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WIS MMXI: Back to the Future Edition- Draft & Season Thread (3 Viewers)

'oso diablo said:
which offense would score more runs:a) 4 hitters with OPS of 1000, and 4 with OPS of 600orb) all 8 hitters with OPS of 800?
Click to expand...
In WIS (without knowing the player distribution from the start) I think b generally works better, but that's just generally because you don't really know how normalization will effect the outliers further out.
 
8 . 07 ( 175 ) Bogart… SKIP BY REQUEST

8 . 10 ( 178 ) DougB…. SKIP IF NOT IN THREAD ON TUESDAY ONLY

8 . 12 ( 180 ) ChemX…. OTC xx:57

8 . 13 ( 181 ) rodg12…

8 . 14 ( 182 ) Greco….

8 . 15 ( 183 ) cheese…

8 . 16 ( 184 ) SCBF…..

8 . 17 ( 185 ) belljr…

8 . 18 ( 186 ) scoobus..

8 . 19 ( 187 ) eephus…

8 . 20 ( 188 ) jfranco77

8 . 21 ( 189 ) moops….

8 . 22 ( 190 ) LB_44….

8 . 23 ( 191 ) sammy….

8 . 24 ( 192 ) TRE……

 
'oso diablo said:
if was wondering more about real-life baseball, if perhaps Bill James or his progeny had ever done such a study?
Click to expand...
This calculator attempts to optimize runs produced by a batting order with OBP and SLG as input variables. A real life model would be considerably more complex.It tends to put high OPS guys higher in the order than you'd generally expect. I used it as a toy with previous WIS teams but always tinker with the results. :nerd:

 
'Sammy3469 said:
'oso diablo said:
which offense would score more runs:a) 4 hitters with OPS of 1000, and 4 with OPS of 600orb) all 8 hitters with OPS of 800?
Click to expand...
In WIS (without knowing the player distribution from the start) I think b generally works better, but that's just generally because you don't really know how normalization will effect the outliers further out.
Click to expand...
I say A for lineup reasons.1. You can bat those hitters 1-4 which means you get more ABs at 1.000 OPS than .600 OPS.2. Since you can hit them together, you can put more of your hits together in the lineup and keep your outs together as well. This should be a slight advantage over having the same amount of outs evenly distributed through the lineup.
 
'cheese said:
'Sammy3469 said:
'oso diablo said:
which offense would score more runs:a) 4 hitters with OPS of 1000, and 4 with OPS of 600orb) all 8 hitters with OPS of 800?
Click to expand...
In WIS (without knowing the player distribution from the start) I think b generally works better, but that's just generally because you don't really know how normalization will effect the outliers further out.
Click to expand...
I say A for lineup reasons.1. You can bat those hitters 1-4 which means you get more ABs at 1.000 OPS than .600 OPS.2. Since you can hit them together, you can put more of your hits together in the lineup and keep your outs together as well. This should be a slight advantage over having the same amount of outs evenly distributed through the lineup.
Click to expand...
The calculator linked above says the optimized batting order for team A will score 0.2 runs per game more than team B (5.428 vs 5.224). That's 32 runs over the course of a season.I arbitrarily equalized OBP and SLG for the eight hitters (e.g. .5/.5, .4/.4) and assigned the pitcher's slot .15/.15. Oddly enough, the calculator said the optimized lineup for team A put one of the low OPS guys in the #3 hole. The other spots for the .600 OPS hitters were #6, #7 and #9, with the pitcher in the #8 slot :tlr:
 
'Eephus said:
'oso diablo said:
if was wondering more about real-life baseball, if perhaps Bill James or his progeny had ever done such a study?
Click to expand...
This calculator attempts to optimize runs produced by a batting order with OBP and SLG as input variables. A real life model would be considerably more complex.It tends to put high OPS guys higher in the order than you'd generally expect. I used it as a toy with previous WIS teams but always tinker with the results. :nerd:
Click to expand...
cool. thanks!according to the calculator, the mixed lineup is better, by 0.15 runs/game.

interesting that it wants me to bat the pitcher (assumed OPS of 400) in the 6 hole

edit: my assumed OBP/SLG splits were 350/450, 400/600, and 300/300

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'cheese said:
'Sammy3469 said:
'oso diablo said:
which offense would score more runs:a) 4 hitters with OPS of 1000, and 4 with OPS of 600orb) all 8 hitters with OPS of 800?
Click to expand...
In WIS (without knowing the player distribution from the start) I think b generally works better, but that's just generally because you don't really know how normalization will effect the outliers further out.
Click to expand...
I say A for lineup reasons.1. You can bat those hitters 1-4 which means you get more ABs at 1.000 OPS than .600 OPS.2. Since you can hit them together, you can put more of your hits together in the lineup and keep your outs together as well. This should be a slight advantage over having the same amount of outs evenly distributed through the lineup.
Click to expand...
That would be true if you knew everyone of the 1.000 OPS guys would in fact hit 1.000 OPS. Through WIS randomness you're generally likely to see at least one of those 1.000 OPS guys underperform. Teh other factor is a lot of those 1.000 OPS guys get a lot of walks which I've found to be less valuable than just putting the ball in play. It really depends on what makes up the 1.000...having 4 Adam Dunn's and 4 Pesky's isn't ideal.
 
if the calculator is correct, my drafting strategies for batters have been sub-optimal, as i tend to take a VBD (or RAR, if you prefer) approach. This tends to deliver more evenly spread OPSes, because i usually forego the top 1B and corner OF.

