Will Peyton Break the TD record? (1 Viewer)

[lbouchard]

Who the #### cares if these guys are or aren't stat whores?

 

[Bamac]

For what it's worth, there's actually some decent statistical evidence that Peyton does focus on passing TDs. I'm not going to do the legwork from my phone, but compare Peyton's short TD rate this season to his short TD rate in the playoffs (where he's presumably focused solely on winning). If you want to do some real work, compare his teams' short rushing TDs v. short passing TDs over the same period.

 

[Bamac]

Who the #### cares if these guys are or aren't stat whores?

I think it's an interesting question. Apologize for the thread hijack, but if you came looking for an answer to the OP's question, it's "yes".

 

[Adam Harstad]

Interesting stats on his 55 touchdown passes:

• 9 TD's from the 1 or 2 yard line
• 7 TD's on first and goal from inside the 5
• 27 TD's from inside the 10
• 27 TD's came on 1st down
• Only 3 TD's greater than 40 yards
• 9 TD's with a lead of 15 or more
• 3 TD's with a lead of 22 or more (none of these were early either)

I knew it was egregious but I didn't realize how bad until I went through the actual game logs. Poor Knowshon Moreno - he easily could have had 20+ touchdowns this year.

16.3% of Peyton's TDs came within 2 yards. League average is 12.1%.

49.0% of Peyton's TDs came within 10 yards. League average is 47.0%.

Peyton only threw 2 TDs with a 22 point lead. And yes, both were early. One came at the end of the 3rd, and Peyton never played another snap that game. Another was his last touchdown against Oakland, which came in the first half, and Peyton never played another snap that game.

Peyton threw a lot of touchdowns in a lot of different situations. In case you missed it, Peyton threw a lot of touchdowns this year.

 

[Adam Harstad]

For what it's worth, there's actually some decent statistical evidence that Peyton does focus on passing TDs. I'm not going to do the legwork from my phone, but compare Peyton's short TD rate this season to his short TD rate in the playoffs (where he's presumably focused solely on winning). If you want to do some real work, compare his teams' short rushing TDs v. short passing TDs over the same period.

11.2% of Peyton's regular season TDs have come from within 2 yards. 9.4% of Peyton's postseason TDs have come within 2 yards. Given the sample size involved (3 of 34), that's pretty close to a wash.

From 1998 to 2010 in the regular season, Indy had 39 passing TDs from 1-2 yards out compared to 91 rushing TDs. That's 30.0%. In the postseason, Indy had 3 passing TDs from 1-2 yards out compared to 8 rushing TDs. That's 27.3%. Again, given the samples involved, that's essentially a wash.

If your hypothesis is correct (that the only goal in the postseason is winning, and therefore the team will default to an optimal equilibrium), it suggests that Indy operated pretty close to an optimal equilibrium in the regular season, too.

 

[General Tso]

Interesting stats on his 55 touchdown passes:

• 9 TD's from the 1 or 2 yard line
• 7 TD's on first and goal from inside the 5
• 27 TD's from inside the 10
• 27 TD's came on 1st down
• Only 3 TD's greater than 40 yards
• 9 TD's with a lead of 15 or more
• 3 TD's with a lead of 22 or more (none of these were early either)

I knew it was egregious but I didn't realize how bad until I went through the actual game logs. Poor Knowshon Moreno - he easily could have had 20+ touchdowns this year.

16.3% of Peyton's TDs came within 2 yards. League average is 12.1%.

You do realize that this is a 35% increase over the league average, right? And you don't consider that statistically significant?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Interesting stats on his 55 touchdown passes:

• 9 TD's from the 1 or 2 yard line
• 7 TD's on first and goal from inside the 5
• 27 TD's from inside the 10
• 27 TD's came on 1st down
• Only 3 TD's greater than 40 yards
• 9 TD's with a lead of 15 or more
• 3 TD's with a lead of 22 or more (none of these were early either)

I knew it was egregious but I didn't realize how bad until I went through the actual game logs. Poor Knowshon Moreno - he easily could have had 20+ touchdowns this year.

