Will we ever see another RB go into the Pro Football Hall of Fame? (1 Viewer)

[Yogibear]

The last pure RB to go into the Hall of Fame was Edgerrin James three years ago. Right now, the average career of an NFL running back is about 5-8 years. Running backs don't have the type of careers now that they did almost 20 years ago. Right now, the only guy that's a pure RB that has a chance to make the Hall of Fame is Marshawn Lynch. As for guys who are currently playing, I don't see any of them having a chance to make the Hall of Fame. Does anyone have any candidates for running backs that have a chance to make the Hall of Fame?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Derrick Henry has no shot at HoF?

 

[Boston]

The game always changes and involves...happens in every sport...the RB position will eventually evolve and regain its importance.

 

[hines]

Adrian Peterson
will make the
Hall
of Fame, I assume
Derrick Henry
probably will as well

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I’d say the following active players have a shot at HoF:

Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey
Nick Chubb
Breece Hall/Bijan Robinson (obviously long way to go on that)

 

[Anarchy99]

I’d say the following active players have a shot at HoF:

Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey
Nick Chubb
Breece Hall/Bijan Robinson (obviously long way to go on that)

The older RBs all sort of left the league and there really hasn't been time for a new crop of seasoned vets to emerge. The three guys you listed appear to be light years away for now according to PFR.

The average HOF Monitor score for a HOF RB is 107.

Henry (29) - 33.45 (95th)
McCaffrey (27) - 31.85 (107th)
Chubb (28) - 25.93 (158th)

IIRC, the highest score for an active RB is Kamara (28) at 37.30 (76th). Elliott (28) is next at 36.33 (80th). With RBs seemingly getting replaced sooner and not as many guys making it into their 30's, it might be a while before another RB puts together a HOF-level career. All these guys would probably need 3-5 more years as top RBs to improve their chances.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The average HOF Monitor score for a HOF RB is 107.

Henry (29) - 33.45 (95th)
McCaffrey (27) - 31.85 (107th)
Chubb (28) - 25.93 (158th)

I'm just thinking out loud here, but I don't think their careers are over yet - and they all do have a chance (Chubb least likely as even those numbers show). I'd bet Henry ends up in the HoF.

 

[JohnnyU]

The average HOF Monitor score for a HOF RB is 107.

Henry (29) - 33.45 (95th)
McCaffrey (27) - 31.85 (107th)
Chubb (28) - 25.93 (158th)

I'm just thinking out loud here, but I don't think their careers are over yet - and they all do have a chance (Chubb least likely as even those numbers show). I'd bet Henry ends up in the HoF.

I agree that Henry is a HOFer.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The average HOF Monitor score for a HOF RB is 107.

Henry (29) - 33.45 (95th)
McCaffrey (27) - 31.85 (107th)
Chubb (28) - 25.93 (158th)

I'm just thinking out loud here, but I don't think their careers are over yet - and they all do have a chance (Chubb least likely as even those numbers show). I'd bet Henry ends up in the HoF.

I agree that Henry is a HOFer.

If San Fran wins the SuperBowl this year with McC playing a major role, I think his chances are pretty good as well. The HoF is determined by a bunch of sports writers and not an analytics compiler.

I don't think either is a no-brainer or anything and I do agree each will need to have a few more nice seasons. Henry will almost certainly finish his career in the Top 20 for career rushing yards and rushing TDs and could finish top 15 in both- 22 more TDs will put him in the Top 10.

 

[Anarchy99]

The average HOF Monitor score for a HOF RB is 107.

Henry (29) - 33.45 (95th)
McCaffrey (27) - 31.85 (107th)
Chubb (28) - 25.93 (158th)

I'm just thinking out loud here, but I don't think their careers are over yet - and they all do have a chance (Chubb least likely as even those numbers show). I'd bet Henry ends up in the HoF.

I agree that Henry is a HOFer.

I'm not suggesting Henry will or won't be a HOFer, but I would suggest we won't know for quite a while. In today's game, not a lot of RBs make it past 28 let alone 30 years old. If he keeps playing and playing well for a few more years, then his chances will increase accordingly. If he got hurt and missed half the season again and averaged 3.5 ypc, he might not be on a HOF track and could see his workload reduced. To date, every back that had 12K rushing yards has or will be inducted. Henry's at 8,335. That's another 3,665 yards. There are several players at 11K+ that aren't in and may not get in (Taylor, Jackson, Dillon, McCoy . . . with Dunn a few yards short of that).

