With passing numbers increasing (1 Viewer)

[msommer]

Discusion over at the Shark pool on whether the higher passing numbers (yards mostly) from 2011 are the new normal or will regress to mean

Linky

The concensus (sort of) is that it is likely to continue to rise but from 2010 levels and that 2011 is an outlier - in any case more and more yards are being had through the air.

Does this mean that FS and CB are becoming more valuable, even if not split out? Not sure how to do the numbers on that but invite all to chime in.

 

[mlball77]

This is an interesting question. Intuitively, to me, if passing attempts remain elevated, I think that not only should the FS and CB positions be positively impacted (in a small manner), but also possibly rush LBs and DEs (more chances for sacks).

I could see this having a small negative impact on MLBs/ILBs that are mostly run-stoppers, particularly if they aren't strong in pass coverage.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think it kind of depends on what you're talking about.

if you mean real world football, then I'd probably have to agree.

but if you mean fantasy, which would be my assumption, it kind of depends on your league specs, and actually may be a bit counterintuitive.

on the surface, it would seem that more passing means more passing stats for cb/fs, and fewer rb tackles for the ilb -- which is all probably true, but think about it like this, more passes defended/tackled means greater depth of the pool at those positions and makes those guys a bit easier to replace, while the 3 down stud ilb becomes that much scarcer and more valuable, relatively speaking.

it's kind of like the 300 carry workhorse back --- more passing and rbbc might mean fewer of these guys, but that just makes the ones available that much scarcer and valuable.

 

[msommer]

Assuming that all the additional passes do not result in TDs, and assuming that overall snaps stay the same, then Kool-Aid Larry is probably right and we'll see a flattening of the curve as tackle opportunities are distributed among more people. But if teams start copying the NEP two TE offense your in the box safeties and MLBs might still get the tackles they need to stay relevant (if they can bring down the players going over the middle obviously).

Also assuming that QB accuracy and WR catch percentages stays more or less the same (although a short(er) over the middle passing game would dictate that it goes up) logically there must be more PDs to the defense, which should benefit specifically CBs and FS.

If that is the case then you can wait even longer to pick up your secondary. Particularly in leagues that score PDs same as tackles (as they should since they are equally if not more valuable to the defense)

 

[mlball77]

In my post, I was talking about positions (or player types) that would gain more, as a whole, vs. other positions (player types)... if the elevated pass attempts continues. I agree though that it will change the distribution of points within a given position, potentially (I didn't delve into that with my post). This seems like the aspect Larry was addressing with his comments about a 300 carry RB being a scarce thing and even more valuable now.

So yeah, a true stud MLB could become even more scarce, and thus, even more valuable. Or, a sack artist DE could lose some of his advantage at the position if more DE's start posting double-digit sacks each year (due to increased pass attempts around the league). -My post above was more making the case that there will be more sack possibilities for the pass rush LBs and DEs, as one example, and that they will, as a whole, see a possible increase in point production (being positively impacted).