I don't know if or how other platforms do this, but on CBS, they will put a win probability % on each fantasy game, and it will change live as games go on. I tried to come up with a function to predict win probability, specifically for games that *have not yet started *(I really only tried to make the function mirror the results of CBS's own function, so not very scientific on my part). But I'd really like to come up with a function to mirror their live predictions too (you know, like if 4 of 8 players have already played on each side, there is less expected variability in the numbers versus the beginning of the game, not to mention one of the teams is then leading by some number of points).

Long story short, my function for beginning of game win probability, where a is the projected score for Team A, and b is the projected score for Team B, is as follows:

team A probability = a^3.5 / (a^3.5 + b^3.5)

Any mathemagicians out there with ideas for a good realtime mid-game function that takes 4 variables (each team's current score and each team's remaining projection)? Or even just a the type of mechanics the function should have, without necessarily fine-tuning the constants.

This is obviously a very inexact science no matter what. But something that is decent enough, you know?

Seems doable in Excel. I calculate pre-game win probability by e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s)), where s is the point spread. I think I got that from the Wizard of Odds, using historical NBA data (I find NBA probability better for FF because NBA scoring frequently hits triple digits, and, scoring isn't in bunches of 3s and 7s in basketball, so it's a better fit to the range of FF scores).

I have an excel spreadsheet that takes in as input the projected points for every player on the rosters (current week plus forward-looking projections per week), finds the optimum lineup each week for each team, calculates the point spread, then figures out win probability for each game with the above formula.

*Then*, with a win probability for each game on the entire league schedule, it Monte-Carlo's the season 10,000 times and comes up with each team's odds of making the playoffs (as finishes are dependent on all the other teams' games, too, not just your own... hard to make up ground if the first place team has a cakewalk the rest of the way).

Anyway, adjusting the above for in-game stats should be rather easy, all you'd do is substitute the actual scores for the projected scores after the slate of games?