I’d welcome a more serious one (Romney?), but for now this is all we got, which makes it serious enough for me.
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Will Trump face a serious primary challenge? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter jamny
- Start date
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
Biden hasn’t formally announced on the Democratic side and he is one of the favorites.
sho nuff
Footballguy
But has talked about it and explored it. What republican has done that? In fact, the party has thrown all of their weight behind Trump.
Do you agree if he isn’t going to run he better say so sooner rather than later?
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
I think a challenger would probably have to be in by August. Kasich has been very coy about his plans. Romney will make a play.
prefontaine
Footballguy
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
It would be difficult to get enough fund raising and a volunteer apparatus in place in the primary states if you wait much longer.
prefontaine
Footballguy
Ok. I figured that's what you were thinking but wanted to be sure.
It doesn't appear like there will be a struggle for oxygen (media attention, campaign staff, donations, etc). There is also a significant advantage to candidates who have run before. So you would think both of your examples are guys that could wait much longer, though they'd obviously need to start laying the groundwork.
That said, I wouldn't really consider Kasich to be a serious candidate. He ran in 16 and got zero traction. Romney runs and I think you are getting serious. I'd rate his chances exceptionally low but it would be the kind of challenge that would be impossible to ignore.
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
prefontaine
Footballguy
I think you may have the date wrong or I'm not following. Cruz was the first to declare in 2015 and that was in late March. Kasich announced in July 2015 (which is before Trump or Rubio as well as quite a few other candidates).
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
Against my better judgment I am pulling this up from CNN. Kasich was one of the last ones in.prefontaine said:
https://www.cnn.com/2015/07/21/politics/john-kasich-election-2016-announcement/index.html
prefontaine
Footballguy
Yeah, you were right and I misread Wiki (Trump announced in June).
That said, I don't think that is a good comp. When the field is so large, every political operative takes a job. Most aren't going to sit around and wait for a guy to announce. So you are right that that may well have hurt Kasich last go round.
But that doesn't really apply to a 2-3 person field. There were 16 candidates last time so there are a lot of experienced operatives that aren't signed on to a campaign this time around.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Another thing to consider is that the strategy can be different when there is an unopposed incumbent. Eugene McCarthy did not announce his candidacy until January 1968, and Robert Kennedy didn't announce until mid-March. Reagan did not announce his first candidacy until November 1975. Ross Perot didn't appear on the scene until February 1992.
Granted, none of these moves resulted in wins. But Reagan prevented Ford from winning a majority of delegates (and the campaign put him in perfect position to win in 1980). Kennedy was gaining steam in 1968 and might have secured the nomination at the convention. And Perot might have won the presidency if he could have just hidden his stubborn and paranoid side for a few more weeks.
prefontaine
Footballguy
I definitely think the primaries have changed quite a bit since most of these events.
But I don't think someone like Romney needs to follow any rules or precedents. He's definitely a black swan. Past comparisons aren't very meaningful.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
it was considered bad form (and form was everything til Nixon) to announce before the Election Day previous to a presidential year and to campaign before the calendar year began. Carter broke the mold by stumping NH in the fall of '75.
Kasich came out guns blazing a coupla months ago and promptly shot himself in the foot with a poorly-canned message, then evaporated. Since i can't believe that he'd back off of his own volition, gotta think the GOP either ordered him off or told him they'd back him later if POTUS de-evoed further with a "reclaim the party" push. Romney no longer has to care, but will unless all is lost for Republicans with Trump.
Kasich came out guns blazing a coupla months ago and promptly shot himself in the foot with a poorly-canned message, then evaporated. Since i can't believe that he'd back off of his own volition, gotta think the GOP either ordered him off or told him they'd back him later if POTUS de-evoed further with a "reclaim the party" push. Romney no longer has to care, but will unless all is lost for Republicans with Trump.
[scooter]
Footballguy
For the record, Mo Udall announced his candidacy in late November 1974, Carter announced in December 1974.
It may be true that Carter stumped in NH before anyone else did (he was there on 10/2/1975). I can't find any references to other candidates going to NH before October, although Reagan definitely went there in November.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
From a tip by a friend, i interviewed Jimmah for WCOZ radio Boston after a ladies coffee klatch (maybe a dozen gals) near UNH in mid-November '75. He justified the early start off-the-record as a way to get ahead of machine politics - the favorite, Sen Scoop Jackson, was a labor candidate - while the post-Watergate iron was still hot.
[scooter]
Footballguy
But what does "all in" mean for you? Does it just mean that he'll get your vote, or will you be volunteering for his campaign? Maybe a lawn sign?
jamny
Footballguy
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Romney was a loser once ... count me out on him but I very much would like to see someone challenge Trump. There are candidates out there, they just have to get the ball rolling.
I doubt many conservatives are chained to Trump ... I think many like myself would vote for someone better qualified to lead this nation who holds conservative values who also doesn't tweet all the time with stupid stuff and can represent the office of the Presidency better
Who will it be? dunno ... time will tell
I doubt many conservatives are chained to Trump ... I think many like myself would vote for someone better qualified to lead this nation who holds conservative values who also doesn't tweet all the time with stupid stuff and can represent the office of the Presidency better
Who will it be? dunno ... time will tell
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
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ffldrew
Footballguy
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
That's a nice thought, one to joke about while getting stoned, perhaps, but the GOP has decided it's going to gasp out its last angry, spiteful breath behind the ample rear of Donald Trump. They're all in like we may never have seen anybody all in before and that might even include St. Ron Reagan.
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