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OK, fine. But his prime is going to end sooner than any other player I named.Just consider what people would have said about Brady's chances 5 years ago. It hasn't happened. I'm not saying it's necessarily his fault; there are a lot of factors. But it illustrates that percentages must necessarily be low.What would you estimate the percentage chance that Brady wins again to be at this point?
I think 10% is too low. The average playoff team in a given year has an 8.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Patriots will make the playoffs with Brady probably another 4 or 5 times. If they make the playoffs with Brady another four times, and we give them an 8.3% chance at a ring each time, that gives Brady a ~30% shot at another ring.
I think this is too simplified. For example:1. It is no given they make the playoffs 4 more times with Brady; it's a high percentage but not 100%.2. Brady could get hurt again and miss enough games that the Pats don't make the playoffs and/or he could miss the playoffs/Super Bowl. Sure, it's not likely, but it still lowers the percentage.3. I also think there is a non-zero chance he won't play 5 more seasons, which would lower the number.4. I also think there is a non-zero chance that Belichick is not the Pats' coach for 5 more seasons, which would lower the likelihood of making the playoffs and thus lower the number.Etc.
No player in any sport wins every game, every post season, every "clutch" opportunity. I thought Brady had a terrible game. I don't pretend to know why. Last season, the loss of Welker may have been a big reason. The man has won 3 SBs. I'd take that in a heart beat. Now, I don't buy your rhetoric that the Colts never had a great team. Nor do I believe the Patriots have "carried" Brady. Comments like "when he got stat hungry" convince me of what I already thought... you are consumed with the Patriots. Any success somehow diminishes your beloved Colts and any failure is an opportunity for redemption.Get over it. Your a Colts fan. It is your right to hate everything non-Colts if you wish, but let's not bother the rest of the fantasy community with your life long mission.I'm a Dolphins fan.. have been since 1971. I saw the Patriots steal a game where a guy on release from prison ran a plow across the filed to clear a spot for a FG to beat Miami. Was I ticked? Sure.... but I outgrew it. The Dolphins have had rivalries with the Jets, Patriots, Raiders, & Chargers and lost SBs to Dallas, Washington and the 9ers. Maybe its an effect of having fantasy players from so many different teams but I just can't be a hater - without losing appreciation for many of the great players in the league today.
i think brady will play 5 more years at a high enough level to compete. 1/32x5=15%. but ofc, the brady is better than average, and bb is a genius at building a team and coaching it to perform at a high level. very important too, is that the pats are set up brilliantly for 2-5 years down the road with this current stockpile of draft picks. i dunno, id say brady is at least 50% to win another super bowl.Just Win Baby said:
Brady's odds are going to go down considerably after the next two years - I'd put his chances at 35% (10+10+5+5+5).
It's easy to believe what you already think, even though there's no evidence to support it. I'm not consumed by the Pats, I have no reason to be. Their success doesn't diminish the Colts, and frankly, I've been pretty consistent in thinking/believing the Pats are a great team with great coaching. I'd LOVE for the Colts to have a coach like Belicheck, his game planning is brilliant.As for your being a Miami fan, I like how you leave the Bills out of the rivalry, despite them owning Miami in the late 80's early 90's.
You provide the evidence. "He got stat hungry" pretty clearly states your opinion, doesn't it? If you're not bashing him you're pimping Felix Jones. Did I imagine that too?So, I left out the Bills? Over a forty year span you would like me to list every team the Dolphins have ever lost to? Oh, I get it... that was the "switz" attempt to put me down. You try to do that to a lot of people too. (It's rude by the way)
cvnpoka got the right answer by using the wrong method and then rounding idiosyncratically: five years with a 1/32 chance in each really is about 15 percent: 1 - (1 - 1/32)^5 = 14.7%.cstu's 35% should actually be 1 - (0.9^2 * 0.95^3) = 30.6%.
After Joe Montana won his second SB ring, the 49ers went into a lull in the post season.Despite having regular seasons of 10-6, 10-5-1, and 13-2, SF went one-and-done for three straight seasons (85-86-87). In fact, the 49ers went 0-3 in the post season and were outscored 102-30.
Tom's post season lull just keeps going on and on, year after year. Personally, I love it.
Only in so far as Big Ben has also never won a Super Bowl without a top ranked defense
No. I remember back around 2003 when people used that argument, but it clearly doesn't apply now.Nearly every time, you NEED a franchise QB to win a championship. They're too important, and to rely on a mediocre QB with a great defense is almost never a good way to win a championship.Talk about Sanchez all you want, but I don't see any championships from him yet, so he doesn't prove anything. Look at the SB winners of the last 15 years, in order:AikmanFavreElwayElwayWarnerDilferBradyJohnsonBradyBradyRoethlisbergerPeyton ManningEli ManningRoethlisbergerBreesOther than Dilfer and Johnson, I see a lot of stud QB's, many of them current or future Hall of Famers.EDIT: Misread your post, I see what you're saying about defense over offense to win championships, and I agree that good defense should be the priority. But you still can't just have anyone back there at QB even with a great defense and expect to win a championship, you've got to have a stud QB too to be able to carry the team at times when the defense suffers and be clutch when it matters, at least.
First, I hate Brady and the Pats. Secondly, I have always thought Brady was a system QB. C, I thought he played very well against the Jets. His WR's were dropping balls like crazy and his line didn't do squat to help. This game cannot be used against him. But I will cheer when that truck hits him and his stupid dimple.
I believe you are forgetting about his rookie season with Atlanta.If Brady fails to win another championship and finishes his career at the age of 40 with the Jets then would the 2018 Tom Brady = 2010 Brett Favre? They both woul have gone their last 14 years without a title.
Bingo.The only reason this thread exists is because Switz nerves were struck in the Manning thread.KY
