Jene Bramel
Footballguy
WINNERS
Dewayne White -- signed by Detroit
Finally gets a chance to prove himself as an every down defensive end. Showed flashes of value in run support over the past two seasons as a situational player/injury replacement with 30 solo tackles after subtracting sacks. Had already proven himself as a successful pass rusher both from the edge and when playing tackle on some third downs. Could establish himself as a solid DL2 in 2007 with 45 tackle, 10 sack upside or better.
Patrick Chukwurah -- signed by Tampa Bay
If Chukwurah gets used as an every down defensive end in the Tampa-2 system, there some interesting potential here. Chukwurah had started to establish himself as a pass rushing threat in a situational role in Denver last year. Scouting reports suggest he plays with better leverage than expected from a 250 pounder. If Kevin Carter was signed to play inside and the Bucs choose not to re-sign Simeon Rice, Chukwurah could land at RDE and be an interesting sleeper to watch.
Michael Lewis -- signed by San Francisco
No surprise here. Lewis moves from the doghouse in Philly to a starting gig in San Francisco. Despite landing in a 3-4 scheme, Lewis should hold excellent value in tackle heavy leagues unless the Niners improve their ILB corps in the draft.
Ahmad Brooks -- may have inside track at the MLB role
With Odell Thurman's return still in doubt (he can't apply for re-instatement until mid-July) and Caleb Miller not seen as a full time player by Bengal insiders, Brian Simmons release leaves one big competition at MLB. Brooks could establish himself quickly with a solid mini-camp and shut out all competitors.
James Harrison -- inherits OLB position vacated by Joey Porter
Those of you in sack heavy leagues should already be watching this guy closely. If he's available in your leagues, make him a high priority. Very solid pass rush skills and enough all around linebacker skill to make plays in other areas.
Bart Scott -- expanded blitz role with Adalius Thomas elsewhere
Scott should keep his solid tackle stats given that Thomas' replacement Jarret Johnson really isn't anything special and Ray Lewis isn't getting any rangier with age. While his sack numbers could go down with one less threat to the offensive line, the Ravens coaches have said Scott will inherit many of Thomas' blitz responsibility. Dawan Landry may see a decent bump in his statlines as well.
Honorable Mention:
Chauncey Davis -- inherits Patrick Kerney's starting spot in Atlanta
Inconsistent against the run and isn't an elite pass rush talent. Could be an interesting play against a solid matchup across from a healthy John Abraham.
Jarret Johnson -- inherits Adalius Thomas' starting spot in Baltimore
May have some value in sack heavy leagues, but won't generate anywhere near the stat lines that Thomas did.
Dontarrious Thomas -- Viking MLB?
With Napoleon Harris gone, Thomas has the inside track on the MLB job by default if Chad Greenway can't overcome injury or the issues that kept him a second teamer at WLB deep into camp in 2006.
LOSERS
Patrick Kerney -- signed by Seattle
I may be way off base here, but Kerney has always struggled without an established pass rusher opposite him. Great stats when Chuck Smith was around and looked good with John Abraham but tailed off when teams could roll coverage his way. With the inconsistent Grant Wistrom and/or Bryce Fisher opposite him in Seattle, Kerney could struggle to put up regular IDP starter numbers.
Vonnie Holliday -- re-signed by Miami
What looked like a return to the prized undertackle role and another season of big DT value is now in question after the Dolphins signed Joey Porter, presumably to play OLB in a more Capers-like 3-4. Holliday would move to 3-4 end in that scenario and would struggle to approach the sack numbers he's put up recently.
Lemar Marshall -- left competing for the WLB job
Marshall's value was already slipping quickly by mid-season 2006, but the signing of London Fletcher probably seals his fate as a questionable IDP value. He'll be competing with Rocky McIntosh to play the WLB in 2007. Even should he win the job, Fletcher will be a threat to lock up most of the tackles in the middle and won't a lock to play a three down role if Marcus Washington can recover from hip surgery.
Honorable Mention:
Keith Lewis -- may be back in a reserve role
By most accounts around here Keith Lewis is a much better all-around player than Mark Roman, but local reports suggest he'll be the odd man out after Michael Lewis was signed to play SS.
Jason Taylor -- may be re-classified as a LB
Joey Porter's signing may be the straw that pushes the depth chart to a base 3-4. Taylor, who played a stand up LB role pretty often in Saban's defense, may get thrown into the 3-4 OLB abyss of questionable and inconsistent value as a result.
INCOMPLETE
Cato June/Kawika Mitchell/Donnie Edwards
Still some plum jobs possibly available -- NE ILB, NO MLB, DET MLB among others. None of these guys got significant interest in the early FA rush, though.
Thoughts on who else may see their value change significantly in 2007?
