top 5) finish ahead of him. Still an excellent rookie year but it's not the record setting number that almost seems to be the expectation. So this time next offseason, there's still Gurley and Bell plus the new rookies that are coming in. 

To me, this is a 100% everyone is kind of right in their opinions and it's a reasonable expectation. So this time year, Elliot might not cost the full price of the RB1. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think the idea isn't "Oh just wait a year and get him cheaper. Simple." Nothing is that simple. A reasonable situation is Zeke finishes as the RB4. The Cowboys spell Elliot with DMC and Alf (don't run him into the ground) and Gurley, Bell and a random (seems like there's always a random in the top 5) finish ahead of him. Still an excellent rookie year but it's not the record setting number that almost seems to be the expectation. So this time next offseason, there's still Gurley and Bell plus the new rookies that are coming in. 

To me, this is a 100% everyone is kind of right in their opinions and it's a reasonable expectation. So this time year, Elliot might not cost the full price of the RB1. 

I think this is where we disagree.

Elliot doesn't need to break records to see a major increase in value.  If Elliot finishes as RB4 this year then his value at this point next season will make what he's going for this year look like nothing.  Julio wouldn't even begin to get the job done in trade talks.

Richardson finished as RB9 his rookie season and he was virtually untouchable the following year.  Much more expensive than he was entering his rookie year (which was similar to what Elliot costs right now).  It would have taken Peterson and a top 5 WR to land him entering year 2, and again that's after a RB9 finish as a rookie.

 

[Borden]

I think this is where we disagree.

Elliot doesn't need to break records to see a major increase in value.  If Elliot finishes as RB4 this year then his value at this point next season will make what he's going for this year look like nothing.  Julio wouldn't even begin to get the job done in trade talks.

Richardson finished as RB9 his rookie season and he was virtually untouchable the following year.  Much more expensive than he was entering his rookie year (which was similar to what Elliot costs right now).  It would have taken Peterson and a top 5 WR to land him entering year 2, and again that's after a RB9 finish as a rookie.

Okay. I'm onboard with you now. I don't agree with the value (disregarding the fact of hindsight) of what was being asked. My opinion of "value" is obviously skewed though.

 

[humpback]

I think this is where we disagree.

Elliot doesn't need to break records to see a major increase in value.  If Elliot finishes as RB4 this year then his value at this point next season will make what he's going for this year look like nothing.  Julio wouldn't even begin to get the job done in trade talks.

Richardson finished as RB9 his rookie season and he was virtually untouchable the following year.  Much more expensive than he was entering his rookie year (which was similar to what Elliot costs right now).  It would have taken Peterson and a top 5 WR to land him entering year 2, and again that's after a RB9 finish as a rookie.

I think you're overstating things a bit.  Do you have any links with Richardson's ADP?

 

[mikmak8902]

There's one in a thread about GRonk +blah blah and blah. Are you crazy?  Yes, you do that deal. 

I have the other side of that one.  In my main dynasty league, I have Gronk and Olsen and someone is asking for Gronk for the #1 overall.  I'm actually inclined to do it as I have Olsen and Edelman and I need a starting RB.

 

[spider321]

I have the other side of that one.  In my main dynasty league, I have Gronk and Olsen and someone is asking for Gronk for the #1 overall.  I'm actually inclined to do it as I have Olsen and Edelman and I need a starting RB.

...and you're a Cowboys' fan.

 

[Dan Hindery]

I don't know about Zeke needing to break a lot of records to see his value increase. 

The last season the Cowboys had a top RB was 2014. Demarco Murray rushed for 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns. He caught 57 balls for another 416 yards.

Can Zeke simply be as good as Murray? Certainly not guaranteed. But let's also not act like this is some crazy, pie-in-the-sky type thinking to think it's possible in this offense.

Even with 50 fewer carries and 300 fewer rushing yards than Murray, Zeke's value increases if he puts up 1900 total yards, 13 touchdowns and catches 60 passes. 

Also worth noting that he won't turn 22 until next summer. So this time next year Zeke will be 21...

 

[mikmak8902]

...and you're a Cowboys' fan.

Yup ... I won't lie.  There's a big pull from the Dallas Fan side of me.  I probably should stay away as we can start two TE and one RB in this league.  I just would love to ONCE have a meaningful Cowboy on my team.  I probably won't pull the trigger.  The thing that gives me the biggest pause is Morris and pass pro.  McFadden will be the one on the outside looking in (i believe) but Morris is too good to ignore and why would they ride their new little toy into the ground.  I don't think Elliot breaks 300 touches this season but I think at the end of the year he will be the clear bellcow back.  Any move for Elliot should be thought of as a move for the future or a playoff run this season.

 

[Biabreakable]

As a Vikings fan who paid what it took to get Peterson as a rookie I think you should take the chance mikmak. I had done most of my trades for the pick prior to the NFL draft, so when Peterson fell to my favorite team, that is kind of like heaven.

Not sure your league specifics. If scarcity at TE is such that Gronk is greater value than the pick, then ask for some sweetener to get it done.

Or just keep beating them with Gronk and Olsen. That seems pretty good too.

 

[mikmak8902]

As a Vikings fan who paid what it took to get Peterson as a rookie I think you should take the chance mikmak. I had done most of my trades for the pick prior to the NFL draft, so when Peterson fell to my favorite team, that is kind of like heaven.

Not sure your league specifics. If scarcity at TE is such that Gronk is greater value than the pick, then ask for some sweetener to get it done.

Or just keep beating them with Gronk and Olsen. That seems pretty good too.

Yeah ... I've got some time to think it over.  As a Vikings fan, it has to feel pretty good to have Purple Jesus on your roster.

