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Would An Obama Endorsement Change The Political Winds Now? (1 Viewer)

Would An Obama Endorsement Change The Political Winds Now?

  • No. An endorsement now definitely wouldn't change anything.

    Votes: 4 6.3%

  • Probably Not. An endorsement now probably wouldn't change anything.

    Votes: 18 28.6%

  • On the fence

    Votes: 3 4.8%

  • Probably Yes .An endorsement now would probably change things.

    Votes: 16 25.4%

  • Yes. An endorsement now would definitely change things

    Votes: 22 34.9%
  • Total voters
    63
Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

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Staff member
Thought this was interesting with President Obama saying he won't be endorsing any candidate anytime soon.

A person close to Obama told CNN that the former president's view has not changed: He has no immediate plans to offer an endorsement of Biden -- or anyone -- as the nominating contest heads into Super Tuesday.

"We are skeptical that an endorsement coming from us could truly change the political winds right now," the person close to Obama told CNN. If Obama were to endorse Biden, the person said, there is "a very real chance it backfires."
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The article goes on to say he thinks he can better unify the party once a nominee has been chosen and I think that makes sense.

The question I have now though: Would An Obama Endorsement Change The Political Winds Now?

The question is not, "Should Obama endorse Biden?" I know there are lots of people who aren't Biden fans who would be opposed to that. I'm way more interested in hearing if people think Obama has the ability to change the political winds right now. 

 
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Yes, it would help whomever he would endorse. 

Biden would be helped probably the least because the Obama-Biden ties are already well established.

 If he endorsed Sanders, the race would be over.  Sanders wins.

If he endorsed Bloomberg, Bloomberg would be a legit player going forward.  

Klobuchar would get a major boost.  As would Warren.

 
I think so. I think you're seeing a billion dollar test marketing bet that his endorsement can, seeing Mike Bloomberg's constant use of Obama in his early ads, that is.

There's no doubt in my mind that former President Obama should be highly sought after by the Democratic bunch. His demeanor is a sharp contrast to the current occupier of the Oval Office, and stands, at least in my opinion, as a dignified reminder of what the Office of the President can be.

And I'd bet his endorsement would send the one he endorses through the roof for a time.   

 
Prudent of Obama to withold during the primary so as not put a thumb on the scale.  His endorsement of the nominee will be weightier than if his endorsed candidate doesn't get the nod.

 
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He'd be wise to sit quiet throughout the process IMO.  Hate is a hellofa motivator.  You want to get the GOP out to vote?  Associate the guy running against Trump with Obama.  That'll do it.  This question seems more interesting as it pertains to the general IMO...and it seems obvious to me that the answer would be an unquestionable "yes".

 
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It might move the needle a bit now, but I think he's got to be the one introducing the D candidate on Thursday night at the DNC in July.  I think it will take a bit of the shine off that speech if he's switched horses a day before.

 
I voted probably not because (assuming it goes to Biden) it would be a big deal for people who already support Biden, but a lot of the people who are in the Sanders wing already felt let down by Obama and it wouldn't change their opinion much.

If Obama were to somehow endorse Sanders that would certainly change things, but there's probably a better chance of him endorsing me first

 
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"We are skeptical that an endorsement coming from us could truly change the political winds right now," the person close to Obama told CNN. If Obama were to endorse Biden, the person said, there is "a very real chance it backfires."

I’m interested in what they mean by this.  Backfire, as in it would piss off progressives and cause division in the party?  Backfire, as in it would be a poor political calculation if Biden didn’t end up being the nominee? Or that it would undercut his legacy to weigh in like that?  

It would look pretty desperate, blatantly obvious that the Party is afraid of a Sanders nomination.  And why now?  Why not make such an endorsement several months ago?  It would ignite the 2016 faultlines which Obama has done a good job of avoiding up to this point.  

 
rockaction said:
I think so. I think you're seeing a billion dollar test marketing bet that his endorsement can, seeing Mike Bloomberg's constant use of Obama in his early ads, that is.

There's no doubt in my mind that former President Obama should be highly sought after by the Democratic bunch. His demeanor is a sharp contrast to the current occupier of the Oval Office, and stands, at least in my opinion, as a dignified reminder of what the Office of the President can be.

And I'd bet his endorsement would send the one he endorses through the roof for a time.   
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The only thing an endorsement would do (assuming it is not Bernie) is push Bernie's supporters over the edge as they would be screaming that the establishment is rigging the process again.  Of course I think no matter what, Bernie supporters will only really be happy supporting Bernie and another candidate will only get modest support from the Bernie crowd.  

 
If Mike drops out too, and Obama throws his support behind his old running mate, I think that would be significant.

 
ren hoek said:
"We are skeptical that an endorsement coming from us could truly change the political winds right now," the person close to Obama told CNN. If Obama were to endorse Biden, the person said, there is "a very real chance it backfires."

I’m interested in what they mean by this.  Backfire, as in it would piss off progressives and cause division in the party?  Backfire, as in it would be a poor political calculation if Biden didn’t end up being the nominee? Or that it would undercut his legacy to weigh in like that?  

