Would you drop a valuable player to secure a win? (1 Viewer)

[zftcg]

Not really asking for advice here, since I pretty much know what I'm going to do. Just thought it would be an interesting dilemma to throw out for discussion:

Small-stakes 16-team league, top eight make the playoffs. Had a rough start but clawed my way back to 4-3, though with tiebreakers I'm still stuck in 10th place. So every week is important.

Earlier in the week, I check my match-up and realize I'm facing That Guy, the one who hasn't adjusted his lineup in a month for injuries/byes. He has a couple of each this week, so I'm heavily favored ... until Sunday morning, when I guess TG wakes up from a long slumber/returns from his trip to Antarctica/gets his computer fixed and actually picks up some replacement players. Now his lineup is full, except, oddly enough, for his kicker, where he still has Tucker on bye.

Games start and his scrubs do OK, but heading into SNF I'm still leading comfortably. My Eagles D isn't great, but Witten isn't doing much for him, until the final play of the game, where he gets a TD *and* shaves another couple points off my defensive scoring. Suddenly, my 13-point lead is down to five. Thirteen points would be a tall order for a K to make up, but five is nothing. I check the WW and determine that, of the MNF kickers, Barth is taken but Walsh is available. If he picks him up, I'll almost certainly lose. And if I pick him up, I'm guaranteed victory.

The way our WW works is that if someone starts for you, you can't drop them until the following week. But if they're on your bench, they can be dropped anytime. That means if I want to pick up Walsh, I would have to drop one of the following:

• Mariota
  
• Montgomery
  
• Ebron
  
• Latavius
  
• Coleman
  

What would you do in that situation? Every one of these guys is someone I would probably need/want to start within the next couple weeks. And I would be highly unlikely to get any of them back off the WW if I did let them go. Plus there's the chance he doesn't make a move and I win anyway. On the other hand, adding Walsh locks up the win, and getting to 5-3 would likely put me back in the playoff picture.

 

[shadyridr]

Go for the win. Drop ebron

 

[need2know]

Go for the win. Drop ebron

This.  

 

[jeaton6]

If this is dynasty then do nothing. If redraft I agree drop Ebron.

 

[BigBlue_RI]

Get the W. Make this bozo pay for poor team management. In this day and age it's virtually impossible to not be able to manage a lineup unless you just don't care.

 

[Arodin]

Even if it's dynasty play for the win, as long as you believe you could win cash by making the playoffs.

If you think your team is weak enough to be bounced before the money rounds, then maybe consider sitting on your bench talent.

But Ebron seems a fairly replaceable drop.

 

[jeaton6]

Even if it's dynasty play for the win, as long as you believe you could win cash by making the playoffs.

If you think your team is weak enough to be bounced before the money rounds, then maybe consider sitting on your bench talent.

But Ebron seems a fairly replaceable drop.

I think most would say Ebron is worth a 2nd rounder at a minimum. He's having a mini breakout this year  averaging 5/58).  I would never move a 2nd round pick to possibly pick up 1 win mid season. It's probably 50/50 if the other guy actually picks up Walsh . And it's probably 80/20 walsh scores>5 points (5 games this year he's scored 5-7 points). So to me it's  under 50% I lose. In dyno I'm rolling the dice here. This guy obviously doesn't care and probably won't even login for another week. Biggest risk you have is a competitor or Commish reaching out to him and shaming him to pick up Walsh.

 

[ghostguy123]

 Biggest risk you have is a competitor or Commish reaching out to him and shaming him to pick up Walsh.

I would if I was another team in the middle of the pack.  Easily.  I have done it a few times in the past. 

As for the decision here, I would assume that he does indeed pick up a kicker, so act accordingly.  Assuming not a dynasty, easy decision for me to take the win. 

 

[Warhogs]

If I was 6-1 or 5-2 I would take my chances.  Needing the win I would do what I could to get the win.  Injuries and such will create other options to fill that last bench spot later on for whomever you lose.

 

[ghostguy123]

If I was 6-1 or 5-2 I would take my chances.  Needing the win I would do what I could to get the win.  Injuries and such will create other options to fill that last bench spot later on for whomever you lose.

I think at 6-1 you are in line for a bye week, so not sure why that would sway your decision.  A bye is an enormous advantage.

 

[Warhogs]

I think at 6-1 you are in line for a bye week, so not sure why that would sway your decision.  A bye is an enormous advantage.

Not sure why you assume a bye with 8 teams making the playoffs?

 

[PIK95]

Pick him up!

 

[MikeHeel]

Appears Ebron is your backup TE.  Since you're still hunting for the playoffs, I'd say drop and pick up the kicker. 

