sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
I thought it might be worth examining the current depth charts, with particular emphasis on those that seem somewhat open. I'm looking for those that are somewhat beatable for mid to lower round rookies or veterans that could benefit from a change of scenery. Basically, any spots where you can extract some cheap fantasy value. I'm also hoping that this might highlight some of the most likely landing spots for the few remaining free agents that could matter (OBJ, Fuller -- injury pending, Julio, AB -- sanity pending, Darrell Williams, McKinnon, Guice?, etc.).
RB
ARI RB2 - Definition of a beatable depth chart. I'm not expecting anyone to take Conner's job as the top fantasy back, but it's probably not impossible. The injury history speaks for itself, but there's clearly a role that can yield fantasy points in the absence of Edmonds even if Conner is the picture of health. For me, Ingram is the play, and I don't think he'll cost an arm and a leg. Eno Benjamin might be worth an August roster spot in deepest dynasty leagues just in case. **Darrel Williams expected to sign**
HOU RB - Top spot is about as wide open as it gets. Easy to root for Mack, but I don't see any way that he doesn't look like a diminished version of what he was before the injury. I think Pierce is the play here, but you're probably paying up with an early 2nd rounder in rookie drafts and the equivalent of a popular rookie lottery ticket in redraft. It might be worth the price of admission, but you're paying for him. I don't love the current "free" options of Burkhead or Royce Freeman, but the depth chart is open. I could see Burkhead being somewhat serviceable, but I go after higher upside. It would peak my interest if someone like Guice found a second chance on a depth chart like this.
KC RB - Not a fan of CEH. Many others aren't, and perhaps it actually makes him a value. I like the potential of Ronald Jones as a ceiling play in redraft, but he won't come dirt cheap. As far as what's actionable, I'll take Pacheco as a late round rookie dart throw just to see if there's any drumbeat. Maybe UDFA Jerrion Ealy can make a McKinnon impersonation, but I'm not digging that deep.
ATL RB - This team is all-in on zero RB. Congrats if you decided to hold on Patterson. It looks like you're getting at least one more season where he's the back to own in the ATL backfield. There's still opportunity here. I can stomach spending a late 2nd on Allgeier in this draft class, even though I would like him more as an early 3rd. I don't hate Damien Williams as a free dart throw, but I would have said the same thing last season in Chicago.
JAX RB2 - We'll see if Etienne can hold up. Honestly, not sure where we're at with James Robinson, but my assumption is that he would be extremely limited and a shell of himself in 2022. I think the play would be 5th rounder Snoop Conner. Maybe Armstead or Sargent in a really deep dynasty, but I don't think there's enough upside there.
NO RB2 - Question marks with Kamara make this a little more intriguing than it otherwise would. Priority UDFA Abram Smith is my play here (not going against Waldman). But I don't hate Old Man Ingram or Tony Jones as freebie dart throws. Jones looked slightly interesting in the pre-season and proceeded to do nothing with his touches in the regular season. However, I didn't have eyeballs on those carries to say how bad it looked.
BAL RB- We'll see how Dobbins and Gus Edwards look off the injury. I think there might be some redraft value for Mike Davis. However, I would immediately look to sell if he does anything early. I also like Badie as a late round flier just to see if he makes any noise when Dobbins and Edwards are less than 100%.
NYG RB2 - Sounds like Saquon probably won't be around forever and another injury wouldn't be shocking. Not too excited about Breida or Brightwell's upside, but I suppose there's a case for Breida as a dart throw. Maybe park on UDFA Jashaun Corbin in August just to see if there's any noise.
PIT RB2 - This feels similar to going after the Giants RB2, but with even less potential to materialize. Obviously, the RB1 workhorse is entrenched for the long haul, so it's really an injury play based on that workload and nothing else. Maybe I'm selling Snell short, but it seems like they would have to do something if Najee went down. Is Snell really the top fantasy back in that unfortunate world?
******WR*****
BAL WR2 -- Seems like a spot for a free agent. Otherwise, Duvernay and Proche are under the radar values. I will take Duvernay, but skeptical that nothing else will be added.
