eighsse2
Footballguy
I don't know if or how other platforms do this, but on CBS, they will put a win probability % on each fantasy game, and it will change live as games go on. I tried to come up with a function to predict win probability, specifically for games that have not yet started (I really only tried to make the function mirror the results of CBS's own function, so not very scientific on my part). But I'd really like to come up with a function to mirror their live predictions too (you know, like if 4 of 8 players have already played on each side, there is less expected variability in the numbers versus the beginning of the game, not to mention one of the teams is then leading by some number of points).
Long story short, my function for beginning of game win probability, where a is the projected score for Team A, and b is the projected score for Team B, is as follows:
team A probability = a^3.5 / (a^3.5 + b^3.5)
Any mathemagicians out there with ideas for a good realtime mid-game function that takes 4 variables (each team's current score and each team's remaining projection)? Or even just a the type of mechanics the function should have, without necessarily fine-tuning the constants.
This is obviously a very inexact science no matter what. But something that is decent enough, you know?
Long story short, my function for beginning of game win probability, where a is the projected score for Team A, and b is the projected score for Team B, is as follows:
team A probability = a^3.5 / (a^3.5 + b^3.5)
Any mathemagicians out there with ideas for a good realtime mid-game function that takes 4 variables (each team's current score and each team's remaining projection)? Or even just a the type of mechanics the function should have, without necessarily fine-tuning the constants.
This is obviously a very inexact science no matter what. But something that is decent enough, you know?