With LJ likely on board, does the 2 hole still default to SJax? (1 Viewer)

[Cool in the pocket]

With LJ's probable signing, lots of #3 owners are letting out a big sigh of relief with Gore injured. Then again some might be saying he just muddied the waters a little more. What about the 2 slot though? SJax was pretty much penciled in there without much thought during the holdout. Some might have thrown in SA and some might have believed LJ was going to be signed and ready to play regardless, but I think most had SJax as their #2. How many #2 picks are now thinking it over a little more? What if the league was a PPR league? SJax caught a ton of balls last year and I don't know too many that think he'll catch 90+ again this year. Plus I think I read that Herm was going to get LJ more involved in the passing game. He's probably their best receiver too. That might have been pre-holdout though. Strong balanced top 5 O versus deteriorating O with a likely one man show. Neither with a real legitimate backup to compete for touches (apologies to those that believe Leonard will take significant touches from SJax).

Discuss.

 

[LC512]

With LJ's probable signing, lots of #3 owners are letting out a big sigh of relief with Gore injured. Then again some might be saying he just muddied the waters a little more. What about the 2 slot though? SJax was pretty much penciled in there without much thought during the holdout. Some might have thrown in SA and some might have believed LJ was going to be signed and ready to play regardless, but I think most had SJax as their #2. How many #2 picks are now thinking it over a little more? What if the league was a PPR league? SJax caught a ton of balls last year and I don't know too many that think he'll catch 90+ again this year. Plus I think I read that Herm was going to get LJ more involved in the passing game. He's probably their best receiver too. That might have been pre-holdout though. Strong balanced top 5 O versus deteriorating O with a likely one man show. Neither with a real legitimate backup to compete for touches (apologies to those that believe Leonard will take significant touches from SJax).Discuss.

I'm #2 in non-PPR and I didn't even bat an eye. SJax all the way.

 

[Banger]

LJ was the consensus #3 before the holdout so there's no reason he wouldn't be after the holdout.

 

[pizzatyme]

I disagree with the groupthink here. One cannot ignore what has happened to the offensive line with Shields retiring. Add to that the fact that Croyle may be starting and I see a recipe for a huge bust this year.

I'm calling it now, I think LJ doesn't finish within the top 8 RBs. I'd call that a bust if you're in a 12 team league or more.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I'm not sure SJax should have been the consensus #2 pick before LJ got his contract, let alone after.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I disagree with the groupthink here. One cannot ignore what has happened to the offensive line with Shields retiring. Add to that the fact that Croyle may be starting and I see a recipe for a huge bust this year.I'm calling it now, I think LJ doesn't finish within the top 8 RBs. I'd call that a bust if you're in a 12 team league or more.

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch? Will he get most of the goal line work for the Chiefs?

 

[David Yudkin]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

 

[BroadwayG]

I've still got him at #8.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

LJ was the consensus #3 before the holdout so there's no reason he wouldn't be after the holdout.

I'm suggesting he should be in the mix for the 2 spot.

 

[AnonymousBob]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

I would also take the under. How far under is the question. Steven Jackson touched the ball 436 times last season yet why in the world do I hear so few people fearful his touches will also decrease?

 

[Austin Pearl]

With LJ's probable signing, lots of #3 owners are letting out a big sigh of relief with Gore injured. Then again some might be saying he just muddied the waters a little more. What about the 2 slot though? SJax was pretty much penciled in there without much thought during the holdout. Some might have thrown in SA and some might have believed LJ was going to be signed and ready to play regardless, but I think most had SJax as their #2. How many #2 picks are now thinking it over a little more? What if the league was a PPR league? SJax caught a ton of balls last year and I don't know too many that think he'll catch 90+ again this year. Plus I think I read that Herm was going to get LJ more involved in the passing game. He's probably their best receiver too. That might have been pre-holdout though. Strong balanced top 5 O versus deteriorating O with a likely one man show. Neither with a real legitimate backup to compete for touches (apologies to those that believe Leonard will take significant touches from SJax).Discuss.

I'm #2 in non-PPR and I didn't even bat an eye. SJax all the way.