CHI WR2 -- Seems like there's a big hole to be filled with a top free agent. I don't love the current options. I guess Velus Jones is the play, but I haven't yet been convinced to pay up for him in dynasty. Usually one of my leaguemates will take this one out of consideration based strictly on his draft capital. Pringle is cheap, but I think has path to relevance ended with his departure from KC. Maybe Dazz or Pettis in absurdly deep dynasty? The options aren't inspiring. Maybe I should believe more in the Velus Jones draft capital, but it just seems like we'll be seeing Boutee or Smith-Ninja here in 2023 when they decide to try giving Fields some weapons.
ARI WR2 -- can anyone unseat AJ Green on the outside while De-Hop is out? Not seeing anyone I like down the depth chart, maybe a free agent? If not, seems like there could be some redraft value for Green early in the season, but can't imagine I'll be the one pulling the trigger. Obviously, Rondale Moore will get more opportunities underneath.
IND WR2 -- I like Alec Pierce if you can get him at a good spot in the 2nd, and if you believe nothing else is coming to town. I would love to see Julio come here for one last swan song with Matt Ryan. However, the end result could be depressing to watch as a football fan. If not Julio, it could be one of the other FAs. Maybe we should dust off Paris Campbell one last time before he fades completely into obscurity? The price of admission is the cheapest it will ever be.
DAL WR2 -- Can Tolbert or James Washington do anything early when Gallup is less than 100%. I like Tolbert, but he won't be free. J-Wash is probably a redraft value just to see. You'll know right away if you can drop him. Roberson or Drummond might be UDFAs worth a mention if you want to go with a free dynasty option that only costs the roster spot.
LAR WR -- It always seems like you can count on them getting one more WR than it seems like they should need. I guess this is OBJ or bust. If bust, then I have to remind myself to bump Van Jefferson up my draft board.
ATL WR2-- Yes, Pitts and Pittman, even though he is a rookie. It still seems like one of Bryan Edwards / Zaccheus /Auden Tate / Byrd / Hodge will be a value. Tate is my free play. Easy drop if he doesn't make any noise in August.
TEN WR3 -- I think someone other than Woods or Burks will get a chance to make some noise and they'll come dirt cheap. I like Kyle Phillips late in rookie drafts. I know someone on this board is a Reggie Roberson fan as a free UDFA. I'm out on Dez. Probably out on NW-I as well.
BUF WR2/3/4 -- Gabriel Davis is the guy, but I think he's beatable. I like Shakir as a 3rd round dynasty pick. I don't even hate parking on Crowder or McKenzie just to see if something crazy happens. The dynasty prize here is too big to just concede Gabriel Davis as the WR2 without question.
KC WR -- Like Buffalo, the prize is too good not to take desperation heaves at this if you can acquire any of the pieces at a value. I like JuJu as a ceiling play in redraft, but expect him to have plenty of fans. I'll take MVS for cheap if the price is reasonable. I don't think Hardman is coming around, but give him to me if he's practically free. My actionable play is Justyn Ross late in rookie drafts just to see if he looks any healthier.
GB WR -- Obviously, Watson has the draft capital and you're paying up to get him. Doubs is the cheaper rookie. Is any rookie a great idea with this QB? Maybe there's redraft value in Lazard, Watkins, or Cobb, but on the other hand, yuck. Maybe Amari Rodgers and a year with the play book. With Rodgers at the helm, I think my play here might be Robert Tonyan.
LAC WR3 -- Can't say I'm too bullish on Palmer or Guyton. Fully expect a big time draft pick before Allen drops off in production. However, given Mike Williams injury history, you have to at least keep an eye on who the third WR is in this offense.
CLE WR2 -- David Bell, Peoples-Jones, Schwartz. One of these guys should be a value if Watson plays at all this season. The price is right on DPJ. I like Bell if you can get him in the back of the 2nd.
SF WR3 -- Worth keeping an eye on given the Deebo contract and Aiyuk roller coaster. I guess the 3rd round rookie Gray is worth a look if the price is reasonable? I can't say I know much about him.
NE WR -- Don't even want to discuss these names, but I guess that's why there might be some value to be mined here.
Others?