But that pains me to even type it.  ;-)

 

[xenith]

Go for the win. Drop ebron

this and dont think twice

 

[ghostguy123]

Not sure why you assume a bye with 8 teams making the playoffs?

Where did I say I assume a bye?  This would not guarantee a bye,  just like his win won't guarantee him a playoff spot.

Unless he means with 8 teams there is no bye, in which case, sure, ride it out at 6-1. 

 

[xenith]

so maybe this is a minor hijack, but i have a dilemma as well

I got caught w/ montgomery in my lineup, and of course we learned too late to grab anyone from early games to fill in.  My waivers lock every player whose game has kicked off that week, whether starter or not.  my only players not already locked were adams (already in my lineup) and dixon/ravens Def on BYE.  Little bit of a loophole, but it is what it is.

so i dropped the raven D for adam thielen (picked instead of gates, witten, t.williams, or any other packer in a very uncertain game plan projection)

i'm pretty much done for at this point.  down 35 pts, with thielen the only player from either team left.  not gonna happen.

Q is, considering the loophole scenario, i can still drop thielen for another team who hasn't played yet, and just concede the loss.  i'm seriously considering snatching paul perkins.

so what do you think?  shark move?  d!ck move?  slim shady move?

 

[ldizzle]

so maybe this is a minor hijack, but i have a dilemma as well

I got caught w/ montgomery in my lineup, and of course we learned too late to grab anyone from early games to fill in.  My waivers lock every player whose game has kicked off that week, whether starter or not.  my only players not already locked were adams (already in my lineup) and dixon/ravens Def on BYE.  Little bit of a loophole, but it is what it is.

so i dropped the raven D for adam thielen (picked instead of gates, witten, t.williams, or any other packer in a very uncertain game plan projection)

i'm pretty much done for at this point.  down 35 pts, with thielen the only player from either team left.  not gonna happen.

Q is, considering the loophole scenario, i can still drop thielen for another team who hasn't played yet, and just concede the loss.  i'm seriously considering snatching paul perkins.

so what do you think?  shark move?  d!ck move?  slim shady move?

I'd do it. Shark move

 

[Warhogs]

Where did I say I assume a bye?  This would not guarantee a bye,  just like his win won't guarantee him a playoff spot.

Unless he means with 8 teams there is no bye, in which case, sure, ride it out at 6-1. 

Isn't that what you said when you said " I think at 6-1 you are in line for a bye week, so not sure why that would sway your decision.  A bye is an enormous advantage. " in the above?

I'm not sure why you had to quote me with that when I simply said if I were 6-1 or 5-2 I might take my chance and potentially lose?  

I agree that if you might be possibly risking losing a bye week in the playoffs I would want to play for the win.  If I felt pretty comfortable about my playoff chances I might be willing to risk a loss if I didn't want to lose someone.  At 4-3 I wouldn't be willing to take a chance on turning a W into a L.

 

[zftcg]

Wow, I really didn't post this looking for advice, but you guys changed my mind. I made the move. I still think it's unlikely he would have picked up Walsh, but it just wasn't worth the risk.

A couple background details: Yes, redraft league. I'm friends with the commish and the league is mostly made up of his college friends. No playoff byes. Ebron was actually my third TE (we start a WR/TE flex), but since I started Gates and CJ Fed, he was the only one I could drop. In a vacuum, I probably would have dropped one of the other two before him, but it was close enough that it was worth locking up the win. I really hated to part with Ebron, though. Early-season sleeper who I had been stashing through his injury, and his first game back seemed to validate my faith in him. What ultimately swayed me was the realization that if Quizz's foot injury keeps him out of Thursday's game, I'm going to have to drop someone to pick up a RB regardless.

 

[Hawkeye21]

Always go for the win.  Drop Ebron or Mariota and pick up Walsh for the win.

 

[JWebs85]

Go for the win. Drop ebron

 

[Insein]

Funny, a guy in my league has in Eli and LA Rams in his lineup and had Fitzpatrick on his bench. I'm up 50 so no way Bradford or whoever for Chi is saving him and Minn and Chi defense is already rostered.

Just interesting this thread pops up this week. The guy is 4-3 too on sheer dumb luck (2nd lowest points in a 12 team).

 

[huskers15]

Here's a dumb question, wouldn't Ebron be locked in your lineup since Detroit played yesterday. Or at least that's the way most of my leagues would treat this move. The only players I would be allowed to drop/pickup today would be players with teams on a bye or the two Monday night teams yet to play. If this is allowed in your league seems like a loophole.