The post above projects Henry to finish in the Top 20 in career rushing yards. Taylor, Jackson, and Dillon are in that group, and I don't see any of them making it in. Henry is a lock to end up in the Top 20 in rushing TD. He only needs three more to get there. There are several guys on that list as well that aren't in yet (and are iffy to get in): Alexander, Holmes, Lynch, Dillon, Anderson).

Henry had one big post-season, but the Titans haven't won anything and haven't make any other deep playoff runs. I don't think he will get bonus points for leading a SB winning team like some other players might.

 

[kutta]

As the RB position changes, the criteria for HOF entry will too.

 

[menobrown]

I'm not suggesting Henry will or won't be a HOFer, but I would suggest we won't know for quite a while

I agree with you and put another way I think he still has a decent amount more he needs to do.

I think a few current RB's might make the HOF, but none of them are in the position where I"d say if their careers ended today they'd get in.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The average HOF Monitor score for a HOF RB is 107.

Henry (29) - 33.45 (95th)
McCaffrey (27) - 31.85 (107th)
Chubb (28) - 25.93 (158th)

I'm just thinking out loud here, but I don't think their careers are over yet - and they all do have a chance (Chubb least likely as even those numbers show). I'd bet Henry ends up in the HoF.

I agree that Henry is a HOFer.

I'm not suggesting Henry will or won't be a HOFer, but I would suggest we won't know for quite a while. In today's game, not a lot of RBs make it past 28 let alone 30 years old. If he keeps playing and playing well for a few more years, then his chances will increase accordingly. If he got hurt and missed half the season again and averaged 3.5 ypc, he might not be on a HOF track and could see his workload reduced. To date, every back that had 12K rushing yards has or will be inducted. Henry's at 8,335. That's another 3,665 yards. There are several players at 11K+ that aren't in and may not get in (Taylor, Jackson, Dillon, McCoy . . . with Dunn a few yards short of that).

The post above projects Henry to finish in the Top 20 in career rushing yards. Taylor, Jackson, and Dillon are in that group, and I don't see any of them making it in. Henry is a lock to end up in the Top 20 in rushing TD. He only needs three more to get there. There are several guys on that list as well that aren't in yet (and are iffy to get in): Alexander, Holmes, Lynch, Dillon, Anderson).

Henry had one big post-season, but the Titans haven't won anything and haven't make any other deep playoff runs. I don't think he will get bonus points for leading a SB winning team like some other players might.

I'm pretty sure I didn't say he was a lock - was just responding to the original topic of current players that have a chance.

 

[Insein]

Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson are locks.

Of current players, Derick Henry and Chubb are the only ones on a trajectory for it but they need to stay very healthy for another 8-10 years. McCafferty gets injured too much. Very little shot.

New guys you never know. Too many variables.

 

[foxco]

Of current players, Derick Henry and Chubb are the only ones on a trajectory for it but they need to stay very healthy for another 8-10 years.

Henry/Chubb playing another 8-10 years? Seems Insein!

 

[Ilov80s]

Peterson is a lock. I think Henry gets in with just one more great season and then 1 or 2 good seasons. Having a 2000 yard season is really significant and maybe it shouldn’t matter but his highlights and stature are so rare that it can’t help but get peoples attention. What’s going to hurt him is he lost a couple peak years of production because the Titans wouldn’t fully commit to him.

I don’t see it with Chubb, he’s going to need to have a really long career. CMC’s health betrayed him and hurt his chances. I like Bijan and Breece a lot but that’s pure projection. Might as well say Chris Olave and Anthony Richardson are headed to the hall of fame.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Yes.

 

[Insein]

Of current players, Derick Henry and Chubb are the only ones on a trajectory for it but they need to stay very healthy for another 8-10 years.

Henry/Chubb playing another 8-10 years? Seems Insein!

Agreed. Which is why I don't see them getting there. But that's what they'd need to be in the conversation.

 

[Anarchy99]

Of the Top 250 seasons in terms of YFS (that bar is currently 1,650 yards or more), Henry has 3 of them. Guys with more than that that are not HOFers are Tiki Barber (6), Clinton Portis (5), Ottis Anderson (5), and Shaun Alexander (4). (Adrian Peterson had 4 and Frank Gore had 1 . . . but I would slot them as future HOFers.)