Same Situation but I did bat my eye and I am slightly concerned that SJAX will not be the #1 or 2 RB in FF. At the time of my draft I had no other choice though.

 

[[icon]]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

I would also take the under. How far under is the question. Steven Jackson touched the ball 436 times last season yet why in the world do I hear so few people fearful his touches will also decrease?

Lemmings. A few people suggest LJ is bound to get hurt because of 400+ clarries... everyone parrots what they read so next thing you know you've got 20 people saying LJ is gonna get hurt.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

SJax touched it around 430+ times, seems likely he may not go up either.

 

[AnonymousBob]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

I would also take the under. How far under is the question. Steven Jackson touched the ball 436 times last season yet why in the world do I hear so few people fearful his touches will also decrease?

Lemmings. A few people suggest LJ is bound to get hurt because of 400+ clarries... everyone parrots what they read so next thing you know you've got 20 people saying LJ is gonna get hurt.

Some are screaming he will get hurt. Others, such as Yudkin, are (I believe) arguing he may not get hurt but that his number of touches has nowhere to go but down.

 

[One]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

I would also take the under. How far under is the question. Steven Jackson touched the ball 436 times last season yet why in the world do I hear so few people fearful his touches will also decrease?

Lemmings. A few people suggest LJ is bound to get hurt because of 400+ clarries... everyone parrots what they read so next thing you know you've got 20 people saying LJ is gonna get hurt.

Both

 

[KellysHeroes]

IN PPR; SJax >>>> LJ

Non-PPR I say their equal and u can flip a coin

 

[Austin Pearl]

I don't think either one of these backs is going to be injured. They are both beasts. How can you assume the worst when picking them so high. If I thought either one was going to get hurt I wouldn't take either one. Both backs likely lose touch totals though from last season. I think that the KC offense will not get as many chances as STL. I am just not sure that LJ won't continue to dominate the NFL. STL may have more offense but will SJAX be the main benefactor? That is impossible to predict. Slight Edge to STL line play though gives Jackson the edge in my book.

 

[Pittsburgh United]

With LJ's probable signing, lots of #3 owners are letting out a big sigh of relief with Gore injured. Then again some might be saying he just muddied the waters a little more. What about the 2 slot though? SJax was pretty much penciled in there without much thought during the holdout. Some might have thrown in SA and some might have believed LJ was going to be signed and ready to play regardless, but I think most had SJax as their #2. How many #2 picks are now thinking it over a little more? What if the league was a PPR league? SJax caught a ton of balls last year and I don't know too many that think he'll catch 90+ again this year. Plus I think I read that Herm was going to get LJ more involved in the passing game. He's probably their best receiver too. That might have been pre-holdout though. Strong balanced top 5 O versus deteriorating O with a likely one man show. Neither with a real legitimate backup to compete for touches (apologies to those that believe Leonard will take significant touches from SJax).Discuss.

I'm #2 in non-PPR and I didn't even bat an eye. SJax all the way.

Me too.

 

[huckyoda]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

I would also take the under. How far under is the question. Steven Jackson touched the ball 436 times last season yet why in the world do I hear so few people fearful his touches will also decrease?

LJ is a monster, and very underrated because of minor issues.

 

[Da Guru]

IN PPR; SJax >>>> LJNon-PPR I say their equal and u can flip a coin

That is a fair assessment! I would not be suprised to see LJ end up #2 or even #1 if LT gets hurt, nor would I be suprised in Jax did the same.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Larry Johnson touched the football 21 more times than Steven Jackson. For the entire season, 21 touches total. That's a tad over 1 touch per game. How in the world can so many people expect LJ to fall off a cliff in terms of number of touches while virtually ignoring the fact Steven Jackson, by the same logic, would ALSO be due for a decrease in production?

 

[Peak]

I don't think either one of these backs is going to be injured. They are both beasts. How can you assume the worst when picking them so high. If I thought either one was going to get hurt I wouldn't take either one. Both backs likely lose touch totals though from last season. I think that the KC offense will not get as many chances as STL. I am just not sure that LJ won't continue to dominate the NFL. STL may have more offense but will SJAX be the main benefactor? That is impossible to predict. Slight Edge to STL line play though gives Jackson the edge in my book.

