My gut is that it's 90% likely to be moved -- and that the US is one of two or three alternatives. So maybe a 40% chance?
Yeah, it's not getting moved. Qatar sits on some of the biggest natural gas reserves in the world, too many politicians are getting greased in too many countries for then to remove it.
when all the advertisers bail because thousands of slave laborers are dying there, and no players want to play and no fans want to watch games in 120 degree death heat...then what?how does FIFA make money on an event like this where nobody wants to go and nobody wants to play and nobody wants to watch?
All the stadiums are going to be domed.

Indentured servants die all the time in the Middle East, why should hte World Cup be any different?
Sponsors won't pull out either, that's crazy talk.
The stadiums will not be domed. They are building open air stadiums.They originally planned to build 12 open air stadiums with some sort of air conditioning technology but that turned out to be bogus.
They scrapped all that and are only going to build 8 stadiums now. That is why FIFA says they can not play in Qatar in summer.
Most of the major sponsors have already issued strong public statements against Qatar, calling for a revote if the findings turn out to be true.
The last shoe to fall are the networks some of whom like Fox are going to be irate if the tournament is moved to the winter as FIFA has publicly stated has to happen.
Here are the renderings Qatar is working with GE among others to cool the stadiums, they are basically going to build the biggest air conditioners known to man.
If the World Cup is in Qatar, all the sponsors follow. You can't possibly think anything else but that would happen IMO.
That article is from 4 years ago. Much has changed since they basically won the WC bid.
The cooling technology turned out to be basically a sham and they can't play in the summer
"FIFA's secretary general has stated that the 2022 World Cup in Qatar 'will not be in June or July'.
Jerome Valcke, who has been given the task of looking at alternative dates due to the fierce heat of the summer in Qatar, says it is likely to be held sometime between November 15 and January 15.
Valcke told France Info (radio station): 'It will not be in June or July. Frankly I think it'll be played between November 15 and January 15 at the latest."
The sponsors will go where ever the WC ends up but they are already trying to put pressure on FIFA.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/08/world-cup-sponsor-sony-investigation-qatar-bid
Sponsors Adidas, Sony and Visa have called on football's governing body to deal thoroughly with allegations of bribery to secure the 2022 World Cup for Qatar, an issue that is overshadowing this week's kick-off in Brazil.
With its four-yearly showpiece event only four days away, Fifa is on the defensive, conducting an internal investigation into the decisions to hold the 2018 World Cup in Russia and the 2022 competition in Qatar. Both countries have denied any wrongdoing.
Qatar's bid attracted controversy from the outset because of the extreme summer heat during the months when the World Cup is played and the tiny country's lack of a domestic footballing tradition. If it goes ahead, the tournament is expected to be switched to a date later in the year, creating scheduling headaches for broadcasters and European football clubs.
The signs of unease from some of Fifa's paymasters will raise pressure on the body, led by 78-year-old Swiss president Sepp Blatter, to get to the bottom of the allegations and tackle underlying concerns about how it is run.
"The negative tenor of the public debate around Fifa at the moment is neither good for football nor for Fifa and its partners," said a spokesperson for Adidas, which has signed up as Fifa sponsor until 2030, extending a partnership dating back to 1970.
Britain's Sunday Times newspaper has over the last two weekends printed what it says are leaked documents showing bribes were paid to secure the event for Qatar, which Qatar denies.
Former US prosecutor Michael Garcia, who is leading Fifa's internal investigation, is due to report in July, around a week after this year's World Cup final.
A spokesperson for Visa, which has a contract as a Fifa sponsor until 2022, said the card company was monitoring the progress of the Garcia investigation.
"We expect Fifa will take the appropriate actions to respond to the report and its recommendations," it said in a statement.
Sony took a similar line, saying said it expected the allegations to be "investigated appropriately".
It is unusual for sponsors to say anything publicly on such a sensitive issue and the comments reflect concern over the knock-on effects on their image.
"This underlines that companies need to make sure that any high profile association enhances their reputation rather than damages it," said Andy Sutherden, Global Head of Sports Marketing & Sponsorship at communications firm H+K Strategies.