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Of current players, Derick Henry and Chubb are the only ones on a trajectory for it but they need to stay very healthy for another 8-10 years.

Henry/Chubb playing another 8-10 years? Seems Insein!

Agreed. Which is why I don't see them getting there. But that's what they'd need to be in the conversation.

Henry is 4000yds and 22 TDs short of being top 10 all-time in both categories. If he stayed healthy and productive for 3-4 years he would likely hit both those numbers, and no way someone top 10 all-time in both those categories is missing the HoF.

At age 29 doing it for another 3 years is not likely, but it definitely wouldn't take 8-10 years.

 

[Black and Gold]

Super Bowls mean so much. If Henry gets a ring, he should be a lock.
If Terrell Davis can get in, Henry is much better.

 

[Insein]

Of current players, Derick Henry and Chubb are the only ones on a trajectory for it but they need to stay very healthy for another 8-10 years.

Henry/Chubb playing another 8-10 years? Seems Insein!

Agreed. Which is why I don't see them getting there. But that's what they'd need to be in the conversation.

Henry is 4000yds and 22 TDs short of being top 10 all-time in both categories. If he stayed healthy and productive for 3-4 years he would likely hit both those numbers, and no way someone top 10 all-time in both those categories is missing the HoF.

At age 29 doing it for another 3 years is not likely, but it definitely wouldn't take 8-10 years.

Fair enough. Let's say 5-7 years then. I don't see him staying on a 1400 yard pace though. He's going to fall off at some point. Then it's just how much can he accumulate and hang on for at the end.

 

[Anarchy99]

Things will get interesting after this year, as Henry is due to become a free agent. It may make more sense for the Titans just to franchise him than try hard to re-sign him. Last contract cycle, he got $25.5M guaranteed with a $12M signing bonus. Not sure he'll see that this time. He is 250 carries from 2,000 for his career. A lot will depend on how things go this season.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The post above projects Henry to finish in the Top 20 in career rushing yards. Taylor, Jackson, and Dillon are in that group, and I don't see any of them making it in. Henry is a lock to end up in the Top 20 in rushing TD. He only needs three more to get there. There are several guys on that list as well that aren't in yet (and are iffy to get in): Alexander, Holmes, Lynch, Dillon, Anderson).

I wasn’t saying compiling those stats were what would get him in - just that they could be used to support his nomination.

He needs one or two more big seasons, I’d agree, but for a short time he was dominant and he’ll be remembered for those punishing stiff arms, the pony tail weave flapping as he broke a long run, running over people and his hulking size. On top of that he’ll he Top 15 in rushing yards and Top 10 in rushing TDs.

It’s not all numbers when it comes to the Hall of Fame and that theme will be beaten to death when Eli gets in. It’s also about the history of the league and Henry is one of the more popular players of his era.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I like Bijan and Breece a lot but that’s pure projection

It is of course but the topic requires some projection and those guys seem to have the talent to do it, and I did provide the parenthetical disclaimer.

Admittedly the only two true candidates that are active players that you can project getting there are Henry and McCaffrey. With CMC I am assuming a few years of high production in San Fran and a potential ring.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

And looking it over I did overrate Chubb’s chances based on my view of his talent. He just can’t put up the numbers that would get him there at this point.

 

[Anarchy99]

The post above projects Henry to finish in the Top 20 in career rushing yards. Taylor, Jackson, and Dillon are in that group, and I don't see any of them making it in. Henry is a lock to end up in the Top 20 in rushing TD. He only needs three more to get there. There are several guys on that list as well that aren't in yet (and are iffy to get in): Alexander, Holmes, Lynch, Dillon, Anderson).

I wasn’t saying compiling those stats were what would get him in - just that they could be used to support his nomination.

He needs one or two more big seasons, I’d agree, but for a short time he was dominant and he’ll be remembered for those punishing stiff arms, the pony tail weave flapping as he broke a long run, running over people and his hulking size. On top of that he’ll he Top 15 in rushing yards and Top 10 in rushing TDs.

It’s not all numbers when it comes to the Hall of Fame and that will beaten to death when Eli gets in. It’s also about the history of the league and Henry is one of the more popular players of his era.

I could be wrong, but I suspect that the current era with what people recently saw with their own eyes will create some sort of recency bias. That's just how things go. Henry is a great back, no doubt, but I have been watching football for 50 years. Can we tell the story of the NFL without Henry? Probably. That doesn't mean he won't make it in, but as of now I don't think he meets that standard. If he has 5 more 1,500 yard seasons, then he could vault to the forefront of all time backs.