 
'oso diablo said:
if the calculator is correct, my drafting strategies for batters have been sub-optimal, as i tend to take a VBD (or RAR, if you prefer) approach. This tends to deliver more evenly spread OPSes, because i usually forego the top 1B and corner OF.
Click to expand...
the interesting thing with that calculator is that the constant OPS guys lineup have a better worst case scenario than the top heavy one.
 
'Sammy3469 said:
'cheese said:
'Sammy3469 said:
'oso diablo said:
which offense would score more runs:

a) 4 hitters with OPS of 1000, and 4 with OPS of 600

or

b) all 8 hitters with OPS of 800?
Click to expand...
In WIS (without knowing the player distribution from the start) I think b generally works better, but that's just generally because you don't really know how normalization will effect the outliers further out.
Click to expand...
I say A for lineup reasons.1. You can bat those hitters 1-4 which means you get more ABs at 1.000 OPS than .600 OPS.

2. Since you can hit them together, you can put more of your hits together in the lineup and keep your outs together as well. This should be a slight advantage over having the same amount of outs evenly distributed through the lineup.
Click to expand...
That would be true if you knew everyone of the 1.000 OPS guys would in fact hit 1.000 OPS. Through WIS randomness you're generally likely to see at least one of those 1.000 OPS guys underperform. Teh other factor is a lot of those 1.000 OPS guys get a lot of walks which I've found to be less valuable than just putting the ball in play. It really depends on what makes up the 1.000...having 4 Adam Dunn's and 4 Pesky's isn't ideal.
Click to expand...
Now you're bringing an extra variable in though. The original question seemed to be about the best way to use that OPS. The minute you assume the actual OPS itself isn't a constant, then it becomes more important to try to achieve more OPS rather than just optimize a set amount of OPS. When this is the case, I think a balanced approach is better.This is the same reason I defend Dusty Baker's awful lineups. Many times there are situations where you have a .600 OPS in the 2 hole and a .800 OPS in the 8 hole and its still a good lineup because if you flipped them the .800 guy would become a .700 guys and the .600 guy would still be a .600 guy. Call it the Ryan Hannigan rule.

Getting the OPS in the right place is never as important as getting MORE OPS, which is why these lineup calculators only make any sense if the OPS is completely constant (which of course it never is in real baseball).

 
8 . 13 ( 181 ) rodg12… OTC to xx57

8 . 14 ( 182 ) Greco….

8 . 15 ( 183 ) cheese…

8 . 16 ( 184 ) SCBF…..

8 . 17 ( 185 ) belljr…

SKIPS: Doug B, Bogart, ChemX

 
one of the reasons why i wanted to do this draft is because i thought it would help me with my regular roto league. I'm thinking that will prove true, as i've had to think more about which players are actually good at what they do. I think this will help with playing time estimations.

Also, a slow draft helps crystallize in your mind which players your gut favors.

 
I think this may actually be hurting my NFBC prep. We'll see, but I'm clouding my mind with different perceptions of players.

 
8 . 11 ( 179 ) Arsenal.. JJ Hardy SS

8 . 12 ( 180 ) ChemX…. Jhonny Peralta SS

The world's slowest mediocre SS run

8 . 13 ( 181 ) rodg12… In the thread

8 . 14 ( 182 ) Greco…. texted

8 . 15 ( 183 ) cheese… in the thread

 
8.13 - Heath Bell, RP, SD

Best values left, IMO, were in the OF. Alas, I've already filled that position out. :sigh:

Line-up

1. Victorino, CF

2. Kemp, RF

3. Cano, 2B

4. Morales, 1B

5. D. Young, LF

6.

7.

8.

9. Pitcher - ugh

Rotation

1. Liriano, LHP

2. Danks, LHP

3. A hope

4. A prayer

5. Hope/pray for rain

Bullpen

CL. Bell

 
1. OF Rajai Davis

2. 2B Martin Prado

3. 1B Miguel Cabrera

4. 3B Casey McGehee

5. OF Nick Markakis

6.

7.

8.

RHP Zack Greinke

LHP David Price

RHP Anibal Sanchez

 
8 . 16 ( 184 ) SCBF….. OTC to xx44

8 . 17 ( 185 ) belljr… sniped on Juan Pierre, seriously?

8 . 18 ( 186 ) scoobus..

8 . 19 ( 187 ) eephus…

8 . 20 ( 188 ) jfranco77

8 . 21 ( 189 ) moops….

8 . 22 ( 190 ) LB_44….

8 . 23 ( 191 ) sammy….

8 . 24 ( 192 ) TRE……

 
'Eephus said:
8 . 16 ( 184 ) SCBF….. OTC to xx448 . 17 ( 185 ) belljr… sniped on Juan Pierre, seriously?8 . 18 ( 186 ) scoobus.. 8 . 19 ( 187 ) eephus… 8 . 20 ( 188 ) jfranco77 8 . 21 ( 189 ) moops…. 8 . 22 ( 190 ) LB_44…. 8 . 23 ( 191 ) sammy…. 8 . 24 ( 192 ) TRE……
Click to expand...
For reals... :lmao:
 
need to, as my dad always says, "make hay while the sun shines". need to get more picks in here on days when the board is working.

 
I think I can go

8.17 belljr Carlos Lee OF

1b -Adrian Gonzalez

2b - Chone Figgins

3b -

SS - Jose Reyes

OF - Carlos Lee

OF -

OF -

C-

SP

Chris Carpenter

Ted Lilly

Jhoulys Chacin

RP

Brian Wilson RP

:X

 
PMed Scoobus but I have to make an online presentation at the top of the hour.

Can anybody take a one player list?

 
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