Wille Parker (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

Hadn't seen a spotlight on Willie Parker yet, but wanted to chat about him.

As I'm starting to do mocks, I'm somewhat surprised at how low Parker is going. Currently he's nestled in a tier with:

Earnest Graham

Lendale White

Selvin Young

Thomas Jones

And is going in the middle of the 4th in 12-teamers. This seems a bit wacky to me.

I know they drafted Mendenhal and everyone projects him to take a lot of touches, but I don't see it. How many times do we see rookie first round picks go to teams with an established vet all pro and steal significant carries in year one? Not often.

Surely he will take some carries from Parker and he won't get 300+, but this is a playoff Steelers team and they are going to keep the vet RB on the field more than the rookie. If Parker is healthy, he is going to put up numbers that should merit a lower-end RB1, say 1200/5, yet he's being drafted as a lower tier RB2.

To me, he screams insane value play. What am I missing?

 

[David Dodds]

Discounting that Mendenhall is a rookie and that Parker just went to the Pro-Bowl and look only at their skill sets and size and you would come to the logical conclusion that Parker is likely to be better suited as the 3rd down/change of pace back. He's smaller, faster and is not that great on the goal line. That's the dilemma. A lot of us see these guys are likely to switch their roles sometime. I have no problem with people saying it won't be until next year or longer. A lot will likely depend on Medenhall's ability to pick up blitz schemes and block effectively.

I am probably in the minority here, but I think Willie Parker is about where he should go. He will likely be the clear cut starter to begin the season (undervalued), but I see his carries waning as the year goes on. His ranking reflects both of these scenarios.

 

[None_More_Black]

I think Parker is decent value but we all like tds in ff and Parker was terrible last year. He is not a good short yardage back and does not catch many balls out of the backfield either. Pittsburgh already like to throw the ball near the endzone (maybe out of necessity last year) and I see Mendelhall having a good chance of being the goaline back. I think he is slowly becoming a Julius Jones like player and a mid fourth is about what he is worth. I am a little biased because his lack of td production killed me last year in my big money league. I will be interested to see who is getting gl carries in preseason.

 

[Cookiemonster]

As a long-time Steeler fan, I've been waiting for Parker's demise for a few years. He's better when getting the minority of the carries, and as a poor receiver OOTB, M'hall could be the best 3rd down back by year's end. MeMo should be the 3rd down back going in. M'hall should be a better short yardage/goalline back. I'm thankful for what Parker has done for the Steelers, but he could have been upgraded a while ago.

 

[ajopiela]

1200 yards and 5TD are not a RB1......I think his fall from glory is more of a fantasy fall from glory. He is still a great back.....He just won't get near the endzone.

 

[Sopranos]

I have always been a fan of Parker. I got him in a Dynasty for nothing before MOST ever heard of him. He is 6th on my stacked team. I have an offer for H Ward and B Watson for him. I need help at both WR and TE. In a stat 3 RB dynasty RB's are gold but i think i should move him. Im a RB Junkie so its hard. I have LT,AD,Portis,Westy and R Grant... Its sick really

 

[Unlucky]

Just did my Steelers projections and have Parker at 1300/4 total, Mendenhall at 760/6 total. Moore at 343/1 total.

Not sure where this puts him, but it's hard to see much upside here. Tough schedule = less running as a team.

Interesting look at his splits from 2006 and 2007:

In 2006 he had 21 carries, 36 yds, and 10 TDs from inside the 5.

In 2007 those dropped to 7 carries, 10 yards, and 1 TD.

All his fault, or the O-line?

 

[kevinallen]

There are 3 key reasons why I'll avoid the running game (Parker & Mendy) for Pitt this year.

1.) The loss of Faneca. The most glaring reason for me, is the loss of one of the best run-blockers in the game. You can compare it to the loss of Hutchinson for Seattle a year ago.

2.) Bruce Arians. This guy loves to toss the ball around the field. It's not the same smash-mouth offense we're used to from Pitt.

3.) Possible RBBC. I dont see Parker just fading into the sunset, he's a helluva player when healthy. But so is Mendenhall. No one player will dominate the carries when both of these guys are 100%.

 

[Moniker]

FFLers have a short term memory and fall in to the "what have you done for me lately" category. Unfortunately for Parker, it's justified in this case. The Steelers are nowhere near the same team that they were in '06 when Parker had an outstanding year. They simply don't run the same offense as they used to, so anyone expecting '06 numbers from Parker this year will be sorely disapointed.

On the other hand, I wouldn't put Parker to pasture just yet, either. Mendenhall is a rookie and Parker already knows the offense. Parker will get more than his share of reps this year and represents awesome value if you can get him at his ADP this year in redraft leagues.

