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Worst Case Scenario: Peyton Manning (#3) (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter Thread starter MLBrandow
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MLBrandow

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I wanted to start a forum series here of worst case scenarios on big injuries to key players. I'll start a new one every few days or so, and I'll try to keep track for anyone interested.

NOTE: THIS THREAD IS JUST PRETEND. DONT HOLY CRAP YOUR PANTS!

Okay, here's the situation:

Everyone knows Manning is a monster. Even in spite of the Week 2 loss of Reggie Wayne for the season, Manning has seen only a marginal dip in his anticipated numbers. By week 5, it's becoming pretty clear that the top 3 Fantasy QBs are interchangably Manning, Carson Palmer, and Marc Bulger.

Then comes the nightmare home game against the Titans. Manning drops back and launches a 47-yard bomber to a sailing Marvin Harrison across the endzone, and in a diving circus catch, he collides awkwardly with Adam Jones, who comes down with the ball. On top of the INT though, Harrison broke his arm.

After a mediocre 220/1/1 finish to the Titans game, IND goes into their week 6 bye week, and you start your backup QB Chris Simms. Now, Simms thusfar has been one of the surprises of the season. You knew he'd be a gem in the 12th round, but he's been averaging upwards of 250/2 a game. He drops 330/4 in a mega week 6 shootout with the Bengals.

Mid-week reports out of Indianapolis are that IND plans to lean much more on its dual-backfield of Dominic Rhodes/Joe Addai rather than hoping to make studs out of leftovers. True to their word, IND ran the ball 60% of the time, and Manning began passing almost exclusively west-coast style, feeding Rhodes and Addai.

It's week 9, and you've got a pickle. For both of the last two weeks, Simms has been outperforming Manning by about 5ppg. You just came off of consecutive losses where starting Simms would have made the difference. The playoff race is heating up, and you've got to start winning again to keep your postseason hopes in tact.

The Shark Move:

Do you bench your stud for the emerging Simms? Or do you stick with Manning because you know that offense can still dominate, and any game he might explode again?

 
Assuming the S.O.S for both is fairly even, I'm rolling the dice with Simms. He's currently outplaying him, and Indy has lost weapons.

 
If the scenario plays out exactly as described, I start Simms.However...

Mid-week reports out of Indianapolis are that IND plans to lean much more on its dual-backfield of Dominic Rhodes/Joe Addai rather than hoping to make studs out of leftovers. True to their word, IND ran the ball 60% of the time, and Manning began passing almost exclusively west-coast style, feeding Rhodes and Addai.
I don't believe this would happen. I've always felt that while Harrison and Wayne are both very good receivers, Manning makes them look good more than vice-versa. I think that Manning can and would put up numbers regardless of who he's throwing to, and if I had him on my team I'd chance my fantasy season on that belief.
 
Now.... this is grounds for the very kind of question I've been gunning for....

Manning is one hell of a coach himself. I'd have to believe that he'd recognize a situation like this and still be able to put up solid numbers with Stokley, Clark, Addai, Rhodes as receivers.

But if anyone has some great stat-lines to look at, I'd certainly be interested.

It sure is hard to bench the best QB though for a guy who is over-performing and may cool off at any point...

I'm a Bucs fan, and I know Simms will be good this year, but man, even given this set of circumstances, I'd be pretty hard-pressed to start him over Manning.

And the worst part is you know it's probably only a few PPG difference, but that's all the difference...

Thinking redraft, would anyone consider tradinng either QB for something?

Surely Manning may not get much better in this hypothetical season with his top two targets down, and Simms won't get much better either (if he can continue to stay hot), but if Manning's floor is only 5pts below Simms' ceiling...

..man that's a tough decision.

I guess, like PSL said, I might have to roll the dice with the young gunslinger....

Okay, say you have Cadillac Williams paired with Manning/Simms. How much would that play in to the start/bench dilemma?

 
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Last year, with both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on my bench, I went with David Garrard for my Championship game and he came through with 20+ points. Whenever I make moves like that they usually backfire, but this one won my championship.

 

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