Will you be drafting Gates in the 3rd? (1 Viewer)

[Genester]

ill wait for incas response Blackstar but isnt part of Gates appeal also the lack of ambiguity?

This "lack of ambiguity" also translates into lack of guessing. For the folks who suggest TE by committee, how many times will you start the wrong one? This appliies to any position - many articles I've seen, including here, take historical or projected numbers from 2-3 mid/late picks, and suggest the combined performance may be equal to or exceeding an early single pick at the same position... and it may be true, on paper... but how often do the match-ups not work our as predicted, and you end up starting the wrong guy? Yes, there's risk in taking Gates early if he underperforms. But there's as much if not more risk in going insane and second guessing yourself each week on which part of your player by committee you should be starting. I, for one, appreciate knowing I can stick Gates in every week but his bye week, and worry about who to start at other positions on my team.

 

[SSOG]

Where is that thread where SSOG and others were debating over the merits of drafting Gates early?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=317304FWIW, I wouldn't hesitate to draft Gates in the 3rd. Hell, I wouldn't hesitate to draft him in the mid-to-late 2nd if I didn't think he'd make it back to me in the 3rd. I'm sort of screwed this season because in all 3 drafts I've participated in so far, I've been at the end of the drafting order, so it's either draft Gates within the first 3 picks of the second round (which I'm not willing to do), or miss out on him entirely.

OK last completely trivial tidbit. SD hosts Denver on MNF in Week 16 on Christmas Eve. Thatd be a fun Christmas present to wrap up a championship with gates on the last relevant night of FF for 2007...

Be careful, Denver is TE kryptonite. Over the last three years, Gonzo has gone 17/157/1 against Denver... TOTAL. That's an average game of 3/26/.17 (average score: 3.6, 6.6 in PPR). Gonzo's average against everyone else over that span was 6/75/.33 (9.5, 15.5 in PPR). Gates finally had a breakthrough performance against Denver at the end of the year last year (107 yards and 2 scores), but in the 5 games before that he averaged 42 yards and no scores. That's 12 games against the top TEs in the league over the last three years, and the two studs have managed to find the end zone in only two of those twelve games, and have only broken 50 yards in three of those twelve games.In other words, that would be fun, but don't get your hopes to far up quite yet.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Now I know you can't have the perfect draft if you take Gates in the 3rd

 

[tamales]

tough to pass on him in the third. especially with the depth at WR this year. you can get guys like walker/evans/driver in the fourth, which i would be perfectly happy with as my #1 guy.

EXACTLY my thinking!!!! I just traded down in the 2nd round to move up in the 3rd round so I can be sure to get Gates. I had pick 2.08 and 3.06 and I traded for 2.12 and 3.01. The thing is in the middle of the 2nd round there is not value. I can still get a decent RB2 such as Benson, Portis, or James with 2.12 and trading up to 3.01 assures me of getting Gates. Then in round 4 the likes of Evans and Driver who I am both high on can be had as my WR1! In my league where TEs get 1/2 ppr I think this would pay off nicely.

 

[Verbal Kint]

The one thing about drafting him in the 3rd round is, if he doesn't live up to expectations your team is pretty much screwed. I like someone such as Heap better in the 6th (or 7th, as I was able to snag him in one draft).

I took Gonzo a couple years ago in the 3rd when he was projected to be the #1 overall. He ultimately fell flat and I was hamstrung for the rest of draft.

 

[CalBear]

The one thing about drafting him in the 3rd round is, if he doesn't live up to expectations your team is pretty much screwed. I like someone such as Heap better in the 6th (or 7th, as I was able to snag him in one draft).

I took Gonzo a couple years ago in the 3rd when he was projected to be the #1 overall. He ultimately fell flat and I was hamstrung for the rest of draft.

How many other players were taken in the third round that year that fell flat?Please note that your definition of falling flat must include, "finished within 1 PPG of #4 overall at his position."

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

For those that would take Gates, which WR would you take over Gates? I am thinking Smith, Chad Johnson, Harrison, Owens, Holt, and Wayne. What about Walker, Houshmanzadeh, Evans, Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Driver, R Moss, Boldin, Colston, or A. Johnson?

Thats a good question.S.Smith

C.Johnson

M.Harrison

T.Owens

T.Holt

R.Wayne

R.Williams

Fitzgerald

A.Gates

Houshmanzadeh

Boldin

A.Johnson

L.Evans

D.Driver

M.Colston

R.Moss

That is my ranking exactly.

I feel like after Wayne, R.Williams and Fitzgerald there is a sizable difference in quality of WRs and Gates is much more of a sure thing than any of the ones after those 3.

 

[FFdork]

The one thing about drafting him in the 3rd round is, if he doesn't live up to expectations your team is pretty much screwed. I like someone such as Heap better in the 6th (or 7th, as I was able to snag him in one draft).

I'm not really following your logic in terms of how this relates to Gates. If any of your pics in the first three rounds bust, that's tough for your team to overcome, especially in bigger leagues.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

ill wait for incas response Blackstar but isnt part of Gates appeal also the lack of ambiguity?

This "lack of ambiguity" also translates into lack of guessing. For the folks who suggest TE by committee, how many times will you start the wrong one? This appliies to any position - many articles I've seen, including here, take historical or projected numbers from 2-3 mid/late picks, and suggest the combined performance may be equal to or exceeding an early single pick at the same position... and it may be true, on paper... but how often do the match-ups not work our as predicted, and you end up starting the wrong guy? Yes, there's risk in taking Gates early if he underperforms. But there's as much if not more risk in going insane and second guessing yourself each week on which part of your player by committee you should be starting. I, for one, appreciate knowing I can stick Gates in every week but his bye week, and worry about who to start at other positions on my team.