16.3% of Peyton's TDs came within 2 yards. League average is 12.1%.

You do realize that this is a 35% increase over the league average, right? And you don't consider that statistically significant?

Not without calculating the standard deviation in the sample. The threshold for statistical significance is 95%, which basically means more than two standard deviations away from the mean. If the league average is 12.1%, and the standard deviation is +/- 3%, that will fail the test of statistical significance; in fact, based on that standard deviation, we would expect several players to be there every year simply due to random chance. If we flipped 100 coins 100 times each, the average for the entire sample would be 50% heads, but we'd still see some coins that came up heads 67 or 68 times (representing a similar 35% increase over the population mean). And it'd be wrong to assume that Peyton Manning was just a league-average passer, anyway. He's one of the best red-zone quarterbacks in league history, so we should expect him to have a higher percentage of red-zone TDs. He's the oldest QB in the league, and 2 years removed from spinal fusion surgery that reduced his arm strength, so we should expect a much lower percentage of deep touchdowns from him compared to league average. Peyton Manning had the lowest time to throw in the NFL this year, which is indicative of someone who throws a lot of short timing routes, and we should expect more short touchdowns from a guy who throws more short passes. Denver is arguably the best screen passing team in history, which means we'd expect to see more 1-step drops at the goal line.

Besides, look at the size of the numbers involved. On 55 touchdowns, based on the league average rate, we should expect 6.7 touchdowns coming from 2 yards or closer. We got 9. It's a difference of 2.3 touchdowns. That's a pretty small difference, and highly susceptible to sample noise. So, what, he got all stat-crazy at the 2-yard line and as a result scored two more touchdowns towards a record that he broke by five?

 

[Adam Harstad]

I've been digging more into this because I think it's honestly an interesting question. The "stat-padder" crowd does seem to have a legitimate gripe in that Denver is the only team in the league that passed more than it ran inside the opponent's 2 yard line. That stems almost entirely from a game against Tennessee, which accounted for more than a third of Denver's pass attempts as the Broncos called 7 passes vs. just 3 runs. Even without that game, Denver would be at 50/50 run pass, which would lead the league. I checked the numbers at 1 yard and at 3 yards to see if it was an endpoint issue, but it wasn't; Denver was consistently among the most pass-heavy goal-line teams from every distance.

At the same time, as I mentioned, it's wrong to assume that Peyton is an average passer and his numbers should trend towards the league average. Only Detroit scored on a higher percentage of its goal-to-go plays, which means what Denver was doing was working. It's harder for me to pull up stats by drive as opposed to by individual play, but I know that late in the season Denver was sporting an historically efficient red zone offense. The optimal ratio of runs to passes, assuming the goal is to maximize expected points, is going to vary from team to team. A team with Adrian Peterson should lean more to the run than a team with Willis McGahee. Given the spectacular results they achieved, it seems it would be difficult to argue that Denver was using a sub-optimal play distribution for their stated goal of maximizing points (as opposed to chasing records). Their play calling was certainly an outlier, though.

 

[Bamac]

I've been digging more into this because I think it's honestly an interesting question. The "stat-padder" crowd does seem to have a legitimate gripe in that Denver is the only team in the league that passed more than it ran inside the opponent's 2 yard line. That stems almost entirely from a game against Tennessee, which accounted for more than a third of Denver's pass attempts as the Broncos called 7 passes vs. just 3 runs. Even without that game, Denver would be at 50/50 run pass, which would lead the league. I checked the numbers at 1 yard and at 3 yards to see if it was an endpoint issue, but it wasn't; Denver was consistently among the most pass-heavy goal-line teams from every distance.