It would look pretty desperate, blatantly obvious that the Party is afraid of a Sanders nomination.  And why now?  Why not make such an endorsement several months ago?  It would ignite the 2016 faultlines which Obama has done a good job of avoiding up to this point.  
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Backfire as in it's the establishment putting their fingers on the scales against Bernie, causing his supporters to sit out instead of voting for the eventual nominee I'd guess.

 
The Commish said:
He'd be wise to sit quiet throughout the process IMO.  Hate is a hellofa motivator.  You want to get the GOP out to vote?  Associate the guy running against Trump with Obama.  That'll do it.  This question seems more interesting as it pertains to the general IMO...and it seems obvious to me that the answer would be an unquestionable "yes".
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Biden is already associated with Obama.

 
ren hoek said:
"We are skeptical that an endorsement coming from us could truly change the political winds right now," the person close to Obama told CNN. If Obama were to endorse Biden, the person said, there is "a very real chance it backfires."

I’m interested in what they mean by this.  Backfire, as in it would piss off progressives and cause division in the party?  Backfire, as in it would be a poor political calculation if Biden didn’t end up being the nominee? Or that it would undercut his legacy to weigh in like that?  

It would look pretty desperate, blatantly obvious that the Party is afraid of a Sanders nomination.  And why now?  Why not make such an endorsement several months ago?  It would ignite the 2016 faultlines which Obama has done a good job of avoiding up to this point.  
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Both of the bolded, in my opinion.  

 
adonis said:
Biden is already associated with Obama.
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Right, so no real need to endorse Joe.  That leaves Mike (not gonna happen) or one of the libs.  But which one?  As many others note, better to just keep quiet until the convention.  If he supports a losing candidate now, the Republicans will be all over it in the general election.

 
I don`t think so as it seems so long ago that Obama was the POTUS.  The field is so weak so maybe if he endorsed Bloomberg with all the money Bloomberg is spending it might help.

 
Obama could help someone a lot if he embraced the politics and really leaned in for an extended time.  But he seems to dislike the political side of politics too much to do it.

 
tri-man 47 said:
Right, so no real need to endorse Joe.  That leaves Mike (not gonna happen) or one of the libs.  But which one?  As many others note, better to just keep quiet until the convention.  If he supports a losing candidate now, the Republicans will be all over it in the general election.
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Endorsing Joe today would be a vote of confidence in him as president.  It'd be a big boost.

Depending on when it's done though, it could backfire due to Obama being establishment and not allowing the process to play out without high-level meddling.  Could sour a bunch of bernie bro's.  

Odds are though, they'll be awfully sore if Bernie loses regardless.

 
Irrelevant. Of course it would help, though I have no idea if it would be decisive. But there is literally zero chance he does it until the nomination is locked up. He held off on endorsing Hillary in 2016 long after it was clear she was going to win and waited until Bernie officially dropped out.

 
Right now I would guess 99% of people expect Obama to be informally endorsing Biden, so if that is who he prefers then there is no benefit to making it formal. 

 
I don't really have my finger on the pulse of the African-American community, but it seems like they already prefer Biden and they already assume that Biden is Obama's guy. So in that context I don't think that Obama's endorsement is necessary.

If Biden were to drop out and the race was down to Sanders and Warren, then Obama's endorsement could tip the scales.

 
Joe Summer said:
I don't really have my finger on the pulse of the African-American community, but it seems like they already prefer Biden and they already assume that Biden is Obama's guy. So in that context I don't think that Obama's endorsement is necessary.

If Biden were to drop out and the race was down to Sanders and Warren, then Obama's endorsement could tip the scales.
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Bloomberg makes a point of showing himself with Obama, so I would assume his former VP doing the same would be even more effective.

 
GROOT said:
The fact that he spent 8 years with Biden and not given him the nod says alot
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I voted for Joe Biden yesterday. But if I were Bernie Sanders, I'd be hammering this exact point.

What President Obama is saying about waiting until the fall makes no sense. It's not an either / or thing. He can endorse now and then in the fall.

Obama can say all he wants about the Fall and "backfiring". But I'd be hammering this if I were Sanders. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
I voted for Joe Biden yesterday. But if I were Bernie Sanders, I'd be hammering this exact point.

What President Obama is saying about waiting until the fall makes no sense. It's not an either / or thing. He can endorse now and then in the fall.

Obama can say all he wants about the Fall and "backfiring". But I'd be hammering this if I were Sanders. 
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I think that would be a bad play by Sanders.  I think it's safe to assume that Obama prefers Biden to Sanders.  Obama just doesn't want to endorse Biden and have to deal with later endorsing Sanders if Sanders wins.  In the end, Obama will support whoever the nominee is.  If Sanders were to make a big deal about the lack of a Biden endorsement now,  he'd be putting pressure on Obama to endorse Biden early.