I'm not worried about LJ. I'm only worried about the OLine. LJ had a patchwork OLine last year and did well. But I believe that was only because of Green at QB. I have my doubts about Croyle fitting into Green's shoes this year. This may lead to defenses loading the box and stopping the run more than usual.

 

[BroadwayG]

I don't think either one of these backs is going to be injured. They are both beasts. How can you assume the worst when picking them so high. If I thought either one was going to get hurt I wouldn't take either one. Both backs likely lose touch totals though from last season. I think that the KC offense will not get as many chances as STL. I am just not sure that LJ won't continue to dominate the NFL. STL may have more offense but will SJAX be the main benefactor? That is impossible to predict. Slight Edge to STL line play though gives Jackson the edge in my book.

I'm not worried about LJ. I'm only worried about the OLine. LJ had a patchwork OLine last year and did well. But I believe that was only because of Green at QB. I have my doubts about Croyle fitting into Green's shoes this year. This may lead to defenses loading the box and stopping the run more than usual.

Damon Huard played the majority of time behind center for the Chiefs last year.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I don't think either one of these backs is going to be injured. They are both beasts. How can you assume the worst when picking them so high. If I thought either one was going to get hurt I wouldn't take either one. Both backs likely lose touch totals though from last season. I think that the KC offense will not get as many chances as STL. I am just not sure that LJ won't continue to dominate the NFL. STL may have more offense but will SJAX be the main benefactor? That is impossible to predict. Slight Edge to STL line play though gives Jackson the edge in my book.

I'm not worried about LJ. I'm only worried about the OLine. LJ had a patchwork OLine last year and did well. But I believe that was only because of Green at QB. I have my doubts about Croyle fitting into Green's shoes this year. This may lead to defenses loading the box and stopping the run more than usual.

What would you say if I told you LJ was MORE productive when Green was out of the lineup?

 

[David Yudkin]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

I would also take the under. How far under is the question. Steven Jackson touched the ball 436 times last season yet why in the world do I hear so few people fearful his touches will also decrease?

LJ is a monster, and very underrated because of minor issues.

IMO, both LJ and S-Jax will be hard pressed to see the ball as often this year compared to last year. So to score the same output as last year, they will need to do more on a per touch basis than last year. Even if they don't, that doesn't mean that they will bomb. But I would not be surprised if both of them had 50-75 fewer touches this year whether that be due to injury, a different game plan, more rest, other weapons on offense, game conditions, etc. A guy doesn't have to get hurt to not see the ball as often.Given that there are no clear better options than Jackson or Johnson, a lot of this is being overly debated anyway as the guys behind them have question marks of their own.

 

[AnonymousBob]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

I would also take the under. How far under is the question. Steven Jackson touched the ball 436 times last season yet why in the world do I hear so few people fearful his touches will also decrease?

LJ is a monster, and very underrated because of minor issues.

IMO, both LJ and S-Jax will be hard pressed to see the ball as often this year compared to last year. So to score the same output as last year, they will need to do more on a per touch basis than last year. Even if they don't, that doesn't mean that they will bomb. But I would not be surprised if both of them had 50-75 fewer touches this year whether that be due to injury, a different game plan, more rest, other weapons on offense, game conditions, etc. A guy doesn't have to get hurt to not see the ball as often.Given that there are no clear better options than Jackson or Johnson, a lot of this is being overly debated anyway as the guys behind them have question marks of their own.

Though I like Gore and FWP.

 

[pizzatyme]

I don't think either one of these backs is going to be injured. They are both beasts. How can you assume the worst when picking them so high. If I thought either one was going to get hurt I wouldn't take either one. Both backs likely lose touch totals though from last season. I think that the KC offense will not get as many chances as STL. I am just not sure that LJ won't continue to dominate the NFL. STL may have more offense but will SJAX be the main benefactor? That is impossible to predict. Slight Edge to STL line play though gives Jackson the edge in my book.