 

[Biabreakable]

While I think it is good to not allow homerism influence your decision making process. When a great player meets a great situation and also just happens to be with a team you follow more closely than others. Its perfect because I would rather have players I enjoy watching all other things being equal. Gronk gives a advantage that is hard for other players to match. Definitely a tough choice.

 

[DropKick]

I think this is where we disagree.

Elliot doesn't need to break records to see a major increase in value.  If Elliot finishes as RB4 this year then his value at this point next season will make what he's going for this year look like nothing.  Julio wouldn't even begin to get the job done in trade talks.

Richardson finished as RB9 his rookie season and he was virtually untouchable the following year.  Much more expensive than he was entering his rookie year (which was similar to what Elliot costs right now).  It would have taken Peterson and a top 5 WR to land him entering year 2, and again that's after a RB9 finish as a rookie.

Seems exaggerated to me...  He was OK as a rookie; 12 TDs is nice but he didn't crack 1,00 years and had a low YPC.  His value was probably bumped in PPR since he caught 50+ balls.  Peterson was 28 and coming off a 2,000 rushing yard season and had 40 receptions of his own with 13 TDs.

Zeke's value is very high right now and while it can rise some, he is almost unobtainable now.

I think there is a much bigger floor.  What if he isn't used in the passing game; struggles at pass protection, puts the ball on the ground, gets dinged up or has an off the field issue?   He could easily lose some luster with a mediocre season.

 

[Biabreakable]

I was very high on Richardson going into his second season. It was all rainbows and gumdrops matching Richardson with Norv Turner. I expected the Browns to run the ball a ton and Richardson being the sole recipient of most of it. Richardson showed he was a good receiver as well. I thought he was the second coming of Edgerrin James. 

Richardson did not play at all during training camp and only a little in preseason before they traded him away to the Colts. The Browns and Norv Turner threw the ball almost 700 times due to not having a RB (Lewis got injured in preseason) and this was perhaps the worst projections I have made in some time.

I still took it as a positive that the Colts would trade a 1st round pick for RIchardson, and paired with Luck my dreams of him becoming Edge seemed even closer. The Colts offensive line was not as good as Clevelands was and Richardson demonstrated that he did not have good enough vision to identify when there were holes for him to run through.

Richardson did what I saw him doing as a college prospect in that he made a lot of defenders miss. However he rarely progressed the ball much after making defenders miss, which made it kind of a useless ability.

What I had to learn all over again is that vision is a very important skill for a RB and being able to make defenders miss isn't the most important skill for a RB to have. It is very important I think. One of the main things I look for in a RB. But it doesn't matter as much as vision does.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

What I had to learn all over again is that vision is a very important skill for a RB and being able to make defenders miss isn't the most important skill for a RB to have. It is very important I think. One of the main things I look for in a RB. But it doesn't matter as much as vision does.

I couldn't agree more. Guys with great vision can literally walk their way to 3-4 yards with average blocking.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I stumbled upon an over/under rush yards for Zeke from Brugler from right after the draft.

I wonder if they have 'upped' these yardage and TD totals.

They seem attainable.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


Dane Brugler‏@dpbrugler


Some interesting regular season over/under bets (via Brovada)

RB Elliott rush yards:

900 RB Elliott total TDs: 7.5

DE Bosa total sacks: 5.5

 

[Biabreakable]

Seems like petty easy money to take the over on Elliot.

 

[Biabreakable]

FWIW 900 rushing yards is only 56.25 rushing yards/game.

 

[Eminence]

This instance is pretty simple:

1.) Ezekiel Elliot has all the moves.

2.) Dallas has a phenomenal O-line.

3.) Darren McFadden produced in Dallas last year.

Draft with confidence, handcuff McFadden.

 

[Tanner9919]

Dallas O-line is the great equalizer here.

D.Murray  looked like Eric Dickerson behind that line,  then went to Philly on a fat contract  and looked absolutely horrible, averaging 3.6 ypc , but yet Ryan Mathews avgd 5.0 behind the same offensive line..point being the Dallas Offensive line made a bust like Murray look all-world..so Zeke could be Trent Richardson and he'd STILL rush for 1300+ yards and 10+ td's..

You're betting that Zeke has even the slightest bit of juice..just enough 'pop'..and if he does you've got a ROY candidate and possible 1500+ yard RB on your hands..

D. Murray is a one hit wonder, he isnt anything special at the position.but he tore it up as the starter if even just for one season.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000667087/article/nfl-rookie-projections-will-ezekiel-elliott-live-up-to-the-hype


NFL rookie projections: Will Ezekiel Elliott live up to the hype?

• By Bucky Brooks
  
• NFL Media analyst
  
• Published: June 6, 2016 at 05:29 p.m.
  
• Updated: June 7, 2016 at 09:37 a.m
  

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys




No. 4 overall pick, Round 1, Ohio State

Best-case scenario: The rookie rusher helps the Cowboys return to the blue-collar formula that netted the NFC East crown in 2014. Playing behind the best offensive line in football, Elliott quickly emerges as one of most productive runners in the game on the way to making a push for the rushing title. Most importantly, he alleviates some of the pressure on Tony Romo to carry the offense, which results in a more balanced and dynamic attack in Dallas.

Worst-case scenario: Elliott fails to live up to the hype that preceded his arrival in Dallas as the top runner in the 2016 draft class. Although he picks up 1,000-plus rushing yards behind Dallas' massive offensive line, Elliott fails to add the explosive dimension that many expected based on his spectacular career at Ohio State. Even though the team benefits from the presence of a young "grinder" in the backfield, expectations for their top pick to play like a superstar from Day 1 fall short.

My projection: 250 carries, 1,300 yards, 10 touchdowns; 30 receptions, 250 yards and two scores.