For better or for worse, career stats are a huge component to making the HOF, as is winning titles, awards, and multiple other factors. We are getting to the point where careers can be much longer than in other eras and the production numbers are getting higher and higher. Mike Evans has had 1,000+ receiving yards in all 9 of his seasons, hasn't turned 30 yet, and with a decent season this year could be Top 30 all time in receiving yards, Top 50 in receptions, and Top 15 in receiving TD by the end of the season. He's put up incredible numbers and has been very consistent, but I don't ever remember watching him play and said, "Man, that guy is one of the all-time greats!" That's not intended to be a knock on Evans, but if we were talking about the greatest WRs to ever play the game, Evans wouldn't jump out at me as someone I would nominate as part of the discussion.

 

[massraider]

Yes.

They don't want to just induct a bunch of WRs and QBs every year.

RBS will get the Gale Sayers treatment, while WRs will need to be compilers.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The post above projects Henry to finish in the Top 20 in career rushing yards. Taylor, Jackson, and Dillon are in that group, and I don't see any of them making it in. Henry is a lock to end up in the Top 20 in rushing TD. He only needs three more to get there. There are several guys on that list as well that aren't in yet (and are iffy to get in): Alexander, Holmes, Lynch, Dillon, Anderson).

I wasn’t saying compiling those stats were what would get him in - just that they could be used to support his nomination.

He needs one or two more big seasons, I’d agree, but for a short time he was dominant and he’ll be remembered for those punishing stiff arms, the pony tail weave flapping as he broke a long run, running over people and his hulking size. On top of that he’ll he Top 15 in rushing yards and Top 10 in rushing TDs.

It’s not all numbers when it comes to the Hall of Fame and that will beaten to death when Eli gets in. It’s also about the history of the league and Henry is one of the more popular players of his era.

I could be wrong, but I suspect that the current era with what people recently saw with their own eyes will create some sort of recency bias. That's just how things go. Henry is a great back, no doubt, but I have been watching football for 50 years. Can we tell the story of the NFL without Henry? Probably. That doesn't mean he won't make it in, but as of now I don't think he meets that standard. If he has 5 more 1,500 yard seasons, then he could vault to the forefront of all time backs.

For better or for worse, career stats are a huge component to making the HOF, as is winning titles, awards, and multiple other factors. We are getting to the point where careers can be much longer than in other eras and the production numbers are getting higher and higher. Mike Evans has had 1,000+ receiving yards in all 9 of his seasons, hasn't turned 30 yet, and with a decent season this year could be Top 30 all time in receiving yards, Top 50 in receptions, and Top 15 in receiving TD by the end of the season. He's put up incredible numbers and has been very consistent, but I don't ever remember watching him play and said, "Man, that guy is one of the all-time greats!" That's not intended to be a knock on Evans, but if we were talking about the greatest WRs to ever play the game, Evans wouldn't jump out at me as someone I would nominate as part of the discussion.

I’m not sure how much back and forth I want to have on a topic asking for speculation on whether any active backs can potentially make the HoF, and replying with a few I think could - so I declare you the winner.

 

[Anarchy99]

I’m not sure how much back and forth I want to have on a topic asking for speculation on whether any active backs can potentially make the HoF, and replying with a few I think could - so I declare you the winner.

There are no winners or losers on opinion or speculation topics.

 

[titusbramble]

ADP will. Gore will. There's a handful of actives that have somewhat of a chance that have already been mentioned upthread, of which Henry might be the closest. I suppose it is a case of balancing how much volume a player can actually get, both in terms of the current RBBC landscape and the increasing tendency to write RBs off earlier in their careers - although if players have less touches due to the former then maybe it keeps them fresher for a longer career? Hard to say. I just look at the likes of Leveon Bell and was surprised at just how few yards he ended up with

 

[Bri]

Henry has met whatever requirements you'd ask except for possibly longevity.
The 2000, lead the league, dominant, do well behind a good or bad line, do well against highly regarded Ds or run defenders etc.

He comes up during a lot of HOF discussions so the voters already have an eye on him and he's probably in already.

I think relative to other eras, he needs a couple more good not great years and that David's mentioning that above.

I'm not sure CMC has yet with his injury years.