 

[zftcg]

Here's a dumb question, wouldn't Ebron be locked in your lineup since Detroit played yesterday. Or at least that's the way most of my leagues would treat this move. The only players I would be allowed to drop/pickup today would be players with teams on a bye or the two Monday night teams yet to play. If this is allowed in your league seems like a loophole.

Varies between leagues. I mean, I guess it's a loophole, but you could argue that you haven't gained any benefit from having a guy on your bench, so you should be able to drop him. Also, consider a scenario where I had the same bench listed above, but my WR was Alshon, who was a GTD. That would mean if I didn't want to risk a collar from my WR, I'd have to pre-emptively drop Ebron for Patterson/Thielen, even though I might not even need to use them. That seems like the opposite of the loophole.

Personally, I prefer the way my league does it, but I don't think one approach is inherently more or less fair than the other.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

Update

 

[ConnSKINS26]

When you have a guy on your bench who has played already, the benefit you received is that your leaguemates couldn't pick him up and start him. You've already gotten value out of him this week by hoarding his points on your bench, so you shouldn't be able to then drop him for someone who will then score points in your lineup. At least that's how I'd rationalize it. 

It's the same reason my leagues don't allow you to start a player and then trade him (until the week's games are over). Another scenario where you're arguably benefiting from a player's value twice in the same week--first his points, then his trade value to acquire another player. 

To me you can only "use" a player once per week--either starting him, keeping his points away from others by benching him, or trading him. If that makes sense.

 

[IheartGuinness]

I would have done as others suggested. But oddly enough, depending on your league's scoring system, you probably could have done nothing and won anyway. Walsh got four points in my league. Funny game we play sometimes....

 

[CaptainJT]

I would definitely pick up the K.  One of you was going to do it and if you are the more savvy player you should do it first.  And you can drop Ebron or Mariota depending on what is available on the wire in your league. ( For some reason TE's are being hoarded in one of my leagues and it is much easier to find a serviceable QB than TE).

 

[jeaton6]

It was easy decision in redraft. In dynasty I stand by my original position that you take the risk and assume this inactive guy will continue to be inactive. The end result would have been a win for you and not losing a decent Dynasty asset to boot. 

 

[zftcg]

I would have done as others suggested. But oddly enough, depending on your league's scoring system, you probably could have done nothing and won anyway. Walsh got four points in my league. Funny game we play sometimes....

Ha, you're right! I did pick up Walsh, but it wouldn't have made a difference. On the other hand, I didn't have to sweat out the ending of an otherwise meaningless MNF game, beating myself up for not making the move and praying Minnesota didn't get another scoring chance.

Now I just have to hope losing Ebron doesn't come back to bite me.

 

[petekrum]

Ha, you're right! I did pick up Walsh, but it wouldn't have made a difference. On the other hand, I didn't have to sweat out the ending of an otherwise meaningless MNF game, beating myself up for not making the move and praying Minnesota didn't get another scoring chance.

Now I just have to hope losing Ebron doesn't come back to bite me.

If losing Ebron comes back to bite you, your team probably wasn't good enough to begin with.

 

[Hawkeye21]

If losing Ebron comes back to bite you, your team probably wasn't good enough to begin with.

Bingo

 

[zftcg]

If losing Ebron comes back to bite you, your team probably wasn't good enough to begin with.

Well, you're right. It's not that good. Whiffed on pretty much all my WR picks (Watkins, JBrown, Lockett), which is the worst mistake you can make in a 16-team, 3 WR league. I've made it to 5-3 by patching things together with duct tape and snot.

 

[zftcg]

Update (since I know you're all waiting on tenterhooks): Ebron cleared waivers. So it all worked out.

Now just have to decide if he's a better ROS value than CJ Fed. I think he probably is (though his schedule gets much tougher in the second half).

 

[whiskey7]

When you have a guy on your bench who has played already, the benefit you received is that your leaguemates couldn't pick him up and start him. You've already gotten value out of him this week by hoarding his points on your bench, so you shouldn't be able to then drop him for someone who will then score points in your lineup. At least that's how I'd rationalize it. 

It's the same reason my leagues don't allow you to start a player and then trade him (until the week's games are over). Another scenario where you're arguably benefiting from a player's value twice in the same week--first his points, then his trade value to acquire another player. 

To me you can only "use" a player once per week--either starting him, keeping his points away from others by benching him, or trading him. If that makes sense.

I am continually surprised at not only how many posts come from guys who play in leagues that don't lock players at the start of their game but also the owners who don't see the benefit of being allowed to drop a bench player (whose game time has past) for a player who has not played yet that week.  