I'm not worried about LJ. I'm only worried about the OLine. LJ had a patchwork OLine last year and did well. But I believe that was only because of Green at QB. I have my doubts about Croyle fitting into Green's shoes this year. This may lead to defenses loading the box and stopping the run more than usual.

Yep! I think LJ is due to get 360 touches. But, if he is getting stuffed on a larger percentage, then his overall numbers will go down.Who feels that KC's offense will be as good as or better this year than last? I certainly don't. They will dwell in the cellar of the West with the Raiders.Also, what good did it do to pound LJ last season? They squeaked into the playoffs.Furthermore, what effect does getting the big payday have on LJ?Just food for thought...

 

[David Yudkin]

Though I like Gore and FWP.

I don't dislike either of these two, but Gore has a bit of an injury history and has his broken hand issues while the Steelers are apparetnly migrating to more of an aerial attack with a lot less emphasis on the run. Those reasons may not be deal breakers, but IMO they would be hard to take as the consensus #3 at this point. Heck, there may not even be a consensus #3 at this point anyway, as I am leary of LJ's environment this year (potentially green QB, personnel changes on the OL, won't see the ball as much, may not be as motivated with a new contract, team could be behind and have to try to pass, Kennison and Tony G getting older, etc.)

 

[AnonymousBob]

Though I like Gore and FWP.

I don't dislike either of these two, but Gore has a bit of an injury history and has his broken hand issues while the Steelers are apparetnly migrating to more of an aerial attack with a lot less emphasis on the run. Those reasons may not be deal breakers, but IMO they would be hard to take as the consensus #3 at this point. Heck, there may not even be a consensus #3 at this point anyway, as I am leary of LJ's environment this year (potentially green QB, personnel changes on the OL, won't see the ball as much, may not be as motivated with a new contract, team could be behind and have to try to pass, Kennison and Tony G getting older, etc.)

I'm bigger on Gore than FWP but like others have said, a lot of questions pop up after LT. It could be nothing more than personal preferences at that time.The Steelers became much more of a passing team last season. I believe they finished 15th or so in passing attempts so unless you think they're going to turn into the Rams, I'm not sure how much their running game will drop.I'll take my chances with Gore, broken hand or not.

 

[Tau837]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

I agree but... so? IIRC, a 20% dropoff from LJ's numbers last year (FBG scoring) would have ranked as RB4... a 30% dropoff from LJ's numbers last year (FBG scoring) would have ranked as RB7... a 40% dropoff from LJ's numbers last year (FBG scoring) would have ranked as RB9.I'm not arguing that LJ should be drafted #2 ahead of Jackson, but whether or not he gets fewer than 457 touches this year doesn't really address the question. He had only 369 touches in 2005 and still finished as RB2.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Not touches,but Jackson has acknowledged he'll get less receptions this year, so said he has to do more with those he gets. He's been practicing tired so he can do well late in the game against tired defenses. Sorry, no link, but this is from a TV interview I saw with him.

ETA -He also said he drafted himself in an NFL charity FF League.

 

[Aggieelmore]

Yes, SJ is undoubtedly 2 and I still like Gore better at 3. Better offense, qb, easier division

 

[Banger]

I don't think either one of these backs is going to be injured. They are both beasts. How can you assume the worst when picking them so high. If I thought either one was going to get hurt I wouldn't take either one. Both backs likely lose touch totals though from last season. I think that the KC offense will not get as many chances as STL. I am just not sure that LJ won't continue to dominate the NFL. STL may have more offense but will SJAX be the main benefactor? That is impossible to predict. Slight Edge to STL line play though gives Jackson the edge in my book.

I'm not worried about LJ. I'm only worried about the OLine. LJ had a patchwork OLine last year and did well. But I believe that was only because of Green at QB. I have my doubts about Croyle fitting into Green's shoes this year. This may lead to defenses loading the box and stopping the run more than usual.

What would you say if I told you LJ was MORE productive when Green was out of the lineup?

What would you say if I told you that Green had a more difficult schedule than any QB in the NFL last year?ETA...