Not inspired enough by the rookie TE class to even dig into that, but it might be worth a look. I can say that I'm somewhat intrigued by Hayden Hurst based on what didn't happen in Cincy's TE depth chart. Tonyan is another guy available in my league's rookie/free agent draft that I might take a shot at late. Okwuegbunam was a red hot commodity for six weeks, but I think Dulcich is probably the TE property to own in Denver. Seems like they'll both limit each other's upside.
RB
ARI RB2 - Definition of a beatable depth chart. I'm not expecting anyone to take Conner's job as the top fantasy back, but it's probably not impossible. The injury history speaks for itself, but there's clearly a role that can yield fantasy points in the absence of Edmonds even if Conner is the picture of health. For me, Ingram is the play, and I don't think he'll cost an arm and a leg. Eno Benjamin might be worth an August roster spot in deepest dynasty leagues just in case. **Darrel Williams expected to sign**
HOU RB - Top spot is about as wide open as it gets. Easy to root for Mack, but I don't see any way that he doesn't look like a diminished version of what he was before the injury. I think Pierce is the play here, but you're probably paying up with an early 2nd rounder in rookie drafts and the equivalent of a popular rookie lottery ticket in redraft. It might be worth the price of admission, but you're paying for him. I don't love the current "free" options of Burkhead or Royce Freeman, but the depth chart is open. I could see Burkhead being somewhat serviceable, but I go after higher upside. It would peak my interest if someone like Guice found a second chance on a depth chart like this.
KC RB - Not a fan of CEH. Many others aren't, and perhaps it actually makes him a value. I like the potential of Ronald Jones as a ceiling play in redraft, but he won't come dirt cheap. As far as what's actionable, I'll take Pacheco as a late round rookie dart throw just to see if there's any drumbeat. Maybe UDFA Jerrion Ealy can make a McKinnon impersonation, but I'm not digging that deep.
ATL RB - This team is all-in on zero RB. Congrats if you decided to hold on Patterson. It looks like you're getting at least one more season where he's the back to own in the ATL backfield. There's still opportunity here. I can stomach spending a late 2nd on Allgeier in this draft class, even though I would like him more as an early 3rd. I don't hate Damien Williams as a free dart throw, but I would have said the same thing last season in Chicago.
JAX RB2 - We'll see if Etienne can hold up. Honestly, not sure where we're at with James Robinson, but my assumption is that he would be extremely limited and a shell of himself in 2022. I think the play would be 5th rounder Snoop Conner. Maybe Armstead or Sargent in a really deep dynasty, but I don't think there's enough upside there.
NO RB2 - Question marks with Kamara make this a little more intriguing than it otherwise would. Priority UDFA Abram Smith is my play here (not going against Waldman). But I don't hate Old Man Ingram or Tony Jones as freebie dart throws. Jones looked slightly interesting in the pre-season and proceeded to do nothing with his touches in the regular season. However, I didn't have eyeballs on those carries to say how bad it looked.
BAL RB- We'll see how Dobbins and Gus Edwards look off the injury. I think there might be some redraft value for Mike Davis. However, I would immediately look to sell if he does anything early. I also like Badie as a late round flier just to see if he makes any noise when Dobbins and Edwards are less than 100%.
NYG RB2 - Sounds like Saquon probably won't be around forever and another injury wouldn't be shocking. Not too excited about Breida or Brightwell's upside, but I suppose there's a case for Breida as a dart throw. Maybe park on UDFA Jashaun Corbin in August just to see if there's any noise.
PIT RB2 - This feels similar to going after the Giants RB2, but with even less potential to materialize. Obviously, the RB1 workhorse is entrenched for the long haul, so it's really an injury play based on that workload and nothing else. Maybe I'm selling Snell short, but it seems like they would have to do something if Najee went down. Is Snell really the top fantasy back in that unfortunate world?
******WR*****
BAL WR2 -- Seems like a spot for a free agent. Otherwise, Duvernay and Proche are under the radar values. I will take Duvernay, but skeptical that nothing else will be added.
CHI WR2 -- Seems like there's a big hole to be filled with a top free agent. I don't love the current options. I guess Velus Jones is the play, but I haven't yet been convinced to pay up for him in dynasty. Usually one of my leaguemates will take this one out of consideration based strictly on his draft capital. Pringle is cheap, but I think has path to relevance ended with his departure from KC. Maybe Dazz or Pettis in absurdly deep dynasty? The options aren't inspiring. Maybe I should believe more in the Velus Jones draft capital, but it just seems like we'll be seeing Boutee or Smith-Ninja here in 2023 when they decide to try giving Fields some weapons.