I think the longevity is the point of this post and it's a good point.
Priest or whomever was "he wasn't elite long enough" and now no one will be.

This is not exclusive to RBs. The NFL rarely allows name veterans to be backups anymore. It irritates me to no end. If there's 20-30 in the league doing that, well there used to be 100.

RB is shorter, absolutely, but it's a league wide issue where they're seemingly clueless why the vet minimum salary exists and how it would benefit them.

A lot of RBs are arrogant and angry when the bottom drops. I understand it wholeheartedly but at the same time, they don't exactly come across as a team player.
I bet if Leveon Bell had his head on straight he could have had a couple plodding years. Zeke has shut up but to start the offseason he didn't do himself any favors.

I think the biggest problem with the RB market is NFL teams are awful at evaluating RBs and have been for more than a decade. "A dime a dozen, can find one on the waiver wire" became a mantra that covered horrible scouting.
It should have been- umm all of us stink at our jobs because James Robinson was awesome and he was a UDFA we all could have rostered with a pick.
Antonio Andrews is a fave of mine- total yes coach guy that broke some of Barry (Barry curse Sanders!) records. He went undrafted and beat out the top RB in one draft and a draft darling the next year.
Priest and whomever else.

Why pay a RB millions of a UDFA can do well? Again, that is such a well done cover of "we stunk at scouting."
Fixing this would certainly help the RBs get paid better eventually and change data points

 

[Uncle Leo]

Barkley has a chance.

 

[Insein]

And looking it over I did overrate Chubb’s chances based on my view of his talent. He just can’t put up the numbers that would get him there at this point.

I disagree with that. He only needs another 4 years at his current rate of carries and production to get to the top 20 for yards. If he is able to stay healthy, he should finish at least around 14k yards which is top 10.

 

[Insein]

Barkley has a chance.

Unfortunately I don't think he does. Injuries have derailed his chance during the most productive years of his career. Expecting him to stay healthy to put up the numbers needed after his been in the league 5 years already is too much.

 

[Yenrub]

Of the Top 250 seasons in terms of YFS (that bar is currently 1,650 yards or more), Henry has 3 of them. Guys with more than that that are not HOFers are Tiki Barber (6), Clinton Portis (5), Ottis Anderson (5), and Shaun Alexander (4). (Adrian Peterson had 4 and Frank Gore had 1 . . . but I would slot them as future HOFers.)

While I think Ottis Anderson should be in - I wonder if he ever will. He's been eligible for almost 30 years now.
Ottis was top 10 in both rushing yards and TD's when he retired.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Who cares. Nobody is catching 22!

 

[Insein]

Who cares. Nobody is catching 22!

Well that's becoming more of a lock every year.

 

[titusbramble]

Who cares. Nobody is catching 22!

Well that's becoming more of a lock every year.

That is almost as obvious as saying nobody is catching Cy Young for career wins at this stage. Game has changed for good

 

[TheDirtyWord]

As the RB position changes, the criteria for HOF entry will too.

Agreed, but it's crazy that of the Top 80 RB's in rushing yards all-time, only 4 are active and Henry leads active rushers in 42nd...

 

[kutta]

As the RB position changes, the criteria for HOF entry will too.

Agreed, but it's crazy that of the Top 80 RB's in rushing yards all-time, only 4 are active and Henry leads active rushers in 42nd...

That’s really wild.

 

[TLEF316]

Yeah, I think the height of the bar will change as the game continues to evolve.

Terrell Davis got in despite only having a 7 year career.....and he was injured for the last 3. Obviously he won 2 rings....which is the main reason he's in. So I dont see why another insanely productive RB (over a 4 or 5 year period) couldn't get in if he experiences tremendous team success.

Now......if a guy is only just pretty good (A top 5-10 back in the league but not ELITE) until he's like 27-29 years old and never wins a thing....I dont think he should be in. IMO, someone like Chubb fits in that bucket. If he were retire tomorrow.....he'd have 4 pro bowl seasons (one 2nd team AP).....never lead the league in rushing and never won even a single playoff game. Is he one of the top 3 backs in the league? IMO, he's not. He's in the hall of really really good but if you're gonna have a short career playing for a (mostly) losing team, you better be one of the 2 or 3 most feared guys at your position.