 
Juxtatarot said:
I think that would be a bad play by Sanders.  I think it's safe to assume that Obama prefers Biden to Sanders.  Obama just doesn't want to endorse Biden and have to deal with later endorsing Sanders if Sanders wins.  In the end, Obama will support whoever the nominee is.  If Sanders were to make a big deal about the lack of a Biden endorsement now,  he'd be putting pressure on Obama to endorse Biden early.
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I agree fully with the bolded. That's why I wouldn't put any weight on a negative for endorsing Biden now and worrying about potentially having to switch to Sanders. An endorsement in the general election is sort of obvious. Everyone knew Obama preferred Clinton to Trump. It's a given he'll support whoever the Dem is.

What's telling is it's not a given now and his silence on this is telling. I'd expect Sanders to start on this soon. Or maybe not. He might not be as skilled as I think he is. 

 
Maybe I should start a thread on this, but do people really alter their decision-making based on endorsements from other people?  

 
Joe Bryant said:
I agree fully with the bolded. That's why I wouldn't put any weight on a negative for endorsing Biden now and worrying about potentially having to switch to Sanders. An endorsement in the general election is sort of obvious. Everyone knew Obama preferred Clinton to Trump. It's a given he'll support whoever the Dem is.

What's telling is it's not a given now and his silence on this is telling. I'd expect Sanders to start on this soon. Or maybe not. He might not be as skilled as I think he is. 
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I guess I don't understand why it would be "telling".  

 
Turnout for ages 18-29 increased about 16 points from 2014 to 2018. And Bernie wasn't on those ballots.

Yeah, it's still too low but the two younger generations have the largest base numbers to draw upon. Just a couple of points makes a big difference and those voters oppose Trump 2-1.

 
From wiki:

] After Bush's convincing performance on Super Tuesday on March 8, in which he won all 16 primaries, Dole dropped out of the race, making Bush the de facto Republican nominee.[2][6] After it became clear that Bush would be the Republican nominee, President Ronald Reagan endorsed him, saying in May 1988 that "I'm going to work as hard as I can to make Vice President George Bush the next president of the United States".

 
Joe Bryant said:
Hypothetical situation. NOT A REAL QUOTE but this is what's happening. 

Reporter: "President Obama, you worked closely with Vice President Biden for 8 years when you did the job he's trying to get. You have by far the best perspective of any human on earth to judge how well he's suited for the job. Will you endorse him?"

Obama: "Nah".

I think that's telling. 
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Your original post quoted someone familiar to Obama's thinking that gave an explanation different than simply "nah" .  "Nah" in your hypothetical gives me the impression that Obama isn't endorsing him due to some reservations about Biden.   I guess you are free to believe the original explanation is wrong.  I accept it on face value and it makes logical sense to me.   

 
Juxtatarot said:
Your original post quoted someone familiar to Obama's thinking that gave an explanation different than simply "nah" .  "Nah" in your hypothetical gives me the impression that Obama isn't endorsing him due to some reservations about Biden.   I guess you are free to believe the original explanation is wrong.  I accept it on face value and it makes logical sense to me.   
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Understood. That's where we disagree. I don't think it makes sense and don't accept it on face value. 

The facts are Obama was asked to endorse Biden and he refused. Full stop. 

Some people might believe the mealy mouthed answer he gave.

If I'm in the Sanders camp, I'm hammering the facts here. :shrug:  

Personally, I hope he doesn't as I hope Biden wins the nomination. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
I think it's telling when a guy works closely with another guy for 8 years and when he's asked to endorse him he says no thanks. 
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What do you think would happen if and when he did this during the Primary process? Trump: Joe couldn't get it done and Obama had to come in and bail him out. Bernie: something something ESTABLISHMENT! 

Makes him look weak and he couldn't stand on his own two feet. 

Uncle Joe is stronger if he gets through the process without the endorsment in my mind.

O will keep his powder dry until the convention I hope. Then give one of them barnburner speeches and have us all breathing fire.  i think when you wrap the Presidential Medal of Freedom (wtih distinction!) around the man's neck it says everything you need to say. Present officeholder's decisions not withstanding. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
Understood. That's where we disagree. I don't think it makes sense and don't accept it on face value. 

The facts are Obama was asked to endorse Biden and he refused. Full stop. 

Some people might believe the mealy mouthed answer he gave.

If I'm in the Sanders camp, I'm hammering the facts here. :shrug:  

Personally, I hope he doesn't as I hope Biden wins the nomination. 
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Maybe his loyalties to the Democratic Party, the process, the citizens right to choose, the Country etc weigh in there also. We can't read the man's mind. 

 
Am I cheating when I answer this today that Obama endorsing Biden back on Monday wouldn't have changed the directions of the political winds?

As for the lack of endorsement being "telling" it is.  It is "telling" that after all of this time people still don't get that Obama above all us has undying faith in the American people and it is about the "us" rather than it is about "Obama".  

 
Much like Bloomberg, Biden has already used Obama in his ads. Once it becomes official it will be like it's always existed.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Much like Bloomberg, Biden has already used Obama in his ads. Once it becomes official it will be like it's always existed.
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Bernie is also using Obama in his ads.  So was Warren before she dropped out.

If you just watched the commercials on TV you'd think Obama was endorsing all of them.

 
Obama already selected Biden to be President if anything happened to himself. There's really no more authentic endorsement than that.

 
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