Dewayne White -- signed by Detroit
Finally gets a chance to prove himself as an every down defensive end. Showed flashes of value in run support over the past two seasons as a situational player/injury replacement with 30 solo tackles after subtracting sacks. Had already proven himself as a successful pass rusher both from the edge and when playing tackle on some third downs. Could establish himself as a solid DL2 in 2007 with 45 tackle, 10 sack upside or better.
Patrick Chukwurah -- signed by Tampa Bay
If Chukwurah gets used as an every down defensive end in the Tampa-2 system, there some interesting potential here. Chukwurah had started to establish himself as a pass rushing threat in a situational role in Denver last year. Scouting reports suggest he plays with better leverage than expected from a 250 pounder. If Kevin Carter was signed to play inside and the Bucs choose not to re-sign Simeon Rice, Chukwurah could land at RDE and be an interesting sleeper to watch.
Michael Lewis -- signed by San Francisco
No surprise here. Lewis moves from the doghouse in Philly to a starting gig in San Francisco. Despite landing in a 3-4 scheme, Lewis should hold excellent value in tackle heavy leagues unless the Niners improve their ILB corps in the draft.
Ahmad Brooks -- may have inside track at the MLB role
With Odell Thurman's return still in doubt (he can't apply for re-instatement until mid-July) and Caleb Miller not seen as a full time player by Bengal insiders, Brian Simmons release leaves one big competition at MLB. Brooks could establish himself quickly with a solid mini-camp and shut out all competitors.
James Harrison -- inherits OLB position vacated by Joey Porter
Those of you in sack heavy leagues should already be watching this guy closely. If he's available in your leagues, make him a high priority. Very solid pass rush skills and enough all around linebacker skill to make plays in other areas.
Bart Scott -- expanded blitz role with Adalius Thomas elsewhere
Scott should keep his solid tackle stats given that Thomas' replacement Jarret Johnson really isn't anything special and Ray Lewis isn't getting any rangier with age. While his sack numbers could go down with one less threat to the offensive line, the Ravens coaches have said Scott will inherit many of Thomas' blitz responsibility. Dawan Landry may see a decent bump in his statlines as well.
Honorable Mention:
Chauncey Davis -- inherits Patrick Kerney's starting spot in Atlanta
Inconsistent against the run and isn't an elite pass rush talent. Could be an interesting play against a solid matchup across from a healthy John Abraham.
Jarret Johnson -- inherits Adalius Thomas' starting spot in Baltimore
May have some value in sack heavy leagues, but won't generate anywhere near the stat lines that Thomas did.
Dontarrious Thomas -- Viking MLB?
With Napoleon Harris gone, Thomas has the inside track on the MLB job by default if Chad Greenway can't overcome injury or the issues that kept him a second teamer at WLB deep into camp in 2006.
LOSERS
Patrick Kerney -- signed by Seattle
I may be way off base here, but Kerney has always struggled without an established pass rusher opposite him. Great stats when Chuck Smith was around and looked good with John Abraham but tailed off when teams could roll coverage his way. With the inconsistent Grant Wistrom and/or Bryce Fisher opposite him in Seattle, Kerney could struggle to put up regular IDP starter numbers.
Vonnie Holliday -- re-signed by Miami
What looked like a return to the prized undertackle role and another season of big DT value is now in question after the Dolphins signed Joey Porter, presumably to play OLB in a more Capers-like 3-4. Holliday would move to 3-4 end in that scenario and would struggle to approach the sack numbers he's put up recently.
Lemar Marshall -- left competing for the WLB job
Marshall's value was already slipping quickly by mid-season 2006, but the signing of London Fletcher probably seals his fate as a questionable IDP value. He'll be competing with Rocky McIntosh to play the WLB in 2007. Even should he win the job, Fletcher will be a threat to lock up most of the tackles in the middle and won't a lock to play a three down role if Marcus Washington can recover from hip surgery.
Honorable Mention:
Keith Lewis -- may be back in a reserve role
By most accounts around here Keith Lewis is a much better all-around player than Mark Roman, but local reports suggest he'll be the odd man out after Michael Lewis was signed to play SS.
Jason Taylor -- may be re-classified as a LB
Joey Porter's signing may be the straw that pushes the depth chart to a base 3-4. Taylor, who played a stand up LB role pretty often in Saban's defense, may get thrown into the 3-4 OLB abyss of questionable and inconsistent value as a result.
INCOMPLETE
Cato June/Kawika Mitchell/Donnie Edwards
Still some plum jobs possibly available -- NE ILB, NO MLB, DET MLB among others. None of these guys got significant interest in the early FA rush, though.
Thoughts on who else may see their value change significantly in 2007?
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