 

[da_budman]

One thing that didnt get discussed in this scenario is league size.....  10 team league?  easy decision...drop someone....  12 teams?  hmmm ....  16 teams though? Not sure I would have dropped Ebron.......   2 factors that really matter that werent really discussed:  league size and the number of teams that make the playoffs....   One of those would lead me to decide not to make a mover (league size)  vs  half the teams making the playoffs...  tough call but I would have stood firm and hoped for the best....   Im in a similar(but not the same)  situation this week......  12 team league, half make the playoffs,  Playing the dud team who also has  bye week issues.....  Im 90% sure Im going defenseless for a week because I dont want to drop any of the players on my roster who will surely get snatched up. 

 

[da_budman]

I am continually surprised at not only how many posts come from guys who play in leagues that don't lock players at the start of their game but also the owners who don't see the benefit of being allowed to drop a bench player (whose game time has past) for a player who has not played yet that week.  

All it takes is one guy to do it a few times during the year and those rules get tightened up. 

 

[zftcg]

One thing that didnt get discussed in this scenario is league size.....  10 team league?  easy decision...drop someone....  12 teams?  hmmm ....  16 teams though? Not sure I would have dropped Ebron.......   2 factors that really matter that werent really discussed:  league size and the number of teams that make the playoffs....   One of those would lead me to decide not to make a mover (league size)  vs  half the teams making the playoffs...  tough call but I would have stood firm and hoped for the best....   Im in a similar(but not the same)  situation this week......  12 team league, half make the playoffs,  Playing the dud team who also has  bye week issues.....  Im 90% sure Im going defenseless for a week because I dont want to drop any of the players on my roster who will surely get snatched up. 

More broadly, one of the first things I think about when deciding whether to drop someone is whether I think someone else will pick them up. Now, obviously, that's not the only criterion, or else no one would ever make a post-waiver move (shades of the joke about the economist who saw a $100 bill on the ground and didn't grab it because he figured if it were real, someone else would have picked it up already). Still, it does tend to give you a good approximation of a guy's relative value. If he will definitely get snatched up, that should give you pause. Conversely, I dropped Lockett a few weeks ago, and while it was psychologically hard for me to give up on a guy I'd been so high on at the beginning of the year, the fact that he's sat there untouched on the WW ever since (and also done nothing on the field) tells me I made the right decision.

 

[whiskey7]

All it takes is one guy to do it a few times during the year and those rules get tightened up. 

I don't know about that. I think if they start the season under those rules they have to finish the season under those rules. I am generally very opposed to changing league rules during the season unless there is a very good reason and 100% league support. I am just surprised so many leagues (either intentionally or unwittingly) start the season under those rules.

 

[habsfan]

When you have a guy on your bench who has played already, the benefit you received is that your leaguemates couldn't pick him up and start him. You've already gotten value out of him this week by hoarding his points on your bench, so you shouldn't be able to then drop him for someone who will then score points in your lineup. At least that's how I'd rationalize it. 

It's the same reason my leagues don't allow you to start a player and then trade him (until the week's games are over). Another scenario where you're arguably benefiting from a player's value twice in the same week--first his points, then his trade value to acquire another player. 

To me you can only "use" a player once per week--either starting him, keeping his points away from others by benching him, or trading him. If that makes sense.

Rather than hoarding points, I see it more as an edge when it comes to speculating on "lottery ticket" players. I am in a league that allows this and before the Monday night game, I dropped Knile Davis and picked up Ka'Deem Carey. I got to see what Davis did and see what Carey did all in the same week for one roster spot.

 

[da_budman]

I don't know about that. I think if they start the season under those rules they have to finish the season under those rules. I am generally very opposed to changing league rules during the season unless there is a very good reason and 100% league support. I am just surprised so many leagues (either intentionally or unwittingly) start the season under those rules.

I agree.....  I meant tightened up the next year....No reason to change mid year just because someone has figured out how to manage their team better within the rules as written. 

 

[whiskey7]

Rather than hoarding points, I see it more as an edge when it comes to speculating on "lottery ticket" players. I am in a league that allows this and before the Monday night game, I dropped Knile Davis and picked up Ka'Deem Carey. I got to see what Davis did and see what Carey did all in the same week for one roster spot.

And that is not right, IMO.

Edge/advantage/benefit/etc...whatever people want to call it, the owner doing it gains from it. Surprises me how many people here post things to the effect "he was just on my bench so no real benefit gained by dropping him for player x..."  

 

[habsfan]

And that is not right, IMO.

Edge/advantage/benefit/etc...whatever people want to call it, the owner doing it gains from it. Surprises me how many people here post things to the effect "he was just on my bench so no real benefit gained by dropping him for player x..."  

Agreed. There's way more to FF than the points in an active line-up. Saying it's no benefit doesn't make sense.