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Will LJ play to his early 2nd round ADP? (1 Viewer)

B

bucsbaby

Footballguy
I see LJ going in the mid-2nd round in all the mock drafts i've been in. I don't think he will produce to that level. Do you?

Reasons:

1) Offensive Line

2) No passing game

3) Coming off of injury

Regarding point #3 LJ is the same age as Rudi iirc and both are coming off of injuries. No one is giving Rudi the time of day, but imo he plays in a better offense than LJ does in KC. I'm not saying Rudi will be better than LJ, just citing some similar themes that make me wary of LJ at 2.05ish

 
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bucsbaby said:
I see LJ going in the mid-2nd round in all the mock drafts i've been in. I don't think he will produce to that level. Do you?Reasons:1) Offensive Line2) No passing game3) Coming off of injuryRegarding point #3 LJ is the same age as Rudi iirc and both are coming off of injuries. No one is giving Rudi the time of day, but imo he plays in a better offense than LJ does in KC. I'm not saying Rudi will be better than LJ, just citing some similar themes that make me wary of LJ at 2.05ish
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I think he outplays his ADP this year. I think the O-line is slighlty better and most of all I think he is healthy and feels like he has something to prove, that little extra fire.
 
One thing everybody forgets is his was a holdout last yr and misses all of camp .And he wasn't in shape when he got there.

 
I'll have to check some of my offseason posts but I calc'd he was projected to finish top 7-8 last year despite his terrible QB, terrible line, terrible ypc and terrible start. His qb s/b a little better, line s/b better which will result in the ypc being better and even if they aren't he'll be top 10 based on touch's alone. Last year he got hurt when he was reaching the juicy part of his schedule (most knew he'd have a tough start).

He's a steal in the early 2nd.

 
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Yes. There are probably 8-10 backs with more value IMO. That doesn't mean that LJ couldn't have a resurgence and finish higher than some of these players (he definately has the talent), but most would agree that his better days are behind him due to team issues.

Some of the players higher than him:

LT

ADP

Addia

Westbook

SJAX

Portis

Barber

Lynch

Grant

Personally I rank him above Gore but just below Grant b/c Grant has a better situation in GB and is finally signed.

LJ isn't a bad pick in the 2nd round though.

 
so, the consensus is LJ is a low #1/top end #2 RB in a 10-team dynasty league? who is the handcuff right now for LJ? thx!

 
bucsbaby said:
3) Coming off of injuryRegarding point #3 LJ is the same age as Rudi iirc and both are coming off of injuries. No one is giving Rudi the time of day, but imo he plays in a better offense than LJ does in KC. I'm not saying Rudi will be better than LJ, just citing some similar themes that make me wary of LJ at 2.05ish
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GUYS, GUYS, GUYS! Are we talking about undervalued here? I would not mind starting LJ & Rudi this year if that meant I get a couple top 10 WRs!
 
Hammerage said:
bucsbaby said:
I see LJ going in the mid-2nd round in all the mock drafts i've been in. I don't think he will produce to that level. Do you?Reasons:1) Offensive Line2) No passing game3) Coming off of injuryRegarding point #3 LJ is the same age as Rudi iirc and both are coming off of injuries. No one is giving Rudi the time of day, but imo he plays in a better offense than LJ does in KC. I'm not saying Rudi will be better than LJ, just citing some similar themes that make me wary of LJ at 2.05ish
Click to expand...
I think he outplays his ADP this year. I think the O-line is slighlty better and most of all I think he is healthy and feels like he has something to prove, that little extra fire.
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Do most people feel that his o-line is actually that much improved? I think the FFIndex mag has the KC O-line ranked dead last? Also where have improvements come in the form of WR or QBs? He might have fire and have something to prove, but if he has no blocking - hard to believe he'll rack up a ton of yards and points this year?
 
I guess it's not like there is no precedent. Ricky played well his first two years in Miami with a crap OLine in front of him.

 
seems to be a bit of confusion between "value" and "projected finish" in this thread.

Addai should go higher than LJ if you (like me) believe he will have a better fantasy season than LJ.

But that doesn't mean Addai is better value than LJ.

that being said, I'll gladly grab LJ anywhere in the 2nd round.

 
Jason Wood said:
bucsbaby said:
do you guys agree that addai has more value than LJ though?
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More value? Not necessarily. Addai is a consensus top 5 pick.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: Exactly and barring injury, that's most likely where he'll finish. LJ on the other hand is going in the mid 2nd and has the potential to finish in the top 5. As bad as things were in KC last year he was on pace for a top 10 finish. LJ is more likely to outperform his draft position that addai is and there is the value.
 