 

[Raider Nation]

In doing my offseason research, the one stat which shocked me the most was that FWP only had TWO TDs in 15 games in '07.

I didn't own him last year, so that stat escaped me until now.

 

[pollardsvision]

Hadn't seen a spotlight on Willie Parker yet, but wanted to chat about him.As I'm starting to do mocks, I'm somewhat surprised at how low Parker is going. Currently he's nestled in a tier with: Earnest GrahamLendale WhiteSelvin YoungThomas JonesAnd is going in the middle of the 4th in 12-teamers. This seems a bit wacky to me.I know they drafted Mendenhal and everyone projects him to take a lot of touches, but I don't see it. How many times do we see rookie first round picks go to teams with an established vet all pro and steal significant carries in year one? Not often.Surely he will take some carries from Parker and he won't get 300+, but this is a playoff Steelers team and they are going to keep the vet RB on the field more than the rookie. If Parker is healthy, he is going to put up numbers that should merit a lower-end RB1, say 1200/5, yet he's being drafted as a lower tier RB2.To me, he screams insane value play. What am I missing?

i like all those backs and that's exactly where FWP belongs now.1200/5. all 4 of those backs should be in that neighborhood with FWP. those ae lower tier RB2 numbers.(selvin is risky, but he's the one of that group that could blow past those numbers)for me, the down year last year has very little to do with the lower expectations. normally, he's the kind of guy i target. those undervalued b/c of low TD season (ala '04 curtis martin). mendenhall changes everything though. there's just no way to see a 300 carry campaign with TD opportunities now.

 

[tombonneau]

1200 yards and 5TD are not a RB1......I think his fall from glory is more of a fantasy fall from glory. He is still a great back.....He just won't get near the endzone.

See, this is where I'm confused. Last year in 15 games he was 1300/2 and was RB16, a top tier RB2. If his yardage drops just a bit yet he picks up a few more TDs (the single most aleatory metric in FF) he'll likely be ranked low-teens or better.His biggest downside is what it has always been -- lack of TDs. But I think the yardage will be there. And let's not forget in 2006 he had 16 TDs. It's not like he's never found the end zone.

 

[zed2283]

1200 yards and 5TD are not a RB1......I think his fall from glory is more of a fantasy fall from glory. He is still a great back.....He just won't get near the endzone.

See, this is where I'm confused. Last year in 15 games he was 1300/2 and was RB16, a top tier RB2. If his yardage drops just a bit yet he picks up a few more TDs (the single most aleatory metric in FF) he'll likely be ranked low-teens or better.His biggest downside is what it has always been -- lack of TDs. But I think the yardage will be there. And let's not forget in 2006 he had 16 TDs. It's not like he's never found the end zone.

Bill Cowher announced before '06 that Parker would get the goal line carries, and Parker produced. The difference now is the new coaching regime and philosophy. That said, I'm definitely going to target him as a great value RB2.

 

[AB in DC]

I think Parker is decent value but we all like tds in ff and Parker was terrible last year. He is not a good short yardage back and does not catch many balls out of the backfield either. Pittsburgh already like to throw the ball near the endzone (maybe out of necessity last year)

This is my concern too. I think Pittsburgh lost faith in Parker in many situations, but didn't have any other RB on the roster who could take them over. Now they do.The stats confirm that he was more valuable as a home-run threat than as a grinder. He ranked 37th out of 49 RB in Success Rate, and 39th in Value per-play. Even in his very good 2006 year, he was 35th out of 53 RBs in Success Rate, meaning that he was a real hit-or-miss player -- some very long runs, but not someone who could just move the chains.

Add in the loss of Faneca on the OL, and you're looking at more downside than upside at his ADP.

 

[BigRed]

How many times do we see rookie first round picks go to teams with an established vet all pro and steal significant carries in year one? Not often.

When the rookie and vet are RBs? VERY often. In fact almost always. Hard to say where the split will be, so I am avoiding both players.

 

[greyone]

I may be making a mistake, but i have passed on Parker everytime his name was up for que during mocks. My brain and hands will not allow me to select him. The other rbs mentioned have preferable situations.

Mewelde's little success in minny shouldn't be minimized. Only one person recognized his impact against Mendenhall and Parker. Great catching ability, some moves in the open field, 3rd down back. Im a bit confused here...are all three of these guys 3rd down backs?

 

[menobrown]

FFLers have a short term memory and fall in to the "what have you done for me lately" category. Unfortunately for Parker, it's justified in this case. The Steelers are nowhere near the same team that they were in '06 when Parker had an outstanding year. They simply don't run the same offense as they used to, so anyone expecting '06 numbers from Parker this year will be sorely disapointed.

He was leading the NFL in rushing after week 15 in this offense. The only major dropoff he had from 2006 was his TD's.