At the same time, as I mentioned, it's wrong to assume that Peyton is an average passer and his numbers should trend towards the league average. Only Detroit scored on a higher percentage of its goal-to-go plays, which means what Denver was doing was working. It's harder for me to pull up stats by drive as opposed to by individual play, but I know that late in the season Denver was sporting an historically efficient red zone offense. The optimal ratio of runs to passes, assuming the goal is to maximize expected points, is going to vary from team to team. A team with Adrian Peterson should lean more to the run than a team with Willis McGahee. Given the spectacular results they achieved, it seems it would be difficult to argue that Denver was using a sub-optimal play distribution for their stated goal of maximizing points (as opposed to chasing records). Their play calling was certainly an outlier, though.

 

[ghostguy123]

He probably threw more than other teams when inside the two because he is one of the greatest QBs of all time, and probably the best QB of all time with the short game. That, and the other option is handing the ball off to guys that aren't exactly great options.

If Adrian Peterson ran the ball every play when the Vikings were inside the 2 yard line, would we think he was stat padding?? I sure hope not considering the other option has to do with some crappy QB making decisions. This situation is pretty much just the reverse. They are running their best and most efficient plays to score points and..............win.

 

[cstu]

He probably threw more than other teams when inside the two because he is one of the greatest QBs of all time, and probably the best QB of all time with the short game. That, and the other option is handing the ball off to guys that aren't exactly great options.

If Adrian Peterson ran the ball every play when the Vikings were inside the 2 yard line, would we think he was stat padding?? I sure hope not considering the other option has to do with some crappy QB making decisions. This situation is pretty much just the reverse. They are running their best and most efficient plays to score points and..............win.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[Koya]

He probably threw more than other teams when inside the two because he is one of the greatest QBs of all time, and probably the best QB of all time with the short game. That, and the other option is handing the ball off to guys that aren't exactly great options.

If Adrian Peterson ran the ball every play when the Vikings were inside the 2 yard line, would we think he was stat padding?? I sure hope not considering the other option has to do with some crappy QB making decisions. This situation is pretty much just the reverse. They are running their best and most efficient plays to score points and..............win.

My thoughts exactly.

Totally. I've never been a huge manning fan (though I've owned him a ton in fantasy, mostly 2qb leagues), but the hating that's gone on recently has pushed me over to be more of a fan to be honest.

You are going to blame the best passing offense in history for passing rather than running inside the 2 yard line? That's just assinine. It's either shortsighted, or people are being utterly disingenuous. If that's their best chance to score, why wouldn't they pass? And with that offense, it's hard to argue with the outcome.

As Manning himself has said, the goal of the game is to score, and this team did it more than anyone else. Who the hell are internet minions to say they did it "wrong" when they did it more "right" than any team in history?

 

[Ghost Rider]

It's worth pointing out, too, that Broncos running backs had some critical fumbles inside the 5-yard line this year (Ball's against NYG, Hillman's against Indy). Who knows whether that was a factor or not, but why not let the QB having the best season ever throw it rather than risk one of the RBs coughing it up again.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

He probably threw more than other teams when inside the two because he is one of the greatest QBs of all time, and probably the best QB of all time with the short game. That, and the other option is handing the ball off to guys that aren't exactly great options.

If Adrian Peterson ran the ball every play when the Vikings were inside the 2 yard line, would we think he was stat padding?? I sure hope not considering the other option has to do with some crappy QB making decisions. This situation is pretty much just the reverse. They are running their best and most efficient plays to score points and..............win.

My thoughts exactly.

Totally. I've never been a huge manning fan (though I've owned him a ton in fantasy, mostly 2qb leagues), but the hating that's gone on recently has pushed me over to be more of a fan to be honest.

You are going to blame the best passing offense in history for passing rather than running inside the 2 yard line? That's just assinine. It's either shortsighted, or people are being utterly disingenuous. If that's their best chance to score, why wouldn't they pass? And with that offense, it's hard to argue with the outcome.

As Manning himself has said, the goal of the game is to score, and this team did it more than anyone else. Who the hell are internet minions to say they did it "wrong" when they did it more "right" than any team in history?