Yes, and in my experience it is very hard to predict the weeks when an average TE will go off. Playing the matchups works with DEF and RB, but not TE. No data on this, just something I've noticed.

 

[CrossEyed]

I play in a league that gives 1.5 ppr for TEs. I may take Gates at 2.04

 

[Dentist]

I have a scoring system that intentionally ramps TE's up, combined with a 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex lineup, Gates is a early to mid 2nd round pick... the 1st round wouldn't be a total stretch.

GB scoring systems that are custom tailored to get rid of all the runningback bias. Our first round will be a nicely balanced 7-8 RB's. 2 QB's, 2 WR's. and will be statistically correct and supported by the draft dominator.

 

[Shrek]

I took him at 3.8 in my PPR league. I was actually surprised he was there. No real hesitancy about it either.

I doubt I would do it in a league where TE's are only part of a flex position though. If everyone has to start a TE it's worth it. Otherwise I'd wait a round.

 

[notapplicable]

In my ten team league I picked Wayne over him at the end of the 3rd round.

 

[Linton Trust]

i might be drafting him with 2:03 (haven't decided yet between him in Roy Williams who i have at 100 REC)

our league gives 1 pt for RB reception

2 pts for WR reception

and 3 pts for TE reception

the leagues been going to about 15 years now. yet through VBD i was the first to realize TEs shouldn't be taken where the magazines say they should (this was about 5 years ago when i was introduced to VBD). And now the top 10 TEs will most likely all be gone by round 6.

 

[TEOM]

I have a scoring system that intentionally ramps TE's up, combined with a 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex lineup, Gates is a early to mid 2nd round pick... the 1st round wouldn't be a total stretch.GB scoring systems that are custom tailored to get rid of all the runningback bias. Our first round will be a nicely balanced 7-8 RB's. 2 QB's, 2 WR's. and will be statistically correct and supported by the draft dominator.

same here. I am on the 12-13 turn (w/IDP) and am considering BA Running Back/Gates....Due to the IDP Scoring some LB's will come off the board in Rnds2-3 that will push some WR1-2 or RB 2 talent down to me if I roll the dice with this....

 

[QuizGuy66]

It'd be almost impossible for me to pass him up at 3.10/4.01 spots. The funny part is if I don't get him I probably don't pick a TE 'til about 8 or so are gone.

-QG

 

[Tau837]

I have the 3rd pick in a 16 team, non PPR, start 1 TE league. Strongly considering him at 3.3, and possibly even 2.10, depending on players available and likelihood of someone else I want slipping from 2.10 to 3.3. I'm thinking I'd ideally like to have Gates and 2 RBs after my first 3 picks, then go WR in 4th & 5th. I'll deviate as needed based on the value available at each pick, but that is my general gameplan at the moment. If Gates goes before 2.10, I'll obviously wait on TE.

 

[PsychoMan]

I took him at 4.2 in my 10 teamer and was amazed he lasted that long. My first 4 picks ended up being P Manning, T Henry, T Owens, A Gates ...

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Got him at 4.4 of a 12 teamer last night and I was certainly pleased with that value.

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

I think Gates is even more undervalued in an auction league because most owners just don't want to spend money on a TE. the #1 WR will probably go for somewhere between 26-29% of the cap, whereas Gates will probably only go for 15-18% and represent greater value.

ETA: whoops, didn't see the other Gates auction thread.

 

[LordHusker]

I think many of you are underestimating when Gates will be drafted. He's gone in the second round of my 14-team league the last three years. He's sort of like Manning: Someone always grabs him early, reasoning that he's the best at his position by far. That said, if he's there at 2.13 this year -- I have the No. 2 slot in the draft -- I'll probably take him myself and come back with a RB at 3.2. I really don't feel great about any of the top WRs and am willing to gamble I can find some solid players in rounds 4-6.

 

[Alias]

I pencil'd him at 3.11 if he is available in a 16 teamer. (he was at last year's draft, same owners - taken at 3.12)

 

[kal-el]

Was contemplating this question earlier. I have the fourth pick in our 10-team draft so will be picking in the 24th spot (4th pick in 3rd round).

I compared the total point scored under FBG projections by:

a) Gates (if I draft him in the 3rd round) with whatever the highest projected WR available under ADP data for the 4th-9th rounds will be.

b) Wayne (who the ADP data says is currently going #24) with whatever the highest projected TE available under ADP data for the 4th-9th rounds will be.

Here are the results (hopefully the formatting works):

Rd Gates Best WR Total Wayne Best TE Total Difference

4 151 Driver 164 315 186 Shockey 123 309 6

5 151 Burress 153 304 186 Shockey 123 309 -5

6 151 S Moss 147 298 186 Shockey 123 309 -11

7 151 Cotchery 134 285 186 Shockey 123 309 -24

8 151 Cotchery 134 285 186 Winslow 108 294 -9

9 151 V Jackson 129 280 186 Winslow 108 294 -14

(Sorry if I've given away too much subscriber info, but have to use something reasonable to make the model work.)

Under this line of thinking, taking Gates at #24 doesn't appear to make sense. The roughly 40-point drop off from Gates to the #2 projected TE looks big on paper, but you have to remember that the #2 TE probably won't be drafted until the 6th or 7th round, so the drop off in projected WRs available will have fallen off even more.

This could be calibrated to figure out what the break-even point is in terms of drafting Gates. Based on subtracting roughly 10-25 points from the WR projected to be available at a given point to make the "difference" column zero out, it looks like the break-even point is somewhere in picks 33-37.

What am I oversimplifying here?