LJ may not produce sick amounts of value as an early 2nd round pick, but IMO he is one of the safer bets at the RB position to out produce his draft position. I am targeting LJ in the 2nd in every league I play in. I'm particularly eying the Portis/LJ combo.

 
eric rymer said:
Jason Wood said:
bucsbaby said:
do you guys agree that addai has more value than LJ though?
Click to expand...
More value? Not necessarily. Addai is a consensus top 5 pick.
Click to expand...
:mellow: Exactly and barring injury, that's most likely where he'll finish. LJ on the other hand is going in the mid 2nd and has the potential to finish in the top 5. As bad as things were in KC last year he was on pace for a top 10 finish. LJ is more likely to outperform his draft position that addai is and there is the value.
Click to expand...
His was projected to be injured last year though after touching the ball 457 times in '06. Backs who put up those types of carries don't come back well unless they are named Eric Dickerson or Emmit Smith.
 
You guys like him in the second round, but do you like him as your RB#1? I'm looking at LJ in the top of the second following a Randy Moss late first rounder. The crop of RB's at the top of the second are great second rounders, but make me nervous as my #1 at the position. I think I like LJ's potential better than McGahee and Jones-Drew in that scenario.

 
I have the potential to keep LT/LJ in a 6 pts all td league (includes passing). I can't decide whether to go LT/LJ or LT/Romo. Romo was the #2 scorer in our league last year. I don't know what to expect from LJ. He will get the carries which you can't say about alot of other guys.

 
**** Vermeil said:
You guys like him in the second round, but do you like him as your RB#1? I'm looking at LJ in the top of the second following a Randy Moss late first rounder. The crop of RB's at the top of the second are great second rounders, but make me nervous as my #1 at the position. I think I like LJ's potential better than McGahee and Jones-Drew in that scenario.
Click to expand...
You coached him ****; you tell us. :no:
 
Smizzy said:
One thing everybody forgets is his was a holdout last yr and misses all of camp .And he wasn't in shape when he got there.
Click to expand...
He also went against some pretty stout defenses in his few games he played last year. I recall thinking last year that I saw no way he could get off to a good start with his holdout and schedule but that he would reward his owners in the second half if they could stay in contention but that of course assumed he would stay healthy.One thing that I'm a little surprised most people are not making a bigger deal of is new OC Chan Gailey. Chan has not only got the most out of his RB's but in 6 years as OC of HC his feature back logged over 300 carries every year. Take a look as what he got from his backs as OC:Jerome Bettis- Had his two highest rushing totals of his career in his two years under Gailey. Lamar Smith- OK, I know he was a very average player which to me makes his production under Gailey even more impressive. Gailey got a 1,000 year season out of him and than fell 32 yards shy of another. Despite being a medicore back Gailey still called his number over 300 times. Bottom line is, like with Bettis, Smith enjoyed his two most productive seasons under Gailey's tutelage.As a head coach:Emmit Smith- By the time Chan got to Dallas Emmit was showing wear and tear and the OL was not so dominant. Still he not only got back to back 1300+ yards seasons of Emmit but I think it's noteworthy that from the time frame of 1996-2004 Emmit enjoyed his best two season under Gailey.The only negative I found in my examination of backs under Gailey is they don't usually catch the ball a whole lot so in PPR leagues I do expect LJ's per game receptions to take a hit.
 
menobrown said:
Smizzy said:
One thing everybody forgets is his was a holdout last yr and misses all of camp .And he wasn't in shape when he got there.
Click to expand...
He also went against some pretty stout defenses in his few games he played last year. I recall thinking last year that I saw no way he could get off to a good start with his holdout and schedule but that he would reward his owners in the second half if they could stay in contention but that of course assumed he would stay healthy.One thing that I'm a little surprised most people are not making a bigger deal of is new OC Chan Gailey. Chan has not only got the most out of his RB's but in 6 years as OC of HC his feature back logged over 300 carries every year. Take a look as what he got from his backs as OC:Jerome Bettis- Had his two highest rushing totals of his career in his two years under Gailey. Lamar Smith- OK, I know he was a very average player which to me makes his production under Gailey even more impressive. Gailey got a 1,000 year season out of him and than fell 32 yards shy of another. Despite being a medicore back Gailey still called his number over 300 times. Bottom line is, like with Bettis, Smith enjoyed his two most productive seasons under Gailey's tutelage.As a head coach:Emmit Smith- By the time Chan got to Dallas Emmit was showing wear and tear and the OL was not so dominant. Still he not only got back to back 1300+ yards seasons of Emmit but I think it's noteworthy that from the time frame of 1996-2004 Emmit enjoyed his best two season under Gailey.The only negative I found in my examination of backs under Gailey is they don't usually catch the ball a whole lot so in PPR leagues I do expect LJ's per game receptions to take a hit.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
 