While also earning the #1 seed in their conference, a 1st rd bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs....

 

[Koya]

He probably threw more than other teams when inside the two because he is one of the greatest QBs of all time, and probably the best QB of all time with the short game. That, and the other option is handing the ball off to guys that aren't exactly great options.

If Adrian Peterson ran the ball every play when the Vikings were inside the 2 yard line, would we think he was stat padding?? I sure hope not considering the other option has to do with some crappy QB making decisions. This situation is pretty much just the reverse. They are running their best and most efficient plays to score points and..............win.

My thoughts exactly.

Totally. I've never been a huge manning fan (though I've owned him a ton in fantasy, mostly 2qb leagues), but the hating that's gone on recently has pushed me over to be more of a fan to be honest.

You are going to blame the best passing offense in history for passing rather than running inside the 2 yard line? That's just assinine. It's either shortsighted, or people are being utterly disingenuous. If that's their best chance to score, why wouldn't they pass? And with that offense, it's hard to argue with the outcome.

As Manning himself has said, the goal of the game is to score, and this team did it more than anyone else. Who the hell are internet minions to say they did it "wrong" when they did it more "right" than any team in history?

While also earning the #1 seed in their conference, a 1st rd bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs....

Just imagine if they played the game the right way and didn't pander only to stats over the goal of winning.

 

[moleculo]

Weird. the way folks are talking, you'd think that scoring TD's and willing football games were unrelated goals.

 

[Warrior]

He probably threw more than other teams when inside the two because he is one of the greatest QBs of all time, and probably the best QB of all time with the short game. That, and the other option is handing the ball off to guys that aren't exactly great options.

If Adrian Peterson ran the ball every play when the Vikings were inside the 2 yard line, would we think he was stat padding?? I sure hope not considering the other option has to do with some crappy QB making decisions. This situation is pretty much just the reverse. They are running their best and most efficient plays to score points and..............win.

My thoughts exactly.

Totally. I've never been a huge manning fan (though I've owned him a ton in fantasy, mostly 2qb leagues), but the hating that's gone on recently has pushed me over to be more of a fan to be honest.

You are going to blame the best passing offense in history for passing rather than running inside the 2 yard line? That's just assinine. It's either shortsighted, or people are being utterly disingenuous. If that's their best chance to score, why wouldn't they pass? And with that offense, it's hard to argue with the outcome.

As Manning himself has said, the goal of the game is to score, and this team did it more than anyone else. Who the hell are internet minions to say they did it "wrong" when they did it more "right" than any team in history?

While also earning the #1 seed in their conference, a 1st rd bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs....

Just imagine if they played the game the right way and didn't pander only to stats over the goal of winning.

Easy to imagine. Just open your eyes and take a look at reality

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Wins are a stat, so it's still stat-padding.

 

[jurb26]

Weird. the way folks are talking, you'd think that scoring TD's and willing football games were unrelated goals.

Weird that people think there's a need to defend it as well.

 

[General Tso]

Interesting stats on his 55 touchdown passes:

• 9 TD's from the 1 or 2 yard line
• 7 TD's on first and goal from inside the 5
• 27 TD's from inside the 10
• 27 TD's came on 1st down
• Only 3 TD's greater than 40 yards
• 9 TD's with a lead of 15 or more
• 3 TD's with a lead of 22 or more (none of these were early either)

I knew it was egregious but I didn't realize how bad until I went through the actual game logs. Poor Knowshon Moreno - he easily could have had 20+ touchdowns this year.

16.3% of Peyton's TDs came within 2 yards. League average is 12.1%.

You do realize that this is a 35% increase over the league average, right? And you don't consider that statistically significant?

