Before this year I would have said it was nuts when teams select QBs with their first round pick because it usually takes a few years for a qb to learn (aside as trade bait). If you took the entire population of first round pick QBs, I warrant less than 25% were savvy enough to be considered a "good" nfl qb within 3 years. The Mannings and Newtons and Breeses are the exceptions.
Indy is a different situation though. People, I think, are underestimating the possible severity of Peyton Manning's injury. There is no guarantee he EVER comes back from this. There is no "working" your way back from nerve damage. It either heals, or it doesn't. And from the sounds of it, it isn't healing very well if he is going and getting T-Cell treatment overseas.
Moreover, his family has a history of spinal disorders (check why his other brother stopped playing football in high school). I know the two spinal conditions are not related per se, but it points to a possible weakness genetically in the spine.
I pray that it is not the case that Manning's career is over. He was probably the greatest QB I have ever seen and I hope to see him play for years to come. But there is the real chance that it is career ending. If you listen to him carefully, he is at peace with that possibility also.
Therefore, I think it would be wise for the Colts to select Luck if they have the chance.
And no, Hoss, I dont want to "bet you" on whether or not any player's career is over.