Hammerage said:
bucsbaby said:
I see LJ going in the mid-2nd round in all the mock drafts i've been in. I don't think he will produce to that level. Do you?

Reasons:

1) Offensive Line

2) No passing game

3) Coming off of injury

Regarding point #3 LJ is the same age as Rudi iirc and both are coming off of injuries. No one is giving Rudi the time of day, but imo he plays in a better offense than LJ does in KC. I'm not saying Rudi will be better than LJ, just citing some similar themes that make me wary of LJ at 2.05ish
Click to expand...
I think he outplays his ADP this year. I think the O-line is slighlty better and most of all I think he is healthy and feels like he has something to prove, that little extra fire.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: reports are saying that he's looking great so far! He's been ripping of 20 yard runs and so on...I think he EASILY outplays his ADP...you can bank on him getting 300+ carries ..he IS the Chiefs offense...the team plays an easy schedule for what thats worth these days..and I agree,his O-line is going to be better than most people expect..

and he's a LOCK for double digit TDs...

 
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Hammerage said:
I think the O-line is slighlty better and most of all I think he is healthy and feels like he has something to prove, that little extra fire
Click to expand...
:mellow: That's what was missing. He'll be a 1500-yard guy with a fire in his belly.

 
baconisgood said:
eric rymer said:
Jason Wood said:
bucsbaby said:
do you guys agree that addai has more value than LJ though?
Click to expand...
More value? Not necessarily. Addai is a consensus top 5 pick.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: Exactly and barring injury, that's most likely where he'll finish. LJ on the other hand is going in the mid 2nd and has the potential to finish in the top 5. As bad as things were in KC last year he was on pace for a top 10 finish. LJ is more likely to outperform his draft position that addai is and there is the value.
Click to expand...
His was projected to be injured last year though after touching the ball 457 times in '06. Backs who put up those types of carries don't come back well unless they are named Eric Dickerson or Emmit Smith.
Click to expand...
That's actually untrue. There have been countless studies by Doug Drinen, David Yudkin, myself, Chase and some other sites (like Football Outsiders) which show that backs with high carries (pick your cutoff...400, 350, 300) don't suffer any kind of more pronounced propensity for injury or productivity dropoff as other high scoring backs.
 
Don't like him and won't touch him

He had all three attributes of RB's I want to stay away from

1) coming off of an injury

2) bad offense

3) team will not be playing with the lead alot

Stay away from Larry

 
He's fools gold at this point in his career.

In auction drafts, he's a prime suspect to throw out there and suck up somebody's cap dollars.

I know I will (be offering him up).

 
Andy Herron said:
He's fools gold at this point in his career.In auction drafts, he's a prime suspect to throw out there and suck up somebody's cap dollars.I know I will (be offering him up).
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He was on pace for a top ten finish last year.He's 28.He has an offensive coordinator and a head coach who both run the ball a lot.His ADP is running back #10 - last year's rb #10 had 1428 yards and 7 touchdowns. LJ played 8 games. He had 745 yards and 4 touchdowns. So...we're all in agreement last year he was having a terrible season. Worst case he gets hurt. The next worst scenario is he lives up to his draft position.
 
AnonymousBob said:
Andy Herron said:
He's fools gold at this point in his career.In auction drafts, he's a prime suspect to throw out there and suck up somebody's cap dollars.I know I will (be offering him up).
Click to expand...
He was on pace for a top ten finish last year.He's 28.He has an offensive coordinator and a head coach who both run the ball a lot.His ADP is running back #10 - last year's rb #10 had 1428 yards and 7 touchdowns. LJ played 8 games. He had 745 yards and 4 touchdowns. So...we're all in agreement last year he was having a terrible season. Worst case he gets hurt. The next worst scenario is he lives up to his draft position.
Click to expand...
Stop it, I like getting LJ as my RB2. :lmao:
 
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