Not without calculating the standard deviation in the sample. The threshold for statistical significance is 95%, which basically means more than two standard deviations away from the mean. If the league average is 12.1%, and the standard deviation is +/- 3%, that will fail the test of statistical significance; in fact, based on that standard deviation, we would expect several players to be there every year simply due to random chance. If we flipped 100 coins 100 times each, the average for the entire sample would be 50% heads, but we'd still see some coins that came up heads 67 or 68 times (representing a similar 35% increase over the population mean). And it'd be wrong to assume that Peyton Manning was just a league-average passer, anyway. He's one of the best red-zone quarterbacks in league history, so we should expect him to have a higher percentage of red-zone TDs. He's the oldest QB in the league, and 2 years removed from spinal fusion surgery that reduced his arm strength, so we should expect a much lower percentage of deep touchdowns from him compared to league average. Peyton Manning had the lowest time to throw in the NFL this year, which is indicative of someone who throws a lot of short timing routes, and we should expect more short touchdowns from a guy who throws more short passes. Denver is arguably the best screen passing team in history, which means we'd expect to see more 1-step drops at the goal line.

Besides, look at the size of the numbers involved. On 55 touchdowns, based on the league average rate, we should expect 6.7 touchdowns coming from 2 yards or closer. We got 9. It's a difference of 2.3 touchdowns. That's a pretty small difference, and highly susceptible to sample noise. So, what, he got all stat-crazy at the 2-yard line and as a result scored two more touchdowns towards a record that he broke by five?

I appreciate your thoughtful analysis - I really do. You are one of the few people in here that can have an intelligent discourse on the issue and I respect you for it. Here's my take on things, for what it's worth...I hate passing records. Hate em. Always have, always will. I hated it when Peyton went for the TD record the first time. I got in several brawls in here with Joe Bryant himself on the issue. I hated it just as much a few years later when Brady did it. It went against everything I'd ever wanted Brady to be known for - an unselfish leader who focused on nothing more than winning as a team. Football is a team game and in my opinion individual records are a joke. Especially a record like passing TD's which has a built-in bias since the QB can change plays at the line of scrimmage. It goes totally against the concept of team play.

I watched every snap of every Denver game this year. I said after three weeks, in this very thread, that Peyton Manning would break the record, because he wanted to and because he could. I actually guaranteed it, and even predicted the exact amount of touchdowns he wold get - 55. You can look it up. I've seen the data, and while I appreciate the perspective you have added to the discussion (particularly your analysis of his diminished arm strength leading to a lower percentage of long range TD's) - I know what I saw this year... And that was a man who was laser focused on getting that record back, with equal if not more fervor than Brady displayed in that stupid 2007 campaign. I predicted it, witnessed it, and then analyzed data that supports what I saw. Sorry, but if it looks like duck and quacks like a duck - it's a duck. Manning had a personal agenda this year and he achieved it. By and large it was done with minimal downside to the team. But don't tell that to Knowshon Moreno. How much of a life changing event would it have been if he had a 20 TD season this year? Even worse is the tone it sets for a team. Nobody is talking about the Denver Broncos right now. It's all about Peyton Manning. I was kind of glad when the Pats didn't win it in 2007 and I'll be equally glad this year when the Seahawks - the team - kicks Manning's ### in the Superbowl. I wish it were different, because he is an all time great and a real good guy. But it is what it is.

 

[Adam Harstad]

It's worth pointing out, too, that Broncos running backs had some critical fumbles inside the 5-yard line this year (Ball's against NYG, Hillman's against Indy). Who knows whether that was a factor or not, but why not let the QB having the best season ever throw it rather than risk one of the RBs coughing it up again.

Peyton Manning, on the other hand, had 40 TDs vs. 0 INTs in the red zone. Though he did have two sack/fumbles of his own.

 

[IHEARTFF]

lol @ general tso being so mad about this. Also, huge lol at thinking it was a detriment to the team goals in any way.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I appreciate your thoughtful analysis - I really do. You are one of the few people in here that can have an intelligent discourse on the issue and I respect you for it. Here's my take on things, for what it's worth...