ARI WR2 -- can anyone unseat AJ Green on the outside while De-Hop is out? Not seeing anyone I like down the depth chart, maybe a free agent? If not, seems like there could be some redraft value for Green early in the season, but can't imagine I'll be the one pulling the trigger. Obviously, Rondale Moore will get more opportunities underneath.
IND WR2 -- I like Alec Pierce if you can get him at a good spot in the 2nd, and if you believe nothing else is coming to town. I would love to see Julio come here for one last swan song with Matt Ryan. However, the end result could be depressing to watch as a football fan. If not Julio, it could be one of the other FAs. Maybe we should dust off Paris Campbell one last time before he fades completely into obscurity? The price of admission is the cheapest it will ever be.
DAL WR2 -- Can Tolbert or James Washington do anything early when Gallup is less than 100%. I like Tolbert, but he won't be free. J-Wash is probably a redraft value just to see. You'll know right away if you can drop him. Roberson or Drummond might be UDFAs worth a mention if you want to go with a free dynasty option that only costs the roster spot.
LAR WR -- It always seems like you can count on them getting one more WR than it seems like they should need. I guess this is OBJ or bust. If bust, then I have to remind myself to bump Van Jefferson up my draft board.
ATL WR2-- Yes, Pitts and Pittman, even though he is a rookie. It still seems like one of Bryan Edwards / Zaccheus /Auden Tate / Byrd / Hodge will be a value. Tate is my free play. Easy drop if he doesn't make any noise in August.
TEN WR3 -- I think someone other than Woods or Burks will get a chance to make some noise and they'll come dirt cheap. I like Kyle Phillips late in rookie drafts. I know someone on this board is a Reggie Roberson fan as a free UDFA. I'm out on Dez. Probably out on NW-I as well.
BUF WR2/3/4 -- Gabriel Davis is the guy, but I think he's beatable. I like Shakir as a 3rd round dynasty pick. I don't even hate parking on Crowder or McKenzie just to see if something crazy happens. The dynasty prize here is too big to just concede Gabriel Davis as the WR2 without question.
KC WR -- Like Buffalo, the prize is too good not to take desperation heaves at this if you can acquire any of the pieces at a value. I like JuJu as a ceiling play in redraft, but expect him to have plenty of fans. I'll take MVS for cheap if the price is reasonable. I don't think Hardman is coming around, but give him to me if he's practically free. My actionable play is Justyn Ross late in rookie drafts just to see if he looks any healthier.
GB WR -- Obviously, Watson has the draft capital and you're paying up to get him. Doubs is the cheaper rookie. Is any rookie a great idea with this QB? Maybe there's redraft value in Lazard, Watkins, or Cobb, but on the other hand, yuck. Maybe Amari Rodgers and a year with the play book. With Rodgers at the helm, I think my play here might be Robert Tonyan.
LAC WR3 -- Can't say I'm too bullish on Palmer or Guyton. Fully expect a big time draft pick before Allen drops off in production. However, given Mike Williams injury history, you have to at least keep an eye on who the third WR is in this offense.
CLE WR2 -- David Bell, Peoples-Jones, Schwartz. One of these guys should be a value if Watson plays at all this season. The price is right on DPJ. I like Bell if you can get him in the back of the 2nd.
SF WR3 -- Worth keeping an eye on given the Deebo contract and Aiyuk roller coaster. I guess the 3rd round rookie Gray is worth a look if the price is reasonable? I can't say I know much about him.
NE WR -- Don't even want to discuss these names, but I guess that's why there might be some value to be mined here.
Others?
Not inspired enough by the rookie TE class to even dig into that, but it might be worth a look. I can say that I'm somewhat intrigued by Hayden Hurst based on what didn't happen in Cincy's TE depth chart. Tonyan is another guy available in my league's rookie/free agent draft that I might take a shot at late. Okwuegbunam was a red hot commodity for six weeks, but I think Dulcich is probably the TE property to own in Denver. Seems like they'll both limit each other's upside.
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