IMO, Henry is in with 1 or 2 more productive years.(not saying he's gotta get 1,500 yards....but he's gotta get like 1,200). He's led the league in rushing twice (and probably does it again in 2021 if he doesn't get hurt) was the AP OPOY and was unquestionably a top 2 RB in the league during his prime years (which may not even be over). Team success hasn't been spectacular (2 division titles and one AFC title game appearance) but I still think he's in (even if he totally falls off a cliff this year.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yeah, I think the height of the bar will change as the game continues to evolve.

Terrell Davis got in despite only having a 7 year career.....and he was injured for the last 3. Obviously he won 2 rings....which is the main reason he's in. So I dont see why another insanely productive RB (over a 4 or 5 year period) couldn't get in if he experiences tremendous team success.

Now......if a guy is only just pretty good (A top 5-10 back in the league but not ELITE) until he's like 27-29 years old and never wins a thing....I dont think he should be in. IMO, someone like Chubb fits in that bucket. If he were retire tomorrow.....he'd have 4 pro bowl seasons (one 2nd team AP).....never lead the league in rushing and never won even a single playoff game. Is he one of the top 3 backs in the league? IMO, he's not. He's in the hall of really really good but if you're gonna have a short career playing for a (mostly) losing team, you better be one of the 2 or 3 most feared guys at your position.

IMO, Henry is in with 1 or 2 more productive years.(not saying he's gotta get 1,500 yards....but he's gotta get like 1,200). He's led the league in rushing twice (and probably does it again in 2021 if he doesn't get hurt) was the AP OPOY and was unquestionably a top 2 RB in the league during his prime years (which may not even be over). Team success hasn't been spectacular (2 division titles and one AFC title game appearance) but I still think he's in (even if he totally falls off a cliff this year.

Terrell is an outlier with an INSANE two season stretch. The Broncos won in back-to-back seasons . . . in which TD accounted for a combined 5,418 YFS and 49 TD (regular season and post season combined). That bears repeating . . . all that accomplished IN TWO YEARS! He averaged 142.6 YFS. That's almost inhuman.

We won't know until we get there with Henry. If he never played another down, I doubt he'd make it in. What he does from here, how long he plays, and what he would need to get in are all ??? He could rack up another 5K rushing yards and finish in the Top 10. He could get hurt in Week 1 and never play again.

No two players are the same but for guys that ran for 2K in a season, here's what they produced running the ball from Age 29 on:

Eric Dickerson - 3344/15
Adrian Peterson - 4803/34
Jamal Lewis - 1502/4
Barry Sanders - 3544/15
Terrell Davis - 701/0
Chris Johnson - 1686/5
O.J. Simpson - 3113/12

I am not going to venture a guess as to what happens moving forward.

 

[SoBeDad]

As a freshman behind Portis, he looked like the best RB I had ever seen. When Gore had his 1st ACL tear at UM, he had beaten McGahee in spring practice for the starting job. Then he had another ACL tear at UM 18 months later.

The injuries slowed him down a little, but his RB instincts were still great. It's amazing that he stayed almost injury free as a pro, his longevity at a high level is the reason he'll get in the HOF.

 

[Lansdowne]

Yeah, I think the height of the bar will change as the game continues to evolve.

Terrell Davis got in despite only having a 7 year career.....and he was injured for the last 3. Obviously he won 2 rings....which is the main reason he's in. So I dont see why another insanely productive RB (over a 4 or 5 year period) couldn't get in if he experiences tremendous team success.

Now......if a guy is only just pretty good (A top 5-10 back in the league but not ELITE) until he's like 27-29 years old and never wins a thing....I dont think he should be in. IMO, someone like Chubb fits in that bucket. If he were retire tomorrow.....he'd have 4 pro bowl seasons (one 2nd team AP).....never lead the league in rushing and never won even a single playoff game. Is he one of the top 3 backs in the league? IMO, he's not. He's in the hall of really really good but if you're gonna have a short career playing for a (mostly) losing team, you better be one of the 2 or 3 most feared guys at your position.

IMO, Henry is in with 1 or 2 more productive years.(not saying he's gotta get 1,500 yards....but he's gotta get like 1,200). He's led the league in rushing twice (and probably does it again in 2021 if he doesn't get hurt) was the AP OPOY and was unquestionably a top 2 RB in the league during his prime years (which may not even be over). Team success hasn't been spectacular (2 division titles and one AFC title game appearance) but I still think he's in (even if he totally falls off a cliff this year.