I hate passing records. Hate em. Always have, always will. I hated it when Peyton went for the TD record the first time. I got in several brawls in here with Joe Bryant himself on the issue. I hated it just as much a few years later when Brady did it. It went against everything I'd ever wanted Brady to be known for - an unselfish leader who focused on nothing more than winning as a team. Football is a team game and in my opinion individual records are a joke. Especially a record like passing TD's which has a built-in bias since the QB can change plays at the line of scrimmage. It goes totally against the concept of team play.

I watched every snap of every Denver game this year. I said after three weeks, in this very thread, that Peyton Manning would break the record, because he wanted to and because he could. I actually guaranteed it, and even predicted the exact amount of touchdowns he wold get - 55. You can look it up. I've seen the data, and while I appreciate the perspective you have added to the discussion (particularly your analysis of his diminished arm strength leading to a lower percentage of long range TD's) - I know what I saw this year... And that was a man who was laser focused on getting that record back, with equal if not more fervor than Brady displayed in that stupid 2007 campaign. I predicted it, witnessed it, and then analyzed data that supports what I saw. Sorry, but if it looks like duck and quacks like a duck - it's a duck. Manning had a personal agenda this year and he achieved it. By and large it was done with minimal downside to the team. But don't tell that to Knowshon Moreno. How much of a life changing event would it have been if he had a 20 TD season this year? Even worse is the tone it sets for a team. Nobody is talking about the Denver Broncos right now. It's all about Peyton Manning. I was kind of glad when the Pats didn't win it in 2007 and I'll be equally glad this year when the Seahawks - the team - kicks Manning's ### in the Superbowl. I wish it were different, because he is an all time great and a real good guy. But it is what it is.

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I would agree that Manning had a laser focus on scoring touchdowns this year, but I'm not sure I would agree that he had a laser focus on scoring PASSING touchdowns in particular, at the expense of scoring a greater number of touchdowns by other methods. After all, that naked bootleg against the Cowboys certainly didn't help his passing touchdown total. Regardless, we're both speculating; neither of us is capable of knowing what is in a player's private thoughts, and nothing Peyton Manning could say would ever be compelling evidence one way or the other. We're left trying to read the tea leaves and analyzing tiny samples to try to understand a player's motivations.

Still, motivation-guessing aside, there are a few points where I'm not sure whether we agree or disagree, so if it's okay, I'd like to ask a few questions to help clarify.

1. Denver was the most efficient red zone and goal-to-go offense in the league. Do you think their play-calling in those ranges was sub-optimal? Do you think they would have scored even more touchdowns still if they had called more runs and fewer passes?

2. Knowshon Moreno was 4th in the league in rushing touchdowns, and 5th in the league in total touchdowns (3rd among RBs). Moreno was 5th in the league in yards from scrimmage (4th among RBs). Do you believe that playing with Peyton Manning had a positive or negative impact on these totals? If Denver had started Brock Osweiler this season, do you believe Moreno would have more or fewer touchdowns? Would he have gained more or fewer yards?

3. Knowshon Moreno, despite playing as the lead back in a timeshare, was 8th in the league in rushes inside the 5 yards line. Do you believe this number would have been higher or lower if he had played with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning? Do you believe Peyton Manning had a positive or negative effect on the number of snaps Knowshon Moreno played inside the red zone? Do you believe that, on the net, Knowshon Moreno received more or fewer opportunities to score because he played in an offense with Peyton Manning? Despite its pass-heavy nature, Denver ranked 5th in the NFL in total rush attempts inside the 5 yard line with 16, just one attempt behind the league lead (a 4-way tie at 17). With another quarterback under center, do you think Denver would have ranked higher or lower?

4. Knowshon Moreno's contract expires after the 2013 season, and he will be a free agent. Imagining a counterfactual where Moreno played with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning this year, do you believe Knowshon Moreno would draw more or less interest in free agency? Do you think he would command more or less money in his next contract?

5. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, do you believe that Knowshon Moreno regrets playing with Peyton Manning this season?