 

[AnonymousBob]

Not touches,but Jackson has acknowledged he'll get less receptions this year, so said he has to do more with those he gets. He's been practicing tired so he can do well late in the game against tired defenses. Sorry, no link, but this is from a TV interview I saw with him.

He averaged 9 yards per reception last season. That's one of the higher marks amongst rb's. He may match that but I don't know if I would pencil him in for doing more with each catch. So, he's going to catch the ball less and is unlikely do better with those opportunities he does receive. He had a near ungodly number of touches last season and that number is likely to go down. I understand arguments for him going #2 overall, nor do I disagree with anyone until they start proclaiming this guy is the clear cut option after LT.

 

[PatsFanCT]

How many carries do you believe LJ will receive? How many passes will he catch?

LJ touched the ball 457 times last year. I'll take the "under" on that total for 2007.

SJax touched it around 430+ times, seems likely he may not go up either.

I think it's more about how those carries end, then how they start. LJ running into a brick wall 200 times more than Jackson does will take a heavier toll on his body, and in turn, his performance.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Though I like Gore and FWP.

I don't dislike either of these two, but Gore has a bit of an injury history and has his broken hand issues while the Steelers are apparently migrating to more of an aerial attack with a lot less emphasis on the run. Those reasons may not be deal breakers, but IMO they would be hard to take as the consensus #3 at this point. Heck, there may not even be a consensus #3 at this point anyway, as I am leary of LJ's environment this year (potentially green QB, personnel changes on the OL, won't see the ball as much, may not be as motivated with a new contract, team could be behind and have to try to pass, Kennison and Tony G getting older, etc.)

2 schools of thought seem to be emerging...1. LJ is in contention for the #2 slot and,2. LJ just made the large group from 3-8 (pick your own end number) one larger for tier 1A RB's.I will agree with another poster from a different thread that suggested this may the easiest year ever to pick #1. A consensus 2 is close with SJax, but I can see the validity of saying LJ has a claim to it. The # of touches debate rages on with respect to what we'll get in year N+1, but almost everyone will agree that these touches have nowhere to go, but down. For my part, I will choose SJax as LJ simply has many more hurdles to jump. I don't see any of the top 3 repeating last years numbers (LJ's receiving totals may go up, but overall #'s flat--SJax's rushing may go up, receiving down = flat), but they have the highest floor versus the rest of the of the pack IMHO, which is what I covet in a first round pick. This is also what separates the tier 1 RB's from the tier 1A RB's for me. Can one of the guys from the tier 1A group throw up 1800 yards and 16TD's? Sure, but I'd have a hard time choosing which one with any kind of confidence.

 

[Peak]

I don't think either one of these backs is going to be injured. They are both beasts. How can you assume the worst when picking them so high. If I thought either one was going to get hurt I wouldn't take either one. Both backs likely lose touch totals though from last season. I think that the KC offense will not get as many chances as STL. I am just not sure that LJ won't continue to dominate the NFL. STL may have more offense but will SJAX be the main benefactor? That is impossible to predict. Slight Edge to STL line play though gives Jackson the edge in my book.

I'm not worried about LJ. I'm only worried about the OLine. LJ had a patchwork OLine last year and did well. But I believe that was only because of Green at QB. I have my doubts about Croyle fitting into Green's shoes this year. This may lead to defenses loading the box and stopping the run more than usual.

Damon Huard played the majority of time behind center for the Chiefs last year.

 

[bocksheesh]

Yes, SJ is undoubtedly 2 and I still like Gore better at 3. Better offense, qb, easier division

I don't put a ton of stock in the LJ will get injure due to all of last season's carries theory. But I do recognize that he has some definite hurdles to overcome - OLine, QB, etc.But one thing I'm really noticing in terms of comparing LJ to Frank Goreis early season schedule. Kansas City's schedule is rough in the first 5 games: Houston, Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, Jacksonville. Yikes. That's 4 legitimately stiff defenses.

Now, compare that to Frank Gore's first 5 games: Arizona, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Baltimore, NY Giants. Baltimore is scary, for sure. Pittsburgh, tough but not what they once were. And AZ, SEA, and NYG are all iffy on Defense.