Terrell is an outlier with an INSANE two season stretch. The Broncos won in back-to-back seasons . . . in which TD accounted for a combined 5,418 YFS and 49 TD (regular season and post season combined). That bears repeating . . . all that accomplished IN TWO YEARS! He averaged 142.6 YFS. That's almost inhuman.

We won't know until we get there with Henry. If he never played another down, I doubt he'd make it in. What he does from here, how long he plays, and what he would need to get in are all ??? He could rack up another 5K rushing yards and finish in the Top 10. He could get hurt in Week 1 and never play again.

No two players are the same but for guys that ran for 2K in a season, here's what they produced running the ball from Age 29 on:

Eric Dickerson - 3344/15
Adrian Peterson - 4803/34
Jamal Lewis - 1502/4
Barry Sanders - 3544/15
Terrell Davis - 701/0
Chris Johnson - 1686/5
O.J. Simpson - 3113/12

I am not going to venture a guess as to what happens moving forward.

Priest Holmes had an even more insane 3-year stretch from 2001-2003 where he averaged 2,189 YFS and 20 combined TDs per season. But he’s penalized because he did it for an underwhelming Chiefs team that only played 1 playoff game in that stretch, through no fault of Holmes. Terrell Davis played for a great Broncos team and I think part of where Davis gets HOF credit is that he was a big part in getting another legend, John Elway, over the hump and winning the Super Bowl (twice). Holmes has a ring himself but as a backup for the Ravens.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Barkley has a chance.

Hard disagree. He's not even in the conversation at this point.

 

[-OZ-]

Of current players, Derick Henry and Chubb are the only ones on a trajectory for it but they need to stay very healthy for another 8-10 years.

Henry/Chubb playing another 8-10 years? Seems Insein!

if DH stays healthy and anywhere near his current level for 8-10 years he’ll take over the status of

 

[-OZ-]

Barkley has a chance.

Hard disagree. He's not even in the conversation at this point.

Both statements are true imo.
Saquon has a chance. He’s currently only behind Chubb in yards from scrimmage out of players entering the league in the last 5 years. If he retired today he’s not in the conversation but if he can stay healthy he very much is in consideration.

Although if I had to bet on any current RB, it would be Henry, CMC, Chubb, and Jacobs.

 

[Anarchy99]

If we count Gore and Peterson as in already, here are the other RBs not in based on career rushing yards and career YFS:

Fred Taylor - 11695
Steven Jackson - 11438
Corey Dillon - 11241
LeSean McCoy - 11102
Warrick Dunn - 10967

Tiki Barber - 15632
Warrick Dunn - 15306
Steven Jackson - 15121
LeSean McCoy - 15000
Ricky Watters - 14891

Here are the current active leaders for players under 30:

Derrick Henry - 8335 (29)
Ezekiel Elliott - 8262 (28)
Nick Chubb - 6341 (28)
Dalvin Cook - 5993 (28)
Joe Mixon - 5378 (27)
Aaron Jones - 5284 (29)
Alvin Kamara - 5135 (28)

Ezekiel Elliott - 10598 (28)
Derrick Henry - 9579 (29)
Alvin Kamara - 8888 (29)
Christian McCaffrey - 8482 (27)
Dalvin Cook - 7787 (28)
Nick Chubb - 7331 (28)

IMO, it's a safe bet that a current RB will have to be in the 11000 rushing yards / 15000 YFS range to have much of a chance to get inducted (unless he was a main cog in an offensive machine that was consistently in the title hunt and won a SB). Guys not on the active players list are still far away. For example, Josh Jacobs is at 4740/5892 at 25 . . . but that also means he would still need roughly 6500/9200 yards to hit those levels.

 

[travdogg]

As the RB position changes, the criteria for HOF entry will too.

Agreed, but it's crazy that of the Top 80 RB's in rushing yards all-time, only 4 are active and Henry leads active rushers in 42nd...

To be fair, 2 of the top-5 all-time in career yards just retired in the last 2 seasons. Not that career rushing yards is a particularly good measure of quality of play.

I'll always argue Frank Gore was never at any point a truly elite RB, he just played forever. Every RB in the top-16 in career yards was better than the guy who is currently #3.

Obviously there will be another HOF RB. It is possible that receiving ability becomes more of an important factor than rushing ability though. Especially as more RBs like CMC or Ekeler, become the prototype. We just saw a guy along those lines go #12 in the draft, and that very well may be the future of the position.