 

[lod01]

Manning is the biggest stat whore the game has ever seen. Favre is #2. I had him for 15 years. I know what stat whoring looks like.

QB: Manning, Favre, Brady, Brees

RB: E. Smith - took every TD scoring football home. enuff said. Basically said, I'm going to set the record.

WR: Rice - demanded the ball often after a down game. Need 3 TDs to set any sort of record? Good chance it was coming the next week. Loved it.

TE: There really isn't one I can think of yet. Rooting for Graham cause I own him. Gonzalez just went out and did his job. Never demanded the ball.

These guys had the talent to put up big #s. Who wouldn't be a stat whore if you had the skill to do so? Every one of us.

 

[General Tso]

I appreciate your thoughtful analysis - I really do. You are one of the few people in here that can have an intelligent discourse on the issue and I respect you for it. Here's my take on things, for what it's worth...

I hate passing records. Hate em. Always have, always will. I hated it when Peyton went for the TD record the first time. I got in several brawls in here with Joe Bryant himself on the issue. I hated it just as much a few years later when Brady did it. It went against everything I'd ever wanted Brady to be known for - an unselfish leader who focused on nothing more than winning as a team. Football is a team game and in my opinion individual records are a joke. Especially a record like passing TD's which has a built-in bias since the QB can change plays at the line of scrimmage. It goes totally against the concept of team play.

I watched every snap of every Denver game this year. I said after three weeks, in this very thread, that Peyton Manning would break the record, because he wanted to and because he could. I actually guaranteed it, and even predicted the exact amount of touchdowns he wold get - 55. You can look it up. I've seen the data, and while I appreciate the perspective you have added to the discussion (particularly your analysis of his diminished arm strength leading to a lower percentage of long range TD's) - I know what I saw this year... And that was a man who was laser focused on getting that record back, with equal if not more fervor than Brady displayed in that stupid 2007 campaign. I predicted it, witnessed it, and then analyzed data that supports what I saw. Sorry, but if it looks like duck and quacks like a duck - it's a duck. Manning had a personal agenda this year and he achieved it. By and large it was done with minimal downside to the team. But don't tell that to Knowshon Moreno. How much of a life changing event would it have been if he had a 20 TD season this year? Even worse is the tone it sets for a team. Nobody is talking about the Denver Broncos right now. It's all about Peyton Manning. I was kind of glad when the Pats didn't win it in 2007 and I'll be equally glad this year when the Seahawks - the team - kicks Manning's ### in the Superbowl. I wish it were different, because he is an all time great and a real good guy. But it is what it is.

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I would agree that Manning had a laser focus on scoring touchdowns this year, but I'm not sure I would agree that he had a laser focus on scoring PASSING touchdowns in particular, at the expense of scoring a greater number of touchdowns by other methods. After all, that naked bootleg against the Cowboys certainly didn't help his passing touchdown total. Regardless, we're both speculating; neither of us is capable of knowing what is in a player's private thoughts, and nothing Peyton Manning could say would ever be compelling evidence one way or the other. We're left trying to read the tea leaves and analyzing tiny samples to try to understand a player's motivations.

Still, motivation-guessing aside, there are a few points where I'm not sure whether we agree or disagree, so if it's okay, I'd like to ask a few questions to help clarify.

1. Denver was the most efficient red zone and goal-to-go offense in the league. Do you think their play-calling in those ranges was sub-optimal? Do you think they would have scored even more touchdowns still if they had called more runs and fewer passes?

2. Knowshon Moreno was 4th in the league in rushing touchdowns, and 5th in the league in total touchdowns (3rd among RBs). Moreno was 5th in the league in yards from scrimmage (4th among RBs). Do you believe that playing with Peyton Manning had a positive or negative impact on these totals? If Denver had started Brock Osweiler this season, do you believe Moreno would have more or fewer touchdowns? Would he have gained more or fewer yards?

3. Knowshon Moreno, despite playing as the lead back in a timeshare, was 8th in the league in rushes inside the 5 yards line. Do you believe this number would have been higher or lower if he had played with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning? Do you believe Peyton Manning had a positive or negative effect on the number of snaps Knowshon Moreno played inside the red zone? Do you believe that, on the net, Knowshon Moreno received more or fewer opportunities to score because he played in an offense with Peyton Manning? Despite its pass-heavy nature, Denver ranked 5th in the NFL in total rush attempts inside the 5 yard line with 16, just one attempt behind the league lead (a 4-way tie at 17). With another quarterback under center, do you think Denver would have ranked higher or lower?

4. Knowshon Moreno's contract expires after the 2013 season, and he will be a free agent. Imagining a counterfactual where Moreno played with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning this year, do you believe Knowshon Moreno would draw more or less interest in free agency? Do you think he would command more or less money in his next contract?

5. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, do you believe that Knowshon Moreno regrets playing with Peyton Manning this season?

Interesting questions, and I'd love to see someone do a detailed analysis. It gets to the heart of an important issue - does "apparent" record chasing of passing TD's have a deleterious affect on the overall success of a team? Real quick:

1. Hard to argue with Denver's offensive success this year, but I will say this: Inside the 5 yard line Manning threw 15 TD passes on 30 attempts (50% efficiency). Inside the 5 yard line Knowshon Moreno had 7 rushing TD's on 12 rushing attempts (58% efficiency).

2. Moreno definitely benefited from the great year Peyton had. And vice versa.

3. Denver's overall offensive success led to greater rushing opportunities and rushes for Moreno inside the 5 yard line. Yes, I do think if he had the same number of opportunities with another QB he would have had more actual rushing attempts than he did with Peyton. I do think Peyton was consciously chasing the record and therefore threw the ball more inside the 5.

4. Hard to say... There's no doubt that a rising tide raises all boats. But there are many other types of scenarios you could also look at. For instance, what if Manning wasn't chasing any record? He'd still have an awesome year, but maybe he only passes for 45 TD's instead of 55, with an extra 6 or 7 going to Moreno. Then you have a situation where it's a life changing event for Moreno. I do know this, he's a darn good running back, grossly under-rated and under-appreciated.

5. Again, hard to say... I think Knowshon is a team guy and is happy to have been a key part of a historically successful offense. But does he have some twinges of "what could have been" going through his head? Does he think sometimes, "What would things be like if I had been given more opportunities in the red zone? What would a 20 TD season have done to change my life, my career?" If I've wondered it I'm sure he has as well. But does he have regrets for playing with Manning? I doubt it. Regret is a harsh word.

Denver's Passing TD% the last 3 years has gone from 55% to 64% to 72% this year. Some people will argue that the mere fact they passed for 55 TD's translates to team success. I'm not so sure about that... I find it interesting that of the top 13 teams in Passing TD% this year, only 3 made the playoffs. Meanwhile Denver is #16 this year in terms of time of possession. And of the top 6 teams in this category, 5 made the playoffs. Neither stat is definitive, but it does raise some interesting questions that probably deserve further exploration.

For my money, I'd be a little worried right now that this team has become overly pass happy this year, especially heading into the playoffs where time of possession and grind it out football becomes more commonplace. This team is going to have to win three straight games in outdoor stadiums with wind and bitter cold very likely. And we all know Peyton's track record in these games (small hand, glove, no spiral, etc). I'm sure there's going to come a time where they are going to have to execute a short running play or a series of downs to run out the clock late in a game. Hard to change who you are when you've been doing it one way all season long.

 

[pizzatyme]

Other stats to consider:

Denver just had their 4th lowest ypr of the last 12 years at 4.39.

Despite that, they just had their 4th highest # of rushing TDs in the last 12 years at 15.

Total rushes and rushing yards fall middle of the pack at #6 & #7 respectively over the last 12 years.

I'd say they had ample rushing TDs. I'd also say at 4.39ypr they are more than capable of running this post season.

Source: Data Dominator